Topic

No.

Top 10

UK-foresight sector & sub sector

Betydning

Kate-
gori

Development of improved genetic engineering technologies to produce new industrial products in livestock (e.g. pharmaceuticals in milk, vaccines in blood).

6

2

Agricult., nat. res. & environment
- agriculture

U

Increased quality and value of food, feedstuffs and non-food products results from the elucidation of biosynthetic and catalytic pathways of plants and animals.

9

3

Agricult., nat. res. & environment
- agriculture

U

Development of non-allergenic foods.

7

4

Agricult., nat. res. & environment
- agriculture

U

Better understanding of the immunology and epidemiology of disease processes in animals (including zoonoses and exotic diseases) provides more effective strategies for the maintenance of high health status.

11

6

Agricult., nat. res. & environment
- agriculture

U

Widespread public acceptance that the new technology emerging from modern biology lead to significant wealth creation in UK.

41

7

Agricult., nat. res. & environment
- agriculture

U

50% of first world homes are connected by optical fibre interconnections for two-way communication.

44

4

Chemicals
- information and design systems

U

Widespread use of intelligent self-medication devices which determine dose and timing.

79

5

Chemicals
- healthcare and biotechnology

U

Practical use of biosensors for continuous monitoring in medical/health applications which are durable for 3 years.

59

9

Chemicals
- sensors and measurement

U

Complete merger and integration of mobile, personal and fixed communication networks to provide a universal telephony service to all users.

42

1

Communications
- infrastructure

U

Widespread use in the developing countries of radio call boxes for wireless public access.

44

2

Communications
- infrastructure

U

More than 50% of the UK population have personal telephone numbers that are portable and independent of network or geographical location.

43

3

Communications
- infrastructure

U

Practical use of mobile personal communication terminals capable of providing multimedia services over radio networks.

7

4

Communications
- access to network

U

Widespread use of on-line information and software services for leisure activities, such as video-on-demand, news-on-demands and hobbies.

66

7

Communications
- services for business/consumers

U

Widespread demand from UK users for high bandwidth real-time communications requires massive expansion in capacity of the public network

23

8

Communications
- infrastructure

U

More than 50% of domestic telephone users in UK are also connected to mobile radio networks.

36

9

Communications
- infrastructure

U

Widespread use of interactive multimedia services and telesoftware to aid learning and make better use of specialist tutors in ‘virtual universities’.

69

10

Communications
- services for business/
consumers

U

Improved communications (infrastructure and equipment) facilitate location-independent working for 40% plus of the UK’s working population.

53

8

Construction
- quality of life

U

The number of criminal acts are reduced by 40% through designing buildings and public spaces for enhanced security, and without compromising civil liberties.

67

10

Construction
- safety and security

U

Practical use of a pocket-sized satellite/cellular terminal allowing users to access radio and TV, receive and transmit data and voice, and provide position and route information by display on a screen map anywhere in the world.

28

1

Defence and aerospace
- space

U

Widespread use of large (>300 seats) subsonic aircraft which are quiet enough to take off and land at night from airports in populated areas.

38

3

Defence and aerospace
- advanced passenger aircraft

U

Practical use of large transport aircraft of 600-800 passengers with around half the manufacturing cost relative to current practice.

37

4

Defence and aerospace
- advanced passenger aircraft

U

Practical use of rotorcraft with safety increased tenfold and operating costs halved compared to today’s helicopters, having improved passenger ride quality and reduced obtrusiveness to the general public.

43

5

Defence and aerospace
- rotary wing aircraft

U

Widespread use of fault tolerant software for safety critical systems with a tenfold improvement in development productivity, thereby equalling the certification costs of non-safety critical systems.

85

8

Defence and aerospace
- quality/policy

U

Practical use of all weather category 3 aircraft landing, take-off and taxiing system using non-visual technology (e.g. fused radar/IR imaging conditioned by differential GPS).

