- and two yield levels

The scenarios use two different yield levels in the main crops, i.e. cereals and grass: the "present yield level" based on current organic practice, and an "improved yield level", in which it is assumed that cereal production could be increased by 15% and clover grass production by 10%. This is based on a more goal-oriented effort to increase cereal production and better use of pastureland as a result of the lower yield of the individual dairy cow compared with present organic practice. The three levels of feed import and two yield levels are expressed in six different organic scenarios:

- six scenarios in all

No export of plant products

Plant products are produced for domestic consumption in all the scenarios, but no plant products are exported, in contrast to today's situation, in which the net export of grain accounts for almost one fifth of the harvest and in which there are significant exports of seeds, sugar and potato starch.

The production of milk and beef could be sustained at an almost unchanged level through adjustment to feed that contains more coarse feed. Pork and poultry production would vary in step with imports of feed and productivity in plant production. In the case of 0-import, production would drop to about 30-44% of present production and, for 15-25% import, production would drop to 71-93% of present production. In arable farming, feed is produced for the above-mentioned livestock production, and plants are produced for current human consumption. It is assumed that cereal and seed grain of sufficiently good quality can be produced since the early generations are assumed to be dressed with pesticides until new organic production methods for seed grain are developed and implemented.

Necessary to import potassium

The scenarios indicate a number of constraints on a total switch to organic farming. The main constraint is probably that, in all the scenarios, it is estimated that it would be necessary to import potassium in the order of magnitude of 60 to 100 mill. kg K per year (most in the 0-import scenarios) in order to maintain yields in clover grass at the level of the empirical basis for the scenarios. In coarse sandy soil, potassium leaches easily and has to be added. There are unexploited possibilities for recirculation from urban communities in the organic scenarios, but the quantities would be relatively small compared with the need for potassium. Besides potassium, it would be necessary to import feed phosphates for the animals, also in the 0-import scenarios, to meet the animals’ needs. That means, on the other hand, that there would be no problems with the nutrient balance for phosphorus. Under the current organic rules it is permissible to purchase feed minerals and sparingly soluble mineral fertiliser.

Import of feed is important to nutrient balance

To summarise, the loss of phosphorus and potassium through sales products must be made up for by a supply to farmland in the form of mineral fertilisers, recirculation or feed. Nutrient import via feed thus plays a significant role in the organic scenarios. As mentioned, the current rules allow use of 15% conventional feed for ruminants and 25% for pigs and poultry. However, a discussion now going on in the EU indicates that permission to use conventional feed will be withdrawn over a period of years. In such case, the need for imported feed will have to be met with organically cultivated feed. If feed were supplied to 100% organic farms in Denmark, there would be a corresponding loss from farms elsewhere in the world, which would shift the nutrient problem but not solve it. It has not been clarified how the exporters of organic feed in other countries would be able to achieve nutrient balance so that a larger organic export of feed to Denmark could be maintained in the longer term. It is therefore uncertain whether it would be possible to maintain the present quantity of exported pork from a 100% organic agricultural sector in Denmark.

Particular problems in fruit, vegetables and special crops

Organic production of fruit, certain special crops and individual vegetable species is particularly problematical. In conventional operation, larger quantities of pesticides are used in these crops than in ordinary farm crops, and the financial value of using pesticides is high. There could also be difficulties with storage and shelf life and, thus, the length of the season. For vegetables, the increased yield variation would be a problem in itself, due to the high establishment costs and the accompanying economic risk.

- and in ornamental greenery

It is difficult to use and transfer the rules for organic production of agricultural and horticultural products to the forestry sector because the time horizon and the production period within forestry are very long, with continuous value growth throughout the production period. However, problems can be expected with national monuments in old forest areas, where there is little possibility of mechanical weed control, and it can be concluded that production of organic ornamental greenery and Christmas trees on a large scale would be difficult and would require extensive development work.

The nitrogen cycle is significantly reduced in the organic scenarios, to a level corresponding to Danish agriculture in the 1950s, because nitrogen would not be imported in the form of artificial fertiliser. It would instead be obtained by symbiotic nitrogen fixation in clover grass fields and through importation of feed, but cereal production would be limited by nitrogen in all the scenarios. The calculations show a 50-70% reduction of the net contribution of nitrogen to the soil in the organic scenarios compared with Danish agriculture in 1996. One would therefore have to expect a significant reduction of nitrogen leaching in the long term, retaining the same cultivation practices. It should be noted, however, that the calculations are encumbered with great uncertainty.

Energy and greenhouse gases

The consumption of fossil energy and emission of greenhouse gases would fall in step with the scale of livestock production. The fall in Danish pork exports would presumably be balanced by an increase in production in other countries. Restructuring Danish agriculture for organic production would therefore not necessarily reduce global energy consumption even if Denmark’s CO₂ account were improved. Energy consumption per unit of plant and livestock production would fall, mainly because of the changed composition of crops at a 100% organic farm and because industrially manufactured nitrogen fertilisers would not be used. On the other hand, if some of the crops were used for energy purposes, there would be a bigger net energy production in conventional arable farming because of the higher yield.

Increased natural content

A complete switch to organic farming would result in larger quantities of flora and fauna in crop rotation fields. Species diversity would gradually increase, although mainly in species that are already rather common. The biggest qualitative effects would be found in semi-natural ecosystems and in small biotopes because there would no longer be any spreading and drift of pesticides or unintentional delivery of top-dressed artificial fertiliser to edge biotopes.

A considerable increase in the quantity of organisms in the soil can be expected with a switch to organic farming, mainly because of changed crop rotations, and that would affect the structure of the soil, the release of nutrients and the food basis for large parts of animal life in and over the earth.

The consequences for public health of a total switch to organic farming would depend on changes in the intake of physiologically important substances. Some changes could be expected in the content of physiologically important substances, but they would be generally small in relation to the effect of changes in the composition of the diet.

Use of antibiotics is falling

Use of antibiotic growth promoters would end altogether with a total switch to organic farming. It should be mentioned, however, that the use of growth promoters in conventional farming is going to be phased out in 1999. Overall, it is estimated that the consumption of therapeutic pharmaceuticals would fall by around 30% with unchanged livestock production and further still with falling livestock production. Discontinuation of use of growth promoters is presumed to reduce the risk of transference of resistant genes to bacteria pathogenic to humans.

An established market

Today, there is an established market for organic food products. Approx. 3% of all Danish food consumption is organic and the share of the market ranges from 0-22% for different products. It is characteristic that the biggest market shares are gained for relatively cheap food products, such as milk, potatoes and vegetables. For processed products, such as meat, cheese and butter, the market shares are small.

- with price premiums

The price premium for organic products also varies greatly – from 5 to 90% for the farmer in relation to corresponding, conventional products. In the longer term, it is estimated that a price premium for the consumer of maximum 10-25% would enable continued growth in the market share of organic food products. However, for a growing market for organic food to materialise, the consumers would have to compose their consumption not only with a view to satisfying their material needs but also with consideration for their own values, including an interest in the production process in food production.

Socioeconomic consequences difficult to predict

It is extremely difficult to predict the socioeconomic consequences because the change is a very big one, with both primary production and a number of associated sectors affected to a greater or lesser extent.

A number of analyses have been carried out with a socioeconomic model that primarily throws light on the costs that would arise from the fall in primary production. The analyses are based on a "compulsory" switch to organic farming because that would be the only sure way of achieving 100% conversion. Any preferences the Danish consumers may have for organic farming have thus not been valued. On the other hand, a sensitivity analysis has been carried out in which it is assumed that foreign consumers’ preferences change to the benefit of Danish organic products.

Impairs the national economy

The socioeconomic analyses show that 100% organic farming in Denmark with unchanged consumer preferences would impair the national economy. Gross National Product (GNP) would be reduced by 1-3%, corresponding to a reduction of DKK 11-26 billion per year. Private consumption would be reduced by 2-5%, corresponding to DKK 1,900-4,700 per capita per year.

The effect would depend on feed imports and productivity in primary production. 0-import and present yield level would result in the biggest reduction, while 15-25% import and improved yield level would result in the smallest reduction.

The different agricultural sectors would be affected very differently. For example, dairy farming would remain largely unchanged, whereas pig farming and arable farming would be very badly affected. These changes would affect farm economy in dairy farming, pig farming and arable farming.

- depends on consumer preferences

A sensitivity analysis has also been carried out in which changed consumer preferences in the export markets are assumed, corresponding to a price premium of 10% on milk and 20% on pork. This analysis has only been carried out for 15-25% feed import and improved practice. The analysis shows that this would reduce private consumption by about DKK 500 per capita per year and that the GNP would be reduced by DKK 8.5 billion per year.

- and valuation

A valuation has been carried out of the quantifiable environmental benefits of omitting pesticides, reducing nitrogen leaching and reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. There are big differences in the different groups’ willingness to pay for environmental benefits, and the valuation here is based only on alternative costs in the form of society’s savings in connection with the conversion. The analysis shows that the alternative costs of the environmental benefits can be put at DKK 1-1.5 billion per year, but it should be noted that the valuation is very uncertain.

