Reduction of Environmental Pressure from Car Transport - Extended Summary
Contents
PREFACE
Chapter 1: Introduction
Chapter 2: The Factor 4/10 Concept in relation to Transport
Chapter 3: State and Development of Danish Road Transport
Chapter 4: Potentials and Scenarios for a Factor 4/10 Reduction
Assumption: growth in consumption
Quantifying the Factor 4/10 reduction target
Evaluation of potentials
Technological potentials
Modified transport organisation
Changes in spatial structures
New lifestyles
Combined potential
Results: Consumption of materials
Results: Emission of CO2
Summing-up
Scenarios for factor 4/10
Scenario at the sector level
Impact on many areas
Scenario at the household and personal level
Chapter 5: Roles of the Authorities and other Operators
Chapter 6: Conclusion
About factor 4/10 as a policy objective for transport
About factor 4/10 sector studies as a method
Selected sourses and references for the study
 
PREFACE
The following is an extended summary from a transport sector case study of the so-called factor 4/10 concept, as applied to travel by motor car in Denmark.
The full study will be available as a report in Danish from The Danish Environmental Protection Agency, titled: "Reduktion af biltransportens miljøbelastning med faktor 4 og faktor 10 - case studie af eco-efficiency i transportsektoren".
The full report as well as the following summary have been prepared by Thomas Nielsen and Henrik Gudmundsson, the National Environmental Research Institute (NERI), Denmark.
The contents of the summary and the full report does not necessarily reflect the views of the Danish Environmental Protection Agency.
Gregers Djørup, STI, made the translation into English.
Copenhagen, October 1998.
 
Chapter 1: Introduction
Case studies in factor 4/10
Under the auspices of the Nordic Council of Ministers it has been decided to carry out a number of case studies regarding the implementation of so-called factor 4/10 strategies within various sectors in the Nordic countries. These are strategies aiming to reduce the consumption of resources and the environmental impact by factors of 4 and 10, respectively, compared to the current consumption/impact.
Focus on the transport sector
In Denmark it has been decided to focus on the transport sector, more specifically the
transport of persons by motorcar. The Danish Environmental Protection Agency has asked DMU
to be in charge of the Danish case study regarding transport. Transport is essential for
the economy and lifestyle of a modern society. At the same time, transport is the source
of a number of significant environmental impacts; thus, transport accounts for about 25%
of the total end-consumption of energy and about 20% of the emission of
Explorative study of a new concept
The Factor 4/10 Concept is one of a number of concepts that aim to make the objective of sustainable development operational. However, when used at sector level, it is a matter of a new approach for which established handling methods are not readily available. Therefore, this report does not constitute a conventional scientific analysis of environmental problems or solutions with regard to transport. Rather, it is in the nature of an explorative study of the usefulness and possible application of the Factor 4/10 Concept to the field of transport.
Overview of Chapters
Chapter 2 presents and interprets the Factor 4/10 Concept and places
it within the context of the special terms and conditions of the transport sector. The
study is delimited so as to focus on transport of persons by motorcar
(hereinafter: "car transport") as the "product" to be dealt with.
Furthermore, the focus is on environmental aspects such as consumption of materials
and energy, and emission of
Chapter 3 reviews the current situation as regards car transport and the environment in a number of quantitative and qualitative units. This chapter thus states the basis in relation to which any future reductions should be viewed.
Chapter 4 analyses the future potentials for a reduction of the resource consumption and environmental impact of car transport. The potentials include, respectively, technology, organisation, urban structures and lifestyles. Following that is a description of two hypothetical scenarios where, by combining various potentials, reductions are achieved by a factor of 4 in year 2030 and a factor of 10 in year 2050, respectively, as compared with today's car transport.
Chapter 5 discusses a number of policy instruments that could be applied by the authorities but, to a great extent, also looks at the barriers to the use of the instruments and accomplishing the potentials.
Chapter 6 contains the conclusion to the report. On the one hand, it
presents an overall assessment of the prospects of accomplishing the relevant objectives
and, on the other, it gives a critical evaluation of the Factor 4/10 Concept as a
framework of analysis for studies of readjustment towards a sustainable development in the
transport sector.
 
Chapter 2: The Factor 4/10 Concept in relation to Transport
Factor 4/10 compared with eco-efficiency
The Factor 4/10 Concept is about increasing the productivity in the utilisation of natural resources and materials (Weizsäcker et al., 1997). In that sense the Factor 4/10 Concept is quite similar to the concept of "eco-efficiency". Eco-efficiency is a general concept which does not define specific targets or objectives. Factor 4/10 can be regarded as a quantification of the eco-efficiency idea. In other words, it is about increasing the efficiency and/or reducing the total impact by a factor of 4 or a factor of 10, respectively, compared with the current situation.
