Working Report No. 34 2006 – Green Technology Foresight about environmentally friendly products and materials - The challenges from nanotechnology, biotechnology and ICT

Green Technology Foresight about environmentally friendly products and materials

3 Environmental aspects of the development and use of ICT

Thomas Thoning Pedersen, Michael Søgaard Jørgensen, Morten Falch, Ulrik Jørgensen & Ole Willum.

3.1 Introduction

This chapter presents the research on Information and Communications Technologies (ICT). The aims of the research have been:

The term ICT is used to describe the tools and the processes to access, retrieve, store, organise, manipulate, produce, present and exchange data and information by electronic and other automated means (UNESCO 2005). ICT is an umbrella term that includes any communication device or application, encompassing: radio, television, cellular phones, computer and network hardware and software, satellite systems and so on, as well as the various services and applications associated with them, such as videoconferencing and distance learning. ICT are often spoken of in a particular context, such as ICT in education, health care, or libraries.

The separation of data and information could be a bit controversial in the area of ICT, but the reason for doing so is that the understanding of data and information in the theory of knowledge provides a useful distinction between data and information. Data are the base for information and the distinction lie in the idea that information contains a perception or even an action of the collected data (Nonaka & Takeuchi 1995 p.15). Information is the media that makes the base for action of a person and is therefore filtered by the person’s perceptions of the data. Data are basically the objective properties of the environment (Boisot 1998 p.12). This definition may even open for a too narrow understanding of both data and information, as data only can be given a specific meaning in a context where both the production and the retrieval of data is underlying the same frame of interpretation, and where the use of these data as information will include the social and institutional context in which the interpretation takes place, even influenced by the specific situations in which the information is handled. Both the general context and the specific situations in which information is used involve interpretation and association of the information into a broader frame of action.

3.1.1 Methodology

The base for this chapter is three related activities: Desk research, interviews and workshops.

The desk research has been focusing on former research and knowledge about the relationship between ICT and the environment in a wider perspective. The relation between ICT and the society has also been a significant part of the desk research.

The interviews have been carried out with actors from both the Danish research environment and businesses using or developing ICT as tool in their work. The actors have to a high degree been selected by having some relation to use of chemicals, materials or energy resources and not necessarily because of their interest and work with environmental issues. 17 interviews and personal conversations have been carried out (see reference list). Interviews as a social process addressing environmental aspects have the risk of focusing more on environmental aspects than in the normal practice. The interviewees might over or under-estimate the future role of the technology in order to influence the external interest in its societal impact.

A way of avoiding this has been to combine, where possible, data from several interviews or combine information from interviews with written information and discussions at the project workshops in order to qualify the assessment of the environmental aspects. The interviews of different actors, written material and workshop discussions have been combined in order to identify mechanisms in research and innovation processes and draw up possible (maybe conflicting, maybe converging) future development paths. Especially a project workshop January 2005 about so-called intelligent products and processes has been important.

3.2 Overall consideration of Information and Communications Technology

Information and Communications Technology (ICT) comprises of a relatively well developed and in certain areas even mature set of technologies that are integrated in both professional and private settings (Henten 2001 p.11). It would be a too comprehensive work to try describing all possible technologies and their applications. Consequently there is a need for making some generalisations about ICT and also to focus only on some of the applications of ICT. A description of the environmental potentials and risks also opens for a rather broad field of problems and therefore opens for similar problems for an attempt to cover all aspects. It is almost impossible in one report to assess it all. Therefore this chapter starts out by setting ICT in relation to a social and regulatory framework in order to understand the dynamics in the development and use of ICT with emphasis of the situation in Denmark. In practical terms this limits the focus on some of the production facilities for IT-equipment merely not present in Denmark while emphasising the application side of ICT’s.

Following this introduction some general trends in the future ICT development is described through a number of future technological trajectories at the functionality level identified in the EU ICT foresight project FISTERA (Saracco, Bianchi, Mura, & Spinelli, 2004). Some application fields for ICT, which have been highlighted as environmentally important in the literature, are presented and a description of possible disruptions in the future innovation of ICT is presented. The future development of ICT is seen as shaped by the interaction between some general ICT dynamics, the dynamics of the application fields and the social and regulatory framework.

The selection of application areas for ICT and the aggregation and generalisation of these will be described more in detail in a later section. The criteria for selection have been the potential positive and negative impact from the application of ICT’s in the different areas. Even large, but rather neutral or low impact areas of application have been given less attention.

3.2.1 Political and marketing frame-work conditions

To understand the possible future development and use of ICT in Denmark, it is important to look at the Danish conditions and at more general and global trends. The so-called Digital Denmark from 1999 is an example on how a Danish government wishes to be in front with regard to education and the public access to ICT. The visions show that ICT as area is integrated into the broader context of the political arena in Denmark (Henten 2001 p. 4). An international trend is to shift from a governmental intervention and protectionist approach to a more open political approach with EU and USA as the main driving forces (Henten 2001 p2). In figure 1 the non-political and political framework conditions are sketched, but there is of course interaction between the two types of conditions. The figure is a way to show the complexity of the ICT development in Denmark. It is important to have these framework conditions in mind when discussing the shaping of the future development and use of ICT in Denmark. It is as well important to stress that the general development of ICT is a global process, and the big achievements in the general development of ICT are not taken place in Denmark. The technology development in Denmark is based on specialisation in adjustment of technologies and development of applications. The production of ICT in Denmark compared to the world is not that big, strong or advanced (Henten 2001 p. 11).

3.2.1.1 The characteristics of ICT in Denmark

98 percent of companies in Denmark (with more than 10 employees) had access to the Internet in 2002, and in 2004 83 percent of the population had access to the Internet. The export of ICT products has increased 44 percent from 1997 to 2003 and the export of ICT goods and services constituted around 7 billion Euros. In 2002 the ICT business stood for 28 percent of the total private investments in R&D, and 12.6 percent of new enterprises in 2001 was in the ICT business (Ministeriet for Videnskab, Teknologi og Udvikling 2004 p. 5). The ICT effect in the Danish society is great and approximately one third of the Danish productivity growth is assumed to come from ICT investments and the use and integration of ICT (from 1988 to 2000) and around one twelfth of the employed are in the ICT business (Ministeriet for Videnskab, Teknologi og Udvikling 2004 p. 3, 5 and 6).

The Ministry for Science, Technology and Innovation characterises the ICT sector in Denmark as having the following business and research related strength:

ICT has big impact on other technology areas as ICT often is a precondition for the development of other technologies. Figures from OECD show that companies using advanced ICT have increased productivity. Therefore it is very important to look at these areas when discussing the possibilities of ICT (e.g. biotechnology, where ICT is an important part of mapping the human genome), products (e.g. pumps) and services (e.g. self-medication) (Ministeriet for Videnskab, Teknologi og Udvikling 2004 p.6).

The Danish tradition for user participation in the development processes is important to keep integrated as a standard step of the development of ICT goods. User participation can secure that the development in ICT gives better possibilities for the single individual and a faster accept of the technology (Ministeriet for Videnskab, Teknologi og Udvikling 2004 p.10-11).

3.2.1.2 ICT research and development in Denmark

The ICT research and development has to a high degree been left to the private business in Denmark, which in 2001 constituted 90 percent of the total research and development within the ICT-area. Approximately the public investments in ICT research and development were 70 million Euros compared to the private investments on 600 million Euros. Public ICT investments constituted in 2002 a relatively low part compared to other investments and constituted around 4.8 percent of the total public investments. The latest big public research effort was the constitution of a research fund on 115 million in 2002 (the so-called UMTS-funds). With the establishment of the “højteknologifonden” (The high-technology foundation) a platform for an increased public effort on the ICT-sector is provided (Ministeriet for Videnskab, Teknologi og Udvikling 2004 p.7). The following paragraphs give a brief description of ICT research and innovation in Denmark.

There are research environments at Aalborg University (mobile and wireless communication technology and management of big amount of data). Aalborg University is project leader of an internationally research project on 4G-communication with 40 partners from Europa, Japan, Korea, and India.

Another research centre is COM at DTU (optical communication) with cooperation with companies as Intel and Tellabs, which have placed R&D centres in Denmark. COM is involved in several European research projects.

Cutting-edge competencies in internet protocols (IPV 6) and in wireless devices are present in Danish companies (Ministeriet for Videnskab, Teknologi og Udvikling 2004 p.11-12).

A great part of the Danish companies in the ICT sector develops traditional software platforms. (Ministeriet for Videnskab, Teknologi og Udvikling 2004 p.12).

Katrinebjerg in Aarhus has a research environment that is based on a tight cooperation between research and business. The technologies are object orientation software programming and user oriented design. Aarhus University is project leader of a great European research project focusing on development of infrastructure for the future pervasive computing.

Danish companies as Danfoss, Grundfos and B&O are working with the pervasive computing technology.

Robot technology has a competency network – RoboCluster with around 70 companies and the Mærsk McKinney Møller Institute (Ministeriet for Videnskab, Teknologi og Udvikling 2004 p.12-13).

The strength in Denmark is based on good software development competencies and a relation between the technology and the contents and the international orientation and holistic approach in the Danish R&D culture. Especially in the communications sector the system understanding and integration in Denmark is unique and is the main reason why international companies have their R&D efforts in Denmark (Ministeriet for Videnskab, Teknologi og Udvikling 2004 p.13).

In Denmark both research and industry are seen within this area. E.g. cryptomathic and encrypting researchers at Århus University (Ministeriet for Videnskab, Teknologi og Udvikling 2004 p.13-14).

The vision of the Danish Ministry of Science Technology and Innovation includes a development from selling products to selling services. The traditional supply of products will change so that companies offer services instead through intelligent products. The intelligent products will gather data and transform them into useful information about e.g. conditions of the product and user behaviour. This could be supplemented by a feature, which warns a costumer when a product needs to have changed a part in order to prevent breakdowns (Ministeriet for Videnskab, Teknologi og Udvikling 2004 p.9).

3.2.1.3 The non-political initiatives

The market potential in Denmark is big as ICT is a fundamental part of the production and the society in general. The possibilities lie in the relationship between the development of new ICT products or applications and the ICT-intensive industries. The market is very developed with regard to penetration/use of ICT products and also with respect to quality requirements. The market is very diverse and depends on the characteristics of customers and end users and on supply of the components and products at the home market and the international market (Henten 2001 p. 15).

For Danish firms co-operation is important and e.g. electronic networks are a major part of the shaping and operation of these networks. Standards are another very important tool to make the co-operation possible and the co-operation is not only national. Industry locomotives do not exist in Denmark, but firms like Ericsson and Nokia influence the market and often the Danish firms have international owners. Denmark is known as a country with strong trade organisations, but in the ICT-area the trade organisations do not directly play such a big role. ITEK as an employers’ and trade association (part of the organisation Danish Industry) is the only one dealing directly with ICT as a sector. The employees are members of lot of different trade unions depending on their job description. In the software part of the ICT-sector there is a trend as in the rest of the knowledge intensive sectors that employees do not want to be part of trade unions. The Danish equipment manufacturers act in an international market while the service suppliers act in a national market (Henten 2001 p. 21). As in other areas the labour costs in ICT area is high in Denmark due to the high tax burden, though prices on e.g. telecommunication is competitive compared to other countries (Henten 2001 p. 23-24). To some extent Denmark is in need of labour with very high specialisation, though there is no agreement about the demand (Henten 2001 p. 27). The role of entrepreneurs in the ICT area is low, but it seems that this tendency is changing (Henten 2001 p. 29-30). The availability of venture capital has historical been scarce but in the recent years there has not been a definite lack. Another way to raise capital for small companies in Denmark is to be acquired by a financially strong group of companies (Henten 2001 p. 32)

3.2.1.4 The political initiatives

The direct economical support to the ICT companies is marginal, but the Danish government is trying through education initiatives to cover the lack of qualified labour. Other ways the public sector Denmark is supporting the ICT sector is to demand high advanced solutions and finally by securing that other business areas demands ICT products and services (Henten 2001 p. 42). Most recently for example through the demand for electronic invoices from companies, which sell products and services to governmental authorities and institutions. The regulation has changed in Denmark as well in other European countries, but the deregulation of telecommunication sector was faster in Denmark compared to other European countries (Henten 2001 p. 50). EU is an important actor through the shaping of the overall framework regulation for the area and related areas as well. This includes directives for the handling of electronic and electrical waste (WEEE), energy consumption of products (EoP) and the use of hazardous substances (RoHS). The WTO is also a very important actor (Henten 2001 p. 52), most recently for example the discussions about intellectual property rights and about trade with information products and services (the TRIPS negotiations).

Figure 3.1 Sketching of the framework conditions on ICT in Denmark based on Henten (2001).

At the project workshop January 2004 about intelligent products and processes the issue about transforming findings from the research communities to use of companies in Denmark was addressed. The lack of Danish forums for demonstration of new technologies’ possibilities was raised as an issue. The reasons are that Danish companies are too small to invest in technologies that are not proven to be profitable. As comparison participants referred to a greater will in the USA for demonstration of possibilities of new technologies. It was stressed that the challenge for Danish research and development is to transform knowledge into a level where companies can assess the usability. It was stressed that innovation in Denmark only can survive, if projects can be demonstrated as viable and are easy for Danish companies to make use of (Intelligent workshop group 1) and (Intelligent workshop group 2).

3.2.2 ICT as technology area

The FISTERA report describes European Technology Trajectories related to Intelligent Society Technologies (IST) which illustrates the technological areas of development of ICT in a social context. In the following these different trajectories are presented as an illustration of the complexity of the ICT development and the base of understanding ICT as a technology area (Saracco et al. 2004). These trajectories will develop in markets with different push and pull mechanisms that are very problematic to describe, but the dynamics of both the producers and users are very essential. Furthermore developments in surrounding technology areas influence the development of ICT trajectories. The understanding of the future ICT has often been characterised as being very optimistic and hyped. ICT can be understood by splitting it up in different layers, the technical layer, the functionally layer, the service layer and the ambient layer within the technological trajectories. Another important dynamic of the future ICT development is the disruptions that these trajectories might create at existing markets (Saracco et al. 2004 p.13).

The technical layer is the technical specifications that are relevant for different types of ICT. Some new technologies will be based on the further development of existing technologies in the ICT trajectories. The relationships between different technologies within the ICT are very important and they are often depending on each other as well as on surrounding technologies (Saracco et al. 2004 p.13).

The functionality layer represents the functional properties of ICT’s by focussing on their technical aspects. The functionality layer is crucial because it presents a base for the decision of where and when to invest in the basic technologies and building blocks for the ICT field. The functionality could be provided by various technologies from the technology layer, which means that the specific technologies could be competing with each other and some technologies will in the future potentially be outcompeted by others with the same functionality (Saracco et al. 2004 p.13-14).

The services layer is the actors and the market segment (size and expenditure capacity) as it is and the expected development. Factors as cost of components, of packaging, of delivery and operation are essential. One of the central issues is multi-users or temporary property of products such as car sharing as an example on a relative new service. The marketing drive often pushes for bundling of functionalities to get a better market position, which not always is what customers need, though they might have a perception of needing it. Some niches are going the other way and are offering specific products with specific functionalities of services. The relationship between functionality and service is of course of high importance and is describing the connection of what technology can provide and what the market wants (Saracco et al. 2004 p.14).

The ambient layer is the physical and the virtual places where technologies are in action, through the services they enable, and where the various actors (end users and providers) are interacting with each other.

3.2.2.1 Technical trajectories at functionality level

The trajectories that are identified for ICT have been developed by focussing on the functionality of the involved technologies and their technical properties. Consequently it does not present or focus on specific technologies within ICT nor does it identify the social and environmental context in which applications operate. In opposite the trajectories could contain various technologies competing or complementary, but still defining some basic material and functional properties these have in common. The trajectories are:

Bandwidth is the transmission capacity at the access level and it’s expected that in the next 5 years there will be a deployment of xDSL (modulation schemes to pack data onto copper wires) and optical fibres. For the next decades the race of speed will continue, but will gradually turn towards bandwidth guarantee and –flexibility. It is supposed that the 100 mbps bandwidth will satisfy the most common demands, and research for higher speed will be done only related to specific applications like holographic projection, grid services etc, which will in some way affect general infrastructure and applications (Saracco et al. 2004 p.17).

