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Environmental Project no. 839, 2003

Ranking of Industrial Products

Contents

Preface

Purpose and results

This report describes the results of a project the purpose of which is ranking of all industrial products sold in Denmark on the basis of loss of resources and energy consumption related to these products.

This ranking is to be considered an initial, systematic attempt to identify the commodity groups (groups of industrial products) that can be assumed to be considerably harmful to the environment, and thus should be prioritised in the future efforts to introduce cleaner technology in Denmark.

It is stressed that this ranking is based on two simple criteria (loss of resources and energy consumption) and does not consider other kinds of environmental impact (e.g. emissions from productive activities), related to industrial products.

Consequently the ranking itself is not an explanation of the industrial products resulting in the most serious environmental impact, but simply an explanation of the ranking according to the selected criteria.

The selected criteria are however considered covering a significant part of the total environmental impact by industrial products. Thus the results of this project will form an important basis for prioritizing of the environmental measures to be taken as concerns the product - measures to be taken in conformity with the action plan of cleaner technology 1993-1997/1/ of the Danish Ministry of the Environment.

The preparation of this ranking of industrial products has required collection and estimation of a considerable amount of data on the material composition of industrial products, energy consumption in connection with production of materials and recycling of materials etc. These data are expected to be reusable in other connections and were therefore organised in a database, which was installed in the computer system of the Danish Environmental Protection Agency as part of this project.

Financing and accomplishment

The project was financed by the Council for recycling and less polluting technology. The project was accomplished by COWI A/S within the period of May to December 1993.

Steering group

The accomplishment of the project was supervised by a steering group with the following members:

Søren Kristoffersen Danish EPA (chairman)

Mariane Hounum Danish EPA

Pia Jellinggård Danish EPA

Peter Grau Danish EPA

Helle Petersen Danish EPA

Kurt Søndergård COWI

Henrik Kærgård COWI

Kristian B. Lauritsen COWI (substitute for H. Kærgård)

Erik Hansen COWI5

Summary and conclusions

Objectives and principles

In this project all industrial products sold in Denmark have been ranked according to the loss of resources and energy consumption that are connected to these products.

Loss of resources is in this case defined as the amount of material that is not recycled. Loss of renewable materials that are recreated concurrently with their use (e.g. wood) is however not included in the loss of resources.

Energy consumption is in this case defined as:

• Energy consumption for producing and manufacturing the materials that make up the industrial product (including their energy content)
• plus the energy consumption during use
• minus the energy that can be regained by incinerating the loss of resources (including the loss of renewable materials).

The goal of this ranking was to identify the types of industrial products that over their entire life cycle (from extraction of raw materials to the final disposal) can be assumed in particular to have an impact on the environment and therefore should have priority in the further efforts for introducing cleaner technology in Denmark.

The parameters "loss of resources" and "energy consumption" are in this case used as indicator parameters of the total environmental impact that is connected to the industrial products through their life cycle. The choice of these indicator parameters is due to the fact that together they represent an essential part of the total environmental impact of industrial products, and at the same time it is relatively easy to estimate/calculate these parameters for all industrial products.

It is however stressed that these indicator parameters do not take into account the many other types of environmental impact (e.g. emissions from industrial manufacturers) that are connected with industrial products. The very ranking is therefore not a statement of the industrial products that have the greatest environmental impact, but only a statement of the rank according to the chosen indicator parameters.

This project has in principle focused only on actual industrial products, in other words finished goods. Raw materials, semi-manufactures and products made as handicraft are therefore in principle not included in the ranking. Since it is difficult to draw a line between finished goods and semi-manufactures, some semi-manufactures, among these packing materials, are included in this project.

1. All industrial products sold in Denmark are divided into commodity groups. This was done based on the Commodity Supply Statistics compiled by Statistics Denmark. Of a total of 10,376 item numbers in these supply statistics, 3,729 are considered to be raw materials, semi-manufactures or handicraft - and are therefore sorted out. The remaining 6,647 item numbers are divided into a total of 966 commodity groups (see section 1.2 and appendices 3 and 4).
2. The material composition is determined for all product groups (see section 1.4 and appendix 5). In other words, the materials that make up the products of a group are identified, and the amount (in %) of each material is estimated. The products are chosen to be described including the packing that they are delivered in and the spare parts and working means that are needed during their life span. For example a washing machine would include soap, softener and water. Here, there is distinguished between the materials specified in table 1.5.
3. For all materials, the average loss of resources (the amount that is not recycled) is estimated, and it is determined whether the material is renewable, and whether it is recreated at the same rate as its use. The energy needed to extract, produce and manufacture each material is also estimated along with the energy content (the amount of latent energy (see section 1.5 and appendix 6)).
4. For all commodity groups the energy consumption during use is estimated (total energy consumption in the life span of the products), and it is estimated whether the use and disposal of a product result in a loss of resources for the materials in the commodity group that is different from the average loss of resources (see section 1.5 and appendix 5).
5. For all commodity groups, figures for production and supply (production + imports - exports) are retrieved from Statistics Denmark. The information is retrieved as average figures for the years 1990 to 1992. In the cases in which this information is confidential, an estimate was made of the probable size of the production/supply (see section 1.3).
6. Finally a computer system was developed to carry out the calculations of loss of resources, energy consumption and the rank according to these parameters. The fundamentals of the calculations are shown in diagram 1.1, whereas the calculations of each commodity group are found in appendix 2
   

Results

The result of the ranking is shown in appendices 1a and 1b. Appendix 1a shows the rank as it appears, when the quantity data used in the calculation are an average of the production and supply. Appendix 1b shows the rank, when only the supply data are used in the calculation. It should be noted that there is no essential difference between the two ranks.

That the calculations i.a. are based on the average of production and supply figures, should be regarded as a pragmatic way of solving the problem that certain types of industrial products may have a high impact on the environment in Denmark in the production phase of their life cycle (this is the case for the products for which the export from Denmark is high as compared to the consumption), whereas other products will have an impact mainly in the consumption and disposal phases.

The results show that the industrial products of high ranking are characterized by one or more of the following properties:

• The product has an active energy consumption (e.g. a car that uses energy in the form of gasoline)
• The product has a large consumption of working means (e.g. a washing machine that uses soap and water)
• The product is sold in very large quantities and primarily consists of non-renewable materials (e.g. cement and asphalt)

Also products that primarily consist of renewable materials (e.g. newspapers and magazines that consist of approx. 97% paper and 3% printing ink) can be of high ranking. In this case the products are sold in such large quantities that even a small content of non-renewable materials will give considerable loss of resources.

A considerable number of products among the 50 highest ranked commodity groups are characterized by being connected to the civic sectors of energy, transportation, agriculture and construction.

For the energy sector this regards products such as coal, oil, natural gas, gasoline, kerosene and coke. In this case the products are sold in very large quantities. When these products are ranked high on the list, it is partly because they disappear completely when used, and partly because they have a considerable energy content, which cannot be utilised by the current combustion technology.

In the transportation sector there are products such as ships, automobiles, trucks and trains. These products are characterized by a very large energy consumption during their use, combined with a considerable loss of resources as lubricating oil and other working means, for example tyres on cars.

In the agricultural sector the high-ranked products are primarily fertilizer and feed, but also produce such as meat and cheese. These products are also sold in very large quantities. Although these products (except fertilizer) primarily consist of renewable materials, they do have a small portion of non-renewable packing materials (especially plastic), which is considered to be lost. Aside from this, all of these products represent considerable energy content.

The high-ranked construction products include cement, concrete, asphalt, gypsum, mineral wool, reinforcing iron etc. Again products that are sold in very large quantities and only to a certain degree recycled. For example it should be pointed out that although 70% of all concrete is recycled today, the remaining 30% still represents a very large quantity that inevitably takes up space in dump sites.

Among the 50 highest ranked commodity groups a number of well known household products, such as refrigerators, freezers, washing machines and televisions can also be found - all characterised by a large energy consumption during their use. Washing machines are in addition characterised by a large consumption of working means, such as soap, softener etc. Measured over the life span of a washing machine the soap consumption constitutes 86% of the total material weight excluding water. Also a number of consumer goods are high-ranked, for example newspapers, magazines and bottled beer, all of which are sold in very large quantities. The same is the case for furniture made of chip boards or wood fibre boards, which are also high-ranked.

It should be noted that the ranking carried out here does not take the social utility value of the industrial products into consideration. A product that is ranked high on the list is not necessarily a poor or environmentally harmful product. A number of these products (e.g. refrigerators and televisions) are on the contrary products in connection with which Danish companies have initiated efforts for introducing cleaner technology, thereby developing environmentally safer products. When a product is high-ranked, it should be taken as documentation of a very large loss of resources and/or energy consumption connected with that product, and therefore it can be in the interest of the public to initiate considerations as to the improvements/changes/consumption reductions etc. that might be introduced for that product. A number of these products are sold in such large quantities that even a relatively small improvement would have great influence compared to many of the lower ranked products.

It is emphasized that during the final evaluation of the results brought forward in this project, it is of course necessary to observe that the ranking does not take all the environmental impacts connected to the industrial products into consideration. In other words, when finding the final priority of the products it would be relevant to include knowledge about emissions of chemical substances during manufacturing processes in Denmark, and at the same time take the industrial products that contain especially environmentally hazardous materials into consideration.

In this way industrial products that are only sold in very small quantities, and therefore are ranked very low on the list, can demand attention due to a content of environmentally hazardous materials or pollution during manufacturing.

Uncertainties

Aside from this, it is emphasized that the ranking naturally contains elements of uncertainty, since all the data that go into the calculations can only be determined within a certain degree. In some cases errors were made at estimating the material composition, material data etc. As is noted in section 2.2 it is estimated that the loss of resources calculations should be considered to have a degree of uncertainty that typically ranges from -42% to +61%, whereas the calculations of energy consumption range from -50% to +76%.

These uncertainties indicate that it makes no sense to claim that the commodity group ranked as number 30 has a greater environmental impact than the commodity group ranked as number 35, or to single out number 250 instead of number 300. It does however make sense to emphasize commodity groups ranked 1 - 50 instead of numbers 100 - 200 and so on. In other words it is the greater perspectives that should be noticed.

Data base

Apart from the ranking, which was the primary goal of this project, the project also fulfilled the goal of providing essential knowledge of industrial products and the materials used in these. This knowledge is as described in section 3.2 expected to be of use in connection with material flow analyses and other environmental studies concerning industrial products. All the data that were retrieved through this project along with the documentation of this data were organised in a data base installed in the computer system of the Danish Environmental Protection Agency (Miljøstyrelsen). Although this data base is today only equipped to carry out the calculations that were necessary in connection with this project, the data base could relatively easily be extended to carry out a number of other calculations. This project can therefore be said to have laid the cornerstone for a data base on industrial products and materials, which will hopefully be of great value in the future environmental work in Denmark.

It is emphasized that the extent and time limit of this project naturally resulted in a data base that is far from perfect and in many ways is improvable. The data found in this data base should therefore not be considered the ultimate truth, but rather a basis that can be useful for making overall estimates, and which can be improved, as more precise data are made available.

1 Method description

1.1 Principles and philosophy

1.1.1 Background

Pilot project

This project is based on the considerations of the pilot project called "Environmental impact of industrial products" ("Industriprodukters Miljøbelastning") (cf. /2/). The objective of this pilot project was to develop a methodology to estimate the environmental impact by industrial products to enable identification of the type of products causing the most serious environmental impact through their entire life cycle.

The pilot project and thus also this project are an attempt to concretize the thoughts expressed in the action plan for cleaner technology of the Ministry of the Environment /1/. Whereas up till now the environmental measures taken have focused primarily on the pollution from manufacture activities, the future measures will be more focused on industrial products and the environmental impact related to the entire life cycle of industrial products, i.e. from extraction of raw materials to disposal of discarded products.

The efforts taken to identify a method for ranking industrial products based on their environmental impact are based on the fact that the funds available in the Danish society are not unlimited. It is consequently both necessary and appropriate to focus the measures to be taken on the types of industrial products that are especially harmful to the environment.

The pilot project included an assessment of relevant environmental relations of an industrial product throughout its life cycle (cf. fig. 1.1) and the possibilities of obtaining data on these environmental relations and the related measures. A proposal for various methods of ranking industrial products was made.

It was estimated (cf. /2/) that the possible ranking methods can be divided in three levels that are clearly different as to the method accuracy/information value and the workload required by applying the method. These levels are as follows:

Level 1: Quantities only. A ranking of industrial products can be carried out based exclusively on the quantities (in weight) of the products consumed or produced in Denmark. This level can only be considered an indication of the actual environmental problems. The criterion will be inaccurate and unreasonable, as e.g. foodstuffs, paper and wood-based products will rank highly, even though these products exclusively or mostly consist of renewable materials. Furthermore, it is not possible to consider the energy consumption of the industrial products during their use phase, even though this consumption has a crucial importance to the total energy consumption of products using energy in their use phase. The required work to be performed applying this method was estimated at 2.5 to 3.5 man months excluding computer activities.

Level 2: Loss of resources and energy consumption. A better ranking is achieved by estimating the loss of resources and the energy consumption of industrial products. The loss of resources is a goal for consumption of the natural resources, but also indirectly an expression of an environmental impact (diffuse pollution etc.) The energy consumption will be an indicator of the greenhouse effect and the acidification, as these environmental impacts are mainly emissions to the air at energy transformation (e.g. coal to electricity). Other environmental problems will however not be included in the ranking. The required work to be performed by applying the method was estimated at 40 to 61 man months excluding computer activities.

Level 3: All environmental problems. At this level efforts are made to achieve detailed knowledge of the life cycle of all materials contained in industrial products. It should thus be possible to estimate loss of resources and energy consumption, as well as other environmental impacts, such as greenhouse effect, ozone depletion, acidification, eutrophication, dispersion of heavy metals and persistent organic matters and other local impacts (dust, noise, carcinogenic substances etc.) The ranking is possible by means of a scoring system or various ways of quantification. The workload was assessed considerable (100 man months as a minimum) and of a level only justifiable, if for other reasons there is a need for developing actual environmental profiles for specific materials.

The project described in this report has applied the above ranking method designated "level 2". This level is considered the optimal level based on a balancing of accuracy/information value versus workload of a method to include all industrial products (finished goods) sold in Denmark.

1.1.2 Philosophy

Definition of an industrial product

An industrial product is here defined as "an article that has been through a working-up process characterised as a mass production, and the further use of which does not involve additional industrial joining or processing".

Thus, articles like crude oil, iron bars, potatoes, electronic components and gravel are not considered industrial products, whereas petrol, machines, ready-made casseroles, computers and concrete elements are.

Defined in this way industrial products correspond to finished goods, whereas raw materials and semi-manufactures are not considered industrial products. The reasonability of this definition is based on the view that measures to reduce the environmental impact of industrial products must be based on the finished goods - not on the raw materials and semi-manufactures that are merely production stages of the finished goods. It must be admitted however that the definition is not unambiguous, as many articles can be used as semi-manufactures as well as finished goods.

It should be noted that the definition also excludes finished goods made as handicraft. This is considered acceptable, as the quantities produced of those articles are very modest compared to industrial products. Therefore the environmental impact of the handicraft is considered marginal compared to that of industrial products.

Problem elaboration

Also it should be noted that in this project report the designation industrial product means the product including packaging, spare parts and working means, if any, used during the entire life cycle of the product.

The grounds for this choice are that packaging, working means and spare parts are actually an integrated part of the industrial product and consequently must be included to enable a just comparison of various industrial products.

In practice the term industrial product covers a very large quantity of different articles. The commodity statistics of Statistics Denmark based on the commodity tariff of the Central Customs and Tax Administration /3/ include approx. 10,000 tariff numbers. As most of these tariff numbers include many different types of goods, the categorization of the statistics in itself is a significant simplification of reality.

Furthermore, there is the large number of environmental relations (cf. fig. 1.1) occurring in the life cycle of an industrial product and the complexity of such life cycles. Although it is theoretically possible to analyse the life cycles and all the environmental relations of all industrial products, this would practically be an overwhelming task.

These conditions mean that any method to estimate the environmental impact of all industrial products during their life cycles must necessarily simplify reality and focus on indicator parameters in preference to covering the total environmental impact. This is considered acceptable, as the purpose of the ranking of industrial products is to identify the types of industrial products for which there is a need for further measures to be taken, including additional investigations. This ranking is not to be considered a final evaluation.

Philosophy

The principal philosophy behind the method applied in this project is as follows:

1. All industrial products are composed of a relatively modest amount of materials, and the environmental impact of industrial products is to a wide extent determined by these materials.
2. The material composition of industrial products with the same function will be rather similar (as a main rule - it is of course possible to find exceptions from this rule).
3. It is consequently possible and appropriate to divide industrial products in commodity groups and estimate the material composition of each commodity group by estimating the composition of an "average product".
4. By combining the estimated material composition with information of the amount of industrial products sold in the society in question, it is possible to determine the amount of materials utilised within each commodity group.
5. By choosing and estimating certain characteristics (indicator parameters) of each material - that can be considered a measurement of the environmental impact by the use of this material - a quantitative estimate of the environmental impact of a specific commodity group is obtainable.

Materials

As it appears the term material is a key element of this project. This term is chosen as an expression of the "building stones" of which industrial products are composed. Actually materials are an intermediate stage between substances and products - an intermediate stage, which cannot be defined unambiguously, but is meaningful all the same.

There are two reasons why the term materials cannot be defined unambiguously. One is that materials normally cover material compounds that are not unambiguously defined chemically. As a commercial product, e.g. iron is not a chemically clean material, but a mixture of several substances, of which some have been added deliberately (alloy components), whereas other substances are natural impurities. Thus the material low alloy carbon steel covers a long series of material compounds with the common characteristics that the dominant component of the material is iron. Correspondingly, the material PVC - besides the PVC molecules - will normally also contain many different additives, such as dyes, flame retardants, UV stabilizers etc. to a varying extent.

