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Denmark´s Second National Communication on Climate Change

5.1 Carbon dioxide, CO₂

The Danish Government's target is to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from the energy consuming sectors by 20% by the year 2005 as compared to 1988. Besides, the Government is working towards an international agreement on a 50% reduction of CO₂ emissions by 2030, compared with 1990.

The new Danish energy action plan Energy 21 launched in April 1996 confirms and maintains Denmark's national objectives as mentioned above and contains a number of new or revised measures. By following the plan, it is possible to reach the 2005 reduction target. In Chapter 6, a detailed presentation of the plan is given.

In addition to the plan, the Government has decided to work for an annual increase in the use of renewable energy by 1%, averagely, until 2030. This implies that renewable energy will constitute approx. 35% of the gross energy consumption in 2030.

Lately, the Government has announced a coal stop, implying that new capacity in the power sector based on coal will not be permitted.

5.1.1 Energy policy measures of relevance to the limitation of greenhouse gas emissions

Danish energy policy 1976 - 88

Danish policies regarding limitation of the environmental impact of the use of energy are rooted in many years of active national policies on energy and the environment.

Energy plans

The first national plan from 1976 together with further development of the policies during the 1980s resulted in major restructuring of the energy system in Denmark. The implemented policies included:

• Conversion of power plants from oil to coal.
• Development of oil and natural gas fields in the North Sea.
• Construction of a national gas distribution network.
• Massive change of heat supply from individual oil furnaces to district heating and natural gas.
• Elimination of oil used for district heating in favour of local resources (straw, wood, waste) and natural gas.
• Expansion of combined heat and power systems in order to increase total system efficiency.
• Development and implementation of renewable energy sources such as wind, biomass and solar energy, as well as waste incineration and biogas based on recycling of organic waste.
• Comprehensive energy savings programmes in the industrial and residential sectors.
• Strengthening of standards for new buildings
• Increased research and development on energy technologies.

As a result, total primary energy consumption was stable, despite substantial growth in all economic sectors. In parallel, the environmental impact of energy use was reduced substantially as a direct result of the changes in the energy system, as well as by implementation of emission standards, emission quotas and other regulations.

Nuclear power

In 1985, it was decided not to use nuclear power in Denmark. This decision was reflected in the energy action plans as well.

Danish energy policy since 1988

In the late 1980s, focus gradually shifted from considerations in security of supply, minimisation of energy service costs and local environmental effects to broader environmental considerations, notably the goal of achieving long-term sustainable development, on a national as well as global level.

Plan of Action on Environment and Development

In 1988, the Danish Government presented its Plan of Action on Environment and Development, as a follow-up of the recommendations set out in the report from the World Commission on Environment and Development, the Brundtland Report, and in the United Nations' Environmental Perspective to the year 2000. This action plan set out the targets to be reached and the initiatives to be implemented in all sectors in order to obtain sustainable development.

Energy 2000

The Energy Action Plan, Energy 2000, followed in 1990 based on a political agreement of 20 March 1990. It introduced the goal of sustainable development in the energy sector and formulated the national objective of a 20 % reduction in CO₂ emissions by 2005 compared to 1988. Energy 2000 focused on savings in energy consumption, increased efficiency of the supply system, conversion to cleaner sources of energy and on research and development.

Energy 2000 - follow-up

These plans have been followed up through political agreements and legislation. The Energy 2000 - follow-up from 1993 contained a review of trends and policies together with a number of further initiatives.

The most important initiatives during the period 1990 - 95 are summarized in Box 5.1.

Discussion paper

Prior to the new energy action plan, Energy 21, a discussion paper, Denmark's Energy Futures, was published in December 1995. This paper contained technical analyses of future scenarios for energy consumption and supply in Denmark.

At the same time, the Government presented a general Nature and Environment Policy giving an overview of the Danish efforts for protection of the environment. This futher framed the principles of sustainable development and ecological space.

Box 5.1. The most important initiatives contained in the Energy 2000 - follow-up from 1993.

