THE BICHEL COMMITTEE
8. Conclusions and recommendations of the Committee8.1 Background and prerequisites of the total or partial
phasing out of pesticide 8.1 Background and prerequisites of the total or partial phasing out of pesticide Pesticides action plan Denmark has had a pesticides action plan since 1986. Its goals are to increase the stringency of the approval scheme and the general reduction of the use of pesticides by 50% within a 10-year period. The action plan's goal of tightening the approval scheme had been achieved by the end of this period. And the pesticides most harmful to health and the environment had been banned. The general reduction of pesticide use had only been attained in part, as the sale of active ingredients had dropped by 40%, whereas treatment frequencies had dropped by only a few per cent, before correction was applied for changes in crop rotation during the period. The increased stringency of the approval scheme has had the effect of significantly reducing the number of pesticides, a considerable number of which have either been found in ground water or have been suspected of being able to pollute ground water. Treatment frequency The treatment frequency is an expression of the average number of times farming land can be treated with the normal dose, on the basis of the quantities sold. The average treatment frequency for 1981-1985 (i.e., 2.67) has been used as the reference for the first pesticides action plan's reduction goal. The treatment frequency is considered the best indicator of environmental effects. Some crops are sprayed more than others, which means that the crop-rotation regime influences pesticide consumption and, thus, treatment frequency. A numerical expression can be obtained for how changes in crop rotation (from the reference period (1981-1985) until today) have affected treatment frequency, by comparing the reference period's treatment frequencies in the individual crops with the areas covered by those crops in a given year. This crop-rotation-corrected treatment frequency is obtained by multiplying the relevant acreage for the relevant crops in each individual year (e.g., 1997) by the treatment frequencies of the reference period. Calculation of how changes in crop rotation have affected the treatment frequency yields a value for 1997 of 3.27, which means that, with crop rotation as in 1997 and with treatment frequencies in the individual crops as in 1981-1985, the treatment frequency would have been 3.27, all other things being equal. For the sake of comparison, the treatment frequency in 1997 was 2.45, which is 25% lower than the value of 3.27. Appointment of the Bichel Committee At the end of this period, and against the background of the increasing pollution of ground water, the Folketing requested the Minister of Environment and Energy to establish a committee, to estimate the overall consequences of phasing out the use of pesticides. A committee was duly appointed to undertake this task. The Chemicals Report In 1997, the Minister of Environment and Energy prepared an account of forthcoming initiatives in the chemicals area (the "Chemicals Report"). It was apparent from this report that it did not include the use of chemical substances as pesticides, since this area was considered to present its own complex set of problems. The Committee has not included this in its work. New chemicals strategy At the beginning of 1999, the Minister of Environment and Energy sent the first proposal for a chemicals strategy for hearings. This proposal contains a number of initiatives aimed at reducing the impact of chemicals on the environment and health. Agreement on phase-out in the public sector The Minister of Environment and Energy has entered into an agreement with the local-council organisations, on working to phase out the use of chemical pesticides on public land before the year 2003. Scenarios The Committee has assessed a number of scenarios for the total or partial phasing out of pesticides within another 10-year period, and for restructuring for organic farming within 30 years. These scenarios are the following:
Input information In this context, the Committee has availed itself of the considerable body of knowledge available on agricultural production, the effects of pesticide use and the economic conditions of farming and society, although it has not included the costs of restructuring, which would depend on the time horizon. Much expertise has been gathered in many areas, on the interaction between crops and pests. Many areas lack, however, information for guidelines, which otherwise make it possible for farmers to prevent the problems of pests and to designate the situations that would cause significant yield reductions. Technological development The Committee's estimates and calculations have not taken technological developments in consideration. However, the utilisation of appropriate alternative techniques for preventing pests and reducing pest levels did not constitute a point of departure in the phase-out scenarios. Treatment frequency not corrected for set-aside and restructuring for organic farming In the above scenarios, the treatment frequency was estimated for the sprayed fields, and no correction has therefore been made for changes in set-aside areas or for restructuring for organic farming. Market gardening, fruit growing and forestry The estimates for the areas of market gardening, fruit growing and forestry were based on slender foundations, which made it difficult to describe the consequences of a phase-out. No estimate was made for partial phase-out in these areas. Expertise on the consequences for health and the environment Over and above this, the Committee has taken advantage of the expertise that has been attained in recent years, from a large number of research projects on the environmental and health-related effects of pesticide use. There are, however, gaps in this expertise, as a number of relationships between the toxic properties of pesticides and their effects on flora and fauna have not been quantified at the time of writing. There are also gaps in our knowledge of effects on health and the working environment. Economic assumptions In connection with the socioeconomic calculations, a number of "all-other-things-being-equal" assumptions were defined, including an unchanged EU agricultural policy. Any change in this policy would have major consequences for the estimated results. The economic estimates were based on a 10-year time horizon, for the pesticide scenarios, and 30 years, for the organic scenarios. The economic consequences for agriculture and the individual groups of farmers were not considered. Similarly, the costs of restructuring in the transitional period were also ignored. To sustain production of domestic animals, exports and employment in the foodstuffs industry, access was retained to imports of grain and feed that have been treated with pesticides. When estimating the socioeconomic consequences, it was necessary to include the socioeconomic costs necessitated by pesticide use, and the removal of pesticides from drinking water has also been valued. In the organic scenario, the release of CO2 and leaching of nitrates were also valued. Valuation was not possible for most of the environmental and health-related effects. Legislation An assessment of the feasibility of a Danish pesticide phase-out was carried out against the background of EU legislation and WTO legislation. 8.2 Environmental and health-related consequences of pesticide use and proportionality with respect to other chemical substances used in farming Pesticides in many places In some places, pesticides have been detected in ground water, watercourses, surface water, drain water, soil water and rainwater. Pesticide residues have also been detected in foodstuffs. Effects on wild plants Farmland constitutes 62% of the total area of Denmark. In comparison to other countries, the degree of utilisation for cultivation is high in Denmark. Within the last 25 years, the number of wild-plant species, and their frequencies of occurrence, in Danish fields have been halved. The primary reason for this decline is the use of weed killers and changed cultivation practices. The use of pesticides is associated with risks of declining plant and animal populations, changed biodiversity, changes in cultivation media and the natural regulation of pests, as well as effects on food chains and indirect effects, in cultivated land and the adjoining biotopes. In the broader view, it is not the individual field and its potential loss of wild plants that is the problem, but rather the total national effects on the characteristic flora of arable land, where the large distances between small, uncultivated biotopes, such as ponds, fences, ditches and hedges, reduce the propagation and recolonisation of species and increase the risk of local extinction. Effects on the working environment We consider the risk of the acute effects of pesticides to be significantly lower today than for only 10 years ago, as the most acutely toxic products are no longer permitted. If the protective devices and clothing (personal protective equipment) recommended with consideration for classification and labelling for the effects known today are used, there is a minor risk of chronic harm to the health. There is, however, uncertainty as to the extent to which protective equipment is used in practice. The long-term effects of exposure to the pesticides that entail a significant risk of harm cannot be determined with any certainty under Danish conditions. The Committee considers, however, that there could be a risk of exposure of employees in greenhouses and in the production of fruit and vegetables, where the treatment frequency is high. Intake of foodstuffs containing pesticides The predominant sources of the population's pesticide burden is the intake of berries, fruit and vegetables (84%) and, to some extent, grain and grain products (15%), whereas the intake of drinking water, animal foodstuffs and fish (<1%) lack significance to the total impact. The overall average burden from foodstuffs has been calculated as 200 µg pesticide/day, extending from very low to 600 µg pesticide/day. 60% of this intake comes from foreign products. This burden amounts to about 1% of the acceptable daily intake. It is not possible to prove on the basis of epidemiological studies that pesticides are harmful to the health in the quantities to which