The other reason is that in several cases it is difficult to distinguish between materials and industrial products. Parallel to the comments on semi-manufactures versus finished goods (see above) several materials can be considered industrial products themselves. This applies especially to chemical products like paint, solvents etc., but also to materials like glass and paper etc. In section 1.4 is stated the materials applied in this project and the considerations behind the choices made.

That the environmental impact of the industrial products to a wide extent is related to the materials contained in the products, is due to the following

• that materials can be considered a resource
• that energy is used for manufacture of materials apart from the fact that many materials contain energy (latent energy)
• that manufacture, use and recycling of materials in many ways result in release of chemical substances, which stresses the environment.

Naturally industrial products also cause environmental impacts that are related to the product rather than the applied materials. This is mainly about the energy consumption and the consumption of various chemical substances for the use of the industrial product, but also the environmental impact made in connection with the disposal/recycling of the product.

In this project is focused on loss of resources and energy consumption as indicator parameters of the total environmental impact. The choice of these indicator parameters was made, because they are considered representative of a significant part of the total environmental impact - combined with the assessment that it is relatively easy to estimate these parameters for all industrial products. It is emphasised that this choice is not an indication that the other environmental impacts are considered insignificant. It is just relatively difficult and requires therefore a considerable workload to estimate data of these aspects. For a more detailed discussion of this issue reference is made to /2/.

In the following the chosen indicator parameters are described briefly:

Loss of resources

Each material can be considered a resource in itself. This resource is used for manufacturing of industrial products. Throughout the life cycle of an industrial product the resource will be lost entirely or partly: The material end up in landfill sites, is spread diffusely in the surroundings or transformed. Consequently it is relevant to talk of a loss of resources. This loss of resources varies from one material to another and will to a certain extent also be dependent on the industrial product the material is part of.

In all phases of the life cycle of an industrial product waste will be produced and thus there will be a loss of resources (cf. fig. 1.1). Here is only the loss of resources occurring in the distribution, consumption and recycling/disposal phases estimated - thus the loss of resources through the raw material and production phases and the loss of resources related to infrastructure, manufacture of production equipment etc. are ignored (cf. /2/).

The reason for this choice is that the loss of resources in the distribution, consumption and recycling/disposal phases can relatively easily be calculated by estimating the part of the individual materials in an industrial product that will be collected for recycling (only recycling of materials is included - not recycling of products, cf. 1.5.1). On the other hand it would be difficult and a large workload to collect data of the loss of resources in the raw material and production phases. Unfortunately no knowledge is available today that would enable a precise assessment of the importance of this choice. In the pilot project /2/ it is assessed (a rough assessment) that the loss of resources throughout the distribution, consumption and recycling/disposal phases represents 30 - 70% of the total loss of resources.

These assessments are to be understood as follows: The lower limit of 30% corresponds to valuable materials (e.g. heavy metals) with a high degree of recycling, whereas the upper limit corresponds to materials that are non-recyclable (e.g. thermoset plastics). The choice of only including the loss of resources throughout the distribution, consumption and recycling/disposal phases (rather than including the loss of resources throughout the entire life cycle) means that industrial products with a low content of recyclable materials are ranked higher here (i.e. achieve a relatively larger loss of resources compared to other products) than would be the case, if the calculation of the loss of resources were based on the total loss of resources throughout the entire life cycle. Contrary to that, industrial products with a large part of recyclable materials would here be ranked lower than would be the case, if the calculation of the loss of resources were based on the total loss of resources throughout the entire life cycle. This systematic error in connection with the ranking method is however not of any decisive importance - taking the other uncertainties of the ranking into consideration (cf. 2.2).

At the assessment of the loss of resources it was distinguished whether the material was renewable or non-renewable. A renewable material is a material that is recreated naturally within the measurable future. A definition of the measurable future is disputable. In this report all vegetable and animal materials and water are considered renewable materials, whereas all mineral and oil based materials, i.e. materials based on geological resources are considered non-renewable.

The relevance of distinguishing between renewable and non-renewable materials is of course that a non-renewable material in principle can be used up, and thus is a resource that in the interest of the community is worth economizing on - more than a renewable material.

An objection to this is e.g. that iron ending up in landfill sites or is spread diffusely in nature and here is considered a loss of resources, in fact is not lost, but recoverable, which means that it should be appropriate to consider iron a renewable material. This argument is however only partially correct. It is correct that e.g. iron will never be lost completely. In principle it is possible to recover iron from seawater or other parts of nature, where it ends. The related energy consumption is however significantly larger than the energy consumption related to production of iron today.

The discussion is introduced here to stress the close connection between the state of the material of being renewable/non-renewable and the process of manufacture - and the related energy consumption - of the material. That a material like iron is assessed to be non-renewable is an expression of the fact that the present manufacture of pig iron is based on geological occurrences that are non-restorable within the measurable future.

As a parallel it can be noted that in this project plastic materials are assessed to be non-renewable materials, as the manufacture of plastic materials is today based on crude oil or natural gas that are geological resources that are non-restorable within the measurable future. In principle it would however not be difficult to manufacture plastic materials (and other petrochemical products) from vegetable raw materials. Such production does not take place today, as it would be too expensive and require too much energy. If - or rather when - the production of plastic materials is changed and becomes based on vegetable raw materials, the state of these materials would change to becoming renewable.

Unfortunately even renewable materials can be used up by heavy exploitation. This question is today primarily relevant to tropical tree species, fish and similar marine products. The principle point of view adopted in this project is that a renewable material that is not recreated concurrently with its use should be handled with the same care as non-renewable materials by the community.

In connection with non-renewable materials it would be relevant to continuously supervise the reserves of the resource, estimate when they will come to an end, how easily they are replaceable and thus the social value of the resource. These aspects of the resource problematic are not assessed in this project, partly because there is no clear definition of when a resource is exhausted (such a definition requires a decision of the acceptable energy consumption for extraction of the material from other sources), and partly because the necessary workload to estimate this aspect for all materials would be considerable. By the ranking, the same value has thus been assigned to all materials. In connection with the assessment of the results of the project, it must of course be evaluated whether the loss of a ton of sand and gravel should be considered just as important as the loss of a ton of copper.

Energy consumption

There is energy consumption throughout the entire life cycle of an industrial product, both at extraction and manufacture of materials, at processing of these materials, at the use of the industrial product (only certain products) and by the recycling/disposal of the industrial product.

In itself energy is one of the most important resources of the community. Other things being equal it is therefore in the interest of the community to minimise the consumption of energy for industrial products. Besides this, the energy consumption could be regarded as a measure of a series of other essential environmental problems, such as acidification and greenhouse effect that are in a very high degree related to the acid gasses and CO₂ released in connection with the use of fossil fuels.

Based on an assessment of how easy it is to procure/estimate data of the various parts of the energy consumption and the importance of the various parts of the total consumption (cf. /2), the energy consumption is in this project calculated as follows:

• The sum of the energy consumption for extraction, manufacture, processing and transportation of materials and the consumption in connection with the use of industrial products
• Minus the energy in the materials that is utilised, when the materials ending up as combustible waste are treated in incineration plants.

The elements of the total energy consumption throughout the life cycle of an industrial product that are not included, are the consumption through the distribution, recycling and the disposal phases and the energy consumption related to infrastructure and manufacture of production equipment. Furthermore, the energy consumption of the final assembly and finish of the finished goods will only be included to the extent the consumption is included in the estimates of the energy consumption for extraction, manufacture and processing of the materials that are available.

On the basis of the available data the exact importance of these choices is not possible to assess. In the pilot project /2/ it is roughly estimated that the energy consumption for extraction, manufacture and processing of materials together with the energy consumption during the use phase of industrial products are 70 - 90% of the total energy consumption. It should be noted that the calculations made during the EDIP project (Environmental Design of Industrial Products) have shown that for industrial products requiring energy by its use, this energy consumption will typically be decisive for the size of the total energy consumption /2/.

Furthermore it should be noted at the calculation of the energy consumption for extraction, manufacture and processing of combustible materials also includes energy content of the materials. The argument of this choice is that the combustible materials used for industrial products alternatively could have been used as an energy source. As they are used for manufacture of industrial products, energy is occupied and consumed.

1.1.3 Assessment principle

Ranking method

The ranking method used in this project divides the industrial products in commodity groups. Loss of resources and energy consumption are calculated for each commodity group. Then all commodity groups are ranked both to loss of resources and to energy consumption. The contents of these two ranking lists are finally collected in one list, in which the average ranking of each commodity group is calculated. By calculation of the final ranking, the two parameters are balanced evenly (no arguments justifying that one of the parameters is more important than the other, are known.

The loss of resources is in this context (cf. the previous section) defined as the quantity of materials in a commodity group that is not recycled, because the materials end up as waste that is disposed of or incinerated, or because the materials during their use are spread diffusely to the surroundings as a result of wear, corrosion or the like. Loss of renewable materials that are recreated concurrently with their use is however not included in the loss of resources.

The energy consumption is correspondingly - in this context - defined as the energy consumption used for extraction, manufacture and processing of the materials in the commodity group, plus the energy latent in these materials (if relevant), plus the energy consumption during the use phase (if relevant), minus the amount of energy recovered by incineration of the loss of resources.

The calculation of the loss of resources for each commodity group presupposes knowledge of the quantities of each commodity group sold annually in Denmark and knowledge of the composition of the materials in each commodity group. The calculation principle is summarized in box 1.1.

Correction factor

It should be noted that information of quantities in principle is based on information from Statistics Denmark (cf. 1.2). This information includes exclusively the net weight of industrial products, i.e. excluding any kind of packaging. As the composition of the commodity group is calculated as the composition during the life cycle of the products, i.e. including packaging, working means and spare parts, it has in connection with the calculations been necessary to define a special correction factor (K) for each commodity group. This correction factor has been identified as the relation between the weight of the industrial products including packaging/working means/spare parts and the weight of the industrial products alone.

Assessment of results

At the final assessment of the results of this ranking it is important to be aware that the ranking does not consider all environmental impacts related to industrial products. At the final ranking of industrial products it would be relevant to include the knowledge available of the release of chemical substances to the environment in connection with production activities in Denmark and also consider to what extent the different industrial products contain especially environmentally harmful substances. A consideration of such conditions might of course at some points result in a deviation of the final ranking compared to the ranking of this project.

Environmentally harmful substances

With a view to these ranking considerations it is found relevant within the scope of this project to assess and state whether de individual commodity groups contain selected, particularly environmentally harmful substances. The principles and the scope of this assessment are described in detail in section 1.6.

Box 1.1 Calculation principles

1.2 Division of industrial products in commodity groups

Supply statistics

The division of industrial products into commodity groups was made on the basis of "Statistics Denmark‘s" commodity supply statistics. These statistics are prepared by Statistics Denmark by combining the foreign trade statistics with commodity statistics for the Danish industry. With a few exceptions the tariff numbers applied in the supply statistics correspond to the tariff numbers applied in the foreign trade statistics and the goods statistics for industry. The exceptions in question concern the following commodities/industrial products:

• Monetary gold and confidential consignments: The supply statistics do not include the tariff numbers of these goods, which is considered acceptable in this connection
• Goods of concrete and wires/cables: For these industrial products the foreign trade statistics and the goods statistics for industry do not apply the same division. In the supply statistics special tariff numbers (not included in the other statistics) for these industrial products have been created.

The supply statistics are not published, but extracts are obtainable from Statistics Denmark. In connection with this project Statistics Denmark have supplied extracts of the statistics - data of production, exports, imports and supply for all tariff numbers in the statistics based on 1992-data. These extracts are the basis for the division of tariff numbers in commodity groups described in the following.

Division procedure and rules

The supply statistics contain in total 30,376 tariff numbers (version May 1993) divided in 97 commodity chapters. These tariff numbers were treated as follows:

Tariff numbers assessed to include only raw materials, semi-manufactures or handicrafts were as a principal rule sorted out (cf. 1.1). Examples of handicraft are jewellery and basketwork. 3,729 tariff numbers in total were sorted out in this basis.

However many semi-manufactures are also to rather a wide extent used as finished goods (e.g. materials for construction; in this project construction is not considered an industrial process). Additionally there is environmental focus on a series of semi-manufactures (e.g. tyres). Consequently it was decided to keep many semi-manufactures in the ranking system. The assessment criterion here was whether the semi-manufactured article in question was considered having a certain importance as an individual article. It was a calculated choice to rather sort out too little than too much.

The disadvantage of this method is of course that certain materials are included in more than one commodity group. For example copper wire might be included as pure copper wire, as copper in an electromotor and as copper in the machine in which the electromotor is installed. This disadvantage is considered acceptable here.

Tariff numbers that have not been sorted out are hereafter divided in commodity groups according to the following rules:

1. Maintain the systematics of the statistics
   Tariff numbers in different commodity chapters must not be collected in the same commodity groups.
2. Commodity groups must be homogeneous
   Other tariff numbers are collected in commodity groups, the aim being homogeneity as regards the function, the materials and the energy consumption of the industrial products during their use phase. Homogeneity as regards function means that industrial products in the same commodity group must have a certain coherence that makes it reasonable to consider them collectively and provide them with a common name. This coherence might be common characteristics (e.g. electro-motors) or common use (e.g. machines for textile processing). Homogeneity as regards materials means that industrial products in the same commodity group if possible should be composed of the same kind of materials. In many cases however this requirement cannot be fulfilled, as even under the same tariff number there are in some cases industrial products manufactured from quite different materials (example: Vacuum jugs and textiles). Homogeneity as regards energy consumption in the use phase means that the energy consumption of the goods must be of the same size, so that it makes sense to talk of an average energy consumption for the industrial products in the same commodity group. It makes thus no sense to mix small motor boats and cargo vessels or cars and lorries.
3. Minimise the problem of confidentiality
   Tariff numbers, of which data of quantity with Statistics Denmark are confidential, are to the widest possible extent grouped under consideration of rules no. 1 and 2 in such a way that there are at least 3 confidential tariff numbers in the same commodity group. Hereby the confidentiality as to the sum of the quantity information of the tariff numbers in question is lifted (cf. 1.3).
4. Threshold values
   In each commodity chapter a special commodity group named "miscellaneous" can be established. All tariff numbers, in which the production in Denmark as well as the supply in 1992 were less than 100 t/year in 1992, are grouped in this commodity group, unless these tariff numbers belong naturally together with other commodity groups in the commodity chapter. If - after the division - a few tariff numbers still remain, of which the production as well as the supply in Denmark in 1992 were less than 200 t and which do not belong naturally together with other commodity groups, so that a special commodity group for each of these tariff numbers should be established, then these numbers may also be placed in "miscellaneous".
5. Environmentally harmful substances
   Tariff numbers including industrial products with a substantial content of especially environmentally harmful substances (e.g. mercury cells) must irrespectively of rule no. 4 remain in special commodity groups. Thus, special commodity groups for e.g. thermometers, mercury cells, nickel-cadmium accumulators, pesticides and wood preservatives have been established.
6. Minimise the number of commodity groups
   It is important - under consideration of the other rules - to aim at minimising the number of commodity groups, as this - other things being equal - will reduce the required workload to carry out the project.

In total 966 commodity groups with 6,647 tariff numbers were established. Of these "miscellaneous-groups" include in total 66 commodity groups with 1,532 tariff numbers in total. Table 1.1 provides an overview of the division of tariff numbers in the individual commodity chapters.

The precise division appears from appendices 3 and 4. Appendix 3 is a systematic list of all tariff numbers in the supply statistics, in which the related commodity group is stated off each individual tariff number, or it is informed whether the number alternatively has been sorted out as raw material/semi-manufactured article etc. Appendix 4 is a systematic list of all commodity groups, in which the tariff numbers related to each individual commodity group are stated.

Assessment of division

It is stressed that the actual division of a series of groups appears to be a compromise between the stated rules, and especially between the rules 2, 3 and 6. Confidential tariff numbers are thus deliberately grouped in a few commodity groups, irrespective of the fact that they do not meet the requirements of homogeneity.

As the division appears today (cf. appendices 3 and 4), it is the assessment of the author that it is useful for this project, but not necessarily optimal in all details.

Threshold values

As to the rule of threshold values (rule no. 4) it should be noted that this rule was made on the basis of the awareness that many industrial products are sold in quantities so modest that it can be immediately assessed that the ranking of these products will be very low. On the basis of information from Statistics Denmark /3/ it is known that the average supply in 1992 of all tariff numbers in the supply statistics exceeds 5,300 t, whereas the supply of at least 24% of all the tariff numbers in 1992 did not exceed 100 t.

Many industrial products that are only sold in modest quantities are special products that are difficult to group together with other products sold in large quantities and consequently to a wide extent must be placed in their own commodity groups. Without a kind of threshold value it would be an unreasonably large share of the total workload invested in this project that would be used to clarify the material composition of commodity groups, the environmental impact of which is relatively modest.

Table 1.1 Overview of the division of commodity numbers in the individual commodity chapters *1)

Com-modity

chapter

No.

Title

Number of tariff numbers in total

Number of tariff numbers in commodity groups

Number of tariff numbers sorted out

Number of tariff numbers in misc. group

Number of commodity groups

1

Live animals

40

0

40

0

0

2

Meat and edible offal

264

195

69

0

6

3

Fish and crustacean

308

235

73

0

4

4

Milk and dairy products

154

101

53

3

11

5

Misc. products of animal origin

26

0

26

0

0

6

Live trees and other plants

61

0

61

0

0

7

Edible vegetables

119

25

94

0

2

8

Edible fruits and nuts

133

14

119

0

2

9

Coffee, tea and spices

54

9

45

5

3

10

Corn

57

28

29

0

1

11

Milling products; malt, starch etc.