Energy 21

The new energy action plan, Energy 21, deals with international market conditions and long-term environmental aspects, as the overall challenges to the energy sector. The major environmental challenge is to achieve a convergence of emissions of industrialised countries to a level that would be globally sustainable. Without such a convergence the prospects for expecting the rest of the world to respect the limits of global environmental space will be very meagre.

In connection with the approval of the action plan, the Parliament decided to work for an international agreement on a 50% reduction of CO₂ emissions from industrialised countries by 2030, compared with 1990 levels. Energy 21 consequently aims at fulfilling this goal. Such an agreement could be consistent with a global scenario that achieves stabilisation of CO₂ concentration at 450 ppmv, see figure 5.1.  

Figure 5.1. Global CO₂ emission scenario of the Danish Energy Agency that achieves stabilisation at 450 ppmv. Global CO₂ emission scenario of the Danish Energy Agency that achieves stabilisation at 450 ppmv. Global CO₂ emission scenario of the Danish Energy Agency that achieves stabilisation at 450 ppmv.

The plan sets out the framework for a number of initiatives focusing especially on reducing the requirements for resources and the impact on the environment from the energy sector. National "yardsticks" regarding improvement of energy intensity and enhanced use of renewables are formulated.

Besides, the Parliament decided to work for an annual increase in the share of renewable energy by 1% until 2030. This implies that renewable energy will constitute approx. 35% of the gross energy consumption in 2030.

In March 1997, the Government announced a coal stop, implying that new capacity in the power sector based on coal will not be permitted.

Energy 21 introduces a number of new measures in the energy sector. A description of these energy related legislation and measures is provided in Annex F together with a full list of earlier measures.

CO₂ reduction targets

In May 1990 the Government adopted the Transport Action Plan, which aims at stabilising CO₂ emissions by 2005 and a 25% reduction by 2030, compared to 1988 level for this sector.

The combined effects of Energy 2000 and the Transport Action Plan were expected to be more than a 20% reduction in emissions from energy use in 2005. This target was subsequently approved by Parliament.

The target was defined in terms of emission values from energy use in 1988 corrected for variations in electricity exchange and outside temperature, including international air traffic, but excluding bunkers and flaring, and entailed a reduction of 12,200 Gg CO₂ out of a total of 61,200 Gg.

Internationally, Denmark has committed itself to stabilise emissions at the 1990 level by 2000 within the framework of the Climate Convention, and as a contribution to the overall stabilisation by the year 2000 for the countries of the EU to achieve a 5% reduction in 2000 compared with 1990.

As previously mentioned, the Government is working towards an international agreement on a 50% reduction of CO₂ emissions by 2030 compared with 1990 levels.

5.1.2 Transport

Targets for CO₂ emissions

The Danish transport sector contributes approx. 20% of the total Danish CO₂ emissions from the energy consuming sectors.

The reduction in CO₂ emissions must as far as possible be based on the most cost effective initiatives.

In 1990, the Danish Government presented a Transport Action Plan, which laid down the present CO₂ emission target for the transport sector. The target is to stabilise CO₂ emissions at the 1988 level by the year 2005, and reduce it by 25% up to 2030.

The Transport Action Plan was followed up in December 1993 by Transport 2005 which reviewed the implementation of the energy and environmental targets. It was emphasised that fulfilment of the target for CO₂ emissions while continuing to provide an efficient and flexible transport system to the public and commercial sector is the greatest challenge of national transport policy in the years to come.

In immediate continuation of Transport 2005, the Danish Ministry of Transport therefore initiated further clarifying work aiming to at identifying effective policies and measures for reducing CO₂ emissions in the transport sector.

The Danish Parliament has confirmed the CO₂ emission targets for the transport sector on several occasions, most recently in February 1996.

It is Danish policy that the present CO₂ emission targets in the transport sector must be met. In future, further follow-up will be carried out at regular intervals in order to ensure among other things a reasonable balance between the efforts in the transport sector and those in other energy consuming sectors. At the same time, the targets for the period up to 2030 must be seen as interim, as these must be determined in the context of future assessments of the latitude allowed by ecological considerations.

