Paradigm for Substance Flow AnalysesGuide for SFAs Carried Out for the Danish EPAContents
2 Principles and Procedures 3 Level of Detail and Reliability
4 Sources of Information
Appendix 1 Standard Reporting Outline of Substance Flow Analyses Carried
out for the Danish EPA
PrefaceThe aim of the present paradigm for substance flow analyses is to provide a general framework for Substance Flow Analysis (SFAs) carried out for the Danish EPA. The paradigm is an updated and revised version of a previous paradigm from 1993 (Hansen & Boisen 1993). The first paradigm was developed to ensure uniformity and comparability of SFAs expected to be carried out for hazardous chemical substances under the Danish EPA´s framework programme on hazardous substances in waste. In Denmark today, SFA is taken to be a standard tool in the process of identifying important sources for release of hazardous substances to the environment and the first paradigm has been used for a range of SFAs. A comprehensive list of SFAs carried out in Denmark is included in appendix 2. Summaries of nine of these SFAs are included in appendix 5. An SFA will typically be initiated for substances, which have been identified as actual or potential hazardous to humans or the environment. The outcome of the SFA will subsequently form the fundament for considerations by the Danish EPA as regards the need and instruments for risk minimisation for the substance in question. A potential field for application of SFA, which may prove important in the future, is the function of providing input to risk assessments for chemical substances carried out according to EU regulation. The experience with the SFAs carried out until now is that there often has been a need for focusing the analyses on specific parts of the substance flow or extending the analyses to include other aspects related to the use of the substance. A main objective of the update of the paradigm has been to include such focusing end extensions into the main framework of the analyses. The report is intended to be used by the Danish EPA in the proces of calls for proposal and by both new and more experienced Danish SFA practitioners. In addition the paradigm hopefully may also serve as inspiration for authorities and practitioners out of Denmark. Steering Committee A steering committee, whose members are listed below, has been in charge of preparation of this paradigm.
Lea Frimann Hansen, Danish EPA (chair person) Acknowledgement Special thanks are offered to Ester van der Voet, Leiden University, for productive comments on the paradigm. Authors The paradigm has been prepared by Carsten Lassen and Erik Hansen, COWI Consulting Engineers and Planners AS, Denmark.
SummaryThe present paradigm for substance flow analyses provides a general framework for Substance Flow Analysis (SFAs) carried out for the Danish EPA. The first part includes a general description of principles and procedures as regards the use of substance balances, uncertainty, detail and reliability, cross-checks, literature, statistics, etc. The second part provides a general outline of SFAs, with a detailed description chapter for chapter. The paradigm is intended to be used by the Danish EPA as basis for new SFAs carried out by both new and more experienced project holders. Background and ObjectivesThe aim of the present paradigm for substance flow analyses is to
provide a general framework for Substance Flow Analysis (SFAs) carried out
for the Danish EPA. In Denmark today, SFA is taken to be a standard tool in the process of identifying important sources for release of hazardous substances to the environment and the first paradigm has been used for a range of SFAs. The report provides a list of SFAs of more than 30 substances or substance groups carried out in Denmark during twenty years. A SFA will typically be initiated for substances, which have been identified as actual or potential hazardous to humans or the environment. The outcome of the SFA will in combination with an assessment of environmental and health effects form the fundament for considerations by the Danish EPA as regards the need and instruments for risk minimisation for the substance in question. The experience with the SFAs carried out until now is that there often has been a need for focusing the analyses on specific parts of the substance flow or extending the analyses to include other aspects related to the use of the substance. A main objective of this update of the paradigm has been to include such focusing end extensions into the main framework of the analyses. The report is intended to be used by the Danish EPA as basis for new SFAs carried out by both new and more experienced project holders. In addition the paradigm hopefully may also serve as inspiration for authorities and researchers out of Denmark. This InvestigationThis investigation is an update of a paradigm for SFA developed by Erik Hansen and Hanne Boisen for the Danish EPA in 1993. The revision of the paradigm has been carried out in 1999-2000 by Erik Hansen and Carsten Lassen, COWI Consulting Engineers and Planners AS, for the Danish EPA. The work has been reviewed by a steering committee with representatives from The Danish EPA and COWI. Productive comments have in addition been offered by Esther van der Voet, Leiden University. Principles and ProceduresThe first part of the paradigm provides general guidelines as regards principles and procedures for carrying out SFAs. With inspiration from internationally agreed framework for Life Cycle Assessments, it has been proposed that a SFA consists of three steps:
The overall goal of the analyses covered by this paradigm is to provide a comprehensive view of the flow of the substance in question through the Danish society forming the fundament for considerations as regards the need and instruments for risk minimisation for the substance. To meet the overall goal, the SFAs include determination of the main sources of discharges to the environment in Denmark (including losses to waste deposits, etc.) and explanations about what uses of the chemical substance cause these discharges. In the paradigm is distinguished between what is designated the 'core SFA' and a number of optional extensions. The 'core SFA' includes an analysis of the total flow of a substance or a group of substances through the Danish society during one year. In the extensions the system boundaries are expanded either in space or time e.g. covering the monitoring data of the substance in different environmental compartments. The SFA is based on the principle of substance balance: Input + formation = output + degradation + accumulation The substance balances can be made more or less complex depending on the desired level of detail. In fact, SFAs consist of the systematic use of such substance balances to describe a larger system. The substance balances can be used to describe a static situation by simple bookkeeping or be build into more complex modelling of chances in the balances, which can be used to describe the dynamic of the system and forecast future situations. Undertaking a SFA in many ways resemble doing a jigsaw puzzles. The best way to prove that the jigsaw puzzle has been completed correctly is to make certain, that all pieces fit together. Assessment of data reliability and cross-checking of information and estimates are very important elements in the process, as all data will be more or less uncertain. This first part of the paradigm provides detailed recommendations as regards data quality assessment, dealing with uncertainty, balancing and crosschecking of estimates, literature and statistics. The General OutlineIn the aim of ensuring the uniformity and comparability of the SFAs carried out at a national level in Denmark, the paradigm prescribe a common outline of all SFAs. The main outline is shown in box 1.
Box 1
In the second part of the paradigm a detailed description of the outline chapter for chapter is provided. To what extent it will be possible to cover all issues and follow the outline depends on the data available, but in principle all parts of the substance flow through the society should be addressed. If data is not available it may be necessary to make more uncertain estimates based on models or monitoring data from other countries. Extensions of the SFAApart from the 'core SFA', the paradigm include a list of optional extensions, which cover parts of the substance life cycle outside these system boundaries or other aspects in connection with the use of the substance. The following optional extensions are included:
For each extension a general outline is described.
SammenfatningDette paradigme for massestrømsanalyser giver en generel systematisk ramme for massestrømsanalyser, som udarbejdes for Miljøstyrelsen. Første del af paradigmet indeholder en beskrivelse af principper og procedurer med hensyn til brugen af stofbalancer, usikkerhed, detaljeringsgrad og pålidelighed, krydscheck, litteratur, statistik etc. Anden del giver en generel struktur for massestrømsanalyser med en detaljeret beskrivelse kapitel for kapitel. Rapporten er udarbejdet med henblik på at blive brugt af Miljøstyrelsen som grundlag for nye massestrømsanalyser udført af såvel nye som mere erfarne projektudøvere. Baggrund og formålFormålet med paradigmet er at give en generel systematisk ramme for massestrømsanalyser udarbejdet for Miljøstyrelsen. Paradigmet er en opdateret og revideret version af et tidligere paradigme fra 1993. Det første paradigme blev udarbejdet for at sikre ensartethed og sammenlignelighed mellem massestrømsanalyser, som blev udført under Miljøstyrelsens rammeprogram for problematiske stoffer i affald. Massestrømsanalyser fungerer i Danmark i dag som et værdifuldt værktøj til identifikation af vigtige kilder til udledninger af farlige stoffer til miljøet, og det første paradigme har været anvendt til massestrømsanalyser for en lang række stoffer. I rapporten gives en liste på over 30 stoffer eller stofgrupper, for hvilke der i løbet at de seneste tyve år er udarbejdet massestrømsanalyser En massestrømsanalyse vil typisk blive sat i gang for stoffer, som har en påvist eller potentielt uønsket effekt for mennesker eller miljøet. Resultatet af massestrømsanalysen vil sammen med en vurdering af miljø- og sundhedseffekter udgøre grundlaget for Miljøstyrelsens overvejelser vedrørende behovet for og instrumenterne til at reducere risikoen knyttet til brugen af det pågældende stof. Erfaringerne med de massestrømsanalyser, der er udarbejdet indtil nu, er at der ofte har været brug for at fokusere analyserne på bestemte dele af stofstrømmen gennem samfundet eller at udvide analyserne til at omfatte andre aspekter i relation til brugen af stoffet. Hovedformålet med denne opdatering har været at indarbejde sådanne fokuseringer og udvidelser i den overordnede systematiske ramme for analyserne. Rapporten er udarbejdet med henblik på at blive brugt af Miljøstyrelsen som grundlag for nye massestrømsanalyser udført af såvel nye som mere erfarne projektudøvere. Hertil kommer, at rapporten forhåbentligt kan virke som inspiration for myndigheder og udøvere i andre lande. UndersøgelsenDenne undersøgelse er en opdatering af et tidligere paradigme for massestrømsanalyser fra 1993 udarbejdet af Erik Hansen og Hanne Boisen for Miljøstyrelsen. Revisionen af paradigmet er udført for Miljøstyrelsen i 1999-2000 af Erik Hansen og Carsten Lassen, COWI Rådgivende Ingeniører A/S. Arbejdet har været fulgt af en styregruppe med repræsentanter for Miljøstyrelsen og COWI. Her ud over har Esther van der Voet, Leiden Universitet, bidraget med værdifulde kommentarer. Principper og procedurerI det første del af paradigmet gives generelle retningslinier vedrørende principper og procedurer for udarbejdelse af massestrømsanalyser. Med inspiration fra de internationalt anerkendte retningslinier for livscyklusvurderinger, LCA, er det foreslået at en massestrømsanalyse består af tre trin:
Det overordnede mål for analyserne, som er dækket af dette paradigme, er at give et dækkende billede af strømmen af det pågældende stof gennem det danske samfund, som kan danne grundlag for overvejelser vedrørende behovet for og instrumenterne til at mindske risikoen knyttet til brugen af stoffet. I paradigmet skelnes mellem, hvad der betegnes "kerne-massestrømsanalysen" og en række mulige tilvalg. Kerne-massestrømsanalysen omfatter en analyse af den totale strøm af stoffet eller stofgruppen gennem det danske samfund i løbet af et år. I tilvalgene udvides systemgrænserne i tid eller rum, således at analysen fx også omfatter en sammenfatning af eksisterende måledata for stoffet i forskellige dele af miljøet. Massestrømsanalysen er baseret på princippet for stofbalance: Input + dannelse = output + nedbrydning + akkumulering Stofbalancerne kan blive udbygget til mere eller mindre komplekse modeller, afhængig af hvilket detaljeringsniveau der ønskes. Massestrømsanalyser består i realiteten af en systematisk brug af sådanne stofbalancer til at beskrive større systemer. Stofbalancerne kan anvendes til at beskrive en statisk situation, og analysen er da at sammenligne med simpelt bogholderi, eller de kan blive indbygget i mere komplekse modeller som, kan anvendes til at beskrive systemets dynamik og lave prognoser for fremtidige situationer. At udarbejde en massestrømsanalyse kan på mange måde sammenlignes med at samle et puslespil. Den bedste måde, at sikre at puslespillet er samlet rigtigt er at sikre sig, er at påvise, at alle brikker passer sammen og danner et sammenhængende billede. Vurdering af dataenes pålidelighed og krydscheck af informationer og beregninger er meget vigtige elementer i processen, da alle data er behæftet med større eller mindre usikkerhed. Første del af paradigmet indeholder detaljerede anbefalinger med hensyn til vurdering af datakvalitet, håndtering af usikkerhed, afbalancering og krydscheck af beregninger samt brug af litteratur og statistik. Den generelle strukturMed henblik på at sikre ensartethed og sammenlignelighed mellem massestrømsanalyser udført for Miljøstyrelsen foreskriver paradigmet en generel struktur, som er vist i boks 1. Boks 1
Anden del af paradigmet indeholder en detaljeret beskrivelse af strukturen kapitel for kapitel. I hvilken grad det vil være muligt at dække alle emner og følge strukturen, vil være afhængig af, hvilke data der er til rådighed, men i princippet skal alle dele af strømmen af stoffet gennem samfundet behandles. Hvis der ikke er tilgængelige data, kan det være nødvendigt at lave mere usikre skøn baseret på modelberegninger eller måledata fra andre lande. Udvidelser af massestrømsanalysenUd over "kerne-massestrømsanalysen" omfatter paradigmet en række tilvalg, som dækker andre dele af stoffets livscyklus eller andre aspekter i relation til brugen af stoffet. Følgende tilvalg er omfattet:
For hvert tilvalg foreskriver paradigmet en generel struktur.
