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Denmark's Fourth National Communication on Climate Change

1. Executive Summary

• 1.1 National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals
  • 1.1.1 General
  • 1.1.2 Energy, transport, and the domestic sector
  • 1.1.3 Business sector and waste
  • 1.1.4 Agriculture and forestry
  • 1.1.5 Greenland and the Faroe Islands
• 1.2 Greenhouse gas inventory information
  • 1.2.1 Carbon dioxide, CO₂
  • 1.2.2 Methane, CH₄
  • 1.2.3 Nitrous oxide, N₂O
  • 1.2.4 The industrial gases HFCs, PFCs and SF₆
  • 1.2.5 Denmark's, Greenland's and the Faroe Islands' total emissions and removals of greenhouse gases
  • 1.2.6 Further information under the Kyoto Protocol
• 1.3 Policies and measures
• 1.4 Projections and the total effect of policies and measures
• 1.5 Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptation measures
  • 1.5.1 Climate development -effects and possibility for adaptation for Denmark
  • 1.5.2 Climate changes in Greenland and on the Faroe Islands
• 1.6 Financial resources and transfer of technology
• 1.7 research and systematic observations
• 1.8 Education, training and public awareness

1.1 NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES RELEVANT TO GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND REMOVALS

1.1.1 General

The Kingdom of Denmark – the Realm - comprises Denmark, Greenland and the Faroe Islands. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Changes has been ratified on behalf of all three parts of the Realm.

Today, Denmark has a population of 5.4 mill. and a total area of 43,000 km². More than 66% of the area is used for agricultural purposes, while 11% is forested and 10% is towns, roads and scattered housing, while the rest consists of natural areas, including lakes, watercourses, heath, etc.

The Danish climate is temperate with precipitation evenly distributed over the year. The mean annual temperature is 7.7°C and mean annual precipitation is 712 mm.

Since 1993 economic growth in Denmark has been considerable, with GDP (Gross Domestic Product) rising at an average of 2.7% per year. In 2003, GDP amounted to DKK 1,400 billion, corresponding to DKK 260,000 per capita.

1.1.2 Energy, transport, and the domestic sector

Denmark is self-sufficient in energy, due primarily to the production of oil and gas in the North Sea, but renewable energy is also increasingly contributing to the energy supply. Denmark's total own production of energy almost more than tripled since 1990.

Despite the economic growth, total energy consumption has remained largely unchanged at approximately 800 PJ since 1980. Denmark's dependence on oil and coal has fallen, and particularly within electricity and heat production, Denmark has succeeded in substituting with other fuels. Renewable energy accounts for about 14% of Denmark's actual energy consumption.

The actual (non-adjusted) energy consumption in 2003 was 863 PJ and was distributed over the following energy sources: oil 343 PJ (40%), natural gas 195 PJ (23%), coal 238 PJ (28%), and renewable energy 117 PJ (14%). The net export of electricity was significant in 2003, corresponding to 31 PJ (-4%).

The distribution of gross energy consumption (energy consumption adjusted for foreign electricity trade) in 2003 was as follows: industry and agriculture accounted for 26%, domestic sector for 27%, transport for 25% and commerce and service for 15%. Refining and non-energy purposes accounted for the remaining 7%. More than 2/3 of the electricity supply comes from large primary power stations or CHP plants, while the district heat supply covers almost half of the need for heating. Energy production and supply alone account for 44% of Denmark's total emissions of greenhouse gases.

The domestic sector accounted for 6% of Denmark's total greenhouse gas emissions in 2003.

Transport activity, energy consumption and CO₂ emissions within the transport sector have developed largely in step with economic growth. In 2003, passenger and goods transport performances were 14% and 44% above the 1990 levels respectively. In 2003, CO₂ emissions by the transport sector were about 22% over the 1990 level and accounted for 22% of Denmark's total CO₂ emissions and 18% of total greenhouse gas emissions.

1.1.3 Business sector and waste

Industry's production value accounts for about 30% of total production. The largest sectors of industry are food and beverages, engineering, electronics and the chemical industry. The total business sector (industry, building and construction, together with public and private services) accounts for about 13% of Denmark's total emissions of greenhouse gases. This does not include emissions connected to the sector's consumption of electricity and district heating, since these emissions from power and heat plants are included in the emission calculations for energy. By far the largest part of these emissions, is CO₂ from energy consumption, but the sector is also a source of emissions of industrial greenhouse gases.

The waste sector's methane emissions account for 2% of the total greenhouse gas emissions in 2003.

Methane emissions from the waste sector are expected to fall in the future due to the obligation the municipalities have had since 1997 to send combustible waste for incineration. In addition, gas from a number of landfill sites is used in energy production, which helps to reduce both CO₂ and methane emissions.

