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Denmark´s Second National Communication on Climate Change

1. Executive summary

1.1 National circumstances
1.2 Inventories of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and removals
1.3 Policies and measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
1.4 Projections and assessment of measures
1.5 Expected impacts of climate change and vulnerability assessment
1.6 Adaptation measures
1.7 Financial assistance and technology transfer
1.8 Research and systematic observation
1.9 Education, training and public awareness

1.1 National circumstances

National circumstances, Denmark

The population of Denmark amounts to nearly 5.2 million inhabitants and the total area to 43,000 km².

Of the total Danish area, 64% is agricultural land, 10% is forest and 10% is natural areas such as moors, marsh, bogs, lakes and streams. The Danish lakes comprise less than 1% of the total area, and the largest lake is 39 km². The built-up areas (urban areas, summer residence areas, traffic infrastructure etc. ) occupy about 15%.

The Danish climate is mildly temperate with precipitation falling throughout the year. The annual mean temperature is 7.7° C, and the annual precipitation is in average 712 mm.

The Danish Gross Domestic Product amounted to USD 172,741 million (in 1995 current market prices), corresponding to a per capita income of USD 33,042, giving Denmark one of the highest per capita incomes in the world.

Agriculture, forestry and fishery acount for 3.8% of the total GDP, manufacturing 20.1% and services, including Government services, 69.4%.

Energy

Denmark's main indigenous resources of energy, apart from renewables, are the North Sea oil and natural gas fields.

The growth of oil and gas production combined with the decrease in oil demand has made Denmark a net exporter of both oil and gas since 1993.

According to the latest short-term prognosis, oil and gas production will continue to increase in the near-term, but will decline after the turn of the century if new fields are not discovered.

Primary energy consumption increased rapidly in the 1960s, but essentially stabilised at a level of 800 PJ from 1972 to 1995 as a result of the two oil crises and the implementation of rigorous energy policy instruments during the last 20 years.

As a result of the oil crises, oil was substituted by coal at power and heat plants. The decline in the use of oil is also due to energy savings and changes in consumption patterns and the supply system, e.g. the introduction of combined heat and power.

In 1995, source apportionment of the total primary energy consumption of 808 PJ was coal: 30%, natural gas:16%, oil products: 47% and renewables: 7%.

Energy and CO₂ taxes have been implemented on fossil fuels and electricity, especially in the household sector, and the ensuing energy savings in this sector are a strong indication of the efficiency of high energy prices as an instrument to lower energy consumption.

Final energy consumption shows the same pattern of stabilisation since 1972 as primary energy consumption, remaining at a level of approx. 600 PJ per year.

Transport

In Denmark the number of passenger cars increased by 55% from l970 to 1995. At the same time, there has been an increase in individual passenger transport of 84% from 33,400 million person-km to 61,500 million person-km. Transport of goods by road has increased by 40% from 7,800 million tonnes-km in 1970 to 10,900 million tonnes-km in 1995.

1.2 Inventories of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and removals

Emissions and uptake

The basis for the calculation of greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector is primary energy consumption and emission factors. For the other sectors activity data and estimated national emission factors are used.

The inventory is based on the software and the methodologies developed by the EU and known as the CORINAIR database system. In general, the CORINAIR inventory is transformed in accordance with the 1995-IPCC Guidelines. The Revised 1996-IPCC guidelines have supplementarily been applied to N₂O from agriculture and the pollutants not earlier included (SO₂, HFCs, CFCs and SF₆). In Table 1.1 a short summary is shown.

Table 1.1. Danish CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, NO_x, CO, NMVOC, SO₂, HFCs, PFCs, and SF₆ emissions 1990 - 1995 in Gg.

Carbon dioxide, CO₂

The development in total Danish CO₂ emissions 1990 - 95 corrected for both electricity exchange and outside temperature variations indicates a slight negative trend from 1991.

The main sources for CO₂ emissions are power plants and transport, with a share of 53% and 19% respectively in 1995.

The corrected figures reflect CO₂ emissions corresponding to Danish energy consumption under normal meteorological conditions. Thus, when comparing Danish emission figures from year to year to get an impression of the effect of the implemented measures to reduce CO₂ emissions it is necessary to use the corrected figures. These should also be applied when assessing compliance with emission reduction targets under the UNFCCC, etc.

CO₂ sinks

The Danish Parliament has decided that during a period of rotation, e.g. 80 - 100 years, the forest area should be doubled. This decision implies an afforestation rate of about 40 km²/year, corresponding - at its highest level - to a CO₂ fixation rate of approx. 3,500 Gg CO₂ per year or approx. 5% of present annual anthropogenic emissions in Denmark. The sequestration of CO₂ is not included in the national totals.