Absolute reductions
Factor 4/10 can be interpreted in various ways. In this study we have chosen to see factor 4/10 as a target for absolute reductions in the consumption of resources and the environmental impact by factors of 4 (2030) and 10 (2050), compared with the current situation.
The reason for this is, among other things, that in a number of areas there will be a need for absolute reductions of the environmental impact – if the sustainability of the globe is to be preserved. Furthermore, the rich countries have special possibilities and obligations regarding reduction of the global environmental impact, e.g., in respect of the climate.
Delimitation: Car transport
The transport sector provides a number of essential services and outputs to the community, and it consists of subsectors such as goods and passenger transport, and transport by rail, sea and air. Chapter 2 discusses a number of different ways to perceive the sector's services. It has been decided to confine this study to transport of passengers by car, where the specific service is expressed as passenger-kilometres by car.
This means that the study focuses on the environmental impact from passenger transport expressed as passenger-kilometres, and the prospects of reducing this impact overall by a factor of 4 in year 2030 and a factor of 10 in year 2050. The aim of the analysis is, in particular, to show if the overall targets can be achieved whilst, at the same time, the demand for passenger-kilometres in the form we know today can be satisfied – and, if not, the departures that can conceivably be made to preserve mobility and accessability in the society.
Delimitation: Consumption of materials and energy, and emission of
A delimitation is also made as to the environmental problems considered. Transport causes a large number of environmental impacts at the local, regional, and global level. The impacts are associated with the individual parts of the transport system as well as with the traffic going on within the system.
In the Factor 4/10 line of thinking the focus is, primarily, on the overall resource input at the expense of deliberations concerning local and specific environmental matters.
This study focuses mainly on three overall environmental impacts from car transport:
 | the total consumption of materials;   |
| the total consumption of energy; and   |
| the total emission of |
all seen in a life-cycle perspective. The life-cycle consideration implies that resource inputs associated with the production, operation and disposal of the selected products and components are incorporated.
In addition, the study deals with emissions of NOx and HC and gives a qualitative description of a number of other environmental impacts.
The background for these interpretations and delimitations is stated in detail in
Chapter 2. It should be noted that the defined targets should be regarded only as a
framework for this analysis. They do not reflect the opinions of DMU or the Ministry of
Environment & Energy as to what targets should, or should not, be pursued in practice.
 
Chapter 3: State and Development of Danish Road Transport
Inventory of transport and environmental impact today
Chapter 3 describes Danish road transport in a number of quantitative entities that
provide the background and yardstick for the future reduction targets. This includes an
inventory of the passenger transport work, the breakdown of the transport by branches and
purposes of travel, and the transport's consumption of materials and energy and emission
of carbon dioxide (
The inventories of the consumption of materials and energy and emission of
- Construction and maintenance of roads;
  - consumption of motor fuel and the energy for its production; and
  - consumption of materials, spare parts, and energy for the production of motorcars.
The results of the inventories for passenger car transport are shown in Table 1. In the
table the inventory of total consumption is complemented with figures for the intensity of
materials consumption (MIPS)[1], the consumption of
energy, and the emission of
Table 1. Materials, energy use and
  |
Passenger car traffic per year | Per kilometre driven | Per car per year |
| Materials | 3.5 – 3.9 mill. tonnes | 0.11 – 0.12 kg | 1.8 – 2.1 tonnes |
| Energy consumption | 105 – 117 PJ | 3.2 – 3.65 MJ | 54 – 62 GJ |
| 7.4 – 8.9 mill. tonnes | 0.23 – 0.28 kg | 3.9 – 4.7 tonnes |
The life-cycle consumption of materials and energy, and the emission of
In Fig. 1 the distribution of materials and energy consumption, as well as the emission
of
(Figur 1 - 7 Kb)
Fig. 1. The breakdown of materials, energy and the emission of
Fuels are the biggest item
Motor fuel – including the production of the fuel – generally represent the biggest share, although the share has been somewhat reduced in respect of the consumption of materials, where road construction and maintenance account for the biggest share.
Road construction and maintenance account for a substantial part of the consumption of
materials from car transport, but their role in connection with energy consumption and
In contrast, the production of motorcars and spare parts represent approximately the
same share of the consumption/emission for materials, energy and
[1] MIPS = Materials Intensity per
Service Unit
 
Chapter 4: Potentials and Scenarios for a Factor 4/10 Reduction
Contents of the Chapter
Chapter 4 takes a look into the future. First there is a statement of the anticipated future development in transport and environmental impact – in a "business as usual" process.
Then, the targets for reduction by factors of 4 and 10 are quantified in relation to the current situation.
