| Bottom | | Front page |

Environmental Project No. 1092, 2006

Fuel use and emissions from non-road machinery in Denmark from 1985-2004 - and projections from 2005-2030

Contents

Preface

Summary

Sammendrag

1 Emission legislation

2 Fuel use and emission factors

• 2.1 Basis emission factors
• 2.2 Deterioration factors
• 2.3 Transient factors
• 2.4 Evaporation factors

3 Stock and operational data

• 3.1 Agriculture
• 3.1.1 Tractors
• 3.1.2 Harvesters
• 3.1.3 Machine pools
• 3.1.4 Other machinery
• 3.2 Forestry
• 3.3 Industry
• 3.3.1 Fork lifts
• 3.3.2 Construction machinery
• 3.3.3 Other
• 3.4 Household and gardening
• 3.4.1 Stock
• 3.4.2 Operational data
• 3.4.3 Other
• 3.5 Inland waterways
• 3.5.1 Stock
• 3.5.2 Operational data

4 Calculation procedure

5 Fuel use and emissions

• 5.1 Agriculture
• 5.1.1 Tractors
• 5.1.2 Harvesters
• 5.1.3 Machine pools
• 5.1.4 Other machinery
• 5.2 Forestry
• 5.3 Industry
• 5.3.1 Construction Machinery
• 5.3.2 Fork lifts
• 5.4 Household and gardening
• 5.5 Inland waterways
• 5.6 Uncertainties

6 Projections 2005-2030

• 6.1 Fuel use and emissions
• 6.1.1 Agriculture
• 6.1.2 Forestry
• 6.1.3 Industry
• 6.1.4 Household and gardening
• 6.1.5 Inland waterways

7 Conclusion

8 References

Annex 1

Annex 2

Annex 3

Annex 4

Annex 5

Annex 6

Preface

The non road sector comprises a large group of different types of mobile machinery and working equipment. The machines are used in the agricultural and forestry sectors, for building and construction purposes, by the manufacturing industry, and by private and professionals for household and gardening purposes. A certain use of recreational craft also takes place. Taken as a whole, the non road sector shares of the Danish fuel use and emission totals are significant, and the need for accurate and detailed emission data in the annual national emission inventories makes it necessary to make precise emission calculations for the non road sector also.

The National Environmental Research Institute of Denmark (NERI) is responsible for the annual Danish emission reporting to the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention of Climate Changes) and the UNECE CLRTAP (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe Convention of Long Range Transboundary Air Pollutants) conventions and the EU Monitoring Mechanism. In the national inventory, the non road machinery types are classified as equipment used in agriculture, forestry, industry, household/gardening and inland waterways, and fuel use and emission figures are stored in the central CollectER database for all Danish sources.

Outside the official national system for inventorying and annual emission reporting, three specific Danish studies have been made to quantify the fuel use and emissions from non road machinery and recreational craft.

A 1990 inventory was made in two separate studies by Dansk Teknologisk Institut (1992 and 1993), covering all non road sources. The 1992 report comprised fuel use and emission results for agricultural machinery and construction machinery, while the 1993 study contained a fuel use and emission inventory for small working equipment in industry, households and gardening. The latter study also included fuel use and emission estimates for recreational craft. An updated inventory for 2000 was made by Bak et al. (2003) with a special focus on agricultural machines, fork lifts, household and gardening equipment, and recreational craft.

Until now, much of the Danish background data gathered has been used together with European fuel use and emission factors from EMEP/CORINAIR (2003), to make the official Danish non road emission estimates. However, due to the relative importance of the non road emission sources and due to the fact that much of the operational data and fuel use/emission information used in the NERI inventory has been outdated, there is a pressing need for a complete inventory revision.

The aims of this project is to make an updated 1985-2004 inventory of fuel use and the emissions of SO₂, NO_x, NMVOC, CH₄, CO, CO₂, N₂O, NH₃ and TSP for non road machinery and recreational craft. An important task is to gather new stock and operational data for the most important types of machinery and to obtain new fuel use and emission data for the non road sector in general. The fuel use and emission results are aggregated into subtotals for agriculture, forestry, industry, household/gardening and inland waterways, as required by the CollectER database system. In addition a 2005-2030 fuel use and emission forecast is presented.

Chapter 1 explains the EU emission legislation for non road machinery and recreational craft, and the actual fuel use and emission factors used in the inventory are provided in Chapter 2. Chapter 3 gives a thorough documentation of the data sources behind stock and operational data and a transformation of these into inventory input formats. In Chapter 4 the fuel use and emission calculation methods are described, and the calculated 1985-2004 results and the 2005-2030 forecast estimates are shown in Chapter 5 and 6, respectively. The project conclusions are found in Chapter 7.

The project steering group consisted of Lise Bjergbakke, The Ministry of Transport and Energy, Ken Friis Hansen, Danish Technological Institute, Jens Johnsen Høy, Danish Agricultural Advisory Service, Thomas Pedersen, The Association of Danish Agricultural Machinery Dealers, Peter Dal and Thomas Jensen, the Danish Energy Authority, and Ulrik Torp, Erik Iversen, Lisbeth Strandmark and Dorte Kubel, Danish Environmental Protection Agency.

Many thanks should be given to Kaj Andersen, Importørforeningen, Jens Johnsen Høy, Danish Agricultural Advisory Service, Mogens Kjeldal, the Association of Danish Machine Pools, Thomas Pedersen, The Association of Danish Agricultural Machinery Dealers, Claus Grøn Sørensen, Research Center Bygholm, and John Aagaard, IFAG, for provided data and information used in the project calculations.

Summary

This report documents the updated 1985-2004 fuel use and emission inventory for non road machinery and recreational craft in Denmark. The inventory comprises the emission components of SO₂, NO_x, NMVOC, CH₄, CO, CO₂, N₂O, NH₃ and TSP, and in addition a fuel use and emission forecast is presented from 2005-2030. The calculated results are grouped into the sub-sectors agriculture, forestry, industry, household/gardening and inland waterways, according to the structure of the CollectER database used for all Danish sources.

The report explains the existing EU emission directives for non road machinery, the actual fuel use and emission factors used, sources of background and operational data, calculation methods and the calculated fuel use and emission results.

EU emission directives

The emission directives agreed by the EU relates to both diesel and gasoline fuelled non road machinery, and list specific emission limit values for NO_x, VOC (in some cases NO_x + VOC), CO and particulates. The specific limit values (g/kWh) depend on engine size (kW for diesel, ccm for gasoline) and date of implementation (referring to engine market date).

For diesel engines, the EU directives 97/68 (emission stage I and II) and 2004/26 (emission stage IIIA, IIIB and IV) relates to non road machinery other than agricultural and forestry tractors, whereas for tractors the relevant directives are 2000/25 (emission stage I and II) and 2005/13 (emission stage IIIA, IIIB and IV). For gasoline engines, the EU directive 2002/88 (emission stage I and II) distinguishes between hand held (SH) and not hand held (NS) types of machinery.

For recreational craft, the EU directive 2003/44 comprises emission legislation limits for diesel and for 2-stroke and 4-stroke gasoline engines, respectively. The CO and VOC emission limits depend on engine size (kW), whereas for NO_x, a constant limit value is given for each of the three engine types. For TSP a constant emission limit regards diesel engines only.

Fuel use and emission factors

The emission factors used in the Danish inventory are grouped into EU emission legislation categories. However, for engines older than directive first level implementation dates three additional emission level classes are added so that a complete matrix of fuel use and emission factors underpins the inventory.

Actual measured factors of fuel use and NO_x, VOC, CO and TSP emissions, predominantly come from IFEU (2004) together with factors for deterioration, transient engine loads and gasoline evaporation. EMEP/CORINAIR (2003) is the source of N₂O and NH₃ emission factors, whereas the CH₄/NMVOC split of VOC is taken from USEPA (2004). The determination of emission factors for future machinery is based on own judgement, taking into account today’s emission factors for new machinery and future EU emission legislation limits.

Stock and operational data

For agricultural tractors and harvesters, total fleet numbers and new sales/engine size figures are provided by Statistics Denmark and The Association of Danish Agricultural Machinery Dealers, respectively. The latter organisation has also provided new sales numbers for the most important types of construction machinery. Fork lift new sales/lifting capacity data is provided by IFAG. For household and gardening equipment and recreational craft, total stock numbers and engine sizes per machinery/vessel type have been assumed based on personal communication with people employed in relevant professional bodies, large engine manufacturers, research institutes etc.

Data for load factors, annual working hours and engine lifetime are primarily from the existing non road inventory model. However, in some cases data have been updated and/or new data added through discussions with external key experts for the relevant types of non road machinery.

Calculation procedure

The fuel use and emissions are calculated as the product of the number of engines, annual working hours, average rated engine size, load factor, and fuel use/emission factors. For diesel and gasoline engines, the deterioration effects (due to engine ageing) are included in the emission calculation equation by using deterioration factors according to engine type, size, age, lifetime and emission level. For diesel engines before Stage IIIB and IV, transient operational effects are also considered by using average transient factors.

The evaporation of gasoline hydrocarbon emissions is also estimated from the fuelling procedure and because of tank evaporation. The tank loading emissions are calculated as the product of total gasoline fuel use and evaporation factors (g NMVOC/kg fuel), whereas tank evaporation emissions are found as the product of engine numbers and evaporation factors (g NMVOC/year).

Fuel use and emission results

The diesel fuelled machinery in agriculture and industry are the most important sources of fuel use and emissions of SO₂, NO_x, CO₂, N₂O, NH₃ and TSP in 2004. Agricultural tractors is the most dominant single source, with fuel use and emission totals of around one third of the grand totals for land based non road machinery.

For diesel machinery as a total, the fuel use and emissions of SO₂, CO₂, NMVOC, CH4, CO and TSP decrease by 6, 91, 6, 43, 43, 33 and 54%, respectively, from 1985-2004. In the same time period the emissions of NO_x, N₂O and NH₃ increase by 4, 2 and 2%, respectively.

The trend in total diesel fuel use (and CO₂) is dominated by a decrease in fuel use for agricultural machinery, and an increase in fuel use especially for non road construction machinery and fork lifts. The significant SO₂ emission decline is caused by a large reduction of the sulphur content in non road diesel. For NO_x, the slight emission increase is due to the relatively large 1991-stage I emission factors, whereas the large emission reductions for NMVOC, CH₄, CO and TSP are due to the gradually improved engine emission techonology for these emission components.

The development towards cleaner diesel engines continues in the future, and for NO_x, NMVOC, CH₄, CO and TSP the total emissions are expected to decrease by 81, 78, 78, 63 and 85% from 2004-2030. This is due to the gradually strengthened future EU emission standards. A significant reduction of the sulphur content for diesel in 2005 cuts down the diesel related SO₂ emissions by as much as 98%. In the 2004-2030 time period a moderate decline in fuel use and CO₂, N₂O and NH₃ emissions is expected, mainly due to a decrease in the use of agricultural tractors.

Most of the NMVOC, CH₄ and CO emissions come from gasoline fuelled working machinery. Set in relation to the total land based non road emissions, the NMVOC emission share is 26% for chain saws used in forestry and for household, and for CH₄ and CO the emission shares for riders (private and professional) are 34 and 53%, respectively.

