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Fuel use and emissions from non-road machinery in Denmark from 1985-2004 - and projections from 2005-2030

6 Projections 2005-2030

To provide stock data for the projection period 2005-2030 for tractors, harvesters and fork lifts the new sales figures per engine size for the year 2004 has been used for 2005 onwards as an assumption. The general lifetimes listed in Chapter 3 and historical stock data has subsequently been used to determine the total stock numbers per engine size, and numbers per new sales year and engine size for each year in the projection period.

For the remaining non road machinery types the 2004 machinery stock has been used also for future years. By assuming the same percentage share of the stock total for all new sales year present in the stock, the number-new sales year (and hence emission level) distribution can be established in any given forecast year.

The main driver for changes in the future as compard with the present emission level will therefore be the changes in emission factors. Changes in emission factors result from strengthened legislation with regard to emission standards.

The stock data behind the 2005-2030 fuel use and emission projections are shown in Annex 3. The 2005-2030 fuel use and emission results are given in CollectER format (agriculture, forestry, industry, household and gardening and inland waterways) together with fuel related emission factors.

6.1 Fuel use and emissions

6.1.1 Agriculture

In Table 41 the fuel use and emission results for agriculture are shown for 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030, and as percentages of the 2004 results. In Annex 4 the 2005-2030 fuel use, emissions and fuel related emission factors are listed for tractors, harvesters, machine pool machinery types, other agriculture machinery (per fuel type) and ATV’s.

Table 41 Fuel use and emissions for agriculture in selected forecast years

Year Fuel SO2 NOx NMVOC CH4 CO CO2 N2O NH3 TSP
  [TJ] [tons] [tons] [tons] [tons] [tons] [ktons] [tons] [tons] [tons]
2010 13217 6 8085 1059 48 10509 978 41 3 640
2015 12607 6 5308 745 43 9439 933 40 3 362
2020 12438 6 3300 602 40 8742 920 40 3 179
2025 12504 6 2080 544 39 8423 925 40 3 117
2030 12376 6 1151 477 38 8113 916 40 3 69
2010 (% of 2004) 96 2 68 63 77 70 96 98 98 64
2015 (% of 2004) 92 2 45 45 69 63 92 94 95 36
2020 (% of 2004) 90 2 28 36 65 58 90 93 94 18
2025 (% of 2004) 91 2 18 33 63 56 91 94 95 12
2030 (% of 2004) 90 2 10 29 62 54 90 93 94 7

The figures in Table 41 and the curves on Figure 35 show a fuel use and emission decrease from 2004-2030. For TSP, NOx, NMVOC and CO this is due to the gradually strengthened emission legislation standards (see also Figure 36, tractors as an example). In this way the 2030 emissions become only 7, 10, 29 and 54 of the emission level in 2004. For fuel use, the total decrease is due to the decrease in tractor numbers and fuel efficiency improvements which all in all have a greater fuel use impact than the general engine size increase. The remarkable decrease in SO2 emissions is due to the lowering of the sulphur percentage in the fuel from 500 to 10 ppm in 2005.

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Figure 35 2005-2030 fuel use and emissions for agriculture

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Figure 36 2005-2030 fuel use and emissions for diesel tractors per emission level

6.1.2 Forestry

Table 42 shows the 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030 fuel use and emission results for forestry, together with the calculated percentages of the 2004 results. In Annex 4 the 2005-2030 fuel use, emissions and fuel related emission factors are listed for diesel and gasoline fuelled machinery, respectively.

Table 42 Fuel use and emissions for forestry in selected forecast years

Year Fuel SO2 NOx NMVOC CH4 CO CO2 N2O NH3 TSP
  [TJ] [tons] [tons] [tons] [tons] [tons] [ktons] [tons] [tons] [tons]
2010 230 0 70 366 3 1295 17 1 0 10
2015 228 0 42 281 2 1285 17 1 0 8
2020 228 0 19 281 2 1280 17 1 0 7
2025 228 0 13 280 2 1280 17 1 0 6
2030 228 0 12 280 2 1280 17 1 0 6
2010 (% of 2004) 97 3 52 72 70 100 97 100 100 78
2015 (% of 2004) 96 3 31 55 52 100 96 100 100 62
2020 (% of 2004) 96 3 14 55 52 99 96 100 100 51
2025 (% of 2004) 96 3 10 55 52 99 96 100 100 49
2030 (% of 2004) 96 3 9 55 52 99 96 100 100 49

The impact on total NMVOC, CO and TSP emissions due to the emission reductions for tractors, harvesters and other diesel fuelled machinery are to some extend compensated for by the emission development for chain saws. The latter types of machinery have a relatively large gasoline fuel use. For forestry as a total, the largest emission decreases are calculated for SO2, NOx and TSP. Their respective emission levels in 2030 are 3, 9 and 49% of the 2004 levels.

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Figure 37 2005-2030 fuel use and emissions for forestry

6.1.3 Industry

Table 43 shows the 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030 fuel use and emission results and calculated percentages of the 2004 results for non road machinery in industry. In Annex 4 the 2005-2030 fuel use, emissions and fuel related emission factors are listed for fork lifts (per fuel type) and for construction machinery.

