Prudent development - a shared responsibility
4 Climate change
In the long term, the atmospheric content of greenhouse gases must be stabilised at a level sufficiently low to prevent man-made hazardous impacts on the climate. Unavoidable climate change must take place at a pace that allows ecosystems to adapt and ensures that food production is not threatened. At the same time, economic development must be maintained on a sustainable basis.
In an international context, Denmark has a high emission of CO2 per inhabitant, which gives us a special responsibility. Via the agreement to reduce emissions of six greenhouse gases by 21 per cent between 1990 and 2008-12, Denmark makes a serious contribution to the Kyoto Protocol and thus to the prevention of global climate change. Because of the scale of the problem, there is a great need to further reduce emissions after 2012. The Government's target is therefore to halve CO2 emissions by 2030.
According to the most recent analyses from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, climate change is considered the greatest global environmental problem and possibly the biggest global challenge of this century. Today, CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is about 30 per cent higher than before the industrial revolution, and in all likelihood this figure will double within a few decades. During the same period, the global mean temperature has risen by 0.6°C, triggering changes in snow and ice caps, heavy precipitation and other climate conditions, demonstrating that there is a high probability that climate change is already taking place.
In its latest report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that we may expect further increases in global temperatures of between 1.5°C and 6°C during the next century. Climate change, a rise in sea levels of between 15 and 95 centimetres, changes in the level of precipitation and, probably, more extreme weather conditions will be the consequences. The greatest negative impacts of climate change are expected in developing countries, not least in the light of threatening floods and reduced scope for food production. In Denmark, climate change may result in warmer winters, increased precipitation and more storms in the long term. This may impact on biodiversity and sectors such as agriculture, forestry and fisheries. Low-level areas may be flooded as a result of the rise in sea levels.
Since 1990, Denmark's national objective to reduce CO2 emissions by 20 per cent by 2005 compared to 1988 has formed the basis of Danish policy. The Energy 21 action plan from 1996 strengthened Denmark's position as a frontrunner in the energy field. In other sectors, such as transportation, agriculture, forestry and waste, the strategies and/or action plans adopted also play a key role in the prevention of greenhouse gas emissions.
Under the Kyoto Protocol of 1997, the participants agreed that total greenhouse gas emissions from the developed countries must be cut by at least 5 per cent in 2008-2012 compared to 1990. Against a scenario without the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol, this amounts to a 20-30 per cent reduction. The Kyoto Protocol is the first important step towards implementation of the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. However, several issues concerning the instruments of the Kyoto Protocol must be clarified before the agreement can expected to enter into force.
Based on the conclusions of the UN Panel on Climate Change, the EU ministers for the environment recommend stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level slightly under twice that of pre-industrialisation concentrations and that the global temperature increase should not exceed 2°C compared with preindustrialisation levels. If this recommendation is to be met, by the end of this century the developed countries must most likely reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases to a level corresponding to 10-15 per cent of today's emissions. This calls for considerable cuts in greenhouse gas emissions - between 2 and 2. 5 per cent per year.
More renewable energy From 1988 to 2000, CO2 emissions (adjusted for climate variations and net electricity exports) fell by 11 per cent. A "double decoupling" has taken place: during a period of considerable economic progress, energy consumption has all but stagnated and CO2 emissions have been reduced significantly. An important explanation of the decline in CO2 emissions is that, during the same period, production of renewable energy increased considerably from just under 6 per cent to just under 11 per cent of total gross energy consumption. The aim is for this share to increase to 35 per cent by 2030. Electricity production from wind turbines quadrupled between 1994 and 2000. The value
of wind turbine production now amounts to over DKK 13 billion. The greater part of this
production is exported. |
This presupposes a drastic reduction of resource consumption. Considerable technological
progress is needed, as is a change of consumption and production patterns in the developed
countries. At the same time, significant restraints in the long term must clearly be
implemented in the developing countries, which can expect continued population growth and
major economic developments.