From 1985-2004 the emissions of NMVOC, CH₄ and CO from gasoline machinery increase by 18, 12 and 8%, respectively. From a broad perspective the engines have become more emission efficient, since the total gasoline fuel use has increased by 39% in the same time period. In the forecast period from 2004-2030 the gasoline related fuel use and emissions of NMVOC and CH₄ is expected to decrease by 5, 34 and 11%, respectively, whereas an emission increase of 9% is expected for CO. Here, small or zero emission factor reductions for stage I and II engines in combination with higher deterioration factors cause the CO emissions for gasoline machinery to increase even after the time of stage I and II engines entering the market.

For recreational craft, most of the fuel use, SO₂, NO_x, CO₂, N₂O, NH₃ and TSP emissions are attributed to the diesel engine category, while most of the NMVOC, CH₄ and CO emissions come from gasoline fuelled engines, as is the case for land based non road machinery. However, compared to the latter machinery group, the fuel use and emissions from sailing vessels are small.

From 1985 to 2004 there has been a large increase in sailing activities, most significantly for diesel fuelled boats, and a gradual shift from 2-stroke to 4-stroke technology for gasoline engines. These tendencies are reflected in the increases of fuel use (188%), N₂O (300%), NH₃ (258%), NO_x (239%), SO₂ (201%), CO₂ (189%), TSP (106%), CO (81%), CH₄ (75%) and NMVOC (13%). The overall diesel fuel increase is the main reason for the SO₂, NO_x, CO₂, N₂O, NH₃ and TSP emission growths, whereas the increase in gasoline fuel use explains the CO and CH₄ emission inclines. The small NMVOC emission increase is explained by the gasoline engine shift to the more environmentally friendly 4-stroke technology, since total gasoline fuel use has gone up with 50% from 1985 to 2004.

From 2004 to 2030 the emissions of NMVOC and CO are expected to decrease significantly due to the 2-stroke/4-stroke technology shift (NMVOC) and the relatively low future EU 2003/44 directive emission limit. The latter explanation also applies for the NO_x and TSP emission decreases, mainly driven by the emission trend for diesel fuelled boats.

Conclusion

The present project has provided valuable new Danish information for different types of non road machinery and recreational craft, in terms of stock and operational data, fuel use and emission factors, and calculated results. The new non road inventory model is facilitated to produce annual fuel use and emission estimates both for historical years and projection years in order to fulfil various national obligations.

An important outcome of the present study has also been the establishment of contacts with Danish experts dealing with statistical data and experts from research institutes, relevant professional bodies, machinery manufacturers, etc. It is the goal to obtain information of new sales and total stock on an annual basis, in order to ensure continuously updated inventories. To the extent that statistical numbers are produced, new sales figures for tractors, harvesters, construction machinery and fork lifts should be gathered together with total stock data for household/gardening machinery, and recreational craft.

On a European level, the purpose of the EMEP/CORINAIR guidebook published by the European Environment Agency is to provide inventory support for country estimates. However, the guidebook data are more than ten years old and consequently the demand for new data is becoming more and more urgent. The fuel use and emission data used in the German inventory (IFEU, 2004) and in the present report are able to solve this task, and work should therefore be made to include these data in the EMEP/CORINAIR guidebook.

Sammendrag

Denne rapport indeholder de opdaterede danske opgørelser af energiforbrug og emissioner for non road arbejdsredskaber og maskiner samt fritidsfartøjer for perioden 1985-2004. Rapporten indeholder emissionsresultater for SO₂, NO_x, NMVOC, CH₄, CO, CO₂, N₂O, NH₃ og TSP, og derudover præsenteres en emissionsfremskrivning for perioden 2005-2030. Resultaterne er grupperet indenfor sektorerne landbrug, skovbrug, industri, have- og hushold samt fritidsfartøjer, der benyttes af CollectER databasen i det nationale system for emissionsopgørelser.

I Rapporten gennemgås også den eksisterende EU emissionslovgivning for non road maskinel og fritidsfartøjer samt de benyttede faktorer for brændstof og emissioner. Derudover dokumenteres opgørelsens aktivitetsdata og -kilder, samt beregningsmetoden og de beregnede energi- og emissionsresultater.

EU emissionslovgivning

Den eksisterende EU emissionslovgivning for motorer der benyttes i non road maskiner og fritidsfartøjer omhandler både diesel og benzin. De enkelte emissionsdirektiver anviser specifikke emissionsgrænseværdier for NO_x, VOC (i visse tilfælde NO_x + VOC), CO og partikler. Grænseværdierne (g/kWh) afhænger af motorstørrelse (kW for diesel og ccm for benzin) og implementeringsdato (henført til markedsføringstidspunkt).

For dieselmotorer generelt (undtagen motorer installeret i traktorer) anvises emissionsgrænseværdier i EU direktiverne 97/68 (emissionstrin I og II) og 2004/26 (emissionstrin IIIA, IIIB og IV). For motorer installeret i traktorer reguleres emissionerne i direktiv 2000/25 (emissionstrin I og II) og 2005/13 (emissionstrin IIIA, IIIB og IV). For benzinmotorer opdeles emissionsgrænseværdierne efter håndbåret og ikke håndbåret maskinel i EU direktivet 2002/88 (emissionstrin I og II).

For fritidsfartøjer indeholder EU direktivet 2003/44 emissionsgrænseværdier for dieselmotorer samt 2- og 4-takt benzinmotorer. Grænseværdierne for CO og VOC afhænger af motorstørrelsen (kW), mens der anvises en konstant emissionsgrænseværdi for NO_x (en for hver motortype) og TSP (kun diesel).

Brændstof- og emissionsfaktorer

De benyttede emissionsfaktorer er grupperet efter EU lovgivningens kategorier. For at repræsentere de motorer der er ældre end først gældende implementeringsår, er der lavet yderligere tre aldersgrupperinger, sådan at en komplet matrix af brændstof- og emissionsfaktorer understøtter projektets beregninger.

For det nutidige materiel stammer faktorerne for brændstofforbrug, NO_x, VOC, CO og TSP fra faktiske målinger (IFEU, 2004). Den samme kilde indeholder data for emissionsændringer som følge af forværrelse, transient drift og benzinfordampning. Kilden til N₂O og NH₃ emissionsfaktorerne er EMEP/CORINAIR (2003), og opdelingen af VOC i CH₄ og NMVOC er taget fra USEPA (2004). Bestemmelse af emissionsfaktorerne for det fremtidige maskinel er gjort ud fra egne vurderinger, hvor der er taget højde for emissionsfaktorerne i dagens situation samt de fremtidige EU emissionsgrænseværdier.

Bestands- og driftsdata

Data for totalbestanden af landbrugstraktorer og mejetærskere er oplyst af Danmarks Statistik, og nysalg pr. motorstørrelse er fremskaffet fra Dansk Maskinhandlerforening. Den sidstnævnte brancheforening har også angivet det samlede nysalg for de vigtigste typer af entreprenørmateriel. Data for nysalg af gaffeltrucks (pr. løfteevne) er oplyst af IFAG. For haveredskaber og -maskiner samt fritidsfartøjer er totalbestande og motorstørrelser anslået ud fra diskussioner med brancheorganisationer, store maskinforhandlere, forskningsinstitutioner m.v.

Data for lastfaktorer, årlige driftstimer og levetider stammer hovedsageligt fra den eksisterende non road model. I visse tilfælde er der dog sket opdateringer eller tilføjelser af nye data ud fra diskussioner med eksterne eksperter for de konkrete typer af materiel.

Beregningsmetode

Energiforbrug og emissioner beregnes som produktet af antal maskiner, gennemsnitlig motorstørrelse, lastfaktor, årlige driftstimer og brændstof/emissionsfaktor. For diesel og benzinmotorer inkluderes emissionsforværrelse i beregningerne ved at bruge forværrelsesfaktorer der afhænger af motorens type, størrelse, alder, levetid og emissionstrin. For dieselmotorer før trin IIIB og IV justeres for varierende motordrift ved brug af gennemsnitlige transientfaktorer.

Fordampningen af kulbrinter fra benzinmotorer beregnes for brændstofpåfyldning og tankfordampning. For brændstofpåfyldning beregnes emissionerne pr. maskintype som produktet af det totale benzinforbrug og fordampningsfaktoren (g NMVOC/kg brændstof), mens tankfordampningsemissionerne findes som antal maskiner gange fordampningsfaktoren (g NMVOC/år).

Resultater

De dieseldrevne maskiner i landbrug og industri har de største energiforbrug og er de vigtigste non road emissionskilder for SO₂, NO_x, CO₂, N₂O, NH₃ og TSP i 2004. Landbrugstraktorer er den største enkeltkilde med energiforbrugs- og emissionsandele på omkring en tredjedel af den samlede totaler for de landbaserede non road maskiner.

For dieselmotorerne falder det samlede energiforbrug med 6%, og SO₂, CO₂, NMVOC, CH4, CO og TSP emissionerne falder med hhv. 91, 6, 43, 43, 33 og 54%, fra 1985 til 2004. I samme periode stiger NO_x, N₂O og NH₃ emissionerne med hhv. 4, 2 og 2%.

Udviklingen i det samlede dieselforbrug (og CO₂ emission) drives hovedsageligt af et fald i energiforbruget for landbrugsmaskiner og en stigning i energiforbruget for entreprenørmateriel og gaffeltrucks. Det markante SO₂ emissionsfald skyldes en stor reduktion af svovlindholdet i diesel. Grunden til den lille stigning i NO_x emissionen er de relativt store emissionsfaktorer for 1991-trin I motorer. De store emissionsfald for NMVOC, CH₄, CO og TSP skyldes den gradvist forbedrede motorteknologi mht. disse emissionstyper.

Udviklingen mod renere dieselmotorer fortsætter i fremtiden, og pga. de gradvist skærpede EU emissionsnormer falder totalemissionen for NO_x, NMVOC, CH₄, CO og TSP med hhv. 81, 78, 78, 63 og 85% fra 2004 til 2030. En markant reduktion af svovlindholdet i diesel (fra 2005) får de dieselrelaterede SO₂ emissioner til at falde med hele 98% i samme periode. Samtidigt ses et lille fald i dieselforbruget samt CO₂, N₂O og NH₃ emissionerne, hvilket hovedsageligt skyldes en mindre brug af landbrugstraktorer.

Størsteparten af NMVOC, CH₄ og CO emissionerne kommer fra de benzindrevne motorer. NMVOC emissionsandelen for kædesave (skovbrug og havebrug) er 26%, og CH₄ og CO emissionsandelene for riders (privat og professionel) er hhv. 34 og 53%, set i forhold til de samlede totaler for alle landbaserede non road maskiner.

Fra 1985 til 2004 stiger NMVOC, CH₄ og CO emissionerne fra benzinmotorer med hhv. 18, 12 og 8%. Overordnet set er motorerne blevet gradvist renere i perioden, da benzinforbruget stiger med 39%. I prognoseperioden fra 2004 til 2030 forventes et fald i benzinforbruget og NMVOC and CH₄ emissionerne med hhv. 5, 34 og 11%, hvorimod CO emissionerne forventes at stige med 9%. For CO gælder, at små eller slet ingen basisemissionsforbedringer for trin I og II motorer kombineret med relativt store forværrelsesfaktorer får de samlede emissioner til at stige, selv efter tidspunktet hvor trin I og II maskinerne bliver taget i brug.

