Environmental Project, 904 – Consumption and the Environment in Europe – 2 Trends and emerging issues -Environmentally significant consumption clusters

In 1900, most European countries had GDP levels comparable with middle-income developing countries today. The majority of the population lived in rural areas. Even in Britain, the wealthiest and most industrialised country, food, alcohol, clothing and energy constituted over half of household expenditure.

Electric lighting was spreading rapidly through homes in European cities, replacing gas lamps. Rural homes (the majority) remained dependent on candle-light and paraffin lamps. The main fuels for heating were coal in cities and wood in rural areas, burned in stoves or open fires.

Some of the most significant environmental impacts were associated with industry (with uncontrolled pollution of watercourses, groundwater, soil and air). But solid fuel use in the home was a major source of air pollution.

The 20^th century saw massive changes in patterns of consumption in Europe. Income increased roughly seven-fold in real terms. Expenditure on food, clothing and energy fell to only about a quarter of total spending. Transport, communication and leisure emerged as major components of mass consumption. However, the transformation occurred at varying paces around Europe, as indicated by estimates of national per capita income at different stages through the 20^th century (see Figure 1.2).

Figure 1.2. GDP Per Capita through the 20^th Century in Major European Regions

At the beginning of the century, Britain, Germany, northern France, Belgium and the Netherlands formed the industrial and commercial heartland. These and the Scandinavian countries saw sustained economic development through the century, apart from the disruption of the two world wars. Mediterranean countries, along with the Republic of Ireland, saw slower and patchier economic development, and were affected badly by the 1930s depression and the Second World War. But after 1950, partly as a result of the Marshall Plan and European economic co-operation, Italy caught up economically with the north and Greece, Portugal and Spain went a long way towards doing so. Eastern Europe had a level of economic development comparable with the north until the 1930s, was deeply disrupted during the Second World War, but saw a rapid recovery until the mid-1980s. This region is now recovering from the restructuring surrounding the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Despite widely varying rates of economic development, life was transformed by the 20^th century throughout Europe. The following sections will consider a few of the forces shaping consumption and lifestyles: demography and settlement patterns, technology and markets, social structure and culture. None of these can be seen as the prime mover in the transformation process (see Figure 1.3). Changes in technology enabled rural-urban migration and population growth; urbanisation brought about social and cultural changes; cultural changes enabled accelerated technological change.

Household consumption in Europe is being shaped by a wide range of demographic, social, technological and economic trends and factors. Families and households are shrinking; the population is aging; and the amount of time spent on activities such as cooking is falling, in favour of leisure and entertainment. Increasing levels of material consumption are also closely bound up with rising personal income, falling commodity prices, and the increasing diversity of products available. Nearly all of households' market-related activities, and most of their non-market activities – whether purchasing goods and services, travelling, watching TV, or visiting a park – have influences on their physical environment (Spangenberg 2002). Their environmental burden begins with habitat disruption, resource extraction, pollution and waste during the production and supply of goods. It continues during the use phase with energy and water consumption and pollution. And it includes the impacts of disposal – sometimes long after items are discarded (e.g., CFCs from refrigerators have an impact over centuries).

In recent years, households have spent most of any increase in income on consumption, so that savings as a proportion of GDP have declined. Services form a growing share of that consumption, and as industry contributes a smaller share of production some environmental problems have been brought under control. But other environmental impacts continue to rise. “Services” include energy-intensive forms of transport such as aviation. Commercial buildings, including offices, shops and other service outlets, are the fastest growing users of electricity.

Within the last decade the structure of households' consumption expenditure has changed significantly (see Figure 2.1). In all European countries, the share spent on food and beverages has declined. This is a much longer-term trend but the recent fall has been particularly rapid. Expenditure on rent, fuel and power has increased moderately, nearly everywhere. In most countries, spending on transport and communication has remained at about 15% of household budgets since 1980, although some countries have seen a slight increase. Expenditure on recreation/education as well as hotels and restaurants has increased in importance to account for about one third of household budgets in 2000.

During the second half of the 20^th century, pollution prevention and control programmes were effective in limiting some of the direct environmental impacts of production processes. But during the 1990s, the increasing scale of household consumption was increasingly recognised by governments as part of the environmental challenge. While industrial energy use, water consumption and waste appeared to have stabilised or even to be decreasing in some European countries, household energy use, personal travel, water consumption and waste were continuing to grow. Governments have struggled to find ways to address these issues, partly because the trends result from the choices of individual consumers, which seem difficult to influence; and partly because increasing material consumption seems inseparable from economic growth, which is a crucial policy goal.

Consumers are also becoming increasingly aware of certain environmental issues, with many products labelled as environmentally friendly. These include phosphate-free washing powders, mercury-free batteries and CFC-free aerosol cans. But, in most countries, public understanding of the relative importance of different consumption changes remains poor. For example, surveys indicate limited awareness of the major contributors to climate change (e.g. Kasemir et al, 2000).

A number of studies have sought to evaluate the direct and indirect contribution of different household activities to environmental pressures. Using quite different approaches, all of them highlight three consumption areas which are responsible for the majority of direct and indirect pressures: food consumption, transport and home energy use.

The remainder of this chapter focuses on the priority areas identified by these studies.

2.2 Food

Household food consumption has major direct environmental impacts through car-based shopping trips, energy use by home refrigerators and freezers, cooking and waste disposal. However, households have an even larger indirect environmental impact through the rest of the food supply chain, mainly from agricultural production but also from food manufacture, transport of crops and products, storage, retail and food services.

Jongen and Meerdink (1998) estimate that close to half of human impact on the environment is directly or indirectly related to food production and consumption. In Germany, the food chain's share in energy and material consumption is about 20%, and agriculture accounts for 56% of Germany's total land area (Lorek et al.1999). Agriculture also makes a substantial contribution to water pollution and eutrophication. Current agricultural practices are causing soil erosion and reducing soil quality (Burdick 1997). Finally, agriculture makes a substantial contribution to European greenhouse gas emissions. In order to feed Europe's 380 million citizens, for instance, 390 million tonnes of CO₂-equivalent greenhouse gases (GHG) are emitted per year, i.e. more than one tonne per inhabitant (Eurostat, 2003f).

2.2.1 Influences on food consumption and its environmental impacts

In addition to the basic physiological requirement for nutrition, food consumption is shaped by: economic influences including the availability of foods; the availability of technology for production, transport, storage and preparation; social influences within the household, workplace and elsewhere; and cultural influences such as local traditions and fashions.

Physiological needs. The food supply in the EU15, at 3500kcal/capita/day, is a third more than is required for a healthy diet. Yet food supply and consumption continues to increase, albeit slowly, increasing both food waste and obesity levels. Appetites are stimulated by the offerings of a food industry that provides a growing range of food products, many high in fat, sugar and salt. Eating is also being made easier with a shift away from the purchase of raw ingredients towards prepared and frozen meals. Where fresh vegetables are bought, they are often ready-washed and chopped. Prepared food is increasingly available to eat out of home.

Consumers are buying foods with more packaging and more food-miles, including exotic and out of season fruits and vegetables. At the same time, shoppers are becoming better educated and more aware of health-related issues and are concerned about the nutritional content and functional value of their food. They are also increasingly seeing production methods as part of product quality.

Economic factors such as income and prices are strong influences on the dietary mix for low-income households. However as income rises and food becomes a smaller component of household expenditure, the income and price elasticities of demand for specific foodstuffs tend to fall. For wealthier households, income levels may influence where and how food is eaten (e.g. the number of trips they can afford to exclusive restaurants) rather than what is eaten.

Since food consumption is a basic necessity, low income households spend a high proportion of their budget on food. In Portugal for example, the wealthiest 20% of households spend 13.4% of their budget on food. For the poorest 20%, food makes up 36.7% of total expenditure. (Eurostat, 2001).

International comparisons show that the national level of calorie intake is only weakly correlated with average per capita income, once this rises above around US$10,000 (€8,000) per year (on a PPP basis). For incomes between $1,000 and $10,000 the variability in calorie intake is almost entirely due to differences in animal product consumption. Within the EU15 countries, the lowest national average per capita income is around $14,000 (PPP), so animal product consumption shows very little correlation with income: Greek and Portuguese citizens, with similar levels of income, consume on average about 830kcal/day and 1070 kcal/day in the form of animal products. Among the higher-income countries, Italians consume 940 kcal/day as animal products, while the French consume 1350 kcal/day (FAOSTAT, 2003).

