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Environmental Review, no. 1, 2002

Waste Statistics 2000

Contents

1. Introduction

In 1993, the ISAG (Information System for Waste and Recycling) was used for the first time. The 2000 reports are the eight consecutive reports.

Reports to the ISAG for 2000 cover 407 plants distributed on 299 enterprises. In 1999, reports covered 420 plants distributed on 313 enterprises.

Waste Statistics 2000 follow almost the same layout as in previous years’ statistics. Chapter 2 describes general developments in waste generation, whereas Chapter 3 presents recycling of waste.

Chapter 4 deals with generation and treatment of hazardous waste, and in Chapter 5 developments in imports and exports are described, both for ordinary waste and waste subject to mandatory notification.

In Chapter 6, a detailed description of developments in waste amounts and treatment of waste from different sources is given. Furthermore, figures are compared to targets for treatment in year 2004 in the Danish Government’s Waste Management Plan 1998 - 2004, Waste 21.

Chapter 7 gives an outline of Danish incineration plants and landfills.

In Chapter 8, a baseline projection of developments in waste generation up to year 2020 is presented. The baseline projection is supplemented with a projection including the effects of the initiatives in Waste 21 on the distribution of waste on treatment options.

The following statements summarise briefly waste generation in 2000:

	Total waste generation in 2000 amounted to 13,031,000 tonnes, which is 7 per cent more than in 1999.
	If amounts of residues from coal-fired power plants are kept apart from statistics, there has been an increase in waste generation of 921,000 tonnes, corresponding to 8 per cent.
	The overall rate of recycling amounted to 65 per cent, which is above the overall recycling target for year 2004 of 64 per cent.
	Waste amounts incinerated accounted for 24 per cent, which is unchanged from 1999 and in line with the overall target for incineration in 2004.
	Waste going to landfill amounted to 11 per cent, which is better than the overall landfill target for year 2004 of a maximum of 12 per cent.
	Targets for treatment of waste from the different sectors, however, are still not complied with – too little waste from households and the service sector is recycled, and too much waste from industry is led to landfill.

2. Waste generation and treatment

2.1 Waste generation 2000 and developments 1999 – 2000

Waste generation in 2000 and developments in waste arisings from 1999 to 2000 are presented in Table 1.

It is seen from the table that total waste generation, after a stabilisation in 1998 and 1999, increased to 13,031,000 million tonnes in year 2000. This corresponds to an increase of 7 per cent from the 1999 waste generation.

However, it is too early to determine whether the increase reflects a trend of increasing waste arisings in future. Such interpretations should await the 2001 waste statistics.

Table 1.
Total waste generation in Denmark

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Waste arisings in households in 2000 amounted to 3,084,000 tonnes, corresponding to an increase of 3 per cent from 1999. The total increase, however, covers considerable variations between the different types of waste from households. Domestic waste amounts remain almost unchanged from the previous year; there has been a slight increase of 11,000 tonnes. As Table 1 shows, amounts of domestic waste in the period 1994 – 2000 have been relatively stable, showing only small variations over the years¹.

Amounts of bulky waste and garden waste also increased in 2000, with 9 per cent and 12 per cent respectively. The group "other" decreased slightly. However, this group only constitutes a small part of waste from households and therefore has no significant impact on total amounts.

The generation of waste in the service sector² in 2000 amounted to 1,119,000 tonnes, which is as much as 17 per cent more than in 1999 – in actual figures an increase of 164,000 tonnes. The increase is distributed on all fractions, but it should be noted that amounts of the mixed fractions "various combustible" and "various non-combustible" increased by 11 per cent and 13 per cent respectively, amounts of food waste/other organic waste increased by 19 per cent, whereas amounts of health-care risk waste increased by 28 per cent. Amounts of separated paper and cardboard collected for recycling increased by around 3 per cent.

Amounts of waste from industry³ also increased. From this source, the increase amounts to 295,000 tonnes from 2,653,000 tonnes in 1999 to 2,948,000 tonnes in 2000, corresponding to 11 per cent. The increase is found in the separated fractions of paper and cardboard, food waste/other organic waste, ferrous metals for recycling and various non-combustible that increased by 53 per cent, 25 per cent, 21 per cent and 15 per cent respectively. By contrast, the fractions various combustible, hazardous waste and beet soil have shown a decrease of 14 per cent, 13 per cent and 2 per cent respectively.

The generation of waste in the building and construction sector also was larger in 2000 compared to 1999 – construction and demolition waste amounts reached 3,223,000 tonnes, which corresponds to 255,000 tonnes or 9 per cent more than in 1999.

Sludge from municipal wastewater treatment plants amounted to around 1,476,000⁴ tonnes in 2000, stated in wet weight. This is 97,000 tonnes more than in 1999, corresponding to an increase of 7 per cent.

Waste generation at coal-fired power plants decreased by 9 per cent corresponding to a decrease from 1,299,000 tonnes in 1999 to 1,176,000 tonnes in 2000. This is due to the fact that energy generation was lower in 2000 than in 1999. It is remarkable that for the first time in the period 1994- 2000 Denmark had net imports of power in year 2000. Another significant reason for the decrease in residues from coal-fired power plants is that energy to a still larger extent is generated from other fuels than coal and coke⁵.

2.2 Treatment of waste in 2000

In the following, developments in treatment of total waste arisings are presented. Furthermore, treatment is related to targets for treatment in the Danish Government’s Waste Management Plan 1998 – 2004, Waste 21.

Table 2 shows that 8,461,000 tonnes corresponding to 65 per cent of total waste arisings were recycled in 2000. In actual figures this is an increase of 646,000 tonnes or an increase of 1 percentage point compared to 1999.

Table 2.
Waste generation by treatment option 1996 - 2000, and target for year 2004

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Waste led to incineration in 2000 amounted to 3,064,000 tonnes. This is actually an increase in amounts of 135,000 tonnes, but the rate of total waste amounts remains unchanged at 24 per cent. Waste led to landfill in 2000 amounted to 1,489,000 tonnes, which is a minor increase of 17,000 tonnes from 1999. The rate of waste landfilled amounts to 11 per cent of total arisings.

As the table shows, the relative distribution in recent years among treatment options has varied only little. Variations are often explained by developments in amounts of the different fractions. For example, variations in amounts of residues from coal-fired power plants and construction and demolition waste have large implications on the total rate of recycling, as these two waste types generally have a rate of recycling of 90 per cent or more.

According to Waste 21, short-term targets for stabilisation of waste generation are supplemented by a number of qualitative elements such as better exploitation of resources in waste, quality in treatment of waste and mitigation of problems caused by environmental contaminants in waste.

Overall, targets for sectors and fractions mean that the rate of recycling will increase, that more waste is incinerated, and that the need for landfilling will decrease. Overall targets in Waste 21 for waste management in year 2004 are 64 per cent recycling, 24 per cent incineration and a maximum of 12 per cent landfilling.

As Figure 1 shows, overall targets for waste treatment were already complied with in 1999. In 2000 a further diversion among treatment options has taken place, so that actually the rate of waste for recycling is higher than the target for year 2004. Correspondingly, the target for waste for landfilling has been met with a good margin.

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Figure 1
Treatment of waste in Denmark 1994-2000 and target for 2004

This is believed to be attributable to the ban on landfilling of waste suitable for incineration that came into effect on 1 January 1997. But other factors play a role.

First of all, amounts of residues from coal-fired power plants have decreased significantly, and they are furthermore recycled to a larger extent than in previous years when they were mainly landfilled.