Future environmental impact of the transport sector

It has not been possible to slow down the increase in CO₂ emissions from the transport sector and as a consequence of rapid growth in traffic volume in the first half of the 1990s CO₂ emissions in 1995 were well above the level in 1988.

As shown in Fig. 5.2, CO₂ emissions will have to be reduced by between 7 and 20% by the year 2005 if the target of stabilising CO₂ emissions at the 1988 level is to be met. Correspondingly, CO₂ emissions in 2030 will have to be reduced by 30 to 40% by the year 2030 if a reduction of 25% compared to the 1988 level is to be achieved.

Fig. 5.2. Reductions in CO2 emissions required by 2005 and 2030 to meet reduction targets given various economic scenarios.

The basic premise of the projections should be the moderate growth scenario. If the growth turns out to be higher, further reductions may be achieved, primarily through greater use of economic instruments.

A premise of Danish transport policy is the continued provision of an efficient and flexible transport system to the public and commercial sector. Passenger vehicle traffic will therefore continue to account for most of the passenger and goods transport. The Transport Action Plan contributes towards making cars more environmentally sound, and towards limiting the growth of the overall volume of road traffic.

Transport costs

It is the Danish Government's opinion that the total social costs, including the environmental costs of transport, should be integrated in the pricing of transport. To the extent that costs are not reflected in the price of the transport mode in question, they may - as a matter of principle - be incorporated in the form of taxes.

It is estimated that it is possible to meet the target of stabilising the level of carbon dioxide emissions at the 1988 level by 2005 if the price of petrol rises roughly in tandem with the improvements in energy efficiency of new cars.

Assuming continued gains in the energy efficiency of new cars, the price of petrol must rise if the principle of unchanged fuel costs per kilometre for new cars is to be followed. At the same time, it is assumed that the price of diesel will follow the rise in petrol prices.

To the extent that increases are not realised through increases in producers prices, other means to influence the variable transport costs will be considered. The rate of possible tax increases will be adjusted to the level of the prices of petrol and diesel in our neighbouring countries, so as to avoid undesirable cross-border trade. In this connection, Denmark will work on raising the minimum rates for fuel taxes in accordance with the EU Mineral Oil Directive. Furthermore, the Danish Government will work actively to create a coordinated policy in the area together with our neighbouring countries.

Improved energy efficiency

Even without any specific action taken, there will be gains in energy efficiency due to ongoing R&D in carproduction. It is thus assumed that new petrol powered cars drive an average of 14 kilometres per litre in 1995 and 15 kilometres per litre by 2005. Some uncertainty is involved in calculating the energy efficiency of new cars, however.

The Danish Government proposes to enter into specific agreements at the EU level with car manufacturers on limiting the CO₂ emissions per car. It is assumed that this will result in a reduction of at least 25% compared to the 1990 level by 2005. Consequent to upon the assumption that the price of petrol will follow the average gain in energy efficiency, it is futher assumed that the rise in energy efficiency at the EU level will be reflected fully in the average energy efficiency of new cars in Denmark at a level of 18 kilometres per litre by the year 2005.

An average energy efficiency of new cars of 20 kilometres per litre is to be achieved by further specific decisions on the use of financial incentives and information campaigns on the fuel efficiency of cars. From July 1997, the base for annual road tax for all new cars has shifted from weight to energy efficiency. However an analysis based on international comparisons indicates that it is relatively difficult to change buying habits in connection with car purchases by differentiating the consumer prices on the basis of energy efficiency. The goal - 20 kilometres per litre - may therefore turn out to be ambitious.

An energy efficiency of 20 kilometres per litre for new cars entails an increase in energy efficiency by 2005 of approx. 30% (20 km per l vs. 15 km per l). Only part of this improved energy efficiency will be effective for the car fleet as a whole by 2005. Considering the expectations of a relatively high level of car sales, together with the fact that new cars are driven more than older cars, it is assumed that 30 to 35 % of the increase in energy efficiency for new cars by 2005 effect a rise in average energy efficiency of 11% for the car fleet as a whole.

