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Denmark´s Second National Communication on Climate Change

10.1 National activities and contributions to international climate research and development programmes

The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) contributes actively to international climate research programmes, including the World Climate Research Programme.

Harmonisation of models

A main area within climate research is the numerical models of the atmosphere, i.e. weather and climate models. Efforts are directed towards harmonisation of the models for weather and climate calculations in order to achieve a uniform model for all problems with a view to enhancing the exploitation of new resarch results.

HIRLAM

DMI is engaged in a further development of its detailed regional weather forecast model HIRLAM (HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model) for weather forecasts for Denmark and Greenland, as well as coupled meteorological-oceanographic models for storm surges (natural disaster reduction) etc. One of the major current research activities within the HIRLAM project is the development of a variational technique for data assimilation.

Global models and climate simulations

Global climate modelling at DMI is currently focused on the preparation of seasonal forecasts and evaluation of future climate variability and climate change. The work on global climate models includes studying the impact of selected physical processes and climate variability. Another aspect of global modelling is related to the role of ozone as a climate gas.

An important climate modelling task has become the development and usage of a regional atmospheric climate model based on HIRLAM. This model is used for various regional climate modelling projects. The main focus is on regional aspects of anthropogenic climate change over Scandinavia, where a version with 18 km horizontal grid spacing is applied as a dynamic down-scaling tool to the most recent global coupled model simulations from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology.

Nordic Climate Centre

DMI has been selected as a focal point for a major Nordic climate modelling research effort, which is partly funded by the Nordic Council of Ministers. The scope of this project is to increase the knowledge on the interaction between clouds and radiation.

Series of climate data

DMI's elaboration of climate data series (temperature, precipitation, sea level, and others) includes homogenisation of data series. The objectives are climate monitoring and the detection of climate change etc. Further time series are needed in order to increase the understanding of the climate system and to enable an evaluation of the results of climate models. The work includes coordination of the "European North Atlantic Climatological Data Set (NACD)" project.

Solar activity

Another major area of concern is the transfer of energy from the sun to terrestrial environments, and in particular the processes which can be expected to influence weather and climate. The transfer of energy to terrestrial environments occurs via a series of processes that cause changes in the composition, state and dynamics of the Earth's atmosphere, from the upper stratosphere to the troposphere. Recent DMI investigations confirm evidence of a correlation between the temperature of the northern hemisphere and variations in solar activity. The results are important, among other things in connection with the greenhouse effect, since they may help increase the understanding of natural climate variation and hence the possibilities for identifying possible anthropogenic changes.

10.1.1 Climate relevant gases in the atmosphere

Ozone

Ozone is a greenhouse gas, and its relative contribution to the greenhouse effect is about (10%). The total column of ozone is measured daily in Copenhagen as well as in Kangerlussuaq and Pituffik, Greenland. The height distribution of ozone is measured once a week in Ittoqqortoormiit, Greenland. The total column ozone trend is about -0.6% per year in Copenhagen and Kangerlussuaq, -0.8% per year in Ittoqqoormiit, and -1.0% per year in Pituffik. Ozone trends and ozone's greenhouse effect variy with height, however, and it is presently difficult to estimate the effects of ozone changes on climate.

DMI's activities in the troposphere and stratosphere include ozone monitoring and research. DMI monitors the ozone layer and measures ultraviolet radiation in Greenland and Denmark in collaboration with research institutes in other European countries and the USA. DMI also participates in a series of international projects studying the ozone balance and ozone-depleting processes and in a Nordic climate research project called "Ozone as a climate gas". The aim of the latter project is to investigate how longterm changes in atmospheric ozone may affect the climate of the Earth. The project consists of a) ozone soundings and analysis of the height profiles in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, b) analysis of the large scale ozone distribution using satellite observations, c) modelling of ozone distributions and changes, d) calculations of change in radiative forcing in the troposphere due to changes in ozone distribution, and e) Global Climate Model studies of the impact on climate of tropospheric ozone changes.

DMI also collaborates with eleven other West European national meteorological institutes in the European Climate Support Network (ECSN) in promoting more effective collaboration in the field of climate monitoring, research and prediction.