the general population is exposed, e.g., through food. On the other hand, it will never be possible to prove scientifically that a chemical substance, including a pesticide, could not cause a health risk. Use of other chemicals in farming The Committee has undertaken a qualitative, comparative estimate of the overall harmful influences on health and the environment caused by the use of pesticides, in comparison to the use of other chemicals, which are used in farming or which are inadvertently spread to cultivated land. Heavy metals It is believed that the heavy metals cadmium, lead and mercury present a bigger health problem than pesticides, whereas they are less of a problem environmentally. Substances alien to the environment The pollution of cultivated land and crops by substances alien to the environment is small, in comparison to that of pesticides. Organic ecotoxins do not constitute a problem on cultivated land. The frequent use of sludge can cause the total quantity of alien substances to attain the same order of magnitude as that of pesticides. Veterinary medicines and growth regulators The use of veterinary medicines and growth regulators (phasing out antibiotic growth regulators is planned during 1999) entails a risk of the emergence of resistant micro-organisms, and the possibility that cultivated land will be affected by the presence of livestock manure has not yet been sufficiently illuminated to permit the assessment of these medicines in proportionality to pesticides. Naturally-occurring substances A number of naturally-occurring substances are used to a limited extent as pesticides. They are relatively easily degradable, but there is in principle no difference between them and the synthetic pesticides. In comparison to the naturally-occurring substances, the synthetic pesticides have a greater potential for effects harmful to the environment. Naturally-occurring plant substances The Committee finds that certain naturally-occurring plant substances can constitute a risk, and they should be subjected to risk assessment along the lines of pesticide risk assessments. Danish pesticide use in comparison to that of other countries Danish pesticide use is low, in comparison to that of many of our southern and western neighbours. This could be due to the farming community's efforts to reduce consumption and cultivation intensity, differences in the crops cultivated, climatic conditions and a significant variation in the pressures of pests and diseases. Recommendations The Committee recommends that:
8.3 Proposals for changing the present approval scheme and other measures for ensuring the safety of health and the environment Pesticides action plan The 1986 pesticides action plan meant that the Danish approval scheme was to be tightened and that agriculture was to be steered towards less harmful pesticides. At the end of the 10-year period of the action plan, 213 active ingredients had been reassessed. Of these, renewal applications were not made for 105, 30 were banned or strictly regulated, while 78 were approved. The Committee has not undertaken a systematic review of the Danish approval scheme, but it proposes certain possibilities for changing the scheme, as added security for health and the environment. Other measures that do not affect the approval scheme are also proposed. Changes to the approval scheme One prerequisite for the approval of a pesticide is that it be degradable in the environment and be metabolised to water, carbon dioxide and salts or to harmless organic compounds, but it is often only possible to account for a fraction of the applied quantities of pesticide, if degradation is ignored. Thus, we lack information on the total mass streams and the greatest flows, including evaporation and spray drift, as well as specific systematic monitoring in the environment of degradation and metabolisation as a part of the overall mass-stream analyses. It is, thus, impossible to give a real and complete description of the fate of pesticides in relation to the impact on health and the environment. Auxiliary substances When manufacturing pesticides, many auxiliary chemicals are added, some of which are more acutely toxic than the active ingredients. These auxiliary substances are not covered by the approval scheme to the same extent as the active ingredients of pesticides. They are within the scope of our general chemicals regulation and the products are covered by Directive 91/414/EEC. Consideration should be given to extending the approval scheme, so that the requirements set on auxiliary substances approach the requirements set on the active ingredients. In this context, a total ban on carcinogenic auxiliary substances could be considered. List of potentially leachable pesticides The Committee has drafted a list of pesticides that are approved today, but that are potentially leachable. These substances should be assessed more thoroughly to protect the ground water. This list could also be included in recommendations on substitution by substances less dangerous in usage situations. Alternative assessment An alternative assessment could be considered to safeguard ground water, so that new pesticides are assessed in comparison to the pesticides on the list and to alternative, non-chemical methods. Substances placed at the critical end of the list by this procedure, or which could be replaced by suitable, alternative, non-chemical methods, should not be approved. Since these alternative methods can also cause harm to health or the environment, their suitability should be assessed from the health and environmental standpoints, as is the case for the chemical methods. Assessment of total impact of chemicals The fact that many different chemical substances are ingested has prompted the question of whether an assessment of the total chemical load, including pesticides, should be carried out, especially for the risk groups. The detection of new effects, which have not previously been studied or to which weight has not been attached, such as effects on the endocrine system, illustrate the importance of constant development in research. An improvement of the animal tests currently performed for the approval of pesticides is necessary for the identification of endocrine disrupters. Other measures Pesticides have been found to reach aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems through drift and runoff. This could be reduced by the introduction of permanent no-spray zones which, as buffer zones, would contribute to the protection of watercourses, lakes and ponds, as well as well-preserved vegetation in small biotopes and natural areas, where such still occur. Another option would be to extend the requirements on distance to include lakes and watercourses. Exposure of employees As a result of the intense use of pesticides in nurseries and in the production of fruit, vegetables and berries, employees are expected to suffer high exposure to pesticides. Leaching of pesticides to ground water The cessation or reduction of pesticide use would eliminate or reduce the risk of pesticides leaching down to ground water in parts of the areas where there is special interest in drinking water, or catchment areas for public water supplies that are particularly sensitive to pollution by pesticides. Washing and filling of spraying equipment The washing and filling of spraying equipment is a significant source of environmental pollution. This could be reduced by drafting a set of rules for how spraying equipment should be washed and filled. Integrated control Directive 91/414/EEC contains a provision to the effect that, in connection with the approval of pesticides, a certain degree of consideration must be given to the principles of good plant protection practice and integrated control. The application of these principles could contribute to reducing pesticide use. The concept of "integrated control" has not been defined in greater detail in the context of the EU. Recommendations The Committee recommends that Denmark work to amend the EU rules and, where it is possible to implement a change, so that:
In addition, the Committee must recommend that Denmark work for the establishment of EU principles for integrated control in individual crops. Finally, the Committee must recommend that Denmark:
8.4 Ranking of pesticides Leaching to ground water The current simple models do not allow us to rank pesticides unambiguously, according to their abilities to leach down to ground water. However, four simple models make it possible to draft a gross list, which includes the 35 approved active ingredients that are assumed to present the greatest risk of leaching to ground water. Effects on the terrestrial environment It is not possible to indicate a method of ranking for the terrestrial environment, as indirect effects and combinations of many pesticides play the greatest part. However, the treatment frequency can be used as a measure of the load imposed, as it can be used as a simple indicator for direct effects on the target organisms and for the indirect impact on the ecosystem. Effects on the aquatic environment Where the aquatic environment is concerned, the existing administrative distance requirements can be used for ranking or grouping pesticides. Foodstuffs In the area of foodstuffs, the ratio of the acceptable daily intake of the individual active ingredient to the actual intake can be used as a basis for ranking. It is not, however, possible to assemble the above rankings into an index. Recommendation The Committee recommends that the establishment of an index for estimating impact on health and the environment await the international activities that have been started in the EU and OECD. 8.5 Precautionary principle Background of the precautionary principle The lack of knowledge of the effects of pesticides on health and the environment has brought about a discussion on the application of the precautionary principle to the field of pesticides. The background for applying the precautionary principle could be the uncertainty that is always associated with the data on which decisions are based - from the standpoints of generalisations drawn from limited studies of the properties of pesticides, and of the impacts on and reactions of entire environments and ecosystems and all the species and populations that must be protected. The precautionary principle must also allow for the risk associated with errors, and no-one wants any errors to affect the