1 IntroductionSubstance Flow Analysis (SFA) is an analytical tool used for achieving the understanding of the flow of substances through a given system defined in space and time. The substances may be elements, chemical compounds or groups of chemical compounds. At the moment there is no agreed international guidelines for SFAs, but in recent years methodological elements of the SFA framework has been discussed within a European concerted action of SFA practitioners, ConAccount. A discussion of terminology and general technical framework of SFAs with references to the international literature can be found in the proceedings of the first ConAccount workshop (Bringezu 1997; ConAccount 1999). In Denmark the term 'Mass Flow Analysis' (massestrømsanalyse) has traditionally been used as synonymous of 'Substance Flow Analysis'. However, in accordance with the most used international terminology the term 'Substance Flow Analysis' will be used in this paradigm as the term Mass flow Analysis in other contexts are used for analysis where the flow of more substances are aggregated on the basis of mass (Udo de Haes et al. 1997). If the analysis cover the flow of more complex materials and industrial products the analysis is most often designated 'Material Flow Analysis' (MFA). General framework A general technical framework for SFAs has been proposed by Udo de Haes et al. 1997. The framework takes inspiration from internationally agreed framework for Life Cycle Assessments (LCA ISO 14040). According to this framework the SFA consists of three steps:
These steps are discussed further in section 2.3, but introduced here. Goal definition The present paradigm applies to SFAs initiated by the Danish EPA. The SFAs will typically be initiated for substances which, in different ways, are anticipated of causing environmental or health problems. The overall goal of the analyses is to provide a comprehensive view of the flow of the substance in question through the Danish society forming the fundament for considerations as regards the need and instruments for risk minimisation for the substance. Subsequent to the analysis, it may be considered further to investigate the effects of specific actions, including a more detailed analysis of the possibility of substitution of the chemical substance, etc. In addition the analysis is aimed at providing a common understanding as regards the flow of the substance for all stakeholders in the risk minimisation process: the authorities, industry, NGOs, consumers, etc. In combination the SFAs provide information on e.g sources of heavy metals to solid waste incineration and may in combination be used for prioritising risk minimisation actions including more substances. To meet the overall goal, the SFAs include determination of the main sources of discharges to the environment in Denmark (including losses to waste deposits, etc.) and explanations about what uses of the chemical substance cause these discharges. The more specific goals of the analysis will depend on at which level of the risk minimisation process the SFA is pretended to be used. Is the aim of the analysis to make an initial identification of the main routes of emission to the environment or is the analysis aimed at providing a detailed basis for regulation of the use of the substance for specific applications? The influence of the different goals on the level of detail and reliability of the analysis is discussed further in chapter 3. The goal and systems definitions are tightly connected. In the following is distinguished between what is designated the 'core SFA' and a number of optional extensions. The system definitions of the core SFA are the same for all SFAs covered by this paradigm, and is defined on the basis of the overall goal of the SFAs. In the optional extensions the system boundaries in space and time is expanded as a consequence of some specific goals of the analysis. The overall goals of the extensions are defined for each extension in the detailed outline in Appendix 1. System definition The 'core SFA' of the present paradigm cover analysis of the total flow of a substance or a group of substances through the Danish society during one year. The system boundaries are discussed further in chapter 2. SFAs may also provide input to Risk Assessments for chemical substances carried out according to EU regulation. A SFA is actually a basic part of the exposure assessment according to the EU Technical Guidance Document for Risk Assessments (TGD 1996). However, it should be emphasised that the system boundaries in both space and time of the SFAs used for the Risk Assessment are different from the boundaries of the SFAs covered by this paradigm. The paradigm does not attempt to describe particular problems that may occur when carrying out other analyses e.g. national level MFAs or SFAs covering only parts of the Danish Society. A number of the comments provided would, however, also be applicable for such analyses. Contents The paradigm consists of a main report and Appendix 1. Appendix 1 contains the annotated outline for SFAs for substances at the national level and a description of a list of optional extensions of the analysis. The main report should be seen as a general introduction to appendix 1 and to some extent to substance flow analysis in general. Furthermore, the main report attempts to draw up some general guidelines as to the level of detail and reliability of SFAs as well as for sources of information and their use. The manhour input required to carry out such analyses is summarised in Appendix 2. Optional extensions As mentioned above the paradigm covers what can be designated the 'core SFA' as defined by the boundaries described above and a list of optional extensions, which cover parts of the substance life cycle outside these system boundaries or other aspects in connection with the use of the substance. The extensions expand the boundaries in space and time, but still the analysis is not expanded to include aspects regarding human toxicity, ecotoxicity and economic feasibility of substitution and legislative regulation. If these aspects are to be covered it is recommended to initiate a separate study. The following optional extensions are included: A: International market and trends in consumption, detailed analysis. B: Qualitative description of the exposure of man by use and disposal of finished products C: Scenarios for future emissions and loss of the substance D: Occurrence and fate in the environment E: National and international regulation on the use of the substance F: Assessment of substitutes G: Recycling, downcycling and material deterioration The extensions A, B and partly F are recommended to be included into the main SFA report as outlined in appendix 1, whereas the other extensions are recommended to be prepared as appendixes to the report with short abstracts in the summary sections of the main report. The reason for this is to keep a common outline of the 'core SFAs' which make it easier to go across several SFAs and e.g extract information on sources of heavy metals to solid waste incineration. Focus areas Beside extending the core SFA it may be relevant to focus the analysis on particular parts of the substance flow within the boundaries of the analysis. Within the focus area the analysis goes into more detail than determined by the overall level of detail and reliability (see next chapter). The following focus areas should be considered before a SFA is initiated:
A focus area can be the turnover of a specific chemical compound that only account for a minor part of the total turnover of the substance or substance group in question. In MFA for tin /Lassen & Hansen 1997/ the focus area was for example organotin compounds. Chemical state of emitted compounds For some substances the chemical state of emitted compounds may be of particular interest. For example it may be of interest to know whether the chromium in residues from waste treatment is in a more or less oxidised state. Marginal applications For some analysis aimed at providing a basis for regulation of the substance the consumption of the substance with marginal applications may be a focus area. It means that additional input has to be allocated to the marginal applications although these applications only account for a very small part of the total turnover of the substance. Parts of the life cycle For some substances, parts of the life cycle may be of particular interest and more input may be allocated to these parts at the expense of other parts of the life cycle. For heavy metals the flows related to the treatment of solid waste may e.g. be of particular interest, whereas this part of the life cycle may be of less interest as regards volatile organic compounds
2 Principles and Procedures2.1 The Principle of Substance BalanceSubstance flow analysis (SFA) is an analytical tool, that is used for achieving the understanding of the flow of substances within a given system defined in space and time. Any substance flow analysis is based on the principle of substance balance: (Eq. 1) Input + formation = output + degradation As concerns elements, the mass is always constant, and there is no possibility of formation and degradation. For elements the substance balance is thus a simple mass balance: input = output. In the case of chemical compounds that are composed of more than one element, 'formation' and 'degradation' may have a significant impact as chemical, biological or thermal processes may lead to both formation and degradation of such substances. Expression (1) may be formulated in a number of ways, depending on the system it aims to describe. If the purpose as here is to assess the consumption of a product in Denmark, the expression will be: (Eq. 2) Imports + Danish production = exports + consumption Û (Eq. 3) Consumption = Danish production + imports - exports In all substance flow analyses, it is important to determine the boundaries of the analysis in time. The substance flow analyses covering the Danish society as a whole have most often run for a period of one year. However, many products will have a useful lifetime of more than one year, and, at the same time, the market is constantly changing. For this reason it is often relevant to include changes in the stock building of the substance. Within the boundaries in time, the substance balance can consequently be expressed: (Eq. 4) Input + formation = output + degradation + accumulation In this expression, 'accumulation' refers to the changes in stock building within the period covered. The equation is discussed further in section 2.2.1. Expression (1)-(3) all describe simple substance balances, which can be made more or less complex depending on the desired level of detail. In fact, SFAs consist of the systematic use of such substance balances to describe a larger system. The substance balances can be used to describe a static situation by simple bookkeeping or be build into more complex modelling of chances in the balances, which can be used to describe the dynamic of the system and forecast future situations. 2.2 The SFA SystemAs mentioned before the SFA system is defined by the boundaries in space and time. Boundaries in space The focus of the 'core SFA' of this paradigm is the Danish society and all the processes taking place from the extraction/import of raw materials to the final disposal of residual products. The Society may as well be designated the 'technosphere' or the 'physical economy'. The society is surrounded by 'The Environment' divided on the compartments: 'soil', 'water' and 'air'. The 'core SFA' does not cover the flows between these compartments. A simplified model of this system is shown in Figure 1. Most of the arrows shown in the figure may indicate several different types of transport. For instance, 'recycling' covers:
In the figure it has been chosen to indicate 'landfilling' as a separate level in the system between 'treatment of waste/residuals ' and the environment (represented by the boxes 'soil', 'water' and 'air'). In reality, for many organic substances 'landfilling' will be a form of waste treatment, as degradation/transformation will take place in a landfill. In the case of persistent chemical substances, landfills should be regarded as a type of storage from where these substances can slowly disperse into the environment by leaching or evaporation.
Figure 1 Defining the boundary of the analysis at the Danish borders means that emission of the substance by extraction and processing abroad of imported raw materials are not covered by the analysis. Similarly emissions by processing of exported waste is excluded. It should be noted that other SFA/MFA approaches focus more on these life stages as decribed in Bringezu 1997. Concentration and accumulation of the substance in the environmental compartments are not covered by the 'core SFA ' but may be included in an extension to the analysis as described in section 3.7.2. Boundaries in time In the 'core SFA' the system in time is defined as one year. It means that the analysis aim at estimating the actual flows between the compartments the year of reference. In fact it is often necessary to include information from a broader time period as the emissions to the environment and loss to waste the year of reference can only be estimated on the basis of information on historical consumption figures. For 'sun-down' chemicals the emission to the environment and loss to waste may for instance be much larger than the actual consumption. For the discussion of the environmental implications of the present consumption of the substance it may be relevant to expand the boundaries in time and try to predict future emissions as result of nowadays consumption. Such predictions are included in the optional extension described in 3.7.1. 2.3 ProceduresWhereas the principles of SFAs are very simple, the practical procedures will seldom be. The reality, which is described by means of an SFA, is often complex and it may be difficult to obtain the necessary data. In addition the data, which can be obtained, is seldom 100% accurate, but usually subject to varying degrees of uncertainty. This section is not intended to thoroughly go through all procedures, but to focus on some procedures that by experience often cause difficulties. The procedures used in the individual case will depend on the pattern of application and flow of the chemical substance to be analysed as well as the purpose of the analysis and the level of detail and reliability considered appropriate. According to experience and internationally proposed framework, the following phases of the SFA study is proposed:
Compared to the steps introduced in the Introduction a step with 'system analysis' is added. The main reason is that the SFAs covered by this paradigm in general are projects where goal definition and interpretation of the results are carries out at two levels. The goal definition and interpretation of the results by the initiator of the analysis (here the Danish EPA) in a way encompass the goal definition and interpretation of the results by the researcher. Phase 1. Goal and system definition The initial goal and system definition is often carried out by the Danish EPA or other clients. The present paradigm is pretended to provide a reference point both in the preparation of call for tenders and preparation of tenders. After initiation of the project the goal and system definition may be changed in cooperation between the researcher and the client on basis of the system analysis. Phase 2: System analysis The system analysis is considered a separate phase because this is often the first phase involving the researcher and the outcome of this phase may effect both the goal and system definition and the inventory. In this phase, the whole system is considered thoroughly and all types of transport and processes, which have an impact on the flow of the substance/material through society, are identified. This phase forms the basis of the subsequent inventory, as it is during the system analysis phase that the requirements are determined as to what data and degree of accuracy are needed. Such a system analysis will be based on knowledge about industrial applications (intended applications and application as a trace element and contaminant) of the chemical substances in question. In addition, detailed knowledge about treatment of waste and disposal of residual products in Denmark is required (cf. Section 4). It is important to keep in mind that the flow system established in this phase would seldom be perfect. Presumably, there will be aspects which have been overlooked and types of transport/processes considered to be essential will turn out to be unimportant. In practice, it is an iterative process through which the system is modified continuously as more profound knowledge is obtained. Phase 3: Inventory and modelling This phase starts out with the collection of easily accessible data. In this context, easily accessible data comprises statistical data about the production, import and export of relevant raw materials, semi-manufactured goods and finished products. In addition, there will be monitoring data concerning finished products and waste streams, etc. On this basis, a strategy is worked out for the continued collection of data. Should data be collected from enterprises and if so, what information from what enterprises etc.? Are individuals at Danish research institutions likely to possess information etc.? If a questionnaire is used or interviews are made, how can the questions be phrased so as to obtain the needed answers? Are certain persons likely to be reluctant to supply information and perhaps give wrong information, and how can this situation be prevented and monitored? The relevant sources of information will be plentiful and depend on the types of information required (cf. Section 4). The above questions are primarily meant as a checklist for the considerations to be kept in mind in the planning of the data collection. General rules cannot be laid down. The right solution in the individual situation must be based on experience and the personal preference of the researcher. If a wrong solution is chosen at first, the analysis will have to start all over again, until sufficient data have been collected for a realistic estimate to be made. An example of estimation of the total consumption of a substance for a specific application based on information from producers is shown in box 1. During the inventory the pieces of the puzzle (the individual data) are put together. Often, the figures will not correspond precisely and there will be a need for a more detailed evaluation of the data to find out why. Can the discrepancies be explained by inaccuracies of estimates and monitoring results or has something been overlooked or based on wrong estimates? Again, this is an iterative process as there may be a need to improve the collection of data until a satisfactory result is achieved (the jigsaw puzzle is complete). Some of the flows can due to the lack of monitoring data only be determined indirectly using models. This will be further discussed in section 2.3.4. Phase 4: Interpretation of the results Interpretation and discussion of the results can be done at more levels. The SFAs carried out according to the old paradigm (Hansen & Boisen 1993) has been criticised not to go into more detail with the interpretation of the results and keep the analysis and interpretation at a level of bookkeeping. This criticism is right as much of the interpretation is left for the authorities and other readers of the reports. The basic interpretation, which should be part of the reporting, includes a discussion of the obtained flow chart based on the cross-checks which are discussed further in section 2.3.2. The main sources of emission to the environment and losses to waste are pointed out and emissions of potential importance where more data are needed are flagged. A further discussion of the emissions of the substance in terms of contribution to environmental impact or sustainability indicators may be relevant, but such an impact assessment is not included in the SFAs covered by this paradigm. The interpretation of the results in terms of regulatory actions is kept out the analysis and reporting, but left for the authorities initiating the analysis. By the interpretation of the results the researcher may for example point out the main sources of discharges of the substance to the aquatic environment, but does not propose specific regulatory actions to minimise these discharges. The reasons for this is, as mentioned in the Introduction, that one of the goals of the analysis is to provide a common understanding for all stakeholders of the risk minimisation process. 2.3.1 Dealing with UncertaintyAlmost all data used for the SFAs will be subject to a certain degree of uncertainty. The sources of uncertainty will not be discussed in detail here. A systematic way of describing the sources of uncertainty can be found in /Hoffmann et al. 1997/. In this chapter will be focused more on how to represent and manage the uncertainty. The uncertainty should be specified for all figures. It is recommended to represent uncertain figures as probability distributions and indicate the uncertainty by intervals; e.g. 200-250 tonnes. For most figures there will be a 'true value'; e.g. the actual consumption of the substance within the reference year, but the researcher conducting the SFA does not know this value. When a number of monitoring data exist, it may be possible to use standard statistics to estimate a confidence interval assuming the data are normal distributed, but for most figures in the analysis the uncertainty has to be determined by 'expert judgements'. As the figure is uncertain it will not be possible to represent the figures by an interval within which the 'true value' at 100% certainty can be found. In order for the intervals not to be unreasonably wide, it is recommended to use intervals representing a 90% (or 80%) certainty level. In other words: the figures are represented by the interval within which the author estimates the 'true value' with 90% certainty can be found. In addition it can be assumed that the probability is normal distributed with the mean value as the most probable and a symmetric distribution around the mean. This means that the width of the interval directly indicates the uncertainty on the results. It makes no sense to state: 'The consumption is roughly estimated at 100-110 tonnes'. A rough estimate will inherently be quite uncertain and if the estimate is rough it will be more correct to state: 'The consumption is roughly estimated at 20-200 tonnes'. By experience most people have a tendency to underestimate the uncertainty. To get an idea of how wide the intervals should be it is recommended to practice with standard statistics e.g. in spread-sheet applications. If e.g. three independent information sources estimate the consumption to be 200, 300 and 400 tonnes, respectively, and we assume the information sources to be equally trustworthy, the 80% confidence interval calculated with standard methods will be 191-408 tonnes. If all figures are represented as probability distributions a consistent way of adding up the figures is to use the rules for e.g. addition of normal distributions. Principles and software for carrying out life cycle assessments using figures represented as probability distributions is described in /Hoffmann et al. 1997/. Managing the figures by these rules of probability distribution arithmetic, however, makes the analysis less transparent and it is recommended simply to add up figures by adding up the lowest and highest values within the intervals, respectively.