The socioeconomic analyses show that the costs of compulsory 100% conversion are high. If one instead allowed demand and the price mechanism to govern the rate of conversion, there would be no guarantee as to how much would be converted, but it can be assumed that the conversion that did take place would improve society’s welfare. That is because, according to current economic theory, a market-driven change is synonymous both with a more effective resource allocation in society and with the consumers, through their change of preference, individually assigning the "right" value to organic food products, corresponding to their willingness to pay. Since a switch to organic farming is associated with beneficial environmental effects, it need not be based on market forces alone in order to improve the welfare of society, but can be based on government regulation.

The Sub-committee on Legislation has considered some legal questions concerning possible restructuring of Danish agriculture for organic production (chapter 8). It is concluded that, with the current EU rules, it would hardly be possible to implement compulsory conversion. It is not possible to prohibit the importation of conventional or organic feed or food products. As long as the current EU rules remain in force, the most realistic scenario would be voluntary conversion to organic production. The sub-committee also indicates some legal initiatives that the Danish government could take in an EU context to promote conversion to organic production.

In this report, the organic scenarios are based on a number of assumptions that can be discussed in connection with the perspectives for organic agriculture in Denmark. The main assumptions can be divided into two groups, as follows:

1. The organic form of production, which in turn depends on the interpretation of organic farming’s basic concept, including legislation and rules on imports and self-sufficiency in fertiliser and feed.
2. Society’s interest in and the consumers’ preference for the organic form of production.

- are related to the precautionary principle

The trend in organic production has hitherto been based extensively on changes in consumer preferences to the benefit of organic products. This change in consumer preferences may be connected with a conscious or unconscious use of a preventive or precautionary principle based on the consumers’ experiences with the use of new technology in farming.

- sustainability

Involvement of the precautionary principle is bound up with a perception of nature as more or less fragile and acceptance of man as an integral part of nature. In the form of the concept "sustainability", this insight has gained a big foothold in the national debate.

- and perception of nature

Organic farming is based on a different perception of nature than the one that has dominated in conventional farming. This difference in the perception of nature leads to a different approach to food production and prevention of environmental problems. Seen in this way, organic farming would do more to prevent environmental problems than conventional farming, but, the level of production and productivity would be lower. Organic food production would therefore involve more production costs. However, it is estimated that it would be possible to improve the efficiency of organic farming in the long run, although this would depend on organic farmers wanting a development in which the rules are generally up for debate but naturally with proper respect for organic farming’s values.

The cost of compulsory total restructuring would be high. If one instead allowed demand and the price mechanism to govern the rate of conversion, there would be no guarantee as to how much would be converted, but it can be assumed that the conversion that did take place would improve society’s welfare. Since the change would be linked to beneficial environmental effects, it would not need to be based on market forces alone to improve society's welfare.

Government regulation and changed subsidy schemes increase conversion

It follows from the above that the impact on the common environment from agriculture constitutes grounds for government regulation and that increasing the rate of conversion may be warranted. In continuation of that, the trends in international agricultural and trade policy will be of importance. For example, the current trends point in the direction of unlinking subsidy and production quantity and towards higher prioritisation of environmental objectives. These perspectives may imply incentives for a continued expansion of organic food production.

As far as the market perspectives are concerned, continued high prioritisation of the environment and livestock welfare is presumed to lead to continued growth in the demand for organic food products. The reason why this prioritisation is assumed to be primarily addressed to organic food products is that only organic farming is based on a clear and internationally recognised concept.

if the players agree

All in all, it follows that the development perspectives will depend on market conditions and political decisions. However, in addition to that, it must again be stressed that the development perspectives also depend on whether relevant players agree on and are motivated for a conversion of the extensive network of companies and institutions of which agriculture is a part.

- and reduce the use of pesticides

With respect to society’s current possibility of reducing the use of pesticides, organic farming is an obvious option. If the development continues as hitherto, about 20% can be expected to have been converted by the year 2008, which will result in a 14-18% reduction in the average treatment frequency compared with present practice. As long as there is a market prepared to pay a premium for organic products, that will be the socioeconomically cheapest solution.

2. Introduction

In a letter dated 26 February 1998 to Svend Bichel, the Minister of Environment and Energy requested the committee appointed to assess the overall consequences of phasing out the use of pesticides (the Bichel Committee) to incorporate a project in its work with a view to an assessment of the overall consequences of a total restructuring of the agricultural sector for organic production. The reason for this was that in association with the Finance Act for 1998, the Government, the Socialist People's Party and the Red Green Alliance (Denmark) agreed to reinforce efforts for protecting the aquatic environment and for promoting restructuring for organic production. In that connection, a sum of DKK 2 million was set aside for developing scenarios for assessing the overall consequences of a total organic restructuring of agriculture.

The work on the organic scenarios follows the mandate of 4 July 1997 for the above-mentioned committee.

2.1 Organisation of the work

An interdisciplinary group was appointed

To ensure coherence and an integrated approach in the work on the organic scenarios, it was found that a slightly different form of cooperation was needed between the specialist sub-committees than in the work on phasing out the use of pesticides. The coordination group under the Bichel Committee, which is composed of the chairmen of the main committee and the sub-committees, therefore appointed an interdisciplinary group with one participant from the Sub-committee on Legislation and two from each of the other sub-committees.

Scientific responsibility

The group’s task was to prepare a proposal describing the work needed and subsequently to follow up on its implementation and present a combined report. The work was based on the existing structure of the Bichel Committee. The scientific responsibility for the various chapters in the report lay with the respective sub-committees. The Sub-committee on Agriculture was thus responsible for chapter 5 (Agricultural consequences), the Sub-committee on Environment and Health for chapter 6 (Consequences for environment and health), the Sub-committee on Production, Economy and Employment for chapter 7 (Consequences for production, economics and employment) and the Sub-committee on Legislation for chapter 8 (Legal aspects). Responsibility for the remaining chapters lay with the coordination group.

The main committee and sub-committees were kept informed during the work to enable decisions to be taken concerning any deviations from the original plan. This report was discussed at the sub-committees’ meetings in January and February 1999 with a view to scientific assessment and approval of the results within the respective committees’ areas.

The interdisciplinary group comprised:

The members of the interdisciplinary group:

Johannes Nebel, farmer, Sub-committee on Agriculture

Lisbeth Frank Hansen, consultant, Sub-committee on Agriculture

Hans Løkke, Director of Research Department, Sub-committee on Environment and Health

Dr. Lars Ovesen, Head of Division, Sub-committee on Environment and Health

Alex Dubgaard, Reader, Sub-committee on Production, Economics and Employment

Jan Holm Ingemann, Reader, Sub-committee on Production, Economics and Employment

Lisbeth Arebo Jacobsen, Principal, Sub-committee on Legislation

Kaj Juhl Madsen, Head of Section, Secretariat for the Pesticide Committee

Erik Steen Kristensen, Chief Scientist, Secretariat for the Pesticide Committee

The group was linked to the expert environment under the Danish Research Center for Organic Farming, in which connection Chief Scientist Erik Steen Kristensen was attached to the Secretariat for the Pesticide Committee to manage the work of the group. Assistant Research Scientist Hugo Fjelsted Alrøe, Research Center for Organic Farming, carried out a large part of the compilation of this report.

3. Organic farming today

In recent years, there has been growing interest in organic farming and organic food production. In 1988, there were 219 organic farms in Denmark, corresponding to 0.2% of all agricultural land. Preliminary figures for 1998 show 2,228 organic farms, corresponding to just over 3% of agricultural land. Action Plan II includes a forecast for restructuring up to the year 2003, when there are expected to be just over 5,000 organic farms with a total of just under 300,000 ha, corresponding to more than 10% of agricultural land in Denmark (The Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries 1999).

Growing demand

It is important to stress that consumer interest in organic products is a significant driving force behind the above trend. Despite consumers having to pay premiums of 5-90%, there is a constantly growing demand for organic food products. However, the breakthrough relates mainly to the relatively cheap products, whereas there is not as yet any significant market for organic meat.

The Danish authorities’ definition of organic farming was given for the first time in Act on Organic Agricultural Production (No. 363 of 10 June 1987). The latest formulation is quoted below:

Definition and goal

"Organic farming is based on a goal of establishing stable and harmonious operating systems in which the individual types of production can be integrated in a natural biological cycle. Wherever possible, there should be livestock on the farms. Artificial fertilisers, pesticides and growth regulators are not used, and industrially produced additives are not used in feed. The supply of fertiliser is based mainly on organic dressings, manure, green dressings, crop residue, etc. and nitrogen fixation through leguminous plants. Plant diseases, weeds and pests are controlled by well-planned and diversified crop rotations, mechanical soil preparation and a suitable choice of varieties, including mixed varieties." (Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries 1995, p. 51)

The main thing about organic farming is that it is based on an explicit goal of establishing stable and harmonious operating systems in which the various types of production can be integrated in a natural biological cycle. The main objectives are to work for a more closed feed and nutrient cycle, to avoid polluting the environment and to preserve/increase the fertility of the soil. In conventional farming it is only in the last few years that people have begun discussing a common goal that covers more than simply profit maximisation. See, for example "Good Farming Year 2000" (Agricultural Advisory Service 1996).