For fritidsfartøjer beregnes det største energiforbrug og størsteparten af SO₂, NO_x, CO₂, N₂O, NH₃ og TSP emissionerne for dieselmotorer, mens hovedparten af NMVOC, CH₄ and CO emissionerne kommer fra benzinmotorerne, ganske som for de landbaserede non road maskiner. Sammenlignet med denne maskingruppe er energiforbruget og emissionerne fra fritidsfartøjer dog små.

Fra 1985 til 2004 har der været en stor stigning i sejlaktiviteten, mest markant for både med dieselmotorer. Derudover er sket et gradvist skifte i de solgte benzinmotorer fra 2-takt til 4-takt. Disse ændringer afspejles i stigningen for det samlede energiforbrug (188%), og emissionerne af N₂O (300%), NH₃ (258%), NO_x (239%), SO₂ (201%), CO₂ (189%), TSP (106%), CO (81%), CH₄ (75%) og NMVOC (13%). Den generelle stigning i dieselforbruget er hovedårsagen til emissionsvæksten for SO₂, NO_x, CO₂, N₂O, NH₃ og TSP, mens emissionsstigningerne for CO og CH₄ hovedsageligt skyldes væksten i benzinforbruget. Den begrænsede stigning i NMVOC emissionen skyldes skiftet til den mere miljøvenlige 4-takt motorteknologi, idet det samlede benzinforbrug er steget med 50% fra 1985 til 2004.

Fra 2004 til 2030 falder NMVOC og CO emissionerne markant, dels pga. skiftet fra 2- til 4-takt motorer (især NMVOC) og dels pga. den relativt lave fremtidige EU 2003/44 emissionsnorm. Den sidstnævnte emissionsnorm giver også et beregnet emissionsfald for NO_x og TSP i prognoseperioden (mest markant for diesel).

Konklusion

Dette projekt har tilføjet ny vigtig viden om bestands- og driftsdata, faktorer for brændstofforbrug og emissioner, og samlede emissioner og energiforbrug for non road maskiner og fritidsfartøjer i Danmark. Den nye non road model er skabt til at beregne emissioner og energiforbrug både for historiske år og prognoseår, på en måde der sikrer opfyldelsen af de forskellige nationale forpligtigelser.

Et vigtigt udbytte af projektet har også været de kontakter der er knyttet til danske eksperter indenfor statistiske data, forskningsinstitutioner, forskellige brancheorganisationer, store maskinforhandlere, osv. For at sikre en kontinuerlig opdatering af emissionsopgørelsen, er det målet at fremskaffe årlig information om nysalg og totalbestande. I det omfang at data er tilgængelige, skal data indhentes for nysalget af traktorer, mejetærskere, entreprenørmateriel og gaffeltrucks, samt totalbestanden for haveredskaber og fritidsfartøjer.

På europæisk plan er formålet med EMEP/CORINAIR guidebogen at understøtte beregningen af nationale emissionsopgørelser, men for non road maskiner er de publicerede brændstof- og emissionsdata mere end ti år gamle. Der er med andre ord et stort behov for en opdatering af EMEP/CORINAIR guidebogen på dette område. Databehovet kan dækkes at de brændstof- og emissionsdata der bruges af IFEU (2004) og i nærværende rapport, og et arbejde bør derfor gøres for at inkludere disse i en ny version af guidebogen.

1 Emission legislation

The engines used for non road mobile purposes have to comply with the emission legislation limits agreed by the EU. The emission directives relate to both diesel and gasoline fuelled non road machinery, and list specific emission limit values (g/kWh) depending on engine size (kW for diesel, ccm for gasoline) and date of implementation (referring to engine market date).

For diesel, the directives 97/68 and 2004/26 relates to non road machinery other than agricultural and forestry tractors, and the directives have different implementation dates for machinery operating under transient and constant loads. For tractors the relevant directives are 2000/25 and 2005/13. For gasoline, the directive 2002/88 distinguishes between hand held (SH) and not hand held (NS) types of machinery.

For engine type approval, the emissions are measured using various test cycles (ISO 8178). Each test cycle consists of a number of measurement points for specific engine loads during constant operation. The specific test cycle used depends of the machinery type in question, and the test cycles are described in more details in the directives.

Table 1 Overview of EU emission directives relevant for diesel fuelled non road machinery

Table 2 Overview of the EU emission directive 2002/88 for gasoline fuelled non road machinery

For small boats and pleasure crafts, directive 2003/44 comprises the emission legislation limits for diesel and for 2-stroke and 4-stroke gasoline engines, respectively. The CO and VOC emission limits depend on engine size (P=kW), and the inserted parameters given in the calculation formulas in Table 3. For NO_x, a constant limit value is given for each of the three engine types. For TSP, the constant emission limit regards diesel engines only.

Table 3 Overview of the EU emission directive 2003/44 for small boats and pleasure crafts (P=kW)

2 Fuel use and emission factors

• 2.1 Basis emission factors
• 2.2 Deterioration factors
• 2.3 Transient factors
• 2.4 Evaporation factors

The emission factors used for emission calculations are classified according to the current emission legislation (see Chapter 1). For engines older than directive first implementation dates three additional emission level classes are added so that a complete matrix of fuel use and emission factors underpins the inventory.

Factors which also influence the emission estimates are engine ageing effects (deterioration factors), transient engine loads (transient factors) and the evaporation of gasoline fuels. Background data are also gathered in order to incorporate these effects in the fuel use and emission calculations.

2.1 Basis emission factors

For diesel engines actual fuel use and emission measurements of NO_x, VOC, CO and TSP are behind the fuel use and emission factors for Stage II engine levels and before (IFEU, 2004). For Stage IIIA, IIIB and IV engines, the emission factors are estimated using the following assumption: If the emission factor constructed as 90% of the emission legislation value is higher than the Stage II value, for a given component and emission stage, the Stage II value is used. Otherwise, the 90% figure of the legislation value is used.

For Stage IIIA (all engine sizes, P=kW) and Stage IIIB (37<=P<56) the emission legislation limits are given as the sum of NO_x and VOC (see Table 1). The constructed Stage IIIA emission factors for NO_x and VOC are calculated as 90% of the product of the Stage IIIA (NO_x+VOC) emission limit and the NO_x/(NO_x+VOC) or the VOC/(NO_x+VOC) ratio for the corresponding Stage II emission limit.

For N₂O and NH₃ the emission factors are taken from EMEP/CORINAIR (2003).

Table 4 Fuel use and emission factors for diesel fuelled non road machinery

For gasoline engines, the fuel use and NO_x, VOC, CO and TSP (2-stroke only) emission factors are taken from IFEU (2004). For engines prior to stage I, the fuel use and emission factors are measured in various measurement programmes. For stage I and II engines a large number of type approval test results are used. The emission factor source for 4-stroke TSP is TNO (2001). For N₂O and NH₃ the emission factors are taken from EMEP/CORINAIR (2003). The emission factors used for hand held (SH) and not hand held (SN) types of working equipment are listed in the tables 5 and 6, for 4-stroke and 2-stroke engines respectively.

Table 5 Fuel use and emission factors for 4-stroke gasoline non road machinery

Table 6 Fuel use and emission factors for 2-stroke gasoline non road machinery

For LPG the fuel use factor and the emission factors of CO, VOC, NO_x and TSP shown in Table 7 are taken from IFEU (2004). For N₂O and NH₃ the emission factors are taken from EMEP/CORINAIR (2003).

Table 7 Fuel use and emission factors for LPG fork lifts

The emission factors for All terrain Vehicles (ATV) are derived from the European COPERT III road transport emission model as aggregated fuel related emission factors for small conventional motorcycles under urban driving conditions (Ntziachristos et al., 2000).

Table 8 Fuel use and emission factors for ATV's

For recreational craft, the emission factors are shown in Table 8. For engines complying with Directive 2003/44, the CO and VOC emission legislation limits rely on engine size, and are calculated by inserting the engine size value into the CO and VOC emission factor equations in Table 3 (Chapter 1).

The final emission factors for CO, VOC, NO_x and TSP are estimated using the assumption that if the emission factor constructed as 90% of the emission legislation value is higher than the conventional emission factor, the latter value is used. Otherwise, the 90% figure of the Directive 2003/44 legislation value is used.

For N₂O and NH₃ the emission factors are taken from EMEP/CORINAIR (2003).

Table 9 Fuel use and emission factors for recreational craft

Click here to see Table 9

The emission factors for NMVOC and CH₄ are derived from the VOC emission factor using CH₄ shares of VOC reported by USEPA (2004) for diesel and gasoline. The CH₄ shares for LPG are taken from EMEP/CORINAIR (2003).

Table 10 CH₄ shares of VOC for diesel, gasoline and LPG

2.2 Deterioration factors

The emissions from non road machinery increase as engines become older, and the deterioration factor expresses the emission factor increase during the entire engine lifetime, relative to the basis emission factor. The deterioration factors are taken from IFEU (2004) and are shown in the Tables 11-13 for diesel, 2-stroke gasoline and 4-stroke gasoline, respectively.

Table 11 Deterioration factors for diesel machinery

Table 12 Deterioration factors for gasoline 2-stroke machinery

Table 13 Deterioration factors for gasoline 4-stroke machinery

2.3 Transient factors

To account for fuel use and emission changes due to varying engine loads, transient factors, see IFEU (2004), are used in the fuel use and emission calculations for diesel machinery. In the inventory, the high load region is defined for load factors $0.4.

For stage IIIB and IV the EU type approval test procedure takes into account transient engine loads, and hence the transient factors become 1 for diesel machinery of these emission levels.

Table 14 Transient factors for diesel machinery

2.4 Evaporation factors

The evaporation of hydrocarbons during the fuelling procedure and from the fuel tank is estimated using evaporation factors. For fuelling and fuel tank evaporation, respectively, the emission factors are expressed as g NMVOC per kg fuel and g NMVOC per year. The emission factors are from IFEU (2004), and are listed in Annex 5 for all types of gasoline machinery.

3 Stock and operational data

• 3.1 Agriculture
• 3.1.1 Tractors
• 3.1.2 Harvesters
• 3.1.3 Machine pools
• 3.1.4 Other machinery
• 3.2 Forestry
• 3.3 Industry
• 3.3.1 Fork lifts
• 3.3.2 Construction machinery
• 3.3.3 Other
• 3.4 Household and gardening
• 3.4.1 Stock
• 3.4.2 Operational data
• 3.4.3 Other
• 3.5 Inland waterways
• 3.5.1 Stock
• 3.5.2 Operational data

3.1 Agriculture

3.1.1 Tractors

Stock

For each inventory year, the distribution of agricultural tractors into numbers per new sales year has been established using information from Statistics Denmark, The Association of Danish Agricultural Machinery Dealers (Dansk Maskinhandlerforening) and Danish Agricultural Advisory Service (Dansk Landbrugsrådgivning - Landscentret).

The total number of tractors from 1985 to 2000 in agriculture and forestry is given by Statistics Denmark (2005), based on information from questionnaires and registers of crop subsidy application kept by the Ministry of Agriculture. To obtain the number of agricultural diesel tractors, the number of gasoline tractors and forestry tractors (diesel) are subtracted from the overall totals. The latter sector’s fleet numbers are obtained from KVL (2005).