Social trends. Once basic nutritional needs are met, the correlation of income with diet may be due to social and cultural factors. One of the most noticeable social trends is that food consumption is increasingly individualised. Individualisation is visible in the contents of the trolleys in supermarket checkouts. Each person can choose from a growing array of products, creating a highly personalised diet. This contrasts with the limited range of foods available in pre-industrial society and the strong association between food and locality, which made food part of community identity.

Individualisation is also visible in the home, where many families no longer sit down together to eat. In those that do eat together, each person may have a different meal. There are several reasons for this trend. One is shrinking family size. In larger families it made sense for one person to cook a single meal for everyone. Another contributor is the increasing number of women in the labour force. In a group of 17 OECD countries more than 75% of women between 25 and 44 are now in paid employment, compared with roughly 40-60% in 1970 (OECD, 2001). The trend has created time conflicts for many families, particularly where cooking remains primarily a female task.

More money and less time makes convenience a high priority; and technology and product innovation have come to the rescue. With the spread of convenience foods, freezers and microwave ovens, little time or skill are needed to prepare an individual meal. Technology has also enabled a change in shopping patterns. In particular, the combination of the car and the freezer has led to a decline in the frequency of shopping trips, with many households visiting a superstore once a fortnight or even once a month.

Culture. The individualisation of food consumption may be part of a broader cultural trend in which people construct and communicate their personal identities through consumption choices (e.g. Czikszentmihalyi and Rochberg-Halton, 1981). However, some social research casts doubt on the extent to which food consumption choices are truly individualised. In his classic study of the social determinants of taste, Bordieu (1984) found that consumption patterns in Parisian suburban households were closely correlated with socioeconomic class. Warde (1998) carried out a more detailed study in Britain, comparing food consumption patterns of different social groups in the 1960s and the 1990s. He found that food tastes in the 1960s were closely correlated with class. In the 1990s, significant differences remained among the consumption patterns of different social groups, identified by the type of employment of the head of household. However, the cultural characteristics of these households seemed to differ in more subtle ways than in the past and could not be so easily described in terms of socioeconomic status. Market research points to the segmentation of consumers with a variety of consumption styles. Other research (e.g. Dake and Thompson, 1998) has shown that clusters of food consumption styles appear to be linked to other aspects of household culture.

The media provide one mechanism for the generation of cultures of food consumption, and for the diversification of eating styles within households. A great deal of television content pertains to food and eating, including advertising, consumer journalism, cookery programmes, travel documentaries, scientific and health information, and drama. Dickinson (1998) finds that dialogues within households about the choice of food draw extensively on arguments and narratives from the media. People are rarely simply persuaded by advertising or health advice, but they play off the different arguments for themselves, and with each other.

Globalisation is a widely discussed phenomenon with major effects on food consumption. Migration has played an important role in introducing new cuisines to Europe. National diets now reflect European countries' historical relationships with other parts of the world, but the range of foods demanded and available are continuing to change with new waves of immigration from different regions. Tourism has been a further major contributor to the internationalisation of diets, as European nationals develop new tastes while on holiday, and seek out those cuisines after they return home.

Box 2.1. Genetic Modification

The development of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) has generated global debate. While consumer fears have concentrated on unknown risks of eating GM products, the more substantive debate relates to the risk of the release of modified genetic material into the environment, and to the control of the technology by multinational companies.

Evidence on the environmental effects of GM crops is growing, and it is likely that some crops will be found to offer environmental benefits, while others may encourage increased use of herbicides or other chemicals. Questions remain about the risks of cross-pollination and other routes for the spread of modified genes.

The debate has polarized institutions, with governments sometimes taking the side of the companies that have developed the technology. But since many supermarkets and food manufacturers have responded, perhaps reluctantly, to consumer concerns by withdrawing GM products, this issue can be seen as a success for consumer empowerment.

An obvious dimension of the globalisation of food supply chains is the growing level of food trade and transport. With the internationalisation of food chains, European and American supermarket chains are growing in size and influence. They help to shape both consumption and production, imposing their standards on farms around the world. With the consolidation of the industry through mergers and takeovers, multinational food manufacturing companies also have an increasing influence, upstream on agriculture, and downstream on retailers and consumers. The globalisation of the food-processing industry is resulting in a homogenisation of the range of food products available throughout the world – especially for affluent consumers. Global branding, marketing and advertising contribute to the development of a common language or value system linked to consumption. However, information on nutritional content, and on the environmental and social characteristics of products, especially those related to the production process, are sometimes left out of the message.

2.2.2 Consumption trends

Expenditure on food. During the 1990s, with growing incomes, household expenditure on food increased in most EU countries.

However, as overall household expenditure increased even more rapidly, the share of food and non-alcoholic beverages in total household spending declined, in some countries quite significantly.

Figure 2.4. Annual spending on food, selected European countries
(% of household budget)

Dietary shifts Despite medical advice, daily calorie supply rose within the EU from 3374 kcal in 1990 to 3539 kcal in 2001 (FAOSTAT, 2003). The increase is mostly in consumption of cereals, vegetable oils and sugar – the basic ingredients of many snack foods, but consumption of meat, fish, dairy products and fresh fruit and vegetables also increased.

In Europe overall, calorie supply fell over the same period from nearly 3380 to about 3320 kcal, mostly due to a decrease in consumption of animal products in the Eastern European countries.

Meat consumption is perhaps one of the most important dimensions of diet from an environmental point of view. European calorie intake per capita from meat consumption has increased by about one third since the early 1960s but is now growing much more slowly. There are significant differences in meat consumption among European countries and in the direction of changes (FAOSTAT, 2003).

Consumers are choosing less beef and lamb, and more pork and poultry. This trend is due to a combination of factors, including health scares such as BSE and foot and mouth, price differences, and nutritional advice that white meat is healthier than red meat. Poultry meat is also easier to integrate into prepared meals. While this dietary change may be beneficial for the health of consumers, poultry and pig farms are increasingly intensive and there are concerns about animal welfare.

Box 2.3. Packaging

Packaging waste comprises almost 1/3 of the total waste from daily household activities. Paper and cardboard is by far the largest fraction of packaging waste but with high recycling rates. Plastic packaging accounts for 29 kg/capita of waste per year, metals 9 kg/capita. The average rate of packaging recycling in the EU is close to 50% (28%-65%).

From 1996 to 2001, consumption of ready meals rose by 8.8 % within the EU, with major differences between countries. Greece, Spain, and Austria are seeing rapid growth from relatively low levels. The ready meal market in France and Germany is more developed and growing more slowly. Canned and frozen meals are still dominant but chilled product sales rose by 45% over the 5 year period (RTS 2003).

Out-of-home consumption also accounts for a significant and growing proportion of European food intake. In 2002, 24.4% of meals and snacks were eaten away from home. This is expected to grow to 27% by 2007. In the UK, almost 32% of meals and snacks are eaten away from home. This is set to increase to 35.5% by 2007. This compares to 20% in Germany and 25% in the Netherlands. (Datamonitor 2003). Approximately 25% of total household food expenditures go to out-of-home food sources. This is expected to reach 30 to 40% (Payer et al 2000). The environmental implications of these trends are not clear.

Box 2.2. Food scares – changing consumption?

From time to time consumers are faced with scandals about food production. Recent European examples include BSE and foot-and-mouth disease. Beef consumption in Britain and Germany fell from 1987, after the BSE outbreak was recognised in the UK in 1986. UK consumption recovered as the disease was brought under control in the mid-1990s. In Germany, which had no cases of its own until 2000, and in the EU overall it has continued to fall.

Beef Consumption

Beef Consumption

One positive sign for the environment is the growth in demand for organic food. Since the beginning of the 1990s, organic farming has developed rapidly in almost all European countries, and this strong growth is continuing. By the end of 2001 3% of the EU agricultural area and 2% of EU farms were managed organically. Compared to the previous year this was an increase of 17% in the organic land area. Including EU Accession Countries and EFTA countries the increase was 25%. In Austria, more than 11% of agricultural land is organic, in Switzerland 10%. However, some countries have yet to reach 1%, while more than one quarter of the European Union's organic land (1.2 Mha) and almost one third of its organic farms (50,000) are located in Italy (FiBL, 2003).