Evaluation of potentials
Next, a number of potentials are addressed concerning how to achieve a factor 4/10
reduction of the total materials consumption, energy consumption and
Scenarios
Finally, the various possibilities in the description of scenarios for year 2030 and year 2050 are combined. The scenarios represent examples of conceivable combinations of the potentials, if the factor 4/10 reduction is to be achieved by year 2030 and year 2050. They are not to be taken as realistic forecasts for the development.
Assumption: growth in consumption
The anticipated growth
The historical and actual developments seem to indicate continued growth in the consumption of materials and energy. For an evaluation of the prospects of reducing the total environmental impact and consumption of resources, this trend must be incorporated.
The starting point is the reference projection (1996) of the Ministry of Traffic, where passenger car traffic as well as the number of motorcars have been projected to year 2030. This projection has been continued to year 2050, assuming a moderate growth in traffic and, furthermore, complemented with a number of assumptions regarding the associated road construction, consumption of materials for road maintenance, spare parts, etc., to year 2030 and year 2050, respectively. The result of this projection is shown in Table 2.
Table 2. Projection of the consumption of materials ands energy and the emission of
  |
"Today" | 2030 | 2050 |
| Materials Compared with today |
3,700,000 tonnes 100% |
4,800,000 tonnes 128% |
4,900,000 tonnes 132% |
| Energy Compared with today |
111,000 TJ 100% |
150,000 TJ 136% |
156,000 TJ 141% |
Compared with today |
8,100,000 tonnes 100% |
11,000,000 tonnes 136% |
11,500,000 tonnes 141% |
"Business as Usual" projection of the materials and
energy consumed by passenger car traffic, and its emission of
The projection is used, on the one hand, as a "shopping list" in relation to factors that must be allowed for when evaluating the potential and, on the other, as a "Business as Usual" situation in relation to which the various part potentials can be assessed.
In contrast, the reduction by factors of 4 and 10 is viewed in relation to today's situation (1995).
Quantifying the Factor 4/10 reduction target
Targets for Factor 4/10 reduction
The targets are simply the result of dividing today's values for materials and energy
consumption and emission of
Table 3. Assumed targets through a factor 4/10 reduction
  |
"Today" (as per inventory) |
Factor 4 year 2030 |
Factor 10 year 2050 |
| Materials | 3.5 – 3.9 mio. tonnes | ca. 900,000 tonnes | 350,000 tonnes |
| Energy | 105 – 117 PJ | ca. 26,000 TJ | 10,500 TJ |
| 7.4 – 8.9 mio. tonnes | 1,900,000 tonnes | 740,000 tonnes |
Targets for the yearly consumption of materials and energy and
emission of
Evaluation of potentials
Four types of potential
A number of different potentials are conceivable to achieve a factor 4/10
reduction of the total consumption of materials and energy and emission of
The potentials addressed in this study are:
| technological improvements;   |
| modified transport organisation;   |
| changes in spatial structures;   |
| changes in lifestyles (including the use of IT). |
The potentials are first discussed separately and then combined into an overall maximum potential. The starting point for the review of the potentials is the philosophy behind the eco-efficiency concept: to reduce the environmental impact as far as possible without limiting the service provided by the relevant product.
Starting point: the transport quality of motorcars
In this case the basic parameter is the demand for transport with the quality supplied by today's passenger cars. That is why the technological possibilities are considered first. The other possibilities/potentials can be seen as more or less important deviations from the transport quality of the motorcar. By using modified technology in the vehicles the service provided can, basically, be completely unchanged – whilst at the same time the environmental impact is reduced. The other approaches represent a number of possibilities for establishing a solution to the transport needs and reducing the environmental impact, but where at the same time certain alterations of the form of transport and/or lifestyle are assumed.
Technological potentials
Technological potentials
The incorporated technological potentials include more efficient use of the fuel in motorcars, more efficient energy chains, more effective production of motorcars and roads, etc.
Energy consumption of motorcars
Reductions in the energy consumption of motorcars while they are running can be achieved, notably, by reducing the weight of the cars, but also by reducing the aerodynamic drag, the frontal area, and the rolling drag. It is also possible to substitute more efficient fuel types and fuel chains for the conventional fuels petrol and diesel oil. Electric cars are a particularly interesting alternative because they hold great potential for effective use of energy in electric motors, and because the energy supply to electric cars can be based on sustainable energy sources such as wind power and solar cells.
Within the various industrial sectors concerned with passenger car transport: iron & metal processing, refineries, etc., it is also considered that substantial reductions in the consumption of energy are possible. Also, it is possible to re-use a greater share of motorcars and spare parts – so that the total amount of materials accounted for by the economy is reduced.