12

9

Defence and aerospace
- air traffic management

U

Practical use of vary large (>1000) subsonic passenger aircraft compatible with existing airport taxiways and stands.

39

10

Defence and aerospace
- advanced passenger aircraft

U

The real cost of telecommunication falls by 75% of its current level.

12

1

Financial services
- computing and communications

U

An extensive library of audio, video and text information is accessible to homes and workplaces on demand

47

2

Financial services
- retail products and services

U

There is a telecommunication infrastructure in the UK which allows the sale of goods, services and information through a multi-media network to every home and place of business.

11

3

Financial services
- computing and communications

U

Portable computers and communications equipment with compact lightweight and long lasting power suppliers are in widespread use.

17

4

Financial services
- computing and communications

U

Widespread teaching and testing of the use of business software packages, such as word processing and spreadsheets, as a mandatory part of the school curriculum.

2

5

Financial services
- structure and human resources

U

Interactive terminals, allowing voice, video and text communications, are installed in the homes of most consumers of financial services.

45

6

Financial services
- retail products and services

U

The UK is better than its major competitors at adapting laws and regulations to take account of new technological developments.

26

7

Financial services
- conduct and compliance

U

A combination of smart cards and telecommunications will enable ‘electronic crash’ to be obtained widely, including in most homes or places at work.

53

8

Financial services
- services for business and consumers

U

The cost of a desk top computer with the capability for business application is app. the same as the average weekly wage in the UK.

13

9

Financial services
- computing and communications

U

Improved telecommunications and changing cultural attitudes bring a massive increase in the volume of cross-border business.

55

10

Financial services
- wholesale products and services

U

Development of selected therapeutic foods which delay the process of ageing.

69

1

Food and Drink
- health

U

Development of functional food which reduces the incidence of dietary heart disease.

67

2

Food and Drink
- health

U

Widespread acquisition of intelligent home cooking equipment.

9

3

Food and Drink
- manufacturing

U

Elucidation of individual human genetic profiles enables targeted dietary advice.

60

4

Food and Drink
- health

U

Widespread export of food from UK on the basis of the perceived high quality of UK manufacture.

8

6

Food and Drink
- manufacturing

U

Export of ‘added value’ foods to new markets reduce the UK deficit in foods by 50%.

38

7

Food and Drink
- consumer

U

Widespread availability in supermarkets of low calorie, appetite satisfying foods for overweight consumers.

70

8

Food and Drink
- health

U

Widespread scope for consumers to purchase foods with therapeutic benefits against a wide range of health risks.

39

9

Food and Drink
- consumer

U

Widespread replacement of current commercial preservation practices by novel preservation process because of the latter’s positive impact on food quality.

2

10

Food and Drink
- manufacturing

U

Greater understanding of the animal and human nutrition and nutrient adsorption by the gut leads to major new markets for foods containing defined, proven, health-enhancing supplements (nutriceuticals).

67

1

Health and life sciences
- health promotion

U

Incidence of each of three major vital diseases is reduced by 90% by new vaccine or drug developments.

33

2

Health and life sciences
- infection and microbiology

U

Widespread use of comparative studies of plant, animal, microbial and human genes accelerates development of new products and development strategies for disease control.

9

3

Health and life sciences
- molecular and cellular sciences

U

Elucidation of the causes of inflammatory and auto-immune diseases.

30

5

Health and life sciences
- immunology

U

Practical use of drugs modulating cellular systems (e.g. controlling cell cycle, differentiation of death) to treat cancer.

25

6

Health and life sciences
- cancer

U

New methods of treating arterial occlusion and myocardial infarction dramatically reduce morbidity from cardiovascular disease in 40-50 age group.

28

8

Health and life sciences
- cardiovascular

U

Widespread use of polypeptide drugs which are delivered and targeted to specific tissues.

