Report from the Sub-committee on Agriculture

3. Scenarios analysed

3.1 Total Phase-out of pesticides
3.2 Partial phase-out of pesticides

3.1 Total Phase-out of pesticides

The sub-committee has analysed a scenario for a total phase-out of pesticides.

In this scenario it is assumed that all pesticides, both chemical and biological, are phased out and that use is not made of microbiological control methods either. The use of macrobiological agents (useful animals) is allowed, but only in greenhouse production. However, some use of seed-dressing products is assumed to prevent seed-borne diseases from proliferating. The reason for this is that the sizes of the losses in cereal growing cannot otherwise be estimated.

It is also assumed that technological development will in the long term lead to agricultural practices for preventing and controlling pests, such as use of resistant varieties, mechanical control, cultural methods, genetically modified organisms, etc., which the sub-committees must try to predict and include in their analyses.

3.2 Partial phase-out of pesticides

In the case of partial phase-out, the mandate does not specify which scenarios are to be analysed. The scenarios considered were fixed by the main committee. The sub-committee has tried to analyse the following scenarios for farming, forestry and market gardening, although focusing mainly on the farming scenarios.

The scenarios have been chosen with a view to evaluating the consequences of gradually increasing restrictions on the use of pesticides.

For the scenarios for partial phasing out of pesticides – as for the scenario for a total phase-out, our analysis has included the long-term technological development, together with the possibilities of developing less harmful pesticides and the use of GMOs (genetically modified organisms/plants).

The following three intermediate scenarios have been analysed by the sub-committee:

1. Use of pesticides in a very limited number of crops to ensure continued compliance with the phytosanitary legislation and requirements (0+scenario; almost total phase-out).
2. Use of pesticides in limited crop/pest combinations that could otherwise be expected greatly to reduce the yield level (>15% loss in the average situation). This scenario is designated the +scenario - limited use with a consumption of around 20% of the present level.
3. Optimum use of pesticides in the present crop rotations from the point of view of production economy, designated the ++scenario. In this scenario, consumption is reduced by 30-50%, depending on the type of farm and method of calculation.