4. Climate change, Danish Environmental Protection Agency

Indicator Report

4. Climate change

Objectives

In the strategy, the long-term objectives are that the atmospheric content of greenhouse gases must be stabilised at a level sufficiently low to prevent anthropogenic hazardous impacts on the climate. Unavoidable climate change must take place at a pace that allows ecosystems to adapt and ensures that food production is not threatened. At the same time, economic development must be maintained on a sustainable basis.

In an international context, Denmark has a high emission of CO₂ per capita, which gives us a special responsibility. Via the agreement to reduce emissions of six greenhouse gases by 21 per cent between 1990 and 2008-12, Denmark will make a serious contribution to the Kyoto Protocol and thus to the prevention of global climate change. Because of the scale of the problem, there is a great need to further reduce emissions after 2012. The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has indicated that a stabilisation of climate-gas concentrations at levels which make it possible to avoid anthropogenic climate changes may require emissions to be reduced by 50-70 per cent.

It is politically acknowledged that decoupling of economic growth from emissions of for example greenhouse gases is one of the greatest challenges in relation to achieving sustainable development.

On the basis of the IPCC's recommendations, the objective in the EU is that the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere be stabilised at a level equal to just under double the concentrations before industrialisation. This implies a long-term target whereby, before the turn of the next century, discharges by industrial countries are to be reduced by 10-15 per cent of discharges today. Denmark, along with the other countries participating in the Climate Convention, is expected to undertake further, significant emission reduction commitments in the budget periods after 2012. An indicative aim of a halving of CO₂ emissions in Denmark within one generation could be the result of continued stricter reduction targets in coming budgetary periods.

Developments - a summary

The atmosphere's content of CO₂ has increased steadily. This increase in CO₂ concentrations is mainly the result of incineration of fossil fuels. In all likelihood, this is part of the explanation why average temperatures are on the rise, in Denmark as well as globally. At the same time, trend analyses of pollen data in Denmark show that the pollen season has changed significantly since pollen counts began in 1977. The season starts and culminates earlier, and quantities of pollen have increased. The reason for the shift towards earlier pollen seasons is that the weather has been significantly warmer in recent years, particularly during spring. The greater quantities of pollen may be partly caused by the increase in temperatures during the period, as higher temperatures usually lead to better growth conditions. This development indicates that there is a correlation between atmospheric contents of CO₂ and impacts on the climate (expressed here as average temperature, pollen season, and pollen quantities).

When taking a global view, developments within CO₂ emissions are far from being stable, and are even further away from beginning to fall. A fall is required in order to stabilise atmospheric contents. Developments in Denmark show a reduction of 12 per cent since 1990 (adjusted for fluctuations in electricity sector).

In 2000, total emissions corresponded to 1990 levels after having peaked in 1996. CO₂ emissions in particular have dropped since 1996. Emissions of N₂O and PFCs have remained relatively constant. Emissions of CH₄ have gone up since 1990. The overall reduction is mainly caused by the reduced export of electricity and by the increased use of natural gas and renewable energy instead of oil. The same causes are the reason why Denmark's total net emissions (gross emissions less sequestration) of greenhouse gases, expressed as tonnes of CO₂ equivalents, was back at 1990 levels in 2000 after having peaked in 1996. CO₂ sequestration in Danish forests has increased since 1990. This is due to sequestration in new forests established since 1990, as CO₂ sequestration in forests from before 1990 has been constant.

The development indicates that the national initiatives to reduce impacts on the climate (use of natural gas and renewable energy instead of oil, afforestation, etc.) have successfully reduced emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, particularly after 1996. During this period, economic growth and emissions of e.g. greenhouse gases have been decoupled.

Perspectives for development of indicators

It is an important goal for Denmark to contribute its part to the Kyoto Protocol, thereby helping to counteract global climate change. It may be relevant to investigate the opportunities for developing an indicator for the extent of reductions in tonnes CO₂ equivalents outside of Denmark due to Danish assistance. Work should also be carried out to develop more indicators for the effects of climate change in Denmark.

Indicator 4.1:
The atmospheric concentration of CO₂
Source: The WMO World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases

This indicator elucidates developments pertaining to the atmospheric content of greenhouse gases. The figure shows monthly average values for the atmospheric content of CO₂, measured on Hawaii. The unit used is ppm (parts per million).

The seasonal variations in CO₂ content are caused by CO₂ being bound in plants in the northern hemisphere during summer, and by CO₂ being released when plants rot. The general increase in the concentration of CO₂ is greater than the annual fluctuations. The general increase in CO₂ concentrations is mainly the result of combustion of fossil fuels.

The figure illustrates how CO₂ emissions are still too large in relation to the sequestration of CO₂ in oceans and the biosphere. As a result, atmospheric content has increased. The 1992 UN Climate Convention, IPCC, demands that the atmospheric content of greenhouse gases must in the long term be stabilised at a level sufficiently low to prevent hazardous anthropogenic impacts on the climate. The IPCC indicates that this may require that emissions be reduced by 50 to 70 per cent. On this basis, the objective in the EU is that concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere be stabilised at a level equal to just under double the concentrations seen before industrialisation. This corresponds to a scenario where emissions from industrial countries are reduced by 10-15 per cent in relation to presentday emissions before the turn of this century. Implementation of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol will only lead to a reduction in emissions from industrialised countries of 5 per cent in 2008-12 compared to 1990 levels. This applies to six greenhouse gases (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, CFCs, HFCs, and SF₆). Denmark's total reduction of 21 per cent corresponds to approximately 15 million tonnes of greenhouse gases, which accounts for more than 1.5 per cent of the total Kyoto reduction measured in tonnes.

