Waste Statistics 2000
8. Projection of waste generation
| 8.1 | Model suitability for describing historical developments |
| 8.2 | Baseline projection of waste generation 1994 – 2020 |
| 8.3 | Waste 21 projection 2000 – 2020 |
8.1 Model suitability for describing historical developments
Section 8.2 presents a baseline projection of waste generation up to year 2020. The so-called Risø22 model has been used for the projection.
The projection is based on the Budget Statement projection 2001, the latest projection from March 2001 from the Danish Energy Agency and a calibration of the model for ISAG data for 2000.
Before making the projection, the suitability of the model for describing historical developments in waste generation was evaluated. This was done by calibrating the model for the latest year’s waste statistics, i.e. year 2000, and calculating developments in waste generation from 1994 to 2000 with the model.
Actual waste generation in the period 1995 - 2000 increased by around 14 per cent23, but the model calculates total waste generation to be unchanged. A significant part of the deviation is due to the fact that the model calculates a larger decrease in the generation of residues from coal-fired power plants than what was actually the case.
As to generation stated endogenously24 in the model, economic developments may explain around half of the increase in total generation from 1995 to 2000. Around 250,000 tonnes of the deviation of 977,000 tonnes in 1995 may be explained by a larger collection of garden waste which is described exogenously25 in the model.
In addition, the increase in recyclable fractions is considerably larger than the decrease in the generation of "various non- combustible". A significant part of this increase is due to increased recycling of construction and demolition waste. If this is adjusted, there is a deviation in 1995 of around 400,000 tonnes between the model and actual generation registered. This deviation is due to significantly higher generation in 2000, particularly in the fractions ferrous metals, wood, soil and stone and sludge.
8.2 Baseline projection of waste generation 1994 – 2020
The baseline projection of waste generation estimates an increase in total waste generation from 2000 to 2020 of 27 per cent, corresponding to an increase from 13 million tonnes in 2000 to 16.5 million tonnes in 2020, cf. Figure 126.
The baseline projection describes expected developments in waste generation on the basis of estimated economic activity. It is assumed that no new waste political initiatives are launched.
In comparison, an increase in production and consumption of 43 per cent and 53 per cent respectively is expected. Thus, the model projects waste generation to increase less than economic activity. Significant reasons for this are the decreasing use of coal at power plants and expected low growth in building and construction activities.
Figure 1
Developments in waste generation, historical data 1994-2000, projections
2001-2020
As Figure 1 shows, the baseline projection estimates a steeper increase in amounts of "combustible" waste and "non- combustible" waste than in recyclable fractions such as paper and cardboard, glass and plastic.
Amounts of ferrous metals and automobile tyres are expected to increase relatively much due to the expected increase in industrial production and the expected increase in private consumption of transport.
The modest increase in amounts of slag is due to an expectation of an almost constant use of coal in the period.
Amounts of beet soil are expected to decrease due to new technologies causing less soil to stick to the beets during harvesting. However, depending on weather conditions during harvesting there are normally large variations over the years.
Amounts of sludge from municipal wastewater treatment plants are expected to increase due to new treatment technologies causing water contents in the sludge to increase with unchanged amounts of dry matter. This is expected to lead to an increase of 500,000 tonnes in the next five years without a corresponding increase in dry matter amounts.
This means that the rate of waste for recycling decreases from around 64.8 per cent in 2000 to around 62.5 per cent in 2020. Correspondingly, the rate led to incineration passes from around 24 per cent in 2000 to around 26.4 per cent in 2020. The rate led to landfill will remain relatively constant around 11 per cent, cf. Figure 2.
Figure 2
Developments in distribution on treatment options. Baseline scenario
8.3 Waste 21 projection 2000 – 2020
In the Danish Government’s Waste Management Plan Waste 21 a number of targets for treatment of waste up to 2004 have been set. Many of the initiatives in Waste 21 focus on increased separation of specific waste fractions with a view to diverting waste from incineration to recycling. But an equally important target of Waste 21 is to stabilise total waste generation.
Based on the baseline projection, a Waste 21 scenario has been drawn up, cf. Figure 3.
In the Waste 21 scenario the initiatives contained in Waste 21 for increased separation and recycling of paper and cardboard, glass, plastic and organic waste have been included for the years 2000 to 2004. No further assumptions for increased separation for the period 2004 – 2020 have been made. Therefore, based on the Waste 21 adjustments, this period is only based on the projection suitability of the model.
Initiatives relating to developments in total waste generation have not been included in the Waste 21 scenario, as a draft strategy for waste prevention is only expected to be available in early 2002.
Figure 3
Developments in waste generation, historical data 1994-2000, projections
2001-2020. Waste 21.
A comparison with the baseline projection of Figure 1 primarily shows a reduction in the generation of the mixed fraction "combustible" waste and an increase in the generation of the recyclable fractions paper and cardboard, glass and plastic, cf. Figures 4 and 5.
Figure 4
Developments in burnable waste genration. Baseline vs Waste 21 scenario
Figure 5
Developments in selected separated fractions. Baseline vs Waste 21 scenario
If no further measures are taken against developments in waste generation after 200427 the Waste 21 adjustments for 2000 – 2004 mean that the rate of waste in 2020 for incineration will be reduced from 26.4 per cent to 24.6 per cent, whereas the rate of waste for recycling will increase from 62.5 per cent to 64.4 per cent.
This means that Waste 21 will ensure that the rate of recyclable fractions will be the same in 2000 and 2020 causing the distribution on treatment options to be largely the same in 2000 and 2020, cf. Figure 6.
Without the initiatives in Waste 21, cf. the baseline projection there would be a decreasing rate of fractions for recycling.
Figure 6
Developments in distribution on treatment options. Waste 21 scenario
| 22 | Risø is the Danish National Laboratory for research in
science and technology |
| 23 | Part of the increase is attributable to extension of the
statistical basis. |
| 24 | I.e. calculated within the assumptions of the model. |
| 25 | I.e. fixed beyond the model. |
| 26 | Note that e.g. amounts of paper and cardboard are not an
expression of total potential of this fraction, but merely state amounts of paper and
cardboard separated for recycling. The fraction "combustible" thus may also
contain paper and cardboard and other recyclable fractions. |
| 27 | However, further initiatives in the waste management area are expected for the period after 2004 with the successor of Waste 21 . |