76

34

42

2

3

12

Oilseed and oily fruit

101

4

97

0

1

13

Plant juices and extracts; shellac, natural resin etc.

17

0

17

0

0

14

Vegetable materials for basketwork etc.

11

0

11

0

0

15

Animal and vegetable oils and fats

137

24

113

13

4

16

Refined articles of meat, fish and crustacean

107

107

0

13

14

17

Sugar and sweets

47

21

26

1

9

18

Cocoa and articles prepared of cocoa

26

11

15

0

5

19

Articles prepared of corn, flour etc., cakes and biscuits

48

44

4

5

14

20

Articles of vegetables, fruit, nuts etc.

263

225

38

58

13

21

Misc. products from the foodstuff industry

44

40

4

6

17

22

Beverages, ethanole, vinegar

110

110

0

4

16

23

Residues and waste products from the foodstuff industry

68

68

0

6

10

24

Tobacco and manufactured tobacco substitutes

30

8

22

1

4

25

Salt, sulphur, soil and stone types, typsum, lime, cement etc.

98

38

60

2

12

26

Ores, slag and ashes

51

0

51

0

0

27

Mineral fuel, mineral oils etc.

102

53

49

7

14

28

Inorganic chemicals etc.

258

36

222

7

16

Table 1.1 Overview of the division of commodity numbers in the individual commodity chapters (continued) *1)

Com-modity

chapter

No.

Title

Number of tariff numbers in total

Number of tariff numbers in commodity groups

Number of tariff numbers sorted out

Number of tariff numbers in misc. group

Number of commodity groups

29

Organic chemicals

458

55

403

3

6

30

Pharmaceutical products

70

49

21

34

10

31

Fertilizers

40

40

0

1

6

32

Tanning and dye extracts

75

27

48

0

6

33

Volatile vegetable oils; perfumery and cosmetics

56

21

35

6

10

34

Soap, detergents, cleaning materials, lubricants etc.

33

29

4

0

9

35

Proteins, starch, glue, paste and enzyms

34

3

31

0

2

36

Gunpowder and other explosives

10

10

0

6

5

37

Photographic and cinematographic goods

65

65

0

1

4

38

Miscellaneous chemical products

98

46

52

6

28

39

Plastic and articles thereof

259

171

88

2

37

40

Rubber and articles thereof

98

61

37

9

20

41

Hide, skin and leather

64

0

64

0

0

42

Leather articles, upholstery etc.

43

43

0

20

8

43

Fur and fur articles

44

4

40

4

1

44

Wood and wooden articles

171

133

38

8

27

45

Cork and cork articles

8

6

2

0

2

46

Basketwork and other articles of weave materials

13

0

13

0

0

47

Pulp of wood etc.; paper and cardboard waste

23

0

23

0

0

48

Paper, cardboard and articles thereof

205

173

32

0

18

49

Books, papers, pictures and other printed matters

28

28

0

9

6

50

Real silk

25

17

8

17

1

51

Wool and fine and coarse animal hair

71

30

41

16

3

52

Cotton

178

120

58

1

6

53

Other vegetable textile fibres

51

13

38

13

1

54

Endless chemical fibres

106

52

54

12

8

55

Short chemical fibres

168

102

66

49

11

56

Cotton, felt, fibre cloth; twine, rope and cordage

60

59

1

28

14

57

Carpets and other textile flooring

47

47

0

10

12

Table 1.1 Overview of the division of commodity numbers in the individual commodity chapters (continued) *1)

Com-modity

chapter

No.

Title

Number of tariff numbers in total

Number of tariff numbers in commodity groups

Number of tariff numbers sorted out

Number of tariff numbers in misc. group

Number of commodity groups

58

Special, woven fabrics; laces, embroideries etc.

57

21

36

21

1

59

Impregnated and coated textiles

46

15

31

9

5

60

Knitted fabric

55

55

0

17

6

61

Clothes of knitted fabric

175

175

0

112

18

62

Clothes of other than knitted fabric

225

225

0

156

22

63

Other factory-tailored textiles

88

83

5

42

12

64

Footwear, spats etc. and accessories

84

80

4

19

10

65

Headgear and accessories

18

15

3

13

2

66

Umbrellas, parasols, sticks, whips etc.

8

5

3

1

3

67

Processed feathers and downs, artificial flowers etc.

8

6

2

4

2

68

Articles of stone, gipsum, cement, asbestos and similar materials

68

68

0

8

18

69

Ceramics

52

52

0

0

10

70

Glass and glassware

158

102

56

0

11

71

Natural or cultured pearls, precious stones and metals etc.

71

26

45

26

1

72

Iron and steel

482

147

335

18

17

73

Articles of iron and steel

278

278

0

27

25

74

Copper and articles thereof

78

53

25

0

7

75

Nickel and articles thereof

18

11

7

0

1

76

Aluminium and articles thereof

72

64

8

0

8

78

Lead and articles thereof

14

6

8

1

2

79

Zinc and articles thereof

15

7

8

0

2

80

Tin and articles thereof

9

5

4

0

1

81

Other base metals, ceramic metals and articles thereof

65

29

36

1

5

82

Tools, cutlery of base metals

126

126

0

34

11

83

Miscellaneous articles of base metals

52

44

8

9

17

84

Nuclear reactors, steam boilers, machines and apparatus

1008

803

205

148

107

Table 1.1 Overview of the division of commodity numbers in the individual commodity chapters (continued) *1).

Com-modity

chapter

No.

Title

Number of tariff numbers in total

Number of tariff numbers in commodity groups

Number of tariff numbers sorted out

Number of tariff numbers in misc. group

Number of commodity groups

85

Electrical machines and apparatus

640

470

170

88

68

86

Engines, carriages, goods wagons and other railway material

45

18

27

4

9

87

Vehicles and parts for them

193

113

80

12

17

88

Aircrafts, space crafts and parts for them

30

21

9

19

2

89

Ships, boats and floating material

45

44

1

5

13

90

Optical, photographic instruments and apparatus

278

276

2

191

27

91

Watches and parts for them

72

72

0

72

1

92

Musical instruments, parts and accessories

34

34

0

33

2

93

Weapons, ammunition, parts and accessories

37

37

0

25

4

94

Furniture, bedding, lamps and lighting accessories

95

76

19

5

20

95

Toys, games and sports equipment

79

76

3

24

23

96

Miscellaneous articles and products

77

75

2

0

14

97

Works of art, collector‘s items, antiques

7

0

7

0

0

99

Confidential consignments, returns

3

0

3

0

0

Sum

10376

6647

3729

1532

966

Note:
1) Commodity chapter number and title refer to the division of tariff numbers in commodity chapters applied in the consumption tariff and misc. commodity statistics prepared by Statistics Denmark. It should be noted that the commodity chapter numbers 77 and 98 are not applied at the moment. Titles are abbreviated. Tariff numbers sorted out are deemed to be exclusively raw materials, semi-manufactures or handicraft. As to the column "number of tariff numbers in misc. group" it should be noted that a special "misc." commodity group has been established for each commodity chapter, in which the tariff numbers within the defined threshold value are included (cf. text).

It is therefore considered acceptable in this project to introduce threshold values and include tariff numbers within the stated threshold values in special "misc." commodity groups, the composition of which is not investigated in this project (cf. 1.4). This procedure has the advantage that the tariff numbers in question are still part of the ranking system, and that it is consequently relatively easy to make a more precise assessment of the industrial products in question, if it is considered relevant at a later time.

The choice of threshold value was determined on the basis of an assessment of data from Statistics Denmark - an assessment of the share of the total goods volume (production or import - 1992 data) that will end up in a "miscellaneous" commodity group at various threshold values. At this assessment, threshold values of 50, 100 and 500 tonnes were estimated. The result of this investigation was that at a threshold value of 100 t, 8 commodity chapters would be affected so much that 50% of the total goods volume (production or imports) would end up in the "misc." group. For a further 31 commodity chapters between 10 and 50% of the total goods volume would end up in the "misc." group, whereas less than 10% of the total goods volume would be affected in connection with the other goods articles.

The commodity chapters that are affected considerably (>50% of the goods volume in the "misc." group) are chapter 43 (fur), chapter 50 (real silk), chapter 53 (other vegetable textile fibres than cotton), chapter 71 (pearls, precious stones and metals) and chapter 90-93 (optical and photographic instruments, watches, musical instruments and weapons). It is common for these chapters that they include many different industrial products that are only sold in modest quantities.

Numbering of commodity groups

All commodity groups have been assigned a five-figure number. The two first figures correspond to the number of the commodity chapter in questions, whereas the three last figures are a serial number within the chapter in question. If a "misc." group has been established in a commodity chapter, this group will always be assigned the number "xx001" in which xx may vary from number 01 to 97. In the applied systematic the number "xx001" is only used for "misc." Thus, this number is not applied in commodity chapters in which no "misc." group has been established.

1.3 Quantity data

As stated in section 1.1 the calculations of both loss of recourses and energy consumption of the individual commodity groups are based on the quantity of products measured in tonnes/year sold in Denmark.

In practice it has been chosen to base the calculations (cf. appendices 1a and 2) on the mean value of production and supply in Denmark, as the supply is defined as production plus imports minus exports.

It is to be seen as a pragmatic way of solving the problem that the impact of the various industrial products on the environment is quite different. Denmark is a large-scale exporter of certain industrial products, i.e. that the Danish production is significantly larger than the imports to the Danish market. This applies to e.g. refrigerators, district heating pipes, chewing gum, plastic toys etc. From this type of industrial product the environmental impact may be much more serious in the production phase than during the consumption and disposal phases.

On the contrary, there are industrial products that by and large are not manufactured in Denmark, but imported. A typical example is cars. For this type of products the impact on the Danish environment is alone related to the use and disposal of these products (presupposed that transboundary water and air pollution is not taken into consideration).

Additionally, calculations based on supply data alone (cf. appendix 1b) have however been made. The result of these calculations shows that the ranking of commodity groups is not changed significantly, when it is based on supply data solely instead of the mean value of production and supply.

Information about production and supply of all commodity groups was procured mainly from Statistics Denmark, as mean data of the years 1990 to 1992 have been applied in order to avoid incidental variations in production and supply. Statistics Denmark have calculated the mean value of production and supply for each tariff number and subsequently summed up the figures within each commodity group. The statistic information known and applied in this project is thus in principle limited to the sum of production and supply of all tariff numbers within a commodity group. It should be noted that mean values during three years are not likely to eliminate incidental variations of industrial products like ships, trains and aircrafts. In connection with these types of products, incidental variations can only be balanced by applying average data of 10 years. This has not been done in this project, and quantity data of these types of industrial products are consequently subject to a higher uncertainty than the other commodity groups.

In connection with a small part of the tariff numbers the process encountered some technical problems that made it necessary to introduce special procedures or special rules. This was necessary in the following cases:

1) The calculated supply of a tariff number is negative

In some cases the supply of a tariff number is negative. This was observed in connection with several tariff numbers in the supply statistics for 1992. A clarification of the cause for each tariff number was not attempted, but it is judged that in principle there may be the following causes:

a) Production and/or imports are entirely or partly registered with other tariff numbers than exports

b) Production and/or imports are entirely or partly registered in another year than exports.

As to cause a) it is assessed that it is a kind of "statistical confusion" caused by the reporting procedure of the statistical data that cannot be avoided. As regards cause b) these are natural variations, which are probably to a wide extent eliminated in this project, because the calculation of production and supply data is based on mean values for 3 years.

Regardless of the actual cause that the supply is negative, the following rule is applied: If the supply of a tariff number - used as a mean value during the period of 1990 to 1992 - is negative, the supply is put as zero in the calculation. Thus it is avoided that "statistical confusion" and natural variations of a tariff number affect the quantity data of other tariff number in the same commodity group.

2) Production data are not informed in tonnes, but only in value (DKK) and other measures (numbers, litres, square metres, pairs or the like)

This is the case in connection with a series of tariff numbers dealing with industrial products, for which another measure than weight is used traditionally. Examples are tyres, bags, shoes, acetic acid, furniture etc.

In these cases the information in the foreign trade statistics of quantities in tonnes - besides information of value and other measures - has been utilised. By assuming that the weight per value unit or other measure is the same for Danish production and imports/exports, the weight of the Danish production can be estimated. The estimation of these data has been carried out by Statistics Denmark, as data of the value of exports have been used for estimation of the Danish production primarily.

For a few industrial products it has however not been possible to apply this procedure, as no imports/exports of one or more of the years 1990 to 1992 have been registered for these products. The product types and commodity groups in question are the following:

Group 49001, tariff 4911.00.00.0: Photosensitive paper and cardboard
Group 85003, tariff 8502.12.10.0: Generator sets for civil aircrafts
Group 86004, tariff 8603.10.00.0: Self-propelling carriages etc.
Group 89001, tariff 8906.00.10.0: Naval vessels
Group 89003, tariff 8901.90.10.5: Containerships

For these tariff numbers the quantities have been estimated to the same principles as stated for confidential quantity information (cf. point 3).

It should be noted that as regards naval vessels and photosensitive paper, these are quantities of a size that should not have been included in "misc." groups. Unfortunately the precise information was not available until at a time, when it was no longer possible to adjust the commodity group division.

3) Information of quantity, value and other measures of production and/or imports and/or exports is confidential

For a series of tariff numbers the information of Danish production, imports or exports are entirely confidential. This confidentiality can be achieved by a Danish enterprise by contacting Statistics Denmark and applying for it, if the applying enterprise holds an essential part of the trade within the tariff number in question.

In this project it has been necessary to procure information of Danish production and supply for all tariff numbers, as these quantity data are included in the calculations.

At the composition of commodity groups it was strived at gathering confidential tariff numbers to the widest possible extent, so that at least three confidential tariff numbers are included in a commodity group. In this way the confidentiality of the sum of the quantity information of the tariff numbers in question is lifted in principle, as it is impossible for outsiders to calculate the value of an individual tariff number on the basis of these sums.

In some cases it was however only possible to include 1 or 2 confidential tariff numbers in the same commodity group. In those cases the information of the other tariff numbers in the commodity group was procured from Statistics Denmark, whereas for the confidential number an assessment of production and supply was made.

These assessments are based partly on information from the Danish enterprises trading within the tariff numbers in question, and partly on data from literature or statistical information combined with common sense.

Table 1.2
Commodity groups containing tariff numbers in connection with which it has been necessary to assess the quantity data
 

It is stressed that the purpose of these assessments was to establish a likely order of magnitude (e.g. <1,000 t/year, 1,000 - 5,000 t/year, 5,000 - 10,000 t/year) of the information in question to ensure a reasonably correct ranking of the commodity group in question. Deliberately it was not intended to achieve very precise assessments. Even in cases where the relevant enterprise provided precise information, this information was deliberately blurred in respect of the enterprises‘ need for confidentially.

Generally the assessments are conservative, i.e. higher than the real values. This choice is based on the argument that the fact that the information is confidential does not mean that the environmental impact of the industrial products in question is underestimated. However there is deliberately no particular systematic as to how much the values have been increased compared to the real ones. Thus it should not be possible to estimate the true figures for a confidential tariff number on the basis of the quantity data stated in this project.

Especially it should be noted that in cases in which information of exports is confidential, and it has not been possible relatively easily to assess the size of these exports, the exports were conservatively stated as being zero.

Table 1.2 shows the commodity groups including confidential tariff numbers, for which it was necessary to assess the quantity data.

Table 1.3
Tariff numbers of which production and supply are based on 1992 data only


Table 1.3 Tariff numbers of which production and supply are based on 1992 data only

4) Statistical information for 1992 is more detailed than for 1990 and 1991 It has not been possible to calculate mean values of the period 1990 to 1992 for a series of tariff numbers. This concerns the tariff numbers in connection with which Statistics Denmark have applied another and/or more detailed division in 1992 than in 1990 and 1991, and in connection with which the tariff number at the commodity group division in this project were distributed into different commodity groups.

The reason for the problem is that the commodity division was made based on the supply statistics for 1992 and thus has not allowed for the changes in the use of tariff numbers that were made from 1990 and 1991 to 1992. The optimal solution of the problem would therefore be an adjustment of the commodity group division.

For temporal and other practical reasons it was chosen to base the calculations for the tariff number in question on 1992 data exclusively. Table 1.3 shows a list of the tariff numbers concerned.

1.4 Assessment of the composition of the commodity groups

As mentioned in section 1.1.2 the composition of an "average product" for the commodity group in question was estimated, as packaging and consumption of working means and spare parts throughout the life cycle of the product are considered an integrated part of the product.

These estimates were made on the basis of information from Danish manufacturers and importers, centres of research and knowledge, literature etc. combined with own assessments and measurements. The basis for the estimates as well as the applied information sources for each commodity group is stated in appendix 5.

Assessment of material composition

The typical process in connection with assessment of material composition was as follows:

• Based on the Kompass Guide of Trade and other sources of information the dominant manufacturer(s)/importer(s) of the type of industrial products in question is/are identified.
  
• In cooperation with this/these manufacturer(s)/importer(s) one or more industrial products considered typical for the commodity group is/are identified.
  
• Subsequently the material composition and the weight of the industrial product(s) in question are estimated based on information the manufacturers and importers.
  
• Then the weight and the material composition of packaging and weight, quantity and composition of working means and spare parts throughout the life cycle of the product are estimated.
  
• On this basis the material composition throughout the life cycle of the product is calculated.

In the cases, in which the commodity groups is not homogeneous, i.e. the group is composed by different products of different material composition, or in which the same product in practice is produced from different materials, the material composition of typical examples of the different product types is estimated. Thereafter the material composition of an "average product" was calculated by weighting the product types in question in relation to their estimated market share.