In the last 30 years the communications technology has developed dramatically mostly focusing on simplification in the communication across the world. The next step will be the emergence of wireless networks and possibly the solution of the interface problem through inter-terminal communication. This may lead to a significant increase in the wireless bandwidth with a radical change in the way of communicating. This is not something that will happen by itself but needs research and investment and a vision to guide the direction (Saracco et al. 2004 p. 17).

Data capturing has evolved constantly the past decades but through the development of smaller, cheaper and simple sensors, satellite surveys, web cams, personal recording devices the quantity and quality these will change. Technologies as electronics, bioelectronics, nanotechnologies, MEMS (micro-electro-mechanical systems with an integration of mechanical elements, sensors, actuators, and electronics on a common silicon substrate), communication technologies, fabrication processes (including letting analogue, digital and RF (radio frequency) circuits on one chip) will participate in this development and the security area is seen as a main driving force. Especially the possibility of a variety of cheaper amount of sensors is seen as essential in the development of data capturing (Saracco et al. 2004 p. 17).

Human interfacing is affective computers, which can customize the communication to the actual mood of the user and will be used for the computer to understand the special interplay between individuals, which is not a possibility to day. The communication will be based on understanding instead of formalised commands. Artificial intelligence, agents based dialogues and many others will be part of this evolution both as driver and as barrier (Saracco et al. 2004 p. 18).

The development in new Information display may be crucial for several sectors as design, medicine and entertainment and is based on both fixed and mobile displays. It is supposed that the 2D technology will have the majority for the next 15 years, but the 3D technology will also evolve the next 5-8 years in different niches and in the next decade it will become more and more common (Saracco et al. 2004 p. 18).

Information retrieval is in a high growth and it is expected that the amount of data that are collected will be doubling every two or three years for the next 20 years. Going from data to information will be one of the great tasks for the next decades and a lot of technology innovations are needed to secure this transformation (Saracco et al. 2004 p. 18).

Pin pointing technologies by tagging, beacons and satellites will be common at the end of the next decade and already by 2008 most products will have a tag. The next step will be tags integrated in services and in information. The barriers will be problems with security and privacy, but it is supposed that these problems will be overcome. The tagged society is predicted to integrate the information technology with medicine and biology (Saracco et al. 2004 p. 18-19).

Printing is one of the technology areas which has evolved significant and will do so in the next decades. Printers will around 2015 be embedded in objects or the printer embedded in the printing materials. The evolution could contain the possibility to print 3D images or biological materials as human tissue. From 2010 printing will be able in interaction with the user and to upgrade itself. By 2020 the technology will be to print whole objects instead of today’s use of drops of ink (Saracco et al. 2004 p. 19).

Processing has been evolved by doubling every 18 month^[3] in the last 30 years. This trend will continue because of the demand for decreases in fixed costs through higher volume production and squeezed size on the products, which will demand higher processing. By 2020 it is supposed that every object will have a processing capability embedded (Saracco et al. 2004 p. 19).

Storage has been doubling every year the last 10 years, with a decreased price on 10 % as a result with an introduction of new storage technologies every 10 years (floppy to diskette to CD-rom and so forth) and holographic disk based on thin polymer as the new technology for the next decade. The shifts in technology have a great impact on the whole sphere of the industries. There is no sign on slowing down the evolution or decrease in price. The development of capacity will make it possible to store so much information that local virtual internets will be possible to create and everything will be recordable with enabling new services and maybe industries. By 2020 the storage will not be a limiting factor (Saracco et al. 2004 p. 18).

3.2.2.2 Areas of ICT application

Several researchers try to illustrate the complexity of the application of ICT by reducing the amount of applications by putting them together in overall application fields that together attempt to contain all specific applications. Wunnik et al point to the following fields of application as environmentally important, which means that ICT could imply positive and/or negative changes in the environment impact (Wunnik et al 2004 p. 559):

Such a division of applications will surely cut off some applications, but having in mind that ICT is so incorporated in all aspects of the western society, it is very important to somehow make a base for the illustration of the huge applications of ICT.

3.2.2.3 Possible future disruptions in the ICT development

The possible disruptions earlier mentioned are important to assess because they describe possible decisive technological shifts and thereby functionalities and services and finally the adoption of ICT that disrupt markets as they are known. New actors have the opportunity to be enrolled in the markets and disruptions can create brand new markets by transforming mature businesses into new ones. It makes the evolution spin once more, where new technologies in new markets are attached to a brand new set of rules. The assessment of these disruptions is focusing on why and how, instead of when and what may occur. The disruptions can be addressed by technological enabling factors, market driven factors, industry impact, market sectors affected and likeliness to happen (Saracco et al. 2004 p.152).

The accessibility of central management (because distribution centres is becoming easier together with cheaper and cheaper technologies) is enabling the transformation of products into services. An example would be that instead of selling hardware companies turn to give hardware for free to their clients that enable services also provided from the company (Saracco et al. 2004 p.153). (A parallel example of this today, are mobile phones that are sold for 1 DKK, with a contract on the service “calling and other features” that are unbreakable for six months).

This trend in more and more integrated and distributed software based services and less visible and smaller – even miniaturised – products and computer equipments will include some of the following developments:

The disappearance of the computer is already in progress. A lot of micro processors are embedded in other devices such as remote controls, microwave ovens etc. This tendency is predicted to increase significantly, supplemented with computers embedded in devices that seamless will interconnect with a lot of displays attached in televisions, watches, mobile phones etc. The PC will be integrated into various devices that interconnect with each other. At the same time the appearance of storage, processing, sensing and communicating in every day objects will create new possible services for these objects (Saracco et al. 2004 p.156).

Ubiquitous seamless connectivity is the trend of a shift in connectivity. Connectivity by a fixed line will probably to some extent shift to a cable free technology but in general the connectivity will increase. Pervasive computing will be a big part of this development. The ubiquitous connectivity in general will likely increase the amount of services offered and it will result in a general increase of competitiveness (Saracco et al. 2004 p.156).

To day the information traffic is often fixed to a higher download speed than the uploading, but it is expected that in the future that a more open traffic will be needed and changing traffic patterns will occur. The need to upload and download increased amounts of data e.g. digital photos, calls upon more flexible traffic and not fixed as today. Furthermore changes in the disappearing computer will need a 24hour connection and network solution that is not fixed but is flexible and possible to change locally (Saracco et al. 2004 p.157-158).

The productivity and the possibilities of printing products locally will increase the amount of disposable products. The advantage of disposal products is that they can be customized in a higher degree than products produced in the industry but the lifetime of such products is suspected to be somewhat shorter than products known today. With all of these disposable products, problems will probably occur in the recycling phase (Saracco et al. 2004 p.156-161).

It is supposed that systems will be able to take local decisions that will affect other local decisions by mimicking living organism without been connected to a central control system. These systems will be more responsive and be better to fit to a changing environment and approach the issue of interoperability in a new way on a new level resulting in autonomous systems (Saracco et al. 2004 p. 162).

The production of information content is supposed to double every three years and the relationship between customers and products is changing. The way of packaging the products are becoming more and more decisive for the success of the products and the connected services. The packaging technologies are expected to be developed in the future and will be a part of the competitiveness of a broad range of industries going from content to packaging (Saracco et al. 2004 p.164)

In future it will be possible for local resources to plan different services or events and using well known and well trusted organisations as their presenter and emergence of virtual infrastructures will be possible. This could be entertainment performed by locals and backed up by a professional company by a virtual presentation. This will mean that organisations will have greater possibilities to present their products all over the world relatively simple, cheap and with a minor effort. Local or country-wide businesses will be challenged by multinational businesses across the world (Saracco et al. 2004 p.165-166).

3.3 ICT and the environment

The relationship between ICT and the environmental aspects and impacts of these technologies are not fully understood, and the literature maintains typically a rather general and idealised view of the relationship and is often not capable of analysing the complexity of the ICT technologies and their applications. These limitations may be due to the fact that most discussions tend to describe the relationship at a rather generalised level, where the specificities of both technology and the conditions for its use and impacts are not clearly understood. The main focus in most research is anyhow placed on the overall impact of ICT on the economy and on societal changes in general, which then in some cases is related to the environmental impacts of these broader economic and social changes and transformations. Despite this lack of detailed understanding of the environmental impacts of ICT, these technologies are very often identified as having important contributions to developments that will eventually provide the base for decoupling the economy growth from environmental degradation (Ryan 2004 p.63).

The environmental aspects are most often not included or considered as an issue in technical and social innovations. The literature is in contrary describing issues like ICT and the relationship to e.g. process optimization, the use of consumer products, new features and functional possibilities, and relations to international standards mostly from a techno-centric point of view including aspects of economic and social impacts of the technology. The very few studies of the relationship between environmental aspects and ICT are provided by scientists typically not enrolled in the ICT complex. This view is supported by the fact that the literature search of this report only found a few hits including environmental aspects, compared to the thousands of hits addressing technical issues of ICT’s. Also the chemical aspects relating to the use and impact of ICT are as well not frequently addressed. The tendency, though, is showing a gradual change in the recent years where more of the identified articles include environmental aspects of ICT’s and more often addresses – at least by wording – questions of the role of ICT’s in relation to sustainability issues. This is also stressed by the Eco Lab 03 report (Ryan 2004 p. 65) and in Berkhout & Hertins report to the OECD (2001), which have made an important contribution to this part of the research.

Many reports describe a nearly automatic effect of increased use of ICT as a reduction of the resource consumption in society, because ICT is based upon handling of information instead of physical materials. The problem with such a statement is that the environmental impact resulting from the development and use of ICT is not analyzed in details, but only at a very general and even speculative level. The research is not looking into the impact of ICT on more specific economic and social processes and the impact of such changes on environmental impact from resource consumption and wastes and emissions. It is often claimed that the industrialised societies have been able to reduce their use of some resources during the same period as the strong development of ICT and the industrialised societies are often named as ‘knowledge societies’, knowledge economies’ or ‘information societies’. It is, however, important to be aware that the reduction in the industrial countries’ use of some resources since the ICT-application started to accelerate could be the result of quite straightforward economic measures to reduce materials cost and make processes more efficient in combination with a parallel relocation of a part of the resource intensive industries to developing countries (ex. textile, iron and steel, manufacturing, and electronics industry). Also the often presented idea of ICT’s substituting the need for transportation and mobility need to be studied more in detail to show evidence at a larger scale. The model in these assumed positive impacts of the use of ICT is taking from the idea of new technologies being more efficient and substituting older technologies. In the case of ICT another model seem to show as much relevance: the parallel growth in the use of ICT’s and the demand for other material goods, transportation and even more mobility. In this sense, the use of ICT is not just a question of monitoring, controlling, communicating, and processing information in more efficient ways, but also an independent enabler of new patterns of consumption, production and mobility.

Few reports like (Berkhout & Hertin, 2001) and (Ryan 2004) come up with some more detailed and complex perception of the relationship between ICT and the environment and do not see this automatic greening of society from the use of ICT. Ryan (2004) explains that since ICT is used to handle information it is important which information the technology is provided to work with and which control mechanisms in companies and public regulation etc. which determine the use of the technologies and the information.

Globally seen, there is a general need for further research and monitoring of the ICT environmental impacts (Matthews 2003 p.1765) and in general the few research reports available are very critical about the possible environmental positive impact from the use of ICT. In the development of ICT no automatic mechanism or driving force seems to exist taking the environmental aspect into consideration. The perspective in the article by Matthews is very pessimistic about the ability of ICT innovations to include environment as an important parameter. This includes the development of equipment, production technology and processes. In general this research emphasises that regulation of the area is necessary. Furthermore the area is seen as having a very deterministic approach and seems to be convinced that the technology progress will be the solution for any problems that might occur either generated from the technology itself of by the actors around it. An example of this is the constant replication of the belief in and the seeking of fulfilling Moore’s law, which in effect does not address the overall efficiency of ICT usage but only the handling of simple data (Berkhout & Hertin 2001). This is sometimes mentioned as an example of the dramatic expansion of ICT efficiency, but does not relate to the other side of this development, that more and more processes – earlier not involving ICT at all – now are affected by and include ICT due to the constantly reduced costs of applying ICT’s.

Ryan sees the general the development of ICT as driven by the search for better output, efficiency, new types of usage, and usability. He claims that the environmental aspects seldom are seen as a self-contained driving force, though the use of ICT in product design sometimes is used for the development of lighter products with the use of less material and thereby some potential environmental benefits. But as a technology, which not by itself is based on material processes and transforms energy as a primary purpose for direct use, the environmental aspects of ICT’s include all possible types of environmental problems in relation to the production and/or consumption processes the ICT application is involved with. No known environmental problem can therefore be seen as not influenced by ICT, while at the same time, the direct impact of ICT’s today shows the growing need to regulate the tremendous growth in electronic – often even non-recyclable and toxic – waste to which ICT brings a larger and larger part.

The relationship between ICT and the environment can be illustrated by ordering the impacts at three different levels, presented in the following. The definition of these three levels of environmental impacts is based on the studies of Berkhout & Hertin (2001), Ryan (2004) and Wunnik et al (2004).

First order relationships between ICT and the environment are the direct environmental impact from the ICT equipment and ICT infrastructure, i.e. the use of resources and the environmental impact from manufacture, operation, and disposal of ICT equipment and infrastructure.

Second order relationships between ICT and the environment are the environmental impacts related to the use of ICT within different areas of application. These relations are the most important concerning the potential substitution of other processes stressing the environment, and improving the efficiency of production processes etc. Some of these applications are environmental oriented applications as monitoring of a certain environmental issue or process regulation with e.g. focus on reduction of energy or material consumption. Most applications, however, are not developed with emphasis on their environmental aspects, and as already mentioned some of the environmental impacts are quite complex to assess.

Third order relationships between ICT and environment are the consequences of changes in the societies’ total use of resources through changes in the magnitude of different business and product areas. This type of impact is represented in the possible parallel growth in e.g. the access to information and the consumption of material goods and transportation. This level of impact also includes social and structural changes in production and consumption resulting from the implementation of ICT’s almost everywhere.

Table 3.1 elaborates the three levels of relationships between ICT and environment further and present those areas of application, which are analysed in details later in the chapter. They have been chosen based on (Berkhout & Hertin, 2001), (Ryan, 2004) and (Wunnik et al, (2004), interviews with Danish stakeholders and the project workshops.

Table 3.1. Framework for the assessment of the relationships between ICT and environment (inspired by (Berkhout & Hertin, 2001, Ryan 2004 p.64, Wunnik et al 2004 p.560)).

Wunnik et al have used computer simulations to predict the impacts on the environment from the future ICT and compared them with a so called ICT freeze situation, where the applications of ICT remain the same level as in 2000. The results are not that straightforward. Total freight transport, total passenger transport, share of renewable energy in electricity (RES) and the amount of waste not recycled are predicted to increase by the development of ICT. On the other hand the private car transport, total energy consumption and total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are predicted to decrease. The results presented by Wunnik et al. show that the overall impact on the chosen indicators may vary between approximately -20 and +30 %. Wunnik et al do not see these figures as the most important result from their study, but the fact that the application of ICT’s is a constant battle to avoid further negative impacts on the environment, and definitely not a very important contribution of its own to solving the environmental problems of contemporary society. It is claimed that it is necessary to find ways of promoting the environmentally positive aspects and inhibiting the negative ones (Wunnik et al 2004 p.560).

3.3.1 Environmental impact related to ICT-equipment and –infrastructure

This section looks at the first order effects related to ICT-equipment and ICT-infrastructure. The section is structured along the overall life cycle phases of a product, which are extraction and manufacturing of raw materials, manufacturing of components and products, use of the ICT product, disposal and transport.

The first order impacts cover environmental impacts in terms of e.g. global warming, acidification, nutrient enrichment and effects from emission of toxic substances. Another important impact related to the life cycle of ICT products is the depletion of the scarce resources, which are essential to manufacturing of electrical and electronic equipment.

3.3.1.1 Extraction and manufacturing of raw materials

The most important raw materials used for manufacturing electrical and electronic equipment are (Kuehr et. al. 2003) and (Blum 1996):

Table 3.2. Important raw materials applied in the manufacturing of electrical and electronic equipment.

Manufacturing of raw materials requires energy to extract e.g. copper from the copper ore. This process will inevitable also leave a great deal of waste material behind and it may cause serious environmental impacts in the form of local pollution of soil and water depending on the conditions and precautions taken at the specific mining site.

Some of the raw materials essential to modern electronics like copper, tin, silver, gold and platinum are based on scarce resources. That a resource is scarce means that the known deposits of the respective ores that are economically profitable will only last for a short period of time. Examples of supply horizons for some relevant resources are shown in table 3.3.