Another significant factor is sludge. Sludge in long-term storage has been included in recycling and amounted to 510,000 tonnes in 2000. The correctness of including long-term storage in recycling may be questioned as there is no guarantee that sludge is actually recycled as intended. Furthermore, sludge consists of 99 per cent of water and therefore has a disproportionate impact.

2.3 Treatment of waste, WITHOUT residues and construction and demolition waste

Amounts of residues from coal-fired power plants not only depend on energy consumption in Denmark, but also on exports of power to Sweden and Norway. In addition, due to Energy 21 a still larger diversion is taking place from the use of coal and coke as a fuel to the use of natural gas and renewable energy.

Since 1996, when Denmark exported particularly much power to Sweden and Norway, amounts of residues have decreased steadily – actually there has been a decrease of 1,156,000 tonnes, corresponding almost to a 50 per cent reduction.

Naturally, this has an impact on developments of total waste amounts, but as residues have a very high rate of recycling, it also has an impact on compliance with overall treatment targets.

A similar picture is seen for construction and demolition waste. As discussed in section 6.2, the rate of recycling of construction and demolition waste typically reaches around 90 per cent.

Therefore, it is interesting to look at the distribution of waste on the different treatment options if residues and construction and demolition waste are kept apart from statistics.

Figure 2 shows the distribution on the different treatment options when residues from coal-fired power plants are kept apart from statistics.

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Figure 2
Treatment of waste in Denmark 1994-2000 without slag, fly ash etc. (coal)

When residues are kept apart it is seen that 61 per cent of the remaining waste was recycled in 2000, which is an increase of 757,000 tonnes from 1999.

The rate of remaining waste incinerated in 2000 is 26 per cent, which is slightly less than in 1999. The rate of waste for landfilling is 13 per cent, which is identical to 1999.

In absolute figures this means in 2000 that apart from residues 11,855,000 tonnes of waste were generated. Of this, 7,285,000 tonnes were recycled, whereas 3,064,000 tonnes were incinerated and 1,489,000 tonnes led to landfill. 17,000 tonnes – similar to 1999 – were subjected to special treatment.

Total waste amounts without waste from coal-fired power plants increased by 33 per cent from 1994 to 2000.

In Figure 3 also waste from the building and construction sector has been kept apart from statistics. This causes a decrease in the rate of remaining waste for recycling, whereas the rates for incineration and landfilling increase.

Residues from coal-fired power plants and construction and demolition waste are recycled to a very large extent: in 2000, 100 per cent and 90 per cent respectively, cf. Chapter 6. It is seen that these two fractions play a very significant role in the compliance with overall waste treatment targets in Waste 21.

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Figure 3
Treatment of waste in Denmark 1994-2000 without slag, fly ash etc. (coal) and without C & D waste

2.4 Treatment by sources and waste types

Figure 4 shows total waste generation in 2000 distributed on sources and treatment options. Figure 5 shows waste generation distributed on waste types and treatment options. Tables with detailed figures are given in Annex 1.

Figure 4 shows that especially waste from the building and construction sector, coal-fired power plants and wastewater treatment plants reach a very high rate of recycling. Waste 21 targets for recycling have been met for waste from these three sectors.

The rate of recycling of waste from industry is also relatively high: 64 per cent, and the target of a 65 per cent recycling rate has almost been met. The high rate of recycling, however, is especially attributable to recycling of ferrous metals. Still too much waste from this sector is led to landfill - 21 per cent against the target of only 15 per cent, and there is a challenge ahead to divert larger amounts of the other fractions from landfilling to incineration or recycling.

The rate of recycling of waste from the service sector is not sufficient compared to the target in Waste 21. In 2000, 40 per cent of waste was recycled compared to the target of 50 per cent. However, there was an increase in the rate of recycling of 3 percentage points from 1999.

The target of 45 per cent incineration has been complied with, but also in this sector too much waste is led to landfill; 14 per cent compared to the target of 5 per cent. The challenge here is to divert more waste from landfilling to recycling.

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Figure 4
Waste generation in Denmark 2000, by source and treatment option

Treatment of the waste type domestic waste does not comply with the targets in Waste 21, cf. Figure 5. Only 14 per cent of this waste was recycled in 2000. Actually, this is a decrease from 1998 and 1999 when the rate of recycling amounted to 17 per cent and 15 per cent respectively.

The target is to reach a rate of recycling of 30 per cent in 2004, whereas the targets for incineration and landfilling are 70 per cent and 0 per cent respectively. The rate of domestic waste incinerated in 2000 reached 81 per cent, whereas 5 per cent was led to landfill⁶.

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Figure 5
Waste generation in Denmark 2000, by waste type and treatment option

2.5 Developments in waste generation 1994 - 2000

Total waste generation in Denmark in the period 1994 – 2000 distributed on commercial sources is shown in Table 3.

As the table shows, the 2000 amounts of waste were the largest in the period 1994 – 2000. Until 2000, waste amounts peaked in 1996.

The large amounts in 1996 were primarily due to particularly high amounts of residues from coal-fired power plants in 1996 – which again was due to large exports of power to Sweden and Norway.

There was an increase of 16 per cent in amounts of waste from 1994 to 1996, after which amounts decreased up to 1999: by approximately 5 per cent.

Table 3
Total waste generation in Denmark

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If the entire period from 1994 to 2000 is considered, waste amounts have increased by 17 per cent. Of this, 7 percentage points are explained by developments from 1999 to 2000 alone. The increase in the first half of the 1990s may be due partly to the fact that coverage of the ISAG system has increased and partly to real increases in waste amounts.

3. Recycling

3.1 Recycling distributed on fractions

Table 4 shows the share of the different waste fractions that are separated for recycling in the form of either reprocessing, composting or biogasification The table is not an outline of total amounts generated of each fraction.

Table 4
Recycling in Denmark in 1996 - 2000 of waste from primary sources, distributed on waste fractions. In '000 tonnes

Sources: ISAG and, (1) Association of Danish Recycling Industries and other large scrap dealers, (2) Elsam and Energi E2, (3) Reports to the Danish Environmental Protection Agency on sludge from municipal wastewater treatment plants applied to farmland etc. Figures from 1999 have been used. Sludge in long-term storage has been included in amounts for recycling, (4) Adjustment for ferrous metals removed from waste incineration plants has been made to avoid double counting. Some of the collective terms such as "Other recyclables", "Other construction and demolition waste" and "Soil and stone" may contribute – after separation has been completed – to additional quantities of items such as tiles, wood etc.

As the table shows, 8,460,000 tonnes of waste were recycled in 2000, which is 8 per cent or 645,000 tonnes more than in 1999. This increase may be attributed to large increases in recycling of especially paper and cardboard, garden waste, ferrous metals, concrete and tiles. By contrast, there was a slight decrease in the recycling of hazardous waste, bottles and glass and fly ash and slag.

3.2 Paper and cardboard

Total collected waste paper in 2000 amounted to 735,000 tonnes. This is an increase of 142,000 tonnes from total amounts collected in 1999. Some of the increase from 1999 to 2000 is explained by a correction of reporting to the ISAG.

In the quality control of reports for 2000 it was seen that one plant until today has registered incorrectly the commercial source of collected paper.

The registration for 2000 from the plant was therefore changed so that around 100,000 tonnes were registered as paper from primary sources instead as from secondary sources.

