Environmental Essay no.29 – Adapting to the Climate of the Future

Adapting to the Climate of the Future

Efforts on two fronts

"Extensive rainfall over a very short time makes several rivers in France overflow their banks – to the surprise of many people. Meteo France states that within 24 hours 150 mm of rain fell at Marseille, and in some small towns nearby, up to 213 mm of rain fell in the same period. Normally, precipitation in this region reaches 70 mm for the whole season." This statement appeared on the Danish Meteorological Institute website on 8 December 2003.

It is true that this story is not about Denmark, and that we do not have rivers that big. However, this is not the point. What is important and worth noticing is the expression "to the surprise of many people". We have to try and prevent that similar weather extremes may also take us by surprise in Denmark.

The global climate is getting warmer. Average global temperatures have increased by approx. 0.6°C during the 20th century, and the last decade (1990-2000) was the warmest since systematic measurements began in the middle of the 19th century. Nature's response takes different forms – trees burst into leaf earlier in spring, animals move from their usual locations, the level of the sea rises.

With the global climate change – the approach of which is internationally recognised – the risk of certain extreme weather events will grow, also in Denmark. We have to accept the fact that the Danish climate is changing.

In Denmark there are already some indications of climate change. In the course of the last 15 years, average winter temperatures have increased by 1.5 to 2 °C and summers have become similarly warmer. In the warmer climate the birch pollen season starts three weeks earlier than 25 years ago (see page 32), and the amounts of pollen of both alder, hazel, birch, and grass are increasing.

From satellite monitoring meteorologists can see that in large parts of Southern Scandinavia, foliation is taking place up to four weeks earlier than it used to. However, Northern Scandinavia is seeing the opposite trend, since spring is generally coming a little later.

Opinions are divided on the extent to which the global climate change is a result of human activities, and on what we can do to prevent it from happening. No matter what, it still makes sense for decisionmakers in regional and local authorities, and for consultants and contractors etc., to start integrating climate change in their plans for the future. There is much to win, and little to lose.

By integrating climate change in planning projects now, Denmark can – with simple means – avoid both unpleasant surprises, unnecessary damage, and large costs.

Contingency and preparedness
First, we should not let ourselves be taken by surprise by extreme weather events – lack of foresight may cause tragedy and extensive costs, and this is exactly what decision-makers and other parties responsible for vital functions in society must relate to. In other words, we should have a contingency system that enables us to manage a range of specific weather situations.

Secondly, we should not be caught unprepared to the fact that the climate will be fundamentally different from what it used to be, affecting both water supply, coastal protection, agriculture, forestry, fishing, buildings, nature management, infrastructure and public health.

Work on two fronts instead of one
Consciousness of climate change does not at all mean that we give in to the problems it causes. On the one hand, Denmark, being an industrial country, is taking active measures to comply with our international agreements to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, thus minimising climate change. Denmark takes continuing measures to contribute to international work on climate change under the auspices of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, and to fulfil Danish commitments under the Kyoto Protocol of 1997. On the other hand, measures are also needed to adapt society, environment and nature to the new climate situation.

To allow Denmark to adapt to a different climate, the first task is to identify the areas in which decisions are needed in the short term, and the areas where decisions can wait till later. The progress of climate change is relatively slow, according to the climate scenarios calculated by scientists up till now. Therefore, some matters can be dealt with gradually, as they turn up. But continuing monitoring of developments and updated research is needed.

An unusual situation
Areas where decisions could be required in the short term are for instance coastal protection, forestry, sewerage, drainage and building regulations. As far as nature is concerned, choices should also be made, for instance to make sure that we do actually have the possibility of natural adaptation over a large number of years, if this is what we want.

In all these areas we must distinguish between statistical variations and real trends over long time spans – up to a 100 years or more. This is a situation that decision-makers are not used to.

Adaptation may also be a question of incorporating routine responses to possible extreme events, like forest fire and storm surge.

All in all, robust and long-term planning – with relevant safety margins – is preferable. By integrating climate change in work at an early stage, we can save a lot later.