The perception in organic farming is that it is possible to use a production method that is based on a more varied crop rotation than in conventional farming, using perennial and nitrogen-fixating crops together with organic dressings, which are regarded as fundamental for organic food production. Organic farmers say: "You fertilise the soil – not the crops". The basic values of organic farming are described in greater detail in chapter 9.

In this introductory section we shall focus on the legislation and rules on which a model for 100% organic farming has been based.

Legislation and rules

From the very first law on organic farming in 1987, the main focus has been on the production and environmental aspects of different operating systems. However, in recent years, great attention has also been focused on the welfare and quality aspects of organic farming. (Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries 1999).

Many organic farms are also authorised by the National Organisation for Organic Farming, which means that the amount of fertiliser that may be used must not exceed manure from 1.4 l.u./ha as an average for the whole farm. It should also be noted that the legislation and rules are still being developed. For example, an increased requirement concerning self-sufficiency in feed is anticipated.

4. Definition of the work and method

100% organic farming cannot be precisely defined

- so there is a need for a process-oriented method of work

Today, only a relatively small proportion of farms are organic farms. This fact, together with the above-mentioned complexity, means that a 100% organic farm must be expected to be very different from the organic farms we know today. It has therefore been necessary to adopt a process-oriented approach, so that different possibilities for how a 100% organic agricultural sector might look can be discussed in a dynamic process. In other words, it has also been necessary to focus on how and why a given scenario can be expected to emerge because it is only through this process that a 100% organic agricultural sector can take form. For example, there has had to be a balanced discussion of the flow of nutrients to and from Denmark. If all farming in Denmark were organic there would be no conventional farms from which to buy manure, and importing manure is not a relevant option. On the other hand, one can discuss the extent to which Denmark must be self-sufficient in feed and the requirements that might have to be made concerning import of feed and other nutrients. Another advantage of this process-oriented method of work is that it produces good background knowledge on which to base any decisions concerning a desired development.

The work process was divided into two stages:

1. firstly, an objective and documented description of organic farming was prepared on the basis of various viewpoints
2. secondly, the various viewpoints and problems were combined and the different considerations were assessed.

The main committee was originally intended to assess the different viewpoints (stage B), assisted by the interdisciplinary group, which is composed of representatives from the sub-committees (see section 2.1). However, the work on stage A took up most of the resources and left less time for stage B than planned. Therefore, in this report, the planned assessment has been reduced to chapter 9 "Discussion and perspectives".

-with several viewpoints

The dynamic perception of the work process was supported in stage A by working with different viewpoints. Five main viewpoints on organic farming in Denmark were used:

A.1 Farming, input and yield in different production systems

A.2 Production, economics and employment

A.3 Environmental and health-related aspects

A.4 Local and institutional aspects

A.5 Legal aspects.

These five viewpoints were chosen partly to ensure that the main and, in some cases, conflicting views on organic farming were represented and partly because of the existing structure of the Bichel Committee. The five viewpoints are dealt with in separate chapters of this report. The references for the chapters in question are: the Sub-committee on Agriculture for chapter 5 (A.1), the Sub-committee on Production, Economics and Employment for chapter 7 (A.2), the Sub-committee on Environment and Health for chapter 6 (A.3) and the Sub-committee on Legislation for chapter 8 (A.5).

As part of stage A in the work process, the following background reports were prepared:

The background reports

Agriculture

A.1.1 Denmark’s total production and input of ancillaries at 0 and 15-25% import of feed with present livestock production

Hugo Fjelsted Alrøe, Erik Steen Kristensen and Birgitte Hansen, DARCOF.

A.1.2 Crop rotation models – evaluation of changes in yield in agricultural crops

Hugo Fjelsted Alrøe, DARCOF, Ib Sillebak Kristensen, Gunnar Mikkelsen, Lise Nistrup Jørgensen, DJF (Danish Institute of Agricultural Sciences), Michael Tersbøl, Agricultural Advisory Service.

A.1.3 Production of open-grown vegetables

Kristian Thorup-Kristensen and Lis Sørensen, DJF

A.1.4 Feed consumption, production and production conditions in organic farming systems

John E. Hermansen, Lisbeth Mogensen & Troels Kristensen, DJF

A.1.5 Production of fruit and berries

Hanne Lindhard and Holger Daugaard, DJF

A.1.6 The supply of phosphorus, potassium and sulphur in organic farming

Jens Færge and Jakob Magid, KVL (The Royal Vetinerary and Agricultural University)

Production, economics and employment

A.2.1 Market perspectives for organic food products

Bolette Abrahamsen & Jan Holm Ingemann, Aalborg University

A.2.2 Economic valuation of environmental improvements with organic farming

Alex Dubgaard, Christian Beckmann & Kristian Lykke Fick, KVL

A.2.3 Analysis of the socioeconomic consequences of restructuring Danish agriculture for organic production

Lars Bo Jacobsen & Søren Frandsen, SJFI (Danish Institute of Agricultural and Fisheries Economics)

A.2.4 Comparison of the economy of organic, pesticide-free production and conventional production

Pia Strunge Folkmann, SJFI

A.2.5 Restructuring for organic production - the possibilities up to the year 2008.

Pia Strunge Folkmann, SJFI

Environmental and health-related consequences

A.3.1 Nitrogen and phosphorous – balances and environmental consequences

Ruth Grant, DMU (National Environmental Research Institute)

A.3.2 Consumption of fossil energy and greenhouse gas emission

Tommy Dalgaard, Niels Halberg, DJF, & Jes Fenger, DMU

A.3.3 The natural content of the agricultural landscape and dependence on form of production

Jens Reddersen, DMU

A.3.4 The soil’s biology

Jørgen Aagaard Axelsen, DMU, Susanne Elmholt, DJF

A.3.5 Health consequences of plant products

Kirsten Brandt, DJF, Niels Elmegaard, DMU, Lars Ovesen, Danish Veterinary and Food Directorate, and Vagn Gundersen, Risø

A.3.6 Consumption of medicine and similar – environmental and health consequences

Torben Bennedsgaard & Stig Milan Thamsborg, KVL, John Jensen, DMU, & Frank Aarestrup, SVS (National Veterinary Serum Institute)

Local and institutional aspects

A.4.1 Local and institutional aspects

Johannes Michelsen, University of South Denmark, & Per Kølster

A.4.2 Decision-making principles and institutional perspectives

Jan Holm Ingemann, Aalborg University

A.4.3 Danish agriculture’s institutional network and its potential for organic restructuring

Jan Holm Ingemann, Aalborg University

Legal aspects

A.5 Legal questions concerning a total restructuring of Danish agriculture for organic production

The Sub-committee on Legislation under the Bichel Committee.

- can be ordered

These background reports have been studied and discussed in the respective sub-committees. They can be ordered from the Danish Environmental Protection Agency. For the sake of good order it should be noted that the views presented in the background reports are not necessarily those of the Bichel Committee or its sub-committees. The interdisciplinary group has used the background reports as the basis for this report on the consequences of restructuring the agricultural sector for 100% organic production.

4.2 Method

In order to draw up scenarios as a basis for assessing the consequences of totally restructuring Danish agriculture for organic production, two important methodological choices had to be made. Firstly, the goal for the scenarios had to be chosen: 100% organic production in the agricultural sector and, secondly, a base situation with which the goal could be compared.

The scenarios drawn up can be described as consistent calculations based on the available knowledge concerning agriculture today. In addition, the scenarios are based on a number of assumptions that make them scenarios for 100% organic agriculture.

A range of options -

As described above, there is no absolutely clear picture of how a 100% organic agricultural sector might look. The scenarios therefore had to represent a range of options for a future, totally organic agricultural sector. The scenarios differ from each other mainly with respect to the level of import of feed, resulting in differences in nutrient and energy turnover that have consequences for production, the environment and the economy.

Although with the focus on the constraints

The chosen scenarios represent mainly the changes that can be predicted today on the basis of the constraints inherent in 100% organic farming as a consequence of an expected fall in the level of production. It has not, on the other hand, been possible to represent to the same extent the possibilities that lie in total restructuring because they depend to a great extent on innovations. However, account has been taken of possibilities for an improved yield in cereals and grass as a consequence of greater focus on cereal production and better utilisation of pastureland than in present organic practice because of a lower yield from each dairy cow.

A total switch to organic farming is such a drastic change that it must be expected to lead to significant adjustments and innovations that are not included in the scenarios analysed in the following. That applies particularly to the parts of the food sector that supply, purchase, process and distribute the food products. However, these areas and the possible effect on them of a 100% switch to organic farming lie outside the sub-committee’s mandate and are therefore not dealt with in detail in this report. The scenarios are based on present-day practice and knowledge and cast light on the consequences of a 100% switch to organic farming on that basis. They can thus not be regarded as forecasts of a probable development.

Comparison with present-day farming

Furthermore, in order to describe the consequences of a 100% switch to organic farming, it is necessary to have a base with which the future scenarios can be compared. The base chosen is farming today, i.e. 1995/96. However, for yield levels in crops a longer period has been chosen – 1993-96. The year 1995/96 has been chosen in order to have a consistent and coherent database and having regard to the basis for the assessment of the consequences of phasing out the use of pesticides.

