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Denmark´s Second National Communication on Climate Change

Foreword

Since the first Danish National Communication to the Climate Convention, two major events have taken place. In March 1995 the Conference of the Parties decided to launch negotiations on a protocol to the UNFCCC, with the objective of strengthening the commitment of the industrialised countries regarding emissions of greenhouse gases. Secondly, in December 1995 the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, approved its Second Assessment Report.

In my view one of the most important new findings of the IPCC is that "The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate". In other words, the panel concludes that it cannot be excluded that the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have reached levels which are likely to destabilise the climate systems of the globe - destabilisation followed by climatic changes and rising sea level.

As stated in this Second National Communication Denmark is not likely to experience great climate changes in the next decade. If we take stock of the situation in due time the incremental costs for the Danish society will be limited. On the other hand we recognise that in other parts of the world, the impacts of climate change and rising sea level could be crucial for the existence or the well-being of other countries and people. It is necessary in the longer term to limit and reduce global emissions of greenhouse gases, in order to prevent the development of "environmental" fugitives and the related economic and political instability.

It is our hope that in negotiations on the protocol to strengthen the commitments of the UNFCCC, the industrialised countries will assume the necessary leadership and agree on substantial reductions of emissions of greenhouse gases. We believe that such commitments are crucial to limit and reduce global emissions on a longer term.

Denmark has taken up the challenge. Already in April 1990, following the debate on the new Energy Action Plan, the Danish Parliament decided to reduce emissions of CO₂ from the energy and transport sectors by 20% in 2005 compared to 1988. The action plans have been revised regularly to secure fulfilment of the target. And in April 1996 - debating an Action Plan for the years 2005-2030 - the Danish Parliament urged the government in negotiations up to Kyoto to strive for a 50% reduction of CO₂ emissions from industrialised countries in 2030 compared to 1990.

The most promising sign in the development of Danish CO₂ emissions is that, looking at emissions for the period 1991 - 1995, there are some indications of a reduction by 3-4%, if the figures are filtered for variations in both electricity exchange and temperature.

One of the more important measures to fulfil the short and long term reductions was the confirmation by Parliament in May 1997 of my decision to prohibit new coal-fired power plants.

As regards the other natural greenhouse gases, CH₄ emissions are expected to stabilise and N₂O emissions are expected to decrease in 2010 if no other measures are imposed. As to the fluorocarbons the use of HFCs in the refrigerating and freezing industry is expected to be phased out before 2006.

It is my hope that this report will demonstrate the willingness of the Danish Government to take the threat of global warming seriously and to implement the measures required.

Svend Auken

Minister for Environment and Energy

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