A shared future - balanced development
4. Climate change
In the long term, the atmospheric content of greenhouse gases must be stabilised at a level sufficiently low to prevent anthropogenic hazardous impacts on the climate. Unavoidable climate change must take place at a pace that allows ecosystems to adapt and ensures that food production is not threatened. At the same time, economic development must be maintained on a sustainable basis.
In an international context, Denmark has a high emission of CO2 per capita, which gives us a special responsibility. Via the agreement to reduce emissions of six greenhouse gases by 21 per cent between 1990 and 2008-12, Denmark will make a serious contribution to the Kyoto Protocol and thus to the prevention of global climate change. Because of the scale of the problem, there is a great need to further reduce emissions after 2012. The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has indicated that a stabilisation of climate-gas concentrations at levels which avoid anthropogenic climate changes may require emissions to be reduced by 50–70 percent.
On the background of the IPCC’s recommendations, the objective in the EU is that the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere be stabilised at a level equal to just under double the concentrations before industrialisation. This implies a long-term target whereby, before the turn of the next century, discharges by industrial countries are to be reduced by 10-15 per cent of discharges today. Denmark, along with the other countries participating in the Climate Convention, is expected to undertake further, significant emission reduction commitments in the budget periods after 2012. An indicative aim of a halving of CO2 emissions in Denmark within one generation could be the result of continued stricter reduction targets in coming budgetary periods.
The latest analysis from the UN Panel on Climate Change highlights climate problems as a major global environment problem, and as maybe one of the greatest global challenges this century. The CO2 concentration in the atmosphere today is about 30 per cent higher than it was before industrialisation. Within the next few decades, levels are expected to double compared to pre-industrial levels. Mean global temperature has risen by 0,6°C in the same period, accompanied by changes in snow and ice c over, heavy precipitation and other climate events.
In its latest report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that we may expec further increases in global temperatures of between 1,4°C and 5,8°C during the next century. Climate change, a rise in sea levels of between 9 and 88 centimetres, changes in the level of precipitation and, probably, more extreme weather conditions, droughts and floods will be the consequences. The greatest negative impacts of climate change are expected in developing countries, not least in the light of threatening floods and reduced scope for food production. In Denmark, climate change may result in warmer winters, increased precipitation and more storms in the long term. This may impact biodiversity and sectors such as agriculture, forestry and fisheries. Low-level areas may be flooded as a result of the rise in sea levels.
Since 1990, Denmark’s national objective to reduce CO2 emissions by 20 per cent by 2005 compared to 1988 has formed the basis of Danish policy. The Energy 21 action plan from 1996 strengthened Denmark’s position as a frontrunner in the energy field. In other sectors, such as transportation, agriculture, forestry and waste, the strategies and action plans adopted also play a key role in limiting greenhouse gas emissions.
Under the Kyoto Protocol of 1997, the participants agreed that total greenhouse gas emissions from the developed countries must be cut by at least 5 per cent in 2008-12 compared to 1990. At the same time, there were some issues left pending on the details of the Kyoto Protocol which were finalised in Bonn in July 2001 and in Marrakech in 2001.The Kyoto Protocol is the first important step towards implementation of the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.The Kyoto Protocol is expected to enter into force in 2002.
Based on the conclusions of the UN Panel on Climate Change, the EU ministers for the environment recommend stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level slightly under twice that of pre-industrialisation concentrations and that the global temperature increase should not exceed 2°C compared with pre-industrialisation levels. If this recommendation is to be met, by the end of this century the developed countries will probably have to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases to a level corresponding to 10-15 per cent of today’s emissions. This calls for considerable cuts in greenhouse gas emissions - between 2 and 2.5 per cent per year.
This presupposes a drastic reduction in resource consumption. Considerable technological progress is needed, as is a change in consumption and production patterns in the developed countries. At the same time, significant restraints in the long term must clearly be implemented in the developing countries, which can expect continued population growth and major economic development.