Indicator 4.2:
Average temperature worldwide and in Denmark
Source: The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU), University of East Anglia

This indicator elucidates the speed and extent of climate change.
The average temperature is measured near ground level.

The long-term development in average temperatures near ground level globally and in Denmark are very much alike, but the increase is slightly higher in Denmark compared to global levels. In all likelihood, most of the increase seen after circa 1970 is caused by human impact on the climate. It can be difficult to distinguish between a general increase in temperatures caused by human influence and one occurring due to natural processes. A long period of temperature studies is required in order to unambiguously identify the anthropogenic impact on the climate. Despite the great variations in temperature measurements, the different types of measurements correspond well with each other.

The figures illustrate how the anthropogenic greenhouse effect is very likely to have affected long-term temperature developments. On top of human influences, we see variations caused by the chaotic nature of the climate or by natural impacts (volcanoes, solar variations, etc.).

Indicator 4.3:
Effects of climate change in Denmark indicated by the beginning and the size of the pollen season
Source: The Danish Meteorological Institute

This indicator illustrates the effects of climate change in Denmark, as indicated by the beginning of the pollen season. The figure shows that the pollen season has changed significantly since pollen counts began in 1977. The season starts earlier, and the quantities of pollen have increased. The greatest change in terms of the beginning of the season concerns early pollen from alder, from around 16 March to late January. The change for birch is somewhat more modest - from around 28 April to 16 April.

The reason for these shifts towards earlier pollen seasons is that the weather has been significantly warmer in recent years than when the pollen counts began, particularly during spring. The annual amount of pollen (the sum of the daily pollen counts) shows that the amounts have increased significantly - generally speaking with a factor of 2 to 3 during the period. The general increase can be one explanation of many for the observed increase in the number of people who are allergic to pollen.

The greater quantities of pollen may be partly caused by the increase in temperatures during the period, as higher temperatures usually lead to better growth conditions.

Indicator 4.4:
Global CO₂ emissions per capita, and in a number of regions and countries, including Denmark
Source: The International Energy Agency

This indictor shows what countries have special obligations due to their high emissions of CO₂. The figure shows developments in CO₂ emissions per capita for selected countries and regions, as analysed by the International Energy Agency.

The development in Denmark is obscured by major fluctuations in the electricity sector. When corrected for these fluctuations, the net result is a 12 per cent reduction during the period (according to an analysis prepared by the Danish Energy Authority). The total emissions showed large increases in e.g. China (+25.6 per cent), India (+52.9 per cent), and the OECD (+10.3 per cent). For the industrialised countries, including Eastern Europe, we see a modest drop in total emissions of 1.4 per cent. For the EU as a whole, we see a drop of 3.7 per cent, which covers vast differences, e.g. a growth of 26.8 per cent in Spain and of 52.1 per cent in Portugal, while Germany saw a reduction of 17.8 per cent and the UK saw a fall of 9.5 per cent. For the world as a whole, we see a reduction of 4.2 per cent. This figure covers an increase in the total emissions of 8.9 per cent and a population increase of 13.7 per cent.

This development illustrates that CO₂ emissions, particularly within developing countries, are far from being stable, and are even further away from beginning to fall. A fall is required in order to stabilise atmospheric contents. There is a slight decrease in CO₂ emissions from industrialised countries. This decrease does, however, encompass vast national differences.

Indicator 4.5:
Total gross greenhouse gas emissions expressed in million tonnes CO₂ equivalents - and analysed between CO₂, N₂O, CH₄, HFC, PFC and SF₆
Source: The National Environmental Research Institute, Denmark

This indicator illustrates developments in relation to Denmark's contribution to the Kyoto Protocol. The indicator shows Denmark's emissions of greenhouse gases 1990-2000 in total and by each of the six green house gasses included in the scope of the Kyoto Protocol. Denmark's base year under the Kyoto Protocol comprises the 1990 emissions of CO₂, N₂O, and CH₄ as well as the 1995 emissions of HFCs, PFCs, and SF₆. This indicator does not extend to Greenland and the Faeroe Islands.

In 2000 the total emissions corresponded to 1990 levels after having peaked in 1996. The increase up until 1996 was partly due to the growing electricity production for export, which also peaked in 1996. The subsequent reduction has mainly been caused by the reduced export of electricity and by the increased use of natural gas and renewable energy instead of oil.

Developments in relation to Denmark's international goals for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases are described under Indicator 4.8.