22

9

Health and life sciences
- advances in therapeutics

U

Practical use of reliable systems for predicting complete 3-D protein structure from sequence alone, either by reference to known structures or by other means.

7

10

Health and life sciences
- molecular and cellular sciences

U

IT systems for home or general use at work routinely require negligible training for 90% of users.

22

2

IT and Electronics
- human/machine interface

U

Availability of voice transcription systems for any speaker, without training, with a vocabulary of 50.000 words, at a price equivalent to less than £75 today.

24

3

IT and Electronics
- human/machine interface

U

75% of software projects are delivered on time and meet or exceed the customer’s expectations for functionality, performance and cost.

10

4

IT and Electronics
- software technology

U

All new vehicles have transponders which can provide services such as road charging, stolen vehicle recovery and collision awareness.

69

5

IT and Electronics
- government/
social/legal issues

U

Smart video, surveillance systems, in home, capable of recognising intruders, personal accidents, etc. are available at a price equivalent to less than £750 today.

62

7

IT and Electronics
- application for industry and commerce

U

UK is one of the top three world wide sources of applications content in multimedia products and services.

52

8

IT and Electronics
- application for industry and commerce

U

Widespread use of intelligent interactive technology that teaches art, music, craft, sports or other leisure skills tailored to individual needs and based on assessment of individual progress.

37

1

Learning and Leisure
- learning and creativity

U

Widespread use of an interactive information facility in cars which gives current information on road problems, best routes, sites of interest, and bars on entry to site.

67

2

Learning and Leisure
- tourism and travel

U

Widespread availability of training in a combination of high-level creativity and technical skills, e.g. in computer graphics, computer assisted animation or design.

39

3

Learning and Leisure
- learning and creativity

U

The widespread establishment within organisations of advanced technology centres to ‘incubate’ creative and technical skills through providing access to finance, equipment or initial work experience.

40

4

Learning and Leisure
- learning and creativity

U

All homes have access to low-cost interactive educational materials for a range of credentials.

46

5

Learning and Leisure
- learning and creativity

U

Bed and breakfast or other small source of accommodation are linked to homes or public access points for direct domestic or international booking.

68

7

Learning and Leisure
- tourism and travel

U

Practical use of machines for the translation of printed text into different languages.

34

8

Learning and Leisure
- learning and creativity

U

Practical use of voice recognition technology for the translation of speech into different languages.

35

9

Learning and Leisure
- learning and creativity

U

Widespread use by business of management and organisation techniques which are proven to promote creativity or productivity from groups of appropriate individuals.

68

1

Manufacturing/
Production/Business
- personnel and training

U

Widespread use of flexible teams to organise multi-skilled employees.

69

2

Manufacturing/
Production/Business
- personnel and training

U

Widespread use of simple techniques for surface treatment of low cost base materials with high effect coating of films.

5

3

Manufacturing/
Production/Business
- materials and material processing

U

Widespread use of simple techniques using miniaturisation down to molecular level in production and processes.

3

4

Manufacturing/
Production/Business
- materials and material processing

U

Practical use of fully reproducible sensors for measuring costumer perception quality parameters (e.g. colour, smell, sound and touch).

10

5

Manufacturing/
Production/Business
- measurement and sensors

U

Widespread adoption of computer-aided learning and training systems at the workplace to continually raise employee skills.

65

7

Manufacturing/
Production/Business
- personnel and training

U

Development of materials for temporary bone fixation/repair that degrade in mechanical properties at the same rate as natural bone replacement.

45

3

Materials
- health care and security

U

Development of implant materials that last the lifetime of a patient.

43

4

Materials
- health care and security

U

Widespread use of materials with improved blood capacity in vascular grafts, catheters and other medical devices. Desirable properties include compliant, non-kinking with non-thrombogenic surfaces.

42

5

Materials
- health care and security

U

Development of materials to assist with real-time diagnosis of human diseases.

46

7

Materials
- health care and security

U

Town centres are developed as leisure shopping complexes.

