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Clean air - Danish efforts

Global warming
– the greenhouse gasses and the Climate Convention

The importance of the composition of the atmosphere for the energy balance of the earth and thus for the global climate has been recognised since the beginning of the 19th century. In the 1890's the Swedish meteorologist Arrhenius calculated that the doubling of the concentration of CO₂ could result in a global warming of 5-6°C. In the 1930's it became evident that the temperature was indeed increasing, but it did not receive much attention. Partly because it was considered almost an advantage, partly because such questions generally lost in the competition for political attention against social problems after the First World War, the economic depression in the 1930's, and the prelude to the Second World War.

In the years after the Second World War scientific interest in the phenomenon increased, but not until an international conference on "Green house effect, climate change and ecosystems" in 1985, was it politically recognised that it could be a problem with global impact on the environment.

Danish emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and other greenhouse gasses
Danish emissions of carbon dioxide increased slowly up to the middle of the 1990's and are now slightly decreasing. The values in 1975, 1990 (reference year) and 2000 were nearly identical, about 50 Mt. per year. Emissions of other greenhouse gasses, expressed in CO₂ equivalents, have been almost constant since 1990.

(Sources: NERI, Risø, Danish Energy Agency)
      

Stabilisation scenario
To stabilise the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere at twice the "natural" level (550 ppmv), it requires that global emissions are halved in the next decade and then further reduced.

(Source: IPPC).

The threat of climate change

The increased greenhouse effect and the threat of anthropogenic global warming have a time perspective reaching many centuries ahead. And it is a far more controversial phenomenon than the depletion of the ozone layer.

Different areas on Earth will be affected differently, and not all negatively. Denmark, seen in isolation, will be fairly well situated if plans for the expected climate changes are made in time - especially within forestry and in connection with construction of large infrastructures. A rising sea level resulting from global warming can, however, also in Denmark cause problems in low lying coastal areas.

Generally the developing countries will be hit hardest, since they are both the most vulnerable and have the poorest possibilities for adaptation. Necessary action to reduce emissions of greenhouse gasses affects all society's sectors for many years and will in the developing countries conflict with a justified wish for economic development.

The IPCC stabilisation scenarios

Partly as a result of the Brundtland Report on environment and development, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) established the so-called Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988. IPPC has i.a. investigated the goal that the atmospheric content of carbon dioxide and other climate gasses shall be stabilised at a level twice the level before the industrialisation accelerated in the beginning of the 19th century. In this scenario, the global impact will be acceptable, but certainly not without environmental problems. To achieve this goal, however, the global emissions - after an almost unavoidable increase for some decades, must be halved compared to the present level before 2100, and then in the following decades be further reduced. And that must be accomplished simultaneously with a situation where the world population probably doubles, and the developing countries will increase their material standard of living. Thus a goal that is significantly more ambitious and farsighted than that of the Brundtland Commission. On a per capita basis this will require much more extensive reduction of emissions in countries like Denmark. This may not be technically impossible, but, politically, a great challenge.

Only very limited Danish areas are virgin nature, and the large fraction of this is found along the coast. In warmer climate with rising sea level, low lying areas that are comprised by the EU birds directive will be threatened.

The Climate Convention

After a series of preparatory meetings the UN organised in 1992 in Rio de Janeiro a world conference on environment and development. Here 155 parties signed a framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC). It aims at a stabilisation of the concentration of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. The ultimate objective is quoted in the margin.

The convention thus expresses a general intention and recognises that climate changes cannot be avoided completely. What will then be considered an acceptable combination of "dangerous, "sufficient" and "sustainable" will depend upon political considerations.

Between politics and science

The convention came into force in 1994, and subsequently a series of meetings have taken place with the signatories in the COP (Conference of the Parties). The third and so far most important conference took place under great public attention in Kyoto, Japan, in December 1997. It was concluded with the adoption of a protocol, applying to carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O) and hydrofluoric carbons (HFC), perfluoro carbons (PFC) and sulphur hexa fluoride (SF₆). Freon compounds that are both greenhouse gasses and ozonedepleting substances, were not considered, because they are already regulated in the Montreal Protocol.

The targets of the Kyoto Protocol

With respect to specific emission reductions, however, only modest results were obtained. The industrialised countries, including Russia and Eastern Europe, must - together - reduce their total emissions of greenhouse gasses - expressed as CO₂ - by 5.2% in the period 2008-2012 compared to 1990 levels. A few countries were permitted directly to increase their emissions. These modest reductions have later been undermined, i.a. it has been permitted to set off emissions against sinks for carbon dioxide, i.a. forestation. Further, since some countries, including the US, are not likely to participate, it is very doubtful whether the target will be reached.

On the average the EU countries must reduce their emissions of greenhouse gasses by 8%. In the subsequent distribution of reduction figures, Denmark accepted to reduce emissions by 21%. In 2002 a regulation was issued limiting the use of the potent greenhouse gasses HFC, PFC and SF₆. However, in practice the total contribution is modest. In 2003 the Danish Government will consequently present a number of concrete proposals on tools to be used to reach the reduction target for the most important greenhouse gasses - especially carbon dioxide. This will in the years to come be Denmark's greatest environmental challenge.

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