Figure 2.6. Certified and policy-supported organic and in-conversion land area in Europe (in 1000 ha)

The European market for organic food in 2003 is estimated at 10 to11 billion €. While this is less than 2% of the overall EU food market, it accounts for almost half of the global organic food market. EU regulation 2092/91 on organic production provides considerable protection for both consumers and producers. Within Europe, Germany has the largest organic market with a sales value of approximately 2.5 € billion or €31 per capita. However, Denmark (€72) and Switzerland (€68) lead in per capita consumption. These are countries where most products are sold via supermarket chains. This aspect is recognised as a main criterion for enlarging organic market share. In many countries, including Switzerland, already more than 70% of organic products are sold through multiple retail chains. Nevertheless, in most European countries specialised health food and organic shops have benefited from the organic boom (Yuseffi and Willer 2003).

2.2.3 Environmental effects of food consumption trends

A large proportion of the environmental impacts of food consumption are associated with agricultural production. The impacts include:

While food consumption levels are increasing in Europe, crop yields and livestock productivity are rising faster. Hence the total amount of land required for agriculture declined from 164 Mha in 1961 to 140 Mha in 2001 for EU15, although the area of irrigated land is rising. Continuing habitat and species loss has mostly been linked to changes in production patterns, such as increasing use of pesticides and the removal of hedges.

In addition to their effects on biodiversity, agrichemicals such as pesticides, fungicides and herbicides pollute surface and ground water. The intensity of agrichemical use has declined in many countries although it is increasing in others (EEA, 2003a).

Agricultural fertiliser is the main source of nitrate pollution in European waters. In the EU15, fertilizer use has stabilized in recent years after a significant decrease in central and eastern European states in the early 1990s (EEA, 2003a).

The aspect of food consumption that has most impact on the environment is the share of animal products in the diet. While animal products supply 30% of food calories in Europe, 40% of agricultural land is under permanent pasture and 65% of grain consumption is for animal feed. Only 25% of grain consumption is for food.

Kramer et al (1998, 1999) find that household food spending is correlated with the energy use and CO₂ emissions in the food supply chain. Higher value products involve more energy use in greenhouse production, transport and food processing. A Swedish study compared four different meals with the same energy and protein contents in terms of their GHG emissions (Carlsson-Kanyama 1998). It found life-cycle emissions ranging from 190g CO₂-equivalent for a vegetarian meal with local ingredients to 1800g for a meal containing meat, with most ingredients imported. Vegetarian meals can have higher life-cycle GHG emissions than meals including meat, if the vegetarian ingredients are transported long distances, or include high emissions in production (e.g. some rice is produced with high methane emissions).

The direct energy use in agriculture is small compared with the rest of the food supply and consumption chain. The agriculture sector accounts for about 2.3% of total final energy consumption in the EU15. However, the manufacture of fertilizers and pesticides probably accounts for 3-4% of total final energy consumption. In the EU15, fertilizer use is increasing slowly. There was a significant decrease in central and eastern Europe in the early 1990s.

In Europe, CO₂ emissions from land-use change are negligible. Non-CO₂ greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture consist primarily of methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O), greenhouse gases which are many times more powerful than carbon dioxide (CO₂). Dairy cattle are the principal producer of methane emissions. In the EU-15, the contribution of the agricultural sector to total GHG was almost 10% at over 400 Mt CO₂-equivalent in 2001. Agriculture non-CO₂ GHG emissions fell by 6.4% between 1990 and 2001, compared with a reduction of 3.5% in overall EU15 GHG emissions.

Figure 2.7. Non-CO₂ GHG emissions from EU agriculture, 2001 (CO₂-equivalent basis)

More than 500kg CO₂-equivalent emissions per capita are from animal production – nearly double the figure from crop production (268 kg), to provide less than half the food calories.

Between 1990 and 2000, methane emissions fell by 7% and nitrous oxide emissions by 5.5%. There was also a significant reduction in methane emissions in Accession Countries and GHG emissions from agriculture fell by more than 6% in EFTA countries (Eurostat 2003f).

Figure 2.8. Development of non-CO₂ greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture

Impacts of animal husbandry. Apart from GHG emissions and the sheer area of land required for livestock, environmental impacts of meat production include soil erosion due to overgrazing and water and air pollution from animal effluent. The increasing consumption of poultry and pork has intensified environmental pressures from large-scale production (OECD, 2001b).

Transport. Within the EU, freight transport in the food supply chain, including agricultural products, live animals, foodstuff and animal fodder, has a share of 30% of total freight tonne-kilometres. Since 1991 in the UK, food-related tonne-kilometres have grown by 26.6% compared with an average 20% across all freight sectors. The average length of haul for food is 129km, substantially further than the average of 94km for all freight. A fifth of food (by weight) moves more than 200km. This is partly because the supply chain has become more complex (Garnett 2003).

It is often assumed that food miles constitute a dominant part of the environmental impact of the food supply chain. But several studies show that imported foods sometimes have lower impacts than local food – e.g. when local production requires heated greenhouses (Carlsson-Kanyama 2000, Jungbluth 2000).

Energy use within households. Food-related activities such as refrigeration, cooking and cleaning account for 7-12% of household energy use. Historically, growth in household electricity consumption has been due largely to expanding household ownership of food related appliances (refrigerators, freezers, dishwashers, microwave ovens) (OECD 2001c).

Waste. On a global basis, one quarter of the food entering the institutional and household distribution system is lost. Levels of waste are closely correlated with levels of income, with little food wasted at low levels of income, but with 30-60% of food requirements lost in high income countries (cited from Carlsson-Kanyama and Faist, 2000). Food waste is the wettest and most dense component of domestic waste streams. Increasing packaging has helped to reduce waste from spoilage but has significantly increased the amount of non-organic wastes entering the waste stream from household food consumption and diversified the materials. Although recycling rates for many packaging materials have increased, wastes from household food consumption are among the least affected by these trends (OECD, 2001c).

Impacts of the growth of organic production. Several studies have been carried out on the environmental impacts of organic production (e.g. Vetterli et al, 2002; Shepherd et al, 2003; FAO, 2003). They show that organic farms use 50-70% less energy (direct and indirect) per unit of product than conventional farms mainly as a result of different fertiliser consumption, depending on the product. Organic production also has clear benefits for biodiversity on agricultural land, although lower yields may mean that a larger land area is required than under conventional production methods. Soil erosion and deterioration is generally expected to be lower because of the higher input of organic matter, although there is little empirical evidence for this at present. Runoff of nitrates into groundwater is expected to be reduced, although again there is little evidence at present. Organic livestock production may result in an increase in methane emissions, as food productivity per animal is lower than in conventional agriculture, and there is little evidence for any reduction in methane emissions per animal. On the other hand, methane emissions from slurry and nitrous oxide emissions from fertiliser decomposition are expected to be reduced.

Convenience foods. The environmental effects of the trend towards convenience foods depend on a variety of factors. As more of the food preparation process occurs in the formal manufacturing and services sector, energy use and waste by the food industry are increasing. Packaging and packaging waste is also increasing. But food trimming waste and energy use in households might be expected to be falling. Meanwhile, industry has better opportunities than households for recovery of energy and materials and for the environmentally responsible treatment of waste. It is also easier for government to impose and enforce environmental regulations on industry than on households.

Several lifecycle analyses have compared freshly made and convenience meals. The results are ambiguous, but the studies show that energy use is the main criterion and can be improved in industry as well as in households. One study compared a ready meal with a home-made meal containing meat loaf, potatoes, pies and carrots. It found similar energy consumption for the two cases, as long as the meal was prepared for only one person. If the meal is to feed more than one, the home-made meal requires less energy. The balance also improves in favour of the home-made meal if it is cooked using natural gas instead of electricity.

2.3 Household energy consumption

Households are one of the largest final energy consumers in the EU, accounting for 26.2% of the total energy consumption in 2001 (compared to 27.7% for industrial use). European households consumed 10 EJ in 2001, equivalent to over a tonne of coal per person or 2.5 tonnes per household. This was 14.5% more than in 1990 (Eurostat, 2003g; New Cronos). Nevertheless, because of a shift in the mix of energy carriers, from coal and oil towards gas and electricity, household energy use is becoming cleaner. In most EU15 countries, it is no longer a major contributor to urban air pollution.