1.1.4 Agriculture and forestry

Over the last 40 years, the agricultural area in Denmark has fallen from 72% (30,900 km²) of the total area in 1960 to 62% (26,578 km²) in 2003. The number of farms has fallen by 50%, from 119,155 in 1980 to 48,613 in 2003, while the average size of farms has increased by more than 100% in the same period, from 24 ha to 54 ha. At approximately 11%, agricultural exports still account for a considerable proportion of all Danish export. Agriculture accounted for approximately 17% of Denmark's total emissions of greenhouse gases in 2003.

Approximately 11% of Denmark is forested, and the Forestry Act protects a very large part of the existing forest from other land use. The ambition is to have about 20-25% of Denmark's area forested by the end of the 21st century.

1.1.5 Greenland and the Faroe Islands

Greenland is the world's largest island, with an area of 2.2 mill. km², 85% of which is covered by the ice sheet. From north to south, Greenland extends over 2,600 km. Greenland has a population of slightly more than 56,000, and fishing is the main occupation.

Greenland's climate is Arctic, and forests do not grow in Greenland. The warmest recorded temperature since 1958 is 25.5°C, while temperatures can go down below -70°C on the inland ice sheet.

The Faroe Islands consist of 18 islands with a total area of 1,399 km² and have a population of just over 48,000. The climate is characterised by mild winters and cool summers and the weather is often moist and rainy. The mean annual temperature is 6.5°C.

Fish and fisheries account for 9899% of the Faroe Islands' total export earnings, apart from exports of ships, which vary greatly over the years. Agriculture was the main occupation until the end of the 19th century but now only accounts for 0.3% of gross national product at factor cost. There are about 1,200 head of cattle and about 70,000 sheep on the Faroe Islands.

1.2 GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY INFORMATION

Denmark's greenhouse gas inventories are prepared in accordance with the guidelines from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and are based on the methods developed under the European CORINAIR programme.

Table 1.1 shows Denmark's total emissions of the greenhouse gases CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O and the industrial gases HFCs, PFCs and SF₆ from 1990 to 2003, calculated in CO₂ equivalents in accordance with the general rules for inventories under the Climate Convention. Inventory based on the rules under the Kyoto Protocol will involve some changes with respect to base year and removals in connection with land use change and forestry (LUCF). The increase of 7.3% from 2002 to 2003 is due to large exports of electricity to other Nordic countries.

1.2.1 Carbon dioxide, CO₂

Almost all CO₂ emissions come from combustion of coal, oil and natural gas for energy production, although road transport also contributes a considerable proportion -about 22%. The relatively large fluctuations in the emissions from year to year are due to trade in electricity with other countries - primarily the Nordic countries.

In 2003, total actual CO₂ emissions inventoried under the Climate Convention, excluding land-use change and forestry (LUCF), were 12% higher than in 1990. If LUCF is included, net emissions were 10% higher. Corrected for exchange of electricity with other countries and annual temperature variations, CO₂ emissions dropped 13% with and 15% without LUCF during the same period.

TABLE 1.1 DENMARK'S TOTAL EMISSIONS OF GREENHOUSE GASES, 1990 – 2003

Source: The National Environmental Research Institute (NERI)

Click here to see Table 1.1

The reduction since 1990 is due, in particular, to a significant change in the use of fuels in energy production from coal to natural gas and renewable energy, more widespread use of CHP and improved energy efficiency.

1.2.2 Methane, CH₄

The biggest source of man-made methane emissions is agriculture, followed by landfill sites and energy production. The emissions from agriculture are due to enteric fermentation in farm animals and the handling of manure.

Emissions of methane from landfills are decreasing, because the production of methane has fallen year by year since the abrupt fall in landfilling in 1997.

The emissions from energy production have been rising with increasing use of gas engines. It is expected that these emissions will decrease, when new legislation come into force in 2006.

1.2.3 Nitrous oxide, N₂O

Agriculture is by far the main source of emissions of nitrous oxide because this forms in soil through bacterial conversion of nitrogen in fertiliser and manure. Bacterial conversion of nitrogen also occurs in drain water and coastal water. It will be seen that there has been a 30% fall in nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture since 1990. That is due to less and better use of fertiliser. A small proportion of the nitrous oxide emissions comes from the exhaust of cars fitted with a catalytic converter.

In 2003, total nitrous oxide emissions were 25% below the 1990 level.

1.2.4 The industrial gases HFCs, PFCs and SF₆

The contribution of industrial greenhouse gases (HFCs, PFCs and SF₆) to Denmark's total emissions of greenhouse gases is relatively modest, but in percentage terms, the emissions of these gases showed the biggest rise during the 1990s. The HFCs, which are primarily used in the refrigeration industry, are the biggest contributor to emissions of industrial greenhouse gases. In 2003 industrial gases accounted for a little over 1% of total emissions of greenhouse gases, corresponding to approximately 750,000 tonnes of CO₂ equivalents. In 2001 and 2002 new regulatory instruments, including both taxes and bans, were adopted. This has meant that the increase rate in emissions of industrial gases has fallen, so that significant increases from year to year have been replaced by small increases.