Figures for the total number of gasoline tractors exist for 1974 (Statistics Denmark, 1974), and 1990 (Teknologisk Institut, 1992). Since no new sales has occured since the beginning of the 1970’s, a linear decrease in stock numbers between 1974 and 1990, and a gradual phasing out of gasoline tractors after 1990 (using same increment) is assumed (Høy, 2005).

For each year in the inventory period, the number of diesel tractors in agriculture is distributed into size classes, using new sale figures from The Association of Danish Agricultural Machinery Dealers (2005a), and a tractor lifetime of 30 years (Teknologisk Institut, 1992). The 1982 new sales distribution is used for the years before 1982, and for 2004, the figures for 2003 is used. For each inventory year the ratio between total stock (Statistics Denmark) and estimated stock (from new sales/lifetime) is used to adjust the stock-engine size distribution, in order to end up with the total stock numbers given by Statistics Denmark. For 2001-2004 the adjustment ratio for 2000 is used.

Figure 1 Total numbers in kW classes (< 80 kW) for tractors from 1985 to 2004

Figure 2 Total numbers in kW classes (> 80 kW) for tractors from 1985 to 2004

The total number of agricultural tractors per year are shown in the Figures 1 and 2, for engine sizes < 80 kW and > 80 kW, respectively. The Figures clearly show a decrease in the number of small tractors, being replaced by tractors in the large engine size ranges. The overall development towards smaller tractor numbers and increasing engine sizes is also visible from Figure 3. The number of vehicles decreases with 20% from 1985 to 2004, whereas the average engine size increase around 16% in the same time period.

Figure 3 Total numbers and average engine size for tractors from 1985 to 2004

The emission level shares for the Danish stock of diesel tractors are shown in Figure 4. The specific stage I and II implementation years rely on engine size (see Chapter 1), and therefore individual size segment shares differ slightly from the Figure 4 overall country shares.

Figure 4 Emission level shares for tractors from 1985 to 2004

The number of gasoline fuelled tractors is shown in Figure 5, distributed into certified and non certified tractors. The split between certified and non certified tractors is given by Høy (2005) and Teknologisk Institut (1992).

Figure 5 Total numbers of gasoline fuelled tractors from 1985 to 2004

The stock distribution of diesel tractors into engine size and emission levels, and the number of gasoline tractors used in the inventory from 1985-2004 are given in Annex 1.

Operational data

For 0-7 year old diesel tractors the number of annual working hours is assumed to be 500. For 7-16 year old tractors the annual working hours gradually decrease from 500 to a level of 100, which is also used for tractors older than 16 year (Bak et al., 2003).

The load factor for diesel tractors is assumed to be 0.5 (Bak et al., 2003). A similar load factor was calculated in the present project as a part of an assessment of the inventory operational data. The calculations were based on figures for engine loads and annual hours for different types of tractor usage provided by Sørensen (2005), for three different farm types (see also Iversen et al., 1987).

An overview of annual working hours and load factors used for agricultural tractors in all inventory years is given in Table 15.

Table 15 Annual working hours, load factors and lifetimes for agricultural tractors

3.1.2 Harvesters

Stock

As for tractors, the total number of harvesters from 1985 to 2000 is given by Statistics Denmark (2005). For each year in the inventory period, the number of harvesters is distributed into new sales year and size classes, using new sale figures from The Association of Danish Agricultural Machinery Dealers (2005b), and a harvester lifetime of 25 years (Høy, 2005). The 1982 new sales distribution is used for the years before 1982, and for 2004, the figures for 2003 are used.

New sales figures are given in numbers per harvester platform width (ft), and to transform these into actual engine sizes a kW:ft ratio is assumed based on information from Høy (2005). The latter source assume a kW:ft ratio of 5 in 1985 and 10 in 2004. A linear interpolation is used to produce the kW:ft ratio’s for the years in between.

In order to end up with the total stock numbers given by Statistics Denmark, an adjustment ratio between total stock (Statistics Denmark) and estimated stock (from new sales/lifetime) is used to correct each inventory year’s stock-engine size distribution. Due to lack of data, the adjustment ratio for 2000 is used also for 2001-2004.

Figure 6 Total numbers in kW classes (<= 160 kW) for harvesters from 1985 to 2004

Figure 7 Total numbers in kW classes (> 160 kW) for harvesters from 1985 to 2004

The total number of harvesters per year are shown in the Figures 6 and 7, for engine sizes < 160 kW and > 160 kW, respectively. The figures clearly show a decrease in the number of small harvesters, being replaced by harvesters in the large engine size ranges.

The harvester development towards fewer vehicles and larger engines shown in Figure 8, is very clear. From 1985 to 2004 the number of vehicles decreases with around 50% whereas the average engine size increases more than 100%.

Figure 8 Total numbers and average engine size for harvesters from 1985 to 2004

The emission level shares for harvesters are shown in Figure 9. As for tractors, the Stage I and II implementation years rely on engine size, and therefore specific size segment shares will differ slightly from the picture shown in Figure 9.

Figure 9 Emission level shares for harvesters from 1985 to 2004

The engine size-emission level distribution of the harvester stock used in the inventory from 1985-2004 is given in Annex 1.

Operational data

Based on information from Høy (2005), the annual working hours are expected to decrease linearly from 200 to 50, during the harvester lifetime period of 25 years. The load factor at 0.8 is obtained from Bak et al. (2003).

3.1.3 Machine pools

Stock

Different machinery data for machine pools is obtained from the Association of Danish Machine Pools (Danske Maskinstationer), see Association of Danish Machine Pools (2005). The 1985-2004 development in machinery stock is shown in Figure 10 from 1985-2004. Due to lack of data the engine size for tractors is assumed to be the same as the average engine size for agricultural diesel tractors in a given inventory year. More detailed data for the machinery stock is shown in Annex 1 for all inventory years.

Figure 10 Machinery stock for machine pools from 1985 to 2004

Operational data

An overview of annual working hours and load factors used for machine pool machinery is given in Table 16 for all inventory years. Annual working hours and lifetime figures come from Kjelddal (2005), and load factors are from Bak et al. (2003).

Table 16 Annual working hours, load factors and lifetime for machine pool machinery

3.1.4 Other machinery

Stock

Other machinery in agriculture mainly consists of units with small levels of activity. Stock numbers are from Teknologisk (1992). For bedding machines, fodder trucks and sweepers, today’s stock is assumed to be 50% of the stock in 1990 (Høy, 2005).

All terrain vehicles (ATV) is however a fast growing segment of gasoline machinery. ATV’s entered into use in 1992 and 2000 for professional and private purposes, respectively (Importørforeningen, 2005).

Table 17 Stock numbers for other machinery types in agriculture in selected years

Operational data

Figures for load factors, lifetime, annual working hours and engine size are given in Table 18 for other machinery in agriculture (Teknologisk, 1992). No data is shown for ATV load factors and engine size. For ATV's, the fuel use and emission calculations use figures for fuel use per hour, and fuel related emission factors for conventional motor cycles.

Table 18 Operational data for other machinery types in agriculture

3.2 Forestry

Stock and operational data for forestry machinery are provided by KVL (2005) for all types of machinery.

Stock

In Table 19, stock numbers and engine sizes are given for forestry machinery in selected years.

Table 19 Stock and engine size for forestry machinery in selected years

Operational data

Annual working hours, load factors and lifetimes for forestry machinery are given in Table 20 for selected years. The annual working hours for other tractors are expected to increase linearly from 100 to 400 from 1990 to 2004. For 1985-1989 the figures for 1990 are used.

Table 20 Annual working hours, load factors and lifetimes for forestry machinery

3.3 Industry

3.3.1 Fork lifts

Stock

The fork lift stock distribution into new sales year, fuel type and size classes is made by using 1976-2004 new sale figures from IFAG (Brancheforeningen for Importører og Fabrikanter af Gaffeltrucks i Danmark), see Teknologisk (2005) and IFAG (2005), and a lifetime of 20 years (Bak et al., 2003). For years before 1976, the 1976 new sales distribution is used.

New sales figures are given in groups per lifting capacity (tons). A transformation into engine size classes (kW) is made using a kW:tons ratio from Bak et al. (2003).

Figure 11 Total numbers of diesel fork lifts in kW classes from 1985 to 2004

Figure 12 Total numbers of LPG fork lifts in kW classes from 1985 to 2004

The total numbers of fork lifts per year are shown in the Figures 11 and 12, for diesel and LPG fuelled types, respectively. In general the number of diesel fork lift increases from 1985 to 2004 for all engine size groups. In this period the overall stock increase is 36% for diesel, whereas for LPG there is a stock decrease of 14%, mainly driven by the stock decline for smaller fork lifts.

Figure 13 Emission level shares for diesel fork lifts from 1985 to 2004

The emission level shares for diesel trucks are shown in Figure 9. The Stage I and II implementation years rely on engine size, and therefore specific size segment shares will differ slightly from the picture shown in Figure 9. For LPG, no development in emission factors is taken into account in the emission calculations.

Annex I includes the number-engine size distribution of fork lifts used in the inventory from 1985-2004.

Operational data

The data for annual working hours, load factors and lifetime shown in Table 21 are based on information from Bak et al. (2003). The annual working hours for engine sizes larger than 50 kW are expected to decrease linearly from 1200 to 650 for vehicles between 0 and 10 years of age. For engines smaller than 50 kW the annual working hours are expected to be 650, irrespective of age.

Table 21 Annual working hours, load factors and lifetime for fork lifts

3.3.2 Construction machinery

Stock

New sales figures covering the period 1996-2004 period is obtained from The Association of Danish Agricultural Machinery Dealers (2005c) for the construction machinery types shown in the Figures 14 and 15. Using the machinery lifetimes (see Table 8) and assumptions for machinery new sales for years before 1996, a set of stock numbers are estimated for 2004. These latter stock figures are used together with the 1990 stock figures given by Teknologisk (1992), to interpolate the 1991-2003 machinery stock.

Due to lack of data from 1985 to1989, the 1990 stock numbers are used for these years. Moreover, for a given inventory year and machinery type it is assumed that all ages of machinery have the same percentage share of the total stock. The described approach of stock estimation has been discussed with The Association of Danish Agricultural Machinery Dealers (Pedersen, 2005; Stjernqvist, 2005).

Figure 14 1985-2004 stock development for specific types of construction machinery

Figure 15 1985-2004 stock development for specific types of construction machinery

Figure 14 shows the 1985-2004 stock development for specific types of machinery with increasing stock numbers after 1990. The inventory assumes that track type excavators/ wheel type loaders (0-5 tons), and Telescopic loaders first enter into use in 1991 and 1995, respectively (Stjernqvist, 2005). In Figure 15 the 1985-2004 stock development is shown for machinery types with declining stock numbers after 1990.

Figure 16 Emission level shares for wheel type loaders from 1985 to 2004

The emission level shares for each construction machinery type follow the pattern shown in Figure 16 for wheel type loaders. The emission level penetration rates are linear, and reflect the machinery age distribution assumptions explained in the above text.

The engine size-emission level distribution of the construction machinery stock from 1985-2004 is given in Annex 1.

