Reduktion af biltransportens miljøbelastning med faktor 4 og faktor 10 English summary
This report consists of a case-study within the factor 4/10 concept. Factor 4/10 is short for a policy goal of reducing the resource consumption and the environmental impact from various socio-economic activities, by factors of 4 and 10 respectively. The factor 4/10 concept has been launched by among others the Wuppertal Institute in Germany, and it has been suggested as a possible framework for sustainability studies in the developed countries at the United Nations UNGASS (Rio +5) summit in 1997. In this case-study the activity in question is car transport in Denmark. The
environmental issues in this study are mainly limited to overall material
consumption, energy use and The study has an explorative character, as the concepts are new and no scientific methods were readily available to assess the potentials or consequences of such major, long terms reductions in environmental impact from transport. Chapter 2 is devoted to discuss and specify how to interpret the concepts of eco-efficiency and factor 4/10, when relating to a specific sector such as transport. The main problems are,
For this study the following interpretations and delimitations are chosen:
Factor 4/10 is interpreted as absolute reductions in material consumption,
energy use and Chapter 3 establishes the quantitative data for comparison of today's transport with the long term targets. Transport and passenger kilometers of transport and modal spilt are described and transport related material consumption, energy use and emissions, are calculated as related to production, use and disposal of cars, roads and fuels. Chapter 4 analyse a number of theoretical potentials for
reducing material consumption, energy use and emissions of
The study shows that none of the potentials analysed will suffice to reduce
the overall material consumption, energy use and Not even the combination of all 4 types of potential will do the trick. This is the case even if e.g. 50% of cars in 2050 are assumed to be efficient electric vehicles, supplied mostly by "alternative" low impact energy sources such as wind and sun. The table below shows some of the results, presented as "factor-reductions" compared with today (1995). Factor-reductions calculated as the ration between today's use of
materials energy and
So, in order to achieve the targets, considerable changes would have to be made in the role and function of car traffic in everyday life. This would include a reduction in the number of cars available and in the kilometers driven pr year pr person. Such changes are not likely to occur without significant changes in individual and social values as well as regulatory regimes. In chapter 5 a number of options to stimulate changes towards factor 4/10 reduction are discussed, as well as a number of important barriers to change. Changes will in any case have to involve a large number of actors and groups, as transport is important for so many aspects of society. This makes it very difficult to orchestrate changes in the necessary scale. The authorities do in principle have a number of powerful policy options available which may help to accomplish changes, including fiscal, technical and organisational measures. However, a process of social change towards factor 4/10 reduction in transport cannot be achieved only through "top-down" application of policy measures. This is because the targets are controversial and seemingly at odds with several other private and social goals (mobility, freedom, economic growth etc.) Therefore, measures to encourage processes of "bottom-up"-changes will also have to be adopted, including processes involving development of new forms of technology, life organisation and travel patterns, social experiments, learning and innovation, and subsequent changes of values. Also changes outside the transport sector would be necessary to achieve the factor 4/10 targets (e.g. tax reforms and other economic policy changes) A number of policy options are discussed in terms of expected positive, negative and auxiliary impacts, but it is not at this point possible to design a package which will achieve the targets at lowest costs to society. As a first step three different types of policy measures may be considered, as they may help initiate changes without seriously compromising other social goals. Such measures could include: 1. Measures that put a brake on unsustainable trends, such as
2. Measures that fertilise the ground for changes, such as
3. Measures that pave the way for longer term changes
In chapter 6 some conclusions are drawn. Absolute reductions of materiel consumption, energy use and Achieving the targets is however not entirely unthinkable. It may be
possible if major changes takes place,
Using factor 4/10 targets for explorative analysis, as in this case, can provide valuable information about options and limitations of different partial solutions. However, especially the material consumption target should be evaluated further, as the data are insufficient, and the idea of aggregating all material components into one measure could be questioned. More detailed analysis will be required to assess fully the environmental,
economic and social implications of achieving the factor 4/10 reductions.
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