Modified transport organisation
Organisational potentials
Changes in the distribution of transport on the different means of transportation – so that part of the passenger car traffic is replaced by, e.g., car sharing, collective transport, or bicycles – are initiatives that can reduce the consumption of energy and materials.
Collective transport
Collective transport can render the conveyance of passengers more efficient in that many persons are transported by the same means of transportation. However, being able to compete with the family car's transport quality requires high frequency and therefore a lot of mileage, which – all other things being equal – tends to reduce the occupancy coefficient and to increase the consumption of energy.
It is assumed that the greatest potential for offering, at the same time, high transport quality and a reduction of the environmental impact from passenger car traffic by shifting to collective means of transportation can be found in the introduction of a flexible collective systems in urban areas. The system will exploit the substantial flows of persons at the times and in the areas where they exist and, in addition, will offer flexible (perhaps call-controlled) transport when and where low utilisation must be accepted.
Car sharing arrangements
Car sharing arrangements imply that several persons share a number of cars via an association where motorcars can be borrowed as needed.
Experience with car sharing schemes in other countries shows that they entail a reduction of the total number of motorcars as well as the total number of miles driven. Car sharing schemes imply that the service provided is to some extent different from what is common today, namely where each household has its own car. On the other hand, car sharing schemes in other countries were established voluntarily, and it is reasonable to assume that such part of the car traffic as the participants "must do without" is that part of the car driving which is least essential and least appreciated. In the assessment of potentials it has been assumed that shared cars can be attractive for drivers who use the car predominantly in their spare time and who have low transport needs.
Car pooling
Car pooling, where several persons ride together in one car instead of using several cars, also holds a potential for reducing the traffic. At the moment car pooling is in most cases arranged on the basis of a common transport destination by virtue of a major workplace, etc., but attempts have also been made to arrange car pooling based on a residential area, from which the pooled motorcars run to the centre of a major city. Car pooling differs from conventional transport in proprietary cars by requiring a higher degree of coordination and punctuality of the participants. In the assessment of potentials it has been assumed that car pooling is primarily a possibility for the residence-to-workplace trip, and that it is largely attractive for drivers who are now using their car because it is a practical mode of transportation between home and work.
Bicycle
Shifting the mileage requirements from a car to a bicycle can also contribute towards a reduction of the materials & energy intensity. However, bicycle transport is effected by means of the person's own motive power and at a lower average speed than the motorcar. The range and, therefore, the prospects of shifting the daily car trips are thus reduced – especially by time and physical condition, but also by practical considerations such as shopping en route and individual preferences. There are, however, also places and destinations where, all things considered, the bicycle is likely to provide better (or just as good) accessability than/as the car. This is probably true, first and foremost, of trips from urban residential areas to the town centres, where accessability with a car may be impaired by reason of congestion, difficulties in finding parking space, as well as the walking distance from the parking spot to the final destination. The starting point for the assessment of potentials is an investigation by the National Highway Agency, where a so-called "extended potential" has been defined. It is based on an evaluation of the additional time consumed when bicycling – as well as the persons' own statements as to what could make them use a bicycle instead of a car.
Changes in spatial structures
Physical and spatial structures
Changes in the spatial structures could generally contribute towards reducing the transport as well as the ownership of cars by making the trips shorter and by providing increased access to carry out one's errands by bicycle or by collective means of transportation. On the one hand, the spreading of the cities' suburbs was made possible by car transport but, on the other hand, it generates a new demand for additional car transport – by increasing the length of the trips and impairing the terms and conditions for the collective traffic and for cycling and walking. Norwegian surveys as well as surveys of transport to and from workplaces in Denmark seem to show that, above all, the access to collective means of transportation, the distance to the centre, and the density of a residential area have great impact on the volume of motorcar traffic.
The potential for a reduction of the environmental impact from passenger car traffic by changing the spatial structures was assessed on the basis of two types of information. Firstly, an estimate of how the spatial structure affects the transport carried out by the inhabitants of a given residential area. Secondly, an assessment as to how great a proportion of the aggregate housing, etc., that can theoretically be designed as the least transport-generating form of housing, etc., by year 2030 and year 2050.
New lifestyles
Changed lifestyles and IT
Changes in lifestyles implying that car transport is replaced by other forms of communication – or that more goods are sent to the consumers rather than being picked up by the consumers – also harbour a potential for reduction of the environmental impact from car traffic.
Thus, information technology provides a number of possibilities both for replacement of transport and for coordination of transport, so that it is carried out more efficiently in terms of energy and the environment. Information technology is currently in rapid growth in respect of technical possibilities, dissemination, and use. It is reasonable to assume that these new possibilities will be playing an increasing role both in year 2030 and in year 2050.