future significantly. The precautionary principle could also express a desire to offer still better protection to exposed groups, such as children. The 0.1 µg/l limit on the content of pesticide residues in drinking water is, thus, an expression of the precautionary principle, as quantities of this magnitude have no toxicological significance to humans. Definition of the precautionary principle Depending of the professional environment, there are many different ways of applying the precautionary principle. This is clarified in the reports of the sub-committees. It also means that there is no single, specific definition of the precautionary principle and the ways in which it is expressed. The Committee has therefore not undertaken an actual definition of the precautionary principle. This also means that the Committee does not wish to propose ways in which the precautionary principle can be put into operation in the context of pesticides. Example of the development of guidelines The Committee has noted an example in which work is in progress at the European level on the specification of guidelines for the application of the precautionary principle. In this context, six principles for applying the precautionary principle were proposed: 1. any application of the precautionary principle must begin with an objective risk assessment, which determines the degree of scientific uncertainty at each step; 2. when the results of the risk assessment are available, all relevant parties must participate in the decision on the application of the different options for action that can be proposed. This process must be as open as possible; 3. the precautions based on application of the precautionary principle must be proportional to the risk that is to be limited or eliminated; 4. the precautions must also include a cost/benefit analysis (advantages/disadvantages) of reducing the risk to a level acceptable to all parties involved; 5. the precautions must assign responsibility for obtaining the scientific material necessary to a complete risk assessment; 6. the precautions must always be provisional, as they must await the results of the scientific research performed to obtain the scientific data for the subsequent renewed risk assessment. The work is only a draft and must be seen as part of the process in which many players in the field try to advance their views on how to put the principle into operation. This draft is based on the risk assessment and any of its relevant uncertainties. It is, thus, a techno-scientific asset. The sub-committees' appraisal of the precautionary principle The sub-committees have included the greater part of the above principles in their discussions. The sub-committee on environment and health has discussed the various scientific uncertainties, whereas the sub-committee on production, economics and employment has discussed the feasibility of carrying out cost/benefit analyses. Finally, the sub-committee has carried out an assessment of the legal aspects in the EU of applying the precautionary principle. We should emphasise the fact that application of the precautionary principle takes place in interaction between the following parties: 1. scientific expertise, which must draw the line for what is foreseeable and isolate that which cannot be clarified; 2. an administrative effort, which must adopt a stance on what can be put into operation; 3. a political opinion, i.e., non-expert, which, with consideration for the population, must make a decision on the basis of its confidence in expert knowledge and of ethical and political considerations. 8.6 Alternative methods of controlling and preventing pests The Committee has appraised a number of methods of controlling pests, which would be relevant when minimising losses caused by pests in a total or partial pesticides phase-out. A number of alternative control methods are already available today. Their penetration will depend on their competitiveness with respect to chemical pesticides, from the standpoints of time, effect and economy. Crop-rotation regimes The crop-rotation regime chosen and the crops cultivated are highly significant to the levels of diseases, weeds and pests. Thus, the level of weeds, in particular, can generally be reduced by a varied, many-sided regime, which switches between spring and winter crops, monocotyledonous and dicotyledonous crops, and annual and perennial crops. When planning a regime, it is generally important to give consideration to crop-rotation diseases and to ensure that a sufficient number of years elapses, e.g., between crops of potatoes, rape and beets. The choice of crops in farming is, however, also governed by economic considerations, with the effect that crops cannot be selected merely because they are correct from the standpoint of crop rotation. The Committee concludes that crop-rotation regimes and crops are of major significance to disease, weed and pest levels, which can be used to advantage when reducing pesticide consumption. It also means, e.g., that crop-rotation regimes must be adjusted towards fewer winter cereals. Technical factors Several technical factors could be adjusted in present cultivation systems, such as the sowing time, fertilisation and quantities sown, whereby the problems presented by pests could be reduced. Resistant varieties Resistant varieties have great potential for reducing expected losses resulting from disease. This could be used to advantage when reducing pesticide consumption. We do not, however, consider it possible to resolve all problems simultaneously within a 10-year period. Taking advantage of this potential would also demand an increased Danish effort and an interest on the part of foreign breeding industries in developing these varieties. The strategic use of resistance offers significant prospects for reducing losses resulting from fungal diseases, e.g., by increased mixing of varieties. A combination of dressing the first generations, linked to demand analyses of subsequent seed consignments, is one option for reducing pesticide consumption. This should be studied more closely in grain. There are no fully-developed alternative methods of controlling seed-born diseases today, and continued development is needed before it will be possible to appraise the extent to which these methods could immediately replace the chemical methods. Pest control There is only very limited knowledge of Danish varieties' insect resistance, and of whether or not it could be used to reduce pesticide consumption. Utilisation of the biological control of pests in fields is limited today and, thus, at the time of writing, does not exist as a realistic alternative to chemical control. Weed control A total or partial pesticide phase-out would necessitate a combination of prevention and control by technical and mechanical methods, in order to attain a sufficient degree of weed control. Experimental results have shown that there are potential options for mechanical weed control in almost all crops. Under most conditions of cultivating potatoes and rape, mechanical methods can compete with chemical methods today. Mechanical methods are dearer in other crops and, because of the need for repeated treatment, they are generally expected to consume more energy. The effects of mechanical weed control can present problems in certain situations, such as special soil types, unstable weather conditions, poor crop establishment or during the proliferation of certain weed species. Couch grass can be controlled without the use of herbicides in most areas. Mechanical harrowing after harvesting (as a substitute for treatment with glyphosate every four years) is necessary every year in grain-rich crop-rotation regimes. This significant soil-treatment effort can make the establishment of late crops and winter cereals difficult. Effects on areas close to fields Provided that mechanical weeding is very effective, the quantity of weeds will not differ significantly from that found in fields treated with pesticides, so that the environmental gain for the flora of the fields themselves is absent. On the other hand, mechanical weeding could have great significance to small biotopes and areas close to fields, as they would no longer be affected by spray drift. The mechanical treatment of grass in the autumn is considered to have a detrimental side-effect, in the form of nitrogen washing out in increased quantities in the winter half of the year. In the spring, mechanical weed control would accelerate the nitrogen cycle, which has a beneficial effect on the crops. Mechanical weed control can also affect soil fauna, including birds than nest on the ground. Growth regulation Chemical regulation is used in about 10% of winter cereals, especially in rye. It is also used to a minor extent in seed grass and ornamental plants. Considered as the quantity of active ingredient, about 1/3 is used in the market-gardening sector (ornamental plants) and 2/3 of the quantity, in grain and seed grass. There are good prospects for applying alternative methods in winter wheat, to minimise the risk of lodged seed. The risk is, thus, small when cultivating varieties of good stalk stiffness and reduced plant counts. There are no rye varieties that can completely eliminate the risk of lodged seed, although some varieties can contribute to reducing this risk. The use of such varieties offers potential for reducing the consumption of growth-regulator products. The use of alternative methods of growth regulation in seed grass has only been clarified to a limited extent. A combination of alternative methods and growth-regulator products is used in pot-plant cultivation. No methods of replacing chemical growth regulators are immediately available for pot plants. Research is in progress on certain alternatives, such as reduced fertilisation with phosphorus. There is a need for a significant research effort, to determine whether or not alternative methods can be applied to the wide variety of pot-plant cultures. Biological control Biological methods (which include useful organisms and microbiological products) of pest control have great potential in production in greenhouses, where they are already used to a significant extent in vegetable production, whereas there is still unutilised potential when producing ornamental plants in greenhouses. Effective methods for controlling diseases biologically in greenhouses are still limited. In the short term, biological disease control