Operational data

The data for annual working hours, load factors, lifetimes and engine sizes shown in Table 22 are provided by Stjernqvist (2005). Both annual working hours and engine sizes for dump trucks are expected to increase linearly from 1990 to 2004. Also for track type loaders an increase in the average engine size is expected in the same time interval, as given in Table 8.

Table 22 Operational data for construction machinery

3.3.3 Other

For industrial non road, a large group of individual machinery types exists for which stock and operational data are very scarce and for which fuel use and emission contributions are small. Due to project limitations it has therefore been decided for these types of equipment to use only the data from the Teknologisk (1992 and 1993) studies for all inventory years.

Table 23 Stock and operational data for other machinery types in industry

3.4 Household and gardening

For gasoline fuelled equipment used for household and gardening purposes the statistical information available is generally scarce. In the present project the data for stock and operational data are based on the reports Teknologisk (1993), Bak et al. (2003) and specific information from two manufacturers of working machinery with large Danish market shares (Petersen, 2005 and Hermansen, 2005). To obtain a sufficient degree of data consensus for household and gardening equipment, the listed figures for stock and operational data are validated by KVL (Kristoffersen, 2005).

3.4.1 Stock

Figure 17 shows the 1985-2004 stock development for which specific data have been gathered in the present project. For lawn movers and cultivators the machinery stock remain the same for all years, whereas the stock figures for riders, chain saws, shrub clearers, trimmers and hedge cutters increase from 1990 and onwards. According to the sources behind stock data, the yearly stock increase in most cases becomes larger after 2000, as shown in Figure 17.

Click here to see the Figure

Figure 17 Stock development 1985-2004 for the most important household and gardening machinery types

The emission level distribution of household and gardening equipment numbers used in the inventory from 1985-2004 is given in Annex 1.

3.4.2 Operational data

The data for engine size, load factors, annual working hours and lifetimes listed in Table 24 are based on information from Petersen (2005), Hermansen (2005) and Kristoffersen (2005). The operational parameters are regarded as constant throughout the 1985-2004 time period, except for lawn movers. In the latter case the average engine size is assumed to increase during the latest years, and this is reflected in the calculations from 2000 and onwards.

Table 24 Operational data for the most important types of household and gardening machinery

3.4.3 Other

For a few types of machinery with very small fuel use and emission contributions no stock and operational data has been gathered in the present project. Instead the data from the Teknologisk (1992 and 1993) studies have been used for all inventory years.

Table 25 Stock and operational data for other machines in household and gardening

3.5 Inland waterways

In the present project stock and operational data for recreational craft are based on Søsportens Brancheforening (1986), IFEU (2004), and Højenvang (2005).

3.5.1 Stock

Figure 18 shows the 1985-2004 stock and engine size developments for diesel boats and gasoline 2-stroke and 4-stroke vessels.

Click here to see the Figure

Figure 18 1985-2004 Stock and engine size development for recreational craft

For diesel boats, increases in stock and engine size are expected from 1986 to 2004, except for the stock of motor boats (< 27 ft.) and the engine sizes for sailing boats (<26 ft.) where figures remain unchanged (Højenvang, 2005). Based on the same source of information, a decrease in the total stock of sailing boats (<26 ft.) by 21%, and increases in the total stock of yawls and cabin boats, and other boats (<20 ft.) by around 25% are expected. Due to lack of specific Danish information the shifting rate from 2-stroke to 4-stroke gasoline engines is based on a German non road study (IFEU, 2004).

The type specific boat numbers used in the inventory from 1985-2004 is given in Annex 1.

3.5.2 Operational data

Table 26 Operational data for recreational craft

4 Calculation procedure

Prior to adjustments for deterioration effects and transient engine operations, the fuel use and emissions in year X, for a given machinery type, engine size and engine age, are calculated as:

   (1)

Where E_Basis = fuel use/emissions in the basis situation, N = number of engines, HRS = annual working hours, P = average rated engine size in kW, LF = load factor, EF = fuel use/emission factor in g/kWh, i = machinery type, j = engine size, k = engine age, y = engine size class and z = emission level.

The deterioration factor for a given machinery type, engine size and engine age in year X, depends on the engine size class (only for gasoline), y, and the emission level, z. The deterioration factors for diesel and gasoline 2-stroke engines are found from:

   (2)

Where DF = deterioration factor, K = engine age, LT = lifetime, i = machinery type, j = engine size, k = engine age, y = engine size class and z = emission level.

For gasoline 4-stroke engines the deterioration factors are calculated as:

   (3)

No deterioration is assumed for fuel use (all fuel types) or for LPG engine emissions, and hence DF = 1 in these situations.

The transient factor for a given machinery type, engine size and engine age in year X, only rely on emission level and the load factor, and is denominated as:

   (4)

Where i = machinery type, j = engine size, k = engine age and z = emission level.

No transient corrections are made for gasoline and LPG engines, and hence TF_z = 1 for these fuel types.

The final calculation of fuel use and emissions in year X, for a given machinery type, engine size and engine age, are the product of the expressions 1-4:

   (5)

The evaporative hydrocarbon emissions from fuelling are calculated as:

   (6)

Where E_Evap,fueling, = hydrocarbon emissions from fuelling, i = machinery type, FC = fuel consumption in kg, EF_Evap,fueling = emission factor in g NMVOC/kg fuel.

For tank evaporation the hydrocarbon emissions are found from:

   (7)

Where E_Evap,tank,i = hydrocarbon emissions from tank evaporation, N = number of engines, i = machinery type, EF_Evap,fueling = emission factor in g NMVOC/year.

5 Fuel use and emissions

• 5.1 Agriculture
• 5.1.1 Tractors
• 5.1.2 Harvesters
• 5.1.3 Machine pools
• 5.1.4 Other machinery
• 5.2 Forestry
• 5.3 Industry
• 5.3.1 Construction Machinery
• 5.3.2 Fork lifts
• 5.4 Household and gardening
• 5.5 Inland waterways
• 5.6 Uncertainties

An overview of the fuel use and emission results for non road machinery in 2004 is given in Table 27 for agriculture, forestry, industry, and household and gardening. The diesel fuelled machinery in agriculture and industry are the most important source of fuel use and emissions of  SO₂, NO_x, CO₂, N₂O, NH₃ and TSP, whereas for NMVOC, CH₄ and CO most of the emissions come from gasoline fuelled machinery. For the latter machinery types, household and gardening equipment are the most important source.

In Annex 2 the 1985-2004 fuel use and emission results are given in CollectER format (agriculture, forestry, industry, and household and gardening) together with fuel related emission factors. A more detailed description of the 2004 fuel use and emission results, and 1985-2004 emission trends are given in the following paragraphs.

Table 27 2004 Sectoral fuel use, emissions and percentage shares for land based non road machinery

Click here to see Table 27

For recreational craft Table 28 shows the total results of fuel use and emissions in 2004. The diesel engines are the most important source of fuel use and emissions of SO₂, NO_x, CO₂, N₂O, NH₃ and TSP, whereas for NMVOC, CH₄ and CO most of the emissions come from gasoline engines. In Annex 2 the 1985-2004 fuel use and emission results are given in CollectER format together with fuel related emission factors. The 2004 fuel use and emission results, and 1985-2004 emission trends are described in more details later in this chapter.

Table 28 2004 Sectoral fuel use, emissions and percentage shares for recreational craft

5.1 Agriculture

The subsectoral distribution of fuel use and emissions for agriculture in 2004 is shown in Table 29, together with the corresponding shares of the agricultural sector in total.

Table 29 2004 Subsectoral fuel use, emissions and percentage shares for agriculture

Click here to see Table 29

Diesel tractors account for most of the fuel use (69%) and have the largest shares of agricultural non road emissions for most of the emitted substances. In this respect the diesel tractor emission shares of TSP, NO_x, SO₂, CO₂, N₂O, NMVOC and NH₃ are 75, 71, 70, 69, 69, 62 and 62%, respectively. For CH₄ and CO the gasoline fuelled equipment in the subsector “other machinery” has the largest emission shares of 56 and 38%.

5.1.1 Tractors

In general, the total fuel use is determined as the product of the total kWh’s produced and the aggregated specific fuel consumption in g/kWh. For diesel tractors, Figure 19 shows the 1985-2004 trends for these two parameters. In terms of total kWh’s, the effect of increasing engine sizes is opposite the effect of, with some fluctations though, generally decreasing tractor numbers (see Figure 3). The end result is, however, a decline in the total kWh’s produced from 1985 to 2004. The decrease in the average specific fuel consumption in g/kWh throughout the period is due to an increase in fuel efficiency as engines become larger and newer.

Click here to see the Figure

Figure 19 Total kWh’s produced and aggregated specific fuel consumption (g/kWh) for diesel tractors from 1985-2004

The resulting total fuel use and emissions development from 1985 to 2004 is shown in Figure 20. The fuel use curve incorporates the effect from kWh fluctuations and fuel efficiency levels. From 1985 to 2004 the total fuel use and directly derived CO₂ emissions drop by 23%.

For N₂O and NH₃, the 1985-2004 emission declines at 17% are slightly smaller than the fuel use drop, because fuel efficiency increases and the N₂O and NH₃ emission factors in g/kWh are constant throughout the period. The significant reduction in SO₂ emissions from 1985 to 2004 (92%) is due to the step wise lowering of the sulphur content in diesel fuel used for non road purposes.

For NO_x the emission decrease is only 4% from 1985-2004, the main reason being the large emission contribution from 1991-Stage I engines (characterised by high NO_x emission factors) which more or less outbalances the emission effect of decreasing fuel use. The emission declines of 61, 50, 50 and 42% for TSP, NMVOC, CH₄ and CO, respectively, are larger than the decrease in fuel use. This is explained by the gradually improved engine emission technology and the strenghtened EU emission standards from 2001.

The stock of gasoline tractors is almost phased out by the end of the 1985-2004 time period, and the fuel use and emission effect of this is clearly visible from the curves on Figure 20. Still, taking into account the figures for total diesel and gasoline fuel use, the emissions of CO og CH₄ from gasoline tractors, and to a smaller extend the NMVOC emissions, are still significant. This is due to the very high CO, CH₄ and NMVOC emission factors for old gasoline engines. For all other components, the emission contribution from gasoline tractors is only marginal.

Click here to see the Figure

Figure 20 1985-2004 Time series of fuel use and emissions for tractors in agriculture

The EU strengthening of emission standards has a strong effect on the emission level specific shares of total emissions for diesel tractors (Figure 21). In this way the total fuel use share for stage I and II engines (20%) is larger than the emission shares of NO_x, NMVOC, CO and TSP, which are 12, 6, 8 and 5%, respectively. For 1991-stage I engines specifically, Figure 21 also show the difference in NO_x emissions and fuel use shares, being the main explanation for the small total NO_x decrease for diesel tractors.

Click here to see the Figure

Figure 21 Fuel use and emissions for diesel tractors in 2004 split into emission levels

The emission level specific fuel use and emission developments from 1985-2004 are shown in Figure 22, and from this it becomes clear that the emission shares for newer emission levels are generally smaller than their corresponding shares of fuel use.

Click here to see the Figure

Figure 22 Fuel use and emissions for diesel tractors from 1985-2004 split into emission levels

In Annex 2 the 1985-2004 fuel use, emissions and fuel related emission factors are listed for diesel and gasoline tractors, respectively.