Methane, CH₄

Total Danish anthropogenic emissions of CH₄ amounted to 430 Gg in 1995. The dominant sources were animal waste and enteric fermentation in the agricultural sector, which accounted for 327 Gg in 1995 with no clear trend from 1990.

Nitrous oxide, N₂O

Anthropogenic emissions of nitrous oxide almost completely derived from the agricultural sector, which accounts for more than 90% of a yearly emission of 33-34 Gg determined by using emission factors from the new IPCC manual.

N₂O - decrease

Due to the impact of the Danish Action Plan for a Sustainable Agricultural Development, the consumption of commercial fertiliser decreased by 25% from 1990 to 1996. This decrease is reflected in the emission figures for the period 1990 - 95.

Secondary substances (NO_x, CO, NMVOC and SO_2,)

The trend in the period 1990 - 95 in emissions of secondary substances such as nitrogen oxides (NO_x), carbon monoxide (CO), non methane volatile organic substances (NMVOC) and sulphur dioxide (SO_2,) has been negative since 1991. Emissions of NO_x and NMVOC are regulated within the Geneva Convention. Emissions in 1995 are estimated at 254 Gg and 162 Gg respectively. Emissions of CO are estimated at 701 Gg in 1995. Emissions of SO_2,are estimated at 150 Gg in 1995.

HFCs, PFCs and SF₆

The consumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) increased in line with the replacement of CFCs (0.750 Gg in 1995 with emissions estimated at 0.197 Gg), while the consumption of sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆) remained largely unchanged) (0.017 Gg in 1995 with emission estimated at 0.009 Gg). The consumption of perfluorocarbons (PFCs) in the period 1990 - 95 was negligible.

1.3 Policies and measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions

National programmes

Danish policies regarding limitation of greenhouse -relevant gases are rooted in many years of active national policies on energy and environment.>

The first national energy plan from 1976 together with further development of the policies during the 1980's resulted in a major restructuring of the energy system in Denmark.

As a result, total primary energy consumption has essentially stabilized despite substantial growth in all economic sectors. In parallel with this the environmental impact of the use of energy has decreased substantially as a direct result of the changes in the energy system, as well as introduction of emission standards, emission quotas and other regulations.

In the late 1980's, focus gradually shifted from supply security considerations, minimization of energy service costs, and local environmental effects, to wider environmental considerations, notably the goal of achieving long-term sustainable development on a national as well as a global level. In 1988, the Danish Government presented its Action Plan on Environment and Development as a follow-up of the recommendations set forth in the report from the World Commission on Environment and Development, the Brundtland Report.

In 1990, two action plans relating to energy and transport were presented to Parliament. In these plans, reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, notably carbon dioxide, was introduced as explicit targets.

In 1992, the objectives of Danish waste policy were described in the Danish Government's Action Plan for Waste and Recycling 1993 - 97. These included minimization of deposition of organic material in landfills and energy saving through recycling. A consequence of the plan will be a reduction of emissions of methane from landfill sites.

The 1990 Energy Action Plan

In the Energy Action Plan, the Government listed a number of new initiatives aimed at reducing CO₂ emissions for the whole energy sector, excluding transport, by 28% in 2005 as compared to 1988 levels. The Plan received broad political backing from Parliament.

Strategically, the Energy Action Plan emphasized efficiency improvements in end use, especially in the use of electricity, and increased efficiency of the energy supply systems, notably increased use of combined heat and power as well as shifting to cleaner energy sources (natural gas and renewables).

The 1990 Transport Action Plan

The Transport Action Plan, adopted by the Government in May 1990, aimed to stabilize CO₂ emissions from the transport sector by 2005, and to achieve a 25% reduction by 2030 as compared to 1988 levels.

The combined effects of the two action plans were foreseen to be a more than 20% reduction of CO₂ emissions in 2005, as compared to the base year of the two plans (1988). This target was subsequently approved by Parliament.

Apart from this national CO₂ reduction target, Denmark has committed itself to stabilizing emissions of greenhouse gases at the 1990 level by 2000 within the framework of the Climate Convention. Moreover, as a contribution to the overall stabilization of CO₂ emissions from EU countries by the year 2000, Denmark is also committed to achieving a 5 % reduction by 2000 as compared to the 1990 level.