The incorrect registration also took place in previous years, and this explains to a high extent the previous large difference between Waste paper collected and Danish waste paper sent to Danish paper mills + Net exports.

Table 5
Consumption and recycling of paper and cardboard 1995 - 2000. In '000 tonnes

Sources: (1) Material stream analysis of waste paper. (2) ISAG reports. (3) Statistics Denmark. (4) There is still a minor discrepancy between waste paper collected, and Danish waste paper sent to Danish paper mills + net exports. This may be due to stock enlargement, and it may concern paper of poor quality that is led to other treatment than recycling after separation.

Table 6 shows the distribution of collected paper on sources. Not surprisingly, the largest amounts of waste paper are collected from households, the service sector⁷ and industry.

Amounts of waste paper collected from households increased slightly by around 1,800 tonnes from 1999 to 2000. Since 1997, amounts of paper collected from households have remained stable at around 180,000 tonnes⁸.

In the quality assurance of data for 2000 several plants have reported that they have seen a decrease in amounts collected from households.

One of the explanations is believed to be the establishment of more recycling centres for industry and the fact that local authorities to a higher extent enforce the ban on enterprises delivering waste to ordinary municipal recycling centres that are reserved for households.

In the ISAG, waste delivered to a recycling centre is registered with the commercial source "recycling centre/transfer station". Thus, it is not stated whether waste originated from households or other commercial sources.

Therefore, the ISAG secretariat has redistributed waste from "recycling centres/ transfer stations", cf. Annex 2. All bulky waste with the source "recycling centres/ transfer stations" and covering the fraction "paper & cardboard" will have its source changed to "households". This is done due to the assumption that recycling centres are reserved for households. However, there are indications that some of this paper and cardboard actually originates from industry.

The enhanced focus from local authorities on reserving recycling centres for households may have led to a more "correct" distribution of collected paper on sources. However, this is only the present theory that must be verified when ISAG reports for 2001 have become available. In these, recycling centres themselves will distribute waste on sources, cf. the latest Statutory Order on Waste No. 619.

Amounts of waste paper collected from the service sector increased by around 6,200 tonnes. Amounts of paper collected from industry also increased. However, in the latter case the above-mentioned incorrect registration will explain around 100,000 tonnes of the increase.

Table 6
Collection of waste paper by source. 1996 - 2000. Tonnes.

Source: ISAG reports 1996- 2000. (1) Note that a double registration seems to have taken place in 1998, leading to around 20,000 tonnes too high amounts.

Consumption of virgin paper and the rate of collection of waste paper in the period from 1995 to 1999 are shown in Table 5. Note that the statement of virgin paper consumption for 2000 is not yet available.⁹

3.3 Plastic

Plastic collected for recycling registered in the ISAG amounted in 2000 to 40,000 tonnes, which is an increase of 2,000 tonnes from 1999. However, it is assumed that some plastic has been collected and exported directly for recycling abroad without having been registered at a Danish treatment plant. It is therefore probable that larger amounts have been collected for recycling in Denmark than the 40,000 tonnes.

The fraction plastic covers both production waste and waste plastic packaging. Every year, detailed statistics are prepared for waste plastic packaging. Statistics for waste plastic packaging in 1999¹⁰ show that in 1999 22,400 tonnes of waste plastic packaging were reprocessed in Denmark. A minor part of the waste was imported: 8,400 tonnes.

In 1999, 19,500 tonnes of waste plastic packaging were collected in Denmark. Of this, 19,000 tonnes were recycled, and 5,100 tonnes were exported for recycling abroad.

Total amounts collected correspond to 11 per cent of total Danish consumption of plastic packaging. This is a steep increase from 1998, when 7 per cent of waste plastic packaging was collected for recycling. Waste plastic of the type polyethylene (PE) accounted for 80 per cent of collected amounts.

3.4 Bottles and glass

According to ISAG reports 108,000 tonnes of bottles and glass were collected for recycling in Denmark in 2000. This is 14,000 tonnes less than in 1999.

With the ISAG, however, a complete picture of total material streams is not obtained. Of special importance is recycling of glass during which several collection, reuse and treatment steps have been passed before glass becomes waste.

As a consequence, in the following description of total recycling of glass, ISAG information is supplemented with information from Statistics on glass packaging, 1999¹¹, cf. Figure 6.

Figur 6
Consumption, collection and recycling of glass and bottles 1990-99.

Source: Statistics on glass packaging 1999, Ole Kaysen, Econet. Environmental Project No. 601, 2000.

Consumption of glass packaging has been on the increase throughout the 1990s, peaking in 1997 with 190,000 tonnes. Since then, consumption decreased to 167,000 tonnes in 1999.

Also collection and recycling of glass packaging have been increasing. In 1999, however, amounts of collected glass were unchanged from 1998: 126,000 tonnes. By contrast, amounts of recycled glass increased by 5,000 tonnes from 1998, up to 123,000 tonnes in 1999.

This means that the rate of collection of total consumption in 1999 reached 75 per cent – an increase of 7 percentage points compared to 1998. The rate of recycling of total consumption in 1999 reached 74 per cent, which is an increase of 10 percentage points compared to 1998.

Bottles for beer and soft drinks manufactured for reuse are not included in this statement. Refillable glass bottles, on average, make 30 trips. If these bottles were manufactured as single-use bottles, it would give an increase in waste glass of around 310,000 tonnes.

3.5 Ferrous metals

Table 7 shows amounts of ferrous scrap collected, distributed on consignees. For 2000, it is seen that 1,089,000 tonnes of ferrous scrap were recycled, and this is a significant increase of 124,000 tonnes compared to 1999.

Table 7
Recycling of ferrous scrap 1996 - 2000. In '000 tonnes

Sources: (1) ISAG reports, (2) Information from the Association of Danish Recycling Industries and other large scrap dealers. Remark that the statement used in table 7 is slightly different from the statement in table 3. For example, the adjustment for ferrous scrap removed from waste incineration plants has not been made.

Total potential of ferrous scrap is not known precisely. Recycling industries normally estimate a recycling rate in excess of 90 per cent for ferrous scrap.

According to ISAG reports, the Danish Steel Works and other Danish foundries imported 220,000 tonnes of ferrous scrap in 2000, whereas scrap dealers imported around 16,000 tonnes. Total imports in 2000 thereby amounted to 236,000 tonnes of ferrous scrap, which is 16,000 tonnes less than in 1999.

Scrap dealers exported 689,000 tonnes of ferrous scrap in 2000, which adds up to net exports in 2000 of 673,000 tonnes.

3.6 Organic waste for composting, wood chipping and biogasification

Amounts of organic waste led to reprocessing in the form of either composting, wood chipping, biogasification or fodder production are shown in Table 8.

Organic waste led to reprocessing in 2000 amounted to 1,197,000 tonnes. This is 152,000 tonnes more than in 1999. This increase is particularly attributable to an increase in amounts of sludge for composting: 84,000 tonnes more in 2000 than in 1999 – but also to an increase of 43,000 tonnes in amounts of garden waste for composting/wood chipping.

Table 8
Amounts of organic waste 1995-2000 delivered to composting, wood chipping and biogasification, and removal from plants of compost, wood chips and screenings. Stated in '000 tonnes.

Source: ISAG reports do not include information whether organic material is reprocessed as compost, wood chips or biogas. The table is designed on the basis of estimates and calculations from ISAG reports.