1.2.5 Denmark's, Greenland's and the Faroe Islands' total emissions and removals of greenhouse gases

The total inventories for Denmark, Greenland and the Faroe Islands are reproduced in Table 1.2. As will be seen, the Climate Convention's goal of reduction of the emissions to the 1990 level in 2000 was achieved, since emissions in 2000 were 1.4%

below the 1990 level. If emissions For the time being, the inventories and removals from land use change from Greenland contain only invenand forestry are included, 2000 did, tories of the CO₂ emissions from however, show an increase of just combustion of fossil fuels. However, under 1% due to windfalls in Danish this is regarded as by far the main forests in December 1999. source of greenhouse gases.

TABLE 1.2 DENMARK'S, GREENLAND'S AND THE FAROE ISLANDS' TOTAL EMISSIONS AND REMOVALS OF GREENHOUSE GASES, 1990 – 2003

Source: The National Environmental Research Institute (NERI)

Click here to see Table 1.2

The inventories for the Faroe Islands contain not only the CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel but also the methane and nitrous oxide emissions.

1.2.6 Further information under the Kyoto Protocol

The National Environmental Research Institute of Denmark (NERI) is the contact point for the national system for greenhouse gas inventories, and this is being adapted to comply with Article 5, paragraph 1 of the Kyoto Protocol and the regulations issued in this connection.

This work includes formal agreement on data supplies and manuals for quality assurance and quality control of the inventories.

The emission inventories will, further to recent years' improvements with the inclusion of minor emissions from wastewater treatment and certain industrial processes, be extended to include other emissions from industrial processes, and the documentation for national emission factors will be improved.

As regards the future emission inventories under the Kyoto Protocol, note that Denmark chose 1995 as the base year for industrial greenhouse gases. Moreover, in the preliminary inventories under the Protocol only the removals in forests occurring as a consequence of afforestation since 1990 are included so far, cf. Article 3, paragraph 3 of the Protocol.

1.3 POLICIES AND MEASURES

Since the end of the 1980s and during the 1990s a considerable number of measures have been implemented that have reduced the emissions of greenhouse gases.

In February 2003 the government published Denmark's new Climate Strategy. Cost effectiveness is a vital planning consideration in order to achieve cost-effective solutions in environment efforts. The basis of the strategy is that Denmark must fulfil its international climate obligations under the Kyoto Protocol and according to the subsequent burden-sharing agreement in the EU.

The Kyoto Protocol offers the possibility of planning climate action that is flexible as regards the use of both domestic and international measures and that, globally, gives more cost-effective solutions in environment efforts. The Climate Strategy combines cost-effective domestic measures with use of the Kyoto Protocol's flexible mechanisms.

Follow-up on the Climate Strategy in general

In order to ensure cost-effectiveness in climate policy, as part of the follow-up on the Climate Strategy, the government decided to appoint a standing climate committee to follow up regularly on the deficit and ensure cost-effective implementation of the climate policy. In 2006 the climate committee is to co-ordinate the preparation of a progress report on the fulfilment of Denmark's re-duction commitment and up-date calculations concerning measures with regard to costs and potentials, aimed at a possible revision of Denmark's Climate Strategy. An element in this report will be the results of the Policies and Measures Project, which e.g. continues to investigate the potential of new domestic measures where previous calculations have indicated relatively low reduction costs. It also investigates more closely whether new information exists that could contribute to reducing previously calculated costs further, and whether additional cost-effective national measures could be found.

However, it is likely that still only relatively few domestic actions with a significant potential, would be cost-effective compared to the use of the flexible mechanisms. This must be seen in the light of the fact that Denmark has already made a massive national effort up through the 1990s as documented in the report “Denmark's CO₂ emissions - the effort in the period 1990-2001 and the associated costs “ from March 2005.

Measures and effects across sectors

For many of the energy producers and a large part of the energy-intensive industry, the Danish implementation of the EU Directive establishing a scheme for greenhouse gas emission allowance trading within the Community will form the framework for Danish efforts. The companies that are covered by the scheme, and whose activity thus becomes limited by a quota, can plan their climate action themselves. They can choose to reduce their own emissions when this is most appropriate, or they can buy allowances or credits from project-based emission reductions when this is considered most appropriate. The companies covered by the scheme will thus have the possibility of ongoing adjustment of their action so that it is always as effective as possible.

Besides quotas and the use of flexible mechanisms, the Climate Strategy includes a number of national measures, including existing measures that are being continued and new, potential measures that will be considered on the way.

Since the reduction costs in the different sectors are continuously changing, in part due to technology development and changed economic framework conditions, the strategy includes regular evaluation of the action so that the most cost-effective policies and measures are identified.

In a comparison with the national mechanisms it is important to be aware that these must typically be seen in a sector-political context, in which climate is only one among many considerations in the policy being planned. For example, a fundamental consideration in the energy sector is security of supply, which is improved by lower energy consumption and a multiple energy supply.