The consequence of using this simple addition principle is that the intervals representing the total actually represent a higher certainty level than the two input-data. The interpretation of the intervals used in the analysis should be described in the 'Preface' or 'Introduction' of the report. For example it should be mentioned whether the intervals for input data are considered to represent 80% or 90% certainty levels? In a few instances when a number of analysis data are available it will be possible to use standard statistical methods e.g. to calculate a confidence interval on the mean value. As an example data on the concentration of the substance in sewage sludge may be available from many sewage treatment plants and a 90% confidence interval can be calculated presuming that the analyses represent random samples. Most often the available date, however, cannot be presumed to be random samples from a common distribution, and it may be expedient to divide the data into more distributions, treating each distribution independently. By this method the uncertainty on the total result will often be lower. For instance it is relevant to treat analyses of flue gas from solid waste incinerators as three distributions depending on the present flue gas cleaning technology: dry, semi-dry or wet cleaning technology. Beside the natural variation among the samples each analysis are subject to an uncertainty dependent on the applied analysis method. As far as the uncertainty is unbiased (symmetric distributed around the mean), this uncertainty will simply make a part of the measured variation between the samples and need no specific treatment. It is, however, essential to be sure that the analysis method not systematically overestimate or underestimate the actual content of the samples. Especially when using older analysis results it is thus necessary to assess whether new analysis methods has revealed that the applied method overestimate or underestimate the actual content. 2.3.2 Cross-checksThe most important tool to handle and evaluate the uncertainty is 'cross-checking'. Whenever there is a possibility to cross-check, it should be done in order to verify the coherence of the SFA. One of several important cross-checks consists in checking whether the consumption by the manufacturers of raw materials corresponds to the consumption of raw materials and semi-manufactured goods registered in the statistics. If these data correspond, the estimated consumption for different purposes is likely to be true. If the data do not correspond, one ore more estimate(s) may be wrong or stock building etc. may be taking place. In reality, many of the data collected for SFAs are so uncertain that they do not really have any value until they have been cross-checked. SFAs for chemical substances at the national level in many ways resemble jigsaw puzzles. The best way to prove that the jigsaw puzzle has been completed correctly is to make certain, that it is not possible to point out pieces, which do not fit together. The following types of cross-checks based on the application of mass-balances is considered to be relevant:
Box 1
2.3.3 Assessment of ConsumptionBy experience there is often some confusion regarding the interpretation of the terms 'consumption' and 'supply' used in the analyses. For this reason the consumption assessment will be discussed in more detail here although the consumption assessment is only one part among others of the analysis. The substance is most often both consumed with raw material and semi-manufactures for production of finished products in Denmark and consumed with finished products sold at the market. In this paradigm the term 'Consumption in Denmark' represents the consumption of the substance with finished products. The consumption of the substance with finished products during the year of reference is equal to the total content of the substance in finished products sold in Denmark during the year. This is independent of whether the products are actually used up by the consumer during the year or they last for many years. For example, the flow of the brominated flame retardant TBBPA with printed circuit boards is illustrated in figure 3.1. The consumption of TBBPA in Denmark is represented by the consumption of the substance with the finished electronic products. Beside this it is relevant to assess the consumption of TBBPA for production of compounds, the consumption of laminates for production of printed circuit boards, and the consumption of printed circuit boards for production of electronic products. The main emphasis of the assessment of production of semi-manufactures is the losses by the processes, and consequently the focus should be on processes where losses occur. Consumption for production processes is in the SFA specifically termed 'Consumption for production processes in Denmark'.
Figure 3.1 By assessing the consumption of the substance with raw materials and semi-manufactures for production in Denmark e.g. from the import/export statistics it is important to avoid "double account" where the same quantity is accounted two times. This is further discussed in section 3.4.1 of appendix 1. Supply The terms 'supply' and 'consumption' describe in fact the same reality from two different points of view. In this paradigm, however, the term 'supply' is used in a pure trade statistical context where:
The equation is similar to Equation 3, but consumption is replaced by supply. The term is used when data from the statistics is presented and the supply is calculated as a single value from the available statistical data. The supplied commodities may both be consumed for production processes and as finished products, and in addition the statistical data may be vitiated by errors. It is an essential part of the SFA to determine to what extent this registered supply actually is equal to the consumption. Accumulation The consumption as defined above does actually not represent the total input to the Danish society; as also emissions and waste from production processes must be considered inputs (and at the same time outputs). For the calculation of the present accumulation of the substance in the Danish society equation 4 can be modified in the following way:
'Loss (production processes)' represents emissions to the environment and loss to waste from production processes. The loss can be ideally be calculated as: Loss(production processes) = import (raw materials) + extraction(raw materials) - export(raw materials) - production(finished products) The picture is, however, in reality often very complicated due to intensive import and export of semimanufactures. The losses from the production processes are therefore most often calculated from the figures on production and typical emission factors. If the number of Danish producers is small the loss from production processes may be estimated from information obtained from all producers. These losses are also included in 'total emissions' and 'total loss to waste'. The reason for this emphasis on the loss from production processes is that by experience these losses are often omitted from the assessment of inputs and only included as emissions. It should be noted that the accumulation in the society does not say anything specific about the accumulation of the products sold the year of reference. For substances where the consumption is declining the accumulation may be negative meaning that the amount of the substance accumulated in the society is declining. 2.3.4 ModellingIn principle all potential flows identified during the system analysis should be estimated. Allthoug the 'core SFA' is aimed at being a simple 'bookkeeping' of the substance flows it is often necessary to use simple or more complex models to determine some of the flows. In addition some of the extensions include more complex modelling. It is essential to keep in mind that the SFA is not only a systematic way of representing the available information on the flows of the substance. The SFA is a systematic way of representing all flows; whether or not data are available. It is not uncommon that less trained researchers confuse the available information on flows with the "true" flows. Less investigated substances When carrying out SFAs for less investigated substances there may not be any Danish monitoring data of the substance in wastewater, residual products, flue gasses, etc. For most substances data on emissions from production processes are also absent. In this situation it has to be decided whether the SFA should exclude this part of the analysis or the most probable values should be estimated on the basis of analyses from foreign countries or theoretical models. If models and foreign results are used in the SFA, it should be clearly indicated all through the report. For instance such estimates has been used in SFA for brominated flame retardants /Lassen et al. 1999 B/. Foreign analysis results When using foreign analysis results the use pattern of the substance in the foreign country should be comparable to the use pattern in Denmark. For substances with same use pattern in Denmark and Sweden, by way of example, analysis from Swedish wastewater treatment plants may be used in the absence of Danish result, when all assumptions are clearly indicated and it is indicated that the estimates are based on Swedish results. Such results can be used to indicate whether Danish analysis programmes should be initiated. Models based on physical/chemical properties In the absence of directs measurements of emissions from production processes or products in use the emissions may be estimated from models e.g. based on physical/chemical properties of the substances and the materiel they make part of. Such estimates will usually be very uncertain and only the order of magnitude can be estimated. Process specific emission factors has been developed in EU for use in Risk Assessments and emission factors for different industrial sectors can be found in the "Use Category Documents". Similar documents are under development under the auspices of the OECD. An example of using the "Use Category Documents" can be found in SFA for brominated flame retardants /Lassen et al. 1999 B/. Models based on historical consumption figures Often the loss of the substance to e.g. solid waste can only be determined from information on historical consumption figures as the products discarded today may have been introduced into the society many years ago. Today loss of the substance with a specific product will depend on two parameters:
A detailed example can be found in SFA for cadmium, where the amount of NiCd disposed of in 1998 is estimated based on the basis of such a model (Drivsholm et al. 2000). These models in many ways resemble the scenarios for the future loss/disposal of the substance discussed in Appendix 1 section 3.7.1. 2.3.5 Sun-down chemicalsFor sun-down chemicals, chemicals on the way to be phased out, there is some specific procedures that will be mentioned here. For substances, which are commonly used for the application in question in Denmark, the total consumption in Denmark may be extrapolated from information from the main producers and suppliers. This procedure will, however, not apply for 'sun-down chemicals', because the manufactures will usually not know whether other manufactures still use the chemical or use a substitute. In addition it will often be so that the largest producers have substituted the substance, but it is still used by small producers. In this instance the total consumption cannot be extrapolated from information from large suppliers representing e.g. 80% of the market of the product, as the remaining 20% may represent the total consumption in Denmark. It is thus necessary that the assessment cover practically all suppliers. An example of such an analysis can be found in SFA for chlorinated hydrocarbons (Maag 1999). This means that it is necessary to have a nearly 100% coverage which can only be obtained by questionnaire surveys or telephone interviews. By experience the reply percentage of questionnaire surveys is quite low unless the inquiries are followed up by direct telephone calls.
3 Level of Detail and ReliabilityThe SFAs may be conducted at different levels of detail and reliability. As regards the analyses carried out and published in Denmark so far, it is relevant to distinguish between:
In addition the analysis can be extended with one or more of the extensions. A number of possible extensions are specified in Appendix 1. The definition of level is a part of the initial 'Goal definition' and it is recommended to define the level of detail and reliability to be achieved/aimed at, before a substance flow analysis is initiated. Accordingly, all reports on SFAs should specify the degree of uncertainty that applies to the results. This way, it will be possible for the client to assess, for instance by spot checks, whether the analysis has been completed satisfactorily. In principle, the uncertainty of consumption data in relation to detailed analyses and overview analyses, respectively, cannot be documented, as that would require the existence of knowledge about the 'true' values. As regards detailed analyses, the method of analysis in itself including the use of cross-checks (cf. Box 1) is assumed to support the correctness of the stated degree of uncertainty. Detailed analyses Examples of detailed analysis are the SFAs for mercury /Hansen 1985; Maag et al. 1996/, lead /Hansen & Busch 1989;Lassen and Hansen 1996/, copper /Lassen et al. 1996/ and tin /Lassen & Hansen 1997/. These analyses have typically required an effort of 3-5 man months per substance and are estimated by the authors to have fulfilled what is designated the 80/20 rule, i.e. a minimum of 80% of the consumption has been identified according to fields of application and determined within an interval of + 20% around the mean value. The remaining part of the consumption has been determined with a considerably higher degree of uncertainty. In the previous analyses it has often not been stated explicitly how the intervals should be interpreted, but it is recommended that the interval itself according to section 2.3.1 in subsequent detailed analyses represent a 90% certainty level. As regards the assessment of losses to the environment, it also applies that a precise level of uncertainty cannot be stated. In the case of substances that are predominantly imported into Denmark as additives contained in finished products, the uncertainty of the outcome of a detailed analysis may be significantly higher. One important factor in this context is that cross-checks for consumption data cannot be carried out. Obviously, this leaves little possibility to check the distribution of the consumption on different fields of application. In such cases, it will be difficult, even with an extensive effort, to achieve a result with a lower degree of uncertainty than that of an overview analysis. In reality, the result may be verified only by comparison to investigations from other countries or by obtaining information about the size of the production in Europe or world-wide, and on this basis, make an estimate of the likely consumption per inhabitant in Denmark. For substances predominantly imported into Denmark with finished products it is recommended to extend the SFA with a detailed analysis of the application of the substance in an international perspective. Overview analyses Among the examples of overview analysis are those for arsenic, chromium, cobalt and nickel /8/. The typical time requirement of these analyses has been about 1 man month per substance (only possible because of the greater efficiency achieved by carrying out more analyses in parallel) and, in terms of accuracy (as assessed by the authors), it is estimated that 80 per cent of the consumption has been determined with an accuracy of +50% and the remaining 20% with significantly greater uncertainty. The estimates of losses to the environment will also be subject to greater uncertainty than what is the case in detailed analyses. Another characteristic difference worth mentioning is the fact that, in connection with detailed analyses, a considerably greater effort is put into verification of data on consumption by means of cross-checks, whereas such cross-checking has been practically impossible in the case of overview analyses. This is due to the fact that, in some of the overview analyses carried out until now, a significant part of the consumption was estimated on the basis of information about the consumption in the USA. For comparison, at least one enterprise (often 2-4 usually but not all industries) within all significant fields of application were contacted as part of the detailed analyses. Other levels of detail In principle, SFAs can be made both more or less detailed and reliable than what is described above. If the analyses are to be more accurate than level (1), it will, in practice, be necessary to collect information from virtually all relevant enterprises, including importers of manufactured products, and to verify discharge data etc. In addition, detailed information will need to be obtained about all links in the chain of treatment and final disposal of waste and residual products. In principle, it should thereby be possible to reduce the uncertainty of consumption data to a marginal level. At the same time, it should be possible to minimise the uncertainty of data on discharge to the environment to a level corresponding to that implied in sampling and chemical analysis. Up until now, no analyses at this level of detail have been carried out in Denmark and the time consumption involved would probably also be unreasonably high (1 year or more per analysis?). In order to minimise the time consumption, it may be necessary to use foreign analyses/data as a basis and presume that these data (proportionally according to population) also apply to Danish conditions. Provided that foreign data are available, it is thus possible to make estimates of the consumption distributed on fields of application, which may provide an initial overview of the situation but usually not in any significant degree of detail. As the Danish systems for treatment and disposal of waste and residual products differ significantly from the practice in other countries (for instance, incineration of solid waste is more widely used in Denmark than in the rest of Europe), it will normally not be possible to use foreign data to estimate the environmental exposure in this part of the process. Furthermore, the differences in the industrial structure and discharges from manufacturing processes may also be significant. As it appears, there is a close connection between the level of detail and reliability of SFAs and the effort invested. The information given above about inputs required builds on experience with heavy metals and organic compounds with rather complex but still known patterns of application and flow in the society. In the case of substances with a simple pattern of application and dispersion, the analysis will be less time-consuming than what is stated above. Other substances may, on the contrary, require more input.