5.1.2 Harvesters

Figure 23 shows the 1985-2004 trends for total kWh’s and aggregated specific fuel consumption in g/kWh for harvesters. The total kWh’s produced are more or less maintained at the same level over this time period, as a balance between the decrease in total numbers and the increase in average engine size shown in Figure 8. The overall decrease in the average specific fuel consumption throughout the period is due to an increase in fuel efficiency for newer and larger engines.

Figure 23 Total kWh’s produced and aggregated specific fuel consumption  (g/kWh) for diesel tractors from 1985-2004

The resulting total and emission level specific fuel use and emission developments from 1985 to 2004 are shown in Figure 24. The fuel use curve incorporates the effect from kWh fluctuations and fuel efficiency levels. From 1985 to 2004 the total fuel use and directly derived CO₂ emissions drop by 5%.

The emission explanations given for diesel tractors also apply for harvesters. Though especially for NO_x, the emission development for harvesters as a total is less positive than for tractors. This is mainly due to the large emission contribution from 1990-Stage I engines as a product of high emission factors and large fuel quantities being burned. For NO_x, N₂O and NH₃, the emissions increase with 25, 5 and 5% from 1985-2004, whereas the emission declines for SO₂, TSP, NMVOC, CH₄ and CO are 91, 62, 56, 56 and 42%, respectively.

Click here to see the Figure

Figure 24 1985-2004 Time series of fuel use and emissions for agricultural harvesters

The EU strengthening of emission standards improves the emission levels from harvesters. Figure 25 shows that total fuel use share for Stage II engines (21%) in 2004 is larger than the emission shares of NO_X, NMVOC, CO and TSP, which are 11, 7, 10 and 3%, respectively. The reason for an almost zero fuel use and NO_X emissions for Stage I engines, is a very small number of harvesters complying with this emission level.

Click here to see the Figure

Figure 25 Fuel use and emissions for harvesters in 2004 divided into layers

In Annex 2 the 1985-2004 fuel use, emissions and fuel related emission factors are listed for harvesters.

5.1.3 Machine pools

For machine pools, the total fuel use and emissions development from 1985 to 2004 are shown in Figure 26. It must be noted that the large uncertainties on parameters such as engine age and size distributions and annual working hours, influence the certainty of the calculated results.

Tractors are the most important for fuel use and emissions. The fuel use and emission shares for self-propelled vehicles and harvesters are considerably smaller. The shares for self-propelled vehicles, though, grow from zero in 1992 to around double the shares for harvesters in 2004.

The total fuel use and directly derived CO₂ emissions increase with 35%, and for NO_x, N₂O and NH₃ the emission increases are 67, 48 and 48%, respectively, from 1985-2004. For SO₂, TSP, NMVOC, CH₄ and CO the respective emission decreases are 87, 59, 38, 38 and 18%, in the same time period.

Click here to see the Figure

Figure 26 1985-2004 Time series of fuel use and emissions for machine pools

The lifetimes for machine pool machines are small, and the stock modernity means that the relative emissions are always low. This is reflected in the overall fuel use and emission split for 2004 on Figure 27, where only three emission levels are present.

Click here to see the Figure

Figure 27 Fuel use and emissions for machine pools in 2004 divided into layers

In Annex 2 the 1985-2004 fuel use, emissions and fuel related emission factors are listed for machine pool tractors, harvesters and self-propelled vehicles.

5.1.4 Other machinery

The fuel use and emission shares for other machinery in agriculture are marginal compared with the non road totals. The results for 2004 are shown in Table 30 divided into types of machinery.

Table 30 Fuel use and emissions in 2004 for other machinery types

It should be noted that the use of ATV’s has increased during the later years; no driving was made with professional and private vehicles before 1992 and 2000, respectively. Going from zero in 1992/2000 the 2004 shares for ATV’s are 69% for fuel use, CO₂ and SO₂, 78% for NO_X and NMVOC, and 55, 73, 92 and 98% for CO, N₂O, CH₄, TSP and NH₃, respectively.

In Annex 2 the 1985-2004 fuel use, emissions and fuel related emission factors are listed per fuel type for other machinery, and for ATV’s as a single category.

5.2 Forestry

The subsectoral distribution of fuel use and emissions for forestry in 2004 is shown in Table 31, together with the corresponding shares of the forestry sector total.

Table 31 2004 Subsectoral fuel use, emissions and percentage shares for forestry

Click here to see Table 31

Chain saws (2-stroke engines) account for 33% of all fuel use in forestry in 2004, and have very high emission shares of NMVOC (98%), CH₄ (96%) and CO (96%). For chain saws, the fuel use and emissions have been reduced by 75% from 1990 to 2004, because of similar reductions of in the number of forestry workers in the same time period.

For diesel, the largest emission shares are calculated for NO_x (97%), SO₂ (95%), N₂O (94%), NH₃ (82%), CO₂ (68%) and TSP (56%). The largest source of fuel use and emissions is chippers, followed by forwarders and harvesters.

In Annex 2 the 1985-2004 fuel use, emissions and fuel related emission factors are listed for diesel and gasoline fuelled machinery, respectively.

5.3 Industry

The subsectoral distribution of fuel use and emissions for industry in 2004 is shown in Table 32, together with the corresponding shares of the industry non road total.

Table 32 2004 Subsectoral fuel use, emissions and percentage shares for industry

Click here to see Table 32

Construction machinery accounts for most of the fuel use (71%) and is the most important source of emissions from industry. The emission shares for SO₂, TSP, NO_X, NMVOC, CO and CH₄ are 79, 71, 68, 51, 50 and 30%. For CO₂, N₂O and NH₃ the emission share is 72%.

5.3.1 Construction Machinery

Table 33 shows the fuel use and emissions in 2004 for the types of construction machinery where specific sales figures exist. This subgroup of machinery is a major diesel fuel consumer and accounts for 86% of the total diesel fuel used by construction machinery in 2004. The fuel use and emission results for the remaining construction machinery types are shown later in this chapter.

Table 33 2004 Fuel use, emissions and percentage shares for selected types of construc-tion machinery

Click here to see Table 33

The large track type excavators and wheel loaders (>5,1 tons) are equally important in terms of fuel use and emissions, and have the largest shares of fuel use and NO_x, SO₂, CO₂, N₂O, NH₃ and CO emissions in 2004. For NMVOC, CH₄ and TSP, small track type excavators (0-5 tons) are the largest emission source. The fuel use and emission shares for wheel type excavators, dump trucks and track type dozers and loaders are only 4% or less.

The total and emission level specific fuel use and emission developments from 1985 to 2004 are shown in Figure 28, for the machinery types listed in Table 19. The general machinery lifetime is 10 years, except for mini loaders where a lifetime of 14 years is expected. On Figure 28, small fuel use and emission contributions from mini loaders appear for four more years at any given emission level, after the contributions from other machinery types have been phased out.

The total fuel use and directly derived CO₂ emissions increase by 8% from 1985 to 2004, and this is explained by the growth in the activity level for the machinery types as a whole. However, it should be noted that the total development incorporates both fuel use increases and decreases, cf. the stock development curves shown in the Figures 14 and 15. Prior to 1990, the 1990 stock and operational data are used, and the slight fuel use decrease from 1985 to 1990 is explained by the improved fuel efficiency for 1981-1990 machinery being phased in.

For the remaining components the emission explanations given for diesel tractors also appy for construction machinery. From 1985-2004, the emissions of N₂O and NH₃ increase by 16%, whereas the emissions decrease for SO₂, TSP, NMVOC, CH₄, CO and NO_x are 89, 45, 37, 37, 26 and 4% in the same time period.

Click here to see the Figure

Figure 28 1985-2004 Time series of fuel use and emissions for selected types of construction machinery

The emission level specific shares of fuel use and emissions in 2004 are shown in Figure 29. The effect of the strengthened stage I and II emission standards is visible since fuel use shares per emission level are always higher than their corresponding emission shares. As for machine pool machinery, a quick penetration of new emission levels into the machinery stock occurs due to the relatively small lifetimes for the machinery types in question.

Click here to see the Figure

Figure 29 Level specific shares of fuel use and emissions for selected construction machinery in 2004

In Annex 2 the 1985-2004 fuel use, emissions and fuel related emission factors are listed for construction machinery.

5.3.2 Fork lifts

The 2004 fuel use and emission results for diesel and LPG fork lifts were shown in Table 13 in the beginning of this chapter. The 1985-2004 time series of results are shown in Figure 30.

For diesel fork lifts the total stock increases from 1985-2004 and causes the fuel use and CO₂ emissions to increase by 38%. In the same time period the emission increases of NO_x, N₂O and NH₃ are 58, 50 and 50%, whereas the emissions of SO₂, TSP, NMVOC, CH₄ and CO emission decrease by 86, 37, 22, 22 and 7%, respectively. The explanations for the emission changes relative to the fuel use development are generally the same as for tractors (see Chapter 5.1.1).

For LPG fork lifts the fuel use and emissions decrease by 14% from 1985 to 2004, due to a decrease in stock numbers and the application of constant emission factors. Though, for LPG fuels the sulphur percentage is zero, and hence no SO₂ emissions occur related to the usage of LPG.

Compared with diesel, the LPG emissions for TSP, CO and NMVOC are generally low, but on the contrary high for NO_x, CH₄, N₂O and NH₃. The two emission tendencies rely on the values of the emission factors.

Click here to see the Figure

Figure 30 1985-2004 time series of fuel use and emissions for fork lifts

The emission level specific shares of fuel use and emissions in 2004 are shown in Figure 31. The effect of the strenghtened stage I and II emission standards is visible since fuel use shares per emission level are always higher than their corresponding emission shares.

Click here to see the Figure

Figure 31 Level specific shares of fuel use and emissions for selected construction machinery in 2004

In Annex 2 the 1985-2004 fuel use, emissions and fuel related emission factors are listed for diesel and LPG fuelled fork lifts, respectively.

Other machinery

Fuel use and emissions estimates are listed in Table 34 for other mobile machinery in industry. Figures for individual percentage shares are listed in Table 35.

Table 34 2004 fuel use and emissions for other industrial non road machinery

Click here to see Table 34

Table 35 2004 fuel use and emission percentage shares for other industrial non road machinery

Click here to see Table 35

5.4 Household and gardening

The subsectoral fuel use and emissions distributions in 2004 for household and gardening equipment are shown in Table 36, together with the corresponding shares of total results.

Table 36 2004 Fuel use, emissions and percentage shares for household and gardening equipment

Click here to see Table 36

The 4-stroke engines have a fuel use share of 82% and emission shares between 80 and 90% for all components, except NMVOC and TSP. The 2-stroke engine emission shares for these two components are high, in the order of 58 and 74%, respectively, due to high emission factors. The fuel use and emission contributions are marginal from machinery types (other machinery) for which no specific data are gathered in the present project.

The largest individual emission sources for all other components than NMVOC and TSP are professional and private riders, whereas for NMVOC and TSP the highest emitters are chain saws, shrub clearers and lawn movers (NMVOC).

From 1985 to 2004 there has been a 113% increase in total fuel use, SO₂ and CO₂ emissions. For NO_x, NH₃, N₂O, TSP, NMVOC, CO and CH₄, the emissions have increased by 179, 132, 123, 117, 87, 78 and 51%, respectively.