71

9

Retail and Distribution
- retailer

U

Companies from diverse industry sectors form partnerships to create and exploit substantial new opportunities in retail.

28

10

Retail and Distribution
- supply chain

U

Widespread use of robust monitoring/sensing/image analysis equipment to improve the management, structure and nutrient status of soils, to reduce leaching and erosion, and to identify remedial measures.

28

9

Agricult., nat. res. & environment
- agriculture

+

MON

Widespread use of recycled building materials, composites incorporating synthetic materials such as plastics and alternative forest products, resulting from modified construction concepts and design standards.

65

8

Agricult., nat. res. & environment
- natural resources - construction minerals and materials

+

OMLÆG

Widespread use of fuel cells as means of vehicle propulsion.

63

2

Chemicals
- energy and feedstocks

+

OMLÆG

Travel to work distance are halved through the combined impact of local development strategies and advances in information and communication technologies.

37

2

Construction
- land use

+

OMLÆG

Development of improved catalyst technology enables 30% of existing high temperature / high pressure chemical processes to be replaced by low temperature / low pressure alternatives.

71

9

Energy
- end use

+

OMLÆG

Advances in science and technology of materials for fuels cells create a major market for them in local area electrical energy devices and automotive power by reducing significantly the cost/kWh.

61

2

Materials
- energy storage and transmission

+

OMLÆG

Widespread use of new road construction materials, equipment and techniques, which permit a 50% reduction in the time taken to repair and maintain.

45

1

Transport
- road transport systems

+

OMLÆG

Practical use of land transport vehicles, which use light-weight materials and reduced volume power units and ancillaries without compromising safety to reduce vehicle weight by 50%.

49

2

Transport
- road transport systems

+

OMLÆG

Widespread use of teleworking and teleshopping reduce anticipated transport demand by 20%.

71

8

Transport
- social innovations

+

OMLÆG

Practical use of railway vehicles which use lightweight materials and reduced volume power units and ancillaries without compromising safety, to reduce vehicle weight by 50%.

37

9

Transport
- railway and track transport systems

+

OMLÆG

Vehicle design and recycling technology have reached the stage where more than half (by value) of the vehicle’s material is recycled or re-used.

42

10

Transport
- road transport systems

+

OMLÆG

Development of chemical components for solar cells with energy conversion of greater than 30%.

64

1

Chemicals
- energy and feedstocks

+

RENERE

Development of uniquely targeted, pest activated chemical pest control methods.

74

3

Chemicals
- healthcare and biotechnology

+

RENERE

Development of novel and practical catalytic systems for SO_x/NO_x removal.

21

6

Chemicals
- catalysis

+

RENERE

Development of chemical systems which allow more than 75% of oil to be routinely recovered from an oil field.

65

8

Chemicals
- energy and feedstocks

+

RENERE

Practical use of high productivity, non-biological, heterogeneous catalytic systems with the product and feedstock specificity of the best enzymes.

20

10

Chemicals
- catalysis

+

RENERE

Totally integrated transport system increases transport efficiency by 100%.

70

1

Construction
- sustainable development

+

RENERE

Practical use of climate conditioning systems with ‘intelligent’ links to the building fabric and structure offer ultra-low energy consumption.

73

3

Construction
- sustainable development

+

RENERE

Halving of subsonic aircraft direct operating costs per passenger mile by increasing aircraft productivity, and reducing aircraft first cost and the cost of fuel, maintenance and crew.

5

2

Defence and aerospace
- air environment and efficiency

+

RENERE

Widespread use of low emissions combustion system for civil aero engines of 50:1 pressure ratio which reduces NO_x emissions at cruise by 60% compared to today’s best production engine.

60

7

Defence and aerospace
- aircraft propulsion

+

RENERE

Integration of current understanding and techniques into mainstream building design results in new buildings routinely requiring 50% less energy than current designs.