4 Sources of InformationMany sources of information are available for the preparation of SFAs. Providing a full overview of these is a comprehensive task, which falls outside the scope of this paradigm. This section points out a number of the most important sources of information. 4.1 Technical Reference BooksTwo technical encyclopaedia of particular importance are 'Ullmann' /Ullmanns'/ and 'Kirk-Othmer' /Kirk-Othmer/. These encyclopaedia may be used to achieve an initial overview of the fields of industrial application of chemical substances. The encyclopaedia also provide a great deal of information about processes and thereby a solid background on which to foresee what losses to the environment are likely to be caused by industrial processes in Denmark. In addition Kirk-Othmer for many of the substances provide information about global consumption by application area. When the main fields of application have been identified, additional information can be found in specialised technical literature on the individual materials in which the chemical substances is used. Such literature is not listed here, but reference is made to the Technical Library of Denmark and other technical libraries. 4.2 Statistical InformationStatistics Denmark Information about Danish production, imports and exports of goods is available from Statistics Denmark, who prepare annual and quarterly statistics of the production of goods in Denmark as well as foreign trade. The methods used by Statistics Denmark, reliability of data, etc. is in detail described in the publications and in a 'Declaration of Contents' for each publication. The Declarations of Contents can be found at the Internet /DS 1999/ and is only briefly summarised here. Production of goods in Denmark Statistics on the production of goods in Denmark are published quarterly in the publication 'Manufacturers Sales of Commodities. Series A-D'. This statistical report follows the European Unions statistical system and covers, in principle, about 10,000 tariff items. The report is published about 3.5 months after the expiry of the quarter concerned. The statistics covering the fourth quarter of the year also contain figures for the entire year. The information given includes the production of goods in terms of Danish currency and in terms of tonnes/litres/item or any other relevant unit of measure. The statistics are based on information received from enterprises in Denmark with more than 9 employees. In principle, the information is provisional. Final data for the year is available 6-7 months after the expiry of the year and may be obtained upon request from Statistics Denmark. For more detail see /DS 1999/. Foreign trade Statistics on foreign trade are registered similarly to statistics on production of goods in Denmark and published quarterly in the journal entitled 'External Trade by Commodities and Countries'. The statistical report covering the fourth quarter of the year also contains figures for the entire year. The figures are given for the import/export of goods in terms of Danish currency and tonnes and may also be stated in number of items, m² or any other relevant unit of measurement. The statistics are published approx. 5 months after the expiry of the quarter concerned. In principle, the information given is provisional. Final data for the year is available 6-7 months after the expiry of the year and may be obtained upon request from Statistics Denmark. For external trade different methods are used for EU- trade and trade with non-EU countries. EU-trade The EU-trade is the trade between Denmark and the other EU Member States. The statistics are based on information declared monthly to Statistics Denmark from importers and exporters. This so-called INTRASTAT system was introduced in 1993 when the internal market of the EEC entered into force. Up until 1993, the statistics for all external trade were based on data submitted by the custom authorities. Only companies with an annual EU-import of more than 1.5 million DKK or an annual EU-export of more than 2.5 million DKK have to declare to Statistics Denmark. In terms of value, however, still 98% of the EU-trade is covered by the statistics /DS 1999/. The threshold values change frequently and the indicated values cover 1999. Trade with non-EU countries Trade with non-EU countries is based on the declarations submitted by the custom authorities. The statistics in principle cover all import and export, but for transactions below a threshold value of 6,500 DKK and a weight of less than 1,000 kg a simplified declaration may be used. Transactions below the threshold values, covering 2-4 % of the total non-EU trade, are registered under 'miscellaneous' tariff items number. Sources of error Sources of error is described in detail in the 'Declaration of Contents' from Statistics Denmark. Statistics Denmark estimate that the total import/export figures for EU trade in general are slightly underestimated in spite of the absent declarations from companies with external trade below the limit values. It must, however, be expected that products manufactured in craftsman-like processes may be underestimated due to the statistical threshold values. Beside the statistical errors as incorrect or missing registration, and the uncertainty introduced by the threshold values, there are some possible errors that can be introduced by the use of the statistical data. Products are in general registered according to their main constituent. For instance, the heavy metal fraction from shredders is registered under the tariff item number "Zinc scrap", but a significant part of the fraction is alloys of copper, lead and other heavy metals. The registered volumes may include aqueous solutions which, in fact, mainly consist of water (see the vitamin B-12 example in box 2). The same constituents are imported and re-exported under different tariff item numbers (see the mercury example in box 2). The only profound method to reveal errors, distortion, etc. in statistical data and the use of statistical data is to build up profound knowledge of the products and groups of products concerned by establishing a network of contacts to experts, importers, manufacturers, etc. The Input/Output Statistics These statistics contain information about the consumption of approx. 1,600 groups of products in Denmark distributed on approx. 117 lines of business including industries as well as service trades and public activities. The information about the consumption of products within each line of business is specified in Danish currency and on the basis of raw materials counts carried out every five years. As regards raw materials for the energy sector, including oil, coal etc., the actual volumes are also registered. Moreover, the 1,600 groups of products covers the whole range from raw materials, such as crude oil, gravel, etc. through semi-manufactured goods such as crude plastic iron sections, etc. to manufactured products such as tractors, cosmetics, etc. The statistics are prepared as economic instruments and have, so far, been used primarily to predict the effects of economic intervention. Until now there is no examples of using the Input/Output statistics for SFAs in Denmark. The statistics are not published in total, but data can be obtained from Statistics Denmark. The statistics constitute a valuable tool in order to analyse the patterns of consumption as regards different groups of product in Denmark.
Box 2
Foreign statistics Among foreign tabular surveys 'Mineral Commodity Summaries' and 'Minerals Yearbook' published by the US Geological Survey are of particular interest /USGS 1998 A and B/. Both publications are available for free at the Internet. 'Mineral Commodity Summaries' contains information on the US Consumption and World mine production, reserves and resources of most mineral raw materials including metals. 'Minerals Yearbook' holds information on the production and use of the minerals and metals. The emphasis is on the US situation, but the publication also includes trends in international production and trade. Information on the use of a number of mineral resources in a historic perspective can be found in the report "World Resources (years)" from World Resources Institute /WRI 1999/. The report is updated every second year and is available at the Internet. The 'Metallstatistik' from the German Wirtschafts Vereinigung Metalle e.V is another survey, which contains information relating to Europe / WVM 1999/. The statistics is available at the Internet. As regards organic substances, similar statistical surveys do not exist. Information about production data can sometimes be found in international databases (e.g. ECDIN, EUCLID), in the literature, via the Internet and upon request from the manufacturers DuPont, Ciba-Geigy, Bayer, etc.). Market reports For some substances market surveys have been carried out by consulting companies specialised in business communication. Information on whether such market surveys are available can be obtained from the relevant industrial associations or from the Internet. However, statistical information cannot be expected to be available for all organic chemicals. Examples of companies carrying out market reports are Frost & Sullivan (USA), IAL Consultants (UK) and Business Communications Company Inc. (USA). The market reports are often quite expensive (10,000-50,000 DKK) and the use of market reports has to be specified in the budget of the project. There may be some restrictions on the use of the information from market reports. An example of using market report can be found in SFA for brominated flame retardants /Lassen et al. 1999 B/. Eurostat A CD-ROM is available from the Eurostat (the statistical office of the EEC) which contains complete official foreign trade statistics covering the 15 Member States and all partner counties in the period 1976-1992. The statistics is named COMEXT. The statistics are updated monthly on CD-ROM /European Union 1999/. 4.3 Manufacturers, Importers etc.The most important sources of information to explain the pattern of consumption of substances in Denmark, are the manufacturers, importers etc. involved in trade with the substance or products in which the substance occurs. A good tool for identifying the relevant enterprises is the 'Kompass Inventory of Trade'. Beside a printed version, Kompass is accessible as a database via the Internet. Some parts of the database can be accessed for free, other require subscription. The 'Purchase guide for Engineers' and similar procurement reference books are recommended, along with contacts to trade associations etc. Information from private enterprises can, in principle, be obtained through interviews or questionnaire surveys. In reality, it is a matter of experience to determine which survey method is most appropriate in each case. Generally, interviews are well suited when:
On the other hand, questionnaire surveys are appropriate when:
It should be emphasised that information obtained from private business is often confidential and are to be treated accordingly (cf. Section 5.1). Internet Basic company-specific technical information can often be obtained from the Web-sites of the companies. Especially regarding technical information from foreign companies, the Internet is a strong tool in obtaining information of the newest developments. Covering letter Private business cannot be expected to afford to take the time to respond to random inquiries. Irrespective of whether the SFA is carried out on behalf of a private client, the Danish EPA or another public institution, any inquiry in writing should be accompanied by a covering letter explaining the purpose of the analysis and the manner in which the results will be published and used. Such a covering letter also serves the purpose of documenting the credibility of the investigator and must be signed by the client. The relevant associations of trade and industry should also be informed, before the initiation of the analysis. 4.4 Other Sources of InformationResearch institutions and literature constitute other sources of information. Generally, great amounts of information can be obtained from these sources which are relevant in connection with SFAs, including information about special fields of application of chemical substances, typical production technologies, losses through industrial processes, treatment methods for residual products etc. The possible sources of information are numerous and, in order to fully exploit these, a good grasp of the situation is required which, in practice, can only be obtained through experience. In the following, some of the most important sources of information are listed. Research institutions In Denmark, a number of institutions exist within different fields of expertise, among others:
In addition, a number of trade associations exist including associations covering the paint, varnish and lacquer industry, the plastics industry, the mechanical engineering industry, etc. Furthermore, the electricity companies can be approached for information regarding the use of coal for power generation and the resulting residual products. ConAccount A list of institutions and consulting companies in Europe working within the field out SFA has been drawn up in 1998 as a part of a EU Concerted Action Programme, ConAccount /ConAccount 1999/. The list includes references to relevant projects carried out by the institutions. The Product Register The Danish Product Register contains information about the composition of a large number of chemical products marketed in Denmark. The register only contains information on chemical products containing one or more substances classified dangerous. The information in the register is confidential, but public authorities including the Danish EPA can make data retrievals on the consumption in Denmark of selected chemical substances by application fields. The data from the register should be interpreted with caution, especially for substances with a marked decreasing trend in consumption, as the data often represent the situation some years ago. If data from the register are to be used as a substantial part of the analysis, a quality check of the data to ensure that all declarations are up to date should be discussed with the responsible authorities. Literature The relevant literature for SFAs at national level in Denmark include statements and reports published by the Danish EPA and other institutions within the Danish Ministry of Environment and Energy. Of particular interest are the working reports and the environment project series of the Danish EPA. As regards information about consumption, waste, wastewater, emissions from energy conversion etc., it is recommended in addition to make a search on SFAs and other reports published by environmental authorities and research institutions among others:
In addition, valuable information can be found in the general technical literature including technical magazines - Danish as well as foreign. The Internet The Internet has an increasing significance as a tool for information retrieval. Many reports and statistical data are published at the Internet and the Internet can be used for literature searches (see e.g. the literature list of this report). More detailed description of the use of 'web portals' and 'search engines' for searches at the Internet can be found elsewhere. Waste treatment facilities Data on the presence of the substance in waste and residues from waste treatment has often to be obtained directly from the waste treatment facilities, among others municipal wastewater treatment plants, solid waste incinerator enterprises and Kommunekemi (the Danish central treatment facility for chemical waste). Optional extensions Some of the optional extensions require specific literature retrieval from other sources. The information sources are mentioned for each extension in appendix 1. Literature sources for the extension regarding exposure is, however, mentioned below. Exposure If exposure of man by use and disposal of the products is included as an optional extension, it will be necessary also to search the scientific literature. The search should cover evidence of emission of the substance to the indoor and outdoor environment as well as evidence of exposure of man by using and disposal of the products. A data source is the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) which is part of the World Health Organization /IARC 1999/. The agency publish monographs on the evaluation of carcinogenic risks to humans and the monographs include exposure assessments. In addition relevant databases for the search will be HSDB and RTECS.