It was aimed to achieve information of the material composition of industrial products within a commodity group from at least two independent sources, e.g. two manufacturers. In the cases in which the market is dominated by one manufacturer only, and it was possible to obtain information from this manufacturer, one reference was however considered sufficient. It is stressed that in these cases the obtained information was the manufacturer‘s opinion of the material composition of an "average product" of the commodity group, which is not necessarily identical with the manufacturer‘s own products.

Own measurements and assessments might have been used to clarify the composition of consumer goods (e.g. the weight of buttons on a shirt) or the composition and weight of packaging compared to the real product. The share of surface treatment materials (e.g. paint, galvanisation) might be based on an estimate of the area that is treated multiplied by the typical layer/thickness of such surfaces.

At the listing of the material composition it was distinguished between the materials listed in table 1.5. The assessed material composition of each commodity group was stated in appendix 2 as well as appendix 5. As an example of these data table 1.4 states the estimated composition of the commodity group 85014 (vacuum cleaners). As it appears, the contents of all materials are stated as percentages, rounded off to whole numbers.

Threshold values

The contents of materials each constituting less than 1% of the total material weight of the product, was not attempted estimated. This threshold value was introduced as a consequence of the fact that many industrial products are composed of a very large amount of different materials, of which many are used only in very small quantities in the product. Without such a threshold a survey of the composition of industrial products would be an overwhelming task. Besides, materials in such small quantities do in reality not affect the total loss of resources or the energy consumption of the product.

For packaging materials a limit of 5% was in principle applied, based on experience from the pilot project (cf. /2/) that it should be avoided to make disproportionate efforts to survey packaging materials, if these have no significant importance for the total result. In practice it was possible to estimate also packaging materials of many commodity groups down to the level of 1%.

The total share of materials that are each below the threshold value will vary considerably from one commodity group to another. In order to avoid that a considerable part of the materials in a commodity group is not included at the ranking, it was chosen to define a fictive material ("D500 Other") to represent the sum of all the materials below the threshold value.

The material "D500 Other" was deliberately added resource and energy data that must be considered conservative compared to those of the majority of other materials (cf. table 1.5).

Table 1.4
Estimated material composition of the commodity group 85014 - vacuum cleaners

It should be noted that for commodity groups, which are in reality exclusively consisting of renewable materials that are recreated concurrently with the use (e.g. foodstuffs), the loss of resources could be considerably overestimated, if conservatively the packaging share is estimated at 5%, and only the material "D500 Other" is used to describe this packaging share. By means of a special check of composition data it was attempted to avoid such an overestimated loss of resources. At this check it was especially focused on commodity groups that could be foreseen to become ranked highly because of large quantities.

Materials that are individually below the threshold value were - to the extent they were known - included in the material composition with a contents percentage of 0. Thus it was achieved that the information that these materials are constituent parts of the product is not lost.

Miscellaneous groups

The material composition of "misc." groups (cf. section 1.2), is defined as 100% of the material "D500 Other". The result is that the ranking of "misc." groups will sooner be overestimated rather than the opposite.

Packaging

Packaging material reused directly for the same purpose (e.g. soft drink bottles, milk cases, euro pallets etc.) is written off with the product it is used for. As an example a beer bottle reused approx. 50 times is registered with only 2% of its weight. For certain types of transport packaging, e.g. tank wagons, ships etc. it can immediately be estimated that the packaging is reused so many times that it - as regards weight - is of no importance to the finished article.

Material list

The material list (cf. table 1.5) is to be considered a pragmatic attempt to identify the most used materials in industrial products. At the development of this list the following criteria were applied:

• It was distinguished between materials that are/are considered substantially different as regards resource, energy and environmental conditions
  
• It must be possible to identify the material in industrial products
  
• It was aimed at limiting the amount of different materials as much as possible.

These criteria means that under the same name materials are grouped that on the basis of other criteria would be separated. Thus the characters of many of these materials are sooner material groups than specific materials. This was considered acceptable, as the differences between the individual materials can be considered of no importance in this connection. As an example, it was considered unimportant to distinguish between low-/unalloyed cast iron and low-/unalloyed soft steel, as the difference between these materials are primarily based on the content of carbon and the applied processing techniques, which are in this connection considered insignificant.

It must be admitted though that part of the materials mentioned here (especially chemical materials) is in reality groups covering rather a large amount of materials with significantly different characteristics. An example is the material "K459 Pesticides/preservatives" covering a series of substances/materials that is significantly different - both as concerns energy consumption for manufacture and the environmental impact. It must be recognized that within the scope of this project it was not possible to distinguish more precisely between the relevant substances/materials covered by this material group. In this case the criterion "that is must be possible to identify the material in industrial products" was decisive.

Secondary materials

For a few materials in the material list a secondary material was defined (e.g. "g101 Packing glass" and "x609 packing glass"). Secondary materials are here defined as materials containing a substantial part of recycled materials. The purpose of including secondary materials is to credit the industrial products containing secondary materials with the energy gains achieved, as the secondary materials are typically cheaper than primary materials as regards energy. In practice secondary materials (except the material "x608 Crushed concrete" are normally based on a mixture of recycled (secondary) materials and primary raw materials - with significantly varying mixture proportions. There are but few secondary materials based 100% on recycled materials. All secondary materials connected to materials in the material list are defined as mixtures containing a substantial part of recycled materials. The corresponding "primary" material is accordingly defined as based exclusively or predominantly on primary raw materials.

Secondary versus primary material

There were special considerations in connection with the use of secondary versus primary materials, as manufacturers and importers normally do not know whether the materials contained in industrial products are secondary or primary. Comments on the most important secondary materials are as follows:

Cast iron/soft steel (low-alloyed)

On the basis of information from /6, 7/ the secondary and primary materials can be divided approximately as follows:

• Applications like iron bars (round bars, angle iron, channel iron etc.), steel sheets and products thereof (e.g. welded pipes and pipe profiles) and cast iron are predominantly (75-100%) secondary materials. For such applications solely the material "x600" is used.
  
• Large oil and gas pipes and other applications subject to heavy safety demands are exclusively primary materials. For such applications is here solely used the material "j010".
  
• Beams (e.g. I profiles) are approximately 50% secondary and 50% primary materials. For such applications is here solely used the material "x600".
  
• Other low-alloy steel is predominantly (50 - 100%) secondary materials. For such applications is here solely used the material "x600".
  

Aluminium

On the basis of information from /8, 9, 10, 11, 12/ it is estimated that the division between secondary and primary materials is approximately as follows:

• Cables, foils and construction materials meeting heavy strength demands are exclusively primary materials. For such applications is here solely used the material "m050".
  
• Castings, façade sheets and similar mass applications with limited strength demands are predominantly (75%) secondary materials. For such applications are here solely used the material "x601".
  
• Other applications are predominantly (90 - 100%) primary materials. For such applications are here solely used the material "m050".
  

Copper

On the basis of information from /13, 14/ it is assessed that the division between secondary and primary materials are approximately as follows:

• Cables and electrolyte copper are exclusively primary materials. For such applications are here solely used the material "m053".
  
• Other purposes, including alloys are predominantly secondary materials. For such applications are here solely used the material "x602".
  

Packing glass

According to information from Holmegaards Glasværk (glassworks) all packing glass manufactured in Denmark contains waste glass in varying quantities. Therefore packing glass manufactured in Denmark is in this report considered a secondary material. As Danish products packed in glass on the whole dominate the market, it was chosen to consider all packing glass secondary material.

Cardboard and paper

Cardboard is a material based on secondary materials to a wide extent. In this project all wrapping cardboard is considered secondary material. As regards paper, products like egg trays, kitchen rolls and toilet paper are secondary materials, whereas other paper products conservatively are considered primary materials.

Working means

Working means are in this project considered related to the machine where they are used - not to the product processed in the machine. In this way, detergents, softeners and water are counted among the materials belonging to a washing machine, and not included in the material composition of textiles. It is stressed that the products (e.g. textiles) treated in the machine are not included in the working means.

The material drinking water as a working means

The sum of all materials in an industrial product will of course always be 100%. In connection with one individual material - drinking water - it was however found appropriate to depart from this rule. The reason is that as regards the industrial products in connection with which water is a working means (e.g. washing machines, dish washers, textile processing machines etc.) the consumption of water throughout the life cycle of the product is normally so large that the relative contents of all other materials will be far below 1% (i.e. the machine is in practice composed exclusively of drinking water). As drinking water is considered a renewable material that is recreated concurrently with its use, this would mean that the loss of resources for the machines in question would be calculated as zero. This of course would be an absurd result which would be due to the chosen calculation procedure exclusively. In order to avoid this result, it was chosen to decide the composition in such a way that the sum of all materials other than water will be 100% for the industrial products including water as a working means. Then the relative contents of water is calculated, the result of which might be several thousand percent.

Shortcomings of the material list

It was necessary to prepare the material list at an early stage of the project. For various reasons - time or other practical causes - it was not possible later on to correct the material list, even though it turned out to be incomplete and inappropriate. Some of the recognized material list problems are as follows:

• The material "s161 China" covers both sanitary china and tableware china which are apparently (cf. material data in appendix 6) substantially different as regards energy consumption for the manufacturing process.
  
• In reality there is no reason for distinguishing between the materials "u308 Urethane rubber" and "p364 Polyurethane". Material data for these two materials are identical (cf. appendix 6).
  
• The material "s156 Concrete elements" is not a material, but an industrial product.
  
• The list should have included more secondary materials, because stainless steel, high-alloyed soft steel and a series of other metals are to a wide extent used as secondary materials also.
  
• A material named "vegetable residual products" covering residual products from the manufacturing of vegetable oils, sugar, beer etc. is missing.
  
• In some cases it would be appropriate to be able to distinguish whether the material "d500 Other" is renewable or non-renewable.
  
• Materials to describe low-value fuels like lignite and peat are missing. Lignite is in this project described by the material "k 450 Carbon", whose resource and energy data are based on pit-coal, whereas peat is described as "v227 Other vegetable materials", whose resource and energy data were calculated as an average of the other vegetable materials.

The material division is thus in no way to be considered the final and optimal division, but rather a qualified estimate considered useful in connection with this project. This implies of course that the errors caused by the shortcomings of the material list are taken into consideration at the assessment of the project results.

1.5 Resource and energy data

1.5.1 Resource data

The assessment of the loss of resources for commodity groups is based on an estimated loss of resources for each individual material in the commodity group. At the same time it was decided whether the material was considered renewable, and if renewable materials were recreated concurrently with their use.

Loss of resources

The loss of resources of each individual material was determined on the basis of the size of the part of the material in the finished industrial product that will not be recycled in the end. At the assessment the following kinds of loss were in principle considered:

• Wear and corrosion in the distribution, consumption and recycling/disposal phases (at transport of the product from factory to consumers, at the use of the product and at collection, treatment and sorting of discarded products and the contained materials).
  
• Loss to waste (the product ends as waste that is disposed of and incinerated instead of being recycled).

These losses are here mainly assessed to be dependent on the material in question. Consequently it is here considered meaningful to talk of "an average material-dependent loss of resources" indicating the part of the material that will normally be lost, irrespective of the industrial product in which it is used. E.g. it was calculated that the average loss of resources of the material "j010 Cast iron/soft steel (unalloyed/low-alloyed)" will be 10%.

This means that as an average approx. 10% of all the low-alloyed iron and steel introduced to the Danish community with industrial products are lost and approx. 90% are recycled.

Table 1.5 shows the average loss of resources of each material. The loss of resources was determined on the basis of knowledge available in literature, information from experts, including the recycling trade in Denmark, and common sense. The stated loss of resources is considered covering the situation in Denmark in the early nineties. The precise arguments for the loss of resources are stated in appendix 6.

For certain industrial products the loss of resources of the materials will deviate from the average loss of resources. This applies especially to products that are not likely to be recycled. E.g. a wrist watch or a ballpoint pen of stainless steel that is discarded must be expected to end up in the rubbish bin together with the refuse instead of being collected with scrap iron. The real loss of resources of stainless steel in the wrist watch/ballpoint pen is consequently closer to 100% rather than the 3% estimated to be the average loss of resources for stainless steel (cf. table 1.5).

To avoid this problem an estimate was made for all commodity groups of whether the loss of resources for one or more materials in the commodity group in question would deviate from the average loss of resources. Then the calculation value was estimated and determined. The precise estimates and actual data of each commodity group appear from appendix 5.

It is stressed that by calculating the loss of resources in this way, it was not considered that there is a considerable recycling of certain products in the use phase. As examples are mentioned used car doors taken out from ramshackle cars and resold; old timber beams cut out for other purposes and used bricks from demolished buildings used for new buildings. This kind of recycling is not considered at the calculation of the loss of resources for materials. This kind of recycling is however indirectly included in the calculations, as in reality the life cycles of the industrial products are extended resulting in a decreased consumption of new industrial products. In this way the influence of this kind of recycling means a decreased quantity of industrial products calculated.

Renewable materials

As mentioned in section 1.1.2 it was in this project chosen to consider all materials based on geological resources to be non-renewable materials, whereas vegetable and animal materials were considered renewable materials. Additionally there is however a long series of other materials estimated to be renewable.

Thus are gases recovered from the air - and sooner or later will escape to the air again - considered renewable materials. Carbon dioxide mainly produced by burning of fossil fuels is however because of the production method estimated a non-renewable material.

Table 1.5



‘Table 1.5 - Continued‘

‘Table 1.5 Continued‘

‘Table 1.5 - Continued‘

 
‘Table 1.5 - Continued‘

Notes for table 1.5:

*1 Data stated in this list are derived from appendix 6. As regards definition of headings, reference is made to section 1.5 in the text.

*2 High-alloy soft steel and cast iron are defined as steel and iron with more than 5% alloy components.

*3 Stainless steel is defined as steel with more than 12% chromium. Some steel types can be categorized as either j012 or j013. The category considered the most natural based on the application was chosen

*4 Alloys are categorised according to their dominant metal, unless they belong with one of the alloys specifically mentioned.

*5 Nickel-copper alloys are all alloys with essential contents of copper and nickel, including German silver (copper-zinc-nickel) and aluminium bronze (copper-aluminium-nickel). The aluminium bronze is the bronze alloy to be applied, when bronze is to meet heavy demands on strength (cf. tin bronze).

*6 Copper-tin alloys are all alloys containing copper and tin, including red bronze (copper-tin-lead-zinc) and tin bronze (copper-tin). Tin bronze is considered typically used for decoration purposes (figures etc.) and as bearing material in machines/motors. Tin bronze often contains a little lead and is then called lead bronze).

*7 This material is fibres of sisal (agave), coconut, jute, flax etc.

*8 This material is both vegetable oils for cooking and linseed oil etc.

*9 Includes also UV-hardening paints and lacquers.

*10 Chromating, phosphating and anodizing are methods for surface treatment of metals - methods that in principle are based on oxidation of the surface leading to formation of corrosion products that protect against further oxidation. Anodizing is used for aluminium only. It should be noted that at the computer calculations of the energy consumption the ASC values are stated as zero. The reason is that an upper limit of the ASC values of 3,000 GJ/tonne was entered in the computer system. Due to the very layers developed by chromating and phosphating this will however have no significant influence on the calculated results.

There are special considerations in connection with salt (NaC1) and products manufactured on the basis of salt. As sea salt, salt is a renewable resource, as the greater part of the salt quantity used in the Danish community must be anticipated returned to the sea. This takes place partly as salt discharged to the sea with wastewater and rainwater, and partly indirectly because of the chemical compounds sodium and chlorine that are extracted from salt are spread in the community and the environment, but sooner or later combine again thus generating salt. In this way there is a constant cycle of sea salt. It is however different with rock salt, which is a geological occurrence that must be considered a non-renewable resource.

Generally the principle used in this project is that today‘s dominant resource and process of manufacture decide whether a certain material is assessed to be renewable or non-renewable. As regards salt, the situation is that in Denmark the production is exclusively based on rock salt, whereas sea salt internationally by and large has similar - or maybe even higher importance. For that reason it was in this project chosen to consider salt and all products manufactured on the basis of salt (including chlorine, salts and bases, of which sodium compounds are the chief part of the consumption) as renewable resources.

It should be noted that the material "k457 Photographic chemicals" are assessed to be renewable, as this material is dominated by sulphur and sodium compounds, which are considered renewable.

The principle that the dominant resource and process manufacture are decisive for the assessment of the material in question became important to a series of chemical materials that actually include many different substances, of which some are based on renewable resources and others on non-renewable resources. This is not dealt with in detail her, but it should be mentioned that it was necessary to make a choice in connection with several materials, and it might of course be discussed whether this choice was appropriate.

Is the resource recreated concurrently with its use?

For all renewable materials it was assessed whether the resource is recreated concurrently with its present use. As regards the all-important part of the renewable materials there was no doubt that a sufficient recreation is in fact taking place. As an example it can be mentioned that the resource of wood - and thus the dominant resource of cardboard, paper and many other materials - at least in Northern Europe - is growing. The only materials that caused special considerations were "v204 Precious woods - tropical" and "a252 Fish and shellfish".

It was chosen here to consider the material "v204 Precious woods - tropical" as a material that is not recreated concurrently with its use, as this was considered the case as regards the dominant part of tropical wood. This assessment was considered as not being contrary to the fact that certain types of wood, e.g. teak, are predominantly based on working of plantations and consequently should be recreated to a sufficient extent. Contrary to that, it was assessed that the resource "a252 Fish & shellfish" is recreated concurrently with its use. This assessment presupposes that the specified catch quota ensure that the resource is not exploited excessively. It is stressed that in connection with the assessment as to whether a renewable resource is recreated concurrently with its use, it was not considered whether the resource was manufactured in a sustainable way. Such an assessment that considers the impact by the manufacture on the environment (e.g. the correlation between the agricultural meat production, the manure and the nitrogen impact on the marine environment and the resulting consequences) is far more complex and of an extent that was impossible to fit into the scope of this project.