Amounts of organic domestic waste from households led to biogas plants have been halved from 1999. The reason is that local authorities in the area around the city of Elsinore no longer collect domestic waste for biogasification. By contrast, amounts of organic waste from other sources than households led to biogasification were 32,000 tonnes larger in 2000 than in 1999.

Quantities of bark/wood chips and compost removed from the plants do not reflect the quantities generated. This quantity should be considered as reflecting the quantity sold or delivered free.

It is seen from the table that amounts of sold/removed bark/wood chips were around 2,000 tonnes larger than in 1999, whereas amounts of sold/removed compost were 44,000 tonnes larger than in 1999.

3.7 Tyres

In 1995, the Minister for Environment and Energy entered an agreement with a number of organisations, on a take-back scheme for used tyres from cars, vans, and motorcycles.

The purpose of the agreement is to ensure collection and recycling of used tyres in Denmark. Landfilling is avoided and resource recovery ensured, whereby material recovery is prioritised to energy recovery.

The scheme started 1 April 1995 and is financed by a fee on tyres comprised by the agreement and marketed in Denmark.

According to the agreement, the target is a take-back rate of at least 80 per cent.

As per 1 April 2000 the scheme was extended to cover tyres for all types of motor vehicles. Therefore, there is a data leap from 1999 to 2000 in the statement in Table 9. The table shows that the 2000 collection rate reached around 99 per cent, and almost all tyres covered are thus collected.

Table 9
Collection of car, van and motorcycle tyres. Tonnes.

Source: Statement from Danish Environmental Protection Agency for the period 1.7.95 - 31.12.95 and reports from the Danish Tyre Trade Environmental Foundation for 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999 and 2000. 2^nd half 1995 includes 1,000 tonnes collected in the first half of 1995, thereby increasing the collection rate.

4. Hazardous waste

Table 10 shows generation and treatment of hazardous waste in 1999 and 2000 by main groups. The statement covers waste from both primary and secondary sources. A detailed statement by ISAG fractions is found in Annex 3.

Waste from secondary sources, such as waste from incineration plants, is not included in total waste generation, cf. Table 1. This is due to the fact that waste would otherwise be counted in statistics twice: the first time upon reception at the primary treatment plant and the second time as a residue. However, it is reasonable to include waste from both primary and secondary sources in the assessment of capacity needs for management of hazardous waste.

Table 10
Generation and treatment of hazardous waste in 1999 and 2000. Tonnes.

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Hazardous waste from secondary sources amounted in 2000 to 104,000 tonnes, which is 12,000 tonnes less than in 1999. By far the major part – around 97,000 tonnes – were exported for landfilling or storage. In 1999 only around 67,000 tonnes were exported. The large increase in exported amounts is probably attributable to the introduction of a ban on landfilling of waste from flue gas cleaning in Denmark.

5. Imports and exports of waste

5.1 Imports

Table 11 shows amounts of waste imported in 1999 and 2000 distributed on waste fractions and treatment options. 556,000 tonnes of waste were imported in 2000, which is 66,000 tonnes more than in 1999.

Amounts of waste imported in 2000 correspond to around 4 per cent of total Danish waste generation.

Table 11
Imports of waste in 1999 and 2000 stated by fraction and in tones

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80 per cent of waste imported is categorised under the EU regulation on shipments of waste¹² as so-called green waste for recovery. Green waste covers primarily glass, paper and cardboard, plastic, ferrous metals, as well as organic waste. Green waste is not subject to mandatory notification under the EU regulation on shipments of waste.

Waste imported of the category "other combustibleable" is destined for incineration with energy recovery and covers oil and chemical waste of different kinds. This type of waste is subject to mandatory notification and is consequently listed in Table 13.

5.2 Exports

Table 12 shows amounts of waste exported from Denmark in 1999 and 2000. Amounts of waste exported in 2000 corresponded to around 11 per cent of total Danish waste generation.

In 2000, waste exports amounted to 1,478,780 tonnes or around 186,000 tonnes more than in 1999. The increase is especially attributable to an increase in amounts of ferrous metals exported, residues from waste incineration plants and other waste subject to mandatory notification such as waste oil and residues from iron and steel manufacture. A detailed statement of amounts exported of waste subject to mandatory notification is found in Table 13.

Around 77 per cent of waste exported from Denmark in 2000 belongs to the category green waste for recovery, concerning mainly the fractions paper and cardboard and ferrous metals.

Table 12
Exports of waste in 1999 and 2000 stated by fraction and in tonnes

Source: (1) ISAG reports, (2) Statistics Denmark, (3) Association of Danish Recycling Industries and other large scrap dealers, (4) Registrations according to Council Regulation No. 259/93 on the supervision and control of shipments of waste within, into and out of the European Community, (5) Elsam and Energi E2, (6) Collectors of nickel-cadmium batteries registered by the Danish Environmental Protection Agency.

5.3 Imports and exports of waste subject to mandatory notification

Table 13 shows countries of export and import of waste subject to mandatory notification. Waste subject to mandatory notification means waste that must be notified to the competent authorities of dispatch and the competent authorities of destination according to Council Regulation No. 259/93 on the supervision and control of shipments of waste within, into and out of the European Community.

It is seen from the table that in 2000 Denmark imported around 8,500 tonnes for disposal, which is 1,200 tonnes less than in 1999. Most of this waste originated from Ireland, concerning mainly different kinds of oil and chemical waste¹³.

In 2000, Denmark imported around 107,600 tonnes of waste for recovery. This waste mainly came from Norway, Sweden and Germany and concerned mostly oil and chemical waste, but also sewage sludge and slag from iron manufacture.

Amounts of waste imported for recovery thereby increased considerably compared to 1999 with imports amounting to around 76,000 tonnes. The increase is due to considerable imports of oil emulsions from Sweden: around 40,000 tonnes.

Waste subject to mandatory notification exported for disposal in 2000 amounted to around 119,000 tonnes or 62,000 tonnes more than in 1999. This waste was exported to Norway and Germany and concerned mainly residues from incineration plants.

In addition, Denmark exported around 106,000 tonnes of waste subject to mandatory notification for recovery. This is an increase of 10,000 tonnes from 1999. Countries of destination of this waste were primarily Finland, Spain and Germany. This waste covered mainly metallic ashes and residues, waste oil, waste from processed cork and wood and lead batteries.

Table 13
Imports and exports in 2000 of waste subject to mandatory notification. Stated in tonnes.

Sources: Danish Environmental Protection Agency, database of shipments. The registration is made on the background of completed consignment notes under EU Regulation 259/93 on shipments of waste. The consignee must send a copy of the filled-in consignment note to the competent authorities within three working days after receipt of the waste. No later than 180 days after receipt, a certificate of recovery of the waste must be submitted. OECD-codes are defined in Commission Decision of 21^st October 1994 (no. L 288/36, Official Journal of the European Communities of 9^th November 1994).

5.4 OECD- codes

6. Waste sources and status compared to targets for 2004

6.1 Residues from waste incineration plants

Figure 7 shows amounts of residues (slag, fly ash, and flue gas cleaning products) from waste incineration in 1994 to 2000, stated in tonnes, as well as treatment option.

Residues from waste incineration plants have not been included in statements of total waste generation presented so far, as waste would otherwise be counted twice. However, residues constitute a significant waste fraction, and it is necessary to register amounts to ensure sufficient capacity for the management of residues.

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Figure 7
Treatment of residues from waste incineration 1994-2000 and target year 2004

By far the largest proportion of residues is recycled – in 2000 the rate of recycling reached 80 per cent, which is 3 percentage points more than in 1999. However, residues cannot be recycled if there is a high risk of leaching of heavy metals – in that case they will be led to landfill.