This does not necessarily mean that the resources will be used up after this number of years, but it indicates that the price will rise along with a reduced amount of these raw materials and the rising costs for exploitation. This will most certainly also imply an increase in the energy consumption along with other environmental impacts caused by the exploitation.

The most important trend in the use of raw materials for ICT products seems to be the phase out of lead due to the RoHS directive (RoHS 2003), which demands that new electrical and electronic equipment put on the market should not (among others) contain lead. Lead will typically be substituted by tin or alloys of tin, silver, copper and/or bismuth (STMicro 2004) and (Ascencio 2004). Other trends are focussing on the phase-out of brominated flame retardants – not just PBB and PBDE which are covered by the RoHS directive, but also brominated flame retardants in general (Electronics goes green 2004). Research about alternative materials for printed wiring boards (PWB) based on renewable resources (lignin) and thermoplastics has been initiated (Electronics goes green 2004). The environmental improvements might be obtained because recycling is made possible and the application of brominated flame retardants can be eliminated. The “New Materials” session at the Electronics goes green 2004+ conference did not disclose any indications of other decisive trends in the application of raw materials for electrical and electronic equipment (Electronics goes green 2004).

3.3.1.2 Manufacturing of components and products

ICT-products constitute a significant part of the GDP of most industrialised countries and it is still a growing field. Also the amount of ICT-equipment is quite big and increasing. The environmental impacts of the manufacturing of these goods include emissions to air and water of heavy metals and solvents and other substances that are carcinogenic and/or neurotoxic. In the recent years some environmental impacts related to the manufacturing have decreased per produced unit through process management and substitution of some hazardous materials. However, of the materials used in the manufacturing of ICT-equipment only two percent ends up in the product itself (Berkhout & Hertin 2001 p. 7-8).

For some of the more vital parts of an ICT product the waste ratio is even higher. The manufacturing of a 2 g chip implies the use of 970 g of fossil fuel and 72 g of chemical substances which is approx. 500 times the mass of the chip (Kuehr 2003). Miniaturization of components and in some cases also products does not necessarily imply a decrease in the use of materials – in some cases the reverse is the case, as the miniaturization can require a higher purity of the production processes and the materials, which increases the demand to the materials and increases the amount of waste (Ryan 2004, p. 125).

The systematic application of ecodesign as an integrated part of the product development procedure will probably decrease the environmental impacts measured per functional unit (Ong 2004) and (Pascual 2004). However the functional unit is constantly expanding. E.g. 7-10 years ago a mobile phone was just a phone. Today it is still called a “mobile phone” though it is hard to find a device which is not also a (video) camera, a calendar, a notebook, a game boy, mp3 player etc. This extended functionality of the mobile phone means an increase in consumption of materials and energy (Legarth 2002). The introduction of multifunctional products like the mobile phone does not seem to reduce the demand for e.g. digital cameras or mp3 players (BFE 2005).

This trend also applies to other ICT product groups where the functionality of “the typical mainstream product” is continuously expanding. Intel predicts that a processor in 2015 will pack 20 to 30 billion (10⁹) transistors pr. square inch (Ramanathan 2005). The development seems to continue and opens up to new applications that have been enabled by the increased computer power.

The environmental improvements, which have taken place, have thus been overtaken by the increase in functionality (and the number of products as mentioned above). Furthermore, the environmental improvements are not a result of a demand for “green products” as this does not exist among customers or regulatory authorities (Stevels 2004 & Campino 2004).

3.3.1.3 Use of ICT products

Despite numerous attempts of decreasing the energy use during the use of ICT-products, the aforementioned development of the number of products used and the development of the product functionality undermine these efforts (Berkhout & Hertin 2001 p. 8). The operation of the ICT-infrastructure is estimated to account for 3-4 % of the use of energy in the industrialised countries (Ryan 2004, p.125). Set-top boxes (integrated receiver decoders) are projected to add some 6,000 GWh of power demand in the UK by 2010 (Berkhout & Hertin 2001 p. 8).

Of the total environmental impact over the life cycle of an ICT product 50 to 85% is estimated to be due to the energy consumption in the use phase (Stevels 2004). It is thus worth while to have a closer look at the nature of this power consumption.

The energy consumption of an ICT product can often be divided into three states (Elsparefonden 2004):

On Mode/Active Power is the state where the device is active and carrying out its primary function. This could be when the user watches TV, talks on the phone, writes on the pc etc.

Sleep Mode/Low Power is the state when the device is not active but ready to respond to signals from the user or another system. This could be when the TV is ready to respond to a signal from the remote control, the mobile phone is ready to respond to an incoming call, the printer is ready to receive a file for printing etc. In this state the ICT product will usually operate at reduced power consumption.

Off Mode/Standby Power is the state when the device is switched off by the user but it is still connected to the power outlet. Many ICT products will also have electricity consumption in this state. This might be because there is a clock to “keep alive” or the stored TV-channels will be lost if the power is switched off.

As many devices like e.g. computers, fax machines, TVs and videos might spent almost 24 hours a day in either the Sleep mode or the Off mode there is a huge potential for improvements and it is possible to manufacture products that can cope with tough requirements to the energy consumption (Miljømærkesekretariatet). The standby losses in households were already in 1998 estimated by IEA to account for 5-15% of the residential energy use (Berkhout & Hertin 2001 p. 8). Recent estimates say that in Denmark half of the energy consumption for running TVs, videos and PCs is used for standby or sleep modes, where the devices are not actively being used. This corresponds to approx. 10% of the energy consumption for private households (Elsparefonden 2005). This issue is addressed by different regulatory initiatives, including incentives (Elsparefonden 2004) and (EuP directive proposal 2003).

The density of transistors has now reached a level where the energy consumption related to the operation of the processor has reached a level, where it is realised by main semiconductor manufacturers that it is necessary to reduce the energy consumption in order to maintain a proper and reliable function of their products (Ramanathan 2005):

“Currently, every one percent improvement in processor performance brings a three percent increase in power consumption. This is because, as transistors shrink and more are packed into smaller space, and as clock frequencies increase, the leakage current likewise increases, driving up heat and power inefficiency. If transistor density continues to increase at present rates without improvements in power management, by 2015 microprocessors will consume tens of thousands of watts per square centimetre.”

Low energy consuming ICT products only implies savings to the customer, who has so far only demonstrated a very modest interest, and thus left no incentive behind for the manufacturer to develop such products. An exception to this general trend are some public purchasers (Elsparefonden 2004) who have uncovered potential savings by using PCs and other equipment that deal with energy in a more responsible way. It should be born in mind that development of real low energy consuming equipment like laptop computers, LCD screens, mobile phones, portable “music machines” etc. all have been driven by the demand to the functionality and not by the intention to reduce the power consumption itself.

The increasing number of products and the ever expanding functionality of what is considered an average main stream ICT product (as mentioned in the previous section) is seriously contributing to an increase in the energy consumption in the use phase and will probably outdo those improvements that might be a result of the development of the technology and future regulatory initiatives.

For another product group related to ICT, the development has been somewhat different. The market for refrigerators and freezers in the EU has been covered by an energy labelling framework (Directive 2003/66/EC), where the products are labelled according to their energy consumption. In Denmark in 2004 the sales in the best category (A+ & A++) was 60% (Hvidevarepriser.dk 2005). The reason for this success seems to consist of:

Whether similar success would be possible for ICT products is hard to predict. Regarding especially consumer electronics the decision of purchase is probably more driven by fashion and “what is cool” as the purchase of for example a freezer is more based on common sense. For ICT products used in the infrastructure (servers, telecommunication equipment etc.) the most important issue is reliable operation and any environmental improvements that might just slightly intimidate the reliability, will probably be difficult to sell.

3.3.1.4 Disposal

The speed of development and adjustment of products in the ICT sector and products containing ICT-components is often extremely high as the performance, memory and the transmission of data is constantly increasing (Berkhout & Hertin 2001 p. 9). Many products are disposed of as they still possess their full functionality simply because expanding performance and functionality is presented to the customer in the shape of new products (Erichsen & Willum 2003). The effect of this rapid innovation is an extremely high turnover of hardware and software which result in an increased amount of electronic waste. The waste includes electronics with copper, lead, mercury, flame retardants and plastic softeners (Berkhout & Hertin 2001 p. 8). It is a prioritised area within EU with, as earlier mentioned, several directives in operation or preparation (Ryan 2004 p.124) and (Berkhout & Hertin 2001 p. 8). A result of this focus is the WEEE directive (Waste from Electrical and Electronic Equipment) (WEEE directive 2003), which reflects an ambition to deal with the issue of the increasing amount of waste electrical and electronic equipment. The directive is discussed later in this chapter.

The reuse of most ICT equipment (meaning e.g. the reuse of components) is minimal (Renner 2004), although some reuse of PC’s has been organised as projects aiming at supplying PC’s to poorer countries. The recycling of ICT (meaning e.g. re-melting and extraction of metals) is a well established activity in many countries supported by an efficient infrastructure and legislation (Danish legislation 1998) and (Swedish directive 2000). Especially the extraction of precious metals from waste electrical and electronic equipment is quite effective (Busch 2003).

3.3.1.5 Transport

The production of the ICT-components and products is often organised in globally extended supply chains, which implies a high use of energy for distribution. A typical PC contains 1500-2000 components sourced from around the world, and typically transported by air. The complexity and scale of the global electronics sector means that the aggregate environmental impacts of the supply chains are large (Berkhout & Hertin 2001 p. 8). Furthermore an increasing number of products are assembled far from the regions where they are marketed. Both trends are increasing and imply an increasing environmental impact due to transport of raw materials, components, subassemblies and end-user products. There is also the risk that the waste handling and waste water treatment is of a poorer quality in the countries outside Europe, where most of the manufacturing takes place. This means that not only has the environmental impact from the manufacturing of the ICT products for the Western countries been moved outside these countries the impact has probably also increased due to the mentioned poorer environmental infrastructure.

3.3.2 European Environmental legislation concerning electronic and electrical equipment

3.3.2.1 Directive on Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment – WEEE

The producers of EE-equipment must provide information to recyclers and it should be implemented in national legislation by August 2005, but in Denmark it is implemented 1 January 2006 (Ecodesign 2005) and (Con. Grau MST 2005). The directive is relatively clear on which forms of WEEE that are included. All electrical and electronic equipment from households and from the industry is divided into equipment groups. The directive is quite clear on which substances that have to be handled separately and in amount in kilos it is approximately the double of the amount today (Con. Grau MST 2005).

The handling including collection and disposal of the waste generated is in Denmark delegated to the Danish municipalities. The general principle of the Danish implementation of WEEE (after public hearings) is that the simple waste handling should be minimized and the recycling and reuse should increase. Based on the polluter pays principle (formulated in the directive) the producers or those who import the products will play a key role and will be accounted for the environmental impact in the after-use phase with the reprocessing as another key factor. The system will be functioning in two separate systems, the municipal based and a private based (Braun & Dirckinck-Holmfeld 2005 p. 7). The private based system will handle the industrial WEEE, while the municipal based collects the household WEEE and gather it at recycling stations, where the producers must take over. The municipalities or consumers will keep the expenses from the collection of the household waste (Con. Grau MST 2005).

On the top a non-profit organisation will be formed with the responsibility for registration of producers, their amount and different types of products put on the market. They will certify and check the waste managers and third party organisers, as well as providing the Danish environmental protection agency with statistical information (Braun & Dirckinck-Holmfeld 2005 p. 7). The handling of industrial WEEE will probably require and include a number of more practical units as supplement to the overall administrative organisation. These third party operators will manage the logistic issues related to the waste management. These issues could be contracts with producers, contacts with different contractors and contracts with companies responsible of reprocessing and other treatments. The implementation proposal contains a segment of competition, which should facilitate innovation with increased recovery and decreasing costs (Braun & Dirckinck-Holmfeld 2005 p. 7-8).

Another alternative allowed is that producers organise their own take back system. This will require a bank guarantee for the overall organisation if anything should go wrong (Braun & Dirckinck-Holmfeld 2005 p. 8).

Regarding the specific handling of the WEEE the Danish EPA will describe what the producers must do and which fractions the handling will give. The producers are left alone in setting up the necessary processes to do so. Most of the new required processes are disassembly, which will be done manually and are very easy for existing companies to do and does not require big investments (Con. Grau MST 2005).

Regarding the household waste the implementation of the directive will open the existing system in a way so that every private provider with a waste manager certificate can bid on a task. In Denmark the municipalities have had monopoly on the waste management from households. The payment structure of the municipal system will be changed so that the producers instead of the consumers will held the economic costs in compliance with the directive. This is done through payment according to market share (calculated by kg or parts sold). Finally the minister of environment can prohibit certain products, which are designed without possible reuse, and the producer must provide information to the waste manager for reprocessing of the product within a year of the marketing date (Braun & Dirckinck-Holmfeld 2005 p. 8).

As this directive is being implemented into national legislation in all 25 EU member countries it is supposed to cause:

The fulfilment of these predictions is of course based on the assumption that the intentions in the WEEE directive actually are implemented in all EU countries. There will always be attempts to reduce the cost of proper waste treatment e.g. to define the waste as “second hand goods” and export it to countries outside the EU (Gabel 2005). However, as much waste electrical and electronic equipment is being handled through reseller chains, who might put their reputation at stake if they were associated with irregular export, it is expected that most electronic waste will be treated according to the national regulations derived from the WEEE directive.

Another concern might be whether this directive (WEEE directive 2003) would imply any improvements based on a better design (seen from an environmental point of view). The article 7 requires that e.g. for IT and telecommunications equipment the rate of “component, material and substance reuse and recycling shall be increased to a minimum of 65 % by an average weight per appliance”. Though it is not clear from directive how the implementation of the article 7 should be supervised, it is expected to cause some improvement in many ICT-products and other products. At least some producers have been inspired by a close dialogue with an electronic waste recycling company in order to integrate the knowledge of the recycler in future product design, and thus decrease the time for disassembly and increase the rate of recycling and by that also reduce the cost for end-of-life treatment (Busch 2003).

The regulation will not directly foster the producers to develop products hazardous substances. This is handled in the RoHS directive (Con. Grau MST 2005).

3.3.2.2 Directive on the Restriction of the use of certain Hazardous Substances in electrical and electrical equipment – RoHS

The RoHS directive introduces ban on the use of lead, mercury, cadmium, hexavalent chromium, beryllium and on certain brominated flame retardants (PBB & PBDE). The directive had to be implemented in national legislation by August 2004 (Ecodesign 2005).

In Denmark the statutory order LBK Nr. 1008 from 12/10/2004 is the legal implementation of the directive and is banning import and sale of the mentioned substances by 1 July 2006. ICT products are encompassed in the statutory order as well as a great part of possible embedded ICT applications in e.g. domestic appliances, electrical and electronic tools. Supervisory control is located at the Danish Environmental Protection Agency (LBK Nr.21). The directive will result in a softening of the existing Danish legislation by permitting higher limit values and including some exceptions on lead, aluminium, copper alloys and regarding mercury in different fluorescent tubes, which the Danish legislation do not encompass today (LBK Nr. 21), (LBK Nr. 1012), (LBK Nr. 1199) and (LBK Nr. 627). Through the chemical inspection measures will be performed to control compliance. This will probably be done by checking of rumours and by campaigns assessing different products through e.g. chemical analysis. These measures will probably be initiated in 2007 giving the business a change to implement the new regulation (Con. Heron MST 2005).

The Danish EPA has participated in different meetings, where business has discussed the impact of the directive and how it should be understood. At these meetings EPA has urged the business to build up co-operation and distribution mechanisms of experiences and knowledge. There is no overview of the scope of such initiatives but experience groups are formed. Furthermore B&O and Grundfos have participated in a project looking at producing lead-free (Con. Heron MST 2005).

3.3.2.3 The framework directive 2005/32/EC for setting up eco-design requirements for energy-using products – EuP

The directive does not introduce directly binding requirements for specific products, but does define conditions and criteria for setting, through subsequent implementing measures, requirements regarding environmentally relevant product characteristics (such as energy consumption) and allows them to be improved quickly and efficiently (Ecodesign 2005).

After adoption of the Directive by the Council and the European Parliament, the Commission, assisted by a Committee, will be able to implement measures on specific products and environmental aspects (such as energy consumption, waste generation, water consumption, extension of lifetime) after impact assessment and broad consultation of interested parties (Ecodesign 2005).