Fuel switching both in homes and in power generation has resulted in a reduction in CO₂ emissions from residential energy use, despite a continuing increase in the amount of energy used. However, the residential sector does remain a major contributor to overall greenhouse gas emissions (about 22% of total fossil fuel CO₂ emissions in 2000). As the power sector “dash to gas” reaches its limit, and without further major expansion of European nuclear power capacity, CO₂ emissions from residential energy use are expected to rise in the future.

Perhaps the greatest challenge in seeking to reduce the environmental impacts of residential energy consumption is that it is inconspicuous and habitual. People do not notice that they are using energy. Central heating and hot water systems are automated, often heating rooms and water when they are not needed; a growing share of electricity is consumed by appliances on “standby”; and refrigerators and freezers, which function in the background remain among the largest energy consumers.

2.3.1 Influences on household energy consumption

Energy is a derived demand, in that consumers are usually not interested in consuming it for its own sake. In households, energy is used to deliver services, the most important being space heating and cooling, hot water, lighting, and the operation of appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines and televisions. Whereas food consumption is often part of social interaction, energy consumption is incidental. Much of it is “inconspicuous” consumption resulting from the householder's pursuit of cleanliness, comfort and convenience (Shove and Warde, 1997; Shove, 2003). Energy consumption is shaped to a large extent by cultural expectations, habituation, and household circumstances, as shown in Figure 2.9. However, expectations of cleanliness, comfort and convenience are changing as a result of new technologies, higher incomes, acclimatisation to higher standards of comfort at work, and much else.

Figure 2.9. Influences on household energy consumption and its environmental impacts

This section starts by identifying the proximate influences on energy consumption – household size, building fabric, energy efficiency of technologies, energy prices etc. – and then goes on to address the underlying social and cultural influences.

Demographic determinants. Household energy demand obviously depends on the number of households, the number of inhabitants per household, and activities within each household. In the European Union, the number of households grew 11% from 167 million in 1990 to 185.8 million in 2000. Over the same period the population only grew 2.8%. Average household size fell from 2.6 people in 1990 to 2.4 in 2000. While the increase in the number of households is achieved partly by subdividing existing buildings, much of it is due to new construction. Hence, the housing area per person increased.

The energy requirement for heating, lighting, and some appliances such as refrigerators and televisions, does not differ much between a two-person household and a three-person household. Hence shrinking household sizes results in increasing energy use per person.

Technology and infrastructure. The challenge of energy conservation and GHG mitigation in buildings is often defined largely in technological terms – finding ways of introducing more energy-efficient technology into the building stock. Certainly building size, design and fabric have a major influence on energy use. The age of the dwelling may determine the building fabric, the presence and quality of insulation, and the type and efficiency of the heating system. The energy carrier (gas, oil, electricity, etc.) is as important as the efficiency of the boiler itself.

Technological progress contributes to an improvement in energy efficiency, but innovation is also creating a growing diversity of energy-using appliances. Lighting and electrical appliances are the main areas of growth in household energy use. The range of domestic appliances is increasing, and the number of appliances per household is also rising.

A small but growing cause of inconspicuous energy use is the increasing number of electrical appliances that consume electricity when they are not in use. In some cases this is because of built-in clocks or computers that require power to run; or because the appliance is on “stand-by”, ready to be powered up by a remote control handset. Many appliances consume electricity even when they appear to be turned off, because they contain transformers that are still connected to the power supply.

Economic factors. Household energy use is correlated with income (Lorek and Spangenberg, 2002). As in the case of food, higher-income households spend a smaller proportion of their budget on energy than low-income households (i.e. the income elasticity of demand is less than one).

Energy costs are a very small component (3-4%) of overall household budgets, so only the lowest-income households are price-responsive in their energy demand. Price differences between fuels, or between suppliers of a given fuel, can have significant influences on consumer choice but in competitive markets, utilities offering cheaper gas or electricity have to go to great lengths to draw consumers' attention to the benefits. Similarly, the experience of energy conservation programmes has shown how little interest consumers have in the cost reductions that can be achieved.

The higher energy consumption of wealthier households is partly linked to their larger living space and number of rooms per household member. In German rented flats, the average living space was 102 m² among households with monthly income over €3800, compared to an average living space for all income classes of 67 m². A similar picture can be shown for owner-occupied flats. Here the average for all income groups is 110 m² but the living space for households with an income above €3800 is 144 m² (Federal Statistical Office Germany, 2002).

Appliance ownership also depends on income. As household income rises, expenditure on appliances (reported in the statistics in a category with furnishings and textiles) increases at an even faster rate. Comparing income groups within countries shows that the poorest 20% spend between 2.2% (Sweden) and 4.4% (Luxembourg) of total household expenditure on this category, while the wealthiest 20% spend 3.3% (Spain) to 5.9% (Germany).

Household composition. Household composition and age also play a role. Families with preschool children may occupy their homes throughout the day, whereas working couples without children are away from home all day. Elderly people may need higher levels of heating than fit young adults, and if they live alone they may keep the TV on all day. On the other hand, older people have usually developed less energy-consuming habits earlier in life than younger people. Younger people dedicate a larger share of their total expenditure to furnishings, textiles and appliances (European Commission 2001, Consumers in Europe).

Households whose head is unemployed, retired or otherwise inactive spend a higher than average proportion of their budget on energy (European Commission 2001). These households both have below-average disposable income, and make use of the home during the day. On the other hand, higher-income households with employed heads of household are more likely to own energy-using appliances such as dishwashers.

Occupier behaviour. Householders' choices influence energy use through the choice of dwelling (subject to economic and other constraints). They may determine the patterns of ventilation, room temperatures and the pattern of heating through the day. Heating energy consumption can vary by up to a factor of two in similar dwellings because of occupier behaviour. Residents can also influence energy consumption through minor renovations such as draught-proofing. Home owners can influence energy consumption through thermal insulation and the choice of heating systems. (Lorek 2001)

Habituation. People are becoming accustomed to higher levels of cleanliness, comfort and convenience. Personal body odours are more noticeable than in the past, because most people shower or bath daily. We expect a roughly constant indoor temperature through the year. Clothes and bedding are changed and washed more frequently. We are able to maintain a well-stocked kitchen with minimum concern about food spoilage. And these expectations are met with a minimum of action on our part, through technology. We have automated hot water systems, central heating, washing machines, refrigerators and freezers.

To some degree, technology has clearly made life pleasanter and easier. However, some of the new habits are arguably more a matter of social norm than improving physical quality of life. For example, human beings adapt quite easily to moderate variations in the temperature of their living environment. A room temperature of 16°C is easily adequate for most healthy adults, yet it is now the norm in much of Europe to heat homes to 21°C or more in winter.

Social factors. Although energy consumption in itself may be inconspicuous, it is linked in many ways to consumption as a social phenomenon. One of the most obvious aspects of this link is through the house itself. Our homes are closely bound up with our personal identities (Csikszentmihalyi and Rochberg-Halton, 1981).

Trends towards smaller household sizes and larger floor areas per person link to wider social and cultural trends, in particular the individualisation process discussed in relation to food. Traditional social forms such as the extended family, and even the nuclear family, are breaking down. Adults are more likely to live alone, and separated parents often maintain bedrooms for their children in both homes.

There have been significant changes in the way homes are used, closely linked to the individualisation trend, to the increasing number of women in formal employment, to the increasing flexibility of working hours, and increasing home-working. The growing number of TVs and video game machines provides busy parents with a way of entertaining children and teenagers. Children often have their own bedrooms with their own TV sets. Central heating is one of the facilitating factors in this development, as it enables the whole house to be kept at a comfortable temperature, encouraging household members to spend their time in individual pursuits scattered around the home.

The growing number of home appliances is also part of the phenomenon of product diversification in the consumer economy, where businesses compete with each other to supply an increasingly diverse range of products, and to improve on those products faster than each other in order to gain market share. One response among consumers is the development of groups who own and are knowledgeable about those products. In some households, owning the latest model of plasma screen TV may be symbolic of sophistication and success. In others, the prized possession may be a “traditional” oil-burning kitchen range. In still others, it may be the most advanced computer or video game system.