- although this is changing

The scenarios describe a situation 10 or 30 years hence, so a comparison with 1995/96 can be objected to on the grounds that Danish farming will look entirely different in 10 or 30 years’ time. Farming is changing all the time – a number of changes are expected in the very near future and changes have also occurred since 1996, including continued restructuring for organic production. These changes are mentioned where relevant and included wherever possible. However, it is important to note that changes and measures coming now or in future in the Danish agricultural sector will also have derivative – and in many cases unknown – effects. For example, when, as planned, Danish farmers phase out the use of growth promoters in 1999, that must be expected also to have consequences for production. Similarly, changes in both national and international agricultural policy will affect the development of both conventional and organic farming, but it has not been possible to include such perspectives to any great extent in the sub-committee’s work.

- because a coherent basis for comparison is needed

Actual, coherent and consistent scenarios for a future Danish agricultural sector have only been prepared in a few, limited areas, such as Aquatic Environment Plan II and the scenarios for phasing out the use of pesticides. These scenarios are included as the basis for comparison in the areas covered by the scenarios. Other, individual, expected changes cannot be included directly in a comparison with the scenarios because a complete picture of the consequences of these changes is lacking. The effects of phasing out the use of pesticides are described in detail in the other reports from the Bichel Committee. The present report should be seen as a supplement to those reports.

In the following chapters a picture is given of the consequences of a total switch to organic farming on the basis of different levels of feed import and different yield levels, as described above.

A detailed description of the scenarios and the assumptions on which they are based are given in chapter 5, together with the consequences for plant and livestock production.

Chapter 6 describes the environmental and health consequences, and chapter 7 the economic consequences, on the basis of the scenarios described in chapter 5. The legal aspects of restructuring for organic farming are discussed in chapter 8, including the relationship with EU legislation.

In chapter 9 the various aspects covered by the foregoing chapters are weighed, the chosen assumptions are discussed, and the possibilities for and barriers to achievement of a totally organic agricultural sector are described.

5. Agricultural consequences

The time horizon of the organic scenarios is 30 years

We have attempted to clarify the consequences for overall production with 100% organic farming by means of a number of scenarios that differ with respect to the quantity of imported feed and crop yield levels. A time horizon of 30 years has been chosen for the scenarios because it is thought that extensive structural changes will be needed, partly as a consequence of an assumption that the manure produced can be evenly distributed over the whole of the country and partly as a consequence of changed livestock housing systems. For an even distribution of manure and utilisation of the clover grass acreage, livestock production must be evenly distributed over the entire agricultural area. With the present, heavy concentration of livestock production in Western Denmark, extensive "deregionalisation" of Danish livestock production is assumed in connection with the restructuring for organic production. In the economic analyses for the 30-year scenarios (chapter 7), it is assumed that the return of livestock to Eastern Denmark takes place as the surplus livestock housing capacity wears out in the western parts of the country. Therefore, the economic analyses do not include costs in the form of "scrapping" of housing capacity in connection with the deregionalisation.

According to the current rules on organic farming, organic farms must purchase conventional feed in quantities corresponding to 15-25% of the animals' daily feed intake (measured as the energy in the feed), and a certain percentage of conventional manure. In a 100% organic Denmark, there would be no conventional farms from which to purchase manure or feed, although it would be possible to import both organic and conventional feed. Three levels of feed imports to Denmark are used in the scenarios:

- and two yield levels

The scenarios use two different yield levels in the main crops, i.e., cereals and grass. The yields achieved at organic dairy farms in the period 1993-96 are the basis for: "Present level of yield". Also used is an "Improved level of yield" (+15% in cereals and +10% in clover grass). In cereals, the reason for the improvement is more targeted action to increase cereal production in relation to present practice. In clover grass, the improvement is due to better utilisation of pastureland, which is possible because a low yield from each dairy cow is accepted. The chosen levels of yield are described in detail in section 5.2 and in Alrøe et al. (1998b).

The three levels of feed import and two yield levels are expressed in six different organic scenarios:

Six scenarios in all

In all scenarios, the production of milk and eggs corresponds to present production. The production of milk is limited by milk quotas and could be greater without causing agronomic difficulties. Beef is produced in relation to the number of dairy cows, in the form of cast cows, heifers and bullocks, the male animals being fattened like bullocks with summer grazing (section 5.3.1). The remaining feed is used in producing pork, since meat from poultry is included in the model as pork. The production of pork therefore varies in proportion to the produced and imported quantities of feed, and no plant products are exported in the scenarios. The production of pigs and bullocks is assumed to be as big as possible in relation to feed production and feed import in scenarios with limited feed import. As mentioned in section 4.2, these scenario assumptions have been made with a view to clarifying constraints and possibilities and must not be taken as a forecast of a probable development in practice.

Other assumptions

Production in greenhouses and the production of ornamental plants, etc., (a total of about 4,000 ha), as well as the production of fur-bearing animals, are not included in the scenarios. The assumptions and constraints of the scenarios are described in more detail in Alrøe et al. (1998a).

The scenarios describe the expected production with the chosen assumptions on the basis of the available empirical knowledge. The relationship between the choices made and their consequences are discussed in chapter 9. Section 5.1 below gives a complete picture of agricultural production in the six scenarios compared with actual agricultural production in Denmark in 1996, and a detailed description of plant and livestock production is given in sections 5.2 and 5.3.

The possibilities and problems in organic production of open-grown vegetables and fruit and berries are dealt with separately in sections 5.4 and 5.5, while section 5.6 gives a picture of organic production in forestry. Section 5.7 gives a combined discussion of the nutrient balances in the organic scenarios.

5.1 Total agricultural production

In organic farming, there are more limits to what can be grown in the way of different crops than there are in conventional farming. There must be a considerable proportion of nitrogen-fixating crops and the crop rotations must be diversified and include perennial crops. Land use in the scenarios differs considerably from present-day use. Table 5.1 shows the use of the entire cultivated area in the six organic scenarios, compared with the use in Danish agriculture in 1996.

The total production of primary agricultural products in the six organic scenarios is shown in table 5.2, compared with agricultural production in 1996.

Table 5.1
The use of the entire area under cultivation (1,000 ha) in Danish agriculture 1996 and in the organic scenarios (Danmarks Statistik 1997, Alrøe et al. 1998a)

It will be seen that, here, clover grass accounts for two of five rotations or 40% of the crop rotation. In practice, clover grass’s share usually lies between 30 and 50%. On good cereal soil (clayey soil), one or two rotations with cereal or row-grown crops may be added, and on slightly poorer cereal soil (sandy soil), the last rotation with cereal or row-grown crops may be removed. This five-field rotation is the basis for the model on which the organic scenarios are based.

5.2.1 The empirical basis

The empirical basis for an assessment of the level of yield in agricultural crops with 100% organic farming in Denmark comprises data from different types of studies and experiments, including data from farm studies, from production or crop rotation systems at research stations, from annual reports of field trials and from accounting statistics. To be able to give the best possible estimate of the level of yield that could be expected with 100% restructuring for organic farming, it is important to assess the background for the different types of data (Alrøe et al. 1998b).

The different types of data each have their strong and weak sides. Data from privately owned farms tell something about the levels of yield that are achieved in practice, but without data from a substantial proportion of all types of farm, it is difficult to use those data to say anything about the general level of yield. Farm studies are useful because they provide detailed information on the farms in question that can be used to assess the measured yields as a basis for saying something about the expected yield level at farms like those in the studies. However, the extensive registration needed limits the number of farms that can be studied and thus the possibility of generalising the results. Data from research stations are even more detailed than the data from the farm studies so even fewer farms are covered. Research stations necessarily differ somewhat from the average farm in practice in several ways, including having the possibility of almost optimum farm management and fewer limitations on manpower etc.

From an analysis of the empirical data it has been found that the best basis for calculating the expected yields with 100% organic farming in Denmark is provided by the studies of dairy farms carried out at the Danish Institute of Agricultural Sciences in the years 1989-1997 (Alrøe et al. 1998b). The studies are based on data recorded at 30-40 organic and conventional dairy farms, distributed over the whole country.

5.2.2 Yields

A detailed analysis of crop yields at dairy farms was carried out for the years 1989 to 1993 (Halberg & Kristensen 1997), in which the expected yields for cereals, grass and beets were calculated using a model for the potential yield level. The crop rotation at the farms in question included, on average, 40% clover grass, which is in accordance with the crop rotation used in the organic scenarios. Winter cereals were grown on one fifth of the acreage used for cereals and, on average, 90 kg total-N in the form of manure was applied during the crop rotation.

After adjustment for annual variations, the yields from the farms studied were found to accord with the available yield figures from the accounting statistics from organic farms in the harvest year 1996 (Danish Institute of Agricultural and Fisheries Economics, 1998). The other empirical data did not provide a basis for a different yield level, and the expected yields given in Halberg & Kristensen (1997), adjusted for the reference years 1993-96, are used in the organic scenarios as present yield level (table 5.4).