The directive aims at creating a legislative framework for addressing eco-design requirements with the aim of:

All energy driven devices are covered by the directive except means of transportation. Expected product categories that most likely will be regulated are domestic appliance, office equipment and consumer electronics. Computers and televisions are predicted to be the first products to be regulated via EuP (Con. Traberg MST 2005).

The choice of products to regulate will probably be done by looking at environmental impact, the possible environmental improvement potentials and the volume of the product pool. A voluntary effort will be preferable (Con. Traberg MST 2005). It is likely that only those using electricity, solid, liquid and gaseous fuels will be the subject of implementing measures. The framework Directive defines the criteria for selecting products that can be covered by implementing measures (Ecodesign guide). The regulation can be standards for energy consumption, water consumption, noise, chemicals and recycling of products (Con. Traberg MST 2005).

If a product is regulated two different legal instruments can be used: limit values and “minor life cycle assessments”. For energy and noise it is supposed that limit values will be used. The “minor life cycle assessments” are supposed to contain an action plan where the producers has to make an assessment on specific substances, which the Commission define as important regarding the particular product (Con. Traberg MST 2005).

EuP will not overrule other directives as RoHS, and WEEE. National regulation will probably be overruled but the Danish EPA expects that the environmental gains through the directive will overcome the losses from degradation of some Danish regulation (Con. Traberg MST 2005).

In Denmark the negotiation with the EU Commission is placed at the “Energirådet” (Council of Energy) but as the directive will include possible regulation on energy consumption, water consumption, noise, chemicals and recycling, the implementation of the directive and the implementing measures will be a joint process between the Danish EPA and the Danish Energy Agency (Con. Traberg MST 2005).

3.3.3 Presentation of the areas of application for detailed analysis

Based on the project desk research, especially building upon the studies of Ryan (2004) and Berkhout & Hertin (2001), the interviews carried out in the project, and the project workshops we have selected five overall areas of application for ICT for further analysis, as mentioned earlier in the chapter. These areas cover fields, where the use and application of ICT has been highlighted as a possible strategy for achieving environmental improvements or present new or radically changing environmental risks. The five areas of ICT application are:

The application of ICT in improving environmental knowledge includes the use of sensors for collection of information about emissions to the environment or measuring the state of the environment, the use of ICT for comprehensive data processing and modelling, and the exchange of data and information related to environmental aspects among different actors within or between different societal arenas. This exchange could involve the public arena, NGO’s, environmental professionals, companies etc.

The use of ICT in the design of products and processes includes the use of tools like Computer Aided Design (CAD) in the design of physical products and Computer Aided Processing Engineering in the design of chemical products and processes in order to optimise different properties and aspects related to the life cycle of the products and processes.

The use of ICT in process regulation and control includes basically the use of ICT in the overall monitoring and control of industrial processes, energy systems, building management, and infrastructure systems in society. The possibility of online measurements of process parameters and the continuous regulation of processes in order to monitor and control different aspects of these processes represent today one of the most obvious and distributed application areas for ICT, which is more or less taken for granted.

The use of ICT in intelligent products and applications is a widely discussed area of ICT applications. Under the heading of e.g. pervasive computing, ambient intelligence and ubiquitous computing the examples of future visions are manifold. It includes the use of for example sensors to collect information, handling of these information in the product and the possibility of giving feedback to the users of the product in order to optimise the use hereof.

Transport, logistics and mobility is an area that is highly energy intensive due to the large amounts of goods transported and the growing personal mobility based on easier access to transport systems. The use of ICT has been discussed as means for the reduction of environmental impact in different ways. The analyses includes the role of telework (including telecommuting, teleconferencing a.o.), E-business (including teleshopping and B2B (Business to Business)), and transport logistics (surveillance, optimisation etc.).

3.4 Improving Environmental Knowledge

(Ryan 2004, p. 84-89) points out that ICT have had and can have big importance for the knowledge base within the environmental field:

3.4.1 New sensor systems

Sensors could become a significant part of an improved environmental knowledge base in the future, but further development of sensors themselves is necessary to fully utilise the possibilities of this technology. The development of sensors with better precision and new functionalities will be important in the field of gathering new and reliable information (Ryan 2004 p. 85). Another important aspect will be the price of the sensors. The sensors have to become cheaper before they become attractive to an extent, which implies significant applications (Intelligent workshop 2). Sensors can be used to monitor pressure, moisture, vibration, magnetic fields and much more (Ryan 2004 p. 2004)

The general development of the sensor technology is expected to result in cheaper and smaller sensors through a general need for data in society. The development will include a miniaturisation that could include the development of wireless sensor networks. The driving force at the moment is not environmental applications, which means that the development and the use of sensors for environmental purposes are small compared to other markets for sensors (Int. Lading 2004). The present possibilities of using sensors to gather different environmental data are not at all used due to a very limited environmental interest. The general development in the sensor technology will, however to some extent be beneficial to the collection of environmental data, if the sensors are improved with respect to spatial and spectral resolution, image analysis and pattern recognition (Ryan 2004 p. 86).

Danfoss Analyticals sees a lot of different possibilities in the sensor technology for environmental purposes, if the market should need it (Int. Paasch 2005) & (Intelligent workshop group 2) (see also example later in the chapter). The market for sensors developed directly for environmental use could expand in the future years, if governmental regulation creates a need for this. One possible driving force could be the need for the new EU-countries to comply with EU-legislation within the environmental area (Intelligent workshop group 2).

Sensors integrated into sensor networks can run a software operating system, handle communications through e.g. radio motes (tiny, self-contained, battery-powered computers with radio links) and thereby transfer data along the net. The mote net the sensors are connected to, is so intelligent that they can reconfigure if a sensor are lost or new sensors are added to the network. To save energy the sensors are sleeping most of the time and waking up periodically to measure and send the data when a change in the environment are occurring. In the future these devices might be able to run on energy from light, heat and even on vibration (Ryan 2004 p. 86). For environmental purposes the sensor networks could be used to gather information from open areas instead of closed limited locations. An example is the possibility to use the technology to monitor the condition of a groundwater resource connected to a groundwater pump. It is possible to make a sensor network with a lot of not especially good or accurate sensors, which gather data from a big area of the groundwater resource. The information from one of the sensor would over time not give any interesting results, but when connecting them in a system and look at the patterns in the results the data could become scientific interesting (Intelligent workshop group 2).

Especially in the USA a lot of firms have tried to develop the so called lab on a chip, meaning that normal laboratory facilities, which today might demand a 100 m²room, could be integrated into a small chip so the sampling, analysis and data processing could be done in few minutes at the location. The idea is to make the chip so cheap that they after use could be discarded. Many of these attempts have failed and a lot of the firms have gone bankrupt, but still some expectations are found in this area (Int. Lading 2004).

The environmental implications of the use of sensors depend on the way they are used. If they are used for measurements in the environment it will imply an environmental strategy focusing on cleaning-up and remediation. If the sensors are used inside plants and facilities, they could become part of more preventive environmental strategies (Intelligent workshop group 2).

Danfoss Analytical.

Danfoss Analytical is a leader in Online Analytical Meters for the Waste Water Industry through a micro technology. The technique is a special filter that can separate ions from wastewater and only allowing the ions that is wanted for measurement in the meters.

The company sees potentials in development of sensor networks. The possibilities lie in linking sensors in big environmental measurement systems providing more data to assess and react upon. It could be possible to measure e.g. different discharges of wastewater both in public and industrial installations. More accurate measurements of the outlet of oxygen, ammonium, phosphate and nitrate are possible. Other applications could be monitoring of drinking water reservoirs, which enable reaction before polluted water is pumped into the supply system.

The problem with technological solutions as sensors and other micro techniques is the high production price per unit, why mass production is the only way to reduce the costs. To day the price on sensors are approx. 10,000 Euro, but in order to be interesting in sensor networks used in greater open areas the price has to be around 1,500 Euro. Sensors used in networks linked with each other will not work if distributed randomly. It is necessary to know their exact position to use the data they provide. The sensors need energy from a radio or telecommunication module. Using static electricity will not work, but use of energy from temperature changes could theoretically be enough, but the application has not been developed yet.

EU is the most important market and especially the environmental regulation is important. Environmental assessment and monitoring in the Eastern part of Europe is not very developed but these countries have to do it in order to comply with EU regulation. There might have great export possibilities both in relation to the waste water industry but also in relation to new environmental monitoring and control if regulation demands new efforts.

Source: (Danfoss Analytical 2005 & Con. Paasch 2005)

3.4.2 Distributed computer capacity

The analysis of data, for example collected by the sensors, needs in some cases substantial computer capacity. This includes the possibility to make large scale modelling which is depending on available computer power and software. This could be done by using distributed computer systems, which are expected to provide more computing power than the largest and fastest single computers at a fraction of price. The allocation of unused computer power is the essential idea. The idea is that millions of PC users voluntary provide their unused computer power in a network to help analyse data and performing computer simulations, that are understood as socially or environmental important. Conservative estimations are that distributed computer systems could provide 10 billion megahertz with over 10 thousands terabytes of memory and storage. The development of related software is gone from an initial phase to make new analysis possible (Ryan 2004 p. 89).

3.4.3 Increased knowledge, awareness and action from environmental data

The exchange of environmental data can take place at different arenas – internally in companies or within NGO or research communities. The Internet can be used by these actors to share their information and interpretation of issues within the environmental field. Such collaborative networks have benefited the earth, atmospheric and environmental sciences and the ability to forecast environmental conditions and management of natural resources and enabling large international scientific researches (Ryan 2004 p. 85). The gathering and assessment of the environmental data could also be used in different education purposes both at school level and at higher levels as universities (Ryan 2004 p. 87). Also the NGO community has developed their way of exchanging information and making information available to the public. Ryan stresses that the connection between knowledge, awareness and action rapidly has become a focus for application and further development of ICT, as a way of empowering communities. An example is EnviroLink that unites hundreds of organisations and volunteers with millions of people in more than 150 countries (Ryan 2004 p. 89-90).

A way to integrate environmental criteria in decision-making in industry is to integrate environmental data into systems like Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP). ERP is defined as systems that integrate a series of business processes such as management, monitoring and analysis and is often based on ICT-systems comprising a number of these processes. These systems comprise e.g. physical flows and it is expected that systems with consideration of environmental issues can be developed. The physical flows are described as ”bills of materials”, material flows and receptors. Flows of materials can be characterized in different ways: Elements (i.e. Cd), chemical substances (i.e. SO2), materials (i.e. wood), and parts of products (i.e. motors and bolts).

The existing systems support only to a limited extent the demand of information that is needed for an environmental optimization, but it is expected that such integration is possible since both logistics, which is a typical area within ERP, and environmental assessment are based on physical flows. The framework of ERP has to be developed further in order to integrate the environmental aspects, since today the economic criteria is far the heaviest component in the ERP systems. This way of thinking has to be changed before a functional integration of environmental issues can be performed (Lambert et al 2000 p. 109).

As part of their environmental management some companies use Intranet as access to procedures etc. Experiences from several companies seem to show that these ICT-based networks alone can not secure the necessary integration of environmental issues into i.e. product- and process changes. The reason is that many non-environmentally educated employees do not have the necessary knowledge to use these procedures, checklists etc. developed by environmental specialists. At the same time environmental specialists have difficulties in converting their environmental knowledge to concrete proposals for application in relation to process and product changes. Experiences seem to show that more dialogue between environmental specialists and for example the process- and product developers give a better integration of environment issues into decision making than environmental assessments based entirely on the individual use of procedures from Intranet.

Athena Greenline – Energy and environmental management.

Athena A/S is a Danish IT company that offers various IT-business solutions for organisations and companies and has won an EU-outsourcing project. Athena is one of the oldest IT-consultancy firms in Denmark and has various competencies in the fields where they provide solutions including knowledge about environmental issues. One of their solutions is Athena Greenline, which is a web-based energy and environmental management system for public authorities developed in co-operation with Kolding municipality and used in more than 200 institutions. It is used to make decentralized environmental registrations, targets and follow ups on the performance. The system is new and has only been in operation since June 2004, why an assessment of the improvement in environmental performance can not be provided but the expectations are at least 5-10 % and the success margin is only 1 % for Kolding municipality. The project has reduced the number of man hours used for the administration of environmental issues and making green accounts. The vision with the system is to help the municipality to foster a change in behaviour in all of their institutions.

The future of Athena Greenline is promising and in the merging of the three municipalities - Vojens, Haderslev and Gram Athena Greenline is used as a pilot project in the merging phase. In this way the system is used as a tool in the difficult merging processes. In the future Athena A/S wants to make a similar system for businesses.

The system has various functions including report of electricity, water and heat consumption, energy and environmental reports, energy monitoring and budget, environmental impacts from emissions of CO₂, SO₂ and NO_X,registration of transport, knowledge sharing on energy and environmental issues, registration of green purchases and registration of waste. These specific environmental factors can be changed and developed as it fits the organisation buying it, and Athena can give advice in these issues as well. Athena Greenline can help showing possible energy saving measures if needed. The management system can contribute to savings through a more efficient administration and by pin pointing poor environmental performances.

For convenience of the user the interface is the Internet, which enables a recognizable fast and easy installation in the different institutions of a municipality and allowing both decentralized and centralized administration and monitoring. An environmental or energy portal is easy to make and the only requirements are basic knowledge on e.g. Word. Through an energy portal other actors have easily access to relevant snapshots of the performances. Athena Greenline makes automatically diagrams, tables etc. and could be the base for green accounts. The system is based on open standards and hence communication with other system used is possible so that historical data can be united in Athena Greenline.

Athene Greenline shows the different users their performance compared to both former performance and compared to budgets and objectives and is capable of communicating with the responsible person, who is reporting data. SMS and emails are used to remind the responsible persons about registration both before schedule and if registration is lacking or diverging surprisingly.

Sources: (Athena Greenline 2005, Athena A/S 2005 & Athena 2005)

3.5 Design of products and processes

The ICT-sector has increased by 8 % a year in the period from 1990-1997 in the OECD countries, which is somewhat higher than the general growth (Henten 2001 p. 12). Out of the 8 billion microprocessors produced annually only two percent ends up in computers. The rest ends up in production machinery, home appliances, and white goods, toys, cars, and other transport systems, mobile phones and PDA’s, audio and video equipment etc. Estimates are more than 10,000 telemetric devices per person by 2010 (Ryan 2004 p. 99). The design of products and processes in general, and not only the electronic parts, might be environmentally improved using ICT-based tools for design and optimisation of products and processes. The environmental potentials in the design process are reduction of waste and increased energy efficiency. Often resource efficiency has been a part of the effort, though it is not a general trend (Ryan 2004 p. 102) & (Intelligent work shop group 2).

3.5.1 CAD and environmental databases

Design software and simulation tools can generate products, which fit better to its intended use. It is also possible to integrate environmental design criteria in CAD. It is, however difficult to assess the impact of this form of software disconnected from changes in materials and production processes (Berkhout & Hertin 2001 p. 10). One of the potentials in the use of CAD is the possibility to simulate several alternatives and prototypes with fewer resources compared to physical product modelling, whereby CAD could enable more optimizing phases in a specific product design (Int. Lenau 2005).

Today computer programmes can guide architects to evaluate and compare the design of buildings with respect to layout, location, materials, isolation, shading etc. Research and development aim at integrating environmental databases into design processes to make it easier to choose materials and technologies. An example is LCA databases that can rate materials for designers (Ryan 2004 p. 98) and (Berkhout & Hertin 2001 p. 10). However, several subjective choices are connected to the use of lifecycle assessments (boundaries of the analysed system, choice of alternatives for comparison etc.). This implies that claiming that a certain product is environmentally better than competing products, based on the use of these methods, might lead to controversies. Most of the ICT based technologies used to simulation and design could become environmental tools if the designer wishes to use them for environmental purposes. The problem is that the designers often are focusing on other issues, like functionality, weight, strength and economy. These concerns might lead to environmental improvements (through less consumption of materials, fewer damaged products etc., but might also lead to higher environmental impact (Int. Torben Lenau, 2005).