At the same time, there seems to be some international convergence in concepts of an ideal home. Students from different countries, when asked to describe the home they would most like to live in, produce a similar vision of a large, well-equipped house in the country (Harper, 2000). The convergence is currently concentrated in mobile, middle class people with a high degree of exposure to the media, but these are the people who are likely to set the lifestyle trends in their own countries in the future.

2.3.2 Household energy consumption trends

The vast majority of household energy consumption in Europe is in the form of gas, oil and electricity, although coal, coke and wood make a substantial contribution. During the 1990s, European households shifted the balance of their fuel mix away from oil and solid fuels towards natural gas and electricity.

The largest energy-using activity in households is space heating, which is provided mainly by the burning of natural gas, oil or solid fuels in central heating systems, stoves and fireplaces. Households also use gas and oil for water heating, and gas is used as a cooking fuel. Most other energy applications are based on electricity.

The residential share of energy use and its rate of increase vary considerably between countries. Energy consumption is rising most rapidly in countries where current consumption levels are relatively low.

Household expenditure on energy. Europeans in 1999 spent, on average, 3-4% of their total household budgets on energy. The proportion ranged from 2.9% in the United Kingdom to 6.8% in Denmark. On average, electricity amounted to 40% of energy expenditure in the majority of the Member States in 1999, while Dutch and Italian households spent a higher proportion on gas (52.8% and 42.3% respectively). Solid fuels accounted for more than a quarter (28.4%) of energy spending in France and more than a fifth (21.5%) in Ireland (European Commission, 2001).

The tax-inclusive prices of residential fuels and electricity increased between 1990 and 2002. The market for household fuel is affected more than the industrial fuel market by weather conditions, with colder years pushing up demand and prices (Eurostat, 2003c).

Heating energy. The vast majority of household fuel use is for heating and hot water provision. Residential energy use per capita varies widely among European countries, from 150-350 kWh in Portugal, Spain and Greece, through 500-700 kWh in most of northwest Europe, to over 700 kWh in Scandinavia. Levels in most EU countries are fairly steady, fluctuating from year to year with the weather, but in a few, such as Greece and Spain, residential energy use increased steadily during the last decade. (WRI 2003)

The energy efficiency of housing improved during the last decade but saving potentials are still estimated to be in excess of 20% (EEA 2002, E&E in EU). Demand is increasing because of the growing number of households and increasing floor space, along with a decline in energy prices.

Box 2.4. Cooling energy

A frequently mentioned reason for growing energy demand is air conditioning. Its level of use in Europe is indeed rising sharply. Between 1980 and 2000 a floor area of nearly 80 Million m² was newly-equipped (or renewed) with air conditioning facilities. This growth is partly related to climate changes but also to the development of the tertiary sector, especially office buildings. This explains the higher growth in central European countries (Germany) than in Portugal and France. Households still have a marginal share in this development.

Center for Energy Studies, 2003

Electricity. The most environmentally significant trend in energy consumption over the last few decades has been the rapid increase in electricity use. The 90s showed a average growth rate of 2,2%. (EEA, 2002b). Table 2.5 shows the EU 15 average and countries differing most significantly from the average.

Household appliances. Historically, growth in electricity consumption has mainly been due to the increasing stock of household appliances. However, a study on electricity consumption by domestic appliances in EU15 in 2001 showed a clear drop in energy consumption by major kitchen appliances (see Table 2.6). Altogether, the appliances included in the study consumed about 250 TWh of electrical energy in 2000, about 30 TWh less than in 1990 (Stamminger 2001). All of these household appliances are improving in energy efficiency.

All of these appliances are increasing in number in the EU15. There is more than one refrigerator per household. Roughly half of all households have a separate freezer. Washing machines were present within 90% of EU households in 2000, whilst dryers (27%) and dishwashers (37%) were far less common.

Similar patterns, although at lower penetration levels, can be seen in the Accession Countries. Refrigerators are available in nearly all households in all countries. However, automatic washing machines are less common. In some countries the combination of automatic and non-automatic washing machines adds to a percentage comparable with the EU average. In others, such as Poland, both types add to much more than 100% (European Commission 2001).

Where appliance ownership has saturated (refrigerators, freezers, washing machines), energy consumption appears to have passed its peak as stock is replaced with new, more efficient machines. By comparison, where the stock is increasing (dishwashers and tumble dryers), total electricity consumption is also rising. These data do not account for the reduction in energy use elsewhere, e.g. some studies have found that using a dishwasher requires less energy than hand washing of dishes. For most appliances, there is an energy benefit from replacing old stock with new, more efficient technology (Stamminger 2001).

Rising income has combined with relatively stable or even falling prices for appliances, to encourage the ongoing expansion in electric appliance ownership. The price of major household (kitchen) appliances fell on average by 1.1% per annum (or 4.3% in total) during the 1990s. On average more than 30% of households buy at least one major household appliance within any year. Countries with high demand for large appliances also have a high demand for smaller appliances, and make more extensive use of repair services for their household appliances. (European Commission, 2001)

While appliances are getting cheaper, the cost of repair services rose on average by 3.6% per annum for household appliances, and 2.6% per annum for other electronic goods (European Commission 2001). It is also becoming increasingly difficult to get appliances repaired, supporting the demand for new products.

Box 2.5 Consumption of Information and
Communication Technology

Eurostat reports that on average in the EU people spend 3 hours 26 minutes per day watching TV although other studies find shorter viewing times (European Commission, 2001. The environmental implications are not clear as they depend on what viewers would do otherwise. A trip in the car would have a much greater environmental impact. On the other hand, TV viewing content may encourage environmentally intensive foreign travel or other consumption.

Computer and Internet use may similarly be alternatives to environmentally damaging activities, or it may stimulate them. ICT has often been suggested as a means of reducing travel but by helping to strengthen international working and social relationships, and by enabling travellers to stay in touch with home, it may encourage more travel.

Electronic goods. While energy use by kitchen appliances is declining, electricity use by electronic goods is rising. Major areas of growth include digital TV receiver-decoders, DVD players, personal computers and peripherals and computer game equipment. For these products, energy efficiency is rarely a purchase criterion.

The price of recreational equipment is dropping very rapidly, most notably in the information technology sector, where the consumer price index fell on average by 12.7% per annum between 1996 and 2000.

While 97% of private households in EU-15 have a colour TV, a growing number of households – especially where they include teenage children – now have a second or third TV. Further potential for TV sales and increasing energy use lies in the rising number of households, and in the upgrading to new technology, such as digital, wide-screen and plasma screen TV. In Accession Countries, most households have a TV but a significant proportion of these are black and white (Eurostat 2003e).

Box 2.6 Entertainment technology

Technological development is a major influence on household expenditure for entertainment. The 20th century saw a progression from the first wax cylinder phonographs, to wind-up 78rpm gramophones, to the long-playing record, to cassette tapes and video cassettes, and then to the CD and DVD. With each upgrade in the recording medium, earlier recordings are rereleased in the new form, creating a new market opportunity.

In 2001 the average number of titles released for DVD sale per EU country (1 830) had already overtaken the release of video cassette titles (approximately 1 250). The average number of titles released for rental was much higher on DVD (1 562) than on video (634).

Over the last twenty years, video cassette recorders (VCRs) have become a normal complement to the TV. According to the European Community Household Panel in 1996, the penetration of VCRs into homes was particularly dependent on the age of the head of household, as the lowest rates were found amongst adults aged over 65, either single (19.3%) or in a couple (45.7%), and retired persons (37.8%). Equipment rates generally increased with household revenue, from 46.0% amongst low-income households to 78.7% for high-income households (European Commission 2001).

In 1998 DVD technology was launched in Europe. Since then it has rapidly gained momentum and is expected to eventually replace the VCR (European Commission 2001, Consumers in Europe). The number of households owning DVD players increased nearly threefold between 2000 and 2001. Despite the expectation that video tapes will become obsolete, more than 4 million EU households bought their first VCR during that period. Several eastern European countries have saturation rates similar to the lower third of EU countries.