is considered to hold potential against seed-born diseases and fungi that damage germinating sprouts, especially in spring-sown cereals. The use of microbiological methods entails a risk of industrial injuries, in the form of allergies or bronchial diseases. Decision support systems Decision support systems are considered to be an important tool for consultants and farmers, when presenting research results in the area of pesticides. We consider that it would be possible to attain a 20-50% reduction of the treatment frequency (as compared to what is possible today) in many crops, by combining decision support systems, chemical and non-chemical methods. Spraying techniques In comparison to the spraying technique in use today, the introduction of new spray types only offers limited potential for reducing the quantities of pesticide used. Exceptions to this are, however, techniques for positional treatment which, one day could offer the possibility of varied treatment patterns at the field level with the aid of computerised determination of geographical position, i.e., GPS (Global Positioning System) technology. There are good prospects for reducing spray drift by the use of new nozzles and screening techniques. Some of these new nozzles increase capacity in comparison to earlier spray types, which also improves the prospects of carrying out spraying under acceptable weather conditions. Point-source pollution Methods are under development (biobed) by which the farmer can minimise the point-source pollution of ground water, own wells and borings, and watercourses, in connection with the filling, washing and cleaning of sprays. Potential of GMOs Based on the present body of knowledge, we do not consider it possible to forecast the extent to which genetically-modified plants will affect pesticide consumption on Danish farms over a forthcoming 10-year period. The introduction of genetically-modified, herbicide-tolerant beet varieties is expected to lead to a significant reduction in the quantities of herbicides used, i.e., of about 1-2 kg active ingredient/ha, which corresponds to a 50% reduction, in comparison to present consumption. Problems of GMOs Genetically-modified plants offer an opportunity for reducing the use of pesticides and, therefore, the exposure of the environment and people. Some of these crops could, however, cause inadvertent propagation and concomitant damage to the environment. Moreover, insect-resistant plants could affect species other than pests. Such effects also occur through the use of spray products. However, the potential effects of insect-resistant plants differ from those of spray products by virtue of the fact that they can occur throughout the growing season. It is to be expected, however, that a number of non-target organisms would be less affected by genetically-modified plants than by the conventional use of spray products. New pesticides New pesticides are constantly being developed to replace the products now in use, and new products are also being developed that offer new control options, for instance, for take-all disease. These products are generally used in smaller quantities than has previously been the case, and there is a tendency to use, e.g., certain insecticide products, as dressing products. The search is being intensified for active ingredients derived from nature's own substances which, however, often need significant modification to become stable and suitable pesticides. As resistance to many products is constantly increasing, the continuous development of products that act through other mechanisms is vital, if we are to ensure continued effective pest control. Conclusions On the basis of the foregoing, we conclude that there is a number of existing alternative methods for preventing and controlling pests. They could be taken into use today. However, many of these methods have economic limitations and, in many cases, additional economic costs are involved in their use, in comparison to the costs of chemical methods. It would, however, be necessary to reinforce R&D efforts on these methods. Recommendations The Committee recommends a reinforced research effort on the development and improvement of alternative methods, so that they become economically competitive. It also recommends that, to the extent possible, marketing mechanisms be used to create crop-rotation regimes that require the lowest possible treatment frequency. Reinforced research effort A heightened effort in extension to existing research activities is to be recommended in the following areas: the following methods are considered to show special potential, and it is important to support them: preventive and non-chemical methods of control
areas related to chemicals
Advice When presenting research results, it is vital that a co-ordinated effort be made to ensure that all available information reaches the farmers. The Committee recommends the following strategy for this:
8.7 Consequences of a total or partial phase-out of pesticide use 8.7.1 Total phase-out Conditions of cultivation It is possible to practise a form of cultivation that has a preventive and reducing effect on pests, so that the risk of yield losses is diminished. To minimise losses resulting from pest attacks (including a reduction of the acreage used for winter cereals, from 60% to 40%), a total phase-out of pesticide use would demand a significant restructuring of present crop-rotation regimes. Together with better utilisation of disease resistance, broader distribution and further development of methods of mechanical weed control are among the most obvious. Adjustments to crop-rotation regimes would have a powerful effect, when the prevention of pests becomes more important than direct pest control. It could, thus, become relevant to make considerable changes to crop choices, for instance, to deal with weed problems. We consider that the demand for alternative methods would, in itself, be able to promote and stimulate the development of alternative methods. When phasing out dressing products for controlling seed-born diseases, the risk could arise of an uncontrollable and unforeseeable proliferation of seed-born diseases and great concomitant losses, for which reason a certain degree of dressing would be permitted in this scenario. Production losses in crops and crop-rotation regimes The total average production losses for different crops varies between 3% and 50%. Average grain yields would be cut by 23%. A total abolition of pesticide use would result in an average drop in farming yields of between 10% and 25%, at the farm level; the smallest losses would occur in cattle farming. On farms that have a large proportion of special crops, such as potatoes, sugar beet and seed grass, the production losses in terms of quantity would be closer to 50%. These crops would probably be ousted by other crops. These losses are average estimates for the individual types of farm and they conceal considerable deviations, which could be conditioned by both national and climatic factors. The maximum loss, which indicates that attacks could develop that cause between 25% and 100% loss of yield in several crops, was estimated for the individual crops. Significant annual deviations Significant annual deviations, which would reduce the present level of cultivation security, can be predicted in the losses that could occur in individual crops. The deviations between the individual farms would also be significant depending, for instance, on the type of soil and the pressure from weeds, so that it could become relevant to abandon the cultivation of certain areas. In the case of certain special crops, such as potatoes and seed grass, severe pest attacks could make it extremely difficult to observe the applicable quality requirements and, due to the large costs of weed control, sugar beet would give a very low contribution margin. According to the economic estimates, rape and peas would be replaced by rotation set-aside, and spring-sown cereals would be favoured over winter cereals. Set-aside favoured Due to present subsidy schemes, set-aside can compete with several of the traditional crops. This circumstance gives a total reduction of 30% in present grain production. In total economic optimisation, the set-aside proportion would be even greater and would only be limited by the applicable harmonisation requirements on the production of domestic animals. It would be possible to sustain animal production, as the lost grain production would mostly be replaced by importing cheap grain, from countries where pesticides are used in cultivation. Economic effects at the farm level The production drops mentioned above affect the earnings of the different types of farm for which, assuming imports of grain and protein crops, a reduction of the contribution margin was estimated (30-40%, on clay soil, and 20-50%, on sandy soil), depending on the type of farm. This drop would generally be larger for plant growers and pig farms than for cattle farms. Farms growing special crops would suffer the greatest losses. A summation of the farm-level changes in contribution margin II gives a roughly DKK 2.5bn loss for the sector. For the individual agricultural farms, a total pesticide phase-out would, depending on the type of farm, mean a drop in income of between DKK 35,000 and DKK 300,000, for an average full-time farm of 74 ha, which corresponds to between 20% and 90% of the income - least for cattle farms and most for the specialised plant growers, where no optimisation is done. An additional extensification of production, which would cause a 70% reduction of present grain production and would necessitate major grain imports, since it would not be possible to produce Danish grain at competitive prices without pesticides, was included in the social model, in contrast to the operating-economy model. The calculations were based on 92 prices. The calculations were based on unilateral Danish regulation of pesticide use, but with freedom to import conventional products. This means, for instance, that Danish grain would largely be replaced by imported grain (cultivated with the aid of pesticides), which would help to sustain Danish animal production. If we assume the implementation of a corresponding regulation of pesticide use abroad, we could expect a drop in the global supply of grain, with consequentially increasing prices. Such a development would strengthen the competitiveness of Danish grain, but at the