Figure 32 shows the 1985-2004 fuel use and emission trends per machinery type.

Even though some fuel efficiency improvements have been obtained, per machinery type the fuel use more or less follow the activity level. Following this, it is clear from Figure 32 that the overall rise in total fuel use is to a large extent due to the increased use of riders which has been even more pronounced after 2000. The visible NMVOC, CH₄ and CO emission reductions for cultivators and lawn movers (1985-2000) and for chain saw TSP (1985-1993) are due to emission factor improvements.

Click here to see the Figure

Figure 32 1985-2004 time series of fuel use and emissions for household and gardening equipment

Figure 33 shows the fuel use and emission developments per emission level from 1985-2004, split into 2-stroke and 4-stroke results. For 4-stroke NMVOC and CO, and for 2-stroke TSP the emission factors become gradually lower as engines become newer, whereas for 4-stroke NO_x the opposite situation occurs. These emission tendencies become clear when the emission and fuel use graphs are compared, for 2-stroke and 4-stroke engines individually.

Click here to see the Figure

Figure 33 1985-2004 time series of fuel use and emissions per emission level for 2-stroke and 4-stroke household and gardening equipment

In Annex 2 the 1985-2004 fuel use, emissions and fuel related emission factors are listed for 2-stroke and 4-stroke gasoline engines, respectively.

5.5 Inland waterways

An overview of the fuel use and emission results for recreational craft in 2004 is given in Table 37. The diesel fuelled engines account for 71% of the total fuel use, and have SO₂, N₂O, NO_x, NH₃, CO₂, and TSP emission shares of 99, 87, 85, 83, 72 and 68%, respectively. The most important single source is motor boats (27-34 ft) followed by motor boats (>34 ft), motor sailors, sailing boats (<26 ft) and motor boats (<27 ft).

For CO, CH₄ and NMVOC most of the emissions come from gasoline fuelled machinery. The CO, CH₄ and NMVOC emission shares are 93, 89 and 8, respectively. Here the most important single sources are speed boats (4-stroke, in board engines), speed boats (2-stroke) and yawls/cabin boats (2-stroke).

Table 37 2004 Fuel use, emissions and percentage shares for recreational craft

Click here to see Table 37

From 1985 to 2004 there has been a 188% increase in total fuel use. The N₂O, NH₃, NO_x, SO₂, CO₂, TSP, CO, CH₄ and NMVOC emissions have increased by 300, 258, 239, 201, 189, 106, 81, 75 and 13%, respectively.

Figure 34 shows the 1985-2004 fuel use and emission trends split into totals for diesel, 2-stroke gasoline and 4-stroke gasoline.

The EU directive 2003/44 strengthened emission standards apply for new engines in 2006 (diesel and gasoline 4-stroke) and 2007 (gasoline 2-stroke), and therefore the fuel use and emissions per boat type directly follow the activity level in the 1985-2004 time period. So, the main reason for the SO₂, NO_x, CO₂, N₂O, NH₃ and TSP emission growth is the overall rise in total diesel fuel use.

From 1998 and onwards the 2-stroke emission decreases and the 4-stroke emission increases even stronger due to the gradual shift towards the more environmentally friendly 4-stroke gasoline engine technology. In terms of NMVOC and TSP, the total gasoline engine result is a 1% increase for NMVOC and a 4% decrease for TSP from 1985 to 2004 set in relation to a fuel use increase of 50% in the same period.

Click here to see the Figure

Figure 34 1985-2004 time series of fuel use and emissions for recreational craft

In Annex 2 the 1985-2004 fuel use, emissions and fuel related emission factors are listed for diesel engines and 2-stroke and 4-stroke gasoline engines, respectively.

5.6 Uncertainties

Uncertainty estimates for fuel use and emissions are made according to the guidelines formulated in the Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC, 2000).

For 2004, the detailed uncertainty calculation sheets are shown in Annex 6, and input for these are uncertainty factors for activity data and fuel use/emission factor uncertainties.

The uncertainty factors for activity data shown in Table 24 are calculated as:

   (8)

Where U_A = activity data uncertainty factor, U_S = stock uncertainty factor, U_H = working hours uncertainty factor, U_L = load uncertainty factor.

The determination of the stock, hours and load uncertainty factors shown in Table 38 are based on own judgements and are given as 95% confidence ratios.

Table 38 Uncertainty factors for machinery stock, working hours and engine loads

The fuel use and emission factor uncertainties given as 95% confidence ratios are shown in Table 39. For fuel use the uncertainty factors are based on own judgements. The emission factor uncertainties for CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O come from IPCC (2000) and for SO₂, NO_x, NMVOC, CO, NH₃ and TSP the uncertainty factors are used as proposed by the Good Practice Guidance for CLRTAP Emission Inventories (Pulles et al. 2001).

Table 39 Fuel use and emission factor uncertainties

In Table 40 the uncertainty results are shown, expressed as the 95% confidence ratios.

Table 40 uncertainty results (95% confidence ratios) for fuel use and emissions in 2004

6 Projections 2005-2030

• 6.1 Fuel use and emissions
• 6.1.1 Agriculture
• 6.1.2 Forestry
• 6.1.3 Industry
• 6.1.4 Household and gardening
• 6.1.5 Inland waterways

To provide stock data for the projection period 2005-2030 for tractors, harvesters and fork lifts the new sales figures per engine size for the year 2004 has been used for 2005 onwards as an assumption. The general lifetimes listed in Chapter 3 and historical stock data has subsequently been used to determine the total stock numbers per engine size, and numbers per new sales year and engine size for each year in the projection period.

For the remaining non road machinery types the 2004 machinery stock has been used also for future years. By assuming the same percentage share of the stock total for all new sales year present in the stock, the number-new sales year (and hence emission level) distribution can be established in any given forecast year.

The main driver for changes in the future as compard with the present emission level will therefore be the changes in emission factors. Changes in emission factors result from strengthened legislation with regard to emission standards.

The stock data behind the 2005-2030 fuel use and emission projections are shown in Annex 3. The 2005-2030 fuel use and emission results are given in CollectER format (agriculture, forestry, industry, household and gardening and inland waterways) together with fuel related emission factors.

6.1 Fuel use and emissions

6.1.1 Agriculture

In Table 41 the fuel use and emission results for agriculture are shown for 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030, and as percentages of the 2004 results. In Annex 4 the 2005-2030 fuel use, emissions and fuel related emission factors are listed for tractors, harvesters, machine pool machinery types, other agriculture machinery (per fuel type) and ATV’s.

Table 41 Fuel use and emissions for agriculture in selected forecast years

The figures in Table 41 and the curves on Figure 35 show a fuel use and emission decrease from 2004-2030. For TSP, NO_x, NMVOC and CO this is due to the gradually strengthened emission legislation standards (see also Figure 36, tractors as an example). In this way the 2030 emissions become only 7, 10, 29 and 54 of the emission level in 2004. For fuel use, the total decrease is due to the decrease in tractor numbers and fuel efficiency improvements which all in all have a greater fuel use impact than the general engine size increase. The remarkable decrease in SO₂ emissions is due to the lowering of the sulphur percentage in the fuel from 500 to 10 ppm in 2005.

Click here to see the Figure

Figure 35 2005-2030 fuel use and emissions for agriculture

Click here to see the Figure

Figure 36 2005-2030 fuel use and emissions for diesel tractors per emission level

6.1.2 Forestry

Table 42 shows the 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030 fuel use and emission results for forestry, together with the calculated percentages of the 2004 results. In Annex 4 the 2005-2030 fuel use, emissions and fuel related emission factors are listed for diesel and gasoline fuelled machinery, respectively.

Table 42 Fuel use and emissions for forestry in selected forecast years

The impact on total NMVOC, CO and TSP emissions due to the emission reductions for tractors, harvesters and other diesel fuelled machinery are to some extend compensated for by the emission development for chain saws. The latter types of machinery have a relatively large gasoline fuel use. For forestry as a total, the largest emission decreases are calculated for SO₂, NO_x and TSP. Their respective emission levels in 2030 are 3, 9 and 49% of the 2004 levels.

Click here to see the Figure

Figure 37 2005-2030 fuel use and emissions for forestry

6.1.3 Industry

Table 43 shows the 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030 fuel use and emission results and calculated percentages of the 2004 results for non road machinery in industry. In Annex 4 the 2005-2030 fuel use, emissions and fuel related emission factors are listed for fork lifts (per fuel type) and for construction machinery.

Table 43 Fuel use and emissions for industry in selected forecast years

The impact on total NMVOC, CO and TSP emissions coming from the generally large emission decreases for diesel fuelled machinery (construction machinery, fork lifts, other types) are to some extend compensated for by the emission development for LPG fuelled fork lifts. For industry as a total, the largest 2004-2030 emission decreases are 98, 75 and 62% for SO₂, TSP and NO_x.

Click here to see the Figure

Figure 38 2005-2030 fuel use and emissions for industry

6.1.4 Household and gardening

Table 44 shows the 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030 fuel use and emission results and calculated percentages of the 2004 results for household and gardening workg machines. In Annex 4 the 2005-2030 fuel use, emissions and fuel related emission factors are listed for 2-stroke and 4-stroke gasoline engines, respectively.

Table 44 Fuel use and emissions for household and gardening in selected forecast years

For household and gardening equipment, the largest emission declines are calculated for SO₂, NMVOC and CH₄; the 2004-2030 emission decreases are 81, 34 and 11%, respectively. For NO_x, CO and TSP, the emissions increase by 19, 12 and 3% in the same time period, mainly driven by the emission developments for lawn movers and cultivators (due to their specific emission deterioration patterns). Figure 39 shows the 2005-2030 fuel use and emission curves for the different types of household and gardening equipment.

Click here to see the Figure

Figure 39 2005-2030 fuel use and emissions for household and gardening

In Figure 40 the emission level specific fuel use and emission curves for 2-stroke and 4-stroke engines are shown for the 2005-2030 forecast period. A complete shift to engines complying with the stage II emission legislation levels is finalised in 2017 and 2018, for 2-stroke and 4-stroke engines respectively.

Click here to see the Figure

Figure 40 2005-2030 time series of fuel use and emissions per emission level for 2-stroke and 4-stroke household and gardening equipment

6.1.5 Inland waterways

Table 45 shows the 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030 fuel use and emission results and calculated percentages of the 2004 results for recreational craft. In Annex 4 the 2005-2030 fuel use, emissions and fuel related emission factors are listed for diesel engines, and 2-stroke and 4-stroke gasoline engines, respectively.

Table 45 Fuel use and emissions for recreational craft in selected forecast years

The contemporary phase-out of 2-stroke engines and phase-in of 4-stroke engines, finalised in 2015, is clearly visible from the fuel use and emission curves shown in Figure 41. However, in spite of the increased use of 4-stroke engines for small boats, the emissions of CO decrease significantly for this motor type. This is due to markedly lower emission factors for engines complying with the EU 2003/44 emission directive compared with the conventional ones. For the same reason the NO_x and TSP emissions decline for diesel engines.