As a new information and entertainment tool, personal computers entered households very rapidly. On average in the EU, about 8% of inhabitants owned PCs in 1991. Within ten years the figure had increased nearly fourfold to 31%. Dutch households were particularly well equipped in 2001, with 65.5% owning a PC, 17.7% a laptop and 9.1% a handheld, the highest rates by far in the EU (European Commission, 2001). Eastern Europeans also adopted PCs very rapidly, although from a lower level in 1991 and with a lower ownership level in 2001. Slovenia has an unusually high penetration rate, starting form 0.3 % in 1991 to reach 27 % in 2001 (Eurostat, 2003a). PCs are normally surrounded by a broad range of peripherals such as monitors, printer, scanners, etc. The technology for each device is under rapid technological development, producing new and better generations within 6 to 18 months.

Age and income level are the most important factors in determining whether or not a household has a computer. A large difference in ownership levels also exists between unemployed persons (30.7% in 2001) and students (58.8%) or managers (60.2%) (European Commission, 2001).

2.3.3 Environmental effects of household energy trends

Energy use contributes to a range of environmental pressures and is the major source of greenhouse and acid gases in Europe. The most polluting fuel, in terms of CO₂, SO₂, NO_x and particulate emissions, is coal, followed by oil. Natural gas burns much more cleanly, can be used more efficiently in domestic boilers, and produces only 60% as much CO₂ per unit of energy as coal.

As Table 2.3 shows, during the 1990s, households in Europe continued a long term trend towards using cleaner and more convenient forms of energy – in particular shifting away from coal and oil towards gas and electricity. Hence, households are making a declining contribution to urban air pollution although this trend may reverse in future as gas consumption continues to grow.

Box 2.7 Electrical and Electronic Equipment Waste

On average in Europe a personal computer is in use for three years. Together with cameras, cellular phones, notebook computers, TVs and many other small electronic devices, they produce around 5.5-7 million tons of electronic equipment waste per year with a growth rate of 3-5%. The overall composition of electronic equipment scrap is characterized by a high metals content of more than 50%. This is dominated by ferrous metals. Plastics account for approx. 20%, glass contributes just under 10%.

Disposal of electronic waste presents serious hazards associated with carcinogenic substances, which can be leached to soil and groundwater over the medium and long term. Uncontrolled landfilling also releases contaminants, with a time lag. Incineration or co-incineration of electronic equipment waste with neither prior treatment nor sophisticated flue gas purification poses a major risk of generating and dispersing contaminants and toxic substances.

The EU Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment Directive (WEEE) came into force on 13 February 2003.

Meanwhile, the rapid growth in residential electricity use means that households are responsible for increasing levels of primary energy use, but fuel switching in the power sector is also leading to a reduction in environmental impacts. Power generators are also shifting away from coal and oil, towards gas, renewables and nuclear power.

Household energy use, including power generation, accounts for 22% of total EU15 CO₂ emissions. Emissions from both fuel use and electricity consumption declined during the 1990s. In both cases, energy consumption was increasing but there was a shift in the mix of fuels, from solid fuels and oil to gas. Nuclear power, hydroelectric power and renewables also increased their share in power generation.

The shift in the fuel mix can also be expected to have reduced other environmental impacts in the household energy supply chain, in particular acid gas precursors and particulate matter. In general, gas supply is safer and cleaner than oil or coal supply. However, the growth in nuclear power generation implies an increase in the generation of radioactive waste.

Another environmental impact of energy generation is water pollution. An important emerging trend is the growing use of freshwater resources for cooling purposes in electricity production. While water used for cooling is generally returned to the source, it usually has a higher temperature than when it was abstracted. Thermal pollution of waterways can lead to oxygen depletion in freshwater ecosystems.

Pollution of water and soil from energy use also occurs directly through leaking oil tanks and indirectly through acidic deposition caused by air emissions of NO_x and SOx. This has led to severe effects on lakes and rivers and on forests in some regions, with damage to freshwater fish, other fauna, and habitats. (OECD, 2001b).

2.4 Personal travel

Of the three household consumption clusters addressed in this chapter, personal travel is the fastest-growing. While food and agriculture have the largest impact on natural ecosystems, transport has perhaps the greatest impact in human settlements and on quality of life, as well as being a major contributor of GHG emissions. Because of its rapid growth and the self-evident problems of noise, congestion and urban air pollution, mobility has received a great deal of attention in the sustainable development agenda. However, it appears to pose some of the most intractable challenges to politicians and to citizens.

If household energy use is inconspicuous consumption, car ownership and use is perhaps one of the most conspicuous forms of consumption. After the home, the car is the largest capital investment for most households. For many people cars, like homes, help to define and communicate their identity and status in society. But cars have also become part of the “habitus”, of the “ordinary” consumption that is necessary to live a “normal” lifestyle in most EU countries. The car emerged as the dominant mode of personal travel during the 1960s, and most people now find it hard to imagine life without one. Proposals for “sustainable” transport often focus on changes in car technology, to achieve radical improvements in energy efficiency, to change the powertrain, and to make use of renewable energy sources.

While the growth in car use is now slowing (although not in the new EU Member States), aviation is of increasing significance as a transport mode. Like car travel, aviation is recognised as a sustainability policy challenge. Governments are ambivalent about aviation and most of their policies seek to promote it. There are so far no realistic contenders for an alternative energy source for aviation. And international travel remains one of the strongest aspirations among Europeans.

2.4.1 Influences on personal travel

Whereas food and warmth are clearly basic needs for survival, personal travel is much more evidently a socially constructed need. In the mid-19^th century, most people in Europe travelled only on foot. By the beginning of the 20^th century, growing numbers were able to travel by bus, train and tram, the first urban metros had been opened in London and Paris, and the first cars were on the roads in France, Germany and Britain. It wasn't until the 1960s that cars began to take over as the form of transport for the majority, and by then, a new form of transport, aviation, was increasingly accessible.

The desire to travel appears to be very deep-rooted. Children, perhaps especially boys, seem to have an innate fascination with wheeled vehicles, whether cars or trains. Adolescents long for their first motorbike or car – a rite of passage, practical means to personal freedom, and often a prerequisite for finding a partner. Adults, especially those with families, feel that they could not live without a car. So what is shaping car demand? Are there any grounds for supposing that it may one day stop growing or that an alternative mode of transport might emerge as preferable?

For most of the last half-century, transport analysts and planners have viewed their role as one of providing for the public demand for mobility. People seem to want to travel, to get from A to B. They travel more as they get wealthier, and as the transport technology available to them gets faster and cheaper.

The models used by governments to plan road systems rely on the concept of “trip generation”. People want to get from an “origin” to a “destination”, for whatever reason. Whether they make the trip or not, and the mode of transport they choose, depends on the distance between origin and destination, and the cost and speed of the various transport modes.

The planners responded to the predicted demand by building roads, which of course made car travel faster, or at least created the capacity for more people to travel at the same speed, and traffic levels increased.

In the last 20 years, this attitude of supply-side management gave way to a more complex view of transport policy. It was increasingly recognised that road-building helped to stimulate traffic. More attention began to be paid to settlement patterns – the locations and density of homes, work places and services – and their roles in shaping lifestyles and travel patterns.

This section starts by reviewing the broad understanding of travel behaviour that is emerging. Some of the influences are identified in Figure 2.10.

A complex system. Part of the challenge in making sense of transport policy is that personal travel is part of a complex system (Michaelis, 1997b). Transport technology, urban structures and road systems, home designs, patterns of work, shopping and leisure have all evolved together. The transport sector is a crucial part of the economy, thoroughly embedded in cultural life, a source of pleasure, interest, annoyance and grief.

From the Industrial Revolution, society has organised itself around a succession of transport systems (Grübler and Nakicenovic, 1991), from canals to railways, then roads and most recently aviation. The current system, based on roads, cars and trucks, developed first in the United States and then spread to Europe. It is now becoming increasingly important in other parts of the world. The United States, as the first developer of the system, saw the slowest growth in car travel but now has a very high, and still rising, level of car ownership. Europe, as a follower region, is seeing faster growth but also shows signs of that growth slowing down (although not yet levelling off) at a lower level of car ownership. A major factor limiting growth of car use in Europe is the design of its cities, most of which were first built at a time when most people walked for most trips. Roads have been widened and parking spaces created, but traffic congestion is inevitably a much greater limiting factor in Europe than in America.

