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Waste Statistics 2003 7 New indicators for loss of resources and environmental impact7.1 Waste arisings and economic development To date, Denmark's environmental initiatives have been measured in terms of waste volumes. Denmark is one of the few countries in the EU which has been able to state its waste treatment and its total waste generation in tonnes for each year. A high level of recycling has typically been the criteria for good initiatives. In future, focus will continue to be on waste volumes, however initiatives will be based on an improved decision basis that links the environmental problems with the actual tonnage of waste Denmark in fact produces. Denmark has therefore developed and calculated a number of new indicators to inform us about the impacts on resources and the environment from waste. These indicators calculate resource and energy consumption, as well as landfilling demands for a number of different treatment options. Initially, we have calculated indicators for 22 materials found in waste. The purpose of the new indicators is to gain a better foundation for making decisions about waste management. The new indicators will enable us to prioritise and calculate whether it is better, in terms of the environment and resources, to recycle or incinerate a particular waste fraction. Unfortunately, existing data does not permit us to determine the size of the environmental benefit that would result from investing efforts in avoiding waste generation all together through waste-prevention initiatives. As of yet, our statistical base remains insufficient for this purpose. We will continue to use the amount of waste as an indicator for how well we are doing in the area of waste management. It is a simple indicator which is easy to use. However, this indicator will no longer stand alone. It will be supplemented by calculations of how many resources are lost with the waste; from the time the raw materials are recovered and the products produced through to when the waste is recycled, incinerated or landfilled. The first generation of these new indicators was published with Waste Strategy 2005-2008. However, we will only reap the full benefits of the new indicators once a series of indicators is available, calculated over a number of years. 7.1 Waste arisings and economic developmentThe challenge is to decouple the increase in waste volumes from general economic growth. Responsibility for solving the problem of increasing volumes of waste is shared by all sectors of society. Our initial goal is thus to ensure that the increase in waste generation does not occur at the same rate as the increase in economic development. Figure 20 shows that total waste arisings increased faster than economic growth in the period 1995 to 1996. This was followed by a decline in arisings, and yet another increase during 1999 to 2000. Since 2000, waste arisings seem to have been fairly stable. However, this applies only for total waste arisings. Waste generation is the result of all activities in society. If total waste generation is shown in proportion to gross national product (GNP), it provides an indication of the waste intensity in society. 
Figure 20. Development in waste generation compared to the economic development. The graph shows the relative changes in gross national product in constant prices [32] (GNP) and waste generation, as well as waste intensity, which is the relationship between the relative change in waste generation and the relative change in GNP. As can be seen from the figure, waste intensity declined until 1999 (decoupling), and subsequently waste intensity has been relatively constant, apart from a slight downward trend. This means that, by and large, the growth in waste arisings has corresponded to the growth in GNP since 1999. This development therefore does not indicate a decoupling; rather it indicates a fairly stable relationship between growth in waste volumes and economic growth, stated as GNP. Since waste arisings in a number of sectors are increasing, it is important to continue to work towards reducing the volumes of waste. Forecasts for future waste generation show that waste volumes will increase, unless active efforts are made to reduce them. This can be seen, for example, in the European Environment Agency's report, “Environment in EU at the turn of the century”. 7.2 New indicators for loss of resources and environmental impactNew waste indicators have been developed and calculated for resource loss and landfill requirements for 22 materials found in waste. These indicators express the environmental benefit associated with moving a particular waste fraction from landfill to recycling or incineration. This means that the loss of resources and energy when the entire waste fraction is landfilled is calculated for each material type and compared with a new treatment situation in which a realistic proportion of the waste fraction is either recycled or incinerated [33]. The indicators are calculated on the basis of waste arisings in 2000, and future arisings have not been forecast. The indicators can be used in environmental prioritisation of efforts with regard to the individual fractions, in that they can suggest whether it is more cost-beneficial, in terms of the environment and resources, to recycle waste or to incinerate it. In this way, the new indicators can be used to determine where we will achieve the minimum environmental impact. Furthermore, the indicators also constitute an important basis when we are to calculate the quality of waste management efforts. With the help of these new indicators we can designate specific areas to be the focus of future efforts. The first calculations of the indicators are available and can serve as a foundation