In 1993, a major follow-up of the two action plans was undertaken (Follow-up on Energy 2000 and Transport 2005) in order to secure achievement of the above targets.

In 1995, a discussion paper, Denmark's Energy Futures, containing technical analyses of future scenarios for energy consumption and supply in Denmark, was published. At the same time, the Government presented a general Nature and Environment Policy giving an overview of the Danish efforts for protection of the environment. This was based on the principles of sustainable development and ecological space.

The recent energy action plan, Energy 21, approved by the Danish Parliament in April 1996, deals with international market conditions and long-term environmental aspects, as the overall challenges to the energy sector. The major environmental challenge is to achieve convergence of emissions of industrialised countries to a level that would be globally sustainable. Without such a convergence the prospects for expecting the rest of the world to respect the limits of global environmental space will be very meagre.

In connection with the approval of the action plan, the Government decided to work for an international agreement on a 50% reduction of CO₂ emissions from industrialised countries by 2030, compared with 1990 levels. Energy 21 consequently aims at fulfilling this goal. Such an agreement could be consistent with a global scenario that achieves stabilisation of CO₂ concentration at 450 ppmv.

In 1997, the Government banned new or renovated power capacity based on coal. Power generated by coal will consequently be phased out as coal based plants wear out. This decision confirms the determination to meet reduction targets in the shorter term and the long term aim of achieving a sustainable energy supply.

1.4 Projections and assessment of measures

Energy

As part of the energy action plan, Energy 21, future Danish energy consumption and CO₂ emissions related to this consumption have been assessed for the period 1995 - 2030.

The development in energy consumption and CO₂ emissions described in this section is based on Energy 21 although the projections for 1995 have been replaced by actual figures.

The short term goal of Energy 21 is to reach the Danish Government's target of reducing CO₂ emissions from the energy-consuming sectors by 20% in 2005 as compared to the 1988 level. A number of initiatives aiming at reaching this goal have therefore been implemented in the Danish energy policy.>

The assessment of the development for the period 2005 - 2030 is based on more general considerations, among others conservation of heat and electricity, use of energy efficient appliances and processes and use of renewable energy.

It is assumed that international common efforts during this period will contribute substantially to reducing Danish CO₂ emissions.

On the basis of key variables and assumed future developments, projections have been made of the total primary energy consumption for the period 1996 to 2030.

The expected CO₂ emissions related to the energy consumption are shown in Fig. 1.1 which also shows the expected CO₂ emissions for a "Business-as-Usual" scenario, updated from the Energy 2000 Plan drawn up in 1990. This scenario illustrates how CO₂ emissions would have developed from 1990 if no steps had been taken in order to reduce the emissions. Emissions from international transport are not included in Fig. 1.1.

The values for the period 1990 to 1995 are historical data corrected for variations in space heating demand and electricity exchange due to climatic variations. For comparison, uncorrected values for this period are shown as well.

The long-term development in the period to 2030 is expected to result in gradually increasing electricity export from Denmark. This export is not due to climatic variations, but arises from the technical lay-out of the power production system, with increasing shares of cogeneration and wind energy. Since this export is not caused by climatic conditions, the projected CO₂ emissions are not corrected for this export.

Fig. 1.1. Planned development of CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion.

The national target of reducing CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion by 20% from 1988 to 2005 will be fulfilled by implementing the Energy 21 Action Plan, as the emissions covered by the target are projected to decrease slightly more. The targeted emissions include emissions from international air transport, while flaring is excluded. The target for 2005 as well as the base level of 1988 are defined in terms of emissions corrected for both electricity exchange and outdoor temperature variation.

As a contribution to the overall stabilisation of CO₂ emissions by the year 2000 for the EU countries, Denmark has committed itself to achieve a 5% reduction in 2000 compared with 1990.

The Danish CO₂ emissions are planned to decline from 59,958 Gg in 1990 (corrected for electricity exchange and outside temperature variation) to 54,309 Gg in 2000. This corresponds to a decrease of 9.4%, and the 5% target is therefore expected to be fulfilled. The CO₂ benefit of increasing the forest area has not been taken into account in these figures.

Transport

For the transport sector, the Government has prepared a transport action plan, the objectives of which are to stabilise the sector's CO₂ emissions at the 1988 level by 2005, and to reduce emissions by 25% before 2030. Use of energy efficient cars is one of the major contributors to the emission reduction within the transport sector, and development of such cars, internationally, is therefore of major importance.

The main aim of sustainable transport policy is to promote an efficient transport system to the benefit of the general public and industry, to ensure that the damaging effects of traffic, e.g. pollution and accidents, can be reduced to a minimum in accordance with specified objectives.