The levels of taxes and duties are also having an effect on several greenhouse gas emitting activities across sectors. Denmark has special taxes on motor vehicles, energy products, alcohol, tobacco, and a number of other products. During the 1990s a number of new environmental taxes were introduced. These taxes were imposed on consumer goods that caused pollution or were scarce (water, energy products such as such as oil, petrol, electricity, etc.) or on discharges of polluting substances (CO₂, HFCs, PVC, SF₆, SO₂, and sewage). Taxes are imposed on mineral oil, tobacco, and alcohol in accordance with EU legislation. The CO₂ taxes are among the subjects to be dealt with by a committee set up by the Minister for Taxation. The objective of the committee is to analyse the CO₂ taxes in relation to the CO₂ allowance scheme, which entered into force on 1 January 2005, as well as to investigate whether the energy taxation system can be designed more appropriately. The committee is expected to end its work in spring 2007.

The energy sector

Energy production and energy-consuming activities in the different sectors are the main contributors to the total emissions of CO₂ due to use of large quantities of coal, oil and natural gas. This is due to use of large quantities of coal, oil and natural gas. The energy sector is therefore pivotal in the efforts to reduce the emissions of CO₂.

The goal of the energy policy today is to create well-functioning energy markets within frameworks that secure cost-effective solutions, security of supply, environmental concerns and efficient use of energy.

The goal of the 1970s energy policy was to prevent supply crises using a multiple energy supply, which reduced dependency on oil. In the 1980s, the main focus was to protect against large and external increases in energy prices through increased focus on self-sufficiency, co-production and macroeconomic considerations. In the 1990s the goal was the development of a sustainable energy sector.

Energy-policy key considerations have thus been both multi-faceted and changing as the goals were met and new challenges appeared. Over a number of years, many initiatives have been taken that have yielded positive results for society. At the same time, CO₂ emissions have been reduced in a number of sectors.

First, this success is due to significant efforts in the transformation sector. Particularly in the production of electricity and heat there has been a substantial increase in co-production and substitution with other fuels. Thus, natural gas, waste and biomass are increasingly being used in small-scale and industrial CHP plants, natural gas and renewable energy is increasingly being used in large scale electricity production, and natural gas is increasingly being used for individual heating of buildings.

This development is emphasised by the fact that gross energy consumption (actual energy consumption adjusted for foreign electricity trade) only went up from 816 PJ in 1980 to 829 PJ in 2003, whereas GDP grew by 50% in the period. If we only look at CO₂ emissions adjusted for climate and foreign electricity trade, the conversion sector's CO₂ emissions fell by about ¼ in the period.

Moreover, there have been active efforts to make energy use in all end uses more efficient. Denmark has thus been a pioneer country as regards broad political agreements on energy savings efforts that have developed new policies and measures to limit energy consumption.

This is underlined by the trend in the final energy consumption, i.e. the energy consumption by the end user in the different sectors. The total final energy consumption in the domestic sector, agriculture and industry, commerce and service and the public sector today is about 3.5% lower than in 1980. At the same time, GDP grew by about 50%, and this means that energy consumption per GDP unit (intensity) fell by 34%, corresponding to an average 1.9% per year. This very positive development is summarised in Figure 1.1.

The development in final energy consumption analysed by sectors is shown in Figure 1.2.

A vast range of measures have been applied over the years to achieve the various energy policy objectives mentioned above.

Taxes have been used for a number of years as measures which also lead to a reduction of the CO₂ emissions from the energy sector - partly with a view to a general reduction and partly to promote the use of fuels with lower CO₂ emissions, mainly biomass. This includes lower CO₂ emissions, e.g. natural gas and biomass. Such taxes are still being used.

Increased use of CHP and enlarging the areas receiving district heat have been main elements of the Danish strategy to promote efficient use of energy resources ever since the end of the 1970s.

Renewable energy sources have been promoted with economic measures, including the tax system and through production grants.

From 2005 energy producers and parts of the energy-intensive industry are covered by the EU's CO₂ allowance scheme. The allowance scheme will be the most important measure in Denmark's fulfilment of its climate obligations under the Kyoto Protocol. The allowance scheme permits significant improvements to the cost-effectiveness of Denmark's climate policies and measures and forms a main element of the Danish Government Climate Strategy.

The EU’s CO₂ allowance scheme replaces the national CO₂ allowance regulation for electricity producers which was in force from 15 June 2000 to 31 December 2004.

The transport sector

Efforts to turn the upward trend in emissions of greenhouse gases in the transport sector have so far failed, in part because it is extremely difficult to reduce the CO₂ emissions in this sector in Denmark without international initiatives.

The transport sector’s possibility, with national measures, of contributing to reduction of Denmark’s CO₂ emissions shows that the cost-effectiveness of the measures depends entirely on the side effects. Taxes have also been used for a number of years as measures to reduce the CO₂ emissions from the energy sector - partly with a view to a general reduction and partly to promote the use of fuels with lower CO₂ emissions, mainly biomass.

