Reduction of Environmental Pressure from Car Transport - Extended Summary

Chapter 1: Introduction

Case studies in factor 4/10

Under the auspices of the Nordic Council of Ministers it has been decided to carry out a number of case studies regarding the implementation of so-called factor 4/10 strategies within various sectors in the Nordic countries. These are strategies aiming to reduce the consumption of resources and the environmental impact by factors of 4 and 10, respectively, compared to the current consumption/impact.

Focus on the transport sector

In Denmark it has been decided to focus on the transport sector, more specifically the transport of persons by motorcar. The Danish Environmental Protection Agency has asked DMU to be in charge of the Danish case study regarding transport. Transport is essential for the economy and lifestyle of a modern society. At the same time, transport is the source of a number of significant environmental impacts; thus, transport accounts for about 25% of the total end-consumption of energy and about 20% of the emission of CO₂ in Denmark.

Explorative study of a new concept

The Factor 4/10 Concept is one of a number of concepts that aim to make the objective of sustainable development operational. However, when used at sector level, it is a matter of a new approach for which established handling methods are not readily available. Therefore, this report does not constitute a conventional scientific analysis of environmental problems or solutions with regard to transport. Rather, it is in the nature of an explorative study of the usefulness and possible application of the Factor 4/10 Concept to the field of transport.

Overview of Chapters

Chapter 2 presents and interprets the Factor 4/10 Concept and places it within the context of the special terms and conditions of the transport sector. The study is delimited so as to focus on transport of persons by motorcar (hereinafter: "car transport") as the "product" to be dealt with. Furthermore, the focus is on environmental aspects such as consumption of materials and energy, and emission of CO₂.

Chapter 3 reviews the current situation as regards car transport and the environment in a number of quantitative and qualitative units. This chapter thus states the basis in relation to which any future reductions should be viewed.

Chapter 4 analyses the future potentials for a reduction of the resource consumption and environmental impact of car transport. The potentials include, respectively, technology, organisation, urban structures and lifestyles. Following that is a description of two hypothetical scenarios where, by combining various potentials, reductions are achieved by a factor of 4 in year 2030 and a factor of 10 in year 2050, respectively, as compared with today's car transport.

Chapter 5 discusses a number of policy instruments that could be applied by the authorities but, to a great extent, also looks at the barriers to the use of the instruments and accomplishing the potentials.

Chapter 6 contains the conclusion to the report. On the one hand, it presents an overall assessment of the prospects of accomplishing the relevant objectives and, on the other, it gives a critical evaluation of the Factor 4/10 Concept as a framework of analysis for studies of readjustment towards a sustainable development in the transport sector.