1.5.2 Energy data

For all materials in this project data of the following were estimated:

• Energy consumption for extraction and manufacture (normally named ASC = the Accumulated material Specific energy Consumption)
  
• Energy consumption for processing
  
• Energy content (also called latent energy) of the material.
  

Additionally, for certain commodity groups - if relevant - the energy consumption during the use of the industrial products was estimated.

It should be noted that E_P (energy consumption for extraction, manufacture and processing of materials plus the energy of these materials - cf. table 1.1) was calculated as the sum of ASC + processing supplement (if relevant) + energy content (if relevant).

ASC (= Accumulated material-Specific energy Consumption

At the calculation of the energy consumption for extraction and manufacture (ASC) of materials, the energy consumption for the following purposes is in principle included, as the aim was to establish a realistic estimate of the energy consumption:

• Extraction of raw materials
  
• Processing of raw materials
  
• Heating, lighting and securing of environment and working environment at places of manufacture
  
• Transport of raw materials and materials (only included to the extent that the energy consumption for transportation is significant compared to energy consumption for other purposes)
  
• Conversion and refining of energy.

Information of ASC was collected from all available sources, including literature, centres for research and knowledge, experts, foreign databases as well as Danish enterprises. In certain cases it was necessary to estimate the ASC on the basis of enthalpy calculations (i.e. by calculating the difference in the chemical energy contents of the raw materials compared to the end product - the enthalpy = the chemical energy contents; the enthalpy of a chemical material depends on the position of electrons in relation to the nuclei of the atoms.

For a few materials the energy consumption was established based on a comparison to other materials. Table 1.5 shows the estimated data of ASC for all materials. The precise preconditions and calculations of each material appear from appendix 6.

Literature was the preferred data source to the extent that information was at all available. Data from literature vary however considerably because of differences of technology levels and the age of the data in question.

It was attempted to compensate for differences of age (e.g. data from 1970 versus data from 1980) by projecting all information of ASC to 1990. Thus an immediate comparison between literature data and current data provided by enterprises was achieved.

The projecting of old data to 1990 is in all cases based on the development of energy efficiency within the relevant trades in Denmark. In this connection the Danish research institution RISØ provided assistance. On the basis of Statistics Denmark‘s input-output statistics RISØ calculated the energy efficiency measured as energy consumption (in TJ) in relation to production value (in million DKK) for all trades in Denmark for all years during the period of 1970 to 1989 /16/. These figures show that certain trades, e.g. the metal industry, have a significant development in the form of higher energy efficiency, whereas the picture of other trades is rather confusing, which is probably indicating structural changes within the trades in question - rather than varying energy efficiency. Here it was chosen to carry out projecting for only the trades showing a distinct development. This development was subsequently considered to apply to Danish as well as foreign production processes.

In this project it was not possible to relate data from different sources to different technology levels. For materials for which several data of ASC values were available, the ASC value was in practice established as the mean value of the available data. Data that were considered less reliable or less representative were however neglected.

All ASC values (and other energy data) were recalculated to consumption of primary energy, i.e. it was compensated for loss of energy at refining of oil and at conversion of primary fuels to electricity. The recalculation was made by defining the energy efficiency of the most important energy sources used in manufacture and transport processes. The following energy efficiency values were applied:

These energy efficiency values are in practice used in such a way that e.g. the energy consumption in the form of electricity was divided by 35% = 35/100 = 0.35 to achieve the ASC value.

To the extent that a material is created as a by-product at the manufacture of another material, only the energy consumption for the further processing was included at the calculation of the ASC value of the by-product. E.g. wool, leather and feather are considered by-products of meat production. Therefore, energy consumption for breeding of animals is included under meat products and not under wool, leather and feather. The correctness of this assumption can of course be discussed, especially in connection with by-products, such as wool that has a real commercial value.

The energy consumption for transport is generally a comparatively small part of the total ASC value and typically less than 1 GJ/tonne. In some cases, e.g. carriage by sea from other continents, the transport contribution may increase to 1 - 3 GJ/tonne. The transport contribution was estimated and included in the ASC value in the cases in which this contribution was considered significant compared to the energy consumption for other purposes. The unit values stated in table 1.6 were used at the calculation of the transport contribution.

‘Table 1.6‘

Enthalpy calculations

For a series of materials it was not possible to procure data of ASC values from literature, centres of research and knowledge or Danish enterprises. For some of these materials it was in this project chosen to carry out enthalpy calculations (i.e. calculation of the difference in the chemical energy contents of the raw materials compared to the end product). These calculations were carried out for synthetic rubber materials and chemical compounds.

The enthalpy calculations are based on the raw materials used for manufacture of the chemical compounds. Naturally it was necessary to look at the raw materials of which ASC values are available. Then the process stages - that the raw materials are to pass to become chemical compounds - are assessed. Each stage is characterised by certain chemical intermediate products, each representing an energy level (enthalpy = the chemical energy contents of chemical substances). On the basis of the composition of chemical compounds and intermediate products it can be assessed whether each process stage requires supply of energy or develops energy and the energy quantity per tonne of chemical compound. By adding these energy quantities it was possible to calculate the total energy quantity (i.e. process energy quantity) necessary to convert the raw materials to the required chemical compounds. It is stressed that it is possible to estimate the minimum energy requirement during the process from raw material to finished article by this calculation. The calculation does not consider comfort energy, transport etc.

For the materials in connection with which this calculation was made it was chosen here to only include the process stages requiring supply of energy. Further it was chosen to establish the ASC value as being the calculated minimum energy need plus 100%, thus including comfort energy, transport etc. Such a calculation is of course subject to some uncertainty, but is nevertheless assessed to result in a realistic ASC value.

As enthalpy calculations represent rather a heavy workload, it was not possible to make such calculations for all materials for which information of ASC was not available in literature etc. For certain materials it was therefore considered acceptable to make a qualified estimate based on knowledge of other materials. As an example, the ASC value of cadmium was established to be corresponding to the value of zinc, as cadmium exclusively is extracted as a by-product at zinc production. Correspondingly the ASC value of the material "k454 Other solvents (chlorinated etc.)" was estimated on the basis of knowledge of the energy consumption at the manufacture of oxygen containing solvents and the energy consumption at the manufacture of pesticides.

Finally it should be noted that for materials that are in reality material groups (especially chemical materials) the same rule as for loss of resources was used, that is to say that the ASC value was established on the basis of the dominant materials. Thus the ASC value of the material "k470 bases" determined on the basis of the ASC value of NaOH, which is the overall dominant technical base.

Processing supplement

The ASC value as described above will only to a limited extent include the energy consumption throughout all the processing stages of the industrial product. An example is that the ASC value of steel and other metals normally only covers typical commercial products from metal works like bars, beams and sheets, whereas the material of the finished goods might turn out to be in special forms and dimensions after having undergone a series of adaptation, hardening and polishing processes. Correspondingly the ASC values of foodstuffs and other vegetable and animal products cover only the materials as raw (fresh, cut out meat, rough timber), whereas the character of the finished article might be e.g. ready-made casseroles and furniture. For a series of materials there might thus be significant energy consumption in the further processing.

Here it was chosen to allow for this additional energy consumption by defining a special processing supplement. This processing supplement reflects the additional energy consumption typically required at the further processing of materials that can also be used unprocessed. Table 1.5 shows the processing supplement for materials to which such a supplement seems relevant.

Whether the processing supplement of a material should be included in the calculation was decided on the basis of an assessment of the material composition of each individual commodity group (cf. appendix 5). For all materials stated as being included in a commodity group it was considered whether to add processing supplement to the material in question or not. If in the column of processing supplement a Y for yes is stated, a processing supplement has been added at the calculation of the energy consumption of the material in question (i.e. E_P (cf. table 1.1) was calculated as ASC + processing supplement + energy content (if relevant)). If an N for no is stated, no processing supplement has been added (i.e. E_P was calculated as ASC + energy content (if relevant)).

Thus it was chosen to consider the question of processing supplement for the individual materials in an industrial product as a question of either/or, which is of course a drastic simplification of reality. In practice the energy consumption for processing of materials varies from one product to another within wide limits. Consequently it would be much more appropriate to apply a graded scale. Roughly estimated, a scale with a range of 10 and 200% of the processing supplements stated here would be needed. The problem is however that the knowledge required for creating such a scale, let alone judging precisely where on the scale each individual material of industrial product is to be placed is not available. Such scales may be developed within the coming 10 years, but the task would in any case be enormous. The choice made in this project - to treat the processing supplement as an either/or - must consequently be considered the only realistic method for systematically taking the energy consumption related to further processing of a certain material under consideration.

Processing supplement - when?

It was not possible to make precise definitions of when a processing supplement should be added. Guidelines were however provided, which were the basis for the decisions made for each individual commodity group. A short resume of these guidelines appears from table 1.7 below.

‘Table 1.7‘

When processing supplements have not been added to a series of materials, this is due to the following:

• The material is assessed to mainly being used as it is without any further processing (applies to e.g. a series of chemical materials)
  
• The material corresponds in processed condition to another material included in the list (applies to e.g. pulverised lime, which in processed condition corresponds to lime clinkers)
  
• The material is in practice always processed into its final form at once, and the processing supplement is therefore included in the ASC value (applies to e.g. rubber and plastic materials)
  
• The processing supplement is considered insignificant (applies to e.g. paint and printing ink, to which a processing supplement should have been added to cover industrial use of these products; this supplement is however considered insignificant considering the systematic error that the ASC value of the material considers both dry matters and solvents, whereas in the material composition only the dry matters contained in the finished article are considered; this error is found acceptable, because paint and printing ink are always but a marginal part of the finished article).

The data used for the estimation of the processing supplement were derived partly from Danish enterprises, partly from literature. All data were converted to primary energy to the same principle as used at the calculation of ASC values. To the extent that data from literature are old, these have been projected to approx. 1990 in the same way as described in connection with ASC values. The precise preconditions of the stated ASC values are for each material described in appendix 6.

Energy content

The energy content of the materials stated in table 1.5 is the net calorific value calculated as the calorific value of the dry matter contents minus the energy quantity needed to heat the water contents from 20°C to 100° C and convert this water contents to steam.

Information of the energy content of the various materials is to a wide extent found in literature. In certain cases it was however necessary to estimate the calorific value of the dry matter content and then subsequently calculate the net calorific value. The precise preconditions of each material appear from appendix 6.

The energy content is among other things used to calculate the energy of each commodity group expected to be recovered, if the entire material quantity ending up as loss of resources is collected with combustible waste. The preconditions of this calculation are that 75% of all combustible waste ends up in solid waste incineration plants, and that the average energy efficiency of such plants is approx. 80%. This corresponds fairly to the present situation, as the presumed energy efficiency among other things allows for the fact that it will only be possible to utilise part of the produced waste-generated heat during the summer period.

It should be noted that this calculation of certain commodity groups is not quite precise, as it presupposes that the loss of resources (more precisely 75% hereof) is always brought to incineration plants. Thus it is not allowed for the fact that certain commodity groups (e.g. foodstuffs) the loss of resources will never - or only to a modest extent - end up in incineration plants. As regards other commodity groups (e.g. coal) the loss of resources will be incinerated all right, but the energy exploitation will be different than the one in an incineration plant.

As far as it can be assessed, the inaccuracy of the resulting calculated data will be within the general uncertainties of the calculation results. Thus it has no significant importance to the ranking of the commodity groups.

Energy consumption during use

The energy consumption during use was in principle calculated as the total energy consumption during the use phase/throughout the life of the industrial product. This calculation was normally based on information of the energy consumption per working hour of a typical product in the commodity group combined with an estimate of the total quantity of working hours throughout the life of the product. In this way the total energy consumption throughout the life for each product of the commodity group was estimated. At this estimate all types of energy consumption were converted to primary energy to the same principles used at the calculation of ASC values.

In order to determine the total energy consumption in the working phase of the commodity group it was necessary to know the amount of products in the commodity group. This amount was here calculated on the same quantitative basis as is generally used in the calculations (cf. section 1.3), as an average weight of industrial products in the commodity group was estimated.

Data of energy consumption per working hour and average weight are to a wide extent based on information provided by Danish enterprises and importers. The average weight was alternatively calculated on the basis of information in the foreign trade statistics. The estimated energy consumption and average weight for each commodity group are together with the precise preconditions stated in appendix 5.

1.6 Environmentally harmful substances

As stated in section 1.1.3 it was assessed for each individual commodity group whether it contained environmentally harmful substances. At this assessment in this project the focus was exclusively on the environmentally harmful substances cadmium, lead, nickel, copper and phthalates.

The background for the choice of these substances is that the substances in question and their applications are today only partly regulated, and in the author‘s opinion it is considered likely that some day some kind of regulation will be introduced (or the regulation in force will become more stringent), as it is known that the substances and applications in different ways cause environmental problems.

It was found unnecessary to focus on substances already regulated (examples: PCB, pentachlorophenol, cadmium in plastic etc.), or of which regulation is immediately forthcoming (mercury), as the applications of these substances are known in detail.

It should be noted that industrial products contain many other environmentally harmful chemical substances than the ones mentioned here. The amount of environmentally harmful chemical substances that could and should be included at the assessment of the environmental impact related to industrial products, are in reality considerably large. That only the substances cadmium, lead, nickel, copper and phthalates are considered in this project, is primarily due to the time and resource limits this project was subject to. An extension of the list of environmentally harmful chemical substances in industrial products established here might consequently be needed.

It should be stressed however that as the occurrence of certain environmentally harmful substances to a wide extent is related to the use of certain materials, far more environmentally harmful substances than the five substances/substance groups focused on in this section have been identified in this project. Thus the occurrence of PAH compounds is mainly related to petrochemical liquids, bitumen and asphalt, whereas e.g. the occurrence of chromium is mainly related to iron and steel alloys, chromium surfaces (chromium-plating) and leather (chrome-tanned).

Comments on the chosen substances/substance groups especially focused on in this section are as follows:

Cadmium is generally accepted as one of the most important environmental poisons. A number of the most essential applications of cadmium has already been regulated, and the use of cadmium for most purposes has ceased or is decreasing.

NiCd batteries are an exception to this development. These batteries are used in more and more contexts, and the consumption has been increasing considerably for a number of years. The use of these batteries is today partly regulated, as they are attempted collected and reused. The collection results do however not live up to the goals determined /23/, and it is assessed that there is a need for further measures or regulations.

Lead is also identified as one of the most important environmental poisons. Only the most problematic uses (lead shots, lead additives for petrol etc.) have so far been regulated. It is however the objective of the Danish Environmental Protection Agency that the use of lead for most purposes should cease in the long term /22/.

Nickel is especially known in relation with nickel allergy, and in this connection a regulation has been introduced. New investigations have however revealed that nickel is also a problem in connection with use and disposal of slag from solid waste incineration plants /20/. It is assessed here that nickel will be one of the heavy metals that the Danish EPA will focus on in the years to come.

Copper is simultaneously an essential nutritious matter and an important ingredient in a number of pesticides. Recent investigations have shown that copper poses a problem in connection with use and disposal of slag from solid waste incineration plants /20/. It is assessed here that copper will be one of the heavy metals that the Danish EPA will focus on in the years to come.

Phthalates are a substance group that has drawn a lot of attention for many years (risk of cancer etc.) At a recent investigation of environmentally harmful substances in residual products and emissions from solid waste treatment facilities the phthalates DEHP and DBP are ranked as the two organic compounds in such residual products and emissions resulting in the most severe environmental impact /21/. It is assessed here that phthalates are a substance group for which substitution considerations will be initiated in the years to come.

In table 1.8 the included uses of the individual substances are stated. It is stressed that as regards nickel, copper and phthalates no detailed investigation of the application pattern in Denmark has so far been carried out. The applications of the substances in question mentioned in table 1.8 are consequently to be considered fingertip knowledge and far from a complete overview.

‘Table 1.8‘

All intentional applications, except the use of lead compounds as siccative in paint, as it is unclear to what extent it still occurs in Denmark. All applications as pure metal, metal alloys and surface treatment (nickel-plating) except solder alloys (the use of nickel for this purpose is unclear). Not applications as chemical compounds and natural/artificial contaminant All applications as pure metal, metal alloys, surface treatment and pesticides. Other applications like chemical compounds are only partly covered, whereas applications like natural/artificial contaminant are not. Application like softener in soft PVC. Applications like softener in water-based paints, glue, printing ink and active substance in mosquito (Pht)repellent are not included.

2 Results

2.1 Assessment of calculation results

The result of the calculations appears from appendices 1a and 1b. The calculations in appendix 1a are based on the mean value of volumes of production and supply, whereas the calculations in appendix 1b are based on volumes of supply only. In both appendices 1a and 1b all commodity groups are stated according to their final weighted ranking, which allows for both loss of resources and energy consumption. Additionally the following information is given for all commodity groups:

• Quantitative basis, i.e. the quantitative data used in the calculations
  
• Calculated loss of resources and ranking after loss of resources
  
• Calculated energy consumption and ranking after energy consumption
  
• The environmentally harmful substances included in the products of the commodity group (cf. section 1.6).
  

It should be noted that more commodity groups may have the same ranking, and further that appendix 1a includes all commodity groups, whereas in appendix 1b only the approx. 200 highest ranked commodity groups - to save space - are included.

Below the results of the most interesting of the approx. 50 highest ranked commodity groups are commented on:

As regards the 50 highest ranked commodity groups there is only a small difference in the lists in appendices 1a and 1b. In practice 44 repetitions can be registered. The six commodity groups from appendix 1a, which are not included in the 50 first groups in appendix 1b, can be found among no. 50 to 82 in appendix 1b. As regards the upper 50 commodity groups there is thus no significant difference as to whether the ranking is based on volumes of supply exclusively or on the mean value of volumes of production and supply. In reality these are products, which are sold in very large quantities or in other ways involve a loss of resources and/or energy consumption so high that this will be perceptible in both cases.