According to Waste 21, environmental contaminants such as PVC, impregnated wood and waste electrical and electronic equipment may no longer be assigned to incineration. This means that heavy metal contents in slag will drop significantly.

However, at the same time requirements for recycling will become more stringent in consideration of groundwater, and therefore targets from the previous plan of action are maintained in Waste 21, which means a target recycling rate of 70 per cent.

Table 14 presents the use of residues from waste incineration. Amounts of residues from waste incineration naturally depend on amounts of waste incinerated. Slag and flue gas cleaning products account for around 20 per cent and 3 per cent respectively of waste feed.

Table 14
Slag, fly ash and flue gas cleaning products removed from waste incineration plants in 1996 - 2000.

Source: Calculations based on ISAG reports and registrations according to the EU regulation on shipments of waste. Remark that Table 14 and Figure 7 cannot be compared directly, as exports are not included in Figure 7.

The table shows that residues from waste incineration in 2000 amounted to around 562,000 tonnes, which is 30,000 tonnes less than in 1999. Of the amount removed of 562,000 tonnes, 195,000 tonnes were landfilled and 388,000 tonnes were recycled. This means that amounts of fly ash and flue gas cleaning products in storage have been reduced by around 21,000 tonnes.

6.2 Waste from building and construction activities

Waste from the building and construction sector amounted in 2000 to 3,223,000 tonnes, which is an increase of 255,000 tonnes or 9 per cent.

By far the largest proportion of construction and demolition waste is recycled. The distribution of waste on the different treatment options in 2000 is unchanged from 1999; 90 per cent was recycled, whereas 2 per cent was incinerated and 8 per cent landfilled, cf. Figure 9.

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Figure 9
Treatment of waste from building and construction activities 1994-2000 and target year 2004

The figure shows that recycling of construction and demolition waste increased by 6 percentage points in the period 1994 to 2000. Correspondingly, the rate of construction and demolition waste led to landfill decreased by 7 percentage points.

The figure also shows that the distribution among the different treatment options since 1997 has been in total compliance with the 2004 targets for treatment.

The high rate of recycling for construction and demolition waste is partly due to the fact that recycled waste is exempt from the waste tax, contrary to waste landfilled or incinerated. Furthermore, a circular¹⁴ on municipal regulations regarding separation of construction and demolition waste with a view to recycling came into effect in 1995. And finally, the Ministry of Environment and Energy has entered an agreement with the Danish Contractors' Association on selective demolition of building materials.

There is, however, still scope for improving waste management. In future, special efforts shall be made to separate and treat the types of construction and demolition waste that are most harmful to the environment, such as PVC and impregnated wood.

Finally, "cradle-to-grave" assessments and environmentally correct design shall be used more extensively in connection with new building projects.

Figure 10 shows the distribution of construction and demolition waste among mixed and separated fractions in 2000. It is seen that the major part of separated waste consists of concrete, asphalt, soil and stone.

Figure 10
Waste from building and construction in 2000, by mixed and separated fractions.

Source: ISAG reports 2000. Legend: clock-wise from top.

The increase in C&D waste amounts is especially attributable to the separated fractions of tile and concrete as well as the mixed fraction "various non-combustibleable" that increased from 1999 by 94 per cent, 39 per cent and 50 per cent respectively.

Around half the increase in these fractions is explained by a decrease in the mixed fraction "other C&D waste". Conclusively, waste separation has improved.

A large proportion of construction and demolition waste is reprocessed in mobile crushing plants moved around the country for various assignments.

The owner of the mobile crushing plant is responsible for reporting to the ISAG, but in some cases also his client does so. The Danish Environmental Protection Agency is aware of this possible source of double counting, and great efforts are made in co-operation with enterprises reporting to subject data to quality assurance in order to avoid double counting.

6.3 Waste from households

Waste from households covers primarily the waste types domestic waste, bulky waste, and garden waste, which again can be divided into waste fractions such as paper and cardboard, bottles and glass, and food waste/other organic waste. See also Table 15 where fractions are stated – mixed and separated - in so far as it has been possible to register them separately.

Amounts of, for example, paper and cardboard do not reflect the potential in household waste, but alone the amount separated for recycling. Other paper is covered by the fraction "various combustibleable".

Total waste generation in households in 2000 amounted to 3,084,000 tonnes, which is 121,000 tonnes or 4 per cent more than in 1999. Domestic waste amounts remained practically unchanged from 1999 – there has been a minor increase of 11,000 tonnes. The increase in total amounts of household waste is therefore especially attributable to bulky waste and garden waste amounts that increased by 9 per cent and 12 per cent respectively.

However, domestic waste still accounts for the major proportion of household waste: around 54 per cent.

Table 15
Waste generation in households. By fraction and stated in tonnes

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It is seen from the table that the increase in amounts of household waste is especially attributable to increases in the amounts of hazardous waste and garden waste. There were also minor increases in amounts of separated paper and cardboard and in the mixed fractions "various combustible" and "various non- combustible", whereas the amounts of separated fractions such as food waste/other organic waste and bottles and glass decreased by 11 per cent and 6 per cent respectively.

6.3.1 Household waste per capita and per household

Table 16 states the generation of household waste per capita and per household. The table covers both selected waste types and separated waste fractions.

Householders’ total waste generation stated per capita in 2000 amounted to 578 kg, which is 20 kg more than in 1999. Stated per household householders’ waste generation amounted to 1,294 kg in 2000, which is 44 kg more than in 1999.

Table 16
Householders' waste generation in 1998, 1999 and 2000 per capita and per household

Source: ISAG reports. Population figures and number of households from Statistics Denmark have been used. Remark that Tables 15 and 16 cannot be compared directly, as Table 15 concerns waste generation stated by fractions, whereas Table 16 also includes waste type.

Of this, domestic waste per capita and per household in 2000 amounted to 314 kg and 703 kg respectively, which is almost identical to amounts in 1999.

The table also shows that amounts of separately collected fractions per capita and per household were almost identical in 1999 and 2000.

6.3.2 Domestic waste

Domestic waste from households covers waste that results from normal consumption in private households, i.e. paper, bottles and glass, organic food waste, and residual waste, collected at the household at regular intervals, normally weekly or every second week.

As mentioned above, domestic waste in 2000 amounted to 1,676,000 tonnes, which is 11,000 tonnes more than in 1999. Since 1994 amounts of domestic waste have varied from one year to the next without showing any clear trend – in the entire period the amounts have remained more or less stable, cf. Table 1.

In 2000, 14 per cent of domestic waste was recycled. 81 per cent was incinerated, and 5 per cent was landfilled.

As Figure 11 shows the distribution of domestic waste on the different treatment options has remained more or less stable in the period 1994 to 2000. Over the entire period the trend has been since 1996 to incinerate around 80 per cent of domestic waste and to recycle and landfill around 15 per cent and 5 per cent respectively.

This means that too much domestic waste goes to incineration and landfill compared to the targets in Waste 21.

It should be noted that organic domestic waste must be assigned to incineration. However, for islands that do not have land connection to the mainland there is an exemption from this duty of assignment.

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Figure 11
Treatment of domestic waste from households 1994-2000 and target year 2004

To meet the target for recycling in year 2004 of 30 per cent a number of initiatives will be launched in the coming years. For example, separation and collection for recycling of glass, paper, and cardboard and plastic packaging will be extended.