3.5.2 Topology optimization

Another way of optimizing design is topology optimization, where calculations of products and constructions assess how the shape of an object enables the least consumption of materials, while securing the necessary strength of the product or the construction (Int. Sigmund, 2005). An example of such environmental achievements is the aluminium can where the amount of aluminium has been reduced by 50 % compared with a can 30 years ago (Berkhout & Hertin 2001 p. 10). Changes in aircraft motors and airframe structures are expected to contribute to a reduction in the use of energy of 20 % in 2010 and 50 % in 2050 (Berkhout & Hertin 2001 p. 10) and the typical optimization potentials on old classical and throughout optimized products are about 30 % (Int. Bendsøe 2005). The automobile and aircraft industry have a success rate on respectively 15-20 % and 0.5 % in reduction of weight when using topology optimization on different parts of their products (Int. Bendsøe 2005).

Topology optimization does not at the present stage integrate environmental concerns directly. An integration of environment concerns requires development of the right criteria related to the environmental issues for the system to be optimized, like the reduction of the weight of parts of an airplane or a better aerodynamic shape of a car so they consume less energy during operation. The concept of topology optimization is as concept relative simple. The difficulties in the method lie in the definition of the right framework conditions for the partial differential equations, which are solved as part of the optimisation, because every new type of design problem needs a new definition of the framework conditions (Intelligent work shop group 2).

The future research challenges would be to use topology optimization for multi physics where e.g. pressure, temperature and structures interact with each others. It could be a water pump that generates heat and thereby wear mechanical parts of the pump. This implies that different schools of optimization have to be connected so that both raster representation and edges approaches are used. To day this link does not exist. Furthermore new and better optimization algorithms have to be developed. The problem is that to day companies, which develop these algorithms, do it for large scale usages based on general problems. To use the full extent of topology optimization potentials more specialised algorithms have to be developed. The commercial aspect is the key problem because big international software companies develop these algorithms and they look at the commercial perspectives of their products. In this way the development of software can be a bottleneck for the development and usage of topology optimization.

Another area that topology optimization could be used for is the enclosure of a process, e.g. catalysts or fuel cells, where the method could be used to secure e.g. the most optimized cooling of the system (Int. Bendsøe 2005), which implies cooperation with process researchers and developers as e.g. those working with computer aided process engineering presented below.

In Denmark topology optimization is driven by basic research and the Danish industry is only in a limited extend using it in practice. At the universities the research is at DTU and at Aalborg University. There are only a few companies in Danish industry, which use topology optimization. One of them is Grundfos, where own software was developed 10 years ago. Spin offs from these research environments have resulted in a new and promising Danish performance in fibre optics where topology optimization are used as a basic tools in new products, where the optical computer is the vision. The optical computer will theoretically have greater performance on marginal lower energy consumption (Int. Bendsøe 2005).

A further development within the design area is a combined web-based waste exchange in order to obtain increased recycling. This will demand modelling and product design focused on easy disassembly, like concepts as Design for Disassembly and Design for Recycling. A greater application of such exchange processes seems, however to demand more closed circuit of materials within many product areas than today (Ryan 2004 p. 64).

3.5.3 Computer Aided Process Engineering

Computer Aided Process Engineering as practiced at for example the Department of Chemical Engineering at the Technical University of Denmark is an example of integration of environmental parameters into an IT-based tool for design of products and processes. The key of the tool is the capability through simulation of chemical processes to design and optimize the processes by using partial differential equations for balances of energy and mass and for phenomena like heat transfer etc.

Energy integration at chemical plants can be used to increase the efficiency of the consumption of natural resources and limit pollutant emissions as distillation is far the most widespread solution for industrial separation processes. Distillation stands for around 3 % of the total energy consumption of the Western world so an increased efficient distillation process is very much desired and is possible to obtain through energy integration. Energy integration is basically the reuse of primary energy stream within e.g. a distillation column (Koggersbøl et al. 1996). The process automation could be based on energy and material balances including controllers for the levels in the reboilers, the condensers and accumulators tuned by rules ensuring closed loop time constants at 1 minute for a stable process (Koggersbøl et al. 1996 p. 854).

Another programme can be used for design of solvents through simulation (Computer Aided Molecular Design) fulfilling certain environmental and health related criteria by computer modelling. The tool has integrated energy and mass balances and the WAR-algorithm (WAste Reduction algorithm), developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The proposed solvents and compounds are assessed and ranked based on their environmental and health related properties (Int. Jørgensen 2004). Similar models have been used for modelling more energy efficient separation processes in industry financed by the Danish Ministry of Energy and initiated because of increasing energy costs. Some Danish companies are part of the network and co-operation partners of the centre, but the interest in these models and the possibilities for optimisation of environmental, energy and health aspects seems to be bigger among businesses in foreign countries, if assessed by the number of co-operation partners. The type of calculations involved in the optimisation depends on the increased access to computer based data processing capacity. Calculations done to day in a few minutes would have taken several days 5-10 years ago (Int. Jørgensen 2004).

These tools can be linked to more overall strategies for rationalisation of production processes, such as LEAN and “LEAN-thinking” (Int. 2 2004), (Int. 3 2004) & (Ryan 2004 p. 103) where this understanding of manufacturing and business processes helps identifying bottlenecks or so called critical points. These critical points are seen as the best way of handling the optimization problem (Int. 2 2004). Environmental aspects are normally not directly included in LEAN optimisation. In case the optimisation focuses on reduction of wastes the optimisation might lead to reduction of resource consumption and reduced amount of waste.

The designers have to look at the optimization or design process as a whole with a lot of factors that might not be within their expertise in order to obtain an optimal design and planning. Participation of a number of professional groups in these processes requires bigger computers to handle all the specifications and the information at the same type of computers and thereby avoiding mistakes when transferring data from one type of computer software to another (Int. Jørgensen 2004). (Intelligent workshop group 2).

Table 3.5 Environmental impact from design and planning of products and processes.

3.6 Process regulation and control

Higher resource efficiency can be obtained through a more effective use of materials, less re-manufacturing of low quality products, better logistics and better understanding of the material flows (Ryan 2004 p. 103), (Int. 2 2004) & (Int. Jørgensen 2004). Modern production systems can have thousands of individual microprocessors embedded in them, controlling valves, measuring temperatures, sensing the properties of fluids etc. Today up to 40% of the value of a new manufacturing process is accounted for by the control systems. Precise control is essential for minimising emissions, and waste is an indicator of inefficient processes and process management. Resource productivity improvements of this type have been achieved consistently since computers were introduced into manufacturing over 30 years ago (Berkhout & Hertin 2001 p. 10). Also facility management in buildings regulating the temperatures, lighting etc. is a field of application for ICT-based process control and regulation.

The use of ICT systems in energy technologies has resulted in improvements in energy efficiency through control of lights, motors, boilers, air-conditioners and water heaters. All of this can be integrated into energy management control system (EMCS) which can be assessed and controlled by the Internet (Ryan 2004 p. 107) and (Intelligent work shop group 2). The development of wireless networks used in EMCS could become a driver in the further use of sensors. The technology exists and it is only up to businesses to use it in different applications. Research and development should ensure that different types of equipment can communicate. Development of standards is seen as one of the most important tools in securing an implementation of wireless solutions. When different standards are developed it could be fatal for smaller companies to choice the wrong standard (Intelligent workshop group 2). This is a challenge for the Danish market because it is characterised by a lot of small and medium sized companies, and the development of the standards is not happening in Denmark (Intelligent workshop group 2).

There are big differences in the type of production from sector to sector, but it seems possible, at least within several chemical and biotechnological areas, in the future to obtain a reduction of the resource consumption and the amount of wastes and emissions by going from quality control of final products to online quality control through regulation of the production processes. Traditionally GMP (Good Manufacturing Practice) rules and guidelines, from for example the US FDA (Food & Drug Administration), has limited process development and process optimization because of a high bureaucracy and paper work in the approval and re-approval processes. A future concept in the pharmaceutical industry is Process Analytical Technology (PAT), which is the result of a new regulation strategy from FDA (U.S Department of Health and Human Services 2004) & (Int. 2 2004). The purpose of the new strategy is not environmental achievements, but the release of personal resources for the development of more new products by reducing the control of final products and the amount of waste and re-manufacturing by introducing a more flexible on-line process regulation (Int. 2 2004). The base is the development of ICT-based tools, which makes it possible to make more complex calculations. This could also be used to regulate processes closer to the actual demands (Intelligent workshop group 2).

The background for the development of these possibilities in process regulation and also the previous mentioned possibilities in computer aided design are process and production design based on mathematical models, an increased chemical understanding of the processes and process regulation based on the development in online measuring methods and online systems of regulation. The development is directly based on the development of ICT where the data processing power is and has been the limiting factor. Other ICT technologies, important for the online regulation, are sensors coupled to communication network and computer assisted control. Such systems are needed to gather data and transform it to information so that the regulation can be performed (Int. Jørgensen 2004) and (Int. 2 2004).

3.6.1 Process automation

Process automation includes various solutions but plant stability, controllability, operability and safety are the main issues, when discussing plant processes and intelligent control and regulation through process automation of nonlinear processes (Koggersbøl et al. 1996; Szederkényi et al 2002). These factors have to be in order when designing process control and plants. Other keywords are traceability, audit trail, product quality and batches, and ICT solutions are an integrated and essential part of process automation.

Introducing such stringent regulations in industrial plants can be done by artificial neural network (ANN) to secure product consistency, reduced operational costs, and improved safety through a structured and well designed processes control and plant management (Cox et al. 2001 p. 302). ANN have the ability to learn from past process data and thereby model the complex non-linearities of a process and are capable of accommodating multi-input multi-output (MIMO) systems. ANN is not relying on an understanding of the processes they control, but produces a model based solely on previous behaviour of inputs and outputs from the plant. This can be understood as feed-forward control strategies (Cox et al. 2001 p. 299 and 302). ANN is hereby capable of e.g. introducing the right doze of chemicals to a process based on the characteristics of the input compared to a manual dosage by a chemist (Cox et al. 2001 p. 298-300). Furthermore, auto-associative neural networks are capable of identifying sensor failure and aid signal reconstruction has been developed and tested both in pilot plants and at larger products plants (Cox et al. 2001 p. 302).

Another approach for process automation is Manufacturing Executing Systems (MES) where ERP and other management programmes are connected through software with production and process controls. Traceability and transparency will be issues in the future for process automation solutions. Traceability provides knowledge to managers and sales departments about the current status of a specific product or batch, which is an area that is highly developed in big international companies and will in a few years be a demand from Danish companies as well (con. Jacobsen 2005; con. Nilsson 2005). Some of these software programmes include the possibility of measurements on environmental factors. These factors can focus on the processes before emissions are emitted to air or water. The factors have to be defined by the user and are optional. There is no knowledge available about how much this feature is used (con. Nilsson 2005).

Driving forces in Danish industry in process automation is regulation from EU and USA, mostly from GMP and FDA (Food and Drug Administration).

The area is highly regulated especially in the pharmaceutical and food industry (con. Jacobsen 2005; con. Nilsson 2005). Environmental issues is very seldom a issue when companies implement new ICT solution for increased process automation though a few big international companies such as MacDonalds demand that environmental issues are assessed by their suppliers (con. Nilsson 2005). Process automation in Denmark is based upon knowledge developed in other parts of the world and especially software solutions are bought from international software companies (con. Jacobsen 2005). On the other side Scandinavian companies have a sound understanding of ICT and the possibilities for increasing effectiveness so they are relatively fast to incorporate new measures (con. Nilsson 2005)

E.g. a consultancy company as Birch and Krogboe with a formulated focus on environment provides analyses of needs (technical, strategic, legislation), specifications of requirements and make the tender materials for their customers and have furthermore cooperation with Danish entrepreneurs like Picca Automation and CIRKOM and has contacts with universities environments where e.g. business PhD’s are performed (con. Jacobsen 2005).

The intelligent pump.

To day the intelligence in the electronic regulated pump is used for electronic management of the pump engine it self and hydraulic features. The intelligence is supporting a sufficient use with a decreased use of energy.

The management of pumps makes multi-pumps possible with monitoring of the systems operations and integrated alerts if any problems occur. Centralised management is possible through communication technologies so big organisations, e.g. municipalities can control all of their water treatment plants from a central command centre. The management of a system of pumps optimizes the performance of the system, lifetime and the sturdiness compared to single pumps.

It is possible through sensors to increase the functionality of the pump by integration of measurements of temperature, pressure, flow etc. In the future it might be possible to make the intelligent pump, the communicating pump, which makes measurements of the environment around the pump while pumping the liquids. The use of sensors in pumps makes it possible to gather data that could be communicated to a central command centre where data analysis could be done and used as base for changing the operation of the pump.

The vision of the intelligent pump is that it should be adaptive, one-fits all and self-optimizing.

To make the vision reality, knowledge of the rest of the installation and plant and the sensors are necessary and the advantages are suggested to be a simple installation, increased comfort and decreased use of energy.

Critical factors for the visions of the future pump solutions are the price, the size, the energy consumption and the ability to communicate with other control equipment (Intelligent workshop group2).

Management of energy in households.

Energy management in the future home will include the possibility to switch of and cut of lights and plugs, so that the stand by energy consumption is reduced. Curtains and Venetian blinds can be controlled by through remote controls or pushbuttons. Another property in the intelligent system is that one can control the energy through the Internet hence one does not have to be at the location. A key card will, when entering the home, turn on the desired and pre-programmed devices and services. Sensors will register the presence of persons and turn on lights where needed. Ventilation can also be managed intelligent so the ventilation will perform after demand e.g. after a bath.

The intelligent system will also provide easy available data about the energy consumption and inform about broken windows or insulation that is failing. The consumption data can automatically be sent to the supply company. Finally it can be connected to security systems as burglar, fire and humidity alarms if desired.

These ideas exist in single installations and equipment can connect them into one system.

Sources: (Devi 2005, Balslev A/S 2005 & Dans Bredbånd 2005)

Table 3.6. Environmental impact from ICT-based process regulation and control.

3.7 Intelligent products and applications

This section focuses on so-called “intelligent products” illustrated by an increased functionality and reduced environmental impact through the application of ICT in products and hence more intelligent products. An often applied concept regarding intelligent products is ”pervasive computing”.

”Pervasive computing” is characterized by being embedded, wearable and persistent – and hence capable of communicating with the user and other objects, where knowledge can be saved and information can be passed on. In a foresight on pervasive computing organised by the Danish Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation the technology is presented as having big developing potentials and limitations in possible applications are nearly non-existing (Ministeriet for Videnskab, Teknologi og Udvikling 2003).

As an example, sensors and control systems in households can secure that different services are delivered effectively and only when needed. Even though this development is not driven by a wish for a better environment, but often a wish for economical savings and increased capacity utilisation and functionality the development has increased the resource efficiency. (Ryan 2004) argues (although without documentation) that the improvements have been significant and there are possibilities for further improvements. The potentials are described as follows (Ryan 2004 p. 103-106):

An example of applying sensors for a so-called intelligent function could be to integrate them in different constructions and devices with the purpose of giving information if the constructions or products are starting to fail. This could enable reduced resources for maintenance, since maintenance would be done on demand and not after a planned schedule (Intelligent workshop group 2).

Radio frequency technology enables electronic contact-free identification (of individual items or transport batches), control and tracking of one or a whole range of items in the value chain and in every company in the chain. Similar to barcode technology, RFID also reads data carriers – but in stead of using optical wavelengths, RFID uses radio frequencies. Alternating electromagnetic fields are used to carry data. RFID can do this independently of the position and place these objects are kept. No line-of-sight is required between the reader and the information carrier (TAG).

The first order impacts from an increased use of pervasive computing components, devices and infrastructure are increased material and energy consumption, waste and emissions of pollutants. Its is likely that rare materials as gold get depleted and hazardous materials as heavy metals and halogenated flame retardants increasingly will be released to the environment because of the characteristics of pervasive computing products and components (Erdmann & Behrendt 2004 p.566-567):

An environmental effect of further development in pervasive computing can be an increased amount of products that have to be treated as electronic waste with the difficulties related to electronic waste in reuse and disposal mentioned above. This picture could be challenged by a change from silicon based chips to i.e. polymer-based chips and the future possibilities could include printing electric circuit based on polymer on local “inkjet printers” or polymer based electric circuits mass-produced for a certain purpose. A conductor, a semiconductor, an isolator and solvents are the ingredients for a polymer-based chip. It is not sure that the polymer based circuits will be totally free of metals. The solvents are not better or worse than those used to day in other applications (Intelligent workshop group 2). Going from wire-based to wireless transmission will have some benefits because the materials for cables are not needed. On the other hand, this change towards wireless communication implies risks of safety and security problems and electric smog. Regarding the security problems development is in progress to ensure that the security will be sufficient (Intelligent workshop group 2).