In accordance with the government’s platform from February 2005 a committee has been appointed to investigate the options for reorganising the total motor vehicle tax system over several years in a way that promotes the environment and retains existing revenue levels. The government will also strengthen the development of green technology, for example in the bio-fuel area.

FIGURE 1.1 TREND IN FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION, GDP AND ENERGY INTENSITY

Source: Danish Energy Authority

FIGURE 1.2 FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION ANALYSED BY SECTORS

Source: Danish Energy Authority

An overview of the total potential in the transport area will be available in 2006 as part of The Policies and Measures Project.

The business sector

In addition to the key instrument - allowance regulation - the ongoing initiatives to reduce the emissions from the business sector include promotion of energy savings and energy efficiency improvements, conversion of energy production to cleaner fuels and initiatives to reduce the emissions of industrial gases. As an extension of the political agreement of 10 June 2005 to significantly strengthen energy-saving efforts, new initiatives will be commenced during 2005 and 2006.

Work to improve energy efficiency in the public sector has been going on for more than 10 years, and considerable savings have been achieved. However, there are still economically viable possibilities for savings. As an extension of the Report on Energy Savings of May 2003 and the Danish government's draft action plan from December 2004 for a renewed energy-saving effort, a new circular on energy-efficiency in state institutions was sent out in the spring of 2005. This circular requires that in the future institutions must implement savings initiatives with a reasonable repayment period and place priority on energy efficiency when purchasing appliances and equipment. In accordance with the political agreement on energy-saving efforts, discussions will be initiated with municipal and regional authorities on meeting the requirements that also apply to state institutions for energy-efficient procurement and achievement of energy savings based on a five-year payback time.

The regulation of emissions of the industrial greenhouse gases (HFCs, PFCs and SF₆) is 2-phased, consisting partly in a tax and partly in a statutory order on discontinuation of the use of the gases in new installations. The tax is imposed on the substances on importation because none of them is produced in Denmark.

In July 2002 a statutory order on regulation of the industrial greenhouse gases entered into force. It includes a general ban on use of the industrial greenhouse gases in a wide range of new installations/products from 1 January 2006, including, for example, domestic refrigerators and freezers, PUR foam, etc.

Agriculture, forestry and fisheries

Within the agricultural sector the following measures have reduced, or will reduce, emissions: ban on burning straw on fields, Action Plans for the Aquatic Environment I and II and the Action Plan for Sustainable Agriculture, Action Plan for the Aquatic Environment III and the CAP reform, the Ammonia Action Plan and an amended Statutory Order on Manure, action plan for joint biogas installations) and support for planting of windbreaks.

The Action Plans for the Aquatic Environment and the Action Plan for Sustainable Agriculture have, in particular, reduced the emissions of nitrous oxide, and most of the changes in emissions of nitrous oxide from the agriculture sector that have taken place since 1990 can be attributed to these action plans.

2001 brought the adoption of an Ammonia Action Plan which, together with Action Plans for the Aquatic Environment I (1987), II (1998) and III (2004), will reduce ammonia evaporation.

The purpose of banning burning of straw has been to reduce air pollution from this activity. The ban has resulted in greater return of carbon to the soil and increased use of straw as a fuel.

Conversion of manure from biogas and other organic waste in biogas plants provides the opportunity to reduce methane emissions from manure management at the same time as producing energy.

Planting of windbreaks contributes to reducing wind erosion and also leads to greater biodiversity in the landscape. Moreover, removal of CO₂ takes place in the woody biomass of the windbreaks.

The national forest programme includes evaluation of the possibilities offered by the Kyoto Protocol for economically viable CO₂ sequestration in forests. The political goal with the most direct influence on increased carbon sequestration is the declaration of intent from 1989 to double the forested area in Denmark within 100 years. Various measures have been taken towards achieving this goal. For instance, a government grant scheme has been establish that supports private afforestation on agricultural land and the state itself establishes new forests. In addition, some private individuals choose to establish forests on agricultural land without a government grant.

The domestic sector

With a view to reducing both direct and indirect CO₂ emissions from the domestic sector, a wide range of initiatives have been launched. The initiatives promote electricity savings, savings in energy consumption for space heating and fuel conversion (from electric heat and oil to district heat, natural gas and renewable energy).

As a follow-up to the Report on Energy Savings of May 2003, a number of new initiatives have been commenced, including promoting particularly energy-efficient refrigerators and freezers, phasing-out traditional double glazing (voluntary agreement), initiatives in relation to boilers and circulation pumps, reducing energy consumption for standby and strengthening of research and development activities.

Following the political agreement of 10 June 2005 to considerably strengthen energy-saving efforts, new initiatives will be launched during 2005 and 2006.

Political agreement on energy savings

As a follow-up to the agreements of 29 March 2004, the Danish government presented a draft action plan for a renewed energy-saving effort on 29 December 2004.

