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Ozone-depleting substances and the greenhouse gases HFCs, PFCs and SF6 2 Introduction
On behalf of the Danish Environmental Protection Agency (Danish EPA), the consulting firm PlanMiljø ApS carried out an evaluation of Danish consumption and emissions of ozone-depleting substances and the industrial greenhouse gases, or so-called F-gases, HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 for 2006. The evaluation was carried out in continuation of previous evaluations /13/ and references in these. The evaluation includes a calculation of actual emissions of HFCs, PFCs, and SF6. In this calculation of actual emissions, the release from stock of greenhouse gases in products has been taken into account, and adjustments have been made for imports and exports of the greenhouse gases in products. Appendix 4 describes the specific emission factors, etc. The evaluation was partly prepared to enable Denmark to fulfil its international obligations to provide information within this area, and partly to follow the trend in consumption of ozone-depleting substances as well as the consumption and emissions of HFCs, PFCs, and SF6. An example of reporting of Danish emissions is given in reference /18, 19, 21, 23/, and most recently, in reference /24/. The ozone-depleting substances regulated by the Montreal Protocol are depleting the earth’s protective ozone layer at a much greater rate than natural processes reproduce ozone. This is disturbing the natural balance and leading to an increase in dangerous ultraviolet radiation. The depletion is dependent on the different ozone-depleting potentials of the specific substances: their ODP values (Ozone-Depleting Potential). Greenhouse gases cause an increase in the ability of the atmosphere to retain surplus heat radiated from the earth. Consequently the temperature of the earth’s surface is rising and this leads to climate changes. There are several ozone-depleting substances that also have a strong greenhouse effect. The potential effect of different greenhouse gases varies from substance to substance. This potential is expressed by a GWP value (Global Warming Potential). The so-called F-gases that do not have an ozone-depleting effect, but which have high GWP values (HFCs, PFCs and SF6) are regulated by the Kyoto Protocol under the Climate Change Convention. The Danish EPA has published a booklet on the ozone layer and the greenhouse effect /5/, and in cooperation with the other Nordic countries, the Danish EPA has published a booklet on the protection of the ozone layer - Nordic Perspective /6/. The Danish EPA has also published a report on substituting the greenhouse gases HFCs, PFCs and SF6 /10/. 2.1 Monitoring GroupThe project was overseen by a monitoring group. The monitoring group reviewed the evaluation results. The monitoring group consisted of:
2.2 ObjectiveThe objective of this project was to map the 2006 consumption of newly produced industrial ozone-depleting substances and the consumption and actual emissions of HFCs, PFCs, and SF6. The evaluation was made in accordance with the IPCC guidelines (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) /4/, and following the method employed in previous evaluations. In Appendix 1, Tables 1.a and 1.b show the ozone-depleting substances regulated by the Montreal Protocol, their chemical formulas and ODP values (Ozone-Depleting Potential), and the potent industrial greenhouse gases covered by the Kyoto Protocol under the Climate Change Convention, including their chemical formulas and GWP values (Global Warming Potential). 2.3 Scope and definitionOzone-depleting substances This evaluation covers the net consumption of ozone-depleting substances. The term “net consumption” is understood as the amount of imported goods in bulk or drums, less any re-export of substances as raw materials. Ozone-depleting substances contained in finished products which are imported and exported are not included in the evaluation. This delimitation is in full compliance with international guidelines. The evaluation does not account for the consumption of regenerated ozone-depleting substances or substances used as raw material in the production of other substances, such as tetra chloromethane, and which are not subsequently emitted to the atmosphere. The information on consumption has been gathered from importers, suppliers and enterprise end-users (usually purchasing departments), and Statistics Denmark. This method of data gathering means that the information gathered is about the quantities of substances traded. Purchase and sales figures are used as an expression of consumption. This approach is considered to be suitable and adequate for the present purpose, since experience from previous projects shows that a levelling out occurs with time and that the substances sold/purchased are consumed within a relatively small time horizon. None of the substances covered here are produced in Denmark. Furthermore, ozone-depleting substances are treated at chemical waste processing plants in Denmark. Treatment and destruction data was gathered for the evaluation, but in line with all previous evaluations it has not been accounted for in the consumption figures. F-gases The evaluation of the actual emissions of HFCs, PFCs and SF6 was carried out in continuation of previous evaluations, which have become increasingly more comprehensive and accurate in step with the development of internationally approved guidelines (IPCC Guidelines) and guidance (IPCC Good Practice Guidance) and the provision of increasingly detailed data. The evaluation of the actual emissions includes quantification and calculation of any imports and exports of HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 in products, and it includes substances in stock. This is in accordance with the latest and most accurate method of calculation (Tier 2) among the options provided for in the IPCC Guidelines /4/. 2.4 MethodsConsumption and emissions The evaluation of the consumption and the calculation of emissions and stock were carried out on the basis of information from seven sources:
Information for the present evaluation was first gathered by means of a questionnaire survey. The responses to the questionnaires were supplemented where necessary with information gathered by telephone. The results of the project is primarily based on the information received from enterprise and importer respondents etc., as well as reports and statistics from KMO, etc. The information gathered from importers and suppliers was compared with information from consumer enterprises in order to monitor any discrepancies between purchase and sales information and application of the substances. In some cases, the use of individual substances was estimated on the basis of two sources, since the majority of the consuming enterprises were known. In cases where not all enterprise end-users had specified the application area for substances, the consumption of individual substances was estimated on the basis of the information provided by importers, suppliers, and any trade and industry-related associations, such as KMO. There may be inconsistencies between the information provided by suppliers and enterprise end-users. This is partly due to imports from other EU countries, changes in inventories of substances, or a lack of correlation between the quantities sold and the quantities consumed. It is also due in part to a certain amount of uncertainty in the method of calculation used by enterprises. However, sales and consumption information has been harmonised. The estimated average degree of uncertainty in the report's consumption figures (quantities sold and bought) is about 10-15 per cent, and slightly greater for data regarding application areas. The degree of uncertainty in the calculation of actual emissions is estimated at 20-25 per cent, depending on import/export information for the specific products. The evaluation was conducted using two different methods /4/:
The ozone-depleting substances are not included in the calculations of emissions of greenhouse gases, since ozone-depleting substances are regulated by the Montreal Protocol. When evaluating emissions of ozone-depleting substances, net consumption is considered equivalent to potential emissions. Thus: Potential emissions = imports + production - exports - destruction/treatment. The evaluation of greenhouse gas emissions is based on a calculation of actual emissions. Actual emissions are emissions in the relevant year, accounting for the time lapse between consumption and emissions. Actual emissions include Danish emissions from production, from products during their lifetimes, and from the disposal of products. Actual emissions for the specific areas of application are determined on the grounds of the following analyses: Tier 2 Top-down analysis In the Tier 2 Top-down analysis, emissions are determined on the basis of information on consumption in the various areas of application and calculated or estimated emissions in the area of application (emission factors). Tier 2 Bottom-up analysis. In the Bottom-up analysis, the estimated emissions for a specific application area are based on information from producers using substances in production and in products; information on imports and exports of products; information on the technological developments within the application areas; information on the average amount of greenhouse gases contained in products; and information on the lifetime of products and actual emissions during their use and disposal. Tier 2 bottom-up analyses were carried out within selected areas over a number of years. The analyses quantified the stock and, in some cases, Danish emission factors. Detailed analyses were carried out for commercial refrigerators, mobile A/C systems, fridges, freezers, and SF6 power switches. Analyses were evaluated in separate reports /2, 11, 16/. Bottom-up comprises:
Results from this analysis have been expanded in the present evaluation of actual emissions. As far as possible, the consumption and emissions of greenhouse gases have been evaluated individually, even though consumption of certain HFCs has been very limited. This was done to ensure transparency and consistency in time in the calculation of the sum of HFCs as their GWP value. However, it was necessary to operate with a category for "Other HFCs", as not all importers and suppliers have detailed records of sales of individual substances. Uncertainty varies from substance to substance. Uncertainty is greatest for HFC-134a due to its widespread application in products imported and exported. The greatest uncertainty in the analysis of substances by application areas is assessed to concern the breakdown of consumption of HFC-404a and HFC-134a between commercial stationary refrigerators and mobile A/C systems. This breakdown is significant for the short-term (about 5 years) emissions calculations, but will balance out in the long term. This is because the breakdown is only significant for the rate at which emissions are released. Appendix 4 shows an overview of all application areas included with descriptions of the bases of calculation. 2.5 Explanation of terminologyThe following terms and abbreviations are used throughout this report:
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