Besides the present yield level, which is primarily based on organic farms as they look today, the scenarios also include an improved yield level since there is good reason to assume a potential for a higher yield that is not fully expressed in the existing empirical data since present practice is dominated by farms focusing on milk production. With 100% organic farming, there would be considerably greater focus on growing feed grain. This is deemed to provide a basis for improved cereal cultivation practice and a higher yield in cereals, in line with the difference in conventional farming between dairy farms and pig and arable farms. There would be a possibility of an increased proportion of winter cereals, increased use of intercropping, improved fertilisation and sowing techniques and improved weed control. (Alrøe et al. 1998b)

In the case of clover grass, it is known from several studies in Denmark and elsewhere that, in grazing conditions, there is a close relationship between a pasture’s net yield and the milk yield. The higher the milk yield, the lower the net yield in the pasture (Alrøe et al. 1998b). The average milk yield is 4 to 12% lower in the scenarios than in present organic practice and lowest in scenarios with improved yield level because of a lower percentage of bought-in protein feed (see section 5.3).

Table 5.4
Expected yield in cereals, beets and grass for three different types of soil and at national level with present and improved practice (Alrøe et al. 1998b)

One crop unit (cu) equals 100 feed units (FU)

In the organic scenarios, peas are grown as well as cereals, beets and clover grass. The peas are assumed to be largely produced mixed with cereals and with the same yield level (f.u./ha) as cereals because the data on which the expected cereal yields are based include a considerable proportion of pulses (Alrøe et al. 1998b). Furthermore, rape is produced in the two scenarios without import of feed. Experience in growing organic rape is limited, but, here, a yield of 23 hkg/ha is assumed, as in Mikkelsen et al. 1998.

5.2.3 Fertiliser

As mentioned in the introduction, the number of animals and thus also fertiliser production vary in the various organic scenarios. The fertiliser produced is distributed according to a fertilisation plan corresponding to the empirical basis for the expected yields and fertilisation standards for organic farming. However, clover grass does not receive animal manure in the scenarios, thereby differing from the empirical basis. That could affect the clover grass’s supply of potassium, but it is assumed here that the yields in clover grass can be maintained despite this difference. However, there is considerable uncertainty in the case of light soil, where potassium could cause problems in the cultivation of clover, and that in turn will cause problems with nitrogen fixation (see discussion of this in Færge & Magid 1998 and section 5.7).

Fertilisation in cereals varies in the scenarios, all depending on whether there is a shortfall or surplus of fertiliser in relation to the fertilisation plan. The cereal yields in the scenarios have therefore been adjusted in relation to the expected yields in table 5.4, with a yield response of 12 kg grain per kg total-N, based on Askegaard and Eriksen (1997). The relationship between fertiliser production and cereal yields is shown in table 5.5.

Table 5.5
Fertiliser production and need for fertiliser (total-N) according to the fertilisation plan and expected fertilisation and yields in cereals in the organic scenarios (Alrøe et al. 1998a)

5.2.4 Seed for drilling

85-90% of all grain seed is dressed today, as is a large proportion of other crops in Denmark. If dressing were generally omitted, we would expect rapid proliferation of several of the most significant seed-borne diseases. The problem would be worst in cereals, and there could also be substantial losses in beets. Seed-borne diseases are deemed to be of less importance for peas and rape.

Today, research is in progress on several alternative methods of combating seed-borne diseases, including use of resistant varieties, use of biological products and mechanical methods. None of these methods has been fully developed and major R&D work must be done before we can assess whether or not these methods could replace the chemical products. Continued seed dressing of the first generations of cereals, followed by a need assessment of subsequent consignments of seed would be one way of considerably reducing the use of fungicides (Danish Environmental Protection Agency 1999a).

It is assumed in the scenarios that seed-borne diseases are controlled to the extent needed, using the organically most acceptable products.

5.3 Livestock production systems

Organic livestock farming differs in several ways from conventional livestock farming. Here, we will look at the relationship between feed consumption, production and production conditions in organic production systems. As mentioned in the introduction, in order to simplify the model, the present production of poultry is included as pork production in the organic scenarios.

Manure is a limited resource in the organic scenarios and is therefore assumed to be available where needed. Owing to the constraints of organic crop rotations (cf. section 5.2) and the limited possibility of transporting manure in a 100% organic Denmark, livestock farming must be assumed to be more evenly distributed over the country than it is today.

In conventional farming, livestock production systems vary greatly, from intensive housing systems with totally slatted floors to free-range sows and free-range hens. Organic livestock farming lies at one end of this spectrum, requiring outdoor areas for all animals. There are also special requirements concerning the composition of the feed, a higher weaning age for piglets, etc. It is also necessary to retain as much of the manure’s nutrients as possible in the construction of housing systems and the handling of fertiliser and during grazing.

The relationship between feed, production systems and the production of animal products and fertiliser is described on the basis of the available data, which differ somewhat for the various forms of production. For example, there is only limited experience with organic pig farming and egg production, but considerable empirical data for assessing the relationship between feeding and production in organic milk production (Hermansen et al. 1998).

5.3.1 Production of organic milk and beef

In the organic scenarios, we operate with three different feed plans for cows, which result in three different milk yields. Two of the feed plans are without bought-in supplementary feed, one without and one with beets, and a feed plan that is optimised by buying in feed. The relationship between annual milk yield per cow (delivered ex farm), meat production and feed plans is shown in table 5.6. The optimised feed ration gives a milk yield of 6,500 kg energy-adjusted milk (EAM), which is close to the yield level seen in practice. The milk yield in the organic scenarios lies between 5,900 and 6,200 kg EAM in scenarios with present yield level and between 5,700 and 6,000 kg EAM in scenarios with improved yield level, lowest in scenarios with smallest import (Alrøe et al. 1998a). In conventional dairy farming, feed and yield level are slightly higher than in "optimised" in table 5.6. At the same time, the proportion of pasture feed (Agricultural Advisory Service 1998) is somewhat lower in organic farming today. That means that the milk yield per cow in the organic scenarios is about 10-15% lower than in Danish farming today, and the proportion of pasture feed is considerably higher. Conversely, the number of dairy cows is 10-15% higher than today.

Table 5.6
Feed consumption for cows (incl. 1.03 year cows and 1 bullock^a) in three different feed plans, with annual milk yield per cow (ex farm) and meat production (Alrøe et al. 1998a, based on Hermansen et al. 1998)

5.5.2 Handling of pests and pathogens

Fungal diseases can be avoided to some extent through choice of varieties and breeding for resistance, but there can be problems with the taste, storage and shelf life and consumer preferences. There are a number of more or less resistant varieties, both new and old, on the market today, but only limited data are available on the yields in resistant varieties grown organically or unsprayed. Some of these varieties are also rather sensitive to pests.

In a trial with 10 different scab-resistant varieties of apple planted in 1994, the first real yield came in 1997. In that year, the trees yielded an average of 11.6 tonnes per ha. Quite a few of the fruit had scab, indicating that the scab resistance is not absolute or is being degraded. 25% of the fruit had been attacked by pests. Breeding woody cultures takes a long time and it is therefore more difficult to produced new, resistant varieties of fruit and berries than of other crops, and there may also be a problem in keeping up with the degradation of resistance. The long culture time and big establishment costs are other obstacles to introducing new varieties in practice. In this connection, strawberries are more like vegetables (Lindhard & Daugaard 1998).

Under the present Danish rules, sulphur may be used as spray product in organic fruit and berries, while the EU rules also allow spraying with copper. Copper must not be used in organic cultivation in Denmark. Sulphur is less effective against scab and has an undesirable effect on useful animals in the orchard. Fungal diseases cannot be combated only by cultivation methods, but the level of the diseases can be reduced by keeping the trees small and open and removing fallen leaves or digging them down.

Not much research is going on within organic methods of preventing pests in organic fruit growing in Denmark, but methods developed within integrated production could perhaps be used in organic production units. The use of pesticides that are gentle on useful animals has thus largely eliminated the problem of spider mites in apples.

5.5.3 Apples and pears

Studies of the present production of organic apples show a very low level of yield compared with conventional production. For pears, the reduction is not quite as big. The problems are not due to fertilisation or weeds. These problems can be countered with the existing methods with use of extra manpower and continued development of the methods. The biggest problem is fungal diseases. The only way to handle fungal diseases is to breed resistant varieties.

In other countries, organic production of pomes goes much better than in Denmark. One of the reasons for this is that producers in almost all other countries are allowed to use copper in the production. Countries with a drier climate than Denmark – for example, Argentina and some states in the USA, do not have serious problems with apple scab. That gives these countries a major competitive advantage (Lindhard & Daugaard 1998).

5.5.4 Berries

There is at present very little production of sour cherries. That may be due to technical problems in supplying sufficient nitrogen, problems with fungi and appropriate weed control. More research in this area could presumably solve these problems. On the face of it, it should be easier to switch to organic production than in the case of pomes because the fruit goes to industrial processors and therefore does not have to meet the same high quality requirements as fruit for direct consumption.