Economic influences on car ownership and travel patterns have been extensively researched. Car ownership increases with income. Several analysts find that historical data are consistent with car users having a constant budget (as proportion of income) for car use. This implies a price elasticity of car use with respect to total cost of -1, and an income elasticity of +1. But the income elasticity is much higher in the Accession Countries than in Europe. One set of transport scenarios assumed an income elasticity of demand of +2.5 in central and eastern Europe for the period to 2020.

Table 2.9 summarises some of the econometrically derived relationships between the cost of travel and travel demand, as well as the level of car ownership and fuel economy.

Various factors in addition to transport costs and income affect travel activity, including household size, the occupation of the head of the household, household makeup, and location. People in higher-skilled occupations, requiring higher levels of education, are more price- and income-responsive in their transport energy demand than people in lower-skilled occupations. Families are more price- and income-responsive in the early years of child-rearing than in the later stages (Michaelis, 1996a).

Car ownership, and the association of cars with personal status, has been encouraged in many countries by the use of company cars as a tax-efficient form of employment benefit. Once a household has access to a car, it usually becomes the main mode of transport. From the 1970s, companies developed quite detailed rankings of the types of car that could be provided to employees at different levels in the hierarchy. In Britain, company cars formed a large part of the new car market and were rapidly sold on as second-hand vehicles, tending to skew the characteristics of the national vehicle population towards larger engines and higher levels of in-car equipment than would be chosen by households buying their own cars.

Settlement patterns and transport planning influence travel patterns in a variety of ways. Car ownership levels are highest in rural and suburban areas, and lowest in high-density city centres. While car ownership has been seen as a sign of affluence in Europe, in recent years it is the rural poor who have become particularly car-dependent.

Within cities, the amount of traffic and the public choice of transport modes depends on the distribution of homes, workplaces, shops and services. In the 1960s, many city authorities adopted zoning policies, separating industrial estates from housing and creating growing transport demand. Since the 1980s, the development of out-of-town shopping centres has contributed to further growth in car use in many countries. The view among urban planners now is that the best path to more sustainable urban travel patterns is via mixed use development, with homes, shops, jobs and services co-located. However, in some European countries they face a major challenge in achieving this aim, with property prices within city boundaries often excluding many of the people employed there from home ownership and encouraging the growth of outlying villages and towns.

Urban planners have tried a wide variety of experiments to manage car use, ranging from the urban motorways of Paris and Birmingham (aiming to get the traffic off the city streets) to congestion charging and pedestrianisation. While it is now apparent that urban motorways simply generate more city-centre traffic, no traffic demand approach has been fully satisfactory. On the whole, the emerging wisdom is that cities need a broad-based mix of measures to limit car use and provide for public and non-motorised transport (ECMT, 1995).

Car-based lifestyles. Car dependency arises partly from the combined trends in infrastructure development, property and job markets, incomes and the relative prices of different transport modes. It is also part of a lifestyle that has emerged in Europe over the last 30-40 years. In surveys and focus group discussions, many people say that they cannot imagine life without a car because they simply could not carry out all of the tasks and activities that are now part of their life. Prior to the dominance of the car, lives were organised around local communities, with longer trips organised to fit in with public transport schedules. Car users have built their lives around the flexibility of the car. They combine shopping trips with travel to work or leisure outings. In-car storage space means that childcare equipment, shopping, and all kinds of personal effects can be carried around wherever they go. Socialising patterns have also developed to reflect the ease of travelling off the main transport routes. And cars have generated new patterns of dependency in relationships within families and communities, as children and teenagers need their parents to drive them wherever they go, and older people and others unable to drive require lifts to get out of their homes. Population mobility is a further major contributor to car dependence, as family members are increasingly scattered to different cities, and even continents (see below under aviation).

No choice. Transport patterns are a classic example of the phenomenon of “lock-in”, where there appears to most people in the system to be no choice but to continue with the current combination of technologies and practices. Transport users feel that their choices have already been made by governments, local authorities, supermarket owners, vehicle manufacturers etc. Car companies and transport service providers argue that they are simply operating within the system, responding to consumer demand and subject to government regulation. Government officials also work within a culture that says that they must seek to support consumer freedom, and protect the competitive interests of companies.

Car psychology. The car has become – perhaps always was – much more than a means of transport. In fact, car ownership has different meanings for different people. For a young man it may be a sign of virility; for a woman it may be a place of security from the dangers of city streets; and for the executive it may be a peaceful haven in which to unwind after a stressful day in the office. And for some, it is just a means of getting from A to B.

Götz (2003) finds that transport users fall into four cultural clusters, with their own sets of values and priorities, travel behaviour patterns, and environmental impacts:

The wider set of social and psychological functions of the car have helped to shape the design of new vehicles. Indeed, manufacturers have nurtured the imagery associated with cars through their advertising, with the help of motoring journalists and enthusiasts. Vehicle types are increasingly designed in accordance with social function, from the sports utility vehicles that represent independence, fun, adventure and individuality for younger people, to the small minibuses that are “needed” by families to transport children and their friends (Schor, 1998). Bigger cars seem safer (at least for the occupants). Increased passenger space allows the driver to be sure of always being able to offer a lift.

Meanwhile, car users tend to have a negative perception of other modes of transport. Götz (2003) finds that this is particularly true of his “status-oriented automobilist” cluster. Goodwin (1985) found that car users believed that public transport was both more expensive and less reliable than it actually is. Porter et al (1999) find that car users have much more realistic images of rail travel than of bus travel. Indeed, travelling by bus can seem socially challenging, as it involves much more personal contact with other travellers in a confined space than travelling by rail or car. Bus travel is also widely seen as a lower social status mode of travel than rail travel.

Aviation. For most of the 20^th century, the aviation industry was strongly encouraged by European governments, all of which had their own national airlines. Rapid growth in air travel in the 1970s and 1980s responded to, and helped to create, the demand for business travel. But with the growth of the charter flight industry, and more recently of the budget airlines, leisure travel has now taken over as the main area of growth. Europeans appear to have a strong taste for travel.

Perhaps part of the desire to travel is simply linked to the fun and excitement of going somewhere else. But it is also part of the cultural value set and of the system of roles and identities within modern European society. Schor (1998) observes that many Americans appear to travel in order to talk about it afterwards. Young people are told that travel will look good on their CVs. It is an extension of the 19^th century European tour that was part of becoming a cultured, sophisticated person.

Like the car, air travel is becoming increasingly part of a normal lifestyle. As we develop friendships and working relationships in different countries, and as we meet and marry people from other parts of the world, aviation becomes necessary for basic social functioning. The environmental impacts are not well-understood by most travellers. It comes as a shock to most to realise that a long-haul flight typically involves burning half a tonne of fuel per passenger.

The strong propensity to fly is reflected in very high income elasticities (in the region of 2 – i.e. each 1% growth in income leads to a 2% rise in air travel), and low price elasticities (in the region of -0.1) (Michaelis, 1997a). While there have been discussions in Europe of a tax on aviation fuel, it would be unlikely to have much effect on travel demand although it could encourage higher fuel efficiency.

2.4.2 Personal travel trends

2.4.2.1 Household expenditure on travel
Within the EU, the typical level of household spending on transport is in the range 12-14% of total expenditure (see Figure 2.12). Percentages are lower in some lower-income, and formerly centrally-planned countries. Portugal is unusual in having seen especially rapid growth in car ownership in recent years, and households spend about 17% of their budget on transport.

Many studies have found that transport spending remains roughly constant as a proportion of household budgets. As Table 2.11 shows, the changes in the transport share are indeed quite small over the period 1990-2000, with most countries for which data are available seeing a slight decrease.

However, within countries, the transport share of household expenditure increases with income. Vehicle operating expenses are a roughly constant proportion of household spending, but wealthier households spend a larger proportion of their household budgets on purchasing cars.

The purchase of a car is usually the second most important household expenditure decision, behind the acquisition of a flat or a house. It is also the main component in transport expenditures (5-7% of total budget). Fuel accounts for approximately two thirds of that. Car maintenance and repair is an important additional component, accounting for 1% of total household budgets (Eurostat 2001, Consumers in Europe).

