Reduction of Environmental Pressure from Car Transport - Extended Summary

Chapter 6: Conclusion

About factor 4/10 as a policy objective for transport
About factor 4/10 sector studies as a method

About factor 4/10 as a policy objective for transport

Targets are hard to achieve

With the knowledge available at the present time it is not deemed possible to reach the factor 4/10 targets – as they have been interpreted here ad absolute reductions – by year 2030 and 2050, respectively, without very substantial changes to and reductions in the service offered to motorists by today's car transport. This is true even if far-reaching assumptions are made in respect of introduction of new technology and other initiatives.

The difficulty of reaching the targets is different according to the environmental problem focused on.

CO₂ targets easiest to achieve

Out of the three problems focused on in this study, it is considered most difficult to achieve reductions in the overall consumption of materials followed by the consumption of energy and, finally, the emission of CO₂. The reason why it is easiest to achieve the target for CO₂ is, notably, the theoretical prospect of shifting to electrical cars based on sustainable energy.

There are, nevertheless, several options to greatly increase the eco-efficiency related to car transport. These include options in respect of materials use, energy as well as CO₂.

The greater the deviations from the services provided by today's car transport - in terms of speed, range, comfort, privacy, availability, etc. -which can be accepted, the more the eco-efficiency potentials exist.

Reduction potentials depend on accepted devinance from todays service

For instance, if only small deviations are accepted, electric vehicles can offer individual transport at a much lower energy use, and especially CO₂-emission per passenger kilometre, in the future - with a new energy system perhaps up to a factor of 10. If greater deviations are accepted, advanced public transport in combination with car sharing and bicycles may also offer major reductions, for various types of travel. If certain transport services can be entirely replaced by other forms of access such as electronic communication - without a loss in percived service - very large energy efficiency increases may be obtained.

Still, it would require the combination of all the potentials plus substantial changes to the roles played in today's society by passenger transport and the motor car, if absolute reductions in the range of factor 4 and 10 were to be achieved in the future. Among the reasons for this are the upward pressure in travel demand, the limited overall application of some of the potentials, and the possibility of efficiency-induced demand increases (the rebound effect).

Not transport alone

It is difficult to apply the Factor 4/10 Concept to the transport sector in isolation. The development in transport (demand as well as technology) will depend on the other social developments, and the total environmental impact will depend on the interaction between transport and the other activities in society.

Not one country alone

Moreover, it is hard to imagine a factor 4/10 reduction being implemented in one sector in one country in isolation. Thus, the national authorities will be dependent on the possibility of adopting international schemes for increased fuel pricing and regulatory measures for the automotive industry.

Risk of increased pressures

A problematic consequence of radically reducing the consumption of energy and materials could be a sharp reduction of the cost of transportation – which could lead to increased environmental impacts which are not associated with materials and energy. Counteracting undesired consequences and overcoming barriers to the reduction of the environmental impact will require a coherent application of administrative, economic and organisational measures within and outside the transport sector.

About factor 4/10 sector studies as a method

Absolute targets can be used to uncover limitations

Analyses based on such fixed environmental objectives as factor 4/10 can be illustrating because they are instrumental in identifying particularly problematic or sluggish aspects.

They can also be a useful "antidote" against exaggerated optimism as regards spectacular isolated potentials such as electric cars, far more efficient conventional cars, massive dissemination of information technology and "remote" work, etc.

The fixed targets are particularly important when viewed in relation to a strict eco-efficiency concept, because the dynamics between the sector and the community could entail that the increased efficiency is counterbalanced by increased activity.

In terms of method it is also highly interesting that factor 4/10 and eco-efficiency put focus on the aspect of materials. However, data and methods to assess the total consumption of materials in the individual sectors, and the prospects of reducing it, are sorely lacking.

Lack of knowledge of the consumption of materials and its environmental consequences

Nor is it necessarily ideal to state the flows of material in combination, as it is evident that the various materials represent totally different environmental problems. In particular, one might question the relevance of targets for a factor 4 or factor 10 reduction of the total consumption of materials in the sector.

However, the targets can be used as a starting point for discussions of desired goals and possible objectives and strategies.