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Model for selection of future target areas in the Danish Program for Cleaner Products 5 Further development of the modelThe screening model, which has been developed in the present project, has the aim of selecting relevant areas for future industry-oriented and product-oriented environmental actions. In the same way the model should be suited for further development aiming at giving priority to future actions by the Danish EPA within the framework of the Program for Cleaner Products. Thus the model should be able to relate products with the industrial sectors in which they are produced taking earlier industry-oriented actions as well as future product-oriented actions into consideration. As basis for the environmental assessments an American input/output database was chosen. The reason being that this database allows a consistent environmental screening of all the relevant product groups. The first issue of the model, which is available now, is based on screening. It means that a number of delimitations were introduced and a number of courses were chosen. Therefore this preliminary issue of the model has the following delimitations:
In the following these delimitations will be treated in detail. Furthermore a proposal to minimize these delimitations is described as well as a presentation of the sources, which are expected to be included in the further development of the model. The descriptions are based on the knowledge acquired during the present study. A more detailed analysis and the laying down of future wishes and needs will probably reveal a number of further possibilities. 5.1 Inclusion of further environmental aspectsThe use of the American database for environmental screening by nature poses some limitations. Only the environmental aspects included in the American model can be taken into consideration. In total the model comprises 72 different parameters such as economy, air polluting substances, working environment, water consumption, green house effect, emission of toxic substances to air, water, soil and subsoil, nutritive substances, energy consumption, consumption of raw materials, dangerous wastes and estimated costs of the detrimental effects of pollution. Among these environmental parameters eight parameters have been selected in order to handle the amount of information used in the screening. The eight parameters used in the first issue of the model are:
The further development of the model for selection of future target areas of course makes it possible to include more of the environmental aspects used in the American model, but it is estimated useful to include the consumption of resources, waste and consumption of chemicals since these parameters represent the weak spots in the American method. Possible sources to be taken into consideration in this context are: Total Material Requirement Statistics Denmark is preparing information about DMI – Direct Material-Input and TMR – Total Material Requirement, which are statements of the consumption of resources distributed on product groups and industrial sectors in Denmark as well as on an international level. The consumption of resources are stated in the national account according to industrial sectors which unfortunately are not directly comparable with branch codes settled by the DB-93 standard, and on product groups having another code than the KN nomenclature. This study of Statistics Denmark will probably be finished simultaneously with the present project. Therefore the information under preparation by Statistics Denmark has not been included in the first issue of the model for selection of future target areas. For the further development of the model DMI and TMR are judged potential relevant, but a prerequisite is further working cycles at Statistics Denmark. Chemicals The study about state of the art and prospects in the field of chemicals "Status og perspektiver på kemikalieområdet, 1996" comprises an survey of the industrial sectors which are featured by a high consumption of chemicals as well as an overview of the products which are containing the non-desirable substances listed specifically. In the further development of the model for selection of future target areas the products from the above mentioned list could be related to the products codes used. This represents a comprehensive load of work for which reason it is not included in the first issue of the model, but it is evident to do it in the next issue. Waste Furthermore statistics about wastes (Affaldsstatistikker) is prepared annually based on information from a number of companies representing different industrial sectors which by law are obliged to report about wastes to the Danish EPA. It has to be examined whether information about the production of wastes can be extracted and used in a product assessment. Apparently this represents a considerable effort, but on the other hand it could strengthen the environmental assessment of the product groups with regard to wastes. The recent study about industries featured by large amounts of dangerous wastes "Affaldstunge brancher, 2001" may as an alternative give information about the most important industries with regard to wastes. The study maps the amounts and the types of waste generated by the industries in question which are the pharmaceutical industry, the manufacturer of electronics, the iron and steel industry as well as the wood and furniture industry. Unfortunately this study is not able to establish a basis for a consistent assessment of all sub-branches contrary to the present model. 