10.1.2 National activities and contributions to international measuring and monitoring systems

DMI contributes to climate monitoring within the WMO-coordinated observation programmes (World Weather Watch and the World Climate Data Programme). The institute has also been involved in the planning of a global Network for Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC), and one of the observatories in Greenland will be part of the NDSC.

10.1. 3 Data centres and data banks

Meteorological data are filed in the DMI climate data base. Observations from several Danish stations are available on electronic media back to 1872, while sea level observations are available back to 1890, and sea surface temperatures back to 1931. About 20,000 observations are added daily. At the end of 1996 the database held about 80 million observations.

Besides the meteorological parameters, measurements are also made of solar radiation, sea level at 14 stations in Denmark, and ozone soundings and ground based spectroscopic equipment in Greenland.

The North Atlantic Climatological Data set (NACD) was a coproject between nine Northwest European meteorological institutes wherein DMI has co-ordinated the work of collecting monthly climatic data from 9 northwest European countries. The data set was published in 1996, and will soon be followed by another data set, the WASA data set, which consists of pressure observations from a large number of stations having homogenous records back to the end of the previous century. This project is also coordinated by DMI, and is funded by the European Commission.

Regarding the Greenland Ice Core Project, GRIP, reference is made to the first national communication.

10.2 The socio-economic costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Denmark

While the cost of reducing CO₂ emissions in the energy sector in Denmark has been investigated in detail for a number of years the costs of reducing the other greenhouse gases (CH₄ and N₂O) and the possibilities for reducing greenhouse gases in the other sectors (i.e. agriculture, transport, industry, domestic waste and forestry) have only recently been initiated.

The Danish EPA together with Risø National Laboratory and the National Environmental Research Institute carried out a project on these issues in 1996.

The purpose of the project was

• To calculate the national economic costs related to a number of options for reducing Danish greenhouse gas emissions (CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O) by using the same methodology for all the important sectors in the economy, i.e. energy, agriculture, transport, industry, domestic waste and forestry.

• To compare the cost-efficiency of these options not only within the individual sectors but also across the sectoral boundaries to achieve an overall view of the reduction possibilities in society and the associated costs.

The main issues addressed were:

• Fine tuning of the baseline

• Development of a reduction cost curve for energy. Using the latest Danish energy action plan Energy 21 as a basis the reduction cost curve for the energy sector was established by decomposing the plan into a number of mutual exclusive option categories. The cost curve was subsequently used as a reference for intersectoral comparisons.

• Identification of a number of options (technologies or policies and measures) that significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The options selected within the sectors; energy, agriculture, transport and domestic waste. The industrial sector and forestry was treated in a more superficial way. The selected options were evaluated with regard to reduction potential and associated costs.

• Development of a partial cost curve across the individual sectors. This was done using the cost curve for the energy sector as a starting point and taking into account the interdependencies among the sectors, thereby obtaining a cross-sectoral view of reduction possibilities and associated costs.

The study identifies a range of "no-regret" and "low-regret" options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in different sectors. Implementation of these measures will make it possible to substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

10.3 Technology research and development

Danish research and development work on reduction technologies for greenhouse gases is mainly related to the energy sector.

The total cost of Danish energy research and development amounts to USD 86 - 100 million per year. The greater share of this is used on technologies for increasing efficiency in energy conversion, improving energy efficiency in end use, and developing technologies using fuels which produce less greenhouse gases - particularly technologies using renewable energy. Areas where Denmark has a strong international position include exploitation of wind energy and biomass, energy efficient utilisation of fossil fuels and combined heat and power technologies.

Examples of subjects covered by Danish research projects are:

• Improvement of the design basis for windmills.
• Integration of windmills in the electricity system.
• Technologies for combustion of biomass with high efficiency and low environmental impact. Special emphasis is placed on combined heat and power plants with high electricity efficiency.
• Technologies for energy production based on gasification of organic waste from farming, industry and households.
• Technologies for decreasing methane release from natural gas-fired lean burn motors.
• Solid oxide fuel cells with high efficiencies.
• High efficiency converters for photovoltaic plants.
• Superconductors and super conducting cables.
• CFC-free pipes for district heating systems.
• Low energy windows.
• Solar walls.
• Energy efficient pumps.
• Technology for energy-efficient cooling in industry.

Most of the projects are carried out in collaboration between industry and research centres - often with strong international links.

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