Even though the upper 50 commodity groups represent many different types of industrial products and in reality also semi-manufactures and raw materials, there is a fairly clear picture of the sectors of society that are interesting, when the topic is loss of resources and energy consumption.

It can be discussed whether these goods should be considered industrial products or semi-manufactures/raw materials. As they are included here, it is natural that they are placed at the top of this list because of the large quantities used and consumed (i.e. are lost). Even though the calculation of the energy consumption for these commodity groups is not accurate (in the calculation it is assessed that 60% of the energy content is utilised, whereas the real figures are 40% for pit coal and 80 - 90% for other fuels), the results reflect nevertheless the fact that a significant part of the energy of these fuels is not utilised. The greater part of the calculated energy consumption reflects in reality the energy that is lost.

The transport sector

The next sector appearing is the transport sector. This sector is among the 50 upper commodity groups represented by the following groups:

89003 Oceangoing cargo vessels
84004 Refrigerator ships
87004 Passenger cars
86005 Trains 87006 Lorries and vans
89002 Passenger ships

The above are all industrial products of long life and considerable energy consumption during their use phase. The loss of resources of these products is however not insignificant. For ships that are predominantly made of iron and steel (which are recyclable without any problems), lubricating oils and other system liquids for motors etc. are the dominant part of the loss of resources. Cars and trains have relatively larger contents of plastic and other materials that are not - or only to a limited extent - reusable. Generally it should be noted that the results show that the transport sector is one of the most significant energy consumers, which is due to the heavy transportation demands in the Danish community as it is organised today. The extent to which the energy consumption for carrier vessels and refrigerator ships can rightfully be considered harmful to the Danish community and environment could of course be a subject of discussion, as these ships are mainly used in international trade, and their use therefore is not related especially to the Danish community. As to cars, it should be considered how the energy consumption could be reduced (lightweight materials, more energy-efficient motors?) simultaneously with an increase of the share of recyclable materials.

Agriculture

A third important sector is agriculture and related industries, among others the fertilizer and the food industries. This sector is among the 50 upper commodity groups represented by the following groups:

31006 Mixed fertilizers
31003 Nitrogenous fertilizers
28006 Ammonia
23006 Oilcakes and similar residual products
02002 Fresh, refrigerated meat of mammals
23002 Meat meal, bone meal, fishmeal and similar animal feeding stuff
16006 Ready-made meat and slices of meat
04009 Cheese
23009 Animal feed except for cats and dogs

Generally these goods are included, because they are sold in very large quantities. As regards fertilizers, these are based on raw materials, which are here considered non-renewable resources. Phosphorous minerals are in themselves a geological resource, whereas ammonia, which is also the basis material of the greater part of the nitrogenous fertilizers - is considered a non-renewable resource, as the hydrogen contained in ammonia is today produced from fossil fuels. If the hydrogen were instead manufactured by electrolytic dissociation of water, the ammonia would be considered a renewable resource.

The energy consumption for manufacture of meat can predominantly (cf. material data in appendix 6 for the material "a250 Meat from mammals") be traced back to agriculture‘s consumption of energy for feeding stuff, heating, ventilation etc.

The high ranking of so many products related to agriculture draws focus to agriculture‘s nitrogen balances (nitrogenous fertilizers as well as manure), but also to the fact that agriculture‘s entire meat production in reality involves a significant loss of energy, when energy in vegetable raw materials is converted to meat products.

Building and civil trade

The building and civil trade is represented among the upper 50 commodity groups by the following products:

The high ranking of these products is primarily due to the fact that they are sold in very large quantities. Some of these products (cement and steel reinforcement) are in reality predominantly semi-manufactures, e.g. used for manufacture of concrete goods. At the calculation of loss of resources for concrete it was taken into consideration that 70% (cf. appendix 6) is estimated to be reused, substituting new gravel and stone/gravel aggregates for road building. It might of course be a subject of discussion whether gravel and stone are a resource that the community should be just as concerned about as other resources. On the other hand it must be assessed that the loss of resources in any case represents a considerable need for landfill capacity that should be minimised in the interest of the society. An overall assessment is that the result points in the direction that a continued improvement of the reuse of concrete, and a minimisation of the energy consumption at the manufacture of cement and concrete should be given high priority. Because of the comprehensive quantities concerned even minor improvements would be of great importance in relation to many other products.

Goods of gypsum and rock wool are high-ranked, partly because of the large quantities and partly because there is no recycling of these goods meaning that the entire consumption in reality represents a loss of resources.

Asphalt and bitumen-containing mixtures cover predominantly asphalt layers for roads. In the calculation the significant reuse of old asphalt occurring today was taken into consideration. In spite of that, the loss of resources and the energy consumption are however still considerable. That means - as in connection with concrete - that even minor improvements would be of great importance in relation to many other products.

The consumption sector

Industrial products for households and ordinary consumption are represented among the upper 50 commodity groups by the following groups:

84021 Refrigerators, upright and home freezers
84084 Washing machines
85050 Televisions and video machines
94008 Furniture of wood-fibre boards and the like
49004 Papers and magazines
22005 Bottled beer
39022 Carrier bags, sacks and the like of plastic materials
76003 Aluminium foil and articles hereof
94020 Lighting accessories (for incandescent lamps)
94013 Lighting accessories (not for incandescent lamps)

The high ranking of refrigerators, washing machines, television etc. is first and foremost due to the energy consumption during use. The result shows that there is every reason to continue the present efforts to promote the development and the use of low-energy equipment. For washing machines the loss of resources has however also a relatively high importance. Measured throughout the life of a washing machine, detergents and softeners account for 86% of the total material quantity for a washing machine, whereas the machine and the belonging packaging are only 14%. It is thus evident that possible efforts in connection with washing machines should focus on the function of the machine (i.e. consumption of soap etc.) rather than on the materials, of which the machine is composed.

Furniture of wood-fibre boards and similar products (includes all types of furniture based on chipboards and wood-fibre boards), papers and magazines and bottled beer are high-ranked primarily because of the large quantities. For papers and magazines the calculated loss of resources is solely related to the printing ink. For bottled beer the loss of resources is related to the cap and the small share of beer bottles that is not reused, neither as bottle nor material. For furniture the picture is much more diffuse, as besides the wood-fibre and chipboards a wide selection of renewable as well as non-renewable materials - including various veneer, plastic and metal materials, paints and lacquers for surface treatment, edges etc. - are used. It should be evaluated whether there are reasons to consider how the share of renewable materials could be increased (can e.g. printing ink be produced exclusively from renewable materials?), and whether it would be possible to reduce the energy consumption for the manufacture processes.

Carrier bags etc. of plastic materials as well as aluminium foil are transport and packaging articles used for a series of purposes. The high ranking provides a reason to consider - among other things - whether recycling arrangements for the materials included in these commodity groups should be established.

Lighting accessories (lamps, fittings) are high-ranked, because the energy consumption of the incandescent lamps, fluorescent tubes etc. for the entire life of the lamp/fittings is included. Thus the focus is directed to the role of the lamp/fittings as light source and to the means (reflectors, energy-saving light bulbs etc.) available for optimization of the energy utilization.

Machines and engines

The last sector to be underlined her is machines and engines for industrial processes etc. Among the upper 50 commodity groups are the following:

84005 Engines with compression ignition (i.e. diesel motors)
84285 Machines for textile processing
84087 Casting machines
84105 Vending machines

The reason for the underlining of these commodity groups is the common characteristics that even though the quantity of the industrial product itself is quite modest, the commodity groups are nevertheless high-ranked as regards both loss of resources and energy consumption. In any case these are industrial products of a considerable consumption of working means and energy during use.

Motors are high-ranked on the list partly because of considerable energy consumption, partly because of a large consumption of lubricating oil for the continuous maintenance. The result shows that an improvement of the efficiency of the motors should generally be given high priority.

Textile processing machines include machines for washing, bleaching, dyeing, rolling up, cramping, starching, impregnation and other finishing treatment of textiles. Except machines for rolling up and cramping, these machines all have large consumption of water and various chemical substances. The weighted composition of this commodity group is estimated to 99% chemical substances and 1% other, which in this connection covers the iron etc. of which the machines are made. In practice the result places focus on the fact that textile production is an area with a large consumption of chemicals, water and energy.

The result for casting machines shows correspondingly that casting processes require a very large consumption of moulding sand and energy, whereas vending machines (with primarily beverages) are high-ranked because of a large consumption of disposable drinking cups and the energy consumption for heating/cooling of beverages.

The remaining commodity groups

Among the first mentioned 50 commodity groups it is relatively easy to identify the most important sectors. The picture is however more dim concerning the commodity groups further down the list. Actually products from different sectors are listed, depending on quantities and characteristics of each commodity group. As already registered for the 50 upper commodity groups the characteristics placing a commodity group high on the list will be as follows:

• An active consumption of energy during use
  
• Use of working means during use
  
• The product is sold in large quantities and consists especially of non-renewable materials.

It should be noted however that also products predominantly consisting of renewable materials (e.g. foodstuffs) can be high-ranked on the list. When this is the case, it is mainly due to packaging of non-renewable materials (e.g. plastic materials and metal), and that the product is sold in so huge quantities that even a modest packaging share of a few percentage of the total weight of the product results in considerable amounts of non-renewable resources. As it appears from the following section the calculated result of the loss of resources of such products must however be considered very uncertain.

2.2 Uncertainties of results

The ranking of commodities is subject to uncertainty, because all the data applied for the estimates of loss of resources and energy consumption are to some extent uncertain. In this section an assessment of the uncertainties and their importance to the ranking is made.

Initially it should be stressed that all assessments of uncertainties made here are based on an estimate, as the true and real data are not available.

The uncertainty calculation made in the following is based on the assumption that for almost all types of data (e.g. volume of production, correction factor, loss of resources of materials) the predominant part of the data quantity was determined with a relatively modest uncertainty, whereas a minor part of the data quantity had a high degree of uncertainty, sometimes even considerably high. As an example it can be mentioned that it is assessed here that the uncertainty of the ASC values (energy consumption for extraction and manufacture of materials) is dividable as follows:

• Approx. 75% of all ASC values were determined with an uncertainty of ±20%
  
• Approx. 20% of all ASC values were determined with an uncertainty of ±100%
  
• Approx. 5% of all ASC values were determined with an uncertainty of -100% to +500%.

The above division expresses that for most materials (roughly estimated 75%) many studies for determination of ASC values have already been carried out, and even though these data are old, and it was necessary to project these, the uncertainty can generally be considered limited. The uncertainty degree is highest at the data estimated by enthalpy calculations, or estimated by analogy to other data, or covers material groups in reality consisting of many different materials with widely different ASC values. Additionally there are the uncertainties based on the fact that the material list lacks defined materials covering the materials of which the industrial product actually consists. Here it was chosen to grade these uncertainties by assessing that for 20% of the materials the value will be very uncertain (±100%), whereas the remaining 5% of the materials is quite wrong, which is here expressed by an uncertainty interval of -100% to +500%, as the ASC value cannot become negative.

Irrespective of the precise reasons for uncertainty of the individual ASC values, it is difficult to make an absolute and positive estimate of the uncertainty of the individual value. For ASC values based on studies in literature it is as mentioned assessed that the uncertainty generally is limited. This does not mean however the uncertainty of all data of this type is limited. It can be expected that the majority of such values do not deviate significantly from the truth (i.e. a low uncertainty), whereas a minority will deviate much (i.e. high uncertainty). The situation is the contrary for data based on enthalpy calculations, conclusion by analogy etc. Here the majority of data must be expected to deviate much from the truth (i.e. high uncertainty), whereas a minority will deviate a little (i.e. low uncertainty).

This means that the only quite safe way to evaluate uncertainties is for each ASC value to evaluate and tabulate a statistical distributional function describing the uncertainty of precisely this value and thereafter find a method for assessing the resulting uncertainties. This procedure would involve a workload of the same size as the one already invested in this project.

An alternative might be to carry out sensitivity calculations on the results by changing selected values. Because of the many different data included in this project, such sensitivity calculations might seem of accidental character (what data should be changed?) or alternatively result in a calculation practice of an enormous scope with results that would actually be difficult to interpret.

In this project it was chosen to consider all ASC values a group of data, about which there are some uncertainties describable through a statistical distributional function. The assessments of uncertainties given above are thus interpreted as follows:

• It is assumed that there is a 75% probability that the ASC value in each individual case is correct within an uncertainty of 20%
  
• It is assumed that there is a 20% probability that the ASF value in each individual case is correct within an uncertainty of 100%
  
• It is assumed that there is a 5% probability that the ASC value in each individual case is correct within an uncertainty of -100% to -500%.

By studying the other data included in the calculations in the same way and carry out a computer simulation of uncertainties of a series of selected commodity groups, it is considered possible to achieve a realistic impression of the average uncertainties of the calculation results.

It is emphasized that this way of assessing the uncertainties provides the impression of the average uncertainties rather than the maximum uncertainties, as in reality an equalizing of the uncertainties within a certain data type takes place. The ASC values, based on studies from literature and of a relatively low uncertainty, are affected by the high uncertainty of the ASC values based on enthalpy values etc. and vice versa. Thus the assessment method will not intercept the worst possible cases, which is here considered acceptable, as the aim is to achieve an assessment of the general sustainability of the calculation results (when should the ranking of two commodity groups be considered identical and different respectively) and not the definitive truth of each commodity group.

For the computer simulation a special computer program "RISK", which is a superstructure of the spreadsheet program Excel, was applied. RISK has the property that a fixed value (a figure in a cell of the spreadsheet) is replaceable by a set of values, which fulfil a given statistical distributional function. In the present case each of the data included in the calculation of loss of resources and energy consumption will be replaced by a statistical distributional function. In other respects the programme functions in such a way that a considerable number of calculations of both loss of resources and energy consumption are carried out. Ateach calculation, a ransom figure, which is in accordance with the chosen statistical distributional function, will be generated for each data. After completed calculations the mean values, the frequency distribution and the standard deviations of the results were calculated.

These uncertainty calculations were based on the calculated expressions of the loss of resources and the energy consumption respectively indicated in box 1.1. For quantity data it was taken into consideration that the calculations in reality are based on the mean value of production and supply, i.e. that actually two quantity data are included in the calculations - and not just one quantity data as is shown in box 1.1. For energy consumption for extraction, manufacture and processing of  materials (E_PX) it was correspondingly taken into consideration that this energ^y consumption is composed of ASC + processing supplement.

The uncertainty of data types is basically defined as described above for the ASC values (i.e. as a step distribution). At the actual uncertainty calculations it was however chosen to replace the step distribution by a logarithmic normal distribution (lognormal). This choice was made, because a continuous distribution must be expected to reflect reality better than a step distribution. The logarithmic normal distribution is moreover characterised by its natural zero (data values cannot be negative) and by its behaviour like the normal distribution in connection with high data values.

The conversion of step distribution to lognormal distribution was done by choosing a lognormal distribution, which is - based on the standard deviation - was the best possible approximation to the step distribution. All lognormal distributions used in the calculations were identified by the standard deviation (which was here assumed determined by the data type) and the mean value (which is the figure used in the ordinary calculation). The lognormal distribution for the ASC material "m050 Aluminium" was thus unambiguously determined as lognormal (190, 40) where 190 is the estimated ASC value of the material (cf. table 1.5) and 40 is the estimated standard deviation of the ASC values generally (cf. table 2.1).

For each type of data included in the calculations table 2.1 shows partly the assumed step distribution of uncertainties and partly the lognormal distribution (identified by the standard deviation), which is assumed to correspond most accurately to the step distribution. The rationale behind assumed step distributions is described in the following:

Quantity data

According to information from Statistics Denmark /24/ quantity data for approx. 75% of all tariff numbers are available directly from Statistics Denmark, as data for production, imports and exports are reported in tonnes and not subject to confidentiality. These data are normally considered the best and thus in principle true. Empirically even those data will be uncertain because of statistical threshold values, use of incorrect tariff numbers, imprecise quantity data, inclusion of retail packaging in the net weight etc. No certain knowledge of the size of these errors is available - not with Statistics Denmark /24/ either. Here it was consequently assumed that the predominant part (approx. 90%, corresponding to approx. 65% of all tariff numbers) of these data holds a relatively modest uncertainty (5%), whereas a minor part (ca. 10%, corresponding to approx. 10% of all tariff numbers) is holding a significant uncertainty (50%).

The remaining 25% of all tariff numbers includes the numbers for which it was necessary to estimate the quantity data by recalculation on the basis of the foreign trade statistics and the numbers subject to confidentiality or for which it was

The tariff numbers, of which the quantity data were estimated (3% of all numbers) were here conservatively assumed to hold an uncertainty of 100%. It was estimated here that the uncertainty was much lower in many cases, but a few data were deliberately estimated very conservatively.

These uncertainty estimates were based on the uncertainty of the individual tariff numbers, thus disregarding an actual equalizing of the uncertainties taking place when the tariff numbers were collected in commodity groups. As this effect lacked clarity, the uncertainty of the tariff numbers was her chosen as the basis of the assessment.

Correction factor

The correction factor is uncertain because of uncertain estimates of the quantity of working means, spare parts and packaging compared to the weight of the industrial product; i.e. that at these points the uncertainty of the estimated material composition will affect the correction factor. The correction factor might also be misjudged because the quantity information includes packaging. This type of uncertainty was included in the quantity data, but not in the correction factor.

An overall estimate is that working means and spare parts have only importance to approx. 20% of the total amount of commodity groups. For the cases in which the correction factor is limited to the importance of packaging, the correction factor will normally be modest (< 1.05) and the uncertainty consequently low (< 5%). For the remaining 20% of the commodity groups the uncertainty of the correction factor will be substantial to significant. It was assumed her that for 15% of the commodity groups the uncertainty was 20%, whereas it was estimated at 50% for the remaining 5%.