The target for CO₂ emissions in the transport sector should be seen in relation to the considerable importance attached to helping to solve local environmental problems, which to some extent entails measures which can actually increase CO₂ emissions, e.g. replacing diesel by petrol.

Waste

The main objectives in the field of waste and recycling are to reduce the quantity of waste arisings, to minimize the environmental impact of waste disposal, and to make use of the resources contained in waste.

Today total waste arisings amount to about 10 million tonnes per annum. The objective is that about 50% of the total amount of wastes generated in the year 2000 should be recycled. The remainder should primarily be incinerated, and landfilling should be minimized. One of the expected effects of the Plan is reducted CH₄ emissions from landfilling.

The aim is to incinerate all combustible wastes which are not to be recycled, and which do not present particular incineration problems. By incineration, the energy content in the waste will be used to replace fossil fuels.

In connection with incineration, the energy content of non-recyclable wastes should be used effectively like other biofuels, since most of the waste is CO₂-neutral and therefore causes lower CO₂ emissions than burning of fossil fuels.

Agriculture

In the projections, the expected reduction in CH₄ emissions gained from cows/cattle is largely offset by the increase in CH₄ emissions from pigs, and as regard N₂O, Danish initiatives to substantially reduce the use of particularly commercial fertiliser before 2000 are expected to reduce N₂O emissions from the agricultural sector.

A summary of the projections for CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O emissions is shown in Table 1.2.

Table 1.2. Projections of Danish CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O emissions 2000 - 30 in Gg compared to emissions in 1990.

1.5 Expected impacts of climate change and vulnerability assessment

Climate change in Denmark

According to the latest findings of the IPCC based on the "business as usual" emission scenario (IS92a) the global mean surface temperature is projected to increase by 2 °C by 2100, and sea level will rise 50 cm. For Denmark the annual mean temperature is projected to increase by almost 2 °C by 2050. Precipitation will increase in winter and decrease in summer. A sea level rise of 9 - 18 cm is projected, with the largest rise in the southern part of the country.

By the end of next century, the annual mean temperature in Denmark is projected to be 2.8 °C warmer than today. In contrast to earlier estimates, the annual mean precipitation is projected to decrease slightly. Sea level is projected to rise 33 - 46 cm.

With respect to agriculture, forestry and coastal protection, however, it can be assumed that the changes will be so modest that they will be manageable through planned adjustment supported by an expected technological development.

A possible exception is the present natural ecosystem, where climate change may be too rapid for some animal and plant species; this may cause temporary instability and in the long run change species composition.

Climate change in Greenland

Climate change in Greenland is predicted to cause an increase in the mean yearly temperature of between 1.8 - 3.6°C by the end of the next century.

The ice cap will respond to warming through increased melt rates at the margins and accumulation rates in the interior. Melt rates will probably dominate. However, precipitation and melt rate predictions are not as reliable as temperature predictions.

Precipitation is predicted to increase by 2 - 24 mm per month, with most of the increase in the summer on the south and west coast but in the winter or all year round on the east coast and at high latitudes. Half the change will occur within the next 40 - 50 years. Other consequences of climate change include: lengthening of the snow-free season by a month or more, a slight increase in the length of the growing season by 1 - 2 weeks, deepening of the soil active layer, and a shorter northward movement of the permafrost boundary.

There is considerable uncertainty regarding predictions for Southern Greenland, which has experienced a cooling of 1 - 1.6°C in the past 60 years. Ocean models predict a cold centre southwest of Greenland. The cooling effect around this centre will counteract and may even neutralise greenhouse warming in Southeast Greenland. This cooling may be related to the 80% reduction in deep water formation observed in the Greenland Sea during the 1980's. Hence, less warm Atlantic water is streaming north. The maximum temperature increase in South Greenland may therefore represent a return to the mean summer temperatures of 60 years ago, and the possibility of a temperature fall must be considered.

Near-future changes (10 - 20 years) in Greenland ecosystems are expected to be modest, particularly in the south, but later a number of different changes may occur.

Climate change in the Faroe Islands

In case of the Faroe Islands it is expected that the temperature increase, if any, will not exceed 1 - 2°C and that the changes in terrestrial ecosystems will be almost undetectable. At sea, temperature may further decrease and cause negative changes in edible fish stocks.