The possibilities most discussed today are "remote" working as well as services and shopping. The potential for using these forms of communication and ordering as a substitute for car transport has been assessed here on the basis of a reduction of transport between home and work by an order of magnitude corresponding to the dissemination potential of "remote" work, and a reduction of the shopping trips by an order of magnitude corresponding to the estimates of the market share of the "remote" work.
Combined potential
Combined potential
For each of the four types of potential a quantative estimate has been made of how far
each of them can contribute to a reduction of the consumption of energy and materials and
the emission of
The combined potential should be seen as a relatively optimistic assessment of the possibilities. The combined potential is assessed in the light of assessments of development potentials as they appear today – and which are likely to be achievable without drastic encroachment on transport behaviour. It cannot be ruled out that the future will be characterised by totally different possibilities and needs.
Obviously, the combined potential does not in itself constitute a solution to the problems. Considerable development and regulation work will be associated with the achievement of these potentials and, not least, with ensuring that the possibilities are utilised to reduce the consumption of energy and materials by transport rather than enabling more transport and increased ownership of motorcars. The "boomerang" or rebound effect which occurs if the consumption of energy and materials is rationalised and the services made cheaper because of that, is not included in the potentials. The prospects of realisation are discussed in Chapter 5.
Results: Consumption of materials
Results for the consumption of materials
Fig. 2 shows the results for the consumption of materials. The figure incorporates the "Business as Usual" projection and the technological potential in itself as well as the combined potential – consisting of the technological potential, changes in spatial structures, changes in distribution on different means of transportation, as well as lifestyle/IT. The result has been indexed with 1995 equal to 100.
(Figur 2 - 6 Kb)
Fig. 2. Materials consumed by passenger car transport in a life-cycle perspective. The blank columns under 1995 are the potential for year 2050 (technical and combined, respectively), provided that motorcar traffic and the aggregate number of motorcars remain at the present level.
For the consumption of materials the outlined potential suffices for a reduction by a factor of 1.8 in year 2030 and a factor of 2.6 in year 2050. In other words, it is still a far cry from factors 4 and 10.
The reduction is caused, primarily, by the increased efficiency of the technology and an electricity supply based on sustainable energy for the electric cars.
For the consumption of materials the combined potential is smaller than for the
consumption of energy and the emission of
The composition of the combined potential is shown in Table 4.
Table 4. Reductions of materials consumed by passenger car transport
  |
2030 |   |
2050 |   |
| Technology potential | 2,285,000 tonnes | 48% | 3,146,000 tonnes | 64% |
| Technology potential with today's electricity supply | 2,204,000 tonnes | 46% | 2,440,000 tonnes | 50% |
| Changed transport organisation | 838,000 tonnes | 18% | 1,126,000 tonnes | 23% |
| Changed spatial structures | 354,000 tonnes | 7% | 617,000 tonnes | 13% |
| Changed lifestyle with more IT | 118,000 tonnes | 2% | 225,000 tonnes | 5% |
| Combined potential | 2,660,000 tonnes | 56% | 3,480,000 tonnes | 71% |
NOTE: Reductions in the consumption of materials from the various components of the potential are stated in tonnes and as a reduction percentage in proportion to the projected consumption of materials. Except for the "combined potential" the reductions are stated for an isolated use of the relevant potential-component. When potentials that function by virtue of a reduction of traffic are applied after the increased efficiency from the technology potential has been "introduced", the reduction potential by this approach is obviously smaller than in the case of an environmentally less efficient car traffic. Therefore, the individual reductions in the table cannot be added together to form the combined potential.
Results: Emission of CO2
Results for
(Figur 3 - 5 Kb)
Fig. 3 below shows the effect of the combined potential on the emission of
Fig. 3. The emission of
The potential for reduction of the emission of
The reason is, primarily, that the change in the electricity supply to electric cars in
year 2030 has a greater impact on the emission of
In other words, it is a combination of changes in the transport system and changes in
the energy sector which, between them, hold out prospects of considerable reductions.
However, for the emission of
Table 5 shows the composition of the combined potential for the emission of
Table 5. Reductions of emission of
  |
2030 |   |
2050 |   |
| Technology potential | 7,121,000 tonnes | 64% | 9,117,000 tonnes | 80% |
| Technology potential with today's electricity supply | 6,575,000 tonnes | 459 | 7,442,000 tonnes | 65% |
| Changed transport organisation | 2,918,000 tonnes | 26% | 3,233,000 tonnes | 28% |
| Changed spatial structures | 1,108,000 tonnes | 10% | 1,843,000 tonnes | 16% |
| Changed lifestyle with more IT | 465,000 tonnes | 4% | 776,000 tonnes | 7% |
| Combined potential | 8,440,000 tonnes | 76% | 10,050,000 tonnes | 88% |
Reductions in the emission of
Summing-up
Table 6 contains a summing-up of the factor reductions achieved by the various components of the potential.