for new initiatives. However, it is important to note that more thorough environmental and economic analyses of initiatives will be carried out before specific initiatives are implemented. The new indicators require a comprehensive LCA [34]data basis, a survey of material flows, and complicated calculations. Therefore, they are linked to some uncertainty. The method and statistical base have been through a thorough review and it has been concluded that the indicators undoubtedly provide a more accurate picture of the real environmental impacts than is the case for other existing indicators based only on waste volumes. However, the indicator for landfill requirements is extremely uncertain. Due to a lack of LCA data, it has not been possible to calculate the indicators for all waste fractions. Neither do the indicators include calculations of toxic effects, since there is no data basis in this area. It is therefore vital that the indicators are supplemented by a qualitative assessment of hazardous emissions from the processes in each material's life cycle, before any final decisions about new initiatives are made. New treatment methods have been developed for the fractions environmentally harmful PVC and impregnated wood. However, LCA data is not available for these processes, so the methods have not been included in the calculation of the indicators. 7.3 DefinitionsFor each selected material, the following three indicators have been calculated:
Resource consumption is stated in person-reserves (PR). Person-reserves are an indication of the quantity of the material in question available per person. (For non-renewable resources, the available quantity is calculated per person in the world. For renewable resources, however, the available quantity is calculated per person in the region.) Energy consumption is calculated in person-equivalents (PE). Person-equivalents correspond to the amount of energy (primary energy) consumed per person per year. Landfill requirements are also expressed in person-equivalents. In this case, a person-equivalent corresponds to the amount landfilled per person per year. 7.4 Materials and treatment optionsThe indicators are based on waste arisings in 2000, and waste management that year. Waste volumes led to landfills, incinerated, recycled and re-used are shown in Figure 21. As the figure shows, we landfill considerable volumes of paper and cardboard, impregnated wood and plaster. Paper and cardboard, wood, organic domestic waste and the many contributions from various plastic materials comprise the largest volumes of waste led to incineration. The largest volumes recycled are concrete, tiles, asphalt (including re-use), paper and cardboard, sludge, and iron and steel. 7.5 Indicator for resource savingsFigure 22 shows the amount of resources saved from existing waste treatment compared to a situation in which all waste is landfilled. Resource savings are divided into energy resources and other resources. Recycling of metals has provided one of the greatest contributions to the resource savings already achieved. Lead, tin and zinc are not shown in the figures, since the LCA data necessary to calculate the indicator is not available. However, it is estimated that the resource savings for lead, zinc, and tin would be at the same level as those for the other metals, as these resources have a relatively short supply horizon. Paper, wood, and the six plastic fractions contribute, in particular, to energy resource savings, as their incineration substitutes virgin raw materials in the electricity and heat generation process. The building materials, concrete, tiles and asphalt, are not shown in the figure, since there are no significant resource savings to be achieved from their recycling. This is because concrete, tiles and asphalt substitute resources which exist in plenty. Figure 23 shows the extent to which there is room for improvement, if, for example, we were able to recycle a larger proportion of a given fraction which today is being either incinerated or landfilled. Thus, we have an indicator value that shows how much more we can save resources by improving the way we currently manage our waste. A positive value indicates that an environmental benefit can be achieved, if we are able to save resources by changing existing waste treatment to “optimised waste treatment” involving increased recycling. Calculations include an assessment of how much more waste it would be realistic to recycle. For paper, plastic (excluding PVC), aluminium and copper, Figure 23 shows potential for significant resource savings by increasing the rate of recycling. For wood, resource savings can be achieved by increased incineration of waste wood in waste incineration plants. The figure also shows that we cannot save further resources by recycling greater volumes of organic domestic waste, automobile rubber, and oil than we already do. For PVC, it is assumed that a larger proportion of PVC waste will be landfilled due to environmental considerations, whereby savings in energy resources will be negative. 