The biggest problem in blackcurrant production is general attack by the viral disease reversion, which is transmitted by blackcurrant bud gall mites. Breeders in Scotland are at present working towards resistant varieties with a usable quality of juice. The biggest technical problems in blackcurrant production are the supply of sufficient nitrogen and effective weed control. These problems are now being studied in a research project at Årslev Research Centre. However, as long as producers can charge a 300 per cent higher price than the traditional prices, they will continue to find organic blackcurrant production a paying proposition. This can be seen from the relatively large number of newcomers to blackcurrant production.

The acreage used for organic production of strawberries is relatively small even though there are no major technical problems. Methods for organic production have been developed and there are also resistant varieties. However, many growers may not yet be aware of that. In addition, the varieties that are resistant to pests and pathogens and that are suitable for organic production, are not suitable for retail sale because they have a relatively short shelf life. Organically grown strawberries must therefore be sold quickly and preferably locally (Lindhard & Daugaard 1998).

5.6 Forestry

It is difficult to use and transfer the rules for organic production of agricultural and horticultural products to the forestry sector because the time horizon and the production period within forestry are very long – from about 10 to 150 years – with continuous value growth throughout the production period. We shall therefore focus in the following on the consequences of the fact that artificial fertilisers and pesticides must not be used in organic production.

5.6.1 Timber production

In most cultivation systems for timber production, neither artificial fertiliser nor manure is used. Large quantities of nutrients are not removed during harvesting, and it is therefore rare today to supply nutrients from outside. They may be supplied to improve vitality and health, particularly in types of soil in Central and West Jutland, which is short of nutrients. In some cases, artificial fertiliser is used for some years before cutting because supplying nutrients can be financially beneficial.

The situation is approximately the same in the case of afforestation. Before planting, the land will normally have been used for ordinary farming, and the soil will therefore contain sufficient nutrients for the new plants to establish themselves and grow well. In the course of some years, conditions become as in ordinary forestry, where – as mentioned above, fertiliser is not normally used.

There is very little need for plant protection in forestry compared with other agricultural sectors. Prohibiting the use of pesticides would particularly give rise to problems with national monuments in old forest areas. Owing to the nature of the land, there is usually little possibility of mechanical weed control. In addition, pests can cause serious problems. After some years’ growth, the culture is able to cope on its own, and pesticides are not used in the following 50-150 years. The phasing out of the use of pesticides would mean a considerably longer culture phase, incomplete cultures and increased costs for replanting, resulting in poorer economy and a different composition of forests. Unlike replanting in forests, afforestation offers good possibilities of mechanical prevention and control of weeds (Østergård 1998).

5.6.2 Ornamental greenery

The acreage used for Christmas trees (Norman fir) totals about 21,000 ha, whereas ornamental greenery covers about 17,000 ha (Østergård 1998). In the production of ornamental greenery and Christmas trees, unlike timber production, large quantities of nutrients are removed in the harvest phase. It is therefore necessary to supply nutrients to the soil in this type of production. Nowadays, the nutrients are supplied via fertilisation. However, it is quite common not to fertilise for the first 3-4 years after planting and then to use a mixed fertiliser every year. Trials have been carried out with manure, but manure is not widely used, and the technical problems of getting it to where it is needed and applying it, together with odour problems, have not been solved.

Greater use is made of pesticides in the production of ornamental greenery than in other forms of forestry. Owing to the market’s high quality requirements, a total ban on the use of pesticides in the next few years is expected to ruin the production of ornamental greenery. In the longer term, cultivation methods might be developed that would enable producers to do without herbicides, but insect attack would still be a very serious threat to the financial viability of the production. A detailed discussion of the consequences is given in Østergård (1998).

In 1996, Christmas trees were grown organically on 145 ha land, and action is now being taken to encourage the production of organic ornamental greenery (Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries 1998). However, in view of the foregoing it can be concluded that it will be difficult to get a larger organic production of Christmas trees and ornamental greenery going, and extensive development work is needed.

5.7 Nutrient balances

This section contains a discussion of 100% organic farming from an agronomic angle. The environmental aspects are discussed in section 6.1.

Table 5.10 shows the overall balance with respect to nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) in Danish agriculture in 1995/96 and in the organic scenarios as described at the beginning of this chapter. The nutrient balance is given partly as the total surplus and partly as the average surplus distributed over all agricultural land. The balance is calculated on the basis of the total supplies to agriculture in the form of fertiliser, bought-in feed, return products and waste from the rest of society and atmospheric deposition, and the total losses in the form of vegetable and animal products. The content of nutrients is assumed to be the same in conventional and organic products. Particularly in the case of nitrogen, an estimate is included for fixation in the soil as a supply to agriculture in the balances.

In the following tables, sludge and waste are only included in the nutrient balances for present production and not in the balances for the organic scenarios because the current rules for organic farming do not permit the use of wastewater sludge. However, both today and in the longer term, there is a possibility of organically acceptable recirculation of nutrients from urban communities to agricultural land. The potential for recirculation is discussed in detail at the end of this chapter.

Table 5.10
National balances for nutrients to and from agriculture per year in 1995/96 and in the organic scenarios, total and per ha of the total agricultural acreage (Grant 1998)

The national balance for agriculture expresses a total figure for changes in the soil pool and losses to water and the atmosphere. Within this total figure there can be dynamic relationships that are not expressed in the balance. In the long term, the balance of nutrients should be positive in order to maintain the yields. The nutrient balances and the relationships that are not included in the national balance are described in greater detail below.

The agronomic problems of supplying crops with nutrients cannot be treated in detail here. It should, however, be mentioned that there is a dynamic balance in the soil between nutrients in an accessible form for plants and an inaccessible form, with the balance and the rate at which the substances can be made accessible depending on many factors, including both the ability of different types of soil to release the substances and the ability of different species and varieties of plant to utilise nutrients in the soil. Furthermore, the time the substances are accessible and the balance between the nutrients are of vital importance to the crops’ growth.

5.7.1 Nitrogen

Table 5.11 gives more detailed figures for the nitrogen balance in Danish agriculture in 1995/96 as it is expected to be after full implementation of Aquatic Environment Plan II (AEP II) and in the organic scenarios, where the estimates used for atmospheric deposition and fixation are given. Nitrogen fixation is the biggest contributor of nitrogen in the organic scenarios, while fertiliser and feed are the main sources in present production.

Table 5.11
Nitrogen balances for agriculture (mill. kg per year) (Grant 1998)

Phosphorus is not generally expected to be a yield-limiting factor within a 30-50-year time horizon because of large reserves of phosphorus in the soil. Phosphorus will have to be supplied to soils with a low phosphorus number in the form of raw phosphate or through recirculation. Raw phosphate is a limited resource, and adding it would involve a risk of undesirable substances being supplied. Today, 5.7 mill. kg of phosphorus is recirculated in the form of sludge and waste, and this potential is not taken into account in the balances for the organic scenarios in table 5.12 (see also section 5.7.5 on recirculation). Distributed over the 5-10% of the land with low phosphorus numbers, this potential corresponds to a supply of 20-40 kg P/ha per year.

5.7.3 Potassium

The content of potassium in Danish soil varies considerably with the mineralogy, weathering and leaching. For most of the last 100 years, Danish agricultural land has received a surplus of potassium, which has increased the soil’s content of easily accessible potassium. In many sandy soils, however, the content of easily accessible potassium is low, despite a plentiful supply of manure. The reason for the low content is probably leaching. 50% of soils in West Jutland thus have a potassium number (Kt) of less than 8 (Færge & Magid 1998).

The nutrient balances for potassium (table 5.13) show a small deficit to a moderate surplus in the organic scenarios. There is then some loss in the form of leaching (see below). As mentioned earlier, in the longer term, a deficit on the nutrient balances in the soil should be countered by adding potassium. The effect of leaching on the nutrient balances is dealt with at the end of this section, but first we must determine whether the assumptions for the organic scenarios warrant a supply of potassium. It is thus assumed in the scenarios that differences with respect to potassium between the empirical basis and the organic scenarios do not give cause to change the expected yields (cf. section 5.2).

At the organic dairy farms included in the empirical basis for the yields in the organic scenarios, manure corresponding to 66 kg K/ha per year is allocated to clover grass and lucerne in rotation (Kristensen & Halberg 1995), whereas the clover grass fields in the scenarios do not receive manure. In the organic scenarios it is assumed, with the focus on nitrogen, that this difference does not make it necessary to reduce the expected yields. It can rightly be discussed whether this assumption holds good when potassium is included. The potassium balance at dairy farms was 33 kg K/ha per year. Compared with the balances in the organic scenarios (tables 5.10 and 5.13), this gives a difference of 26-37 kg K/ha, which can be countered by a total supply of 60-100 mill. kg K per year nationally, with the biggest need in the 0-import scenarios. (See also Færge & Magid 1998.)

Table 5.13
Potassium balances for the agricultural sector (mill. kg/year) without a supply of potassium fertiliser in the organic scenarios (Grant 1998, Eriksen et al. 1995, Kyllingsbæk personal communication).