cost of generally rising prices for foodstuffs and global economic loss for consumers. Consequences of banning grain imports It is not possible to estimate the economic consequences of a global restriction of pesticide use with the analytical tools available. It would be possible - as was done in the organic scenarios - to assess a situation in which increased imports of traditionally-grown grain are banned. In the organic scenario, the socioeconomic consequences of restricting fodder imports were estimated. This showed that the gross national product (GNP) would be reduced by 1.2% to 3%, which corresponds to an annual reduction of between DKK 11bn and DKK 26bn. Private consumption would be reduced by 2-5%, which corresponds to an annual reduction of between DKK 1,900 and DKK 4,700/inhabitant/year, or between DKK 7,720 and DKK 17,860/standard family/year. At the farm level, pig farms would suffer the greatest losses. This indicates that the magnitudes of the losses would be considerable in the event of a ban on increased grain imports. A global trade model would need to be designed, if precise estimates are desired in this area. Influence of GFI On condition that grain and protein-crops are imported, the gross factor income (which covers agriculture's contribution to total economic growth) would drop by DKK 3.4bn in primary agriculture, which corresponds to about 15%. There would be an additional loss in the agricultural manufacturing industries of DKK 1.0bn. Employment would drop by 16,000 whole-year workers in the agro-industrial complex. Moreover, manpower would be freed in a number of home-market trades and industries and real wages would have to drop by about 1%, so that the freed manpower could be absorbed by trade and industry. Influence on GNP The GNP, which is an expression of total Danish production, would drop by 0.8%, which corresponds to DKK 7.3bn. To the private consumer, this would mean a decline of DKK 1,500 per person per year, or DKK 5,700 per standard family (2 adults and 1.8 children) per year. Valuing influences on health and the environment We lack the data needed for valuing the effects of pesticide use on health and the environment. We consider that phasing out pesticide use would offer many gains. An adequate assessment of the social advantages and disadvantages associated with the cessation of pesticide use presumes a knowledge of people's willingness to pay for other values linked to these scenarios, such as nature and the environment. Costs for water supply If the political goal of a decentralised water supply is maintained, in which treatment must only be carried out as a temporary measure, the saving on protective measures would amount an annual DKK 145m to DKK 183m, which corresponds to between DKK 29 and DKK 37/person/year, or between DKK 110 and DKK 141/standard family/year. When estimating the costs of treating drinking water, which is based on "all-other-things-being-equal" considerations, the products that are prohibited today, but which still occur in ground water, were ignored. The economic calculations were based solely on the pollution estimated on the basis of the products that are approved today. These calculations rest, however, on slender foundations. Environmental effects on fauna The effects of pesticide use on above-ground arthropods are significant, and a larger insect population could be expected in the event of a phase-out of pesticide use. The insect fauna could be expected to increase by a factor of between 2 and 7, if herbicide use were to end, by 1-2.5, if treatment with fungicides ceased, and by 2-4, for an end to treatment with insecticides. Pesticide use is of less significance to springtails and earthworms, although changes in crop rotation can have a major influence on their populations. Some bird species would advance in comparison to present cropping, whereas other would not be affected by an end to pesticide use. Changed food supply For the fields, the indirect effects are the most important, such as changes in the food supply, as the direct toxic effects on birds are insignificant today. Here, it would be of no significance to birds whether the food supply is removed by pesticides, by mechanical means or by other means. Hoeing and harrowing constitute a risk to birds that nest on the ground. Similarly, early and/or more extensive autumn soil treatment would in all probability have detrimental effects on the birds. On the other hand, mechanical weeding would have a major influence on areas and small biotopes close to fields, as they would no longer be exposed to spray drift. Effects on flora Effects on the seed pool in the event of a total restructuring of pesticide use were not estimated; but a lower level of control and, therefore, more weeds in the event of a phase-out, was a general assumption of the calculations. Cessation of the use of pesticides that can come into contact with the ground would mean that residues of the pesticides now approved would largely disappear from the uppermost layer of the soil within 1 to 5 years. Influence on the aquatic environment Direct spray drift to watercourses, lakes and ponds would cease immediately, whereas pollution from surface runoff and drain water would continue for a few years. Pollution through contaminated ground water is expected to continue for a longer period in most places. Fewer overall effects could therefore be expected on the flora and fauna of ponds. Atmospheric pollution The atmosphere's contribution to farming would be reduced immediately, as far as the Danish contribution is concerned, but there would still be a relatively small contribution through long-range transboundary pollution. Other contributions from the atmosphere, such as DNOC, which can be formed in the atmosphere, e.g., from vehicle exhaust gases, would continue. Effects of changed crop-rotation regimes A phase-out of pesticide use would entail changed crop-rotation regimes, which would affect elements of the fauna that are otherwise unaffected by pesticide use. Crop rotation is a vital factor for conditions of life in the fields, as the choice of crops also has a significant influence on the use of pesticides, soil treatment, fertilisation and the timing of the individual operations. In the long term, a total pesticide phase-out would mean that the findings of pesticides in ground water would cease. It is not possible to estimate when the future pollution of ground water would cease at either the national or local levels. This would, of course, be a question of rather long periods (longer than 30 years). Energy consumption The total energy costs of Danish farming would not be significantly changed by a switch to pesticide-free farming. However, this should be considered in relation to the significant yield drop of about 25%. If a reduced yield were to entail increased imports, the energy consumption would be higher. Leaching of nutrient salts We consider that changes in mechanical soil treatment, changed crop-rotation regimes and reduced application of fertiliser would affect the leaching of nutrient salts. This change could be both detrimental and beneficial, and an assessment thereof would demand an extensive analysis. Working environment Many of the influences and loads on the working environment in present-day agriculture would be unchanged, regardless of whether or not pesticides are used. The exposure of farmers to pesticides would cease. Manual weeding can be considered as a monotonous, repetitive task and is deleterious, regardless of the fact that it is only takes place over a relatively brief period. Pesticide residues in foodstuffs Pesticide residues in imported foodstuffs, which account for 60% of the intake today, would also be present in the event of a total phase-out of pesticide use. At the level of the individual substance, the average load from foodstuffs is typically around 1% or less of the present acceptable daily intake (ADI). This load is distributed as 85%, from fruit and vegetables, 14%, from grain and grain products, whereas animal foodstuffs, fish and drinking water together account for less than 1%. Legislation Within the framework of EU law and WTO law, it is theoretically possible to introduce Danish legislation on a total ban on the sale and/or use of all pesticides per se in this country. However, this presumes that Denmark can refer to its special conditions, for instance, of farming, the environment or the climate, to justify a total ban. The technical information presented in the reports of the sub-committees is not considered able to justify such a ban on the sale and/or use of all pesticides as such. Unless the international rules are changed, Denmark cannot set other, lower, limits for pesticide residues in foodstuffs than those set by the EU. A total ban requires amended EU rules A total ban on the sale and/or use of all pesticides is, thus, not a realistic route - unless the international rules on trade, including the Treaty on European Union, are amended. A total ban on pesticides in farming would, therefore, demand political initiatives aimed at changing the international rules on trade. Such initiatives could be the establishment of a concerted EU policy aimed at phasing out the use of pesticides. The Committee considers that amendment of the pesticides directive, so that the directive falls within the scope of the environment guarantee of the Treaty on European Union, would only give Denmark relatively limited options for action. The feasibility of restructuring the EU farming subsidies is given special mention in connection with organic production. 