5 Reporting TechniquesReferences As a general rule, clear references must be given for all information included in an SFA in accordance with normal scientific research standards. This rule applies both to information obtained from the literature and to information obtained through personal contacts to individuals and enterprises. Transparency Accordingly, clear statements must be made for all calculations of the assumptions on which they are based to make the estimates transparent. If the lack of precise information makes it necessary to use estimates as a basis for calculations, it must be clearly indicated, in each case, when an estimate has been used and who is responsible for this estimate. Reliability and reproducibility These rules are meant to ensure the reliability and reproducibility of the SFA and, at the same time, they make it possible to improve inaccurate estimates, if required. In the following, a number of guidelines concerning reporting techniques are given, which aim primarily at SFAs carried out for public authorities. Confidentiality When collecting information from private enterprises, the rule of clear reference can only be fulfilled for purely technical information, whereas sources of information on turnover and conditions of production often has to be kept confidential. It should be emphasised that private enterprises in Denmark are normally reasonably willing to supply information for analyses initiated by public authorities provided that their need for confidentiality is respected. This need will normally be satisfied if the enterprises are guarantied that the information supplied by them will only be reported after statistical processing, i.e. in a form which will not allow recognition of data for individual enterprises. One way of doing this is to indicate in the report what enterprises have been contacted (may be listed in an appendix), but without specifying the exact information received from each enterprise. Then going through the individual fields of application, the information will be summed up by means of formulations such as: 'Based on information from Danish manufacturers/importers the total consumption for this purpose in 1990 is estimated at XX tonnes'. If information has not been collected from all manufacturers, it would be fair to indicate how many manufacturers have supplied information or the size of the market share covered by the information available. A particularly difficult situation arises if there are only 1 or 2 manufacturers or importers within a specific field of application. In that case, it may be necessary to blur the figures in such a way that the competitors will not learn anything they did not already know while maintaining the information value. One way of doing this is to apply an inaccuracy margin to otherwise precise data. As regards fields of application of less significance in terms of volume and environmental impact, it may also be considered to conceal the information in the section about 'other fields of application' and only give sum totals for more fields. It should be emphasised that these reporting guidelines do not mean that the author is free to distort information. The author must be prepared to discuss each individual figure contained in the report with the client. Rules of the game It is essential to have completely clear rules of the game between the client, the researcher and the enterprises/institutions supplying information for the analysis. If the client cannot accept the reporting techniques described above, this should be made clear at the initiation of the analysis so that no companies or institution supplies information under false pretences. It is thus unacceptable, if a researcher yields to pressure by the client to publish information submitted to him/her on the assumption that it would be treated in confidence. Cross-checks SFAs aiming to fulfil the requirements of detailed analyses (level 1, cf. Section 4) must be based on the concept of cross-checking, which should, in many ways, be decisive for the structure of the report. In the preparation of the report, the author should be clear about the types of cross-checks which could and should be carried out and plan the report so as to make these cross-checks an integrated part of the report. Relevant cross-checks has been described in section 2.3.2 In practice, the integration in the report of such cross-checks means that:
It is emphasised that it might be necessary for the description of the individual applications to include estimates of the loss to solid waste, wastewater etc., which may be very inaccurate because of the lack of precise information. Preferably cross-checks has to be carried out, fully or partly, to verify the correctness of the magnitude of the estimates, otherwise it should be noted through the analyses that the indicated losses is based on very uncertain estimates.
ReferencesInternet addresses by autumn 1999 are indicated for some of the references. The exact addresses of the documents are frequently changed and for this reason the main web-site addresses (URLs) are indicated by underline. Andersen, B.; E. Poulsen & E. Hansen. 1984. Consumption of and Pollution by Arsenic, Chromium, cobalt, and nickel in Denmark. COWIconsult for the Danish EPA, Copenhagen. Unpublished. (in Danish). Bringezu,. S. 1997. From Quantity to Quality: Materials flow analysis. Wuppertal Special 4 Bringezu, S.; M. Fischer-Kowalski; R. Kleijn & V. Palm (eds. 1997). Regional and national accounting: From paradigm tol practice of sustainanbility. Proc. of the Conaccount Workshop Leiden 1997. Wuppertal Special 4. ConAccount. 1999. http://www.leidenuniv.nl/interfac/cml/conaccount/. The site contain references to a large number of studies within the field of SFA. COWI. 1985. Consumption of and pollution by mercury in Denmark. COWIconsult for the Danish EPA, Copenhagen. Unpublished. (in Danish) Drivsholm, T.; J. Maag; S. Havelund & E. Hansen. 2000. Substance flow analysis for cadmium. Danish EPA. In presss (in Danish) DS 1999. Declaration of Content. Statistics Denmark. http://www.dst.dk/siab.asp?o_id=109 (In Danish) European Union. 1999. Homepage for Business - Economics - Policy. http://www.euros.ch/ Udo de Haas; H.A.; E. van der Voet & R. Kleijn. 1997. Substance flow analysis (SFA), an analytical tool for integrated chain management. Wuppertal Special 4. Hansen, E. 1985. Consumption of and pollution by mercury in Denmark. Danish EPA. Unpublished. (in Danish) Hansen, E. & J. Tørslev. 1986. Consumption of and Pollution by Chlorophenols. Environmental Project no. 69. Danish EPA, Copenhagen. (in Danish) Hansen, E. & N. J. Busch. 1987. CFC Consumption Pattern in Denmark. Environmental Project no. 92. Danish EPA, Copenhagen. (in Danish) Hansen, E. & N. J. Busch. 1989. Consumption of and pollution by lead in Denmark. Environmental Project no. 105. Danish EPA, Copenhagen (in Danish). Hansen, E. & A. Boisen. 1993. Paradigm for Substance Flow Analysis. Environmental Project no. 57. The Danish EPA. (in Danish) Hansen J.H. &M.V. Petersen. Hansen, J.H. 1992. Ozone depleting substances - consumption in 1990. Environmental Project no. 190. The Danish EPA. Hoffmann, L., B.P. Weidema & A.K.Ersbøll. 1997. Data quality and statistical analysis in life cycle assessment. Working Report 49/1997. Danish EPA, Copenhagen. (in Danish) IARC 2000. International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), Lyon, France. Http://www.iarc.fr/. Kirk-Othmer: Encyclopaedia of Chemical Technology. John Wiley and Sons Inc., New York, USA (updated continuously). Lassen, C. & E. Hansen. 1996. Substance flow analysis for lead. Environmental Project no. 327. The Danish EPA, Copenhagen. (in Danish) Lassen, C. & E. Hansen. 1997. Working Report no.7/1977. Substance flow analysis for tin - with focus on organotin. The Danish EPA, Copenhagen. (in Danish) Lassen, C., T. Drivsholm, E. Hansen, B. Rasmussen & K. Christiansen. 1996. Substance flow analysis for copper. Environmental Project no. 323. The Danish EPA, Copenhagen. (in Danish) Maag, J. 1998. Substance flow analysis for dichloromethane, trichloroethylene and tetrachloroethylene. Environmental Project no. 392. The Danish EPA. Maag, J., C. Lassen & E. Hansen. 1996. Substance flow analysis for mercury. Environmental Project no. 344. The Danish EPA, Copenhagen. (in Danish). TGD. 1996. Technical guidance document in support of Commission directive 93/67/EEC on risk assessment for new notified substances and Commission regulation (EC) no 1488/94 on risk assessment for existing substances. 1996. Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg. Ullmann's Encyclopaedia of Industrial Chemistry. VCH Verlag, Weinheim, Germany (updated continuously). USGS. 1999 A. Mineral Commodity Summaries. US Geological Survey. Reston, USA. (Updated annually). http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/mcs/ USGS. 1999 A. Minerals Yearbook. US Geological Survey. Reston, USA. (Updated annually). http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/myb.html WRI. 1999. World Resources 1998-99. World Resources Institute. Washington D.C: http://www.wri.org/wri/wr-98-99/index.html WVM. 1999. Metal Statistics (Updated annually). Wirtschafts Vereinigung Metalle e.V. Düsseldorf, Germany. http://www.ne-metalnet.de/eng/politik/
Appendix 1Standard Reporting Outline of Substance Flow Analyses Carried out for the Danish EPATable of Contents2 Main Structure of the Outline
3 Detailed Explanation of the Outline 1 IntroductionThis appendix contains the standard outline of a substance flow analysis (SFA) carried out for the Danish Environmental Protection Agency. The aim of the outline is to ensure the uniformity and comparability of the conducted studies. The outline covers the substance flow from import and extraction of raw materials to the final disposal of residual products from waste treatment plants etc. The outline should be regarded as a framework which can and should be adjusted to match the intended level of detail of the analysis and the patterns of application and flow of the chemical substance in question. This appendix starts off by presenting the overall structure (cf. Chapter 2) followed by a detailed description of the individual sections with indication of the information and evaluations to be included in each section of the report.
2 Main Structure of the OutlineThe main structure of the outline appears from Box A1.
Box A1
The 'core SFA' is contained in Chapters 1 to 4 and organised, as explained below. Preface The preface contains information about the project; client, steering group, working group, etc. Summaries Summaries in both English and Danish should be prepared according to the standard outlines of the Danish Environmental Protection Agency. Preface and summaries has no chapter numbers. Chapter 1 Chapter 1 contains a general introduction to the analysis and the substance in question. The chapter include an introduction to the methodology, describe the substance or substance group and gives information on the international market and trends in consumption. The International market for the substance may be covered by an analysis at overview or detailed level. Chapter 2 Chapter 2 contains a specification of raw materials and semi-manufactured goods as well as actual fields of application. The fields of application are divided into 'intended fields of application' and 'application as trace element and contaminant'. The intended fields of application include all fields of application where intentional utilisation of the properties of the chemical substance takes place. Application as trace element and contaminant includes unintentional applications where the substance occurs as trace element or contaminant in other substances and products, or where small quantities of the substance are formed as a result of industrial processes. Based on the division into fields of application, the consumption is specified for each field and an assessment of likely losses is made. The assessment of turnover and losses should be pursued as far as practically possible, i.e. as far as it is reasonable to consider each field of application seperately. As regards certain products - particularly in the application as trace element in coal, oil etc. - it will be possible to consider each product individually through the entire life cycle. In that case, it should be done as part of the description of the different fields of application contained in chapter 3. As regards industrial products, it is usually only possible to consider the individual products in isolation as far as production and use are concerned. The distinction between fields of applications cannot be maintained when it comes to waste treatment, as the existing data on discharges and losses concerning this part of the life cycle normally represent a mixture of products. For instance, the emission of lead to air from waste incineration plants originates in a number of different lead-containing products. No knowledge exists about the exact significance of the individual product, and it would therefore be wrong to specify the loss to air caused by incineration for each individual product. On the other hand, it does make sense to calculate the amount of lead directed to combustible waste in different groups of products, and thereby, estimate the probable significance of each group of products for the emission caused by incineration of waste. Chapter 3 Accordingly, the turnover and losses by waste treatment are discussed jointly in Chapter 3. This discussion also serves to cross-check the estimates of losses to waste, wastewater etc. made for the individual fields of application in Chapter 2. Chapter 4 Chapter 4 puts the pieces of the jigsaw puzzle together, estimating the total consumption and loss to the environment and setting up the total substance balance for Denmark. In this chapter, comparisons can also be made with previous surveys and foreign analyses, if considered relevant. Appendices The appendices contain additional statistical data and optional extensions of the analysis.
3 Detailed Explanation of the OutlineThe detailed explanation of the outline contained in this chapter follows the main structure shown in Box A1, in that the sections of this Chapter correspond to the main structure. 3.1 'Preface'The preface of the report should be kept short (about 1 page) and include the following subjects:
Background The reason for carrying out the analysis should be specified shortly. Is it an update of a previous analysis or is the substance considered problematic in a specific context? A more detailed description of the purpose of the analysis and international commitments and obligations as regards the use and emissions of the substance should be included in chapter '1 Introduction'. Client, financing Specification of the party (or parties) responsible for initiating and financing the analysis. Acknowledgements Persons and institutions which has contributed substantially may be acknowledged here. Steering Committee/Reference Group The composition of the Steering Committee or Reference Group should be specified. In principle, all members should be mentioned by name and institution. As regards large-scale investigations comprising many representatives of a large number of institutions, however, it is acceptable to just mention the names of the institutions. Authors The authors of the report should be listed by name and institution. This is important to accommodate readers wishing to seek further information. 3.2 'Summary and Conclusions (Summary in English)'Summaries in both English and Danish should in principle be prepared according to the standard outline of the Danish Environmental Protection Agency. These outlines can be find in /Danish EPA 1999/. It is, however, recommended to make an extended summary in English if the report is in Danish and vice versa. In the following the content of the short summary is described according to the standard outlines of the Danish EPA by the fall 1999, but these outlines are revised now and then. Purpose The purpose of the summary is to provide an adequate briefing about the report and its content to the reader willing to invest about half an hour reading it. Outline The chapter should according to the standard outline be divided into:
The content of the first four sections is well described in the standard outlines and only the content of the section 'Main results' will be discussed here. If the analysis cover both consumption and discharges to the environment, it is recommended that ' Main results' is based on:
In addition the probable trends in consumption and release should be discussed. If the analysis include optional extensions, a short summary of these should also be included in the 'Main results' section. Extended summary The extended summary is recommended to be identical to the short summary except for the section 'Main results'. Instead of the overview figure shown in Figure A1 it is recommended to include a more detailed figure similar to in Figure A2 in chapter 3.6. When using the detailed figure the table specifying the release to the environment by sources can be excluded. In addition it is recommended to include tables showing the sources of the substance to solid waste and wastewater. Figure A1
3.3 '1. Introduction'The 'Introduction' includes all information considered relevant as background for the understanding and interpretation of the succeeding SFA. The extent of the introduction will depend on whether the SFA covers a single relatively well-known element or it covers a complex group of chemical substances. 3.3.1 '1.1 Purpose of the Analysis'Background The reason for carrying out the analysis (goal definition) should be specified here in more detail. If the substance is considered problematic in a specific context it should be mentioned. The section should be kept short. International commitments and obligations as regards use and emissions of the substance should be included in the description of the background. 3.3.2 '1.2 Methodology and Limitations'A description of the methodology of the analysis can more or less be covered by a reference to this paradigm. If a specific research methodology has been used it should be mentioned. Interpretation Interpretation of the intervals used for representation of all figures should be specified. What is actually meant by the sentence: ' The total consumption of the substance with application xx is estimated at 200-400 tonnes'. Furthermore, the reference year (or other space of time covered) should be specified. If a specific level of detail has been defined in advance, this should also be stated. Focus areas If the analysis focus on specific parts of the life cycle (se main report about focus areas) the focus area should be specified along with the specification of areas that may be covered with less detail. 3.3.3 '1.3 What is <the substance>?'The sections gives a short introduction to the substance or substance group. The introduction includes relevant physical/chemical properties of the substance or substances. If the substance is an element the section may also include information on relevant chemical compounds. If the substance is a complex group of organic substances the section may be supplemented with an appendix with physical/chemical properties of all substances. 3.3.4 '1.4 International Market and Trends in Consumption'The international market assessment may be carried out at two levels:
The overview assessment is considered part of the core-SFA. Purpose The purpose of this chapter is to provide information on the market of the substance in an international perspective. The exact content of the chapter will depend on the level of detail defined for the chapter, which may be different from the level of detail for the 'core SFA'. The information on the consumption of the substance at global or European level may along with other sources be used for the estimation of the consumption of the substance with imported products. In addition the chapter makes the basis for a comparison of the Danish consumption of the substance to the consumption in other countries, especially EU Member States. Structure There is no general international trade statistics and it is consequently not possible exactly to define which information should be included in this chapter, but it can be defined which information sources should be searched. Overview analysis To the extent information is available the chapter should contain the following information.
