Report from the Bichel Committee - Organic Scenarios for Denmark
4. Definition of the work and method
| 4.1 | Definition of the work |
| 4.2 | Method |
100% organic farming cannot be precisely defined
With respect to preparing scenarios for organic farming in Denmark, it must be stressed that such scenarios are far more complex than, for example, scenarios for pesticide-free farming. The reasons for the complexity are as follows:
 | organic farming is based on an objective – not a precise definition; |
| the rules are still being developed; |
| a market has been established in which a price premium is obtained for organic products. |
4.1 Definition of the work
- so there is a need for a process-oriented method of work
Today, only a relatively small proportion of farms are organic farms. This fact, together with the above-mentioned complexity, means that a 100% organic farm must be expected to be very different from the organic farms we know today. It has therefore been necessary to adopt a process-oriented approach, so that different possibilities for how a 100% organic agricultural sector might look can be discussed in a dynamic process. In other words, it has also been necessary to focus on how and why a given scenario can be expected to emerge because it is only through this process that a 100% organic agricultural sector can take form. For example, there has had to be a balanced discussion of the flow of nutrients to and from Denmark. If all farming in Denmark were organic there would be no conventional farms from which to buy manure, and importing manure is not a relevant option. On the other hand, one can discuss the extent to which Denmark must be self-sufficient in feed and the requirements that might have to be made concerning import of feed and other nutrients. Another advantage of this process-oriented method of work is that it produces good background knowledge on which to base any decisions concerning a desired development.
The work process was divided into two stages:
- firstly, an objective and documented description of organic farming was prepared on the basis of various viewpoints
- secondly, the various viewpoints and problems were combined and the different considerations were assessed.
The main committee was originally intended to assess the different viewpoints (stage B), assisted by the interdisciplinary group, which is composed of representatives from the sub-committees (see section 2.1). However, the work on stage A took up most of the resources and left less time for stage B than planned. Therefore, in this report, the planned assessment has been reduced to chapter 9 "Discussion and perspectives".
-with several viewpoints
The dynamic perception of the work process was supported in stage A by working with different viewpoints. Five main viewpoints on organic farming in Denmark were used:
A.1 Farming, input and yield in different production systems
A.2 Production, economics and employment
A.3 Environmental and health-related aspects
A.4 Local and institutional aspects
A.5 Legal aspects.
These five viewpoints were chosen partly to ensure that the main and, in some cases, conflicting views on organic farming were represented and partly because of the existing structure of the Bichel Committee. The five viewpoints are dealt with in separate chapters of this report. The references for the chapters in question are: the Sub-committee on Agriculture for chapter 5 (A.1), the Sub-committee on Production, Economics and Employment for chapter 7 (A.2), the Sub-committee on Environment and Health for chapter 6 (A.3) and the Sub-committee on Legislation for chapter 8 (A.5).
As part of stage A in the work process, the following background reports were prepared:
The background reports
Agriculture
| A.1.1 | Denmark’s total production and input of ancillaries
at 0 and 15-25% import of feed with present livestock production Hugo Fjelsted Alrøe, Erik Steen Kristensen and Birgitte Hansen, DARCOF. |
| A.1.2 | Crop rotation models – evaluation of changes in yield
in agricultural crops Hugo Fjelsted Alrøe, DARCOF, Ib Sillebak Kristensen, Gunnar Mikkelsen, Lise Nistrup Jørgensen, DJF (Danish Institute of Agricultural Sciences), Michael Tersbøl, Agricultural Advisory Service. |
| A.1.3 | Production of open-grown vegetables Kristian Thorup-Kristensen and Lis Sørensen, DJF |
| A.1.4 | Feed consumption, production and production conditions in
organic farming systems John E. Hermansen, Lisbeth Mogensen & Troels Kristensen, DJF |
| A.1.5 | Production of fruit and berries Hanne Lindhard and Holger Daugaard, DJF |
| A.1.6 | The supply of phosphorus, potassium and sulphur in organic
farming Jens Færge and Jakob Magid, KVL (The Royal Vetinerary and Agricultural University) |
Production, economics and employment
| A.2.1 | Market perspectives for organic food products Bolette Abrahamsen & Jan Holm Ingemann, Aalborg University |
| A.2.2 | Economic valuation of environmental improvements with
organic farming Alex Dubgaard, Christian Beckmann & Kristian Lykke Fick, KVL |
| A.2.3 | Analysis of the socioeconomic consequences of
restructuring Danish agriculture for organic production Lars Bo Jacobsen & Søren Frandsen, SJFI (Danish Institute of Agricultural and Fisheries Economics) |
| A.2.4 | Comparison of the economy of organic, pesticide-free
production and conventional production Pia Strunge Folkmann, SJFI |
| A.2.5 | Restructuring for organic production - the possibilities
up to the year 2008. Pia Strunge Folkmann, SJFI |
Environmental and health-related consequences
| A.3.1 | Nitrogen and phosphorous – balances and environmental
consequences Ruth Grant, DMU (National Environmental Research Institute) |
| A.3.2 | Consumption of fossil energy and greenhouse gas emission Tommy Dalgaard, Niels Halberg, DJF, & Jes Fenger, DMU |
| A.3.3 | The natural content of the agricultural landscape and
dependence on form of production Jens Reddersen, DMU |
| A.3.4 | The soil’s biology Jørgen Aagaard Axelsen, DMU, Susanne Elmholt, DJF |
| A.3.5 | Health consequences of plant products Kirsten Brandt, DJF, Niels Elmegaard, DMU, Lars Ovesen, Danish Veterinary and Food Directorate, and Vagn Gundersen, Risø |
| A.3.6 | Consumption of medicine and similar – environmental
and health consequences Torben Bennedsgaard & Stig Milan Thamsborg, KVL, John Jensen, DMU, & Frank Aarestrup, SVS (National Veterinary Serum Institute) |
Local and institutional aspects
| A.4.1 | Local and institutional aspects Johannes Michelsen, University of South Denmark, & Per Kølster |
| A.4.2 | Decision-making principles and institutional perspectives Jan Holm Ingemann, Aalborg University |
| A.4.3 | Danish agriculture’s institutional network and its
potential for organic restructuring Jan Holm Ingemann, Aalborg University |
Legal aspects
| A.5 | Legal questions concerning a total restructuring of Danish
agriculture for organic production The Sub-committee on Legislation under the Bichel Committee. |
- can be ordered
These background reports have been studied and discussed in the respective sub-committees. They can be ordered from the Danish Environmental Protection Agency. For the sake of good order it should be noted that the views presented in the background reports are not necessarily those of the Bichel Committee or its sub-committees. The interdisciplinary group has used the background reports as the basis for this report on the consequences of restructuring the agricultural sector for 100% organic production.