On 10 June 2005 the government made a broad political agreement to significantly strengthen energy-saving efforts. The agreement is ambitious, and sets the framework for efficient and increased energy-saving efforts in the coming years. The parties to the agreement agree that overall energy consumption (excluding transport) are to be reduced. Strengthened efforts will be made to attain specific and verifiable energy savings corresponding to 7.5 PJ per year on average in the period 20062013. Important parts of the energy savings will be achieved by better energy-saving performance by grid and distribution companies within electricity, natural gas, district heating and oil.

The government's objective is to promote energy saving initiatives to allow Denmark to remain at the forefront with regard to energy efficiency. The initiatives will be based on economically justifiable investments, environmental consideration and advancement of Danish energy and building technology. Measures aimed at reducing energy consumption include more stringent energy provisions in building regulations, new improved energy labelling, better inspection of boilers and ventilation systems, special initiative in the public sector, and reorganisation of the energy savings initiatives of energy companies. Overall, the government's action plan and the political agreement entail a significant strengthening of overall energy-saving efforts.

Energy strategy 2025

In June 2005 the government presented a new long-term energy strategy – Energy Strategy 2025. The strategy is an overall and coherent presentation of the government's long-term energy policy. At the core of the strategy is a clear market-based energy-political objective, in which public authorities provide the framework for the market actors. Thus, the Energy Strategy is based on:

• liberalised energy markets with common EU framework
• market-based cost-effective instruments, and
• public authorities providing the overall grid infrastructure and economic instruments, including the CO₂ allowance scheme.

In line with this, the strategy does not propose quantitative objectives for the extension of renewable energy, however it sets the stage for and envisages a market-based increase in the use of renewable energy. It also underlines the importance of strengthened research and development of new energy technologies. Finally, it focuses on the transport sector. A committee will be set up to discuss the overall perspectives for alternative propellants in the transport sector, including biofuels.

The Energy Strategy also assesses the need for extending the overall electricity transmission network. The government recommends that a power line be established below the Great Belt, and that Energinet. dk, cooperating with Statnett, make a detailed study of the financial aspects of strengthening the Skagerak power cable.

The waste sector

The waste sector's contribution to reduction of greenhouse gas emissions consists mainly in: reducing landfilling of organic waste, utilising gas from discontinued/existing landfill sites and the waste as an energy source.

The Statutory Order on Waste was amended from 1 January 1997, to introduce a municipal obligation to assign combustible waste to incineration (corresponding to a ban on landfilling combustible waste). As a result of this, large quantities of combustible waste that used to go to landfill sites are now either recycled or used as fuel in Denmark's incineration plants. Future action will consist mainly in a continued ban on landfilling of combustible waste and implementation of Waste Strategy 2005-2008.

Greenland

Greenland will work to promote use of renewable and environmentally friendly energy (water, wind power, solar energy, hydrogen) which in the long term will reduce CO₂ emissions and make Greenland less dependent on fossil fuels. The goal is to achieve the greatest financial and energy savings, to reduce the vulnerability of energy supply through utilisation of renewable energy and make the production and supply system more efficient.

Until the publication of the Greenland Energy Plan 2010 in 1995, the requirement for security of supply and the energy policy guidelines from 1986 meant that the main focus of was to be hydropower as one of the all-important energy policy objectives in Greenland.

With Energy Plan 2010, for the first time the Home Rule presented a complete review of the energy sector and an action plan for its development and set up a more differentiated main energy policy objective of “establishing an energy supply that does not compromise security of supply and that ensures the least possible economic and environmental burden for society and the other energy players”.

Both before and since 1995, policies and measures have been adopted and implemented in the energy sector that have reduction of greenhouse gas emissions as one, although not in most cases the main, objective. Some of the most important measures are:

• Act on Energy Supply, 1997
• Decisions on 3 hydropower plants, in operation from 1993, 2005 and 2008
• Decisions on 6 waste incineration plants with some of the surplus heat used for district heating
• Sector Programme for Renovation with an Environment and Energy Improving Effect in Greenland 2000-2003

Faroe Islands

The Climate Convention was ratified by the Realm, and therefore it also applies for the Faroe Islands. The Faroese have not yet formulated an actual Climate Strategy or energy policy.

However, after the last general election on 20 January 2004 the home rule government agreed to a statement of intent on the energy area, which included the following:

• Overall energy policy is a national political responsibility.
• The oil administration and the municipalities are to prepare an electricity supply act.
• Energy development should consider nature and the environment.
• Renewable energy sources should comprise as large a proportion of total energy production as possible.
• Cooperation with respective authorities on R&D regarding renewable energy is to be promoted.
• Use of energy-saving products is to be promoted.

It is also intended to set up a working group to prepare a proposal for an energy policy action plan by June 2006.

1.4 PROJECTIONS AND THE TOTAL EFFECT OF POLICIES AND MEASURES

An up-dated projection of Denmark's emissions and removals of greenhouse gases in 2004-2030 was prepared in May 2005. This updated baseline projection (`with (existing) measures' projection) is based on, e.g. an updated energy projection, which now includes expected effects of the implemented EU allowance directive. Note that this only concerns the expected effects of the common EU allowance regulation on national emissions. Concerning agriculture, the expected effects of the Action Plan for the Aquatic Environment III have now been included in the baseline projection.