Furthermore, initiatives will be launched with a view to recycling a larger proportion of organic domestic waste. Today, only around ½ per cent is recovered in biogas plants, cf. Table 8. The target is a recycling rate of 7 per cent of organic domestic waste in year 2004.

6.3.3 Bulky waste

In 2000 Danish households generated 730,000 tonnes of bulky waste. This is 58,000 tonnes more than in 1999, corresponding to an increase of 9 per cent.

In the period 1994 – 2000 bulky waste amounts have increased by 21 per cent overall, with a minor decrease in amounts in 1997 and 1998, cf. Table 1. This is due to a real increase in bulky waste amounts, but for a major part also to the introduction of collection schemes and bring schemes for bulky waste.

Figure 12 shows that the distribution among treatment options in the period 1994 – 1998 has remained relatively stable. In 1999 and 2000 the rate of bulky waste incinerated increased to 48 per cent, whereas the rate for landfilling decreased to 36 per cent. This means that the rate for recycling only reached 16 per cent i 2000.

Thereby, the target of a rate of landfilling of a maximum of 37.5 per cent has been met. By contrast, still too much bulky waste is led to incineration and too little is recycled.

To comply with treatment targets in year 2004, many efforts are called for in relation to separate collection of more bulky waste fractions. A number of initiatives for, for example, cardboard, electrical and electronic products, impregnated wood, and PVC-containing waste have already been launched or are in the planning phase.

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Figure 12
Treatment of bulky waste from households 1994-2000 and target year 2004

6.3.4 Garden waste

Garden waste collected from households in 2000 amounted to 519,000 tonnes, which is 55,000 tonnes more than in 1999. Garden waste amounts have been on a steady increase throughout the 1990s. Since 1994 the increase in garden waste amounts has been 81 per cent.

This increase not only reflects a real increase in garden waste amounts. It is rather the result of increasing opportunities for householders to dispose of garden waste at municipal treatment plants at the expense of home-composting of waste. This leads to larger amounts of waste treated in the municipal system.

Garden waste treatment is presented in Figure 13. 97 per cent of garden waste was recycled in 2000, whereas 1 per cent was incinerated and 1 per cent led to landfill.

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Figure 13
Treatment of garden waste from households 1994-2000 and target year 2004

Thereby, targets for recycling and incineration of garden waste from households have been met with a good margin. It is estimated to be impossible to increase recycling further. Therefore, future efforts with respect to garden waste will concentrate on maintaining the present high recycling rate and to reduce amounts treated in the municipal waste management system.

6.4 Waste from manufacturing industries

Waste generation in industry in 2000 amounted to 2,948,000 tonnes, which is 295,000 tonnes or 11 per cent more than in 1999. A distribution of waste from industry on mixed and separated fractions is shown in Figure 14. It is seen that ferrous metals by far is the largest single fraction followed by the mixed fraction various combustible, separated paper and cardboard, various non- combustible and beet soil.

The relative distribution of total industrial waste on the different fractions remained almost unchanged in 2000 compared to 1999. However, as mentioned above there has been an increase in amounts of industrial waste of around 295,000 tonnes. This increase is particularly attributable to the separated fractions paper and cardboard, food waste/other organic, ferrous metals and the mixed fraction various non- combustible that increased by 53 per cent, 25 per cent, 21 per cent and 15 per cent respectively. However, it is important to note that around 100,000 tonnes of the increase is explained by a correction in the registration of the amounts of paper and cardboard collected for recycling, cf. Table 6.

By contrast there has been a decrease in the fractions various combustible, hazardous waste and beet soil: 14 per cent, 13 per cent and 2 per cent respectively. This indicates that in 2000 there was a better separation of recyclable waste such as paper and cardboard and food waste/other organic from the mixed fraction various combustible.

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Figure 14
Waste from manufacturing industries etc. 2000, by mixed and separated fractions

The treatment of waste from industry is shown in Figure 15. 64 per cent of the waste was recycled in 2000. This is 6 percentage points more than in 1999. In absolute figures it corresponds to an increase of 346,000 tonnes. A large part of this increase is attributable to larger amounts of separated waste for recycling, such as paper and cardboard and ferrous metals.

The rate of industrial waste incinerated in 2000 reached 15 per cent, which is 4 percentage points less than in 1999. The rate led to landfill remained almost unchanged from 1999: 21 per cent.

This means that the target of landfilling a maximum of 15 per cent of industrial waste has not been met. Still far too much of waste from industry is landfilled. Even if the rates of recycling and landfilling have taken a positive direction since 1994, there is still some way to go before the targets for these two treatment options have been met.

Amounts and composition of waste from manufacturing industries depend on the sector generating the waste, as well as size and number of enterprises. Possibilities of preventing or recycling waste will therefore differ from one waste fraction and sector to another.

The Danish Environmental Protection Agency has through the latest amendment to the Statutory Order on Waste implemented a number of changes to the ISAG system so that from year 2001 it will be possible to state waste from industry on eleven different sectors. In future, a number of enterprises¹⁵ must furthermore in addition keep a register in a specific format with various information on their waste generation. This will enhance the possibility of conducting sector-specific analyses and initiatives in industry.

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Figure 15
Treatment of waste from manufacturing industries 1994-2000 and target year 2004

In order to meet targets in Waste 21, the Danish Environmental Protection Agency has selected a number of waste types from industry to come into focus. One such waste type is shredder waste. New treatment technologies shall contribute to diverting shredder waste from landfilling to recycling. Another waste type in focus is hazardous waste, for which collection schemes shall be established with a view to separation and recycling.

6.5 Waste from institutions, trade and offices

Waste from the service sector¹⁶ in 2000 amounted to 1,119,000 tonnes, which is 164,000 tonnes or 17 per cent more than in 1999.

Waste from the service sector divided into mixed and separated fractions is shown in Figure 16. The relative distribution is almost the same in 2000 as in 1999. However, the rate of the mixed fraction other¹⁷ increased by 6 percentage points to constitute today 14 per cent of the waste. This has taken place at the expense of the fractions various burnable, various non- combustible and separated paper and cardboard.

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Figure 16
Waste from institutions/trade and offices 2000, by mixed and separated fractions.

Of the 1,119,000 tonnes of waste generated in the service sector in 2000, 40 per cent was recycled, 46 per cent was incinerated, whereas 14 per cent was led to landfill, cf. Figure 17. The rate incinerated in 2000 is almost unchanged from 1999. In return, a diversion has taken place from landfilling to recycling, so that the rate for recycling increased by 3 percentage points.

Compared to targets for treatment in Waste 21 in year 2004 still too little waste was recycled and too much landfilled in 2000 from the service sector. If targets are to be met, separation and collection of waste must be improved so that a larger proportion of recyclable materials can be recycled and environmental contaminants separated and treated separately.

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Figur 17
Treatment of waste from institutions/trade and offices 1994-2000 and target year 2004

6.6 Residues from coal-fired power plants

The generation of residues at coal-fired power plants varies from one year to the next due to variations in Danish imports/exports of power to and from Sweden and Norway. Imports/exports of power to and from Sweden and Norway depend largely on precipitation in these countries – if there is much precipitation much power is generated from hydropower in Sweden and Norway, and Danish exports will be correspondingly lower.

For example, in 1996 exports of power were particularly high, which is reflected in amounts of residues in this year, cf. Figure 18. In 2000, there was much precipitation in Sweden which resulted in so much cheap power generated on the basis of hydropower that power plants in both Denmark and Norway had to cease operations temporarily.