8.7.2 Limited use of pesticides Cultivation conditions The use of pesticides against only the most harmful pests would be able to reduce pesticide use to a treatment frequency of 0.5, which corresponds to about 20% of present consumption (the +-scenario). For farms that have a large coarse-feed production, this could be done without significant drops in yield. For other farms, it would mean major restructuring of the crop-rotation regimes and significant yield reductions. Designation of actual sprayings is uncertain The uncertainties of this scenario are considerable, as it presumes that we can designate the treatments that would by their absence only give major yield losses. The treatment frequency in this scenario would vary from 0.2, for cattle farms on sandy soil, to 1.1, for potato growers on sandy soil. In this case, the farms would undergo largely the same restructuring as for a total ban; but the present production of special crops could be sustained. To reduce the losses, it would be necessary to take advantage of alternative methods of preventing and controlling pests. It would also be necessary to develop warning systems and decision support systems for new areas and to reinforce existing systems. Economic conditions The economically optimised crop-rotation regimes show that, in comparison to Present Cropping, the contribution margins would drop by 14-15%, for cattle farms on sandy soil, by 8-19%, for plant growers on sandy and clay soils, respectively, by 15% and 23%, for plant growers cultivating seeds and sugar beet, respectively, and by 15%, for potato growers. Influence at farm level A summation of the changes at the farm level show a loss of about DKK 1.3bn, for this sector. For the individual farms, a total ban on pesticides would, depending on the type of farm, mean a drop in income of between DKK 15,000 and DKK 75,000, for a 74-ha farm, which corresponds to between 10% and 25% of the income. Least for cattle farms and most for the specialised plant growers. Influence of GFI On condition that grain and protein crops are imported, the gross factor income would drop by DKK 1.8bn in primary agriculture, corresponding to 8%, In addition, there would be a loss in the agricultural manufacturing industries of DKK 0.1bn. Finally, there would also be a minor gain in the agricultural manufacturing industries. Influence on GNP The gross national product would drop by 0.4%, corresponding to DKK 3.1bn on 92 prices. In terms of private consumption, this would mean a decline of DKK 600/person/year, or DKK 2,280/standard family/year. Employment Employment would drop by 8,000 whole-year workers in the agro-industrial complex. Apart from this, manpower would be freed in a number of home-market trades and industries and real wages would have to drop by about 0.4%, so that the freed manpower could be absorbed by trade and industry. Environmental effects Pesticides would still be used in this scenario and would, depending on the type of substance, be able to present a risk of ground-water pollution, even though the frequencies of findings would be significantly lower with the passage of time than is the case today. It would also still happen that pesticides spread to the environment, but to a lesser extent than is the case in present pesticide use. Due to a lack of data, it is not possible to quantify the beneficial effects on vegetation. It would be necessary to make major changes to crop-rotation regimes, which would affect elements of the fauna that are otherwise unaffected by pesticide use. The indirect effects would also be of greatest significance, as was described in the total-ban scenario. The same trend as in a total pesticide phase-out would apply in the case of birds, although more weakly. Influences on flora It is possible to carry out model calculations of the trend in flora, although much uncertainty surrounds the trend in the seed pool in the case of limited use of pesticides in different crop-rotation regimes. Generally, there would be a little more weeds in the fields. In the case of limited pesticide use, the stated pesticide quantities were used in combination with mechanical weed control, in order to hold the quantity of weeds at a level that would permit reasonable agricultural production. A slightly greater occurrence of wild plants would be expected, which could form a food supply for a more variegated animal society. Influences on the aquatic environment It is probable that there would be effects of the flora and fauna of ponds, as a result of pesticide runoff. Such effects would, however, drop in proportion to the quantity of pesticides used. Winter cereals, potatoes, beets and peas would have the greatest impact, whereas spring-sown cereals, spring rape, maize and, to some extent, winter rape, would have less impact. The consequences for the working environment and public health are not expected to differ significantly from the case of a total ban on pesticide use. It was not possible to undertake valuing of any costs for the treatment of drinking water in this scenario. Legislation On certain conditions, the tools mentioned in the following would conform to EU and WTO rules. Chapter 5.11 contains a more detailed description of the conditions for using these tools. As long as the individual active ingredients are not added to the EU positive list, i.e., in the directive's transitional period (which at the time of writing is expected to expire in 2003), Denmark would still be able to prohibit the sale and/or use of specific pesticides. Thus, there is no obstacle to Denmark continuing to attempt to ban undesirable pesticides during the transitional period. Once individual active ingredients are included on the EU positive list, Denmark can only deny approval within narrow limits to specific pesticides containing those active ingredients. To a certain extent, Denmark can, with reference to the directive's rules on integrated control, deny the approval of pesticides in certain specific crops. However, this would presume that Denmark establish technically and economically well-founded principles of integrated control. Moreover, such principles would enable Denmark to attempt to influence EU efforts to complete the detailed rules on integrated control. In addition, the different tools could be taken into use with a view to reducing the use of pesticides. The tools could consist of general rules set on restricting use (for instance, on certain areas, or as a quota system), requirements on marketing (such as requirements on advertising, authorisation and sales outlets), as well as additional surcharges on pesticides. 8.7.3 Optimised use of pesticides Cultivation conditions There would only be limited declines in yield quantities under the optimised use of pesticides (++-scenario). We assumed that advantage would be taken of all available damage thresholds, together with weed harrowing and other mechanical weed control, where these methods are can compete with the chemical methods from the standpoints of effect and economics. We expect the use of crop-rotation regimes that correspond to present-day regimes. If the present assemblage of crops were to be retained, the treatment frequency would be 1.7, which would mean a reduction of 31%, in comparison to the present treatment frequency, and 48%, in comparison to the corrected treatment frequency. If economic optimisation of the assemblage of crops were to be undertaken, the treatment frequency would be about 1.4, which represents a 43% reduction in comparison to the present treatment frequency, and of 58%, in comparison to the corrected treatment frequency. Economic conditions The average contribution margins for all farms would not deviate significantly from those of Present Cropping. For certain types of farm, optimised correction would make it possible to improve the present contribution margins. Socioeconomic consequences were not expected to have significance for this scenario. There would, however, be a need for investments in new machinery for mechanical weed control and band spraying. Environmental effects The conclusions of this section largely corresponded to the conclusions of the previous phase-out scenario. The environmental effects were difficult to quantify, but were expected to fall between the effects of limited use and Present Cropping. No changes in crop rotation were expected, and so their associated effects could not occur. The consequences for the working environment and public health are not expected to differ significantly from those of Present Cropping. It was not possible to undertake valuation of any costs for the treatment of drinking water, for this scenario. Legislation Apart from the tools discussed under limited pesticide use, agreements with the agricultural industry are worth mentioning. The Minister could enter into agreements with the agricultural organisations, on a reduction in the use of pesticides. However, any agreement would, according to circumstance, have to be reported to the CEC. 8.8 Phasing out pesticide use in market gardening, fruit growing and forestry The appraisals made in the areas of market gardening, fruit growing and forestry were based on slender foundations, which made it difficult to describe the consequences of either a total or partial phase-out. It was difficult to generalise, due to the large number of cultures, and there were no real statistics on the present consumption of pesticides. Pesticide consumption in market gardening and fruit growing is generally considered to be large, in comparison to ordinary agricultural practice, whereas forestry uses only limited quantities. When assessing the consequences of the 0-scenario, the point of departure was taken in experience drawn from organic production. 8.8.1 Market gardening and fruit growing The market-gardening and fruit-growing areas The consequences of a total ban on pesticide use are expected to be major for the areas of market gardening and fruit growing, as it would be especially difficult to observe the applicable quality requirements. Field vegetables and garden seed The consequences of a total ban are expected to be very significant to the production of field vegetables and garden seed, and by far the greater part of this production would be abandoned, as the estimated yield losses and/or or extra costs are so great that dramatic price increases would be needed for maintaining unchanged contribution margins. Present organic production gives a price increase of 30-100%, depending on the crop. Corresponding price increases are considered necessary in the event of a total ban. Pesticide consumption could be reduced, for instance, in weed control. There would be an urgent need for the development of rational, effective and economically competitive methods of controlling weeds in crop rows by mechanical means or with the aid of cover materials. Production of fruit and berries The yield losses that would result from a total ban on pesticides are uncertain, but they would probably be very large. This was based on information from a limited number of organic growers. In the case of apple production, the losses related to the applicable quality requirements would amount to about 80% of the harvest. The yield in unsprayed pears would drop by 40-80%, by about 30%, in cooking cherries, by about 50%, in black currants, and