Table 6. Total factor reductions
  |
Materials | Energy | ||||
  |
2030 | 2050 | 2030 | 2050 | 2030 | 2050 |
| Technology potential | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 3.5 |
| Technology potential – with today's electricity supply | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Technology potential and changed organisation | 1.6 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 4.6 |
| Combined potential | 1.8 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 5.7 |
The factor reductions were calculated as the ratio between today's
consumption of materials and energy and emissions of
The combined potential illustrates that it is possible to achieve substantial reductions of the environmental impact from passenger car traffic as compared with today.
The contribution from the technological potential is greatest.
The greatest potential, not surprisingly, comes from the implementation of the technological potential, although especially when an extensive readjustment of the energy system towards sustainable energy is assumed at the same time. The reason is that a large part of the potential in the transport sector is believed to come from conversion to electric propulsion.
Still a long way to go
However, the outlined possibilities are still far from the targets for a factor 4/10 reduction. Even if all the potentials are combined it would be impossible to reach the targets – if at the same time traffic continues to increase at the rate expected today. In other words, the potentials discussed are not in themselves sufficient to reach reductions by a factor of 4 and 10.
A need for changes in transport behaviour and lifestyle
This means that – in the light of the possibilities beginning to emerge today – a factor 4/10 reduction seems to call for a considerable restructuring of the transport behaviour and, therefore, the demands made today regarding access to transportation. This seems to indicate that a factor 4/10 reduction will require more radical changes in transport behaviour, values, and lifestyle.
The following is an outline of an overall scenario for the changes that a full factor 4/10 reduction of the environmental impact from passenger car traffic is likely to require.
Scenarios for factor 4/10
Scenarios
If the consumption of energy and materials as well as the emission of
The scenario for transport in a situation where the consumption of energy and materials
as well as the emission of
Scenario at the sector level
Sector level
The scenario at sector level can be arranged as a number of "demands" as to the appearance and composition of the passenger car sector. It should be noted that in this context a "demand" is not to be taken as the only avenue to a factor 4/10 reduction. Rather, it is one conceivable way to the goal – illustrating the radical changes faced by passenger car traffic if a full factor 4/10 reduction is to be achieved.
The "demands" which are in excess of the technology potential are as follows:
| Passenger car traffic to be reduced overall by 50% to year 2030 and 70% to year 2050
compared to 1995. In return, the supply of collective means of transportation and cycling
will be increased;   |
| electric cars - obtaining their energy from sustainable energy sources like windmills or
solar cells - to account for no less than 80% of the motorcar traffic by year 2050;   |
| road construction to be reduced by a factor of 4, reaching a low of 25 kilometres per
year; and   |
| the number of passenger cars to be reduced by 30% to year 2030 (where it will be as low as 1,250,000 cars) and by 50% to year 2050, where it will be down to 900,000 cars. The alternative might be a more widespread use of car sharing arrangements. |
If the same number of passenger-kilometres are to be achieved in the factor 4/10 situation, it will require very intensive utilisation of collective means of transportation and a substantial increase in the occupancy rate for family cars. However, in theory the great geographical range available to a person today can be preserved, although the organisation of the transport will necessarily be very different from today.
It is likely that adaptation to a factor 4/10 situation in passenger car transport will to some extent occur as development of new behavioural patterns and forms of organisation. This will mean that travel destinations for passenger car traffic will to a great extent have to be replaced by new destinations that can be reached on foot or by bicycle.
However, people's access to a motorcar need not be very much lower than it is today. The access of a major part of the population to use a car occasionally may be based, in the factor 4/10 situation, on sharing arrangements, borrowing/renting, etc.
Impact on many areas
The factor 4/10 reduction will have an impact on a large number of structures and values in society. The manner in which mobility in the labour market is preserved will be different. Local training and education of staff at the enterprises, including recruitment of local manpower for training, will be common. Workmen, etc., will be less specialised and/or have several different specialisations from various jobs.
There will be other forms of education in traffic behaviour and new "user interfaces" than those we know today. The factor 4/10 situation will also entail a number of shifts in values – including as regards the concept of transport and how it is to be carried out.
Windmills and solar cells will be a common sight all over the country. In year 2050 there will be few places along the Danish coast where you cannot see a windmill farm. In order to keep the consumption of energy and materials as low as possible the roofs of existing buildings will be fitted with solar cells, and all new buildings will be designed with solar cells as part of their roof structure.
The demand of the factor 4/10 reduction for high efficiency in the use of materials and the consumption of energy will also imply that there will be a major re-use and recycling industry, perhaps with return systems so that materials and components can be used with the least possible amount of wasted energy and materials.