Amounts of residues have decreased steadily since 1996. This decrease is explained partly by less power exports in the years since 1996, and partly by the Government’s Energy Action Plan, "Energy 21", according to which natural gas and renewable energy sources, including bio-fuels, shall substitute coal in the long-term perspective. It is reflected in energy statistics¹⁸ that a decreasing part of electricity generation is based on coal. Also in future, Energy 21 will result in a decrease in residues from coal-based energy generation, whereas there will be an increase in fly ash and bottom ash from bio-fuels.

Figure 18 shows that amounts of residues from coal-fired power plants in 2000 were at around 1,176,000 tonnes. 100 per cent was recycled. Actually, in 2000 residues were used to an extent that amounts landfilled in earlier years were excavated.

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Figure 18
Treatment of residues from coal-fired power plants 1994-2000 and target year 2004

Table 17 states recovery of residues in 2000 in more detail. More than 80 per cent of residues is used as raw materials in industrial manufacture of, for example, cement, concrete and plaster board, whereas the remaining part is primarily used as backfilling either under the terms of Statutory Order no. 655 of 27 June 2001 from the Ministry of Environment and Energy, or as backfilling with special approval under the Danish Environmental Protection Act.

Table 17
Recovery of residues from coal-fired power plants 2000. '000 tonnes.

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6.7 Sludge from municipal wastewater treatment plants

Sludge from municipal wastewater treatment plants in 2000 stated in wet weight amounted to 1,476,000 tonnes¹⁹, which is 97,000 tonnes more than in 1999, cf. Figure 19. The statement only includes sludge, excluding sand and screenings.

Sludge statistics²⁰ for 1999 from the Danish Environmental Protection Agency show that total sludge amounts in 1999 were at 155,621 tonnes stated in dry weight. This is around 2,000 tonnes more than the previous year.

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Figure 19
Treatment of sludge from wastewater treatment plants 1994-2000 and target year 2004

The increase in sludge amounts stated in wet weight is primarily due to new treatment technologies for sludge and not to a general increase in sludge amounts.

In the treatment in sludge mineralisation plants (long-term storage) sludge is registered with around 0.5 – 1 per cent dry matter, whereas alternatives typically contain 20 per cent.

Based on amounts in wet weight the treatment of sludge is distributed by around 77 per cent for recycling, 17 per cent for incineration and 6 per cent for landfilling. In amounts for recycling are included 510,155 tonnes of sludge in wet weight treated in long-term storage with the objective of further mineralisation. Amounts are included in recycling as it is expected that this sludge will be recycled in some years.

Sewage sludge is mainly recovered as fertiliser on farmland. In future, more stringent requirements for the contents of certain organic and chemical substances will be made in relation to application to farmland. In the short-term perspective, the rate of recycling is therefore expected to decrease. However, in future, the quality of sludge is expected to improve due to the general policy of phasing-out of xenobiotic substances.

It seems furthermore that alternative methods for the recovery of sludge are being developed to a still larger extent. After sludge incineration, the inorganic residue is recovered in the production of, for example, sand blasting agents or cement. Sludge recovered in such alternative methods in 2000 amounted to around 67,000 tonnes²¹. In Figure 19 these 67,000 tonnes have been included in incineration, as these treatment methods are considered as recovery and not recycling.

7. Incineration plants and landfills

7.1 Incineration plants

In 1999, total waste incineration capacity was around 2,726,000 tonnes, distributed on 31 plants, cf. Table 18. This is an increase in capacity of 253,000 tonnes compared to the 1996 capacity.

In the beginning of the 1990s, an extensive conversion of waste incineration plants from heating generation to combined power and heating generation took place. In this connection, capacity adjustments were effected in relation to expected waste amounts for incineration in future.

As a result of the ban on landfilling of waste suitable for incineration that took effect on 1^st January 1997, there is now increasing pressure on incineration capacity. Amounts of non-recyclable waste suitable for incineration will be surveyed regularly in order to ensure necessary incineration capacity.

Table 18
Number of incineration plants and available incineration capacity in 1989, 1993, 1994/95, 1996 and 1999

Sources: Rambøll & Hannemann 1990: Analysis of data for energy plants based on waste, for the Danish Environmental Protection Agency and the Danish Energy Agency. The Danish Environmental Protection Agency and the Danish Energy Agency 1994: Waste resources for waste incineration 1993 and 2000. The Danish Environmental Protection Agency and the Danish Energy Agency 1997: Waste amounts for incineration year 2000. The Danish Environmental Protection Agency and the Danish Energy Agency 2001: Waste incineration in 2004 and 2008. Amounts and capacities. Figures for 1989 and 1995 are calculated on the basis of nominal capacity at 7,000 hours/year. Figures for 1996 and 1999 are based on actual hours of operation of plants. District heating capacity (DH) may be subject to restrictions under the Act on heating supply. CPH = combined power and heating. In figures for 1999 the nominal capacity includes plants erected in 1999. This gives a larger nominal capacity as furnaces have not been fully implemented in 1999.

7.2 Landfills

According to a questionnaire study conducted by the Danish Environmental Protection Agency in February/March 2001 there are today 134 landfill facilities in Denmark with an environmental approval, cf. Table 19. In addition, there is a small number of landfill facilities for harbour sludge.

Of these, 100 facilities are owned by public authorities, whereas 34 are under private ownership. The 100 public facilities cover 51 landfills, 25 inert waste landfills and 24 mono-landfills.

The privately owned facilities cover 3 landfills, 10 inert waste landfills and 21 mono-landfills.

According to the study the legal protection period has expired for just below half of the 134 landfill facilities.

A landfill is defined as a site receiving waste that, immediately or over time, presents a risk of pollution of groundwater, surface water and/or air. A landfill for inert waste is a site receiving waste that does not, or only to a very limited extent presents a risk of pollution of groundwater, surface water and/or air. A mono-landfill is a site receiving only one or a limited range of waste types with known composition.

As a consequence of the above-mentioned ban on landfilling of waste suitable for incineration, in combination with an increased and further differentiated waste tax, a large drop in landfill capacity needs is expected.

However, this may be counterbalanced by more stringent requirements for dredging of harbour sludge and recycling of residues.

Table 19
Number of landfills, inert waste landfills and separately located mono-landfills and available landfill capacity in 1992 and 1994

Sources: Danish Environmental Protection Agency. Working report no. 54, Landfill Capacity 1992, Danish Environmental Protection Agency 1997: Working report no. 33, Landfill sites in Denmark, and internal calculations. Questionnaire study carried out by the Danish Environmental Protection Agency in February/March 2001.

8. Projection of waste generation

8.1 Model suitability for describing historical developments

Section 8.2 presents a baseline projection of waste generation up to year 2020. The so-called Risø²² model has been used for the projection.

The projection is based on the Budget Statement projection 2001, the latest projection from March 2001 from the Danish Energy Agency and a calibration of the model for ISAG data for 2000.

Before making the projection, the suitability of the model for describing historical developments in waste generation was evaluated. This was done by calibrating the model for the latest year’s waste statistics, i.e. year 2000, and calculating developments in waste generation from 1994 to 2000 with the model.

Actual waste generation in the period 1995 - 2000 increased by around 14 per cent²³, but the model calculates total waste generation to be unchanged. A significant part of the deviation is due to the fact that the model calculates a larger decrease in the generation of residues from coal-fired power plants than what was actually the case.