by 40%, in strawberries, in comparison to traditional production. Without significant price increases, by far the greater part of fruit and berry production would become unprofitable, if production were to proceed without the use of pesticides. There would be an urgent need for the development of rational and effective alternative methods of controlling pests and weeds if pesticides were to be phased out, and it could become necessary to set changed quality rules for the goods produced. Greenhouse production As the production of ornamental plants in greenhouses comprises a very large number of cultures, distributed over edible cultures and ornamental plants, it is very difficult to generalise about the consequences of a total pesticide phase-out. A total ban introduced over a short period would have highly detrimental consequences for present greenhouse production which, for instance, would not be able to satisfy the international requirements set on pest control in connection with exports, which permit a maximum of only 2% of ordinary pests. In a partial pesticide phase-out scenario, we consider that there would be good prospects for continuing the production of vegetables. This is not least because biological methods of control are already widespread. Biological control can fail at intervals and, in such cases, chemical pest control is necessary today. The potential for extending biological pest control to the area of ornamental plants is considered very promising. This means that, with the passage of time, insecticides could be mainly reserved for dealing with situations in which biological control fails, and with zero-tolerance and 2%-pests. At the time of writing, there are no alternatives that could immediately satisfy all of the needs for growth regulation and chemical control of disease. Nurseries It was our opinion in the 0-scenario that most production would cease, because the quality of cultures would drop or the cultures would become so expensive that they would be unable to compete with production in other countries. We consider that 50-70% of production could be sustained. Nursery-garden cultures are particularly delicate in the reproduction phase, from the standpoints of reproduction with seeds or cuttings. We consider that, where insecticides and fungicides are concerned, the 0-scenario would be devastating to the production of many cultures. It is difficult to analyse the consequences of partial a phase-out for the cultivation of nursery-garden cultures. We consider that part of nursery-garden production could be sustained, even if pesticide consumption were to be reduced, but that this would demand the availability of products for controlling acute, severe pest attacks. We consider that technical changes could be implemented to cope with weed control to some extent. This is a question of changed culture methods, in which mechanical weed control would be easier, and the use of cover crops or organic materials, such as chipwood, could alleviate the weed problem. Many of the alternative methods could alleviate several of the current problems. Economic consequences for market gardening and fruit growing The economic consequences of phasing out pesticides within market gardening and fruit growing were only to a limited extent by the Committee; but we consider that the economic consequences for fruit growing, in particular, would be significant. The large yield reductions and the poorer quality would mean that dramatic price increases would be necessary if production were to be able to continue. Production would be identical to production of organic farms today, and correspondingly high prices would have to be attained for production to be realistic. For some cultures, experience from organic market gardening and organic fruit growing is extremely limited, which has made it difficult to assess the real consequences. Denmark's share, e.g., in the area of fruit, has been falling in recent years and international competition is considerable. To a certain extent, Danish products have profiled themselves as being "green products", which is the case for greenhouse vegetables, for instance, where biological control is used to a great extent. This trend could be reinforced by continuing to focus on the reduction of pesticide consumption. About 6,700 people are employed in the market-gardening trade, mostly in the area of ornamental plants, where Danish exports exceed DKK 2bn. If we assume that the gross factor income from market gardening drops by 20%, in the 0-scenario, and by 10%, in the +-scenario, phasing out the use of pesticides would mean a drop in the gross factor income of about DKK 500m in market gardening, in the event of a total ban on pesticide use (the 0-scenario), or about half that, in the +-scenario. Compared to the losses in farming, of DKK 3.4bn and DKK 1.8bn, respectively, the losses in market gardening would probably increase the total socioeconomic loss by 10-15%, in the event of a total ban. Environment and health Market gardening and fruit growing consumes large quantities of pesticides, which increases the risk of point-source pollution from these sources. Furthermore, this intensive use of pesticides entails a higher risk of the exposure of the employees. If Danish production of fruit and vegetables were to drop, the increased imports of these products would entail a risk of increasing the total pesticide intake. Danish greenhouse vegetables generally have a lower pesticide content than foreign products, whereas certain outdoor fruits hold at least the same level of residues as foreign fruits. Conclusions We conclude that, in comparison to agriculture, market gardening and fruit growing cover small areas with a high treatment frequency. Measured as the quantity of active ingredients, this sector represents about 7% of the total consumption. There is only little knowledge of environmental effects, the working environment, agricultural patterns and of the feasibility of phasing out pesticides. It is an area that is generally exposed to stiff international competition. There are excellent prospects for developing alternative methods. There is a risk of increased intake of pesticide residues from imported fruit and vegetables. Recommendation The Committee recommends the increased dissemination of existing know-how and R&D, with a view to reducing the use of pesticides in the areas of market gardening and fruit growing. 8.8.2 Private forestry Consequences of cultivation In the case of wood-producing forestry, we consider that a total ban on the use of pesticides would entail a significantly longer culture phase, incomplete cultures and increased costs for replanting, which would give poorer economy and a changed composition of forests. We consider that one consequence of banning pesticides could be that the assemblage of tree species in forests would change towards less deciduous forest. At the time of writing, there is an action plan for state forestry to phase out pesticide use. The experience gleaned through this action plan could be applied in private forestry. In contrast to re-establishment in forests, afforestation offers good prospects for mechanical weed control and prevention. A considerable development effort is being made in mechanical control, and a number of practicable machines have been designed for use on easy, flat land. However, the development of machines for use on difficult, undulating land is only progressing slowly. If herbicides were to be prohibited in good localities for deciduous trees, we would have to expect that afforestation would be impeded. The quality requirements set on the production of Christmas trees are high. Even minor injuries, caused either by pests or weeds, can determine whether or not trees or greenery can be sold. A total ban on pesticides would, thus, be devastating for the present production of ornamental greenery. Economic consequences Calculating with drops in forestry's gross factor income of 20%, in the 0-scenario, and 10%, in the +-scenario, a phase-out of pesticide use would mean a drop in the GFI of about DKK 225m, in forestry under a total ban on pesticides (the 0-scenario), as opposed to about half that amount in the +-scenario. Compared to the losses in agriculture, of DKK 3.4bn and DKK 1.8bn, respectively, the losses in market gardening and forestry would, thus, probably increase the total socioeconomic loss by 10-15%, in the event of a pesticide phase-out. Environmental consequences The quantities of pesticides used in forestry are small, whereas they are of the same order of magnitude in Christmas-tree and ornamental-greenery cultures as in agriculture. Although we lack specific studies of the effects of herbicides on the flora of the forest floor, there is no doubt that even the limited use that occurs in forestry has a powerful and deleterious effect on the actual flora of the forest floor. Many species of these flora have extremely low recolonisation rates, of less than 1 m/year, which makes them especially sensitive to the use of herbicides, even though this only takes place in connection with felling and afforestation. The cessation of herbicide use in forests could, with the passage of time, mean the establishment of forest-floor flora that are naturally adapted to the local conditions of soil and climate. In the event of deep ploughing over large areas, mechanical control of undesired vegetation could, however, have the same direct effects on the flora as herbicides and, thus, also the same indirect effects on the associated fauna. Additionally, there would be detrimental effects on soil fauna, fungi, soil profiles and cultural monuments. In cases where self-sowing is not used, it is vital to the flora of the forest floor that soil treatment leave untreated areas and that regeneration take place through shelter-wood systems with retention of the choice of tree species. The use of herbicides in cultures of ornamental greenery and Christmas trees in the +-scenario and ++-scenario would maintain a low level of biodiversity of the flora of these areas, in so far as there are no alternative, environmentally-acceptable methods. 