As a consequence of higher fuel efficiency and the correspondingly lower costs of owning and driving a car, the population will drive more. On the basis of various surveys it is assumed that every time the energy costs drop by 1% the car travel activity rises by 0.4%. The expected 11% rise in energy efficiency for the car fleet as a whole thus entails a 4% rise in car travel activity. When this rise in car travel activity is combined with the 11% gain in average fuel efficiency, the total energy savings on passenger car transport will be approx. 6 to 7%. As passenger cars are responsible for approx. 55% of emissions, the total reduction in CO₂ emissions from the transport sector will be 3 to 4%. The total long-term effect is estimated to be approx. 9%, and the rest of the increase (from 3 - 4% to 9%) is expected to become effective mainly during the period 2005 to 2010.

Danish fuel prices up to 2005

The Energy Agency assumes that producers' prices for diesel and petrol will in relation to 1996 lead to an increase in consumer prices of approx. 25% by 2005 compared with 1996 prices. Besides this increase, the use of financial incentives to lower increase in car travel activity is assumed to entail a futher increase in the fuel prices of about DKK 0.50 (USD 0.07).

On the basis of various surveys it is assumed that when the energy price rises by 1%, the fuel consumption for passenger cars falls by 0.4 %, and for vans and lorries by 0.2%.

The expected increase in fuel prices thus entails a fall in fuel consumption of approx. 11% for passenger cars and 6 to 7% for van and lorry transport. As passenger cars are responsible for approx. 55% of the emissions, and vans and lorries are responsible for approx. 35%, this means a reduction in total emissions of approx. 8%.

Other areas for special efforts up to 2005

The other policy areas singled out for special efforts include:

• Physical planning
• Research and development
• Promotion of energy efficient behaviour, including energy efficient driving
• Promotion of a reduction of the transport need of households and companies
• Promotion of bicycle transport
• Promotion of energy efficient public transport
• Promotion of coastal sea transport

• Promotion of optimisation of environmentally sound goods transport

It is estimated that these areas combined can yield CO₂ emission reductions of up to 4%.

Total effect

The estimated total effect of the above mentioned policies and influences a reduction in CO₂ emissions of about 15% in comparison to the expected emission level by 2005, the net effect being stabilisation at the 1988 level.

5.1.3 Agriculture

The main areas of agriculture affecting CO₂ emissions are field burning of straw and the production of non-food crops. Field burning of straw has been prohibited in Denmark for several years. As a consequence, straw is increasingly ploughed into the ground or used as a fuel. This increases carbon accumulation in the soil and reduces the emissions of CO₂ and N₂O, while using the straw as a fuel reduces emissions from fossil fuel combustion.

The growth of non-food crops on about 40,000 ha together with the use of part of these non-food crops for energy purposes (biofuels) replaces fossil fuels and reduces CO₂ emissions.

5.1.4 Land use change and forestry

Forestry.

The majority of forests in Denmark are reserved for multiple use forestry and are protected against deforestation by the Forest Act (revised May 1996). The forest area has been increasing steadily during this century and the Danish Parliament recently decided to double the forest area over the next of 80 - 100 years.

Achievement of this objective necessitates an afforestation rate of 40 km² per year through public and private initiatives. According to the latest revision of the Forest Act in 1996, new and improved incentive structures will be put in place to promote private afforestation on agricultural lands. It is estimated that these new incentives will ensure a sufficient rate of afforestation.

Regarding forestry, it could be mentioned that an increasing amount of wood chips is expected to be used in the energy production.

5.2 Methane, CH₄

Agriculture

Existing policies have secured the construction of 20 large community size biogas plants that produce electricity and heat for villages or towns, thereby simultaneously reducing CH₄ emissions and emissions from fossil fuel. The Energy 21 foresees a further expansion in the number of such plants., leading to a significant reduction in CH₄ emissions from the storage of manure.

Waste management

The main objectives in the field of waste and recycling are to reduce the quantity of waste production, to minimise the environmental impact of waste disposal, and to make use of the resources contained in waste.

The general order of priorities is as follows:

1. Cleaner technologies

2. Recycling

3. Incineration with energy use

4. Landfilling

The objectives and the initiatives required are described in the Danish Government's Action Plan for Waste and Recycling 1993 - 1997.