Contents of material

This concerns the contents of the individual material in the commodity group, i.e. the material composition. These contents are stated as a percentage value, which can be between 0 and 100. From the initiation of this project it was estimated that this percentage value was to be determined with an absolute uncertainty of 5%. This means that for a material, the contents of which is stated as 75%, the true value will be within the interval of 70 and 80%, whereas the true value of a material, the contents of which are stated as 5%, will be within the interval of 0 to 10%. This uncertainty reflects that the contents value of the dominant materials of a commodity group is fairly accurate, whereas the value of the materials of smaller shares is very uncertain. At the calculations it was secured that the sum of all contents values (except for water as a working means) is always 100.

Loss of resources for materials

Here it was determined that for all non-recyclable materials, thus with a loss of resources of 100%, this value was established with an uncertainty of 0%. This was the case for approx. 75% of all materials of the material list (cf. table 1.5). For the other materials it is estimated that the uncertainty generally is limited, but that some misjudgements might have happened for a few commodity groups. It was consequently estimated that 15% of the total estimates of loss of resources has an uncertainty of 20%, whereas the remaining 10% has an uncertainty of 100%.

ASC

Reference is made to comments in the above text.

Energy content

It is assumed that for all materials, in which the energy content is 0 (applies to approx. 40% of all materials), this value was determined without any uncertainty. For the remaining materials it is assumed that the value because of many investigations is determined fairly precisely, but that for material groups consisting of many different materials the stated values might be considerably uncertain. Additionally, there are the situations in which the material list does not include a material corresponding precisely to the material in the commodity group. Here it was assumed that for 50% of all materials there is an uncertainty of 20%, whereas for the remaining 10% an uncertainty of 100% was assumed.

Processing supplement

For 80% of all materials no processing supplement was defined. For these materials it was assumed that the supplement was determined with the uncertainty of 0 (in these cases the uncertainty was in principle included in the ASC value). For materials, for which a processing supplement had been defined, it was estimated that the uncertainty of the size of this supplement is generally high. Here it was assumed that the processing supplement for 10% of all materials was determined with an uncertainty of 50%, whereas for the remaining 10% the uncertainty was 100%.

Energy consumption during the life cycle

Uncertainties of the estimates of the energy consumption during the life cycle are related to conditions as e.g.:

• Are the industrial products used as the basis for the calculations a true average of all the products in the commodity group?
  
• Are the assumptions of the average energy consumption per operation/use hour and the number of operation/use hours correct?

It is assessed that the estimates made are seldom completely correct, but seldom quite incorrect either. It cannot be excluded however that a few incidents of substantial misjudgements have taken place. Consequently it was assumed that for 80% of the estimates the uncertainty was 20%, for 15% of the estimates 50%, and for the remaining 5% the uncertainty was 100%.

‘Table 2.1‘

Average weight of products in the commodity group

Estimates of the average weight of products in the commodity group are uncertain related to whether the products in question, on which the estimate is based, are a true average of all the products in the commodity group. This estimate is however in many cases based on information from the statistics (total number/total weight), which is assessed to hold a relatively low uncertainty. It was therefore assumed that80% of all estimates hold a relatively low uncertainty (10%), whereas the remaining 20% has an uncertainty of 50%.

Share of waste that is combusted

The precondition of the calculations was that on average 75% of all combustible waste in Denmark is taken to solid waste incineration plants. Seen in relation to the individual commodity groups this precondition must be considered uncertain. Even though the majority of the loss of resources in all probability will end up in solid waste incineration plants, it is far from certain that the share is precisely 75%. Furthermore, of the individual commodity groups (e.g. foodstuffs, feedstuff etc.) the predominant part of the loss of resources will be utilized in another way - and only to a very limited extent end up in solid waste incineration plants. It was consequently assumed that in 80% of all cases the precondition held an uncertainty of 20%, whereas in the remaining cases the uncertainty was 100%.

Energy efficiency of solid waste incineration plants

At the calculations an energy efficiency of 80% was assumed. This assumption will probably be almost correct in most cases, as the capacity of each incineration plant is adapted to the waste available, and by and large all incineration plants must expect that the waste-generated heating cannot be utilised in full during the summer period. The assumption is however also used for commodity groups such as pit coal, for which the energy efficiency is typically considerably lower. Here it is therefore considered correct to assess that in 80% of all cases the assumption holds an uncertainty of 20%, whereas the remaining cases hold an uncertainty of 50%.

Results

The results of the uncertainty calculation appear from table 2.2. Besides the calculated mean values of the loss of resources and the energy consumption the table shows also the standard deviation of the calculation results and the interval, within which 90% of all the results is.

Energy consumption

As it appears from the results of the energy consumption, the interval - within which 90% of the results are - is typically within the range of -50 to +76% of the mean value. This result is to be interpreted in such a way that all the results of energy consumption stated in appendix 1 should be considered an interval determined by the result -50% and +76% respectively. Intervals, which do not overlap each other, represent in all probability energy consumption values that are in reality different. Contrary to that, intervals that to a greater or smaller extent overlap each other represent energy consumption values, which are almost likely to be identical.

‘Tabel 2.2‘

On the basis of the ranking result of the energy consumption in appendix 1 it can for example be estimated

• that the commodity group, which on the basis of its energy consumption was ranked as no. 1, in all probability should not be ranked as no. 3 or lower
  
• that the commodity group, which on the basis of its energy consumption was ranked as no. 10, in all probability should not be ranked higher than no. 6 or lower than no. 39
  
• that the commodity group, which on the basis of its energy consumption was ranked as no. 50, in all probability should not be ranked higher than no. 19 or lower than no. 102
  
• that the commodity group, which on the basis of its energy consumption was ranked as no. 100, in all probability should not be ranked higher than no. 47 or lower than no. 200
  
• that the commodity group, which on the basis of its energy consumption was ranked as no. 300, in all probability should not be ranked higher than no. 145 or lower than no. 473
  
• that the commodity group, which on the basis of its energy consumption was ranked as no. 500, in all probability should not be ranked higher than no. 315 or lower than no. 705.
  

Loss of resources

For loss of resources the results were characterized by large deviations. It is clear however that the commodity groups, the results of which hold a high uncertainty, are all characterised by being composed of renewable materials, which are recreated concurrently with their use.

The loss of resources, which is calculated, forms therefore only the modest part of the materials of the commodity group that is non-renewable, that is to say packaging, printing ink and the like.

It should be no matter for surprise that the uncertainty of the loss of resources of such commodity groups is generally characterised by the fact that the dominant materials were determined with a low uncertainty, whereas the marginal materials were decided with high uncertainty. This uncertainty was incorporated in the assessment method applied in this project (cf. section 1.4 Threshold values).

For commodity groups, consisting predominantly of renewable materials it was concluded that the uncertainty of the loss of resources can be so significant that establishing general criteria for it makes no sense. In practice the result must be assessed in detail in each individual case.

For commodity groups, which have some share of non-renewable materials, it was assessed meaningful to talk of a typical uncertainty. Parallel to the assessments of energy consumption it was - based on the results in table 2.2 - assessed that the interval - within which 90% of the results are - is typically of the size of -42 to +61% of the mean value, meaning that all results of loss of resources stated in appendix 1 should be considered an interval determined by the result -42% and +61% respectively. With this as a starting point and based on the ranking results of loss of resources in appendix 1 the following assessments can be made:

• that the commodity group, which on the basis of its loss of resources was ranked as no. 1, in all probability should not be ranked as no. 5 or lower
  
• that the commodity group, which on the basis of its loss of resources, was ranked as no. 10, in all probability should not be ranked higher than no. 6 or lower than no. 16
  
• that the commodity group, which on the basis of its loss of resources was ranked as no. 50, in all probability should not be ranked higher than no. 27 or lower than no. 109
  
• that the commodity group, which on the basis of its loss of resources was ranked as no. 100, in all probability should not be ranked higher than no. 50 or lower than no. 200
  
• that the commodity group, which on the basis of its loss of resources was ranked as no. 300, in all probability should not be ranked higher than no. 191 or lower than no. 443
  
• that the commodity group, which on the basis of its loss of resources was ranked as no. 500, in all probability should not be ranked higher than no. 355 or lower than no. 617.

These uncertainty considerations show that even though the calculation results hold uncertainty and thus correspondingly also the ranking of the different commodity groups in relation to each other, the stated ranking will nevertheless could be used as a clear indication of the attention that should be given to the various commodity groups. Except for the commodity groups that predominantly consist of renewable materials, and in connection with which the loss of resources must be estimated in detail in each individual case, it is beyond doubt that the commodity groups with high ranking on the list are the groups resulting in the most significant loss of resources and energy consumption.

2.3 Overall assessment

Ranking

The ranking of industrial products carried out in this project shows that the properties of industrial products that will typically indicate that products have a large loss of resources and/or energy consumption and thus have a high ranking, are the following:

• An active energy consumption during use
  
• A large consumption of working means during use
  
• The product is sold in large quantities and has substantial contents of non-renewable materials.

It is hardly surprising that especially the industrial products appearing at the top of the ranking list are products and goods related to the energy sector, transport sector, agriculture and building and civil sectors.

Especially the sectors energy, agriculture and building/civil are characterised by the fact that substantial quantities of quite few articles are consumed/manufactured. Contrary to that, means of transport, such as ships, trains and cars, are characterised by a very large consumption of energy as well as working means (lubricating oil, tyres etc.) during use. For comparison the production and consumption within other sectors are distributed on many different articles, meaning that individually they do not carry great weight in the total accounts.

There are however also a series of consumer goods competing for high ranking on the list. These are typically products requiring energy or working means during use, such as refrigerators and freezers, washing machines, television and lighting accessories - or products sold in very large quantities, such as furniture, beer, papers and magazines.

A series of commodity group topping the ranking list must incidentally be considered semi-manufactures rather than finished goods. This applies to e.g. goods like pit coal, oil, natural gas, diesel motors, feedstuffs, cement and packing articles. This does not mean however that they are uninteresting. An example is that the efficiency of engines in reality has decisive importance for the energy consumption of means of transport.

Especially interesting are commodity groups like machines for textile processing, vending machines and casting machines, which are high-ranking because of the large consumption of working means (chemicals, disposable drinking cups, moulding sand) besides energy consumption throughout the entire life cycle.

It should be stressed that the ranking made here does not consider the utility value of the industrial products in the community or the contents of environmentally harmful substances etc. Thus it does in no way mean that a product is especially "poor or environmentally harmful", if it is at the top of the list.

That a product is ranked at the top of the list means however in actual fact that a very large loss of resources and/or energy consumption are connected to it. It might therefore be in the interest of the community to assess possible improvements/changes/consumption reductions etc. that should be initiated for this specific product.

The interest of the community in initiating improvements is not necessarily limited to the products ranked at the top. It might be relevant to focus on products ranked further down the list, e.g. motivated by the contents of environmentally harmful substances, pollution during the phase of production etc.

Method

It is assessed that the method for ranking of industrial products applied in this project has proved useful for the purpose. The main basis for this assessment is that the result achieved (the ranking) must be considered logical and well-founded.

When this has been said, it must be recognized though that the method as well as the data in many ways could and should be improved. Neither the commodity group division nor the collected data of commodity groups and materials can be considered optimal and impeccable. The calculation of the energy quantity that can be reclaimed from the loss of resources is not optimal either.

Uncertainties

This means as assessed in section 2.2 that all calculation results including the ranking are naturally uncertain. These uncertainties imply that it makes no sense to assert that the commodity group ranked as no. 30 is more environmentally harmful than the commodity group ranked as no. 35, or to emphasize no 250 in preference to no. 300. Contrary to that, it makes sense to consider the commodity groups ranked as no. 1 to approx. 50 as having more environmental impact than the commodity groups ranked as no. 100 to 200 etc. As it appears, the focus should be on the general lines.

Besides the uncertainties pointed out in section 2.2, the uncertainty related to the division of industrial products into commodity groups should also be stressed. The larger quantities a commodity group includes, the higher it will be ranked. Splitting up a commodity group into more groups is consequently an efficient way of reducing the importance of certain industrial products in a ranking system like this. In this project it was deliberately attempted to minimise the amount of commodity groups, thus gathering various industrial products in the same group to the extent considered at all appropriate. It is obvious that the division can always be discussed, and that some of the choices made after careful consideration will turn out to be wrong.

Accumulation of knowledge

It is assessed that the knowledge of industrial products and materials achieved during this project - all uncertainties considered - has enabled an identification of the types of industrial products to which the focus should be directed in the future environmental efforts, as well as it will be available for utilisation in other connections as described in the following section. During this project an actual accumulation of knowledge within the field of products and materials took place.

It should be emphasized that the knowledge presented in this main report including appendices 1a and 1b could be considered the top of the iceberg, when compared to the knowledge available in the database and the other appendices.

3 The established data base

The data collected and utilised in this project were organised in a data base placed in the computer system of the Danish Environmental Protection Agency. It has not been clarified yet how these data can become available to the public. The structure and the possibilities of application, extension and improvement are described briefly in the following.

3.1 The structure of the data base

The data base was established as a so-called relational data base, which means that it is possible to combine the individual data in different ways and to extend the data base by new data, dependent of the actual needs.

Data as well as calculation results are organised in a series of data base tables. At the completion of this project the data base includes the following tables:

• Positionsnummer (TariffNumber)
  
• Vareposition (CommodityTariff)
  
• Varegruppe (CommodityGroup)
  
• Miljøstoffer (EnvironmentSubstances)
  
• KodelisteMilstof (CodeListEnvSubst)
  
• Sammensat (Composed)
  
• Materiale (Material)
  
• Simuleringsoplysninger (SimulationData)
  
• DetaljeretResultat (DetailedResult)
  
• PrioriteretResultat (RankedResult)
  

In the following the contents of these data base tables are briefly described.

Positionsnummer (TariffNumber)

This table includes all the tariff numbers in Statistics Denmark‘s supply statistics (version May 1993 - cf. appendix 3). These tariff numbers are considered the allowed tariff numbers of the system. In the table it is stated whether a tariff number is related/not related to a commodity group. The table is used to control that no tariff numbers are "forgotten" in case of adjustment of the commodity group division.

Vareposition (CommodityTariff)

This table states the tariff numbers related to the commodity group (cf. appendix 4). One tariff number can only be related to one commodity group. In this way the table defines an unambiguous connection between Statistics Denmark‘s supply statistics and the division in commodity groups made in this project.

Varegruppe (CommodityGroup)

The table called "CommodityGroup" contains one record for each commodity group. This record contains the following information (cf. appendix 5):

• Number of the commodity group
  
• Name of the commodity group
  
• Total Danish production of the commodity group (tonnes/year)
  
• Total Danish consumption/supply (production + imports - exports) of the commodity group
  
• Energy consumption during the use phase/throughout the life cycle of an average product of the commodity group
  
• Weight of an average product of the commodity group (tonnes - only stated for the products with an energy consumption during their use phase)
  
• Correction factor
  
• Environmentally harmful substances indicated by their chemical abbreviations or the like (this is a text field making it possible to list the environmentally harmful substances of the commodity group in the result list - cf. appendix 1).

It should be noted that the information of the weight of an average product is used for automatic calculation of the number of products in the commodity group (on the basis of information of production and consumption/supply for the commodity group) and thus to calculate the total energy consumption during use for the commodity group.

Miljøstoffer (EnvironmentSubstances)

This table indicates the environmentally harmful substances of the commodity group registered. Each substance is defined by a 4-figure code (the "standat" code -see below). This table is used to search for specific commodity groups containing specific environmentally harmful substances. At this time the table only include selected applications of cadmium, lead, copper, nickel and phthalates (cf. section 1.6).

KodelisteMilstof (CodeListEnvSubst)

This table includes an extract of the Danish EPA‘s list of environmentally harmful substances - the so-called "standat" list. This list contains all the substances that the EPA normally focuses on in various connections. Each substance is defined by a 4-figure code and the name of the substance. The table only includes code and name of the substances (cadmium, lead, nickel, copper and phthalates) that are so far identified as included in commodity groups.

Sammensat (Composed)

This table states the materials assessed included in the commodity group. The following is stated for each material in each commodity group (cf. appendix 5):

• Contents (in %)
  
• Loss of resources (in %)
  
• Processing supplement (is processing supplement included for the material in this group? - yes/no)

It should be noted that the field "loss of resources" is only filled in, if the loss of resources of the material in question in the commodity group in question is considered different (substantially) from the average loss of resources stated for each material in the table "Material" (see below). If a figure of loss of resources has been entered in the table "Composed", the figure stated in the table "Material" is automatically used.

Materiale (Material)

This table includes information of all registered materials. For each material a record with the following information (cf. appendix 6) has been established:

• Material code (cf. table 1.5 and appendix 6)
  
• Material name (cf. table 1.5 and appendix 6)
  
• Loss of resources (in % - cf. table 1.5)
  
• Whether the material is considered renewable (yes/no - cf. table 1.5)
  
• Whether the material is recreated concurrently with its use (yes/no - cf. table 1.5 - only relevant to renewable materials)
  
• ASC value (GJ/tonne - cf. table 1.5)
  
• Whether a processing supplement has been defined (yes/no)
  
• Processing supplement (GJ/tonne - cf. table 1.5)
  
• Energy content (GJ/tonne - cf. table 1.5)
  
• Simulation number (a figure between 0 and 99)

It should be noted that it is possible to change all data of a given material (except material code and name) without spoiling the original data. For the individual material this is done by defining a special record with a simulation number different from zero (see below). This facility is built into the data base to provide the opportunity of making sensitivity calculations and to enable studies of the consequences of possible recycling initiatives etc.