As to generation stated endogenously²⁴ in the model, economic developments may explain around half of the increase in total generation from 1995 to 2000. Around 250,000 tonnes of the deviation of 977,000 tonnes in 1995 may be explained by a larger collection of garden waste which is described exogenously²⁵ in the model.

In addition, the increase in recyclable fractions is considerably larger than the decrease in the generation of "various non- combustible". A significant part of this increase is due to increased recycling of construction and demolition waste. If this is adjusted, there is a deviation in 1995 of around 400,000 tonnes between the model and actual generation registered. This deviation is due to significantly higher generation in 2000, particularly in the fractions ferrous metals, wood, soil and stone and sludge.

8.2 Baseline projection of waste generation 1994 – 2020

The baseline projection of waste generation estimates an increase in total waste generation from 2000 to 2020 of 27 per cent, corresponding to an increase from 13 million tonnes in 2000 to 16.5 million tonnes in 2020, cf. Figure 1²⁶.

The baseline projection describes expected developments in waste generation on the basis of estimated economic activity. It is assumed that no new waste political initiatives are launched.

In comparison, an increase in production and consumption of 43 per cent and 53 per cent respectively is expected. Thus, the model projects waste generation to increase less than economic activity. Significant reasons for this are the decreasing use of coal at power plants and expected low growth in building and construction activities.

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Figure 1
Developments in waste generation, historical data 1994-2000, projections 2001-2020

As Figure 1 shows, the baseline projection estimates a steeper increase in amounts of "combustible" waste and "non- combustible" waste than in recyclable fractions such as paper and cardboard, glass and plastic.

Amounts of ferrous metals and automobile tyres are expected to increase relatively much due to the expected increase in industrial production and the expected increase in private consumption of transport.

The modest increase in amounts of slag is due to an expectation of an almost constant use of coal in the period.

Amounts of beet soil are expected to decrease due to new technologies causing less soil to stick to the beets during harvesting. However, depending on weather conditions during harvesting there are normally large variations over the years.

Amounts of sludge from municipal wastewater treatment plants are expected to increase due to new treatment technologies causing water contents in the sludge to increase with unchanged amounts of dry matter. This is expected to lead to an increase of 500,000 tonnes in the next five years without a corresponding increase in dry matter amounts.

This means that the rate of waste for recycling decreases from around 64.8 per cent in 2000 to around 62.5 per cent in 2020. Correspondingly, the rate led to incineration passes from around 24 per cent in 2000 to around 26.4 per cent in 2020. The rate led to landfill will remain relatively constant around 11 per cent, cf. Figure 2.

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Figure 2
Developments in distribution on treatment options. Baseline scenario

8.3 Waste 21 projection 2000 – 2020

In the Danish Government’s Waste Management Plan Waste 21 a number of targets for treatment of waste up to 2004 have been set. Many of the initiatives in Waste 21 focus on increased separation of specific waste fractions with a view to diverting waste from incineration to recycling. But an equally important target of Waste 21 is to stabilise total waste generation.

Based on the baseline projection, a Waste 21 scenario has been drawn up, cf. Figure 3.

In the Waste 21 scenario the initiatives contained in Waste 21 for increased separation and recycling of paper and cardboard, glass, plastic and organic waste have been included for the years 2000 to 2004. No further assumptions for increased separation for the period 2004 – 2020 have been made. Therefore, based on the Waste 21 adjustments, this period is only based on the projection suitability of the model.

Initiatives relating to developments in total waste generation have not been included in the Waste 21 scenario, as a draft strategy for waste prevention is only expected to be available in early 2002.

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Figure 3
Developments in waste generation, historical data 1994-2000, projections 2001-2020. Waste 21.

A comparison with the baseline projection of Figure 1 primarily shows a reduction in the generation of the mixed fraction "combustible" waste and an increase in the generation of the recyclable fractions paper and cardboard, glass and plastic, cf. Figures 4 and 5.

Figure 4
Developments in burnable waste genration. Baseline vs Waste 21 scenario
  

Figure 5
Developments in selected separated fractions. Baseline vs Waste 21 scenario

If no further measures are taken against developments in waste generation after 2004²⁷ the Waste 21 adjustments for 2000 – 2004 mean that the rate of waste in 2020 for incineration will be reduced from 26.4 per cent to 24.6 per cent, whereas the rate of waste for recycling will increase from 62.5 per cent to 64.4 per cent.

This means that Waste 21 will ensure that the rate of recyclable fractions will be the same in 2000 and 2020 causing the distribution on treatment options to be largely the same in 2000 and 2020, cf. Figure 6.

Without the initiatives in Waste 21, cf. the baseline projection there would be a decreasing rate of fractions for recycling.

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Figure 6
Developments in distribution on treatment options. Waste 21 scenario

Annex 1. Tables of waste generation

Table 1
Waste generation in Denmark in 1998, 1999 and 2000, and target for year 2004. Stated by source and treatment option. Stated in ‘000 tonnes and in per cent.

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Table 2
Waste generation in Denmark in 1998, 1999 and 2000 stated by waste type and treatment option. Stated in ‘000 tonnes and in per cent.

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Annex 2. Principles for distribution of waste received at recycling centres and transfer stations.

Recycling centres/transfer stations

The ISAG covers a commercial source "recycling centres/transfer stations". This means that waste, for example from households, delivered via transfer stations is not recorded as waste from "households".

The source "recycling centres/transfer stations" is therefore distributed on the original sources. This distribution is obviously based on estimates.

All domestic waste from "recycling centres/transfer stations" is converted into domestic waste from the source "households".

All bulky waste, apart from the fractions "paper and cardboard" and "bottles and glass", from "recycling centres/transfer stations" is converted into bulky waste from the source "households".

All bulky waste covering the fractions "paper and cardboard" and "bottles and glass" is converted into "domestic waste" and transferred from the source "recycling centres/transfer stations" to the source "households".

All garden waste from "recycling centres/transfer stations" is converted into garden waste from the source "households".

All industrial and commercial waste from "recycling centres/transfer stations", apart from the fractions "concrete", "tiles", "other construction and demolition waste", "asphalt", "wood", and "asbestos", is converted into industrial and commercial waste from the source "institutions, trade and offices".

All industrial and commercial waste from "recycling centres/transfer stations", covering the fractions "concrete", "tiles", "other construction and demolition waste", "asphalt", "wood", and "asbestos", is converted into industrial and commercial waste from the source "building and construction sector".

All hazardous waste from "recycling centres/transfer stations" is converted into hazardous waste from the source "households".

All waste of the type "treatment residues" and "not informed" from "recycling centres/transfer stations" is converted into a new source: "other".

Bulky waste

All waste of the type "bulky waste" from the sources "institutions, trade and offices", "manufacturing industries", and "building and construction sector" is converted into "industrial and commercial waste", although deriving from the same sources.

Ferrous metals

Reports to the ISAG on ferrous metals are made according to the Statutory Order on Waste by enterprises, including smelting works, that reprocess collected and separated ferrous metals by remelting. Scrap dealers that collect ferrous metals are not subject to mandatory reporting to the ISAG, but are requested to uphold a register in accordance with ISAG regulations.

The Danish Environmental Protection Agency receives information from scrap dealers directly from the Association of Danish Recycling Industries and other large scrap dealers. In waste statistics, such ferrous scrap has been attributed to the source "manufacturing industries".

Annex 3 Hazardous waste generation

Generation and treatment of hazardous waste in 1999 and 2000. Tonnes

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