54

1

Energy
- end use

+

RENERE

Widespread achievement of at least 20% improvement in energy efficiency and reduction in emissions of industrial process plant through use of improved design methods (e.g. process integration, process intensification).

72

2

Energy
- end use

+

RENERE

Development of an integrated approach to retrofitting existing buildings, using existing techniques and understanding, which improves the energy performance of refurbished buildings by 50%.

57

3

Energy
- end use

+

RENERE

Doubling of the share of world wide electricity generation produced by co-generation / combined-heat-and-power.

50

4

Energy
- conversion

+

RENERE

Widespread use of high density (4 times that of lead-acid) battery competitive with lead-acid technology.

37

5

Energy
- transmission, transportation and distribution

+

RENERE

Widespread use of highly efficient (>20% improvement on current practice), low emission engines for transport.

73

6

Energy
- end use

+

RENERE

Development of cost-effective refinery processes that meet future requirements for clean transportation fuels.

47

7

Energy
- conversion

+

RENERE

First commercial use of large, efficient (>60% net) gas-fired combined cycle power generation.

42

8

Energy
- conversion

+

RENERE

Widespread purchasing of domestic appliances (refrigerators, washing machines, hi-fi, cooking etc.) which are 50% more energy efficient than today’s best practise.

66

10

Energy
- end use

+

RENERE

Accurate long term weather forecasting facilities more efficient planning and production of agriculture and food.

59

5

Food and Drink
- environment

+

RENERE

Widespread use of genetically engineered plants and micro-organisms to control and/or reverse environmental contamination.

75

7

Health and life sciences
- biological production

+

RENERE

Availability of dry cells with five times the power/storage of contemporary NiCd cells at no added cost and weight.

4

1

IT and Electronics
- hardware technology

+

RENERE

Widespread use of modelling techniques which predict and minimise waste products from an entire facility.

58

6

Manufacturing/
Production/Business
- operations

+

RENERE

Widespread use of simple negligible-friction coating systems to reduce wear.

6

8

Manufacturing/
Production/Business
- materials and material processing

+

RENERE

Widespread use of highly distributed manufacturing facilities allowing reduction of movement of people or goods to reduce the impact of transportation.

24

9

Manufacturing/
Production/Business
- production process support systems

+

RENERE

Practical use of processes for the production of currently recognised materials by novel low cost, undemanding methods (e.g. at ambient temperature, pressure).

4

10

Manufacturing/
Production/Business
- materials and material processing

+

RENERE

Development of optical materials enabling usable all-optical switches, optical signal processing and optical computing.

57

6

Materials
- electro-optic materials

+

RENERE

Practical demonstration of control of leachates from landfill sites by geotextile membranes with micro-biological capabilities.

20

8

Materials
- recycle / re-use

+

RENERE

Widespread increase in specialised small retailers meeting specific needs in the local community.

65

1

Retail and Distribution
- retailer

+

RENERE

Widespread use of internal combustion engined vehicles twice as fuel efficient as today’s catalyst-equipped vehicles and with half the present exhaust emissions of the regulated pollutants.

62

3

Transport
- road transport systems

+

RENERE

Travel by private vehicles in inner urban areas is halved compared with today through public transport improvements and the introduction of electronic road pricing and access control.

67

5

Transport
- road transport systems

+

RENERE

Widespread use of vehicles for urban personal transport powered by electric or other negligible emission power sources, supported by re-charging facilities at termini and/or en route.

63

6

Transport
- road transport systems

+

RENERE

Widespread use of separation and membrane technologies and biotechnologies for waste management.

98

10

Agricult., nat. res. & environment
- environment - national scale

+

RENSE

Urban regeneration brings large areas of derelict and contaminated land back into productive use.

36

4

Construction
- land use

+

RENSE

Development of ‘zero’ energy buildings that are independent of utilities and infrastructure.