The problems with electric smog are uncertain and not well studied, though it is suspected to have some effect on the biologic organism. Some studies are made upon the impacts of non-ionizing radiation, which concludes that some biological effects are proven, but no adverse health effects are proven. An example is thermal impacts and changes in the calcium transport of the nerve system, but no damage effects are proven (Erdmann & Behrendt 2004 p.568). The effect on the human organism or other organism is somewhat uncertain, but some effect could be assumed and are determined by some factors as number of sources, emission power, frequency characteristics, time characteristics and distance to body (Erdmann & Behrendt 2004 p.568). Sensors function by a low effect compared to the effects of mobile phones, radios or other devices function. Hence it could be considered that electro smog from operating sensors could be minimal compared to other electrical equipment that surround us (Intelligent work shop group 2).

Health impact of Electromagnetic radiation.

Daily we are exposed to increased amount of electromagnetic radiation due to the increased use of electric equipments, mobile phones, surveillance equipments, wireless systems, high voltage power lines, mobile phone masts, dishes, radio transmitter etc. The knowledge about the impact on humans is sparse and research is carried out all over the world. Preliminary results show that the radiation has an effect on the human body and changes can occur in different control systems, which might have a short time effect on brain and nerve functions and in the long run it might result in severe illnesses as cancer (Kwee p.1). The results from research on electromagnetic radiation are very ambiguous and depend on the approach to the area. There is no direct documented relation between e.g. cancer and radiation from mobile phones as such, but when looking at radiation from the pool of electronic equipment that surrounds humans and the total exposure of radiation to humans in long perspective conclusions might differ (Teknologirådet 2004). Knowledge about this continuous and repeated radiation is sparse (Kwee p. 4).

There are great differences in the radiation from low-frequency and high frequency radiation. Low-frequency radiation comes from electronic equipments and high voltage power lines while the high-frequency radiation comes from radar, radio, TV, micro wave ovens, mobile phones and wireless systems. In mobile phones and wireless phones the radiation is also pulsed with a frequency, which gives the different patterns that the phone companies use when sending signals from masts to the phones. These pulses are expected to be those with the highest health impacts, because they are in the same area as human brain and organs waves and several thousand times more powerful (Kwee p. 1-2). Ionization radiation is e.g. X-ray and gamma radiation and is proven to harm cells and destroy DNA and is not interesting regarding electronic equipment. Neither the low or the high frequency radiation have enough energy to directly change cells, but they can give so much heat, which has to be removed from the area it effects, otherwise changes might occur. Areas of concern which researchers have pointed out regarding high-frequency radiation include:

- Changes in genetic material: DNA and chromosomes that might be an indicator of cancer and Alzheimer.

- Appearance of brain cancer among mobile phone users is highest among 20-29 year old in a ten year period.

- Brain scanning showing that 30 minutes radiation results in changes in blood circulation in the inner brain.

- Brain scanning showing that 10 minutes radiation results in leakiness in the blood brain barrier that protects the brain.

- Biological changes on genes, immune system, response to stress and cell growth.

(Kwee p.2)

In epidemiological research on the effect of high-frequency radiation brain cancer, breast cancer and other leukaemia at children, bad well-being and allergy to electricity are found. In biological research laboratory experiences on irradiated cells or organs from humans and animals and experiences on irradiated animals and on humans changes in cells, organs, immune system, growth, fertility, DNA, chromosome, brain function, hormone and heart function and a increased response on stress was seen (Kwee p.3). These results have not been obtained by other researchers and in general the researchers do not see a documented relation between radiation and health problems. More research has to be carried out before the relation can be excluded or documented, especially the effect in a long term perspective (Teknologirådet 2004) & (Grandjean). Other areas that have to be examined are neural and cognitive effects (Teknologirådet 2004 p.2).

Children is a risk group because their brain is not fully developed before 16 years of age and children most important brain waves have the same pulses as mobile phones use. The fact that children grow faster and their immune system is not fully developed could be important to look at in a health care perspective. Children reactions are influenced more powerfully by mobile phone radiations, and Swedish research shows that the an increased amount of cancer cases are seen within the group that started to use mobile phones at 10-20 years of age (Kwee p. 2).

The future will bring more use of mobile phones and with the new 3G technology the possible problems with pulses will increase. The 3G technology has a marked pulse radiation (Kwee) & (Teknologirådet 2004 p. 3). The future will also probably also bring a discussion about changing the limit values based on the research results and the precautionary principle. To day the limit values are defined by the ICNRIP – an international committee and it is defined in two ways: Density and the concrete specific absorptions rate (SAR) (Johansen p.3). The density shall be less than 10 W/m²and the SAR value shall be under 2 W/kg (Andersen 2004). Some of the health risks, which are possible, are supposed to come at lower radiation than the limit values but other researchers say that these research results are not well documented (Teknologirådet 2004). They argue that more research is needed to conclude if e.g. the use of mobile phones is safe or not (Johansen p.5)

In Denmark the National Board of Health has formed a research panel that shall guide them in the future about the mobile phone health risks. The panel has representatives from various subject areas such as epidemiology, geomedicine, statistic, laboratory experiments and mobile technology (Teknologirådet 2004 p. 4). The Danish government has initiated research on electromagnetic radiation in a research programme on mobile radiation at a total of 4 million Euro in 2004-2005. The research programme is supposed to identify health care risks including long time effects, impacts on young and children, needed knowledge in the area and which international competences that can be used (Elvekjær 2004 p.1)

Regarding the extreme low frequency radiation (ELF) from e.g. electrical devices and high voltage power lines there is limited evidence on humans about the carcinogenicity in relation to childhood leukaemia and inadequate evidence in humans for the carcinogenicity in relation to all other cancers as well as for the carcinogenicity of static electric or magnetic fields. Overall ELF might be carcinogenic to humans and static electric and magnetic fields but ELF fields are not classifiable as carcinogenic to humans (IARC 2002). People with epilepsy, a family history of seizure, or those using tricyclic anti-depressants, neuroleptic agents and other drug lowering seizure threshold are likely more sensitive to very low frequency fields (VLF) such as monitors (NRPB p. 67 2004)

Another problem related to electro smog could become safety problems related to electrical interference between different systems due to the increasing number of wireless systems. An example is the allocation of radio frequency 24 gigahertz to anti-collision radar in automobiles made by the EU. The thousands of such automobile radars will interference with the moisture measurements essential for the mathematical models used by weather forecasters. The consequence will be less reliable weather forecasts in the future (Ingeniøren 2005 p.6).

The second order effects of pervasive computing might include a shift from product ownership towards service, where users share products through use services. This could imply that the pool of products will decrease in the future, but it is a very uncertain conclusion (Erdmann & Behrendt 2004 p. 566-567). Another element in service-based business could be that companies selling services instead of products will have more control of the devices and equipment used in the services, and it is more likely that they will have economic incentives in securing that the operation are optimized. An example could be that a company providing heat to houses also controlled the thermostats so that they secured that an agreed temperature were provided. In this way it is not the heat that is sold but the services of comfort (Ryan 2004 p. 106-107).

3.7.1 Polymer chips and sensors as enabling technology

Polymer chips and sensors are often given a role as an enabling technology in relation to pervasive computing. The research on polymer based actuators is a relatively young discipline and dates back to early work by Kuhn and Katchalsky in the 1950’ies. Progress was obtained from 1980 and today around twenty groups in Japan, Europe, US and Australia are working in the field. In Denmark research within this field is especially done at the Danish Polymer centre based at Risø, DTU and Danfoss and has been going on since 1996 (Sommer-Larsen).

A specific group of polymers, the conjugated polymers, can be used either as semiconductors or when powerfully doped as real electric conductors. Slower than silicon based chips, but cheaper and more flexible, organic, or carbon-based electronics may promise low-cost, large-area devices such as ultra flat panel displays (Computerbits 2003). New materials of conjugated polymers have proven to be stable and easy to manufacture so that they are interesting to use as semiconductors. Those which can be used in LED’s and in area effect transistors (FET’s) as a thin film and with the properties of polymers. As polymers they are light, flexible and their properties can be manipulated to special needs. Emerging technologies like polymer actuators, polymer LED's (light emitting diodes), and polymer solar cells will be possible in the future (Danish Polymer Centre 2005). Anticipated applications are: displays, RFID-tags for product targeting, inventory control and electronic smart cards for personal security. It could control new products as roll up TV screens, electronic papers handled as conventional paper and RFID (theft protection or bar code identification in stores). Furthermore they might have a justification regarding development of sensors and sensor networks (Computerbits 2003) & (Intelligent Workshop group b).

Polymer based transistors will be significant cheaper than traditional silicon based. A site for manufacturing of silicon chips would cost approximately three billion dollars compared to a large-area integrated circuits composed of organic or plastic transistors can be produced at low cost using simple patterning techniques in ambient environments. Manufacturing of plastic transistor circuits using an inkjet-type printer is a low-waste process and offers a simple direct-write capability and high manufacturing productivity. The price of a manufacturing site will approximately cost thirty million dollars (Computerbits 2003).

The innovation of a polymer transistor is the main barrier for the development of integrated circuits and chips. The main advantages of the polymer chips will be the price and not the performance, so they will not substitute the silicon based chips in e.g. Pentium processors. New markets will be possible e.g. the “use and dispose” electronics (Nielsen 2005). Demands for polymer actuators are e.g. low price materials, linear acting, smooth movements allowing integrated feedback and control (Sommer-Larsen).

The technology is not new but the problem with low maximum speed of the polymer semi-conductor has limited the commercial interest. New research in the polymer crystalline construction influences its speed limitations. At Risø and HASYLAB in Hamburg X-rays measures for the analysis of the construction of the polymers have been developed so that a more focused research can be carried out for the development of fast polymer semiconductors (Nielsen 2005).

Application has been tested in research on alternative actuators used in robot. Actuators based on polymer materials and dielectric elastomers can be constructed on both micro and macro scales and compared to conventional actuators such as electric motors, hydraulics, pneumatics and solenoids they have promising performances. They can fulfil the requirements of driving e.g. a dextrous robotic gripper. Another polymer based solution is actuators based on polymer gels, but its performance does not fulfil the same requirements for speed etc. but it could be used for medical applications (Sommer-Larsen).

Other problems with polymer chips are their unstability with respect to temperature, but solutions using polythiophene are stable and resistant at room temperature. Companies as Lucent, IBM etc. unsuccessfully have tried to stabile polymer based solutions for many years (Computerbits 2003).

3.7.2 Cases

In the following two cases on intelligent products are presented. The development of vacuum cleaners shows that intelligent products might not be the most efficient strategy for reduction of energy consumption. The case about the intelligent automobile shows the complexity in changes of the environmental impact from the use of a product and shows that the introduction of an energy efficient component or product does not ensure reduced energy consumption. The market development for the products depends on the complex interaction between suppliers, users and the general societal development. An example that shows that political initiatives may have a direct environmental effect, if they are implemented in a way that involves several stakeholders, is the Danish energy label on refrigerators etc., which have moved the sale from very energy intensive to less energy intensive products (Intelligent workshop group 2).

The development of vacuum cleaners in Denmark.

The development of vacuum cleaners in Denmark can serve as an example of the potential improvements from the development of intelligent equipment. The vision is to develop new user operated intelligent vacuum cleaners that ensure cleaning after demand. To day the manufacturers of vacuum cleaners focus their development and their marketing mainly on as high an engine effect as possible, even though the engine effect has no direct relation to the cleaning efficiency. Furthermore the high effect is an environmental problem because of the higher energy consumption in the use phase.

One manufacturers’ vision for the future vacuum cleaners is cleaning after demand, based on a differentiated use of engine power depending on surface and degree of dirt. The engine effect needed to clean different surfaces is very varied, e.g. a very low engine power is needed to clean curtains compared to carpets. Using sensors to determine the type of surface and the degree of dirt could reduce the energy used for vacuum cleaning. When engine power is reduced the noise will also decrease. Another aspect would be the possibility to monitor the filters (maintenance), indication of a full dust bag and feed back about the cleaning degree to the user, enabling faster and sufficient cleaning. To make the vision a reality, sensors used for vacuum, airflow and optical sensing have to be developed and available at low cost.

The potential energy savings are predicted to be (at a 1200 W household vacuum cleaner):

Carpet cleaning (sufficient cleaning, shorter time) 20 %

Hard floor cleaning (power reduction, shorter time) 35 %

Light fabric (curtains and similar) 60 %

Running idle: 100 %

Estimated total savings: 30 %

The new EU energy label for vacuum cleaners is expected to contain a lot more parameters regarding energy consumption than only engine effect. Issues like functionality and environmental aspects are expected to be integrated, which could be a way to support the development of the intelligent vacuum cleaners. The consumers will have a more transparent market and have the possibility to choose from a wider perspective than only engine power and price. It should though be said that environment is not a parameter which is considered in the present product development (Intelligent workshop group 2). Compared to the energy reduction, which can be achieved from an intelligent vacuum cleaner, a reduction of the engine effect to maybe 600 Watt through an optimisation of the drawing effect, might give bigger energy savings The saving becomes even bigger engine when comparing with the effect of new vacuum cleaners of 1800 Watt and 2000 Watt and show that the savings which may obtained from intelligent products are not necessarily as big as those which can be obtained from a more fundamental change in the product concept.

The intelligent automobile.

An example of the complex relationships between the ICT-development and the environment can be illustrated by the later year’s development in design and use of automobiles. Despite of the development of more energy efficient automobile engines the use of energy for transport is constantly increasing. The automobile has been changed dramatically through the development of its internal information and control systems. Today up to 30 % of the manufacturing costs to automobiles can be for electronically parts. The reductions of the environmental effect from automobiles are based on efficiency improvements through sensors, electro-mechanical devices, actuators and operations systems. Environmental development opportunities related to information about the automobiles geographic position, atmospheric conditions, traffic conditions, distances, speed-controls etc. are seen (Ryan 2004 p. 100).

Hybrid cars with fuel engines and electrical engines or batteries build on complicated IT-based control of the combination of the different engines (Berkhout & Hertin 2001 p. 11). The control gives significant savings in resources and reduction of the use of fossil energy on approximately 70 %. It is possible to develop automobiles with a better environmental efficiency, but because of the approach to the automobile from the customers, automobile producers etc. the market penetration of these types of cars are modest. Focus is instead on automobiles with increased functionalities, which often oppose the environmental potentials (ex. the use of energy for air condition and increased weight due to different forms of new equipment). Smaller automobiles with lower fuel consumption are to some extent purchased by families as the second automobile, which often will result in increased use of energy. There is an interaction between the possibilities that a product as an automobile can offer and the consumers’ perception of their demand for transport. I.e. the availability of a car often implies an increased need for transport in response to the increased mobility. The need for transport can also increase if a family settles far away from their respective workplaces in response to increased house prices in areas near workplaces or because companies centralize their facilities by closing down a number of sites and concentrating activities at fewer sites. This shows how the development and application of products are shaped in interaction with the societal development.

3.8 Transport, logistics and mobility

The transport sector is both one of the most energy consuming sectors, and also one of the sectors having the largest potential for reduction in negative environmental impacts through use of ICT technologies.

In particular in the US, ICT has been seen as a way to change a clearly unsustainable trend in the transportation sector without imposing unpopular restrictions on transport. One of the first studies seeking to calculate the macro impact of ICT on transportation was a study prepared by Arthur D. Little in 1991. The study was very optimistic with regard to the potentials.

The executive summary begins as follows: “Can telecommunications help solve America’s transportation problems? The answer is definitely yes!” (Boghani et al. 1991) This answer is based on calculations of the savings, which can be realised through:

The calculations estimate that a 33% reduction in transport can be achieved by use of telecommuting. Later studies are far less optimistic regarding the potential savings. One reason is that second order and third order impacts are taken into account (see below). Another is that diffusion of transport reducing ICT applications not has reached the expected levels^[4].

Later studies have estimated savings at the level of 2-3%. A study of the impact from telecommuting and teleshopping in Denmark estimated the savings to be about 1% of the total person transport (Transportrådet).

This part of the analysis of ICT will try to analyse the reality of these aspects and try to reduce some of the uncertainty by introducing a couple of visions for different specific applications regarding the three areas, transport, logistrics and mobility.

There are four different dimensions of the impact on the environment from the transport sector:

While the first two points mainly relate to the demand side, points three and four (in particular four) mainly relate to the supply side.