Despite such reductions, it is a fact that climate change cannot be averted completely; it can only be lessened. The effects of climate change may also be mitigated through provident adjustment. To achieve sustainable development, research and knowledge are needed, not only on reduction potentials, but also on future climate change and its effects, as well as the options for adjustment.This is paramount in being able to meet national and international challenges, especially in the long term.
Objectives and activities in the future
In 2005, the aim is to cut Danish CO2 emissions from energy consumption by 20 per cent compared to the 1988 level. Pursuant to EU agreements on distribution of EU emission reductions under the Kyoto Protocol, Denmark must reduce total greenhouse gas emissions by 21 per cent in 2008-12 compared to 1990. In March 2002, Denmark agreed to reduce emissions by 21 per cent compared to the unadjusted base year 1990, when Danish emissions of CO2 were extraordinarily low due to large imports of electricity from Norway and Sweden. In addition, the target is to halve the greenhouse gas emissions of the industrialised countries by 2030. If, in the long term, greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere are to be reduced further, international goals must be set for much bigger reductions after the expiry of the first budget period of the Kyoto Protocol in 2008-12.
The Government regularly monitors progress and whether we are ensuring "the most cost-effective approach for society when achieving environmental objectives". In order to live up to the objectives of the Kyoto Protocol all sectors of society must contribute to the reduction of emissions, for example, as described in the EU’s Sixth Environment Action Programme. For example, this applies to energy production, transport, agriculture, forestry, industry and households.
In terms of energy production, a possible extension of the CO2 quota scheme within the field of electricity generation will probably result in increased use of renewable energy and natural gas.
The transport sector must contribute to achieving Denmark’s commitment of reducing CO2 emissions by 21 per cent in 2008-12 compared to 1990.The Danish Government will consider possible measures for reducing CO2 emissions as a background for the setting of targets for the transport sector’s CO2 emissions up to the first budget period of 2008-12 and in the long-term.
Agriculture will also contribute considerably to the reduction of climate gases such as methane and nitrous oxide (laughing gas).The action plan for ammonia provides an initiative which contributes to a reduction in agriculture’s climate-gas emissions. But initiatives such as expanded biogas plants can also contribute to limiting emissions.
With respect to forestry, the increase in woodland areas will lead to absorption of CO2 during the generation of new forests, increasing the scope for biomass use.This is one reason why the Government aims at increasing woodland areas within one tree generation (80 to 100 years).
It is necessary to reduce emissions of strong industrial greenhouse gases such as HFCs, PFCs and SF6.
The Danish Energy Savings Act of 2000 provides for enhanced planning, coordination and prioritisation of overall energy-savings initiatives.
Further initiatives will be required of all sectors of society in the coming years in order to achieve objectives for the reduction of emissions by 21 per cent in 2008-12 compared to 1990.
At international level, Denmark is working actively to make the Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol efficient instruments in the fight against climate change.The Danish Government will use the flexible mechanisms in the Kyoto Protocol by initiating projects that contribute to the reduction of CO2 emissions abroad, so that CO2 reductions in other countries financed with Danish money are included in Denmark’s CO2 budget and meeting international CO2 obligations. This initiative may also contribute to transferring environmentally friendly technologies and to enabling the partner countries to better evaluate the sustainability of various projects.
Denmark also supports the Global Environment Facility (GEF), which since 1991 has donated more than USD 1.2 billion to developing countries and countries in Central and Eastern Europe for climate issues. Denmark also supports the UNEP’s Collaboration Centre on Energy and the Environment at the Risø National Laboratory in Denmark.
Denmark reports to the Convention on Climate Change regarding emissions and uptake of greenhouse gases, the prevention of climate change, expected results of climate change, compliance measures, research and monitoring initiatives and Denmark’s activities with regard to technology transfer and capacity building in developing countries.
It is an undeniable fact that climate change cannot be averted completely, only lessened. Based on the most recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the Government will conduct an analysis of possible climate effects in Denmark and draw up potential scenarios to establish a foundation for the necessary emergency measures.We must therefore also carry out research on the consequences of climate change. Increased focus on knowledge will aid important political decisions.