The effect of leaching of potassium on the potassium balance in the soil has also been investigated. In the soil, potassium reacts with the soil’s clay minerals, and in soils with some content of clay, high concentrations of potassium will therefore become fixated in the soil. In sandy and peaty soil with a low content of clay, on the other hand, surplus potassium must be expected to result in leaching. The leaching of potassium from well fertilised soils in present practice is estimated to be 5-30 kg K/ha per year in different types of soil with different clay contents (Eriksen et al. 1995), which gives a weighted national average of about 20 kg/ha per year. That corresponds to total leaching from the entire acreage of the order of 50 mill. kg K per year, and thus, in extension of the balances in table 5.13, a total deficit of 30-60 mill. kg. on the potassium balance.

The large pool of potassium in clayey soils means that some potassium deficit can be tolerated, even on a very long-term basis, if sufficient potassium can be released from the more strongly bound fractions to make up the deficit. However, a potassium deficit cannot be tolerated in coarse, sandy soil. The leaching depends not only on the type of soil but also on fertilisation practice and crop rotation. Ongoing studies in an organic cultivation system with potassium balance on good sandy soil thus shows very limited leaching of potassium (Askegaard et al. 1999).

A supply of the order of 60-100 mill. kg would thus more than make up for the total deficit on the potassium balance, including estimated leaching of 20 kg K/ha/year, so the yields could be maintained in the long term.

5.7.4 Sulphur

Owing to decreasing atmospheric deposition, there may be reason to look at the balance of sulphur as well. From a surplus of 6 kg S/ha per year in the 1970s, there was a deficit of 16 kg S/ha per year in 1989. However, there would be less need for sulphur in the organic scenarios because shortage of sulphur depends on the relationship between nitrogen and sulphur, and there is far less nitrogen circulating in the organic scenarios. However, fertiliser with sulphur in rape and a few types of vegetables may be necessary, particularly on sandy soil (Færge & Magid 1998).

5.7.5 Recirculation of nutrients from urban societies

Nutrients are lost from the agricultural sector in the form of plant and animal products through loss to air and water. To maintain the nutrient balance, it will be necessary in the longer term to make up for this loss. Nutrients can be supplied in the form of feed, mineral and organic fertiliser and, particularly in the case of nitrogen, biological fixation. The sources of nutrients are transfer from other ecosystems, including farming, extraction from soil, water and air and recirculation from the rest of society. In the following we take a look at the potential for recirculation of nutrients from urban communities.

Today, many nutrients end up in various forms of waste, and the waste is collected and processed for many other purposes than recirculation of nutrients. The risk of supplying undesirable substances is therefore a considerable obstacle to recirculation of nutrients to agricultural land. Large amounts of potassium and sulphur end up in the aquatic environment because these nutrients, unlike phosphorus and nitrogen, are not deemed to constitute a problem for the environment.

The main sources for recirculation today are wastewater sludge, domestic waste and organic residuals from industry (table 5.14). Just under 70% of the total amount of wastewater sludge was supplied to farmland in 1996. This proportion has been falling since 1994 and is expected to continue falling for a variety of reasons, including stricter limit values for undesirable constituents. Less than 10% of compost and garden waste went to industrial agriculture in 1996 because these sources were primarily used in private gardens and public parks. More than 95% of the organic residuals from industry went back to farms as feed and fertiliser in 1996 (Eilersen et al. 1998).

Table 5.14
Quantities of organic waste (mill. kg. per year) used as fertiliser in the agricultural sector in 1996 (Eilersen et al. 1998, Danish Environmental Protection Agency 1998a, 1998b)

The total quantity of sludge and waste supplied to the agricultural sector in 1995/96 corresponds to 9.1 mill. kg N, 5.0 mill. kg P and 4.7 mill. kg K (Grant 1998). Under the current rules, wastewater sludge must not be used in organic production, and neither sludge nor waste is included in the organic scenarios. That means that there is a direct, unutilised potential for recirculation in the scenarios in the form of organic domestic waste and residuals from industry – and in the slightly longer term, human urine and fæces, which are today collected in wastewater sludge, are a possible source. However, the use of fæces in crops for human consumption should be avoided because of the risk of transmission of diseases. Separately collected human urine is of particular interest in organic farming as a high quality fertiliser for crops needing easily accessible nutrients, such as vegetables. Table 5.15 shows the potential sources for recirculation in the organic scenarios. Garden waste etc. is not included because, today, this is mainly used in private gardens and public parks.

In the organic scenarios, the potential quantities of waste from some of the agricultural sector’s secondary industries must be assumed to fall as a consequence of falling production. From calculations of the quantity of organic waste from different types of industry (Andreasen et. al. in prep.), it is estimated that the quantity of solids would halve if the fall in production fed right through in the secondary industries. The quantity of phosphorus and nitrogen would presumably fall less because the two largest contributors, accounting for about half of the total quantity, are not affected by the restructuring (Danish Environmental Protection Agency 1998a). The quantity of nutrients from the different sources in 5.15 can be compared with the balances in tables 5.11 to 5.13.

Table 5.15
Potential sources of recirculation of organic waste in a 100% organic agricultural sector (mill. kg per year) (Eilersen et al. 1998, Andreasen et al in prep., Danish Environmental Protection Agency 1998a)

5.8 Summary and conclusion

A total restructuring for organic agriculture in Denmark could generally be implemented, but at a lower level of production than today. However, the expected consequences for the agricultural sector would depend on the form of 100% organic production.

The time horizon of the scenarios is 30 years

To provide a basis for assessing the consequences of a total restructuring for organic production in Denmark, various scenarios have been set up for 100% organic agriculture with a time horizon of 30 years. This number of years has been chosen because of the extensive structural changes that would be needed. It is assumed that there would be an even distribution of manure and that the clover grass acreage would be used for grazing, which would in turn require a more even distribution of livestock production over the entire agricultural acreage. Extensive "deregionalisation" of Danish livestock production is thus assumed in connection with the restructuring for organic production. In the financial analyses (chapter 7), it is similarly assumed that the return of livestock production to Eastern Denmark would take place as the surplus livestock housing capacity wore out. It is therefore assumed that there would be no costs in the form of "scrapping" of housing capacity in connection with the deregionalisation.

According to the current rules on organic farming, such farms must buy in conventional feed in quantities corresponding to 15-25% of the animals' daily feed intake (measured as the energy in the feed), and a certain percentage of conventional manure. In a 100% organic Denmark, there would be no conventional farms from which to purchase manure or feed, although it would be possible to import both organic and conventional feed. Three levels of feed import to Denmark are used:

Vegetable for domestic consumption are produced in all the scenarios, but no vegetables are exported, in contrast to today's situation, in which the net export of grain accounts for almost one fifth of the harvest and there are significant exports of seeds, sugar and potato starch.

In all scenarios, the production of milk and eggs corresponds to present production. The production of milk is limited by milk quotas and the production of beef is of the same size as today. The production of pork varies in proportion to the produced and imported quantities of feed (poultry is included in the scenarios as pork).

Besides the domestic consumption of animal products, exports of milk products and beef are at the same level as today, whereas exports of pork are unchanged with unlimited import and fall by nearly 40% with 15-25% import of feed and by more than 90% with 0-import.

A further three scenarios have been set up with a level of yield in cereals and clover grass that is 10-15% higher than the present level. In the scenarios with a better level of yield, pork exports fall by only 10% with 15-25% import of feed and by over 70% in the 0-import scenario.

Same production, but other production systems

Except for the export of plant products and pork and the production of special crops, production can be maintained unchanged in all the organic scenarios. However, this level of production is based on greatly changed production systems. Organic farming is based on diversified crop rotations with a considerable proportion of nitrogen-fixating and perennial crops. There is therefore 30-50% clover grass on all soils in the organic scenarios. Manure is a limited resource and is assumed to be evenly distributed from the standpoint of crop rotation. It must therefore be assumed that the livestock would be more evenly distributed in a 100% organic scenario than they are today. There are more dairy cows in the scenarios than in present-day agriculture, with a lower average yield, and bull calves from milk production would be fattened as bullocks. The cows would be kept in a parlour and yard system and put out to grass in the summertime. The sows would be out on grass and the bacon pigs would have access to an outdoor area and straw bedding.

The nitrogen cycle is reduced

The nitrogen cycle is significantly reduced in the organic scenarios, to a level corresponding to Danish agriculture in the 1950s, because nitrogen would not be imported in the form of artificial fertiliser. It would instead be obtained by symbiotic nitrogen fixation in clover grass fields and through importation of feed, but grain production would be limited by nitrogen in all the scenarios.

Necessary to import potassium

The scenarios indicate a number of constraints on a total switch to organic farming. The main constraint is probably that, in all scenarios, it is estimated that it will be necessary to import 60-100 mill. kg. of potassium per year (most in the 0-import scenarios) in order to maintain yields in clover grass at the level of the empirical basis for the scenarios. On coarse sandy soil, potassium leaches easily and has to be added.

- even though there is a potential for recirculation

There is an unexploited potential for recirculation of nutrients from urban communities in the organic scenarios. The quantities are relatively small compared with the need for potassium. Recirculation could, however, play a vital role, e.g. in vegetable production. Besides potassium, it would be necessary to import feed phosphates for the livestock, also in the 0-import scenario, to meet the animals’ needs with the presumably relatively high level of production. That means, on the other hand, that there would be no problems with the nutrient balance for phosphorus.