Global trends in consumption For the understanding of the global trends in consumption it may be necessary to discuss specific issues regarding the extraction/production of the substance and global market mechanisms. For heavy metals it may e.g. be relevant to discuss whether the metal is extracted as a by-product by the extraction of other metals. Detailed analysis (optional) The detailed analysis should beside the information included in the overview analysis also include the following topics to the extent information is available:
An example of an analysis containing detailed information about the global and European market for the substance based on international market analyses can be found in substance flow analysis for brominated flame retardants (Lassen et al. 1999 B). Information sources, overview analyses If the substance is an element or a mineral, information on global production, consumption by application area and market trends should be summarised from at least Mineral Commodity Summaries and Mineral Yearbook (see. chapter 4.2 of main report). In addition information should be searched from the encyclopaedias Kirk Othmer and Ullmann's and from reports specifically covering the substance in question from OECD, WHO, EU, UNEP and relevant international trade organisations (see chapter 4 of main report). Information sources, detailed analyses For the detailed analyses additional information should be received from international market reports if available and from assessments carried out in neighbouring countries (see section 4.2 of main report). The results of the assessments in neighbouring countries should if included here be discussed together with the Danish results in Chapter '4. Evaluation'. 3.4 '2. Application in Denmark'3.4.1 '2.1 Raw Materials and Semi-Manufactured Goods'Purpose The purpose of this section is to provide information on the supply of raw materials and semi-manufactured goods as registered by Statistics Denmark and discuss how these figures corresponds to the estimated consumption of raw materials for each field of application in Section 3.2 'Fields of Application'. This section should be included in the report if there is Danish production or import to Denmark of the substance as a raw material or a semi-manufactured product. If the substance is only imported to Denmark with finished product this section is not needed and should not be included in the report. The terms 'raw materials and semi-manufactured goods' refer here to the substance in its pure form as well as chemical compounds or alloys of which the substance constitutes a significant part. Materials and alloys of which the substance constitutes only a very small proportion do not need to be included in this section. Production, import and export of scrap and waste products should not be included in this chapter, but included in chapter "3. Turnover with Waste Products': Content The information and evaluations to be included and carried out in this section include:
It should be noted that some of these assessments are based on data, which are introduced in subsequent chapters. In view of the fact that the assessments focus on the supply of raw materials it has, however, been considered appropriate to gather these assessments in this section. Double accounting As mentioned in the previous section the same materials may be processed several times and registered more times under the same item number in the statistics from Statistics Denmark. By way of example imported aluminium profiles are cut into shorter profiles in Denmark. The same profiles are thus registered as both imported and produced. For an estimation of the supply of aluminium profiles for further production processes in Denmark it has been necessary to take this into account /see Lassen et al. 1999 A/. 3.4.2 '2.2 Fields of Application'This section goes through the intended fields of application one by one describing the turnover of the substance in the production and consumption phases. Depending on the pattern of application it may be relevant to have more sections on intended fields of application. Concerning metals, it would, for instance, be reasonable to include a section 2.2 covering the substance as pure metal and in alloys and a section 2.3 covering chemical compounds. Each of these sections may be divided into a number of subsections each covering a field of application. It is recommended to start out with the field of application with the largest consumption of the substance, followed by the application with the second largest consumption, etc. The last subsections most often covers 'other fields of applications'; applications not specifically discussed in the preceding subsections. By detailed analyses 'other fields of applications' should be kept to a minimum and account for less than 20% of the total consumption of the substance for intended purposes. For each field of application, the following aspects should be covered:
If appropriate a level four of headings could be applied to include each of the listed aspects. Description The description should be kept short (max. 1 page per field of application) and precise. It should indicate the included finished products and fields of application as well as the function of the substance in the products. Furthermore, the various technical conditions relevant for the understanding should be explained. If the substance is used in alloys or compounds, the composition of these should be specified. Concerning products in which the substance is evenly distributed in the product/material (e.g. pigments in plastics), it may also be relevant to specify the concentration of the substance in the actual finished product. Production in Denmark The industrial processes taking place in Denmark should be described, including specification of the finished products manufactured in Denmark, and if possible, the number of enterprises involved. Furthermore, it should be specified what raw materials/semi-manufactured goods are utilised as well as the consumption of the substance in raw materials/semi-manufactured goods and the quantity of the substance contained in the finished products. This information will typically have to be obtained from the manufacturers. If the information is not readily available, but has to be calculated on the basis of a number of assumptions, both the assumptions and the calculations must be described in detail. Imports/exports Estimates must be made of the import and export of the substance in finished products. Typically, this estimate will be based on statistical information about the import/export of relevant finished products combined with the calculated average content of the substance in these products. The basis of calculations as well as the actual calculations must be explained in detail. Consumption in Denmark The consumption in Denmark with finished product can then be calculated as Danish production + imports - exports; summarised for all finished products. There may be some confusion about the definition of consumption in Denmark. Note that 'consumption in Denmark' in general covers the consumption of the substance in Denmark with finished products. (see the discussion in section 2.3.3). Trends in consumption and stock building It should be indicated whether the consumption is increasing, decreasing or stagnant. If the field of application covers several types of finished products, it may be relevant to assess each type of finished product separately. If available, historical consumption data about the consumption may also be included. In the case of finished products with a long in-service lifetime, it would be advisable to estimate the extent of stock building in society of the substance as part of these products. This estimate will constitute an important basis for the calculation of losses related to the use of these products (cf. below: 'losses by utilisation'). More detailed analysis of the historical consumption used for scenarios of future disposal and emission may be included as an optional extension (se section 3.7.1) Substituxtes (optional) If the SFA includes the optional extension 'Assessment of substitutes' (see section 3.7.4) a short review may be included here. Losses by manufacture By manufacturing processes in Denmark, there may be losses of the chemical substance to chemical waste, solid waste, wastewater, the atmosphere and presumably also soil. The losses are calculated as the actual discharges from the enterprises after treatment, if any. The size of these losses after treatment should be estimated and it should be indicated how final disposal of the waste and treatment residues takes place. Furthermore, estimates should be made of the volumes of the chemical substance collected for recycling, if any. The main sources of information will be the enterprises, themselves. It is also possible to use information about typical loss and emission factors, which may be obtained from literature or from specialists at research institutions. In some cases, information may be available from supervisory authorities, Kommunekemi (the Danish Treatment Facility for Chemical Waste) and treatment plants who possess knowledge about the discharges or receive residual products. It will, normally, be very difficult to estimate the losses to soil as these are diffuse losses of dust etc. which normally cannot be or are not measured. It is therefore acceptable not to estimate the size of these losses but only indicate whether there is reason to expect significant losses to soil as a result of manufacture. For enterprises with poor facilities for air purification, a significant proportion of the emission to air may consist of particles, which will cause increased deposition of the chemical substance in the area surrounding the enterprise. If considered relevant and possible, this neighbourhood deposition may be calculated and included in the estimate as losses to soil instead of losses to air. Normally, there will not be sufficient resources to carry out estimates going into such detail within the framework of SFAs. Losses by use The size of losses by use of the products depends on the nature of the finished products and fields of application. Some products (e.g. washing powder) are lost 100% while being used (residues may be deposited with the packaging). Other products are subject to a certain degree of wear and tear or corrosion, but will be practically intact at the time of disposal. The estimate of the losses during use requires both information about relevant emission factors and information about the volume of products accumulated in the society. The loss by use is calculated as the total loss of the substance from products in use during the reference year independent on the age of the products. In practise, losses by use can only be estimated with a high degree of uncertainty (cf. disposal). Disposal The quantities of the substance discharged to waste, wastewater etc. or recycled by discarded products should be estimated. If the consumption is stagnant and has been so for a period of time exceeding the in-service life of the products in question, the estimate may be based on the present consumption (subtracted the losses by utilisation), and supplemented by an assessment of the probable disposal method. It is relevant to distinguish between the following waste fractions (cf. Chapter '3. Turnover with Waste Products'):
If there is a clear increase or decrease in the consumption, it will be necessary to base the estimate on historical consumption data from a range of years corresponding to the in-service lifetime of the finished products. Such calculations are rough estimates, which will be subject to a high degree of uncertainty. However, these calculation are necessary to carry out cross-checks of the volumes of waste collected etc. For this reason alone, the estimates are valuable in spite of the uncertainties. Exposure (optional) A qualitative description of the exposure of man by use and disposal of finished products is an optional extension of the SFA. The description should focus on the use and disposal phases. Both consumer and occupational health issues in connection with the use and disposal of the products should be covered, whereas occupational health in connection with the production of raw materials and manufactured products is excluded. The description should include:
When describing possible exposures it is relevant to distinguish between exposure by 'good practice' and by 'reasonable worst case'. Good practice is application of the products in accordance with the guidelines given by authorities or producers; whereas ' reasonable worst case' includes common deviations from these guidelines. Exposures by 'reasonable foreseeable misuse' where the products are used unwarrantably should not be included. Summary of the entire section At the end of the entire section, there should be a subsection including a short summary based on a table indicating for each field of application the present consumption, trends, annual recycling as well as annual loss of the substance to air, soil, water/wastewater, solid waste, chemical waste and others. This summary helps the reader maintain an overall view of the situation. At the same time, the summary is valuable to the author, as it serves as a checklist (have all relevant issues been dealt with?). 3.4.3 '2.3 Consumption as Trace Element and Contaminant'For most substances there are a turnover of the substance as natural trace element or anthropogenic contaminant in other products. Although the substance is not intendedly consumed this turnover will be designated 'consumption as trace element and contaminant'. This section cover relevant fields of consumption explaining the turnover of the chemical substance in the production and consumption phases as well as, if relevant, throughout the remaining part of its life cycle. The section is divided into a number of subsections, each including a field of application. Heavy metals will typically be consumed as a trace element in coal, oil, wood, fertiliser, feedstuff, agricultural chalk and other fields of application. For heavy metals as for other elements, it applies that, due to the fact that they are natural parts of the environment, they will occur in varying concentrations in most of the products used in society. For other substances, the application as contaminant has to be estimated in each individual case. Content The subjects covered in the explanation of each field of application as trace element and contaminant correspond largely to the subjects specified for 'fields of application'. Coal Considering the consumption as trace element in coal, it would thus be relevant to consider the following issues:
Oil and other fuels As regards the consumption as trace element in oil and other fuels, it will be relevant to consider the following issues:
Fertilisers, feedstuff, etc. Concerning the application as trace element in fertiliser, feedstuff and agricultural chalk, it will, accordingly, be relevant to consider the following issues:
The above lists are meant as examples. In practice, it will be necessary to consider the life cycle of the substance for each individual field of application as trace element and contaminant. Summary The section includes a short summary based on a table indicating, for each field of application, the present consumption and trends as well as the annual loss of the substance to air, soil, water/wastewater, solid waste, chemical waste and other end points. 3.5 '3. Turnover with Waste Products'3.5.1 '3.1 Recycling of the Substance'This section summarises the information about recycling of the substance as a pure substance, as an alloy and as a chemical compound. This information is compared to the available statistical data on production, import and export of waste products for recycling. Furthermore, estimates are made of emissions as a result of recycling activities. Statistics The section is opened with a table showing statistical data on production, import and export of relevant scrap and waste products based on the statistics from Statistics Denmark. The statistical information on production of scrap is actually somewhat curious and very difficult to interpret and it is usually necessary to obtain additional information from the main scrap dealers to estimate the actual turn over with waste products for recycling. The scrap and waste often consist of composite products and it is necessary to estimate the specific concentration of the substance. The substance may also be exported in mixed waste fractions for recovery abroad. As an example copper is partly exported in a mixed metal fraction from shredders registered as 'zinc scrap' as zinc is the main constituent. Cross-checks These statistical data are compared to the result of the summary of the information on recycling activities from all 'fields of application' in chapter 2. In case unexplainable inconsistency is registered when the balances are first set up, it may become necessary to check the estimates made for recycling of the substance from all 'intended fields of application'. Losses by collection, sorting and stock building Inconsistency can sometime be explained by losses and discharges by collection, sorting and stock building of recyclable materials. It is, however, not possible to set up general rules, and it will be necessary to look into this question for each chemical substance. Experience shows that it is very difficult to estimate losses and discharges, at this stage - particularly losses to soil. Rough estimates based on mass balances are therefore acceptable provided that a description of the actual processes proves it probable that the estimated losses do, in fact, occur. This section does not include any assessment of the losses and discharges by actual industrial processing of the chemical substance etc. If such processes take place, the assessment hereof should be included in Section 2.1'Raw Materials and Semi-manufactured Goods' or Section 2.2 'Fields of Application'. 3.5.2 '3.2 Other Turnover with Solid Waste'This section includes an assessment of the turnover of the chemical substance as a result of the treatment and final disposal of solid waste including incineration, composting, landfilling and recycling of waste products. Recycling of the chemical substance itself is not discussed in this section (included in Section '3.1 Recycling of the Substance'). This assessment also serves to cross-check the quantities of the substance estimated to end up in solid waste. A prerequisite for the assessment is that monitoring data exists of the chemical substance in solid waste and in the residual products and emissions resulting from the treatment of solid waste. Data will typically be available for the most common heavy metals whereas data for chemical compounds including organic substances are scarce. If the available data are insufficient, the assessments will either have to be discontinued or based on theoretical models or a monitoring programme will have to be initiated. Note that quantities of residual products will normally represent wet weight whereas the concentration of the substances in the residual products most often is measured per dry weight. For the calculation of the total turnover of the substance with residual products it is thus necessary to know the water content of the products. Assuming that adequate data are available to carry out the assessment, it may, in principle, cover the following issues:
It would be appropriate to cover each of these issues in a separate subsection. If the turnover by recycling of materials is very complex, it may be relevant to have separate subsections for each material, e.g. a subsection for paper, one for plastic, one for metals, etc. Quantities and methods In the subsection about quantities of waste, the total annual volume of solid waste in Denmark by types of waste, methods of treatment and final disposal should be indicated. This information serves as a basis for further evaluation. The level of detail will depend on the requirements as to the accuracy of distinction between different types of waste and methods of treatment and final disposal. Considering methods of treatment and final disposal, there should typically be a distinction between recycling, biological treatment (composting/biofermentation), thermal treatment (incineration) and landfilling . It might be appropriate to include, in this subsection, a general assessment of the sources of the chemical substance to solid waste. This means that a list should be set up of the expected sources of the substance to solid waste with discarded products etc. An estimate of the size of these sources will have been made in connection with the discussion of the different intended fields of application and the turn over as trace element and contaminant. When setting up this list, a distinction should be made between the different methods of treatment and final disposal, as specified above. Thus, a general overview of the situation is achieved which will be useful in the evaluation of sources to be carried out in the subsequent subsection. Recycling The subsection(s) concerning recycling include(s) an assessment of the substance flows and discharges of the chemical substance by recycling and processing of waste materials such as plastic, paper, iron and steel, electronic waste, etc. General guidelines cannot be given for this assessment, as it will depend on the substance in question and its fate by these recycling and processing methods. It is important for the assessment to end up with an estimate of the quantities of the chemical substance which:
Biological treatment Here, biological treatment includes composting and biofermentation. This subsection includes an assessment of the substance flow through facilities for these treatments. The assessment should at least include the following components:
Monitoring data on the content of the chemical substance in different fractions of waste should be subject to critical evaluation (cf. Box A2). If the waste is inhomogeneous, the results of monitoring will normally mainly reflect the general background content in the waste rather than the total content. In spite of this, it would be sound practice to present existing knowledge, i.e. existing monitoring data. Danish data are preferable, but foreign data may be included, where Danish data are not available, if such data are considered to be representative of Danish waste. Monitoring data concerning residual products (e.g. finished compost) will typically be reliable (subject to the general uncertainty related to sampling and chemical analysis) due to mixing and homogenisation of the waste which takes place as part of waste treatment operation. A critical evaluation of these data should be made, as well, in order to identify possible systematic biases (have plastic bits been removed from the compost before analysis etc.?). Series of measurements should be referred to by mean values and standard variation. If no monitoring data exist about sifting residue, the only practicable way to calculate the content of the chemical substance in sifting residue will be to make an estimate on the basis of a source assessment (see above). In this evaluation, it should be kept in mind to include waste products such as sewerage sludge. The resulting assessment will inherently be uncertain and, most likely, cross-checks cannot be performed. As regards a number of chemical substances, particularly substances used as additives in plastic etc., it should be expected that a significant part of the content of the chemical substance in compost and residual products from biological treatment plants stems from plastic etc., which has been taken to pieces as a result of the mechanical processes (sifting, turning of winndows, etc.) which are part of the treatment process. A source assessment (see above) may therefore be essential in order to understand and explain the concentrations of chemical substances, which can be measured in the residual products. The extent to which a full mass balance should be established and a source assessment carried out has to depend on the significance of the substance flow through the biological treatment plant as compared to other types of waste treatment. Waste incineration This subsection should include an assessment of the substance flows by solid waste incineration. The assessment should at least include the following components:
As regards solid waste incineration plants, it will normally be possible to work out mass balances for heavy metals and other elements. Data can be obtained on the content of the substance in slag, fly ash, flue-gas cleaning residues and flue gas (remember possible steam emission and amounts supplied by ancillary materials for flue gas cleaning). Note when working out the balances that the volumes of residues are usually given in wet weight, whereas the concentration is given per dry weight. On this basis, an estimate can be made of the content of the substance in the waste incinerated. On the contrary, it is likely not possible to establish mass balances for chemical compounds which may be degraded/transformed as a result of thermal treatment, e.g. dioxins. Source assessment should also be carried out in connection with waste incineration. In this assessment, it is important to remember waste products from other types of waste treatment such as fragmentation residue from scrap yards, sifting residue from biological treatment plants, sewage sludge etc. Considering heavy metals and other elements, the source assessment will constitute a cross-check, as the expected total amount of supplies should be in accordance with the result of the mass balance of waste incineration plants. As regards organic compounds and other chemical compounds, the source assessment will, in most cases, be the only way of achieving an estimate of the supplies to waste incineration plants. As in the case of biological treatment plants, it has to be evaluated whether the source assessment carried out for such facilities can be made sufficiently reliable to be trustworthy. As regards final disposal of residual products, it may be relevant to assess the leaching from residual products used for construction works. It should be noted that, in the case of chemical substances not easily soluble in water, the discharges will normally be marginal and should only be included in detailed SFAs. As regards chemical substances, which are highly soluble in water, these discharges should be included, also in overview analyses. It should be noted that, in the summaries included in the reports, landfilling includes the utilisation of residual products for construction works. The reason for this is the fact that utilisation for construction works typically requires notification of and registration by the authorities. However, the utilisation of small amounts of slag/ash does not require notification and should therefore, in principle, be regarded as a loss to soil. The total amount of residual products and thereby the amount of the substance thus supplied/lost to soil should, of course, be estimated, if possible and if the amounts are considered to be significant.