5.2 More detailed information in the modelThe present issue of the model for selection of future target areas operates with a total of 95 product groups (two-digit KN code level) and 106 producing industrial sectors as well as 40 industrial sectors covering commercial activities and service (three-digit DB-93 code level). It was a choice in the present project to keep the number of product groups and sub-sectors at this level in order to carry out a screening consistent in the treatment of information from all product groups. Products The disadvantage arising from this choice is that the accuracy for the individual product groups is less high. This is in particular the case for large and non-uniform product groups such as " 73: Articles of iron and steel" which comprises screws and nails, cookers and pre-fabricated sections to bridges, and the product " 74: Copper and articles thereof" which comprises nearly everything ranging from non-refined copper to household appliances made of copper. In the further work with the model it should be examined whether the accuracy – and thus the possibility to focus the actions – could be improved by increasing the number of details mainly with regard to the product groups for instance by introducing a four-digit KN code level (use of a three-digit level is not possible). Introduction of a four-digit code level for products means that the number of product groups will rise to about 1200, which in turn will increase the time needed for the environmental assessment. The American input/output database only operates with about 500 product groups and services. It therefore has to be examined in which fields the American database allows for more details of the product groups in order to obtain a higher accuracy. Industrial sectors Use of more details may cause problems with the information about the different industrial sectors given by Statistics Denmark. Statistics Denmark is submitted to a confidentiality clause, which gives rise to problems if only a few companies are represented in the statistics demanded. The numbers from Statistics Denmark already show that even at a three-numbered level some information has to be kept confidential which is handled practically by putting information from several sub-trades together. By experience it is known that for some industrial sectors information can be obtained on a four or five-numbered code level whereas other trades branches only allow information retrieval on a three-numbered code level or not at all. As an example Denmark only have very few producers of heat insulation materials. The use of the Statistics of foreign trade shows a need for more details about the different industrial sectors in particular within wholesales. Otherwise the information given by this statistical source has no practical use. It should therefore be examined whether in general more details about the industrial sectors are wanted or more details in selected product groups are wanted. Statistics Denmark should be asked which influence more details corresponding to a four or five-numbered code level have on the confidentiality. If the number of product groups and sub-sectors is increased this requires new and more comprehensive treatment of information to substitute the present ones in the existing database. 5.3 Adaptation to Danish conditionsThe model for selection of future target areas in the Danish program for Cleaner Products is as mentioned earlier based on American conditions. In the further development of the model it should be examined to which extent the difference between American and Danish conditions has influence on the results. If so which possibilities are available to adapt the results to Danish conditions? It is recommended to start the further development of the model by an examination of the consequences of using American data instead of Danish data. The sources referred to below have been examined in the present project and may be included in a new project. If the American conditions appear to be too different from the Danish ones it has to be examined whether the use of a corrective factor will be useful or the model should be developed in quite another way. The statistics issued by Statistics Denmark about input-output and analysis of imports, employment and environment denominated "Input-output tabeller og analyser 2000 - Import, beskæftigelse og miljø" comprises surveys of energy, water and miscellaneous atmospheric emissions. Environmental information is presented either as a total for the industrial sector, for instance in tons CO2 or tons CO2 per DKK i.e. related to value produced in the industrial sector. Environmental information is related to 130 national accounts for individual trades, which are not exactly coinciding with the DB-93 codes, but still comparable. This input/output model was not included in the first issue of the model as the information relates to industrial sectors and not to products. In a further development environmental information from this Danish input/output model can be transferred to product level via the relations between products and industrial sectors in Statistics Denmark. This implies an uncertainty concerning the information about the product groups, but the results could be used to estimate how far the American conditions are from the Danish conditions in the first issue of the model. The UMIP-database comprises information about the environmental impact of individual processes. For use in the development of the present model the UMIP-database appeared to be a too detailed and too time-consuming tool. On the other hand a number of selected products groups treated in this way may be useful to determine whether the American conditions are far from the Danish conditions. The UMIP-method should only be used on the more homogeneous product groups in order to have basis for comparison. Alternatively it is judged necessary to have more UMIP-evaluations i.e. evaluations of several products within the same product group. 