1.6 Adaptation measures

Since it is estimated that the direct effects of climate change in Denmark will be modest and in some cases provide a potential advantage, no adaptative measures have yet been taken. However, different possibilities have been investigated and discussed in national reports. For example a sea level rise of the order of 50 cm, which would augment present coastal retreat, could be be counteracted by coast nourishment. It should be noted that these considerations do not take into account "surprise changes in the global greenhouse", for example a change in the Gulf Stream.

1.7 Financial assistance and technology transfer

As a consequence of the increasingly global nature of environmental problems, Denmark has intensified action at the international level in recent years in order to meet global challenges.

The climate problem is to be seen in the context of a broader global challenge. The populations' use of the earth's store of natural resources is still increasing. Curbing these trends will require a coordinated international strategy.

The awareness of this global challenge and the transboundary nature of the environment problems were reflected in the Danish Government's 1988 Plan of Action for Environment and Development in Denmark's development assistance. As a consequence, a number of environmental sector strategies have been developed covering fisheries, energy, agriculture, forestry, agroforestry, water, health and industry.

The United Nations target of 0.7% of GDP in Overseas Development Aid (ODA) has long been fulfilled by Denmark, and the Danish Government has maintained ODA at 1% of GDP since 1992.

DANIDA and DANCED

Efforts to incorporate environmental objectives into the development assistance administered by DANIDA - the Danish International Development Assistance - were further strengthened during preparation for and follow-up on the 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro (UNCED). Guidelines have been issued for environmental impact assessment of projects in all sectors. Following a parliamentary resolution in 1992, the Danish Environment and Disaster Relief Facility (EDRF) was established as an additional budgetary allocation to supplement Danish development assistance. This allocation will increase gradually to 0.5% of GDP by 2002. Half of the EDRF is allocated evenly between environmental assistance to Central and Eastern Europe and to developing countries, the assistance to the latter being administered jointly by DANIDA and DANCED - the Danish Cooperation for Environment and Development.

Cooperation with small island developing states

The Danish Government is in the process of strengthening cooperation with small island developing states. Danish NGOs are also involved in this process.

Eastern Europe

The Danish Environmental Support Fund for Eastern Europe (DESF) was established by the Danish Government in April 1991. In 1993, the Fund was incorporated into the new Danish programme for Global Support for the Environment and Disaster Areas, which was initiated after the Rio Conference held in 1992. The DESF is administered by the Danish Environmental Protection Agency. In terms of contribution per habitant, the Danish bilateral environmental support to the Central and East European Countries (CEEC) is significant. The total Danish assistance to Eastern Europe is estimated to have lead to CO₂ emission reductions of more than 1,000 Gg per year.

1.8 Research and systematic observation

Resarch & Development

Denmark contributes actively to international climate research

programmes including the World Climate Programme.

A main area at the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) is numerical models of the atmosphere. Efforts are directed towards harmonization of the models for weather and climate calculations in order to achieve a uniform model for all problems with a view to enhancing exploitation of new research results.

The work on climate models includes studies on the impact of selected physical processes on the climate and studies on the extra-tropical northern hemisphere climate variability. Another important project is the development of a regional model using a high-resolution model coupled with the global climate model to enable assessment of regional climate changes caused by an increased greenhouse effect.

The Danish EPA together with Risø National Laboratory and the National Environmental Research Institute carried out a project on the socio-economic costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Denmark in 1996.

The project identifies a range of "no-regret" and "low-regret" options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in different sectors. Implementation of these measures will make it possible to substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Danish research and development work on reduction technologies for greenhouse gases is mainly related to the energy sector.

The total costs of Danish energy research and development amount to USD 86 - 100 million per year. The greater share of this is used on technologies for increasing efficiency in energy conversion, improving energy efficiency in end use, and developing technologies using fuels which produce less greenhouse gases - particularly technologies using renewable energy. Areas where Denmark has a strong international position include exploitation of wind energy and biomass, energy efficient utilisation of fossil fuels and combined heat and power technologies. Most of the projects are carried out in collaboration between industry and research centres - often with strong international links.

1.9 Education, training and public awareness

Education, training and public awareness

Since the late 1980's the Danish Ministry of Environment has supported the growing interest among the public in climate change through publications ranging from very detailed descriptions of the climate change issue to more general brochures. Some of the information is also available on electronic media.

The 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro emphasized the need for the public to be involved in the implementation of sustainable development. Interpreting this as a need for public participation and transparency, the Danish Government has continuously offered NGOs seats in the Danish delegation in the context of inter alia the Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Danish NGOs dealing with environment and development are organised in a network called the 92 Group comprising the 18 major organisations dealing with these issues in Denmark.

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