The result of this projection of emissions is shown in Table 1.3 together with the expected effects of allocations of funds to JI and CDM projects in 2003-2008.

As shown in Table 1.3, the Danish deficit is estimated at 13 mill. tonnes of CO₂ equivalents annually, based on Denmark's legal commitment according to the EU Burden Sharing Agreement. This commitment is based on the fact that no correction has been made for the particularly large imports of electricity in 1990.

If this compensation is made as assumed by Denmark, the deficit is reduced to approx. 8 mill. tonnes of CO₂ equivalents annually in 2008-2012, as shown in Table 1.3.

Compared to the deficit of 20-25 mill. tonnes of CO₂ equivalents annually in 2008-2012, inventoried on the basis of the projection which was presented together with the government's proposal for a Climate Strategy for Denmark in February 2003 to show the expected development without implementation of additional measures, there is a reduction of approx. 12 mill. tonnes of CO₂ equivalents annually in 2008-2012.

With the choice of method, the deficit expresses the need to purchase allowances from abroad or to implement new measures outside the sectors subject to allowances. So, as a result of the introduction of the CO₂ allowance scheme, the deficit is in principle not directly comparable to the deficit in the Government's Climate Strategy, since the cost effects of the allowances are included, whereas ultimately the allocation of allowances decides the climatic effects of the scheme. Note that the projection, and therefore also the deficit, is based on model calculations, which are subject to uncertainty. This applies, not least, to expected developments in energy prices, prices of CO₂ allowances, and the developments in the Nordic electricity market, which have a direct influence on the size of exports of electricity. The implementation of the EU allowance scheme has, however, created a basis for greater certainty regarding the fulfilment of Denmark's climate commitments under the Kyoto Protocol and the EU Burden Sharing Agreement.

1.5 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION MEASURES

1.5.1 Climate development - effects and possibility for adaptation for Denmark

Analyses with global and regional climate models show the following general trend for the climate in Denmark in the period 2071-2100 in relation to 1961-1990:

• A rise in the annual mean temperature of about 3-5°C, depending on the chosen scenario for emission of greenhouse gases. Greatest warming at night, and no major difference between the increase in summer and winter. Warming leads to fewer days with frost and snow and less days with snow cover.
   
• A 10-40% increase in winter precipitation and a reduction in the oder of 10-25% in summer precipitation. A clear tendency towards more episodes with heavy precipitation, particularly in autumn, and lengthy dry periods, especially in the summer.
   
• A tendency towards more frequent westerly winds and at the same time a shift of the storm tracks over the North Atlantic slightly eastward, leading to a small increase in storm activity over Denmark and the adjacent waters. On this basis, calculations with storm surge models show that the highest sea level in the more extreme cases could rise by 5-10% relative to today (about 0.3 m on the west coast). In addition to this there is the global rise in sea level which the IPCC estimate at between 0.1-0.9 m over the level today.

TABLE 1.3 THE RESULTS OF DENMARK'S LATEST "WITH EXISTING MEASURES ONLY" PROJECTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND THE DEFICIT COMPARED TO THE EU BURDEN SHARING OF THE EU REDUCTION TARGET UNDER THE KYOTO PROTOCOL

Source: 1990-2003: The National Inventory Report (NIR), the National Environmental Research Institute (NERI), April 2005. 2004-2030: Projection of greenhouse gas emissions, Memorandum to the Danish EPA, NERI, May 2005

1 Base year for CO₂, methane, and nitrous oxide is 1990. In accordance with the Kyoto Protocol, 1995 is chosen as the base year for industrial gases.
2 “2010” stands for mean emissions in 2008-2012
3 “2015” stands for mean emissions in 2013-2017
4 Here net emission of CO₂ inventoried under the Kyoto Protocol, because removal of CO₂ in forests planted since 1990 is included cf. Protocol article 3.3.
5 The deficit has been calculated both on the basis of the assumption of taking imports of electricity in 1990 into account, cf. the political statement of the Council and the Commission and on the basis of Denmark's legal commitment under the EU Burden Sharing Agreement.

Uncertainties relating to the assessment of future climate change, especially in projecting precipitation and extreme weather phenomena such as storms and floods, are significant. The DMI models and most

DMI models and most other models show climate sensitivity at about 3°C for a doubling in the CO₂ content in the atmosphere. However, new model studies published in 2005 in the journal Nature show that climate sensitivity could be considerably greater than hitherto assumed.

The impacts of possible climate changes in Denmark have been evaluated several times since 1988, and most recently in the Danish EPA report of 2004: Adapting to the climate of the future. The general conclusion is that the direct impacts in moderate climate scenarios would be modest and could be countered by suitable, ongoing adaptation. In October 2005 the Danish government initiated preparations to meet the primary impacts of climate change.