Box A2
Landfilling This subsection includes an evaluation of substance flows by landfilling. The evaluation should at least include:
It will probably be difficult to carry out mass balances for landfills due to the lack of reliable monitoring data concerning the content of the chemical substance in the waste supplied to the landfill. Moreover, the significance of possible degradation of the chemical substance during treatment (only relevant for organic substances) should be taken into account. The only possible way to achieve an estimate of the supply of the chemical substance to waste deposits will most likely be to make an estimate on the basis of a source assessment (cf. biological treatment plants and waste treatment plants). In this assessment, it is important to include waste products such as sewage sludge and residual products from biological treatment plants, waste incineration plants etc. The assessment will probably be subject to a certain degree of uncertainty and can hardly be cross-checked. It must be stated how effluents from landfills are treated and discharged. 3.5.3 '3.3 Turnover with Chemical Waste'This section aims at evaluate the discharges to the environment by treatment of chemical waste in Denmark and to carry out cross-checks on the estimated loss of the chemical substance to chemical waste carried out for each field of application in Chapter '2. Application in Denmark'. The section should thus cover:
The section should not cover chemical waste processed or exported for recycling of the chemical substance. These issues will be covered in Section '3.1 Recycling of the Substance'. Types and amounts supplied to waste Based on the assessments undertaken in Chapter '2. Application in Denmark', a list is made (in the form of a table) of all supplies of the chemical substance to chemical waste. In principle, this list should indicate the source and type (pure substance, chemical compound etc) as well as the quantities (tonnes/year). Furthermore, indication may be made of the facilities to which the relevant type of chemical waste is delivered or at which final disposal takes place (Kommunekemi or others). Reception To the extent possible, data should be obtained from Kommunekemi and other disposal facilities about the quantities of waste received by types of waste. Kommunekemi may not have such detailed information, however. In that case, information should be obtained from Kommunekemi about possible imports/exports of waste, about discharges to air and water and about the quantities deposited in the form of ash, slag and filter cake. On this basis, it should be possible to make an estimate of the total amounts received. It should be considered whether degradation of the chemical substance will take place during treatment. Anyhow, it is important to consider whether there is reasonable accordance between the expected amounts received and the amounts, which can be registered by Kommunekemi. Possible discrepancies should be explained. It should be noted that Kommunekemi might also receive polluted soil and that other disposal channels exist for some substances - some of which are approved, and some are not. By way of example oil is widely incinerated at other approved plants than Kommunekemi. 3.5.4 '3.4 Turnover with Wastewater and Sewage Sludge'This section should include an assessment of the content of the chemical substance in sewage sludge as well as the size of discharges and substance flows by wastewater treatment and disposal of sewage sludge and other residual products. At the same time, the assessment will constitute a cross-check to verify the amounts of the substance estimated to end up in wastewater. To what extent the assessment can be carried out depends on the existence of monitoring data concerning the content of the chemical substance in wastewater and sewage sludge. Data will typically be available for the most common heavy metals and persistent organic compounds. However, for many chemical compounds no data are available. If the available data are inadequate, the substance flow analysis will either have to be abandoned at this point, a special monitoring programme will have to be initiated or the estimates has to be based on theoretical models. Assuming that adequate data are available to carry out the evaluation, it should include:
Quantities The total annual amount of wastewater in Denmark should be indicated as a basis for further evaluations. A minor part of this amount will be discharged to soil via infiltration plants and the rest is supplied to wastewater treatment plants or discharged directly to the aquatic environment. Moreover, some rainwater is discharged directly to the recipient. The extent to which these conditions should be taken into consideration depends on the level of detail of the analysis. Existing monitoring data Data on the content of the chemical substance in wastewater, rainwater and sewage sludge should be collected and specified (if possible). Such data may be obtained by personal contact to wastewater treatment plants or from literature. It is important to make sure that these data are representative. Furthermore, the literature should be consulted to obtain information about the typical efficiency of treatment at wastewater treatment plants aimed at the chemical substance and an assessment should be made as to whether there is reasonable concordance between these data and the registered concentrations contained in wastewater and sewage sludge. Modelling If monitoring data do not exist this part of the analysis must be excluded or 'best estimates' may be obtained by modelling on the basis of e.g. physical chemical properties of the substance, experiences with analogous substances or experiences from other countries. It should be clearly noted in the report if emissions are estimated on the basis of models. For instance, the concentration of the substance in effluents from wastewater treatment plants may be estimated if the concentration in influents, the efficiency of treatment facilities and the physical/chemical properties of the substance is known. Source evaluation A list should be drawn up of the expected sources of the chemical substance in wastewater and rainwater. This list should be based on the estimates of loss to wastewater made in Chapter '2 Application in Denmark', and the other sections of this chapter. Subsequently, an evaluation should be made as to whether there is reasonable concordance between this list (total amount supplied) and the actual monitoring results concerning the content in wastewater, rainwater etc. and to what extent inconsistencies can be explained. Assuming that there is reasonable concordance, it should be possible, at this point, to make a qualified estimate of the total content in wastewater and of the substance flow through wastewater treatment plants. Sewage sludge If some of the chemical substance is likely to end up in sewage sludge, indication should be made of the ways in which sewage sludge is disposed of (landfilling, agricultural soil or incineration) and of the loss to the environment thus taking place. It would be relevant to make a distinction between losses to air, soil and solid waste and, if relevant, destruction. 3.5.5 '3.5 Summary'This section sums up all types of waste disposal in Denmark. The section is based on a table indicating, for each disposal way, the annual loss of the substance to air, soil and water as well as the quantities estimated to be incinerated, deposited or recycled/stocked in society in new products. This summary helps the reader maintain an overall view of the situation. At the same time, the summary is valuable to the author, as it serves as a checklist (have all relevant issues been dealt with?). 3.6 '4. Evaluation'3.6.1 '4.1 Fields of Application and Consumption in Denmark'This section sums up the available information and estimates concerning the consumption of the chemical substance for different purposes in Denmark. It is recommended to base the section on a table listing the different fields of application in as much detail as possible. For each field of application the consumption in absolute (tonnes/year) and relative figures (%) as well as the trend in consumption (downward/upward/stagnant) should be indicated. The text in this section will focus on the conclusions that can be drawn from the table, i.e. total consumption, main fields of application and development trends. Moreover, the uncertainty on the consumption should be indicated. In the case of updates of previous analyses, the results of such analyses should also be shown and the trends in consumption commented on. 3.6.2 '4.2 Discharge to the Environment in Denmark'This section should sum up the available information and estimates concerning discharges to the environment of the substance in Denmark. As in the case of Section '4.1', it is recommended to base the section on a table listing the different sources of discharge in as much detail as possible. For each source the discharges in absolute figures (tonnes/year) to air, water, soil and landfills should be indicated. As a footnote to this table, it should be indicated how much of the volumes deposited that is utilised for construction works. The text in this section should focus on the conclusions, which can be drawn from the table, i.e. total discharge to air, soil and water and the amount deposited as well as the main sources of these discharges and losses. Moreover, the uncertainty of the data should be addressed. In the case of updates of previous analyses, the results of such analyses should also be indicated and the development commented on. 3.6.3 '4.3 Substance Balance for Denmark'This section aims to provide a general view of the main flows of the substance in Denmark. Here, it is recommended to base the section on a figure similar to that shown in Figure A2. An important element of the figure is the calculation of the stock building of the chemical substance taking place in the Danish society. This stock building is calculated on the basis of a mass balance including all imports and exports to/from the Danish society. The stock building will most often be positive, but for e.g. 'sunset chemicals' negative stock building are seen. Apart from this, a brief explanation of the main elements of the figure is sufficient. Figure A2 3.7 'References'References are indicated in accordance with normal practise for scientific reports. Based on the reasons stated in the main report, it would, however, be appropriate only to indicate the names of enterprises, from whom consumption figures have been obtained in a specific appendix entitled 'Enterprises Contacted '. 3.8 'Appendices'The report should at least include the following appendices:
Apart from these appendices the following optional extensions will be discussed in the following:
The titles of these appendices should only be considered suggestions. Other appendixes may of cause be included as well if necessary. 3.8.1 Scenarios for Future Loss of the SubstanceThe appendix is an optional extension to the SFA. The analysis can be carried out at two levels:
The core SFA includes an assessment of the actual loss of the substance to the environment and landfills. The analysis, however, does not include any forecast of the potential losses of the substance in the future. For many substances there is at the moment a continuous accumulation of the substance in the society and the losses are consequently lower than the present input of the substance into the society. By way of example the consumption of aluminium profiles for wood window frames has increased markedly during the last years, but due to the durability of the windows only small amounts of aluminium profiles are at the present disposed of with the windows. Discussion of models for prediction of future emissions and examples of application of the models to case studies can be found in Voet et al. 1999. The object of the appendix is to study the sustainability of the present recycling and disposal of the substance and to analyse the future effect of different regulating actions. By the initiation of the SFA is will be necessary to define which application areas should be covered by the appendix and the space of time for the scenarios. Simple scenarios Simple scenarios can be developed by presuming that the present consumption and disposal pattern continues until a steady state is attained. At that moment the sum total of loss and recycling will counterbalance the consumption. Such a simple 'business as usual' scenario can provide very useful information regarding the sustainability of the current consumption and disposal pattern, but often more exact scenarios are demanded. Detailed scenarios A more detailed scenario for the future loss of the substance imply for each product covered by the assessment the following:
Information about the loss of the substance by use and disposal of the products will most often based on the present use and disposal of the products. Life-time distributions Information on life-time distributions of the products can be obtained from the technical literature, producers, distributors and users of the products. It should, however, be emphasised that the actual life-time of the products may be different from the technical life-time. After use the products may be stored for some time in lumber-rooms and lofts or the product may be used in summer houses etc. where it is actually only used for a short time of the year. These effects have had a significant influence on inter alia the life-time distribution of electronic products, where the amount of discarded products has been significantly lower than expected from the technical life-time distributions. Historical figures Historical consumption figures can be obtained from Statistics Denmark, if the products can be unequivocally identified by relevant commodity numbers. Most often this is not the situation and it will be necessary to combine statistical information with information from obtained from previous consumption assessments and persons with years of experience in the relevant line of business. A similar approach may be used within the core SFA for estimation of the amount of the substance accumulated in the society and the total loss of the substance with specific products with e.g. solid waste. The approach is however more time consuming than usually allocated for the assessment of the accumulated in the society. An example of the application of this approach can be found in SFA for cadmium 1999 where the actual disposal of cadmium with NiCd batteries to solid waste is calculated from life-time distributions and historical consumption figures of NiCd batteries for different applications /Drivsholm et al, in press/. Scenarios for the future disposal Development of scenarios for the future disposal pattern will include considerations about the extent of recycling of the products in the future. The recycling rate will depend on the development in recycling technology, market mechanisms and governmental regulation of recycling and recovery. It is recommended to develop more scenarios where one of the scenarios is the "Business as usual" scenario. Input The input will depend on the number of application areas covered by the scenarios. It should be noted that each application area might cover many product types with different life-time distributions. The simple scenarios will take approximately three to six man-week for all application areas. It is estimated that the detailed scenarios for the first application area will approximately take one to four man-weeks dependent on the number of different product types; the following application areas will take less. 3.8.2 Occurrence and Fate in the EnvironmentThe appendix is an optional extension to the SFA. The object of the appendix is to provide an overview of the occurrence of the substance in the environment in Denmark. This information is aimed to be used in combination with other studies to provide a basis for decisions regarding the need for further minimisation of emissions of the substance to the environment. For the discussion of the distribution of the substance in the environment, physical/chemical properties and fate of the substance in the environment is shortly described. It should be emphasised that the appendix should not include data on the toxicity and do not contain a risk assessment or risk evaluation. If a risk assessment is needed it is recommended to carry it out as a separate project. The assessment should at least include:
An example on organotin compounds can be found in Stuer-Lauridsen et al 1998. This study, however, includes both occurrence and fate in the environment and a hazard and risk evaluation. Monitoring data The assessment should include a comprehensive summary in tabular form of existing monitoring data from Denmark covering the following compartments:
The table should be based on published and unpublished data (if possible) from the National Environmental Research Institute, the Environmental Protection Agency, the National Forest and Nature Agency, GEUS, County Environment Departments and Universities. Literature should be searched in relevant databases; ASFA among others. Monitoring data on the concentration of about 100 substances in sediments will from the mid 2000 be available in the ATLAS database of the Danish EPA. If monitoring data from Denmark do not exist or are scarce the summary may include literature data from other countries; in order of priority: the Nordic countries, EU Member States, OECD countries, Global. The table should include both mean values and minimum/maximum values to indicate the range of concentration of the substance in the environment. If the range is wide it is relevant to discuss the basis for the variation: data quality, point sources, hotspots, etc. Discharges Discharges to the environment identified in the SFA should be summarised in tabular form. The table should include both discharges that have been quantified and discharges that only qualitatively have been identified. Fate of the substance An assessment of the fate of the substance in the environment can be a rather extensive study, but will here be limited to a listing of relevant physical/chemical properties in tabular form and a short review of environmental chemical properties of the substance. The aim of the review is to form a background for a discussion of the observed distribution of the substance in the environment. The relevant properties depend on whether the substance is an element or an organic chemical. For organic chemicals relevant physical/chemical properties would be: Solubility, Henry's Law constant, octanol-water partition coefficient, pKa and distribution coefficient. For elements relevant properties are less well defined but relevant properties will be: Solubility, speciation in various media (water, soil, sediment, air) and physical/chemical conditions (pH, O2 concentration, alkalinity). Attention should be paid on soluble or immobile species. In addition the fate of the substance in the environment should be described as regards bioconcentration, degradation, biodegradation and biotransformation. The data sources for this part of the assessment are numerous including databases as HSDB (Hazardous Substances Data Bank), IUCLID (International Uniform ChemicaL Information Database), ENVICHEM (Environmental Properties of Chemicals). For this reason it is for each assessment necessary clearly to define the strategy of data retrieval; which databases are searched and which properties are evaluated? The strategy of data retrieval will be closely connected to the level of detail and reliability of the assessment. As minimum it is recommended to search HSDB, ENVICHEM, IUCLID and SAX's Dangerous Properties of Industrial Materials. Mackay distribution If the substance is an organic chemical a Mackay level 3 distribution is calculated /Mackay & Patterson 1991/. The distribution represents the steady state distribution of the substance between air, soil, water and sediment when the actual discharges to the compartments are used as input-parameters. Discussion The properties concerning distribution and bioaccumulation should finally be discussed in relation to the concentrations actually found in water, sediment and aquatic organisms. Input The input for this appendix will be very dependent on whether the SFA covers a single element or a large group of chemicals. If the SFA covers a large group of chemicals it may be most appropriate to report this assessment in a separate publication. The input for a single substance will approximately be a half to two man-month. 3.8.3 National and EU legislation on Use RestrictionThe appendix is an optional extension to the SFA. The object of the appendix is to give an overview over the current legislation on use restriction in Denmark and the EU. The appendix should not include information on other regulation concerning the substance, e.g. limit values for the substance in wastewater, municipal sludge, etc. Outline The current Danish regulation of the use of the substance is chronologically gone through. For each act or statutory order the following is stated:
EU directives not implemented in Danish legislation should shortly be described by the end of the appendix. Information on legislation can be found in:
Input The input for this appendix will be approximately between a half and one man-week. 3.8.4 Assessment of SubstitutesThe appendix is an optional extension to the SFA. The object of the appendix is to provide detailed information about possible substitutes to the substance in question. The assessment of substitutes may only cover some of the applications of the substance and it is by the initiation of the assessment necessary to define which applications are covered. Outline For every fields of application covered by the appendix possible substitutes are described. The substitutes are described at different levels (see below). The levels included in the assessment should be defined by the initiation the assessment. For each substitute technical advantages and disadvantages should be described. Obstacles for substitution e.g. that new machinery and tool are needed if the substance is to be substituted should also be described. The assessment is summarised in a table listing the substitutes at the different levels. Levels of substitution It assessment of substitutes are included in the SFA a short summary of the substitution assessment may be included for each application area within the main part of the report. Substitution may take place at three different levels: A: Substance level substitution: The substance can be replaced with another substance B: Composite or compound level substitution: The substance makes part of a composite/compound material, which can be replaced by other composite/compound. C: Service level substitution: The service provided by the substance (or composite/compound) can be obtained by a totally different solution. By example brominated flame retardants used for flame retardancy in computer monitor housings may be replaced by other flame retardants (A), the plastic compound/flame retardant system may be replaced by another plastic compound/flame retardant system (B), or fire safety may be obtained without the use of flame retardants by changes in the construction of the monitor (C) /Lassen et. al 1999 B/. In the following the term substitutes will also include alternative solutions. The substitutes can be described at four levels and it should be defined whether the assessment is to cover only some of the levels. For each of these levels, substitution may take place at the three levels of substitution mentioned above. The resulting matrix is shown in the following table.
Information sources The information on substitutes can be obtained from technical literature, technical experts and suppliers of raw material, semi-manufactures and finished products. It will often be necessary to make direct contacts to technical experts in development departments and laboratories of foreign companies e.g. the large chemical companies. The contact can be established through the Danish branches or agents of the companies. It should be noted that discussion at the first level, 'potential alternatives not technically approved' often will be very difficult and requires that the authors have an extensive technical knowledge about the subject. Price of alternatives An assessment of the economic feasibility of substitution includes beside an assessment of the prices of alternatives also e.g. costs of new machinery and tools for processing of the alternatives and is a quite extensive study. The price of the alternative is only on aspect and could solitary described be misleading. If a comprehensive substitution feasibility assessment is carried out it is proposed to report the assessment in a separate publication. It is therefore proposed not to include any economic considerations in this appendix. A new paradigm for assessment of the economic feasibility of substitution has recently been developed by the Danish EPA. Input Input will be dependent on the number of applications and levels covered by the assessment. The input for an assessment at all levels for one application will approximately be one to three man-weeks. It is proposed by the initiation of the project to define the number of applications covered by the assessment and for each application to fill in the matrix shown above to define the included levels. 3.8.5 Recycling, Downcycling and Material DeteriorationThe appendix is an optional extension to the SFA. There is at the moment a tendency toward a more widespread technically optimisation of materials by composing the materials of many different elements, minerals or chemical compounds. This applies for polymers, metal alloys and composites and mineral composites; in the following all designated 'composites'. In addition the components are often covered by inseparable surface layers of other materials. For instance aluminium is optimised for different specific applications by alloying the aluminium with a large number of other metals. The aluminium products may in addition be surface treated with thin layers of metals or other materials /Lassen et al. 1999 A/. When the materials are collected for recycling they are often mixed resulting in secondary materials with a more limited application range than the primary materials and problematic components (e.g. heavy metals) may be spread to materials where they do not have any explicit function. Issues related to the recycling of the materials are discussed in this appendix. Outline The appendix should include (the order illustrates the lineout of the appendix):
The appendix is closed by a summary including a discussion of the assessment. It should be noted that "downcycling" in the analysis should be put in two perspectives: a resource perspective and a contamination perspective. For problematic substances as heavy metals "downcycling" is a way the substances are dispersed in the technosphere to areas where they are undesired. In addition the "downcycling" makes a "decontamination" of the technosphere more difficult. For problematic substances the analysis should include considerations about the time perspective of the "downcycling" helix; when can the substances introduced into the technosphere be expected to be disposed of as waste or discharged to the environment? Information sources The information on collection and recycling can be obtained from recycling companies, technical literature and technical experts. It will often be necessary to make direct contacts to recycling companies and technical experts in foreign countries. The contact may be established through the Danish recycling companies or technical experts. The companies web-sites at the Internet may also be an entrance. Input The input will be dependent on the number of application areas covered. By the initiation of the SFA is should be defined which application areas are covered by the appendix. There is only very limited experience with this extension in SFA's and the input has to be estimated separately for each substance. ReferencesDanish EPA. 1999. From manuscript to publication. Guide for printed publications. http://www.mst.dk/fakta/40000000.htm. (In Danish) Drivsholm, T.; E. Hansen; J. Maag & S. Havelund. Substance flow analysis for cadmium. The Danish EPA (in press). Hansen, E. 1979. Cadmium in household waste. Master Thesis. Laboratory for Sanitary Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, 1979. (in Danish). Hansen, E. & N.J. Busch. 1989. Consumption of and pollution by lead in Denmark. Environment Project no. 105. Danish EPA, Copenhagen. (in Danish) Hovsenius, G. 1977. Rate of generation and composition of household waste in Laxå. SNV PM 902. Statens Naturvårdsverk, Stockholm. (in Swedish) Jensen, A.& J. Markussen. 1992. Consumption of and Pollution by Cadmium. Environmental Project No. 213. Danish EPA, Copenhagen. (in Danish). Lassen, C.; E. Hansen; T. Kaas & J. Larsen. 1999 A. Aluminium - substance flow analysis and loss reduction feasibility study. Environmental Project No. 484. Danish EPA, Copenhagen. (in Danish) Lassen, C.; S. Løkke & L.I. Andersen. 1999 B. Brominated flame retardants. Substance flow analysis and assessment of alternatives. Environmental Project No. 494. Danish EPA, Copenhagen. Mackay, D. & S. Patterson. 1991. Evaluation the multimedia fate of organic chemicals: A Level III fugative model. Env. Sci. Tech. 25: 427-436. Stuer-Lauridsen, F., C. Lassen, N.J.Jensen & C. Poll. 1999. Environmental evaluation of organotin compounds in plastic and polymers. Environmental Project No. 429. Danish EPA, Copenhagen (in Danish). Voet, E. van der.; R. Klein; R. Huele; M. Ishikawa & E. Verkuijlen. 1999. Predicting future emissions based on characteristics of stocks. Proceedings of the Conference "Nature, Society and History", 1999, Vienna. http://www.univie.ac.at/iffsocec/conference99/index.html Appendix 2Approximate Man-hour Inputs In the table below the input of man-hours for the core SFA and optional extensions is summarised. The proposed inputs should be considered as reference values, and the actual input has to be determined specifically for each substance in question.
The specification of focus areas is estimated not to influence the total budget, as inputs are allocated from one area to another. Appendix 3SFA System Definiton TableThe System Definition Table at the next page is meant to facilitate the delimitation of the analyses when SFA projects are initiated. In the following a number of questions that may be helpful for the delimitation is listed. SFA or consumption assessment? Is it actually a substance flow analysis that is needed or would information on the consumption of the substance in Denmark be satisfactory? Level of detail Is the aim of the analysis to provide a basis for action plans and regulation of the substance or is it to provide a preliminary overview?
Extensions Is it expected that imported finished products account for the main part of the Danish consumption of the substance? Is it expected that the Danish consumption of the substance will be significantly different from the consumption in other EU Member States? - exposure Is there a limited knowledge about the exposure of man by use and disposal of finished product? Is it expected that the substance will be released at significant levels during use? - future emissions Is it expected that emissions and loss of the substance in the near future will be significantly different from the emissions and loss today? Would this influence the decisions to be taken now? - national and international regulation Is there a need for an overview over national and international regulation on the use of the substance? - assessment of substitutes Could the lack of substitutes be an obstacle for the regulation of the substance? Should development of substitutes be financially supported? - recycling and downcycling Is the present recycling of the substance or the materials containing the substance in fact a downcycling? Does the present procedures for collection and recycling of the materials containing the substance lead to deterioration of the materials? -occurrence and fate in the environment Is there a need of an overview of the occurrence of the substance in the environment? Focus areas - marginal applications Does considerable knowledge already exist about the main fields of application and is there a need for very specific information on marginal applications e.g. because regulation of the use of the substance is under consideration? - specific compounds Are there particular environmental or health problems in connection to the use of specific substances within the substance group? - chemical state of emitted compounds Are there specific environmental or health problems, which are dependent on the chemical state of the emitted compounds? - parts of the life cycle Are there specific environmental or health problems connected to a particular stage of the life cycle: Production, use, or disposal?
Table 2 1) A table for specification of the levels of the substitution assessment is included in Appendix 1, section 3.7.4
Appendix 4List of Danish Substance Flow AnalysesIn the following a comprehensive list of national level SFAs carried out in Denmark is included. The list is organised into metals and organic substances. Most of the SFAs can be downloaded from the webpage of the Danish EPA. All the SFA's except the analysis for brominated flame retardants are in Danish. Most of the reports include an English Summary.
References
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