First, one must distinguish between freight and person transport as the ICT impact is very different for these two types of transport. For each of these the ICT impact on the overall demand must be assessed. Person transport is usually measured in person kilometres and freight in ton kilometres.

ICT can affect the overall demand in various ways: Different applications of ICT may substitute the need for transport for instance by use of telework or by use of e-mail instead of surface mail. But ICT may also generate new needs for transport. This impact will most often be realised through indirect effects, for instance through the impact of ICT on globalisation.

The overall demand for transport includes a wide range of very different transport needs with regard to location, speed, frequency etc. These different needs will often demand use of different modes of transport e.g. train, private car or flight. As the environmental impact from the modes of transport is very different, it is important not to assess the ICT impact on total demand only, but also the ICT impact on the demand for each mode of transport.

ICT is widely used to increase efficiency of transport through more efficient planning. This implies that more ton kilometres (and to a certain extent more person kilometres) can be realised per kilometre driven by a truck, sailed by a ship etc. and that more transport work can be carried out without increased impact on the environment.

Finally, ICT can be used for design of more environment friendly means of transport, e.g. less polluting cars and flights as mentioned earlier in this chapter. The impact of transport on the environment is a multidimensional parameter including a large number of different environmental factors such as noise, emission of NO_x’s and CO₂ etc. However, this section will not address these parameters separately.

ICT penetrates all parts of our daily life and all parts of the production. It is therefore impossible to assess the environmental impact of every possible application of ICT, which affect our transport behaviour. A study on the ICT impact must therefore concentrate on a limited number of parameters. ICTRANS – an EU project on Impacts of ICT on transport and mobility makes a distinction between ICT applications within three different socio-economic domains (producing, living and working). Within each of these domains the most important ICT applications with regard to impact on transport are identified (table 3.7). It follows from the table that some applications affect transport behaviour within more than one socio-economic domain.

These three applications are more broadly defined than those defined in the ICTRANS study and cover in our opinion the most important aspects of the ICT impact on transport behaviour within the three socio-economic spheres.

As far as possible the analysis will include direct first order effects, as well as more indirect second and third order effects which will be presented in the following part of the report. The base for this discussion is desk research combined with a few interviews with different actors in Denmark. These actors are presenting both the areas of research and the developing business.

3.8.1 Telework

There are many different definitions of telework, some definitions take the technology as point of departure and focus on how of ICT is applied in the work process, while others see telework as a new way to organise the work (which brings telework close to the concept of distance work). Sometimes telework includes only working from home and sometimes it includes any work related use of ICT. We will in this project use a rather broad definition, which include all work related activities where ICT facilities are used to facilitate a change in location of work place.

In addition to these categories e-learning could be added as a separate category (examples of e-learning is provided in the box below), as learning also may be a working activity. But in this context, it is more convenient to look at e-learning as a sub-category of some of the above categories. There is no reason to distinguish between e-learning from home and telecommuting and e-learning from the work place is, with regard to the impact on transport behaviour, very similar to teleconferencing.

Telecommuting is the most classical concept for telework. Telework includes employees working from home using some sort of telecom facilities to communicate with their work place. Working from home is not a new concept but has taken place for centuries, but use of telecom facilities has made it a much more flexible solution, which can be used for more purposes. Telework can be either part time or full time. Looking at statistics on diffusion of telework, it is important to take the definition of telework into account. It is common to define teleworkers as employees working at least one full day a week from home. But sometimes also employees working from home occasionally or only part of the day are included.

Examples of e-learning.

A master programme in Mobile Internet Communication is offered in a co-operation between two technical universities in Denmark. The two universities are located in different parts of the country and students are spread over a wide area. Therefore the classroom teaching is limited to a few intensive seminars, while the remaining part of the teaching is mediated via the Internet. Even during the seminars e-learning is applied, as video-conferencing is used in some of the lectures. This enables students to follow the lectures from both universities, and use of lectures located in other countries. Even the final examinations are conducted by use of video-conferencing facilities connecting the two universities.

(Master in Mobile Internet Communication – mMIC 2005)

For the past ten years, the IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers) has met engineers' need for flexible and affordable materials through videos, CD-ROMs and self-study courses delivered to them by mail. The components of a typical IEEE Self-Study Course include a study guide, textbook, and final exam. These materials are structured to provide clear-cut learning objectives, self-testing opportunities and helpful information. It is expected that web-technology will be applied to provide this type of training in the future.

(IEEE 2005)

The concept of teleworking centres has in particular been used in US. Employees are allowed to do their work in a teleworking centre providing the similar facilities to those at the central office, but located in a shorter distance to the home of employees. The idea is to reduce commuting into the crowded city centres. Teleworking centres may be located in the suburbs, but telework centres has also been established in rural areas. Here the purpose is rather to foster regional development than to reduce transportation.

Teleconferencing includes on-line communication between two or more places of work. Most definitions of teleconferencing demand a video-link between the different locations. This application has so far not been very successful. The reasons for this have been that the technology has been expensive and inflexible. But this will change as broadband connections become more widespread, and it is possible to establish a video-link from the employees’ own computers. It can be argued that the use of a video-link is irrelevant for a discussion of the impact of transport behaviour. But the idea is that a video-link enables types of communication that almost entirely can substitute traditional business meetings.

Mobile teleworkers are employees, which perform most of their duties outside their office. This could be sales people such as insurance agents or employees involved in repair and maintenance or after sale services. Such mobile workers use ICT to support their work and to reduce the need for visiting their work place once or twice a day.

Self employed teleworkers are self employed, who maintain a part of their business contacts by use of one or more of the above mentioned concepts for telework. This makes it possible to serve customers far away, which in particular is of importance for self employed located in remote rural areas.

Finally off-shore teleworking should be mentioned, although the direct impact on transport behaviour might seem to be less clear cut than for the other categories. Off-shore teleworking includes out-sourcing of certain information intensive service functions to other areas. This could be routine jobs like ticketing and customer handling from call centres, but also more specialised consultancy services may be outsourced (UNITAD 2002). The relation to telework is that these types of out-sourcing necessitate intensive use of ICT for exchange of information and to become economically viable.

The direct impact of telework on transport behaviour is in both the living and the working spheres. 1) Telecommuting and 2) teleworking centres relate to the living sphere only, while 3) teleconferencing and 6) off-shore telework relate only to the working sphere. 4) Mobile teleworking and 5) self-employed teleworkers relate to the transport behaviour in both spheres.

3.8.2 Diffusion of telework

Estimations on the diffusion of telework vary considerable depending on the source. Although it must be expected that the numbers of teleworkers are growing, some of the most optimistic estimations dates back to the early 80’s. At that time it was foreseen that as much as about 50% of all office workers would be teleworking.^[5] The most recent estimates are much more modest as they shows that 13% of the work force in EU15 was engaged in some sort of telework in 2002 (compared to only 6% in 1999). Out of these 7.4% are home based. The potential seems however to be considerable larger as two thirds are interested in either occasionally or permanent to work from home according to a ECATT survey from 1999 (Hommels et al. 2002).In the 90s teleworkers were mainly belonging to the higher echelons of the labour market, but following substantial reductions in prices for establishing teleworking facilities more groups are using this opportunity. Table 3.8 shows an international distribution of different types of telework.

Table 3.8. Types of telework (in %). Base: All persons employed (N=5,901), weighted; EU averages weighted by EU15 population (SIBIS 2002).

Denmark is well above average as 21.5% are teleworking (17.7% all home based). These figures build however on a very broad definition of telework. A survey conducted by Danish Technological Institute indicates that there are very few teleworkers working a full working day from home in Denmark (Int. Schmidt 2005). In Denmark a tax incentive for companies investing in homebased PCs to the employees have had a significant impact on the number of teleworkers. Moreover telework in Denmark telework is usually considered as a basic labour right, while introduction of telework in most other European countries is introduced only if it can be justified in financial terms (SusTel 2004), this makes it difficult to make exact estimates on the number of people using telework on a regular basis. One example is TDC where it is a part of the staff policy to offer teleworking facilities (see box).

Home based teleworking seems to be surprisingly low tech (SusTel 2004). This could indicate that today growth in telework is more a question of development in management culture and organisation than a question of technical development of new communication facilities. It should however be noted that costs of ICT may be an important parameter. For instance will a decline in prices for broadband connections open up for more advanced use of ICT facilities by teleworkers, and thereby enabling more functions to be carried out from home.

One of the most important limitations for a wider user of telework is that knowledge sharing – in particular sharing of tacit knowledge – is more complicated among distant workers. Technical solutions addressing this problem may be developed. This could be done for instance through provision of high quality video communication or other tools facilitating informal communication between colleagues.

3.8.2.1 Impact on transport behaviour in the sphere of living

Table 3.9 Types of environmental impact of telework on transport behaviour in the sphere of living.

Substantial efforts have been made to quantify the transport impact. In particular the substitution effect has been calculated in a large number of studies. Most studies foresee a reduction between 1-3%. According to Mokhtarian, many of the studies tend to overestimate the impact as they do no include second order and third order effects. She estimates the effect to be less than 1% of the total travel miles (Mokhtarian et al 2002). A Danish study from 1996 estimates the potential impact in Denmark to be 0.7% (Transportrådet). This figure is confirmed by a more recent unpublished study by Danish Technological Institute (Danish Technological Institute).

However, if homeworking (working from home without use of ICT facilities is included) a much higher impact can be obtained.

The short term third order effects (also called the rebound effect) have been included in a study made as part of the EU funded SUSTEL project. This study indicate that a substantial part of the transport savings are nullified by increased transport for other purposes such as shopping and increased transport by other family members. The latter is particular relevant in one car families.

3.8.2.2 Impact on rush hour traffic and modality

Commuting is characterised by its regularity: It goes to the same destinations at the same time every day. Commuting is the major source for urban sprawl in the rush hours. Increasing use of telework from home will provide more flexibility to the commuters so they will be in a better position to avoid rush hours. Telework will therefore imply a more equal distribution of the load of person traffic during the day. This will lower problems related to crush during rush hours, but may also add to more traffic in person cars, as this may be the preferred mode of transport outside rush hours.

Telework may imply that people will accept to travel longer distances or on routes not covered by public transport services once they need to visit their work place. Both will add to less use of public transport services. This is illustrated by the fact that public transport has a market share above average in commuting related transport purposes.

3.8.2.3 Impact on transport behaviour in the sphere of working

Table 3.11. Environmental impact of telework on transport behaviour in the sphere of working.

The impact of transport behaviour in the working sphere is much less studied than the impact in the private sphere. One reason may be that with regard to personal transport commuting is seen as the major transport problem - not so much because of its dominant role in the total transport – but rather because it is the major cause to urban sprawl during rush hours. Another reason is that it is much more straightforward to calculate the substitution impact with regard to telecommuting.

Business trips are not as regular as commuting trips and will often be longer than commuting trips. It is very difficult to estimate the potential for substitution. In particular if this potential is defined as additional substitution compared to what is done today. Communication between businesses takes many forms including use of low tech solutions such as letters and phone calls, and a video conference may be a substitute for these types of communications as well as for a business trip. The above mentioned study from Arthur D. Little, is one of the few attempts to estimate the substitution effect. Here it is assumed that 13-23% of all business trips may be substituted. This includes transport related to learning activities.

Technology is important for the rate of substitution. It is clear that teleconferencing still is in its infancy. In 2000 only 12% of establishments with EU used videoconferencing (Empirica 2000). Development of teleconferencing tools creating a virtual environment providing the right facilities for exchange of information will affect the amount of business trips that may be replaced. In certain areas also implementation of ICT based system in production and management will affect the possible rate of substitution. One example is air maintenance. In this case most of the necessary information is stored in a digitized format, and maintenance and repair decisions can therefore be taken without physical presence of aviation experts. In the same way it may possible to operate robots used for medical operations.

E-learning can be implemented by use of e-mail only, but distant conduction of lectures and oral examinations demands more sophisticated ICT applications.

The transport implications of mobile teleworking are rather different from those for home based teleworking. Like home based teleworkers mobile teleworkers may avoid commuting to their work place, but they may increase transportation during working hours. A study by BT in which most teleworkers were mobile teleworkers indicates that the total transport work may increase. 18% of the respondents stated that their in work travel increased by an average of 267 miles per week, while 9% stated that it decreased by 394 miles.^[7]

3.8.2.4 Long term perspectives

Telework does not require use of advanced ICT technologies, but new technologies may open-up for new applications of telework. In the short term mobile technologies will be the most important. 3G will enable more mobile applications of data transfer and video, making it easier to connect not only from home but also from any other location. Security will also be a crucial parameter, as companies still may be hesitant to enable access to sensitive information from outside. In the long term development of high quality video communication offering virtual reality like alternatives to physical presence may be developed, among others, to facilitate informal knowledge sharing.

The long term impact will, however, also depend on how the conditions for personal transport evolve. Development of alternatives to physical presence will depend on how difficult it will be to make use of physical presence. If transport is both expensive and time consuming electronic alternatives are more likely to be developed.

3.8.3 E-business

The concept of e-business covers a wide range of business activities with very different implications for transport and the environment. E-business may include any business activity using ICT. According to this definition, all other applications of ICT analysed in this chapter could be termed as e-business activities. In this section, we will however limit ourselves to discuss the transport implications of use of ICT for external activities related to exchange of goods or information with suppliers or customers. This limitation brings us close to the concept of e-commerce. However e-commerce includes only commercial activities and most public services is therefore excluded from this definition. Even with this delimitation it is necessary to distinguish between different types of e-business. First of all one may distinguish between business to consumers, B2C, and business to business, B2B. Some also makes a distinction between businesses and governments (G2C and B2C etc.), but this distinction is not essential in a study of transport implications.

On the other hand it is important to distinguish between exchange of tangible and intangible goods, as the first category involves transportation of goods, while intangible goods may be exchanged over the telecom network without any implications for transport behaviour.

Third, we will make a distinction between applications of ICT in different phases of the business process. We will here use a simplified version of Porter’s value chain model (Porter 2001):

Teleshopping and to a certain extent e-business tend to focus on the sales process itself, but after sales and in particular before sales are equally important functions – also with regard to transport implications.

E-business affects both the working and the living spheres. B2B will mainly affect the working sphere, while B2C affects both living and working.

3.8.3.1 Business to Consumers

E-business in relation to consumers is in reality the same as teleshopping. Teleshopping is not an entirely new concept. Similar ways of distant shopping has been carried out without use of advanced ICT. Mail order has been used for decades and ordering by phone is also a well established way of shopping. However, the Internet and a wider penetration of broadband have enabled a dramatic increase in the potential for distant shopping.

More transparent markets are in particular related to before sales processes, where different products and suppliers are compared. This can be done much faster and without any person transport. This may however imply that the consumer becomes aware of suppliers located long away. If the actual purchase is done in the traditional way, the transport savings achieved through electronic scanning of the market, may therefore be nullified through more transport in the sales process.

One of the major barriers towards teleshopping has been establishment of efficient distribution systems. Teleshopping has therefore been particular successful in areas, where the goods either can be transmitted via the telecom network or where they can be delivered via the existing postal mail systems.

A study by the German Ministry for Transport lists the following effects of teleshopping on traffic (see table 3.12). The list was made through a survey of a large number of German studies. The list implies that B2C is foreseen to have a wide range of impacts on transportation, both on the overall levels of freight and person transportation, and on the structure of the transport. It is however difficult to derive any firm conclusions on whether transport will increase or be reduced, in particular if second order and third order effects are included.

B2C will result in the increase of small-part sendings to an increased number of end-customers with individual delivery-places and delivery-times.
B2C-traffic will concentrate on suburban areas.
B2C induces more courier, express and packet deliveries
B2C will lead to inhomogeneous transports in urban surroundings and at the same time to a better consolidation of long-distance traffic.
Storage concepts, distribution and collecting traffic have to be adapted.
Comeback tours of delivery vehicles will produce additional traffic.
Some shopping trips will be replaced by deliveries.
Applying logistic concepts can result in package effects (less single traffic).
In-time deliveries are always price sensible and will almost always lead to street traffic.
Trends in courier, express and packet (cep) deliveries (ongoing trends but supported by increased online-shopping).
Cep-services will require more small vehicles.
The total number of tours will increase.
Cep-traffic will mainly affect suburban areas (housing areas).
Delivery drop-offs (pick-up stations) will be asked for in suburban living areas.
Because of the increasing transport of small-parts, other transports will be substituted
Speciality transports like grocery deliveries will remain a niche market.