Click here to see the Figure

Figure 41 2005-2030 time series of fuel use and emissions for recreational craft

7 Conclusion

The diesel fuelled machinery in agriculture and industry are the most important sources of fuel use and emissions of SO₂, NO_x, CO₂, N₂O, NH₃ and TSP in 2004. Agricultural tractors is the most dominant single source, with fuel use and emission totals of around one third of the grand totals for land based non road machinery.

For diesel machinery as a total, the fuel use and emissions of SO₂, CO₂, NMVOC, CH4, CO and TSP decrease by 6, 91, 6, 43, 43, 33 and 54%, respectively, from 1985-2004. In the same time period the emissions of NO_x, N₂O and NH₃ increase by 4, 2 and 2%, respectively.

The trend in total diesel fuel use (and CO₂) is dominated by a decrease in fuel use for agricultural machinery, and an increase in fuel use especially for non road construction machinery and fork lifts. The significant SO₂ emission decline is caused by a large reduction of the sulphur content in non road diesel. For NO_x, the slight emission increase is due to the relatively large 1991-stage I emission factors, whereas the large emission reductions for NMVOC, CH₄, CO and TSP are due to the gradually improved engine emission techonology for these emission components.

The development towards cleaner diesel engines continues in the future, and for NO_x, NMVOC, CH₄, CO and TSP the total emissions decrease by 81, 78, 78, 63 and 85% from 2004-2030. This is due to the gradually strengthened future EU emission standards. A significant reduction of the sulphur content for diesel in 2005 cuts down the diesel related SO₂ emissions by as much as 98%. In the 2004-2030 time period there is a moderate decline in fuel use and CO₂, N₂O and NH₃ emissions, mainly due to a decrease in the use of agricultural tractors.

Most of the NMVOC, CH₄ and CO emissions come from gasoline fuelled working machinery. Set in relation to the total land based non road emissions, the NMVOC emission share is 26% for chain saws used in forestry and for household, and for CH₄ and CO the emission shares for riders (private and professional) are 34 and 53%, respectively.

From 1985-2004 the emissions of NMVOC, CH₄ and CO from gasoline machinery increase by 18, 12 and 8%, respectively. From a broad perspective the engines have become more emission efficient, since the total gasoline fuel use has increased by 39% in the same time period. In the forecast period from 2004-2030 the gasoline related fuel use and emissions of NMVOC and CH₄ are expected to decrease by 5, 34 and 11%, respectively, whereas an emission increase of 9% is calculated for CO. Here, small or zero emission factor reductions for stage I and II engines in combination with higher deterioration factors cause the CO emissions for gasoline machinery to increase even after the time of stage I and II engines entering the market.

For recreational craft, most of the fuel use, SO₂, NO_x, CO₂, N₂O, NH₃ and TSP emissions are attributed to the diesel engine category, while most of the NMVOC, CH₄ and CO emissions come from gasoline fuelled engines, as is the case for land based non road machinery. However, compared with the latter machinery group, the fuel use and emissions from sailing vessels are small.

From 1985 to 2004 there has been a large increase in sailing activities, most significantly for diesel fuelled boats, and a gradual shift from 2-stroke to 4-stroke technology for gasoline engines. These tendencies are reflected in the increases of fuel use (188%), N₂O (300%), NH₃ (258%), NO_x (239%), SO₂ (201%), CO₂ (189%), TSP (106%), CO (81%), CH₄ (75%) and NMVOC (13%). The overall diesel fuel increase is the main reason for the SO₂, NO_x, CO₂, N₂O, NH₃ and TSP emission growths, whereas the increase in gasoline fuel use explains the CO and CH₄ emission inclines. The small NMVOC emission increase is explained by the gasoline engine shift to the more environmentally friendly 4-stroke technology, since total gasoline fuel use has gone up with 50% from 1985 to 2004.

From 2004 to 2030 the emissions of NMVOC and CO are expected to significantly decrease due to the 2-stroke/4-stroke technology shift (NMVOC) and the relatively low future EU 2003/44 directive emission limit. The latter explanation also applies for the NO_x and TSP emission decreases, mainly ruled by the emission trend for diesel fuelled boats.

For non road machinery in 2004 the uncertainties (given in brackets)for fuel use and CO₂ emissions are determined with the highest accuracy (18%), followed by SO₂ and TSP (35%), NO_x (37%), NMVOC (40%), CH₄ (43%), CO (48%), NH₃ (619%) and N₂O (621%). The uncertainties are calculated as the 95% confidence ratios.

Since tractors are the largest individual source of fuel use and emissions it is important to increase the accuracy of the operational background data used in the inventory calculations for this non road machinery type. Data for the load factor assessment made in this report originates from a study carried out in 1987. Even though the agricultural machinery stock in principle must match the farm work requirements on a daily basis, the load factor assessment rely on old data and it would be useful to make the load factor calculation once again with an updated data set.

For machine pool machinery it is also important to further evaluate the operational parameters engine size and annual working hours, and specifically for harvesters the kW:ft ratio needs to be reassessed.

An important outcome of the present study has been the establishment of contacts with Danish experts dealing with statistical data and experts from research institutes, relevant professional bodies, machinery manufacturers, etc. It is the future goal to obtain information of new sales and total stock on an annual basis, in order to ensure continuously updated inventories. To the extent that statistical numbers are produced, new sales figures for tractors, harvesters, construction machinery and fork lifts should be gathered together with total stock data for household/gardening machinery, and recreational craft.

Specifically for agriculture, two major inventory improvements are envisaged in the nearest future. By all means, total stock data for tractors and harvesters will be published by Statistics Denmark for 2005. These figures go directly into the inventory for 2005, and will in addition improve the 2001-2004 total stock numbers by means of interpolation. On the energy side and starting from 2005, more detailed fuel sales information from the Danish Energy Authority classifies the amount of diesel fuel used for non road mobile purposes. The latter figure is an important tool for fuel use quality control and enables a regular fuel balance to be made for the agricultural part.

On a European level, the purpose of the EMEP/CORINAIR guidebook published by the European Environment Agency is to provide inventory support for country estimates. However, the guidebook data are more than ten years old and consequently the demand for new data is becoming more and more urgent. The fuel use and emission data used in the German inventory (IFEU, 2004) and in the present report are able to support this task, and an effort should therefore be made to include these data in the EMEP/CORINAIR guidebook.

8 References

Bak, F., Jensen, M.G., Hansen, K.F., 2003: Forurening fra traktorer og ikke-vejgående maskiner i Danmark, Miljøprojekt nr. 779, Miljøstyrelsen (in Danish).

Dansk Teknologisk Institut, 1992: Emission fra Landbrugsmaskiner og Entreprenørmateriel, commissioned by the Danish EPA and made by Miljøsamarbejdet in Århus (in Danish).

Dansk Teknologisk Institut, 1993: Emission fra Motordrevne Arbejdsredskaber og –maskiner, commissioned by the Danish EPA and made by Miljøsamarbejdet in Århus (in Danish).

EMEP/CORINAIR, 2003: EMEP/CORINAIR Emission Inventory Guidebook 3rd Edition September 2003 Update, Technical Report no 20, European Environmental Agency, Copenhagen. http://reports.eea.eu.int/EMEPCORINAIR4/en.

Hermansen 2005: Personal communication, Kurt B. Hermansen, AL-KO Ginge A/S.

Højenvang 2005: Personal communication, Jesper Højenvang, Dansk Sejlunion.

Høy 2005: Personal communication, Jens Johnsen Høy, Danish Agricultural Advisory Service

IFAG 2005: Fork lift new sales figures provided by John Aagaard, Brancheforeningen for Importører og Fabrikanter af Gaffeltruck i Danmark.

IFEU 2004: Entwicklung eines Modells zur Berechnung der Luftschadstoffemissionen und des Kraftstoffverbrauchs von Verbrennungsmotoren in mobilen Geräten und Maschinen - Endbericht, UFOPLAN Nr. 299 45 113, pp. 122, Heidelberg.

Importørforeningen (2005): Personal communication, Kaj Andersen, Vilh. Nellemann Handelsselskab A/S.

IPCC, 2000: Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, IPCC, May 2000. Available at http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gp/english/ (06-07-2004)

Iversen K K; Møller A S (1987). Reduceret jordbehandling: Driftsøkonomi og energieffektivitet. Rapport nr. 29, Statens Jordbrugsøkonomiske Institut, København (in Danish).

Kjelddal 2005: Personal communication, Mogens Kjelddal, Association of Danish Machine Pools.

Kristoffersen 2005: Personal communication, Palle Kristoffersen, Center for skov, landskab og planlægning, KVL.

KVL 2005: Unpublished datamaterial provided by Frans Theilby, Center for skov, landskab og planlægning, KVL.

Ntziachristos, L. & Samaras, Z. 2000: COPERT III Computer Programme to Calculate Emissions from Road Transport - Methodology and Emission Factors (Version 2.1). Technical report No 49. European Environment Agency, November 2000, Copenhagen. Available at: http://reports.eea.eu.int/Technical_report_No_49/en (June 13, 2003).

Pedersen 2005: Personal communication, Thomas Pedersen, The Association of Danish Agricultural Machinery Dealers.

Petersen 2005: Personal communication, Vagn Petersen, Electrolux Danmark.

Pulles, T., Aardenne J.v., Tooly, L. & Rypdal, K. 2001: Good Practice Guidance for CLRTAP Emission Inventories, Draft chapter for the UNECE CORINAIR Guidebook, 7 November 2001, 42pp.

Sørensen, C.G., 2005: Unpublished datamaterial provided by Claus Grøn Sørensen, Research Center Bygholm.

Statistics Denmark (1965, 1973-1981): Agricultural statistics, Statistics Denmark, Copenhagen.

Statistics Denmark (2005): Agricultural statistics, (available on the internet on http://www.statistikbanken.dk/statbank5a/default.asp?w=1024)

Stjernqvist 2005: Personal communication, Per Stjernqvist, The Association of Danish Agricultural Machinery Dealers

Søsportens Brancheforening 1986: Bådbranchen, Nummer 1, 3. Årgang, published by Søsportens Brancheforening (in Danish).

The Association of Danish Agricultural Machinery Dealers (2005a): Tractor new sale figures 1982-2003, Unpublished datamaterial provided by Thomas Pedersen.

The Association of Danish Agricultural Machinery Dealers (2005b): Harvester new sale figures 1982-2003, Unpublished datamaterial provided by Thomas Pedersen.

The Association of Danish Machine Pools, 2005: Årsberetninger 1985-2004.

TNO (2001): TNO CEPMEIP database (www.air.sk/tno/cepmeip).

USEPA 2004: Conversion Factors for Hydrocarbon Emission Components. EPA420-P-04-001, US Environmental Protection Agency, 5 pp.

Annex 1: Stock data 1985-2004

Stock data for diesel tractors 1985-2004

Click here to see Annex 1

Annex 2: Fuel use, emissions and emission factors 1985-2004

Fuel use and emissions (tons) for diesel tractors 1985-2004

Click here to see Annex 2

Annex 3: Stock data 2005-2030

Stock data for diesel tractors 2005-2030

Click here to see Annex 3

Annex 4: Fuel use, emissions and emission factors 2005-2030

Fuel use and emissions (tons) for diesel tractors 2005-2030

Click here to see Annex 4

Annex 5 Evaporation factors for fuelling and tank evaporation

Annex 6 Uncertainty calculation sheets for fuel use and emissions in 2004