Economic, social and technological drivers of environmental change

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Structural effects on the environment are likely in general to be positive, as comprehensive liberalisation of trade and investment improves resource efficiency.

The effects of ageing populations on the environment are not well understood.

The physical expansion of urban areas leads to increasing pressure of the environment.

The environmental goods and services market is projected to grow rapidly in the future, although it is currently still small.

Technology effects of globalisation on the environment are generally expected to be positive or neutral, but may be negative in some circumstances.

Scale effects of economic growth on the environment, spurred by further globalisation are like to be on balance negative.

Environmental impacts from GDP growth depend on changes in the structure of the economy, technologies employed, environmental policies, and local environmental conditions.

Growing environmental pressures from consumption include increased use of natural resources, pollution associated with increased energy and transport use, and waste generation.

The environmental effects of current consumption patterns remain a peripheral issue in most OECD countries, treated in an ad-hoc fashion.

Consumers in OECD countries are concerned about environmentally quality, but their concern has often not been translated into behavioural changes.

Potential biotechnology advances in agriculture have raised social, economic, and political questions related to their potential health and environmental impacts.

Primary sectors and natural resources

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Although environmentally friendly agricultural systems still represents a small share of total agricultural production, they are increasingly used in the OECD countries.

Although water charges in OECD countries have been increasing, in most cases the full costs of providing water services are still not covered by water prices.

Agricultural intensification has led to a growing use of energy, water and agrochemicals, increased soil erosion, and reduced habitat provision in OECD countries.

Eco-labels and agricultural certification schemes are increasingly used in OECD countries to inform consumer food choices.

While aquaculture can help alleviate stress on capture fisheries from increased demand for fish, it can also have negative impacts on local ecosystems.

Agrochemicals run-off is one the main contributors to groundwater pollution in OECD countries, and is expected to worsen to 2020.

Most OECD households are connected to basic sewage treatment systems and more advanced wastewater treatment processes are increasingly used.

New technologies have the potential to help improve fisheries management, but also to increase the rate of unsustainable fish harvests.

Subsidies to agriculture in OECD countries are very large, and the majority are tied to potentially environmentally damaging production or inputs.

OECD countries are increasingly managing their water resources on a river basin or catchment basis.

The share of wood produced in intensive plantation is expected to increase in OECD regions to 2020.

By 2020, over one-quarter of a billion people worldwide are expected to be living under high water stress.

Timber is increasingly being harvested from second growth and planted forests, reducing pressures on natural old growth forests.

Forest quality and biodiversity habitat in OECD countries may decrease to 2020 because of more intensive forestry practices.

The pollution of OECD groundwater resources - particular from agrochemicals run-off - is expected to worsen to 2020.

OECD countries have been expanding the area of natural forest that is protected in national parks or reserves.

Fish catch from capture fisheries is likely to remain stable, or possible decrease, to 2020 because of poor management of fish stocks.

Protected natural areas are growing both in number and size in OECD countries.

A number of common fish species are threatened with commercial extinction

Tropical deforestation is expected to continue at alarming rates over the next few decades.

Perverse incentives, including subsidies to some sectors, continue to encourage environmentally damaging activities resulting in biodiversity loss in OECD countries.

Energy, climate change, transport and air quality

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OECD countries are achieving some de-coupling of energy from economic growth.

Economic analyses indicate that the costs of meeting Kyoto targets for Annex I countries would be low, though adjustments costs may be significant in some sectors.

Energy consumption in OECD countries and worldwide is projected to continue to increase to 2020.

Changes in land use and forestry are estimated to be a net CO₂ sink for most OECD countries.

Barriers to the widespread use of more environmentally friendly transport technologies and good practices exist across OECD countries.

Fuel combustion remains the major source of greenhouse gas emissions and many air pollutants.

Significant reductions in emissions of SO_x, CO and lead have been achieved in OECD countries.

Despite progress in reducing air pollution emissions in OECD countries, serious air quality and related human health problems persist.

Most subsidies to energy production continue to support the more environmentally damaging fuel sources.

Emissions of CO₂ in OECD countries are projected to increase by app. 33% from 1995 to 2020.

Meeting Kyoto targets will require reducing greenhouse gas emissions in OECD countries by roughly 20% to 40% in 2020 compared with Reference Scenario projections.

Projected emissions of greenhouse gases will lead to increases in global mean temperature and a rise in sea levels.

The contribution of the transport sectors to the total CO₂ emissions in OECD countries is projected to increase from app. 20% in 1995 to 30% in 2020.

Noise levels seriously affecting human health are still recorded in many OECD countries.

Emissions of fine and ultra-fine particulate matter have been increasing in OECD countries, with significant negative impacts on human health in urban sites.

High emission levels of NO_x and volatile organic compounds remain a concern in OECD countries due to their contribution to the formation of photochemical smog.

Households, selected industries and waste

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Household demand for freshwater has stabilised or declined in a number of OECD countries.

Household energy demands is likely to continue to rise in OECD countries to 2020, but there is a large potential for further energy efficiency gains.

Household private car use and air travel will increase to 2020, contributing strongly to growing emissions of greenhouse gases.

Some OECD governments are using information instruments in combination with other measures to stimulate environmentally friendly consumer decisions.

CO₂ and SO_x emissions from the steel industry are expected to increase substantially to 2020, but introduction of new technologies could offset this increase.

There is a lack of adequate safety information about the great majority of chemicals on the market.

The use of recovered paper in the pulp and paper industry is increasingly rapidly.

The steel industry has made progress in increasing its efficiency of resource and energy use, but still uses large amounts of energy, water, and iron ore.

Municipal waste generation in OECD regions is projected to grow by 43% from 1995 to 2020.

The emission of some pollutants to the environment from the chemicals industry is descreasing.

Steel production has negative impacts on human health, but these effects have been reduced in recent years.

Soil contamination at existing waste dumping sites is expected to continue, affecting land use and ground water quality.

Tremendous progress has been made in OECD countries in phasing out the production and consumption of ozone depleting substances.

CO₂ and SO_x emissions from the pulp and paper industry are expected to increase substantially to 2020, but introduction of new production technologies could offset this increase.

Hazardous waste generation is projected to increase in OECD countries, but management of this kind of waste is expected to continue to improve.

Selected cross-cutting issues

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OECD countries have made progress in providing environmental information to the public.

Environmental damage is responsible for 2-6% of the total burden of diseases in OECD countries.

The effects on human health of the widespread release of chemicals to the environment may worsen in OECD countries in the future.

Many OECD countries are making their environment-related decision-making more open and transparent.

Limited information is available on how environmental quality and access to environmental resources is spread across different communities in OECD countries.

Analysis of the distributive effects of environmental policies in OECD countries remains scant.

There is still uncertainty about the evidence of double dividend from environmental taxes. Ex post evaluations are needed.

Despite increases in resource use efficiency, total consumption of resources is continuing to increase in OECD countries.

The net effects of resource use of the rapid development of many new technologies - including information and communication technologies and modern biotechnology - are unclear.