4.2 Method
In order to draw up scenarios as a basis for assessing the consequences of totally restructuring Danish agriculture for organic production, two important methodological choices had to be made. Firstly, the goal for the scenarios had to be chosen: 100% organic production in the agricultural sector and, secondly, a base situation with which the goal could be compared.
The scenarios drawn up can be described as consistent calculations based on the available knowledge concerning agriculture today. In addition, the scenarios are based on a number of assumptions that make them scenarios for 100% organic agriculture.
A range of options -
As described above, there is no absolutely clear picture of how a 100% organic agricultural sector might look. The scenarios therefore had to represent a range of options for a future, totally organic agricultural sector. The scenarios differ from each other mainly with respect to the level of import of feed, resulting in differences in nutrient and energy turnover that have consequences for production, the environment and the economy.
Although with the focus on the constraints
The chosen scenarios represent mainly the changes that can be predicted today on the basis of the constraints inherent in 100% organic farming as a consequence of an expected fall in the level of production. It has not, on the other hand, been possible to represent to the same extent the possibilities that lie in total restructuring because they depend to a great extent on innovations. However, account has been taken of possibilities for an improved yield in cereals and grass as a consequence of greater focus on cereal production and better utilisation of pastureland than in present organic practice because of a lower yield from each dairy cow.
A total switch to organic farming is such a drastic change that it must be expected to lead to significant adjustments and innovations that are not included in the scenarios analysed in the following. That applies particularly to the parts of the food sector that supply, purchase, process and distribute the food products. However, these areas and the possible effect on them of a 100% switch to organic farming lie outside the sub-committee’s mandate and are therefore not dealt with in detail in this report. The scenarios are based on present-day practice and knowledge and cast light on the consequences of a 100% switch to organic farming on that basis. They can thus not be regarded as forecasts of a probable development.
Comparison with present-day farming
Furthermore, in order to describe the consequences of a 100% switch to organic farming, it is necessary to have a base with which the future scenarios can be compared. The base chosen is farming today, i.e. 1995/96. However, for yield levels in crops a longer period has been chosen – 1993-96. The year 1995/96 has been chosen in order to have a consistent and coherent database and having regard to the basis for the assessment of the consequences of phasing out the use of pesticides.
- although this is changing
The scenarios describe a situation 10 or 30 years hence, so a comparison with 1995/96 can be objected to on the grounds that Danish farming will look entirely different in 10 or 30 years’ time. Farming is changing all the time – a number of changes are expected in the very near future and changes have also occurred since 1996, including continued restructuring for organic production. These changes are mentioned where relevant and included wherever possible. However, it is important to note that changes and measures coming now or in future in the Danish agricultural sector will also have derivative – and in many cases unknown – effects. For example, when, as planned, Danish farmers phase out the use of growth promoters in 1999, that must be expected also to have consequences for production. Similarly, changes in both national and international agricultural policy will affect the development of both conventional and organic farming, but it has not been possible to include such perspectives to any great extent in the sub-committee’s work.
- because a coherent basis for comparison is needed
Actual, coherent and consistent scenarios for a future Danish agricultural sector have only been prepared in a few, limited areas, such as Aquatic Environment Plan II and the scenarios for phasing out the use of pesticides. These scenarios are included as the basis for comparison in the areas covered by the scenarios. Other, individual, expected changes cannot be included directly in a comparison with the scenarios because a complete picture of the consequences of these changes is lacking. The effects of phasing out the use of pesticides are described in detail in the other reports from the Bichel Committee. The present report should be seen as a supplement to those reports.
In the following chapters a picture is given of the consequences of a total switch to organic farming on the basis of different levels of feed import and different yield levels, as described above.
A detailed description of the scenarios and the assumptions on which they are based are given in chapter 5, together with the consequences for plant and livestock production.
Chapter 6 describes the environmental and health consequences, and chapter 7 the economic consequences, on the basis of the scenarios described in chapter 5. The legal aspects of restructuring for organic farming are discussed in chapter 8, including the relationship with EU legislation.
In chapter 9 the various aspects covered by the foregoing chapters are weighed, the chosen assumptions are discussed, and the possibilities for and barriers to achievement of a totally organic agricultural sector are described.