Simuleringsoplysninger (SimulationData)

In this table a series of basic preconditions of each calculation is stated. The preconditions are the following:

• Quantity basis (it is stated whether the calculations are to be built on production data, supply data or mean value of production and supply
  
• Waste quantity to be combusted (the share of the waste assessed to be combusted is stated - this is important in connection with utilisation of the energy content of the material quantity ending up as loss of resources)
  
• Energy efficiency of solid waste incineration plants (it is stated on which the efficiency calculations are to be based)
  
• Simulation number (the simulation number - cf. material data - on which the calculations are to be based is stated. If no number is stated, the calculations are based on the original data. If a simulation number different from 0 is defined, the calculations are based on the material records holding this simulation number (see above). For the materials, for which there is no record with the current simulation number, the program will automatically use the original data).

DetaljeretResultat (DetailedResult)

This table is a result table showing the detailed calculation of loss of resources and energy consumption of all commodity groups. The information provided by this table corresponds to the information given in appendix 2.

PrioriteretResultat (RankedResult)

This table is a result table showing the ranking of commodity groups. The information provided by this table corresponds to the information provided in appendices 1a and 1b. It is possible to choose prints of the commodity groups based on ranking of loss of resources, energy consumption or the average position in relation to loss of resources and energy consumption (as in appendices 1a and 1b).

The data base - as it looked at the completion of this project - can be considered partly a series of table with various original data (applies to all tables except Simuleringsoplysninger (SimulationData), DetaljeretResultat (DetailedResult) and PrioriteretResultat (RankedResult)), and partly a superstructure designed for making the calculations needed in connection with this project (applies to the tables Simuleringsoplysninger (SimulationData), DetaljeretResultat (DetailedResult) and PrioriteretResultat (RankedResult)).

Additionally, the data base consists of all the documentation files, which explain the basis for the various commodity group data and material data (cf. appendices 5 and 6). These documentation files were included in the data base as WordPerfect documents and can be called up by entering the relevant commodity group number and material code respectively.

For further information of the structure of the data bases it is referred to the system description (cf. /4/) and the user‘s guide of the data base (cf. 15/).

3.2 Possibilities of application

As it appears from the preceding section the data base was designed to carry out the calculations needed in connection with this project, apart from which it was designed to make various simulations of changed calculation preconditions. As stated it is possible to adjust the following:

• Material data (loss of resources, renewability, recreation of the resource concurrently with its use, ASC value, processing supplement and energy content
  
• Share of waste for incineration plants
  
• Energy efficiency of incineration plants.

Additionally the data base provides the possibility of searching for the following:

• Commodity groups, which include environmentally harmful substances (only the environmentally harmful substances included at the time - i.e. at present only cadmium, lead, nickel, copper and phthalates).
  
• Commodity groups, which include a specific material, the contents percentage and the total quantity calculated on the basis of production as well as supply for the group.

The data base is thus considered to be useful in connection with e.g. the following types of environmental investigations/assessments:

• Mass flow analyses of selected materials
  By utilising the possibility of searching for selected materials a good overview of the types of industrial products containing the material in question and the quantity of the contents is promptly obtainable. As the same material quantity might be included in various commodity groups, the quantity information from different commodity groups cannot be immediately summarised.
  
• Eco-label assessments/promotion of environmentally more friendly industrial products The information in the data base and the calculation results of loss of resources and energy consumption provides immediately a good impression of the parameters to be focused on in connection with ecolabel assessments of selected industrial products and development of less polluting industrial products.
  
• Recycling initiatives
  On the basis of the information in the data base and the calculation results it is possible to obtain a prompt overview of the materials, for which there might be a need for recycling initiatives, as well as an overview of the consequences of specific objectives measured as quantities of the material ending up as loss of resources.

The design of the data base ensures that it can relatively easily be updated and extended. This of course provides the possibility of further applications. For example, a question of how to identify the industrial products to take measure against in order to reduce the quantity of slag from solid waste incineration plants, can be answered by the following:

• Defining a new field "A" for each material, which states the slag/ash share of the material, i.e. the part of the material that can be rediscovered as slag/ash
  
• Defining a field "B", which indicates to what extent the loss of resources is taken to the incineration plant
  
• Programming of a supplementary calculation, in which the calculated loss of resources for each material in the commodity group is multiplied by "A" and "B", added up and finally ranked on the basis of this sum.

These application possibilities are to be considered examples. No attempt was made to systematically point out all conceivable application possibilities. It should be noted that the material data collected as part of this project are assessed to be useful in many relations, e.g. in connection with assessments of cleaner technology for selected industrial products.

3.3 Possibilities of improvements/extension of the data base

The data base, as it appears at the completion of this project, should be considered the foundation stone of a data base for industrial products and materials rather than a complete data base. The fact that there is a continuous development of the composition of industrial products as well as the energy consumption for manufacture of the same mean that at intervals there will be a natural need for an update of the data of the data base, if it is to preserve its value on the long view.

Furthermore, the data base - as it appears today and with the data it includes - should be considered "the best obtainable" within the scope of this project. This means that in many ways it is possible to improve the data base and the data included.

In other connections (including projects financed by the National Council for Recycling and Less Polluting Technology) data that are more precise than the data of the data base today will no doubt be collected and accumulated. It would be natural to attempt securing that such data are entered into the data base to replace or supplement the existing data.

Also, an adjustment of the commodity group division could be imagined. It should be noted however that if the commodity group division is adjusted, an adjustment of the quantity data would also be needed (presupposes assistance from Statistics Denmark).

Other possible improvements/extensions of the data base are as follows:

• Refining of the material list
  In a series of cases (e.g. sanitary ware versus service china) it should be distinguished more detailed between materials than is the case now. Furthermore, the material list could advantageously be extended by e.g. low-value fuels and more secondary materials, especially as concerns iron, steel and metals.
  
• Refining of processing supplement
  For many materials it would be obvious to define more than one level of processing supplement. In the data base it is quite simple to operate with several levels of processing supplement, as the various levels are defined under material data, whereas in the commodity group data (the table "composed") under processing supplement the real level is stated (e.g. "1", "2" or "3") instead of a simple "yes" like now.
  
• More information of environmentally harmful substances
  Today the data base includes only information of the occurrence of a few environmentally harmful substances in industrial products. It would be natural to include all substances stated in the Standat list of the Danish EPA. On the long view it could be considered whether the Standat list meets the demand, or whether more substances should be included in this list.
  
• Recovery of the energy in the loss of resources
  The calculation of the energy in the loss of resources, which is recoverable is for some commodity groups rather imprecise, as this calculation is based on an assessment of the quantity of the loss of resources that is on average taken to solid waste incineration plants and the energy efficiency of the incineration plants. For certain commodity groups (e.g. foodstuffs) the loss of resources will never - or only partly - end up in incineration plants. For other commodity groups (e.g. pit coal) the loss of resources will be incinerated all right, but the energy utilisation will be different than in an incineration plant.

If this calculation is wanted more precise, it would be necessary to definetransportation to incineration plants and energy efficiency as parameters for both materials and commodity groups.

• Value of non-renewable resources
  As mentioned in section 1.1.2 there is in the calculation model no possibility of allowing for differences in the value of non-renewable resources. At the calculations the loss of one tonne of sand or gravel is weighted as high as the loss of a tonne of copper. It would of course be relevant to develop methods and knowledge to include these differences in the data base and the calculations that are made.

Finally it is emphasized that the proposals for improvements stated here are exclusively based on considerations made in connection with this project. During the use of this data base a series of other points - by which the data base can be improved or extended profitably - will probably be identified.

References

/1/ Handlingsplan for renere teknologi, 1993-1997. Miljøministeriet, København, juni 1992 (Action plan for cleaner technology, 1993-1997. Ministry of the Environment, Copenhagen, June 1992).

/2/ Hansen, Erik et al: Industriprodukters miljøbelastning. Arbejdsrapport nr. 21/1993. Miljøstyrelsen, København 1993 (Environmental impact of industrial products. working report no. 21/1993. Danish EPA, Copenhagen 1993).

/3/ Brugstariffen. Bind 1-4. Told- og Skattestyrelsen, Skatteministeriet, januar 1993 (Consumption tariff. Vol. 1-4. Central Customs and Tax Administration, January 1993).

/4/ Miljøprioritering af industriprodukter - Systembeskrivelse for EDB-system (RDB). COWIconsult (assisteret af Datasupport). 1993 (Environmental ranking of industrial products - System description of computer system (RDB). COWIconsult (assisted by Datasupport), 1993).

/5/ Miljøprioritering af industriprodukter - Brugerhåndbog for EDB-system (RDB). COWIconsult (assisteret af Datasupport). 1993 (Environmental ranking of industrial products - User‘s manual for computer system (RDB). COWIconsult (assisted by Datasupport), 1993.

/6/ Personlig oplysning: J. Overgaard, Det Danske Stålvalseværk, september 1993 (personal information: J. Overgaard, Danish Steel Rolling Mill, September 1993) .

/7/ Personlig oplysning: Torben Schrøder, Lemvigh-Müller & Munck A/S, september 1993 (personal information: Torben Schrøder, Lemvigh-Müller & Munck A/S, September 1993).

/8/ Personlig oplysning: Allan Hansen og Hedvig Mehlsen, Gränges Danmark A/S, september 1993 (personal information: Allan Hansen and Hedvig Mehlsen, Gränges Danmark A/S, September 1993).

/9/ Personlig oplysning: Elvin Rasmussen, Gotthard Aluminium, juli 1993 (personal information: Elvin Rasmussen, Gotthard Aluminium, July 1993).

/10/ Genanvendelse af aluminium i Frankrig. Pechiney-Rhenalu, Paris, Frankrig 1991 (recycling of aluminium in France. Pechiney-Rhenalu, Paris, France 1991).

/11/ Personlig oplysning: Klaus Nielsen og Jens Peter Jensen, SAPA, Grenå, juli-august 1993 (personal information: Klaus Nielsen and Jens Peter Jensen, SAPA, DK-Grenaa, July-August 1993).

/12/ Personlig oplysning: Martin Koch Jensen, NKT A/S, juni 1993 (personal information: Martin Koch Jensen, NKT A/S, June 1993).

/13/ Personlig oplysning: Gorm Jørgensen, Boliden Bergsøe A/S, september 1993 (personal information: Gorm Jørgensen, Boliden Bergsøe A/S, September 1993). /14/ Personlig oplysning: Johnny Sønnichsen, H.I.Hansen A/S, september 1993 (personal information: Johnny Sønnichsen, H.I.Hansen A/S, September 1993).

/15/ Personlig oplysning: Jørgen Fought, Holmegårds Glasværk, juli 1993 (Personal information: Jørgen Fought, Holmegaards Glassworks, July 1993).

/16/ Kilde, Niels A.: Energikoefficientændringer, årligt 1972-1989. Risø, Roskilde, august 1993 (Kilde, Niels A.: Energy coefficient changes, annually 1972-1989. Risø, DK-Roskilde, August 1993).

/17/ Tillman, Anne-Marie et al: Miljön och förpackningarna - Livscyklusanalyser för förpackningsmaterial - beräkning av miljöbelastning. Statens offentlige utredninger 1991:77, Miljödepartementet. Almänna Förlaget, Stockholm, Sverige 1991 (Tillman, Anne-Marie et al: The environment and packagings - life cycle analyses of packaging materials - calculation of environmental impact. Public explanations 1991:77, Swedish EPA, the publishing firm of Almänna, Stockholm, Sweden, 1991).

/18/ Habersatter, K.: Oekobilanz von packstoffen stand 1990. Schriftenreihe Umwelt nr.132. Bundesamt für Umwelt, Wald und Landschaft (BUWAL), Bern, Schweiz 1991 (Habersatter, K.: Ecological balance of packing materials, level of 1990. Book series: Environment no. 132. Federal departement for environment, forrest and landscape (BUWAL), Bern, Schwitzerland, 1991.

/19/ Transporthandlingsplan for miljø og udvikling. DSB, København 1990 (Transportation action plan for environment and development. State Railways, Copenhagen 1990).

/20/ Thygesen, Niels et al: Risikoscreening ved nyttiggørelse og deponering af slagger. Miljøprojekt nr. 203. Miljøstyrelsen, København 1992 (Thygesen, Niels et al: Risk screening at utilisation and deposit of slag. Environmental project no. 203. Danish EPA, Copenhagen 1992).

/21/ Kjølholt, Jesper et al: Miljøbelastende stoffer i restprodukter og emissioner fra affaldsforbrændingsanlæg. COWIconsult for Miljøstyrelsen som led i Rammeprogrammet for begrænsning af miljøbelastende stoffer i affald, restprodukter og genanvendelige materialer. (Udkast af september 1993).

Lyngby 1993 (Kjølholt, Jesper et al: Environmentally harmful substances in residues and emissions from waste incineration plants. COWIconsult for the Danish EPA as part of the programme for limitation of environmentally harmful substances in waste, residues and recyclable materials. (Draft of September 1993). DK-Lyngby, 1993).

/22/ Risk Reduction Monograph no.1: Lead - Background and National Experience with reducing Risk. OECD/GD (93) 67. Environment Directorate, OECD, Paris, France 1993.

/23/ Personlig oplysning: Lotte Wammen Rahbek, Miljøstyrelsen, København, juli 1993 (Personal information: Lotte Wammen Rahbek, Danish EPA, Copenhagen, July 1993).

/24/ Personlig oplysning: Jørgen Morsø Jørgensen, Danmarks Statistik, København oktober 1993 (Personal information: Jørgen Morsø Jørgensen, Statistics Denmark, Copenhagen, October 1993).

Appendix 1a Ranking of industrial products as to energy and resources. Based on mean value of production and supply quantities

Introduction

In this appendix the commodity groups are listed according to the average ranking in relation to loss of resources and energy consumption. The calculation of loss of resources and energy consumption is based on the mean value of production and supply quantities, cf. section 1.3 (page 29) in the main report.

The table includes all 966 commodity groups.

Explanation of the table:

In the table the following information is provided:

First column:

The number and title of the commodity group

Second columm

The environmentally harmful substances contained in the products of the commodity group (cf. section 1.6). The substances are stated as the following abbreviations: Cu (copper), Pb (lead), Cd (cadmium), Ni (nickel), Pht (phthalates).

Third column:

Uncorrected commodity quantities in tonnes, i.e. quantities have not been multiplied by correction factor. The quantities stated represent the mean value of the production and supply quantities of each commodity group.

Fourth column:

Calculated loss of resources in tonnes

Ranking according to loss of resources exclusively.

Fifth column:

Calculated energy consumption in GJ (Gigajoule) Ranking according to energy consumption exclusively.

Sixth column:

Final ranking calculated on the basis of the sum of ranking according to loss of resources and ranking according to energy consumption.

It should be noted that more than one commodity group can have the same ranking. The detailed calculations of each commodity group are shown in Appendix 2. For further information of each commodity group, see Appendices 4 and 5.

It is also noted, that the ranking presented in this translation of the original report deviates slightly from the original ranking. In fact the final ranking for a number of commodity groups differs by 1 position from the original ranking. This difference comes from that the list is based on a recalculation in which the material composition of commodity group 85062 "insulated wires and cables" has been changed. The final ranking (33) for group 85062 has, however, remained unchanged.

Appendix 1a



Appendix 1a


Appendix 1a


Appendix 1a

Appendix 1b Ranking of industrial products as to energy and resources. Based on mean value of production and supply quantities

Introduction

In this appendix the commodity groups are listed according to the average ranking in relation to loss of resources and energy consumption.

The calculation of loss of resources and energy consumption is based on supply quantities, cf. section 1.3 (page 29) in the main report.

The table includes the approx. 200 highest ranking commodity groups.

Explanation of the table:

In the table the following information is provided:

First column:

The number and title of the commodity group

Second columm

The environmentally harmful substances contained in the products of the commodity group (cf. section 1.6). The substances are stated as the following abbreviations: Cu (copper), Pb (lead), Cd (cadmium), Ni (nickel), Pht (phthalates).

Third column:

Uncorrected commodity quantities in tonnes, i.e. quantities have not been multiplied by correction factor. The quantities stated represent the mean value of the production and supply quantities of each commodity group.

Fourth column:

Calculated loss of resources in tonnes

Ranking according to loss of resources exclusively.

Fifth column:

Calculated energy consumption in GJ (Gigajoule) Ranking according to energy consumption exclusively.

Sixth column:

Final ranking calculated on the basis of the sum of ranking according to loss of resources and ranking according to energy consumption.

It should be noted that more than one commodity group can have the same ranking. The detailed calculations of each commodity group are shown in Appendix 2. For further information of each commodity group, see Appendices 4 and 5.

Appendix 1b


Appendix 1b


Appendix 1b


Appendix 1b


Appendix 1b



Appendix 1b


Appendix 1b


Appendix 1b

Separate appendix reports:

Appendix 2: Calculation of energy consumption and loss of resources.

Appendix 2 and 4-6 has a size making publishing as separate appendix reports the preferred choice. These appendix reports are located on a number of Danish university libraries.

Appendix 3: Allocation of commodity tariff numbers to commodity groups. (Not published)

Appendix 2 and 4-6 has a size making publishing as separate appendix reports the preferred choice. These appendix reports are located on a number of Danish university libraries.

Appendix 4: Commodity groups - commodity tariff numbers in eachcommodity group.

Appendix 2 and 4-6 has a size making publishing as separate appendix reports the preferred choice. These appendix reports are located on a number of Danish university libraries.

Appendix 5: Commodity groups - material composition, energy consumption and loss of resources.

Appendix 2 and 4-6 has a size making publishing as separate appendix reports the preferred choice. These appendix reports are located on a number of Danish university libraries.

Appendix 6: Data for materials

Appendix 2 and 4-6 has a size making publishing as separate appendix reports the preferred choice. These appendix reports are located on a number of Danish university libraries.

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