Despite such reductions, it is a fact that climate change cannot be averted completely; it can only be lessened. The effects of climate change may also be mitigated through provident adjustment. To achieve sustainable development, research and knowledge are needed, not only on reduction potentials, but also on future climate change and its effects as well as the options for adjustment. This is paramount if we are to live up to national and international challenges, especially in the long term.
Objectives and activities 2001-2006
In 2005, the aim is to cut Danish CO2 emissions from energy consumption by 20 per cent compared to the 1988 level. Pursuant to EU agreements on distribution of EU emission reductions under the Kyoto Protocol, Denmark must reduce total greenhouse gas emissions by 21 per cent in 2008-2012 compared to 1990. In addition, the target is to halve the greenhouse gas emissions of the industrialised countries by 2030. If, in the long term, greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere are to be reduced further, international goals must be set for much bigger reductions after the expiry of the Kyoto Protocol in 2012.
The Government regularly monitors progress and whether we are "getting our money's worth of environment". To meet the objectives of the Kyoto Protocol, the Government has taken a number of new initiatives and strengthened existing initiatives in all sectors, for example energy production, transport, agriculture, forestry, industry and households.
In terms of energy production, a green electricity market and new CO2 quotas will result in increased use of renewable energy and natural gas.
In the area of transport, the objective is for this sector to reduce its emissions of CO2 by 7 per cent compared to a business as usual scenario. Innovations in more energy-efficient transport technologies supported by economic instruments, behaviour influences and better physical planning must contribute to achieving this objective.
Agriculture must also contribute considerably to the reduction of climate gases such as methane and nitrous oxide (laughing gas). In the spring of 2001, the Government presented an action plan for ammonia that will contribute to a reduction of climate gas emissions from agriculture. But initiatives such as expanded biogas plants can also contribute to reducing emissions.
With respect to forestry, the increase in woodland areas will lead to absorption of CO2 during the generation of new forests, increasing the scope for biomass use. This is one reason why the Government aims at doubling woodland areas within one tree generation (80 to 100 years).
It is necessary to reduce emissions of heavy industrial greenhouse gases such as HFCs, PFCs and SF6. Taxes on these gases have therefore been introduced.
The Danish Energy Savings Act of 2000 provides for strengthened planning, coordination and prioritisation of overall energy savings initiatives.
At international level, Denmark is working actively to make the Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol efficient instruments in the fight against climate change. Danish development assistance under the developing countries' framework and the Environment, Peace and Stability Fund (MIFRESTA) helps developing countries and countries in Central and Eastern Europe to comply with the Convention on Climate Change, for example in the form of technology transfer and capacity development. These activities are and should be in accordance with the priorities of the countries in question as specified in the Convention.
Environmental assistance may also encourage the use of the flexible mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol by implementing projects to build up specific knowledge and capacity in developing countries and countries in Central and Eastern Europe. This initiative may enable the partner countries to better evaluate the sustainability of various projects. For example, Denmark participates in a pilot programme on Activities Implemented Jointly in the Baltic countries. But these flexible mechanisms should only be used to the extent that they result in genuine environmental improvements.
Denmark also supports The Global Environment Facility (GEF), which since 1991 has donated more than USD 1. 2 billion to developing countries and countries in Central and Eastern Europe for climate issues. Denmark also supports the UNEP's Collaboration Centre on Energy and the Environment at the Risø National Laboratory in Denmark.
Denmark regularly reports to the Convention on Climate Change regarding the prevention of climate change, expected results of climate change, compliance measures, research and monitoring initiatives and Denmark's activities with regard to technology transfer and capacity building in the developing countries. The third report will be available by November 2001.
We must realise that climate change cannot be averted completely, only lessened. Based on the most recent report of the Panel on Climate Change, the Government will conduct an analysis of possible climate effects and draw up potential development scenarios to establish a foundation for the necessary emergency measures. We must therefore also carry out research on the consequences of climate change. Increased focus on knowledge will aid important political decisions.