Scenario at the household and personal level
Household level
At the household and personal level the factor 4/10 reduction of the environmental impact from passenger car transport will entail substantial changes in both the choice and the location of travel destinations, as well as in the use of transport.
In the factor 4/10 society each individual is likely to have an interest in limiting the amount of motoring and the use of motorised transport as much as possible. This may be the case, for example, because it is made expensive – or because there is a lot of attention focused on the use of resources and global environmental capacity.
In the factor 4/10 society there will be a number of instruments to render transport efficient and coordinated.
The demands of the factor 4/10 reduction for efficient utilisation of the means of transportation will imply, for example, that the fare paid for collective traffic will depend on the time of the day you wish to go.
In the factor 4/10 society a person will be less dependent on motorised transport in his everyday life. Routine functions such as shopping, laundry, etc., will always be within walking or bicycling distance from the home. The regard for reduction of the transport needs will generally put its mark on the urban structure.
Generally speaking, people will focus considerably on the local area or town they live in. This means that they will use local shops more than today, and that outings will tend to go to local excursion sites in the immediate vicinity of the town. However, most families will have access to a motorcar which they can use occasionally for longer excursions and visits.
Information technology will be more widespread and will offer totally new forms of entertainment, which may supersede some of the entertainment that used to take place away from home.
Other environmental problems in the cities are reduced
The environmental problems from traffic as we know them today will be sharply reduced.
There will be less noise from traffic in the cities, and being in the steets will be less
stressful. When, at the same time, there are fewer parked cars, the access to stay
outdoors around one's home will be strengthened and improved. Actual air pollution will
not normally be a nuisance but could still be felt in certain urban streets.
 
Chapter 5: Roles of the Authorities and other Operators
A need for efforts by many operators
Adjusting to the factor 4/10 situation cannot be expected to happen automatically but will require a substantial effort from a large number of social operators, including authorities at all levels.
Roles and possibilities of the authorities
The possibilities available to the authorities of influencing the development is linked, i.a., with a number of policy instruments which can take the form of more specific measures addressed to the operators who have influence on the environmental impact of transport.
Barriers to restructuring
On the other hand, it is not realistic to imagine that the factor 4/10 situation is something that can simply be "introduced" by the authorities adopting various measures. In fact, there will be considerable barriers to the realisation of the objective.
Barriers can occur, for example, in the form of established social and economic structures that tend to preserve the existing patterns; opposite trends that pull the development in a different direction; or the presence of other interests and targets on the part of the operators that may conflict with the factor 4/10 target.
Dynamic barriers
The barriers are not merely static structures that can be "eliminated" by an adequate regulatory effort. They may represent social mechanisms or dynamic aspects that may more persistently counteract a given strategy.
These may include; e.g.:
| economic dynamic aspects, such as when improved efficiency of technology leads to an increased demand for transport; |
| social dynamic aspects, such as when attempts to develop new norms lead to
counter-reactions in the form of ritualisation of the "undesired conduct"; and   |
| institutional dynamic aspects, such as when the operators who are subjected to regulation have access to control the information necessary for the regulation. |
Conversely, it is reasonable to assume that is is also possible to create positive dynamic aspects that may be instrumental in generating changes in the direction of the factor 4/10 targets.
Possible measures to reach the targets
A number of possible measures are examined which the authorities might consider to promote the readjustment towards the factor 4/10 situation. The measures include "top-down" control measures within the transport sector, "bottom-up" oriented measures, as well as general measures outside the sector. For each measure the positive and negative consequences are discussed, as well as the possible barriers and operators. The outlined measures include:
| Taxes and charges on fossil fuels;   |
| standards for the emission of   |
| standards for the motorcars' consumption of materials and prospects of re-use;   |
| expansion in the form of sophisticated collective transport; etc.;   |
| an end to the expansion of the highway network ("zero road vision");   |
| localisation policies;   |
| tax regulations in relation to transport and localisation;   |
| experiments with new transport forms and structures; and   |
| general measures, including the dissemination of sustainable energy sources, general shifts in taxation (e.g., in the form of an "ecological tax reform"), and increased transparency of environmental consequences in decisions. |
Impossible to specify and rank the measures
It is true of all the measures that they hold advantages as well as limitations as regards the prospects of achieving the factor 4/10 targets in practice. None of them are without
certain drawbacks, related to e.g. costs, uncertainty or acceptability. In this context it is not possible to rank the measures, to estimate the extent to which they will be capable of achieving the relevant targets, or to specify the doses and combinations in which they may have to be applied.
Combinations
It is certain, however, that there will be a need to combine measures which, between them, can initiate readjustment on a wide front within the most important structures that support the current trend.
