|
Ozone depleting substances and the greenhouse gases HFCs, PFCs and SF6 2 Introduction
On behalf of the Danish Environmental Protection Agency, COWI has conducted an assessment of the Danish consumption and emissions of ozone-depleting substances and the greenhouse gases HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 for 2001. The evaluation survey has been carried out in continuation of previous assessments, refer to /13/ and references in this report. The report provides an evaluation of the actual emissions of HFCs, PFCs, and SF6. This method of determination was first used in the 1998 evaluation /2/. The determination of the actual emissions takes into account the emissions from stock contained in products and adjustments have been made for the import and export of the substances contained in products. In 2001, the method of determination underwent further development and now defines Danish emission factors for certain primary areas of application such as commercial refrigerators and mobile refrigerator units. In order to ensure consistency of the determination, the new basis of determination has been used in the 2001 evaluation for all historical data back to 1990. The report has been prepared partly to enable Denmark to fulfil its international obligations to provide statistics in the area and partly to follow the trend in consumption of ozone-depleting substances and emissions of HFCs, PFCs, and SF6. A report on Danish emissions is given in reference /18/ as an example on the reporting as part of international obligations. The ozone-depleting substances regulated in the Montreal Protocol are depleting the earth’s protective ozone layer at a much greater rate than natural processes reproduce ozone. This is disturbing the natural balance and leading to an increase in dangerous ultraviolet radiation. The depletion is dependent on the different depleting potentials of specific substances - ODP values (Ozone-depleting Potential). Greenhouse gases cause an increase in the ability of the atmosphere to retain heat radiated from the earth. Consequently the temperature of the earth’s surface rises and this can lead to climate changes. There are several ozone-depleting substances that also have a strong greenhouse effect. The potential effect of different greenhouse gases varies from substance to substance. This potential is expressed by a GWP value (Global Warming Potential). The so-called ‘pure’ greenhouse gases that do not have an ozone-depleting effect, but which have high GWP values (HFCs, PFCs and SF6) are regulated in the Kyoto Protocol under the Climate Change Convention. The Danish Environmental Protection Agency has published a booklet on the ozone layer and the greenhouse effect /5/, and in cooperation with the other Nordic countries the Agency has published a booklet on the protection of the ozone layer – Nordic Perspective /6/. The Danish Environmental Protection Agency has also published a report on substitutes for the greenhouse gases HFCs, PFCs and SF6 /10/. 2.1 Monitoring GroupThe project has been overseen by a monitoring group which has reviewed the results of the assessment. The monitoring group consisted of:
2.2 ObjectiveThe objective of the project is to evaluate the 2001 consumption of recently produced ozone-depleting substances and the consumption and the actual emission of the greenhouse gases HFCs, PFCs, and SF6. The evaluation has been made partly in accordance with the IPCC guidelines, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change /4/, and partly following the methods employed in previous evaluations. In Appendix 1, Tables 1.a and 1.b show the ozone-depleting substances regulated in the Montreal Protocol, their chemical formulas and ODP values (Ozone-depleting Potential), and the ‘pure’ potent greenhouse gases covered by the Kyoto Protocol under the Climate Change Convention, and their chemical formulas and GWP values (Global Warming Potential). 2.3 Scope and definitionOzone-depleting substances This evaluation survey covers the net consumption of ozone-depleting substances. The term net consumption is understood as the amount of imported goods in bulk or drums, not counting any re-export of substances as raw materials. Ozone-depleting substances contained in finished products that are imported and exported are not included in the evaluation. This delimitation is in full compliance with international guidelines. The evaluation does not account for the consumption of ozone-depleting substances as raw material used in the production of other substances, such as tetrachloromethane, which are not subsequently emitted to the atmosphere. The information on consumption has been gathered from importers, suppliers and user enterprises (usually the purchasing departments), and Statistics Denmark. The method of data gathering used ensures that the information collected corresponds to the quantities of substances that are traded. The purchase and sales figures are utilised in this evaluation as an expression synonymous with the level of consumption. This approach is considered to be suitable and adequate for the present purpose, since experience from previous projects shows that a levelling out occurs with time and the substances sold/bought are consumed within a relatively small time horizon. None of the substances covered here are produced in Denmark. Furthermore, ozone-depleting substances in Denmark are transported for treatment at chemical waste processing plants in Denmark. This data is included in the evaluation, but is not offset in the consumption figures, as was the case in all previous surveys. Greenhouse gases The evaluation of the actual emissions of the greenhouse gases HFCs, PFCs and SF6 has been carried out in continuation of foregoing assessments which have become increasingly more accurate as advances have been made in internationally approved guidelines (IPCC Guidelines) and the ability to gather more detailed data. The evaluation of actual emissions includes the quantification and determination of any import and export of HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 contained in products, and takes into account the substances in stock form. This is in accordance with the latest and most accurate method of determination (Tier 2) among the available methods provided in the IPCC Guidelines /4/. 2.4 MethodsConsumption and emissions The evaluation of consumption and determination of emissions and stock have been carried out based on information from six sources:
Information for evaluation is firstly gathered by means of a questionnaire survey. The responses to the questionnaires are supplemented where necessary with information gathered by telephone. The results of the project are primarily based on the information received from enterprise and importer respondents etc. The information gathered from importers and suppliers is recorded with information on consumer enterprises in order to monitor any disagreements between purchase and sales information and application of the substances. In some cases the application of individual substances can be estimated on the basis of two sources, given that the majority of the consuming enterprises are known. In cases where not all the user enterprises specify the application of substances, the consumption of individual substances is estimated from the information provided by importers, suppliers, and any industry-related organisations, such as the Danish Refrigeration Installers’ Environmental Scheme (KMO). Occasionally there are disagreements in the information provided by suppliers and user enterprises. This is partly due to imports from other EU countries, changes in stocks of substances, or a lack of correspondence between the quantities sold and consumed. It can also be due to a degree of uncertainty in the method of determination used by enterprises. Sales and consumption information has been harmonised. The average degree of uncertainty in the report’s consumption figures (sold and bought quantities) is estimated at approx. 10-15%, and slightly greater for data regarding the areas of application. The degree of uncertainty in the determination of actual emissions is estimated at 20-25% depending on import/export information on the actual products. The evaluation has been conducted using two different methods /2/:
The ozone-depleting substances are not included in the determinations of emissions of greenhouse gases, since ozone-depleting substances are regulated by the Montreal Protocol. When evaluating the emission of ozone-depleting substances, the net consumption is considered equivalent to the potential emission. Thus: Potential emission = import + production - export - destruction/treatment. The evaluation of greenhouse gas emissions is based on a calculation of the actual emission. The actual emission is the emission in the evaluation year, accounting for the time lapse between consumption and emission. The actual emission includes Danish emissions from production, from products during their lifetimes, and from waste products. The actual emissions for the specific areas of application are determined on the grounds of the following analyses: Tier 2 – Top-down analysis. In the Tier 2 – top-down analysis the emission is determined on the basis of information on consumption in the various areas of application and calculated or estimated emissions in the area of application (emission factors). Tier 2 – Bottom-up analysis. In the bottom-up analysis an estimation is made of the emission from a specific application area based on information from producers using substances in production and products; information on import and export of products; information on the technological developments within the application areas; information on the average amount of greenhouse gases contained in products; and information on the lifetime of products and the actual emission during the consumption phase and disposal phase. The Tier 2 – Bottom-up analysis was first employed in the evaluation of emissions from HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 in 1998, and it covered the following activities /2/:
The results from this analysis are built on further in the evaluation of the actual emissions for the present year. Consumption and emissions of greenhouse gases are wherever possible carried out for individual substances, even though the consumption of certain HFCs has been very limited. This has been done to ensure transparency of evaluation in the determination of GWP values. However, the continued use of a category for "Other HFCs" has been necessary since not all importers and suppliers have specified records of sales for individual substances. Uncertainty varies from substance to substance. Uncertainty is greatest for HFC-134a due to its widespread application in products that are imported and exported. The greatest uncertainty in the distribution of substances in the areas of application is judged to arise from the consumption of HFC-404a and HFC-134a in commercial refrigerators and mobile refrigerators. The distribution is significant in the differences in the emission determinations in the short term (approx. five years), but balances out in the long term. This is because the distribution is only significant for the rate at which emissions are released. Appendix 5 shows an overview of all the application areas evaluated with descriptions of the bases of determination. 2.5 Explanation of terminologyThe following terms and abbreviations are used throughout this report.
|