The plan introduces a series of initiatives reflecting the above priorities, based on the overall principle that all wastes should be managed in a manner which is safe from the point of view of occupational health.

In 1995 the total waste production was about 11.2 million tonnes. The objective is that about 50% of the total amount of wastes generated in the year 2000 should be recycled. The remainder should primarily be incinerated and landfilling should be minimised.

The aim is to incinerate all combustible wastes which is not recycled, and which does not present particular incineration problems, with use being made of the energy produced.

In connection with incineration, the energy content of non-recyclable wastes should be used effectively like other biofuels, since most of the waste is CO₂-neutral and therefore causes lower CO₂ emissions than burning of fossil fuels.

Landfilling of combustible waste has been prohibited from January 1997 in order to reduce landfill gas emissions (CH₄).

The emission factors have partly been calculated on the basis of the carbon content of the different types of waste and partly on the assumption that 50% of the carbon is converted to CH₄ and that 10% of the Danish CH₄ is converted to CO₂ by bacteria.

Environmental Impacts

Recycling implies a number of significant elements of raw materials and energy saving.

Organic waste: In the case of biogas and nutrient effluent production or composting of organic wastes, the following environmental aspects of CO₂ emissions should be taken into consideration in connection with incineration or landfilling:

• Compost/nutrient effluent may replace imported fertilisers, the production of which is energy-intensive
• Energy in connection with biogas production and incineration can be utilised, whereas by composting energy is consumed
• CO₂ emissions extend over longer periods and will be slightly lower with biogas production and composting than with incineration, since part of the slowly degradable carbon remains in the compost. Addition of compost to cultivated soils slowly increases the humus content of the soil.
• Avoiding landfilling of organic waste results in lower emissions of CH_4..

In 1995, 575,000 tonnes of organic waste was treated in composting or biogas plants. Of this 66% was garden and park waste.

Paper/cardboard: By recycling paper it is possible to reduce the energy consumption for paper production to between one third and one half. Such energy savings by far outweigh the energy used for CO₂-neutral incineration of waste paper. Recycling of paper/cardboard therefore reduces CO₂ emissions. In 1995, the quantity of paper recycled amounted to about 557,000 tonnes, corresponding to 45% of the potential amounts.

Glass: Recycling of glass contributes to reducing the consumption of energy. Reductions compared to production of new glass containers/non-returnable containers are larger by reuse (i.e. refilling) than by recovery (i.e. use of cullet in the production process). In addition to beer and mineral water containers in return and deposit schemes, a total of about 104,000 tonnes is recovered, corresponding to approx. 63% of the potential.

Plastic: Recycling plastic reduces the consumption of energy, since the energy consumed in processing of plastic waste is about one third of the energy consumed in the production of completely new plastic raw materials. In addition to the energy content of raw materials, recycling also results in savings of process energy. Plastic recycling amounts to approx. 29,000 tonnes.

Iron and metal: Iron and metal mining is based on the considerable amounts of energy that may be saved by recycling. Recycling of iron and metal scrap amounts to approx. 983,000 tonnes.

The objectives laid down in the Action Plan result in increased recycling, amounting to almost 2 million tonnes per year. The corresponding CO₂-limiting effects have not been quantified. The quantities of waste for incineration are not significantly changed. The need for landfilling will be reduced by 50%, which means that about 1.8 million tonnes of waste per year is not landfilled but recycled or incinerated. Of this total, combustible waste removed from landfills amounts to approx. 0.8 million tonnes per year.

Status

The objective of about 50% recycling was already reached in 1994. As a result of the Action Plan for Waste and Recycling, recycling now increased to 61%. Incineration reached 20% in 1995, with the goal for the year 2000 being 25%. Landfilling fell to 18% in 1995, the goal being to reduce the landfilling further. In 1995, 1% of the waste was treated as hazardous waste.

Recycling of some waste fractions has already reached the objective for the year 2000. These fractions are demolition waste, garden and park waste, residual products from power generation, and sewage sludge.

In 1995, the amount of waste reached 11.2 million tonnes. According to the Action Plan for Waste and Recycling, the amount in the year 2000 is expected to be approx. 9.8 million tonnes.