Import of feed is important to the nutrient balance

To summarise, the loss of phosphorus and potassium through sales products would have to be made up for by a supply to farmland in the form of other mineral fertiliser, recirculation or feed. Nutrient import via feed thus plays an important role in the organic scenarios. As mentioned, present-day rules permit the use of 15% conventional feed for ruminants and 25% for pigs and poultry. However, an on going discussion within the EU indicates that permission to use conventional feed will be withdrawn over a period of years. In such case, the need for imported feed will have to be met with organically cultivated feed. If feed were supplied to a 100% organic agricultural sector in Denmark, there would be a corresponding loss from the agricultural sector elsewhere in the world, which would shift the nutrient problem but not solve it. It has not been clarified how the organic exporters of feed in other countries would achieve balance with respect to nutrients, so that a bigger organic import to Denmark could be maintained in the longer term. It is therefore uncertain whether it would be possible, in the long term, to maintain the present quantity of exported pork from a 100% organic agricultural sector in Denmark.

Particular problems in fruit, vegetables and special crops

Organic production of fruit, certain special crops and individual vegetable species is particularly problematical. In conventional production, larger quantities of pesticides are used in these crops than in ordinary farm crops, and the financial value of using pesticides is high. In apples, we would expect a catastrophic decline in yield – at any rate in the varieties used today – and there could also be difficulties with durability and, thus, with the length of the season. For vegetables, the increased yield variation would be a problem in itself, due to the high establishment costs and the accompanying economic risk. Lastly, with our present level of knowledge, it is not possible to produce organic seed of satisfactory quality because of the propagation of seed-borne fungal diseases. Continued seed dressing of the first generations of cereals, followed by a need assessment of subsequent consignments of seed would be one way of considerably reducing fungicide consumption.

It is difficult to use and transfer the rules for organic production of agricultural and horticultural products to the forestry sector because the time horizon and the production period within forestry are very long, with continuous value growth throughout the production period.

- and in ornamental greenery

Problems can be expected with national monuments in old forest areas, where there is little possibility of mechanical weed control, and it can be concluded that production of organic ornamental greenery on a large scale would be difficult and would require extensive development work.

6. Consequences for the environment and health

This chapter describes the consequences for the environment and health of total restructuring for organic farming in Denmark. The consequences of a phase-out of pesticides are described in the report from the Sub-committee on Environment and Health. In continuation of that, importance is attached here to describing the consequences of the changed crop rotation and the phasing out of artificial fertilisation. This chapter should thus be seen as a supplement to the consequences described in the report from the Sub-committee on Environment and Health. The consequences for the working environment are not described, for example, because they are assumed to be the same as in the case of phasing out pesticides. The consequences of different livestock housing systems for the working environment in the organic scenarios (see section 5.3) are not described.

Sections 6.1 and 6.2, in which production-related pollution and energy consumption are discussed, are based directly on the organic scenarios described in chapter 5. The other sections – 6.3 on nature content, 6.4 on soil biology, 6.5 on consequences of constituents and 6.6 on veterinary drug consumption – are less closely related to the scenarios and are based on a number of Danish and international studies of organic farming and organic products.

6.1 Losses and pollution with nitrogen and phosphorus

In this section, the pollution with nutrients in a 100% organic agricultural sector is assessed by describing the potential for loss of nitrogen and phosphorus in the organic scenarios as described in chapter 5. Danish agriculture as it was in 1995/96 is compared with how present agriculture is expected to be with full observance of Aquatic Environment Plan II (AEP II). In this last scenario, the livestock population is assumed to be as in 1995/96, while the growth of organic farming is assumed to continue, with an additional 210,000 hectares restructured in the period 1996-2003, besides the 45,000 hectares restructured in 1996. Other measures in the scenario are set-aside of wetlands and "particularly sensitive rural areas", afforestation, increased use of second crops, reduced use of the nitrogen standard and stricter requirements concerning use of feed and use of manure. It is estimated that these measures will together reduce the yield in all crops by more than 7%, or more than 1,200 million f.u. (Grant 1998). For comparison, the corresponding reduction in yields in the organic scenarios is 20-31%.

6.1.1 Nitrogen

The overall nitrogen balance for the agricultural sector is based on estimates of supplied and removed nitrogen, as described and discussed in section 5.7. Loss of nitrogen to the atmosphere and the aquatic environment, which is not included in the overall balance, is described here. There is a risk of nitrogen loss in different places in the agricultural system's feed and nutrient cycle. The environmental impacts of nitrogen relate particularly to evaporation of ammonia and leaching, but denitrification in the soil and, secondarily, in the aquatic environment, can also result in emission of the greenhouse gas N₂O (see section 6.2).

The loss in the form of ammonia evaporating from manure depends on the production system and decreases with decreasing livestock production. However, in AEP II, better utilisation of feed is expected to reduce the amount of ammonia evaporating from manure. This change is not taken into account in the organic scenarios. There is also evaporation of ammonia from crops; this is assumed to be the same in all scenarios. 1995/96 and AEP II also include evaporation from artificial fertiliser and ammonia treatment of lye. The total balance for supply and loss of nitrogen in farming, minus the estimated loss in the form of evaporation of ammonia, gives a figure for the net supply of nitrogen to the soil (table 6.1). It should be noted, however, that the calculations are encumbered with great uncertainty, particularly concerning nitrogen fixation, as mentioned in section 5.7.1.

All else being equal, the total balance for N to soil gives an indication of the potential for nitrogen leaching and denitification in the soil. This potential must be compared with the possibility of accumulation or release of organically bound nitrogen in the soil. Changes in the soil pool's content of N depend, at any rate in the short term, on cultivation practice. For example, a bigger proportion of perennial clover in the rotation has a beneficial effect on the soil's nitrogen pool, whereas frequent and intensive soil preparation has an adverse effect (Christensen & Johnston 1997). Readers are referred to Christensen et al. (1996) for a more detailed discussion of the effect of cultivation on the decomposition of organic matter in the soil in relation to organic farming.

However, with constant use of the same cultivation practice, it can be assumed that, in the long term, the soil's nitrogen pool will be constant because the mineralisation from the soil pool is assumed to be proportional to the size of the soil pool (Christensen & Johnston 1997). Thus, with constant cultivation practice, the size of the soil pool will gradually reach a point at which there is balance between supply and loss.

Denitrification is a process in which, in anoxic conditions, bacteria convert nitrate into gaseous nitrogen compounds. In connection with AEP II, denitrification in wet meadowland is used as a means of reducing nitrogen leaching to the aquatic environment. Reestablishment of 16,000 hectares of wet meadowland, where there is considerable denitrification, is expected to result in the removal of 5.6 million kg nitrogen (Iversen et al. 1998). With normal cultivation practice on land under rotation, denitrification depends in part on the type of soil and the water content of the soil. A clear relationship with cultivation practice has not been established, but it is assumed that denitrification is associated particularly with the use of manure and that, in normal circumstances, the quantities lost are relatively small (Petersen 1996).

Assuming equilibrium with the given cultivation practice in farming today and in the organic scenarios, so that the soil's nitrogen pool is constant, the reduction in the net supply of nitrogen to soil can be taken as a reduction of the potential for nitrogen leaching. It will be seen from table 6.1 that the net supply of nitrogen to the soil is reduced by 112 million kg under AEP II compared with Danish agriculture 1995/96, while the reduction is between 164 and 241 (+/-56) million kg per year in the six organic scenarios compared with Danish agriculture 1995/96. The interval indicates an uncertainty in the estimate for nitrogen fixation, which is the item associated with greatest uncertainty. For this reason, in the long term, a considerable reduction in leaching of nitrogen must be expected in the organic scenarios compared with Danish agriculture today. It should be noted, however, that the calculations are encumbered with great uncertainty.

Table 6.1
Overall nitrogen balance for the agricultural sector (mill. kg per year), together with the net supply to the soil and the reduction of this compared with Danish agriculture 1995/96

In an analysis of energy consumption in agriculture, it is important to be aware that arable farming, seen in isolation, produces a big energy surplus and that some plant products can be used for energy purposes. For example, cereals for burning contain much more energy than is consumed in their production. That applies in both conventional and organic farming. Organic production is more energy-efficient per kg cereal produced, while conventional farming produces most net energy owing to a larger yield. The energy content of the 2 billion kg cereal that was exported in 1996 (see table 5.3) corresponds to a gross calorific value of 30 PJ (Dalgaard et al. 1998). Burning instead of export would have derivative socioeconomic consequences.

In present-day agriculture (excluding rape, seed grass and peas) there is a surplus of straw amounting to about 1.8 billion kg, which is ploughed in. That is over and above the quantity of straw already used for energy purposes today. In the organic scenarios, straw is not used for energy purposes, although there is some surplus that could be used to maintain some of the present energy production from straw. In present-day agriculture there is a potential for increased use of straw for energy purposes, and one of the objectives of the government's biomass action plan is to increase that use of straw.

Table 6.5
Straw production and straw consumption for feed and bedding in agriculture in 1996 and in the organic scenarios (billion kg) (Alrøe et al. 1998a, Agricultural Advisory Service, personal communication)