8.9 Total organic restructuring The consequences have been estimated of a total of six different scenarios, two yield levels in plant production and three levels of fodder imports: 0, 15/25% (which corresponds to today's rules) and unlimited (which corresponds to today's fodder imports). Cultivation conditions Vegetable products to satisfy home consumption are produced in all scenarios, but no vegetables are exported, in contrast to today's situation, in which the net exports of grain account for almost a fifth of the harvest and there are significant exports of seeds, sugar and potato starch. The production of milk and beef could be sustained at an almost unchanged level, through adjustment to fodder that contains more coarse feed. Pork and poultry production would vary in step with imports of fodder and productivity in plant production. In the case of zero imports, production would drop to about 30-44% of present production and, for 15/25% imports, production would drop to 71-93% of present production. However, this production is based on significantly changed production systems, as organic farming is based on variegated crop-rotation regimes, with a significant proportion of nitrogen-fixing and perennial crops. To ensure a sufficient supply of quality seed grain, the early generations were assumed to be dressed with pesticides, until the development and implementation of new, non-chemical methods. Fertilisation conditions Fertiliser from domestic animals is a limited resource and was assumed to be evenly distributed from the standpoint of crop rotation. Domestic animals must, therefore, be assumed to be more evenly distributed in 100% organic farming than is the case today. There were more dairy cows in the scenarios than in present-day agriculture, with a lower average yield, and bull calves from milk production would fattened as bullocks. The nitrogen cycle was significantly reduced in the organic scenarios, to a level that corresponded to Danish agriculture of the 1950s, because nitrogen would not be imported in the form of artificial fertiliser. Potassium is easily leached out of coarse sandy soils and it would be necessary to add potassium. We consider that it would be necessary to import roughly 60 to 100 million kg potassium/year in all scenarios, most where fodder imports would be impossible. Potassium imports are permitted according to present rules. There was an unused potential for the recirculation of nutrients from urban societies in the organic scenarios. The quantity was relatively small - about a tenth of the amount consumed in all agriculture. Recirculation could, however, play a vital role, e.g., in vegetable production. Consideration for the needs of domestic animals in the presumed, relatively high, level of production would necessitate imports of fodder phosphates, even in the scenario in which fodder imports would be banned. This is also permitted today and would mean that we avoid problems with phosphorus in the nutrient balance. Organic production of fruit, certain special crops and individual vegetable species is particularly problematical. In apples, we would expect a catastrophic decline in yield, in the varieties used today, at any rate, and there could also be difficulties with durability and, thus, the length of the season. For vegetables, the increased yield variation would be a problem in itself, due to the high establishment costs and the accompanying economic risk. We can conclude that the large-scale production of organic ornamental greenery would be difficult and would demand major development work. Environmental effects This section should be considered as a supplement to the conclusions of the section on total pesticide phase-out (Section 8.2). Our conclusions on effects on the working environment and health are not given, as they are assumed to be the same as in a pesticide phase-out. The calculations showed a 50-70% reduction of the net contribution of nitrogen to the soil in the organic scenarios, in comparison to the Danish agriculture of 1996. Against this background, we would have to expect a significant reduction of nitrogen leaching in the long term, retaining the same cultivation practices. It should, however, be noted that great uncertainties are associated with the calculations. Energy consumption The consumption of fossil energy and production of greenhouse gases would drop in step with the scale of animal production. In addition, energy consumption per unit vegetable and animal produced would drop, mainly because of the changed assemblage of crops and because industrially-manufactured nitrogen fertilisers would not be used. However, the model calculations showed that, if the crops were to be used for energy purposes, the net energy production would be higher in conventional plant cultivation, due to the higher yield. Total restructuring for organic farming would change the flora and fauna. Species diversity would gradually increase, even though mainly in species that are already rather common. The greatest qualitative effects would be found in semi-culture areas and in the small biotopes. We could expect a significant increase in the quantity of soil organisms, primarily due to changed crop-rotation regimes, on restructuring for organic operation. This would be significant to the soil's structure and fertility, as well as to the food supply in the subsequent food chain. Socioeconomics About 3% of Danish foodstuffs production is organic today, although the market share varies considerably, from 0% to 22%. We estimate that a maximum price increase for the consumer of 10-25% would permit continued growth in the market share of organic foodstuffs, on the condition of continuing public interest in organic foodstuffs production. A socioeconomic model was used to perform a number of calculations, which first and foremost illuminated the deleterious consequences, which the drop in primary production would cause. The calculations were based on "compulsory" restructuring, as that would be the only way to attain 100% restructuring. Thus, the Danish consumers' possible preferences for organic farming were not valued. On the other hand, a sensitivity estimate was done, in which it was assumed that foreign consumers shift their preferences to the advantage of Danish organic export products. The socioeconomic calculations showed that 100% organic farming in Denmark and unchanged consumer preferences would reduce the society's economy in step with the drop in the size of primary production. Influence on GNP The gross national product (GNP) would be reduced by 1.2-3%, which corresponds to an annual reduction of DKK 11-26bn. Private consumption would be reduced by 2-5%, corresponding to between DKK 1,900 and DKK 4,700/inhabitant/year, or from DKK 7,720 to DKK 17,860/standard family/year. At the farm level, pig farms would suffer the greatest losses. Changed consumer preferences in the export markets, corresponding to price increases of 10% on milk and 20% on pork, show that this would only diminish private consumption by about an annual DKK 2.5bn, or about DKK 500/inhabitant/year, corresponding to DKK 1,900/standard family/year. Environmental gains A valuing analysis was also performed on the quantifiable environmental gains of omitting pesticides, reduction in nitrogen leaching and releases of greenhouse gases. This analysis showed that these environmental gains amounted to DKK 1-1.5bn/year. The model calculations used assumed unchanged employment for society in its entirety but, as a result of the decline in primary production, there would be significant declines in agriculture, the foodstuffs industry and the industries associated therewith. We assume that this manpower would be used in other industries, especially export-oriented industries. Rate of restructuring The costs of compulsory restructuring would be large. If, instead, demand and price mechanisms were allowed to control the restructuring rate, there would be no guarantee for how far restructuring would progress, but it can be assumed that the restructuring that took place would improve the welfare of society. This is because a market-driven change is - according to prevailing economic theory - synonymous with a more efficient allocation of resources in society. Since the change would be linked to beneficial environmental effects, it would not need to be based on market forces alone, to improve society's welfare. Legislation As it would hardly be possible to compel total restructuring to organic production within the framework of the applicable EU rules, such restructuring could only take place if the agricultural industries were to undertake it on their own initiative. In this context, the agricultural industries could attempt to achieve a marketing advantage through voluntary labelling schemes. Prospects of obtaining subsidies According to EU rules, it is possible to obtain subsidies in the form of co-financing of organic production. However, these rules do not make it possible to grant subsidies for compulsory organic production. A purely Danish scheme for subsidising organic production would require the approval of the EU, pursuant to the Treaty on European Union, Arts. 92 -93, on state subsidies. It would probably be difficult to obtain such approval, if this were a question of operating subsidies for an entire industrial sector. It would be possible to impose surcharges on conventional farming products, to the extent that such surcharges did not discriminate against foreign products, as compared to home produce. Pursuant to the 6th V.A.T. directive, organic foodstuffs could be subjected to lower V.A.T. rates than other foodstuffs. Any requirement on total restructuring for organic production in Denmark would, therefore, require political initiatives aimed at changing international legislation. Such initiatives could include additional economic incentives for promoting organic production, cf. Agenda 2000, and better possibilities for changing the labelling schemes. Development If development continues as in recent years, we expect that about 20% would be restructured by 2008, which would result in a 14-18% reduction in the average pesticide treatment frequency, in comparison to present agriculture. 8.10 Recommendations on total or partial phasing-out of pesticides and on restructuring for organic production
As the point of departure of its recommendations, the Committee notes that the 1986 pesticides action plan set a target of halving the treatment frequency, which corresponds to a treatment frequency of 1.3, or 1.7, for a crop-corrected treatment frequency. The implemented reassessment has had a beneficial environmental effect. However, the treatment-frequency target has not yet been attained.
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