If long-term readjustment is to be achieved, it is essential that there can be a development in people's preferences which supports the targets. Changes of this type cannot be forced through from the top down. Therefore, one must visualise a readjustment in several phases. Thus, the following types of measure could conceivably be launched during the first phase:
Different types of measures necessary
1. Measures which curb the current growth in transport and environmental impact, including
| reduction and readjustment of infrastructure expansions; |
| technical agreements / demands for means of transportation and their consumption of energy; and |
| a curb on inappropriate localisation decisions. |
2. Measures which prepare the soil for changes in the trends, such as
| increased communication regarding environmental problems and consequences; |
| attempts and experiments with new forms of transport and lifestyles; |
| research into new types of material, etc.; and |
| analyses of possible long-term strategies. |
3. Measures that pave the way for long-term readjustment
| continued expansion and conversion to sustainable energy sources; |
| a shift in taxation so that environmental targets are – to an increasing extent – incorporated into the basis of taxation; and |
| incorporation of environmental targets and considerations into other decision contexts (economic policy, etc.). |
In a subsequent phase (say, after ten years) it is reasonable to assume that conditions
may have been created by these measures that make it possible to initiate more radical
readjustment.
 
Chapter 6: Conclusion
About factor 4/10 as a policy objective for transport
Targets are hard to achieve
With the knowledge available at the present time it is not deemed possible to reach the factor 4/10 targets – as they have been interpreted here ad absolute reductions – by year 2030 and 2050, respectively, without very substantial changes to and reductions in the service offered to motorists by today's car transport. This is true even if far-reaching assumptions are made in respect of introduction of new technology and other initiatives.
The difficulty of reaching the targets is different according to the environmental problem focused on.
Out of the three problems focused on in this study, it is considered most difficult to
achieve reductions in the overall consumption of materials followed by the consumption of
energy and, finally, the emission of
There are, nevertheless, several options to greatly increase the eco-efficiency related
to car transport. These include options in respect of materials use, energy as well as
The greater the deviations from the services provided by today's car transport - in terms of speed, range, comfort, privacy, availability, etc. -which can be accepted, the more the eco-efficiency potentials exist.
Reduction potentials depend on accepted devinance from todays service
For instance, if only small deviations are accepted, electric vehicles can offer
individual transport at a much lower energy use, and especially
Still, it would require the combination of all the potentials plus substantial changes to the roles played in today's society by passenger transport and the motor car, if absolute reductions in the range of factor 4 and 10 were to be achieved in the future. Among the reasons for this are the upward pressure in travel demand, the limited overall application of some of the potentials, and the possibility of efficiency-induced demand increases (the rebound effect).
Not transport alone
It is difficult to apply the Factor 4/10 Concept to the transport sector in isolation. The development in transport (demand as well as technology) will depend on the other social developments, and the total environmental impact will depend on the interaction between transport and the other activities in society.
Not one country alone
Moreover, it is hard to imagine a factor 4/10 reduction being implemented in one sector in one country in isolation. Thus, the national authorities will be dependent on the possibility of adopting international schemes for increased fuel pricing and regulatory measures for the automotive industry.
Risk of increased pressures
A problematic consequence of radically reducing the consumption of energy and materials could be a sharp reduction of the cost of transportation – which could lead to increased environmental impacts which are not associated with materials and energy. Counteracting undesired consequences and overcoming barriers to the reduction of the environmental impact will require a coherent application of administrative, economic and organisational measures within and outside the transport sector.
About factor 4/10 sector studies as a method
Absolute targets can be used to uncover limitations
Analyses based on such fixed environmental objectives as factor 4/10 can be illustrating because they are instrumental in identifying particularly problematic or sluggish aspects.
They can also be a useful "antidote" against exaggerated optimism as regards spectacular isolated potentials such as electric cars, far more efficient conventional cars, massive dissemination of information technology and "remote" work, etc.
The fixed targets are particularly important when viewed in relation to a strict eco-efficiency concept, because the dynamics between the sector and the community could entail that the increased efficiency is counterbalanced by increased activity.
In terms of method it is also highly interesting that factor 4/10 and eco-efficiency put focus on the aspect of materials. However, data and methods to assess the total consumption of materials in the individual sectors, and the prospects of reducing it, are sorely lacking.
Lack of knowledge of the consumption of materials and its environmental consequences
Nor is it necessarily ideal to state the flows of material in combination, as it is evident that the various materials represent totally different environmental problems. In particular, one might question the relevance of targets for a factor 4 or factor 10 reduction of the total consumption of materials in the sector.
However, the targets can be used as a starting point for discussions of desired goals
and possible objectives and strategies.
 
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