B2C will increase transport related to delivery of goods and change the structure towards smaller units, but this does not necessarily increase the total needs for transport. According to an American study, best-selling books by e-commerce has a smaller impact on the environment than traditional delivery (Matthews et al. 2001). Also a Swedish study indicates that e-commerce not necessarily will lead to more traffic (Fichter 2001).

In the long term a wide penetration of teleshopping may add to the ongoing centralisation of the retail market, which may imply that both shopping trips and e-shop deliveries will involve longer transport distances.

Table 3.13. Environmental impact of e-business on transport behaviour in the sphere of living.

3.8.3.2 Business to Business

Business to business applications include a number of activities, which hardly can be distinguished from activities included in the section on telework (e.g. e-learning). Use of ICT for business to business trading transactions has taken place for at least 20 years. Large enterprises have used EDI (Electronic Data Interchange) for communication with their main business partners for many years. However development of these systems were often hampered by lack of standardisation and were mainly used in closed networks confined to a limited number of regular business partners. Use of EDI demanded substantial investments and many SMEs have been reluctant to use EDI unless they were forced by major costumers such as retail chains.

The Internet and the IP-protocol has provided a low cost solution which is used for common platform for many types of electronic data transfer. This has enabled a much wider use of electronic networks for business transactions. The Internet has however, not replaced the former trading networks, which often are considered to be more secure and reliable.

Thus B2B has facilitated the ongoing trends of globalisation and out-sourcing by lowering transaction costs and make them less dependent of distance.

The transport implications of B2B applications are more complicated to assess, than the implications of B2C applications. The person transport related to business trade is not always directly related to the transaction itself, and may be difficult to distinguish from other types of business trips. Therefore the most important implications are related to how business trade is done: Use of e-business will reduce transaction costs per transaction and will therefore tend to increase the number of transactions. This will lead to changes in freight transport towards smaller batches. In addition to this it will be less costly to maintain business relations to a large number of companies and enable more use of out-sourcing.

3.9 Transport logistics

Transport logistics is usually mainly related to freight transport, but application of ICT can also be used for optimisation of person transport. Transport logistics include:

Transport planning is closely related to planning of production and storage. ICT has played a major role for instance in introduction of Just-in-time production systems. These have profound implications on transport needs in the direction of more frequent and smaller batches. The analysis is, however limited to implications of use of ICT in distribution and is not going into further details with regard to the transport implications of production technologies and strategies.

Implications for the environment of more efficient speed control are difficult to assess. In some instances speed control may even increase fuel consumption as the speed limit is set below the optimum speed with regard to fuel economy. Speed control will therefore not be discussed further.

In addition to the above mentioned issues, ICT is used for support of public policy – for instance in analysis of traffic loads by hour and location and forecasts of implications on traffic behaviour by changes in infrastructure supply (e.g. a new railroad, changes in tariffs etc.).

Finally, use of ICT is an important element in provision of road pricing as a policy tool for transport management.

3.9.1.1 Route planning

Route planning can be used to make transport more efficient. Route planning systems can if integrated with other administrative systems both reduce mileage related to driving certain routes, and contribute to a higher utilisation of loading capacity. Route planning systems are today used mainly in freight transport. The drivers for investing in such systems are cost reductions related to better utilisation of resources (vehicles, fuel and drivers). Aeromark (see box) see their major customers to be companies with a fleet of at least 20-25 vehicles. This could be freight operators but also companies with their own fleet of vehicles. It is foreseen that route planning systems will become standard within all types of trucks and vans used for freight transport. Route planning systems are also used by mobile workers e.g. in domestic services (see box).

Many person cars have already today implemented simple route planning devices such as digital maps; these are expected to become more widespread in the future.

Aeromark.

Aeromark is a technology based company in the UK and Denmark established in 1985, specialising in the provision of complete mobile voice and data solutions for corporate and SME business users throughout Europe.

The company provides complete ICT solutions for fleet management including communications infrastructure, terminals in trucks and office systems. The system enables tracking, route planning, surveillance of fuel consumption and communication with the driver (voice, SMS and data exchange). Development and system design is made in Denmark while adaptation to particular customer needs is done in the UK.

Tracing of vehicles is a standard technology provided by a large number of companies. Such systems can be bought at 350-800 € per vehicle. Aeromark is however the only providing total integrated solutions in Denmark, while there are 2-3 competitors in the UK. The Aeromark solution costs about 4,000 € per vehicle.

The major drivers for the development have been a need to optimize transport and use of utilisation of resources, and safety.

Sources: (Int. Aeromark 2005) and (Aeromark 2005)

Route Planning for Homecare services.

A number of city councils at Zeeland have together with enterprises and organisations created a company called Zeeland Care developing products for handicapped. The company has in cooperation with Center for Traffic and Transport at Technical University of Denmark developed a route planning system for home care services in order to reduce travel time for home carers.

(Int. Madsen 2005)

Route planning systems can also be used to facilitate alternatives to individual transport by car. Use of collective means of transport may benefit from tools such as ‘Rejseplanen’, which enable users better to plan their journey. More flexible types of collective transport, such as tele-busses (unscheduled busses serving customers on request), may benefit from use of ICT based systems. The same goes for car pooling and car sharing services.

In the future route planning may include ‘intelligent roads’, where route planning systems take the current load of traffic into account, and ensure optimise usage of road capacity instead of directing all cars to use the same routes.

3.9.1.2 Modality Planning

Trucks are often the preferred mode of transport for freight. One of the reasons for this is that trucks can provide end-to-end delivery, while ship, car or flight transport often needs to be combined with other modes in order to provide the same service. Multi-modal transport is often avoided because of the need for more complicated logistics compared to what is needed for single mode transport. Use of ICT for improvement of logistics may therefore facilitate use of multi-modal transport.

The ideal would be to have one single route planning model enabling use of different modes of transport like ‘Rejseplanen’ used for public transport by persons. Such a model would however be far more complicated than ‘Rejseplanen’. It would involve many more actors and it would involve use of unscheduled services. In addition to this, it would be necessary to be able to optimize with regard to a combination of a number of different parameters such as price, speed and capacity.

Center for Traffic and Transport (CTT) at Technical University of Denmark is working on solving these problems. They have received support from the Danish Højteknologifonden and the EU for doing research in this area (Int. Madsen 2005). CTT is one of the leading research centres in this area, but major work is also done in Canada. The major driver for this work is not environmental concern but rather a concern for crush on the highways and in the major cities. In particular after inclusion of the Eastern Europe into the EU, it can be foreseen that there will be even more capacity problems on the German highways, and it is therefore essential to promote use of railways for freight transport.

In addition to multi-modality planning models, multi-modality can also be facilitated by use of smaller models improving efficiency at freight terminals. Such models can make modality shifts more efficient, for instance by optimising shunting of goods wagons. Airport terminals are the most advanced in the use of such models. Maersk operates a number of harbours, but they are not yet using such systems for this purpose.

3.9.1.3 Radio Frequency Identification Systems

Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) can be used for tracking of freight items. This can improve transport logistics as it provides information on exactly where a specific item is located. Use of RFID for transport logistics was first introduced by US under the first Gulf war. Sweden is among the leading countries in this area. In Denmark, Easy Cargo has tried to introduce RFID as part of their services. Use of RFID may in particular benefit multi-modal transport, as tracking is less important for the logistics of single mode end-to-end transport systems.

3.9.1.4 Road Pricing

Road pricing is probably the ICT application within transport, which attracts most attention from the public. Road pricing provides an alternative to more traditional taxation systems and aims at influencing transport behaviour. In particular road pricing is an alternative to payment of tolls when entering highways or major city areas. By use of road pricing it becomes possible to tax exactly those types of transport that it is considered to be important to reduce. It is possible to distinguish both between different routes and different points of time. So far road pricing has been introduced only for trucks in Germany. The drivers for introducing road pricing are both environmental concern and reduction of crush.

3.9.1.5 Implications for transport behaviour

Table 3.15. Environmental impact of ICT logistics on transport behaviour in the sphere of producing.

Use of ICT for improved transport logistics will first of all improve efficiency of transport. Whether this will lead to less or more transport depends on supply and demand conditions, including costs. More efficient transport could lead to a higher demand. As the efficiency gains particular will be related to multimode and public transport, transport logistics must be expected to have a positive impact on their share of the total market. This trend can be further strengthened through introduction of road pricing. There are, however, other trends that work in the opposite direction, first of all the increasing demand for transportation of small batches.

3.10 Long term perspectives for innovation and regulation

This section summarises the analyses in the previous sections of the chapter and raises some issues in relation to the future dynamics in the interaction between ICT and environment, as how it is shaped in interaction with other aspects of societal development. Also the interaction between regulation and innovation is summarised.

The ICT sector in Denmark can be characterised by the following business and research related strengths:

All five areas show future potentials for environmental improvements, but the analyses also indicate that none of the five areas automatically imply realisation of environmental potentials. New and reinforced risks are also an expected impact of the development. An increased amount of electronic products and a more dispersed amount of sensors and other devices imply increasing problems with electronic waste. Increased use of pervasive computing might also cause health problems due to electro-smog from increased electromagnetic radiation and safety problems due to interference between different devices operating in wireless networks. There is need for research into these risks, which are not fully understood and which might be long term effects, which call upon the use of precaution as an important principle in the development and application of ICT.

The first order effect from a bigger and more disperse amount of ICT-equipment could be reduced through governmental regulation of the use of hazardous chemicals and energy and material consumption. Efficient implementation of the EU directives about waste, energy consumption and hazardous substances are important for the future development of the first order effect. Miniaturisation of products might not imply reduced resource consumption since the smaller dimensions can demand higher quality of materials, which implies more processing and maybe higher amounts of waste.

There are potentials for environmental improvements from the application of ICT-based tools for data collection and processing, product and process design, and process regulation. However, today environmental concerns are seldom the driving force for the development and application of these devices and tools. More data processing capacity enables the processing of more data and more complex calculations, but it is the aim of the application that determines whether environmental achievements are obtained. The interviews have shown one case of direct integration of environmental criteria into tools for product and process design. Other tools aim at more general resource efficiency, probably often determined by the prices for energy and materials. It was stressed at one of the project workshops that governmental regulation is the only strategy for getting environmental aspects and concerns integrated into the development paradigms.

The case about the product development paradigms for vacuum cleaners shows that the biggest reduction in energy consumption might not be achieved through the development of products with sensors and more electronic equipment (more intelligent products). In stead focus could be on a change in the market dynamics through a combination of eco-labelling and design of new product concepts with a basic focus on understanding and improving the operation and the efficiency of the existing products and the service the user obtains.

The case about the intelligent automobile shows how complex the interaction between ICT and environment can be. A product like a car is not just an energy efficient engine, but consists of a combination of a number of technologies, which implies that the final product might not be more efficient. Furthermore is the role of a more energy efficient product shaped by a lot of actors and dynamics. The governmental regulation has impact on the price of the product and the price of the energy. The societal and local dynamics in housing, employment, infrastructure etc. has a big impact on the actual purchase and use of products. Furthermore is the need for example for transport not a fixed need, but is shaped by the availability of the product, so the access to the product, in this case a car, influences the development of the need for transportation. This case shows, like the case about design and optimisation of products and processes that governmental regulation is needed in relation to all phases of innovation: the choice of research strategy, the innovation of products based on combinations of technologies and the development of the market dynamics around the products. It is not a phase-by-phase regulation that is needed, since innovation dynamics and focus also is determined by actual and expected market demand. This argument has been stressed several times at the innovation workshops in the project.

The environmental aspects of the ICT-development depend also on the development in the total stock of products. This implies that development of new products that are lighter, faster etc. do not give a reduction in the energy and material consumption if the stock or fleet of products increases or only a partly substitution takes place.

The three application areas for use of ICT in transport, which have been analysed, are considered to be those implying the most far reaching implications for transport behaviour also in the long term.

New technological achievements will create new opportunities for use of ICT either to increase efficiency or to substitute transports. However, the basic applications will be very similar to those of today.

Most teleworkers are using low-tech solutions for solving their communication needs. This could indicate that technology is not a barrier for further development of teleworking and that technological innovations only will play a minor role. But one can also argue that the reason is that more advanced technology solutions are too expensive for a teleworker and that provision of broadband access at affordable prices will promote use of more advanced types of communication, for instance video-conferencing. Use of high quality video will enable many job functions, which today demand physical presence, to be carried out as telework. Physical inspection of aircrafts and medical consultations are just a few examples of this.

High quality video may also be a solution on one of the most important barriers towards full time telework, namely knowledge sharing. Without physical presence it is difficult to develop neworks for informal exchange of information and tacit knowledge. If electronic communication is made more flexible and provides a better quality, physical presence may become less important.

Still the expected growth in telework will mainly derive from socio-economic changes: Still more people are employed in job functions suitable for telework (partly as a result of use of ICT), and new management cultures based on self-leadership become more widespread. In addition to this the average travel distance between home and work place is growing due to the development in housing costs and the centralisation of business activities to fewer and bigger plants. It is, also in the future, a limited amount of employees, who might be able to telework due to the type of work they do, like manufacturing, cleaning, social care etc.

Mobile telework will be more widespread as mobile communication solutions will offer the same facilities at comparable costs as those offered from the office. This will reduce the costs of business travels (as lost working time today constitute a major part of the costs), and may therefore cause an increase in the transport related to this purpose. This means that the first order effect is positive, but the growth in demand for communication derived from globalisation of production and a growing need for training provided internationally will work in the opposite direction.

The long term impact of e-business depends very much on how e-business will develop in the future. Also with regard to e-business, the general opinion is that the major barriers are not related to development of suitable ICT applications, but to organisational problems and development of viable business models. E-business could, if combined with telework, in theory imply a dramatic reduction in transport needs, as people could do both their work and their shopping from home. The question is whether it is likely that e-business will provide a viable alternative to daily shopping. So far transportation has been a major barrier for electronic trade with tangible goods, which are unsuitable for delivery by mail.

Improvement in transport logistics will in addition to its impact on the current traffic behaviour also be important for the success of many types of e-business. Some scenarios for the future information society include creation of an infrastructure for delivery of daily necessities. If this ever will materialise, it will have a major impact on transport behaviour and could imply a bigger amount of transportation for distribution to households. Although the three application areas studied have very different implications on transport behaviour, they will all add to situation with more flexibility in transport. This holds in particular for person transport in the socio-economic sphere of living. The regular transport related to commuting and shopping in certain hours will be replaced by more differentiated transport needs, where some people will be able to avoid rush hours and the most populated routes. This will enable a better utilisation of the transport capacity for person transport.

However, the needs for person transport will also become more dispersed. First, commuting will take place less frequent. Second, the possibilities for telework will enable more people to live in remote rural areas. This will challenge the existing infrastructure of public transport, and tend to strengthen individual transport solutions, unless ICT is used to develop new types of more flexible public transport.

The impact of ICT on person transport behaviour will to a wide extent depend on developments in transport policies. Therefore policies promoting e.g. telework will probably have only a limited impact on the overall demand for transport, if not accommodated by other types of policies aiming at reducing transport needs. Decisions regarding the choice between electronic communication and person transport depend on the effectiveness of the two alternative forms of communication as well as their price. So far the costs of transportations have not been high enough to make reductions in transport a key parameter in development of telework or e-business. Most teleworking is implemented for reasons of flexibility and time saving rather than in order to reduce the amount of transport. This is illustrated by the fact that teleworkers seldom work at home full working days.

With regard to freight transport the situation is a bit different, as improved logistics will enable more flexibility. On the other hand will e-business, in combination with just-in-time production, lead to more transport of small batches with high urgency. Also in this case, transport policy is crucial for the net impact on transport behaviour. Reductions in transport are only happening if it leads to either reductions in the total costs or it increases flexibility.

Transport policy does not only play a role for the immediate ICT impact on transport behaviour, but is also important for the direction of new technological innovations. As long as fast transport is available at cheap prices, private companies do not have any incentive to develop or implement transport-reducing technologies if not combined with other benefits.

ICT does however also provide new policy tools within the areas of transports, first of all road pricing. Road pricing enables the design of economic incentives for reduction of transport in order to address exactly those types of transports where reductions are most urgently needed.

Footnotes

^[4] Back in the 80’s it was expected that as many as 40% of the employees could work as teleworkers (Korte 1988)

^[5] An overview of estimations of numbers or percentage of teleworkers is provided in Anique Hommels (et al. 2002)