7.6 Indicators for energy savingsFigure 24 shows the amount of energy saved from existing waste treatment compared to a situation in which all waste is landfilled. Here we see, that we have already saved considerable energy by treating a majority of the materials suitable for incineration. This is an indication of the fact that incineration with energy recovery is an important element in existing waste management. The expansion of electricity-generating waste incineration plants over the last decade is an important contributor to the energy savings already achieved. When electricity is generated at waste incineration plants, natural gas and other fossil fuels are substituted by waste. Figure 25 shows the potential for improvement, if a larger proportion of a given fraction, which today is incinerated or landfilled, is instead recycled. Thus, we have an indicator value that shows how much more energy consumption we can save by improving the way we currently manage our waste. Figure 25 shows that there are further potentials for exploitation of energy resources in our waste. This means that energy resources can be saved from increased recycling of the individual waste fractions. However, this does not apply to organic domestic waste, PVC, and automobile rubber. Efforts to increase the recycling rate for aluminium and paper are a prerequisite to saving more energy resources. For most of the plastic materials, as well as for glass packaging, minor energy savings can be gained from an increased recycling rate in place of incineration. The great potential for further energy savings from treatment of waste wood is due to the fact that calculations are based on increased incineration in place of landfilling. 7.7 Indicators for landfill requirementsThe indicator values for landfill requirements are extremely uncertain. Figure 26 shows how much we have been able to reduce the landfill requirement through waste management in 2000 compared to a situation in which all waste is landfilled. The indicator value showing savings in landfill requirement indicates that existing waste management helps prevent large amounts of waste from being landfilled. Where possible, the indicator also includes the so-called “hidden material flows”. Hidden material flows are included in data on extraction of coal, and partly also in data on extraction of metals. Thus, the process of extraction of new materials or energy in order to replace materials lost to landfilling or incineration in itself involves producing waste which must be landfilled. For most of the metals the landfill requirement in connection with extraction of ore is significant. However, since data for the hidden material flows is insufficient, these have generally not been included in the calculations. If the hidden material flows were included in all calculations, figures would show significant potentials for reducing landfill requirements for most of the metals by increasing the rate of recycling. Figure 27 shows the potential for improvement, if a larger proportion of a given fraction, which today is incinerated or landfilled, is instead recycled. Thus, we have an indicator value that shows how much more landfill requirement we can save by improving the way we currently manage our waste. Glass and aluminium represent significant potentials for reducing landfill requirements, since the incineration of glass that is not recycled generates slag which, in turn, requires landfilling. Aluminium in thicknesses typically found in household waste, is not incinerated, and therefore does not contribute to the amount of slag. For several of the materials there is an increased landfill requirement. The increase in amounts of concrete, tiles, and PVC requiring landfilling is due to the fact that the demand for increased separation of contaminants in landfilled waste has been taken into consideration in the determination of future waste management. The demand for increased separation is in relation to the situation in 2000. For these fractions, there has been a change from recycling to landfilling. Results should be interpreted with caution, since the indicators comprise many different types of waste which have not been assessed according to their potential environmental impacts. 7.8 The new indicators in summaryWaste treatment in 2000, involving 66 per cent recycling, 24 per cent incineration, and 10 per cent landfilling, resulted in significant savings in resource consumption for waste consisting of paper and cardboard, wood, and the metals aluminium, iron and steel, as well as copper. Significant energy savings have been achieved from existing waste treatment of paper and cardboard, wood, PE plastic, aluminium, and iron and steel. Savings in landfill requirements from existing waste treatment cover almost all waste fractions, excluding impregnated wood, PVC, and sheet glass. The most important potentials for further savings in resource and energy consumption are in metals, paper, and plastic (excl. PVC). The greatest potentials for further savings in landfill requirements are in glass packaging and aluminium. 7.9 ConclusionThe development and calculation of the new indicators marks the onset of a valuable process. A process that will provide greater and more detailed knowledge on the environmental impacts of waste. The indicators contribute to a better foundation for making the right decisions in the waste area This is only the beginning of the process, and some years will have to pass before the indicators can serve as a well-developed and comprehensive tool for making priorities with regard to waste initiatives. However, this is the first step towards developing the proper tool, which will ensure better quality in Danish waste management. In combination with other knowledge on waste and socioeconomic calculations, the indicators are a good foundation for finding the most cost-effective solution for the environment. New indicators for additional environmental effects must be developed in future, and the data basis must be enhanced. Indicators already calculated must be updated on a regular basis to help ensure that the most environmentally beneficial waste treatments are used. Footnotes [32] Constant prices are prices for the year adjusted for inflation, and are thus an indicator of real growth. [33]In other words, these indicator values show what is saved when applying a given treatment option relative to landfilling the entire waste fraction in question.
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