Indicator 4.6:
CO₂ sequestration in million tonnes
Source: The National Environmental Research Institute, Denmark

This indicator illustrates the total sequestration of CO₂ in Danish forests during the period 1990 to 2000, as well as the relative distribution of such sequestration in forests predating 1990, and in new forests established since 1990. Only the latter is included in analyses carried out under the Kyoto Protocol. The total CO₂ sequestration must be reported under the Climate Convention. This indicator does not extend to Greenland and the Faeroe Islands.

The sequestration in forests established before 1990 is deemed to be constant at approximately 0.9 million tonnes CO₂. In addition to this, sequestration due to new forest established since 1990 has grown to almost 0.1 million tonnes CO₂ during the period up until 2000.

Only the sequestration in new forests established since 1990 can be used as contributions towards honouring Denmark's reduction commitment under the Kyoto Protocol for the period 2008 to 2012. Developments in sequestration constitute part of the total development in relation to Denmark's international goals for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases, which are described under Indicator 4.8.

Indicator 4.7:
Total gross greenhouse gas emissions in million tonnes CO₂ equivalents in relation to GDP at constant prices
Source: The Danish Environmental Protection Agency

This indicator illustrates developments in relation to Denmark's contribution to the Kyoto Protocol. The indicator shows Denmark's emissions of greenhouse gases 1990-2000 in relation to developments in Denmark's gross national product (in 1995 prices). This indicator does not extend to Greenland and the Faeroe Islands.

Following a series of increases and reductions up until 1996, the period since then has shown a reduction. Consequently, the 2000 level was 22 per cent below the level seen in 1990. As the emission level for 2000 corresponds to 1990 levels, this indicator shows that economic growth has been decoupled from the emission of greenhouse gases.

Developments in relation to Denmark's international goals for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases are described under Indicator 4.8.

Indicator 4.8:
Total net (gross less sequestration) greenhouse gas emissions in million tonnes CO₂ equivalents
Source: The National Environmental Research Institute, Denmark

This indicator illustrates developments in relation to Denmark's contribution to the Kyoto Protocol. Denmark's base year under the Kyoto Protocol comprises the 1990 emissions of CO₂, N₂O, and CH₄ as well as the 1995 emissions of HFCs, PFCs, and SF₆. The total emissions and sequestration must be reported under the Climate Convention. Under the Kyoto Protocol, the total emissions must be included in analyses, whereas only part of the CO₂ sequestration included. This indicator shows Denmark's net emissions of greenhouse gases 1990-2000 - i.e. emissions less sequestration - as it must be reported to the Climate Convention, including the total sequestration, and as it must be calculated under the Kyoto Protocol, i.e. including only sequestration in new forest established since 1990. This indicator does not extend to Greenland and the Faeroe Islands.

In 2000 the net emissions corresponded to 1990 levels after having peaked in 1996. The increase up until 1996 was partly due to the growing electricity production for export, which also peaked in 1996. The subsequent reduction has mainly been caused by the reduced export of electricity and by the increased use of natural gas and renewable energy instead of oil.

As the net emissions in 2000 corresponded to the net emissions in 1990, Denmark has met the Climate Convention objective which stipulates that the countries should trace back the emission level in 2000 to the level in 1990. When applying the methods of analysis used under the Kyoto Protocol, Denmark had achieved a reduction of almost 2 per cent in 2000 since the base year. As Denmark's objective under the Kyoto Protocol will be a reduction of 21 per cent up until the period 2008-2012, this leaves a reduction of approximately 19 per cent which still needs to be achieved compared to the emissions in 2000.

Indicator 4.9:
Gross emissions in million tonnes CO₂ equivalents analysed between industry, transport, households, agriculture, and waste
Source: The National Environmental Research Institute, Denmark

This indicator shows Denmark's emissions of greenhouse gases during the period 1990 to 2000, both in total and by sector. The distribution by sector corresponds to the one used in "Climate 2012", the Ministry of Energy and Environment, March 2001. Denmark's base year under the Kyoto Protocol comprises the 1990 emissions of CO₂, N₂O, and CH₄ as well the 1995 emissions of HFCs, PFCs, and SF₆. This indicator does not extend to Greenland and the Faeroe Islands.

In 2000 the total emissions corresponded to 1990 levels after having peaked in 1996. Emissions from the transport sector grew by almost 18 per cent. Emissions from agriculture fell by approximately 14 per cent, which is mainly due to the implementation of the Action Plans for the Aquatic Environment. These plans served to reduce nitrogen emissions, thereby also reducing nitrous oxide (laughing-gas) emissions. Emissions from the commercial sector have increased by almost 7 per cent, which is partly due to greater energy consumption, and partly due to the increasing use of HFCs as a cooling agent as an alternative to cooling agents which degrade the ozone layer. Emissions from households are down by approximately 19 per cent, which is mainly due to more efficient energy consumption and to the fact that consumers change from individual heating systems which use oil to systems which use natural gas, or to district heating. Emissions from the waste sector, which in this context extends only to methane emissions from landfills, are down by almost 9 per cent. This is mainly due to the 1997 ban on depositing degradable waste and to the increasing collection of methane from landfills for energy purposes.

The objective is to incorporate all reduction opportunities for greenhouse gases in the most cost-effective manner possible. As the figure shows, only the emissions from the transport sector and the commercial sector have not been reduced.