68

5

Construction
- sustainable development

+

SAMF

Buildings are designed as dynamic and adaptive structures able to adjust automatically to the many varied pressures of people and nature.

11

7

Construction
- buildings in use

+

SAMF

Development of practicable zero or near zero energy buildings.

103

1

Agricult., nat. res. & environment
- environment - national scale

+

SYSTEM

New conversion/transmission techniques provide viable economic and environmentally acceptable alternative energy sources.

75

5

Agricult., nat. res. & environment
- natural resources - renewables

+

SYSTEM

20% of UK communities and urban areas have a balanced system of energy consumption and energy creation.

69

6

Construction
- sustainable development

+

SYSTEM

Compact lightweight, mouldable, durable, rechargeable batteries capable of powering portable office equipment for 24 hours are in widespread use.

62

1

Materials
- energy storage and transmission

+

SYSTEM

80% of UK population completing secondary education is competent in technical subjects.

69

7

Chemicals
- education and training

?

Widespread use of interactive multimedia services and telesoftware for training/education at home.

70

5

Communications
- services for business/consumers

?

Widespread use in UK of multimedia teleworking enables people to work from home for much of the working week.

54

6

Communications
- services for business/consumers

?

Widespread use of multi-variable and intelligent controls on aircraft, helicopters and engines to improve their operational characteristics, including noise and vibration reduction.

66

6

Defence and aerospace
- control systems

?

First practical use of therapies based on purpose-designed non-peptide molecules which mimic the activity of peptides.

21

4

Health and life sciences
- advances in therapeutics

?

25% of the UK population use a portable integrated personal computer/communicator.

36

6

IT and Electronics
- information distribution and exchange

?

50% of UK households use a multimedia system which includes PC, telephones, TV, VCR, games and networking capabilities.

56

9

IT and Electronics
- home and lifestyle

?

10% of the UK working population telework 2 days per week.

50

10

IT and Electronics
- application for industry and commerce

?

25% of homes are connected to a high-capacity, interactive ‘superhighway’ for information, communication and entertainment.

1

6

Learning and Leisure
- media development / superhighway

?

Expert ‘navigation’ systems enable simple access to data ‘warehouses’ for all domestic users of all levels of computer literacy.

14

10

Learning and Leisure
- media development / superhighway

?

Commercial application of materials designed on biomimetic principles.

18

9

Materials
- smart materials

?

Widespread application of food packaging materials able to indicate that the food is safe for human consumption.

14

10

Materials
- smart materials

?

Widespread use of packaging that ensures temperature control of the packed item, enabling convenience shopping and home delivery.

21

2

Retail and Distribution
- product related

?

Multi-way interactive visual and audio communication used in 50% of UK homes.

1

3

Retail and Distribution
- UK social trends

?

To prevent the growth of an information underclass, the UK government makes equipment generally available to provide access to electronic shopping and information services.

53

4

Retail and Distribution
- consumer

?

Widespread use of product packaging that indicates age and condition of perishable products.

20

5

Retail and Distribution
- product related

?

Widespread use of Smart Tags improves product identification, quality control and tracking processes throughout the supply chain.

23

6

Retail and Distribution
- supply chain

?

Widespread use of high resolution Virtual Reality to market high value products (holidays, housing, fashion etc.).

39

7

Retail and Distribution
- marketing

?

Widespread use of networked systems to transfer and pay information.

29

8

Retail and Distribution
- supply chain

?

Widespread use of new, smaller container modules allowing automated interchange and transfer of modules between modes, and from long-distance to local-distribution vehicles.

17

7

Transport
- multi-modal transport systems

?

Improvements in the price-performance of buildings and structures facilitate an acceleration in the long-run rate of renewal of UK’s building stock to double the present rate.

1

9

Construction
- buildings in use

#

International development of new air traffic management methods, technologies and standards to greatly increase safely the throughput capacity of European airspace.

2

4

Transport
- air traffic systems

#