Table 43 Fuel use and emissions for industry in selected forecast years

Year Fuel SO2 NOx NMVOC CH4 CO CO2 N2O NH3 TSP
  [TJ] [tons] [tons] [tons] [tons] [tons] [ktons] [tons] [tons] [tons]
2010 12336 5 7733 1124 37 6047 904 38 2 643
2015 12304 5 6218 922 33 5572 902 38 2 471
2020 12037 5 4845 773 30 4979 883 38 2 315
2025 11923 5 4156 734 29 4809 875 38 2 273
2030 11884 5 4077 719 29 4717 872 38 2 257
2010 (% of 2004) 99 2 72 67 80 80 99 99 99 62
2015 (% of 2004) 99 2 58 55 72 73 99 99 99 45
2020 (% of 2004) 97 2 45 46 65 66 97 98 98 30
2025 (% of 2004) 96 2 39 44 64 63 96 97 97 26
2030 (% of 2004) 95 2 38 43 63 62 96 97 97 25

The impact on total NMVOC, CO and TSP emissions coming from the generally large emission decreases for diesel fuelled machinery (construction machinery, fork lifts, other types) are to some extend compensated for by the emission development for LPG fuelled fork lifts. For industry as a total, the largest 2004-2030 emission decreases are 98, 75 and 62% for SO2, TSP and NOx.

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Figure 38 2005-2030 fuel use and emissions for industry

6.1.4 Household and gardening

Table 44 shows the 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030 fuel use and emission results and calculated percentages of the 2004 results for household and gardening workg machines. In Annex 4 the 2005-2030 fuel use, emissions and fuel related emission factors are listed for 2-stroke and 4-stroke gasoline engines, respectively.

Table 44 Fuel use and emissions for household and gardening in selected forecast years

Year Fuel SO2 NOx NMVOC CH4 CO CO2 N2O NH3 TSP
  [TJ] [tons] [tons] [tons] [tons] [tons] [ktons] [tons] [tons] [tons]
2010 3974 2 367 6976 278 123951 290 5 0 89
2015 3934 2 377 5845 259 127421 287 5 0 90
2020 3928 2 377 5721 258 128134 287 5 0 90
2025 3928 2 377 5721 258 128134 287 5 0 90
2030 3928 2 377 5721 258 128134 287 5 0 90
2010 (% of 2004) 97 19 116 80 96 109 97 100 100 102
2015 (% of 2004) 96 19 119 67 89 112 96 100 100 103
2020 (% of 2004) 96 19 119 66 89 112 96 100 100 103
2025 (% of 2004) 96 19 119 66 89 112 96 100 100 103
2030 (% of 2004) 96 19 119 66 89 112 96 100 100 103

For household and gardening equipment, the largest emission declines are calculated for SO2, NMVOC and CH4; the 2004-2030 emission decreases are 81, 34 and 11%, respectively. For NOx, CO and TSP, the emissions increase by 19, 12 and 3% in the same time period, mainly driven by the emission developments for lawn movers and cultivators (due to their specific emission deterioration patterns). Figure 39 shows the 2005-2030 fuel use and emission curves for the different types of household and gardening equipment.

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Figure 39 2005-2030 fuel use and emissions for household and gardening

In Figure 40 the emission level specific fuel use and emission curves for 2-stroke and 4-stroke engines are shown for the 2005-2030 forecast period. A complete shift to engines complying with the stage II emission legislation levels is finalised in 2017 and 2018, for 2-stroke and 4-stroke engines respectively.

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Figure 40 2005-2030 time series of fuel use and emissions per emission level for 2-stroke and 4-stroke household and gardening equipment

6.1.5 Inland waterways

Table 45 shows the 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030 fuel use and emission results and calculated percentages of the 2004 results for recreational craft. In Annex 4 the 2005-2030 fuel use, emissions and fuel related emission factors are listed for diesel engines, and 2-stroke and 4-stroke gasoline engines, respectively.

Table 45 Fuel use and emissions for recreational craft in selected forecast years

Year FC SO2 NOx NMVOC CH4 CO CO2 N2O NH3 TSP
  [TJ] [tons] [tons] [tons] [tons] [tons] [ktons] [tons] [tons] [tons]
2010 1348 94 1022 567 24 4985 99 3 0 111
2015 1330 94 986 370 24 3039 98 4 0 93
2020 1330 94 943 360 24 3030 98 4 0 86
2025 1330 94 943 360 24 3030 98 4 0 86
2030 1330 94 943 360 24 3030 98 4 0 86
2010 (% of 2004) 96 99 98 48 98 73 96 102 100 72
2015 (% of 2004) 95 99 95 31 96 44 95 103 100 61
2020 (% of 2004) 95 99 91 30 96 44 95 103 100 56
2025 (% of 2004) 95 99 91 30 96 44 95 103 100 56
2030 (% of 2004) 95 99 91 30 96 44 95 103 100 56

The contemporary phase-out of 2-stroke engines and phase-in of 4-stroke engines, finalised in 2015, is clearly visible from the fuel use and emission curves shown in Figure 41. However, in spite of the increased use of 4-stroke engines for small boats, the emissions of CO decrease significantly for this motor type. This is due to markedly lower emission factors for engines complying with the EU 2003/44 emission directive compared with the conventional ones. For the same reason the NOx and TSP emissions decline for diesel engines.

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Figure 41 2005-2030 time series of fuel use and emissions for recreational craft

 

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Version 1.0 June 2006, © Danish Environmental Protection Agency