The relative price of transport rose at a faster pace than the all-items consumer price index in every country (other than Greece) between 1996 and 2000. The index of consumer prices for transport (including transport services) gained 10% in the EU, while general consumer price inflation was equal to 6.4% (Eurostat 2001, Consumers in Europe).

2.4.2.2 Car ownership
Car ownership is widely used by governments as an indicator of the standard of living, and in car manufacturing countries, annual production figures are used as an indicator of the health of the economy. The number of passenger cars per 1000 inhabitants reached 478 in 2000 in the EU15. Between 1995 and 2000, the highest rates of increase in the number of cars per 1000 inhabitants were reported by Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain (Eurostat 2003c).

Car ownership in Accession Countries is below the EU15 average but comparable to the lower third of EU15 countries. Exceptions with ownership rates over 400 cars per 1000 inhabitants are Malta and Slovenia (EEA 2002a).

Table 2.11 summarises survey results for EU countries on the level of car ownership at different household income levels and for different household compositions, as well as the reasons stated by households without cars for not owning one. As one might expect, wealthier households are more likely to own a car than poorer households. The households most likely to possess a car were those with two adults and dependent children. Young people also show a greater tendency to own a car. Portugal and Greece have the highest proportion of households unable to afford a car, while the Netherlands and Denmark have the highest proportion of households not wanting to own a car.

2.4.2.3 Modal split
Over 80% of the total distance travelled by Europeans is by car. This figure has varied little for several years (Eurostat 2001). The rail share is over 10% and buses and coaches add 5%. Travel by all forms of transport increased in absolute terms.

Europeans travelled, on average, more than 10,000 kilometres during 2000 by car. The total number of passenger kilometres travelled by car grew, on average, by 3.1% per year from 1970. Only air transport recorded faster growth, with passenger kilometres increasing 78% during the last decade or 6% per year (see below). Travel by rail and bus is also increasing, despite reductions in the density of the railway network throughout Europe (Eurostat 2001).

The increase in kilometres travelled is partly due to a growth in the number of trips, and also to an increase in average trip length. People are travelling further to shop, for example. Shopping accounts for a fifth of all personal trips (216 trips a year) 55% of which are food shopping. The average distance travelled per year for shopping is 1428 km, over a third of which (558 km) is for food. 60% of shopping trips are by car.

2.4.2.4 Roads
Increasing car travel is supported by the construction of new roads. The EU had 52,700 km of motorways in 2001 (European Communities, 2003). More than 1000 km of new motorways are built per year, while in central and eastern Europe the construction rate is less than 100 km per year (Eurostat 2002). Motorways represent a small share of the total European road network, which amounts to about 3.5 million km (OECD, 2002a). However they are the main area of growth and have significant environmental impacts as they usually cut through relatively undisturbed ecosystems in rural areas.

2.4.2.5 Car travel
On average, the distance travelled per car in Western Europe is about 15,000 km per year. In Eastern Europe the average distance travelled is only about 10,000 km per year (Metschies, 2003). At a given national income level, cars in countries with low ownership rates are used more intensively. An average car travels 20,000 km a year in Denmark (where ownership levels are 349 cars per `000 in the population) but 12,000 km in Germany (533 cars per `000) (Metschies 2003).

Total EU car traffic amounted to 3788 Billion passenger kilometres in 2000, an increase of 18,5% on 1990 (Eurostat, 2003g).

The number of car trips per person (on average 3 per day) and occupancy rates (1.66 persons per car) are ratios that remained relatively stable during the 1990s. On the other hand, the average length of each car trip has increased. The most significant category of car use is for leisure (40% of trips), ahead of commuting purposes for work or education (30%) and shopping trips (20%) (European Communities 2001).

The average car fleet renewal rate in EU 15 was 8% in 2000, implying an average 12.5 years of use for each car. The number of petrol cars fitted with catalytic converters has grown rapidly since their mandatory introduction for new cars in 1993. As a result, some 58% of all passenger cars in the EU had a catalytic converter by 1998 (European Communities 2001). Additionally, newer cars have lower fuel consumption (on average below 7 litre/100 km) than the fleet average of 8 litre/100 km. This is partly a result of the voluntary agreement between car manufacturers and European Commission. The improvements in fuel economy to date are estimated to have improved the fuel economy of the entire EU car fleet by 2% (EEA 2003).

2.4.2.6 Fuel use
While fuel efficiency has improved significantly over the last two decades, the gains have been largely outweighed by an increase in the number of cars and in the distance driven.

There has been a marked growth in the proportion of unleaded petrol consumed during the 1990s. The price of unleaded gasoline was kept low during the early 1990s to encourage conversion from leaded, largely with the aim of reducing lead pollution. The shift was further encouraged with the introduction of catalyst-equipped cars, which cannot use leaded petrol. The unleaded share rose to 80% in the EU in 1999 and by 2000 only Greece, Spain and Italy continued to receive deliveries of leaded petrol, along with the Eastern European countries.

Between 1991 and 2002 the retail (tax inclusive) price of unleaded gasoline rose by 59% while the price of diesel increased by 39%. However, on average, diesel prices remained about 25% cheaper than unleaded gasoline prices. Both fuels exhibited price volatility over the period 1990 to 1999 reflecting global oil market developments. In 2000, the price of unleaded gasoline and diesel increased due to the rise in world oil prices and remained rather high for the next two years (Eurostat 2003).

2.4.2.7 Aviation
Passenger traffic on intra-EU flights grew at an average annual rate of 7.8% in the 1980s and 5.5% during the 1990s. In EU and EFTA countries passenger air traffic accounted for 157 billion passenger-km in 1990 and 281 billion passenger-km in 2000, a rise of 78%. If current rates of growth continue, air will soon surpass rail and buses and coaches and become the second most important mode of passenger transport after cars (Eurostat 2001).

The number of international passengers carried from or to EU Member States in 2000 was 434 million, an increase of 8.7 % compared to 1999. However, 2000 was the last year of substantial growth before the events of September 2001, which have significantly affected the airline industry.

12% of the total international intra-EU passenger volume in 2000 represented movements between the UK and Spain (both directions) alone, 9% between Germany and Spain (both directions). Among routes with a volume over 50,000 passengers, the Liverpool-Palma route recorded the highest growth rate (+171%) (Eurostat 2003h). These trips are clearly linked to holiday and leisure.

2.4.3 Environmental effects of travel trends

The most significant single contributor to the environmental impacts of the sector is car use, however, aviation is growing in environmental significance.

The transport sector accounts for about 32% per cent of European final energy use and 29% of CO₂ emissions (European Commission 2003). Since the sector is almost entirely dependent on oil (the main exception being electrified railways), energy use and CO₂ emissions are directly linked. EU 15 energy consumption, and hence CO₂ emissions, in transport were 22% higher in 2000 than in 1990. Increases in energy consumption can be observed in all modes of transport: 10% in rail transport, 19% in road transport and 58% in air transport.

The road share of transport energy consumption fell within Europe on average because of the growth in aviation. However, several individual countries saw an increase in the road share, including Greece, Portugal and Spain, as well as the eastern European countries. The large increase in energy use in air transport results from the growth in air travel in the EU 15 between 1990 and 2000. Over the same period, in the Accession Countries energy consumption by rail transport fell by 33%, while that of road transport rose by 26% (Eurostat 2003c).

In Europe, over 80% of transport energy consumption is by road vehicles. Estimates of the share of road fuel used for private consumption are based on survey data as fuel retail statistics do not distinguish consumption by cars and other vehicles. However, surveys in industrialised countries typically show that personal vehicles consume about two thirds of road fuel, with goods vehicles taking most of the remainder.

Toxic pollutants from the sector include lead, various types of particulate matter, volatile organic compounds, nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, ammonia and sulphur dioxide. Ozone is also formed from atmospheric reactions of NO_x and VOCs. NO_x, CO and VOCs from cars declined during the 1990s due to introduction of catalytic converters from 1993.

Between 1990 and 2000, SO₂ emissions from road transport were reduced by almost 76% in the EU 15 and by 74% in Accession Countries. The reduction is mainly attributed to the low sulphur content gasoline which has been made available in several member states since 1992.

2 Trends and emerging issues -Environmentally significant consumption clusters

2.1 A century of change