Recycling of organic household waste is far from reaching the objective for the year 2000. Landfilling of waste from institutions, industries, trade and commerce will have to be reduced significantly to reach the target for the year 2000.

The waste objectives will be achieved using a series of instruments, including:

• Agreements with industry, supplemented with legislation on take-back obligations, and producer liability for a number of products, based on recycling objectives stipulated by the Minister for Environment and Energy
• Increase and differentiation of waste charges, with a view to increasing landfill charges compared to incineration charges
• Legislation providing for separation of non-recyclable waste in combustible and non-combustible fractions, and prohibiting landfilling of combustible waste
• Agreement with local authorities, or legislation on dual collection of organic waste and remaining waste from private households, with subsequent introduction of collection systems for paper/cardboard and glass
• New guidelines on the design and operation of landfill sites

Land fill gas

Thirteen Danish landfills currently generate electricity by extracting methane gas. The energy of the gas is about 550 TJ per year.

5.3 Nitrous oxide, N₂O

Agriculture

The Danish Action Plan for Sustainable Development in the Agricultural sector was approved by the Parliament in 1991. The plan aims at obtaining an agricultural sector which functions and develops in harmony with the ecological cycles in nature and at the same time is economical viable.

The plan emphasis that sustainable development must be based on:

• Production of healthy products of good quality
• Production in an ethical responsible way and without undesirable effects on the environment and on nature
• Important contributions to GDP, employment and the balance of trade

The Action Plan pays special attention to the main environmental problems in the Danish agricultural sector notably nitrogen emissions and the use of pesticides. A goal has been set to achieve a 47% reduction in nitrogen emissions by the end of the century and a 50% reduction in the use of pesticides by 1997. Policy measures and instruments are reviewed and strengthened, as appropriate, on a regular basis.

Less intensive farming and nature restoration, in particular on marginal soils, set-aside schemes combined with environmental obligations have also resulted in a reduction of the external effects of agricultural production.

Data on fertiliser sales indicate a substantial decrease and the utilisation of nutrients in livestock manure have improved. This development means less emission of N₂O.

5.4 Other greenhouse gases and precursors

5.4.1 HFCs

With the aim of phasing out the use of CFCs as fast as possible, HFCs have been used to replace CFCs in some areas. Consumption thus increased from zero in 1990 to around 750 tonnes in 1995. During the last couple of years the Danish EPA has supported a number of research activities to develop products and production processes which do not use HFCs or other strong greenhouse gases, e.g. replacement of HFCs by natural cooling agents.

It is the aim of the Danish Government to phase out the use of HFCs within the refrigerating industries before 2006

Since 1977, it has been prohibited to use HFCs as a fire fighting agent and HFC-134a as a propellant/solvent in aerosol sprays.

5.4.2 Precursors

VOC

Denmark is a Party to the 1979 ECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution.

One of the Protocols agreed under this Convention is the Protocol Concerning the Control of Emissions of Volatile Organic Compounds or their Transboundary Fluxes. Denmark signed the Protocol in November 1991 and ratified the Protocol in April 1996.

According to the Protocol, Denmark is now obliged to reduce VOC-emissions by 30% before the end of 1999 compared to the 1985 level.

Denmark will meet this obligation through legislation concerning:

• Catalytic converters for cars
• Limitation of emissions from refuelling at petrol stations
• Limitation of emissions from petrol storage and petrol distribution
• Voluntary agreements with Danish industry on the reduction of VOC-emissions from industrial processes by about 40% before 2000 compared to the 1988 level.

NO_x

The Convention on Long-range transboundary Air Pollution also includes a Protocol Concerning the Control of Emissions of Nitrogen Oxides or their Transboundary Fluxes. This entered into force in February 1991 and contains an obligation to stabilise NO_x emissions before 31 December 1994. Denmark has met this commitment.

Twelve Parties to the Protocol, including Denmark, have further agreed on a 30 % reduction in NO_x emissions by 1998. Denmark will meet this obligation through the existing Energy and Transport Plans.

 

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