5.4 Inclusion of the phases of use and final disposalThe Input/output analysis is a "cradle-to-port" assessment, which means that the phases of use and final disposal are not included in the environmental assessment. In giving priority to future environmental actions it is essential to include the phases in which the product is used and finally disposed of. Mainly the phase of use is important for a life cycle assessment. From an overall view there are two ways to include these phases in the environmental assessments. Either as an "add-on" parameter to the environmental assessment – perhaps only a statement whether or not the phase of use is energy consuming or the size of the environmental impact of the final disposal phase indicated as a ranking between the levels high, medium and low. It is also possible to include the phases of use and final disposal in the model itself submitting these phases to environmental assessment using all eight parameters as a minimum. How this inclusion shall take place depends to a certain degree on other choices made in the development of the model and shall naturally be taken into consideration in the total account. If the phases of use and final disposal should be included entirely in the model it may be useful to rely on the UMIP-database or a similar database. It should be mentioned that the use of UMIP is time-consuming if the number of product groups is enlarged considerably during the development of the model. 5.5 Further development of the model itselfThe above-mentioned aspects taken into account it is relevant to consider a development of the evaluation methods, for instance whether the individual parameters should be weighted in relation to each other, and if so in which way. In the present model all eight parameters have the same weight, but a better and more correct ranking could perhaps be achieved by weighting the parameters in relation to each other. In the further development of the model it should be studied how relevant a weighting of the individual parameters is and how this weighting in the affirmative case should be carried out, as an example with regard to political priorities. The need for weighting the parameters and the methods to do so of course depend on the number of supplementary parameters included in the model, but the way in which the phases of use and final disposal are included in the model also has importance. 5.6 Relation to other international methodsFinally, the relation to other international methods should be studied, in particular with regard to uniformity in the pointing out of environmentally important product groups. Furthermore a study of the methodology used in the projects may give mutual benefits. A few examples are listed in the following, but certainly more examples exist. In connection with the development of the model dk-TEKNIK ENERGY & DEVELOPMENT attended a workshop organized by the European Union about the project EU (DG V) "Study on external environmental effects related to the life cycle of products and services". The aim of this project is to create an overview based on a number (20-30) of selected product groups showing where the largest environmental impacts are. The product groups have been selected using "common sense" and the expectations of finding suitable LCA information. In each product group more detailed LCA will be carried out on five actual products in order to map the difference between "good" products having for instance an eco-label and the "bad" ones. Presently (August 2002) the project has not been ended for which reason it is not included in the first issue of the model, but if useful results are found they will be included in further development of the model. The Swedish report about the environmental impact of different product groups is named "Miljöpåverkan från olika varugrupper" and was issued in 2001. It refers to different input/output analysis of Swedish, American and Danish origin. The latter is denominated "Miljøprioritering af industriprodukter fra 1995" (Environmental priority of industrial products from 1995). The report ranks different product groups according to the following environmental categories:
The Swedish study was not included in the present project since it in no way is so detailed as the American counterpart (only information from 46 product groups). On the other hand it will be relevant to make a comparison of assessment and ranking in order to see whether the two methods give equal results for similar product groups. 5.7 ConclusionsAs reported above the model for selection of future target areas can be improved in a number of fields. These fields are:
Improvement and further development in all these fields will be very expensive in resources and it is not granted from the beginning that essential improvements can be achieved in all fields without creating simultaneously new problems in the form of weak spots. It is therefore recommended to create a structure of three superior phases in the further work: First, it is essential to stress which role the model has to play in the future product-oriented environmental action. Shall the model deal exclusively with the technical aspects or shall it also consider other aspects such as economy and political issues? How detailed should the information be for the desired use of the model? In which areas can overviews be accepted and in which areas are detailed information essential? Second, the amount of delimitations as described in this chapter shall be studied further. Is it of crucial importance that the model is based on American conditions and if so should the information be adapted to Danish conditions? The resources needed for adaptation and further development of the model in each area should be estimated. Finally, the model should be developed further with emphasis on the areas that will be ranked high.
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