The purpose is on the basis of three possible future climate scenarios to establish a catalogue of consequences and measures.

Systematic evaluations have not been made of secondary impacts for Denmark, for example in the form of changing tourist patterns, environmental refugees, agricultural prices/subsidies, or changed possibilities for wind turbine exports. For a small, export-oriented and open economy such as Denmark, such secondary impacts could easily be more important than the primary impacts.

In the water area, two studies in 2003 and 2004 have indicated the need for extraordinary action. In its report, the Academy of Technical Sciences pointed in particular to the need to plan renovation of drainage systems so that they will also be able to function in a future wetter climate.

For Danish agriculture, the overall effects are estimated to be advantageous. Changes in cultivation practice can be implemented at short notice, and production is expected to grow with rising temperature and CO concentration.

Denmark is placed centrally in a vegetation belt of temperate deciduous forest, and, with moderate future climate change, a majority of existing tree species that thrive well today are expected to persist in Denmark. Norway spruce, however, may be the exception.

About 1,800 km of the 7,400 km coastline are protected with dikes or other permanent installations. Increasing use is being made of beach nourishment.

1.5.2 Climate changes in Greenland and on the Faroe Islands

Analyses with global climate models show the following general trend in the climate in Greenland in the period 2071-2100 compared with 19611990 for a middle-high scenario:

• A rise in the mean annual temperature in South Greenland of about 2°C, slightly more in winter than in summer, and in North Greenland, a rise in temperature of 6-10°C in winter, but only small rises in summer.
   
• A general increase of 10-50% in precipitation. The winter increase could however be significantly bigger in North Greenland - locally up to more than 200%.

Analyses with global climate models show the following general trend for the climate on the Faroe Islands in the period 2071-2100 in relation to the period 1961-1990:

• A rise of around 3°C in annual mean temperature. There is only a slight difference in temperature rise in summer and winter.
   
• A rise in winter precipitation of about 30%, but only slight or no increase in the summer.

1.6 FINANCIAL RESOURCES AND TRANSFER OF TECHNOLOGY

In 2004 Danish development assistance constituted about DKK 12 billion, corresponding to 0.84% of GNI. With the strategy for Denmark's assistance to developing countries, A World of Difference, the Danish government has laid down priorities for Danish development assistance for the period 20042008.

With this strategy, the government emphasises that focus will still be on long-term development work with a view to combating poverty and that the main priorities will be initiatives within social sectors, i.e. education, health, water and sanitation. At the same time, the Danish government's prioritisation of the global environment issues and the question of free trade and market-based economic growth is maintained and strengthened. Moreover, attempts have been made to establish better interplay between environmental assistance and Denmark's general effort to protect the global environment, including through climate initiatives under the Kyoto Protocol. International climate cooperation as well as adaptation to climate change of developing countries have high priority in Denmark's international development cooperation.

1.7 RESEARCH AND SYSTEMATIC OBSERVATIONS

Research and observations within climate in the broad sense of the word are going on at a number of institutes and organisations and cover a wide range of disciplines, from natural science to evaluation of policies and measures and societal aspects.

The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) carries out observations of climate parameters (atmosphere and ocean), including observations under the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO)'s programmes and sub-programmes. Climate observations, together with climate research, have been one of DMI's main tasks for more than 125 years, with measurement, theory and modelling. DMI has research competence in carrying out calculations of the climate in the future using global and regional climate models.

The National Environmental Research Institute (NERI) is in charge of monitoring the effect of climate change on nature and environment.

Research competence concerning physical expressions of past climate change is particulary at the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), the University of Copenhagen (KU) and Aahus University. GEUS also has competencies in glaciological studies of Greenland's ice sheet and its interaction with climate change, and the importance of climate change for the hydrological cycle. The Geophysical Department and the Geological Institute at KU and the Geological Institute at Aarhus University have very great expertise in palaeoclimate data, and the climate group at KU is known worldwide for its ice core drilling and analyses. NERI contributes important research competence in relation to the effect of climate change on ecosystems.

Other institutions, e.g. Forest and Landscape Denmark (SL), the Danish Institute of Agricultural Sciences (DJF), Risø National Laboratory, and the Danish National Space Centre work with different aspects of climate research.

It is partly on the basis of research competencies in the above-mentioned areas that Denmark participates actively in IPCC's work. In addition, the Danish climate research contributes to several international projects under the World Climate Research Programme.

Danish climate research increased steadily in the period 1998 to 2001, from 172 man-years in 1998 to 189 man-years in 2001. The budget increased correspondingly from DKK 94 mill. in 1998 to DKK 114 mill. in 2001. Of this, foreign funding accounted for just under 30%. In the subsequent period, there has been a general reduction in funds for Danish climate research.

DMI monitors the main weather and climate parameters regularly. In the climate monitoring programme, classic methods of measurement are used and new, satellite-based observation methods are developed. DMI operates around 200 automatic measuring stations in the Realm (Denmark, Greenland and the Faroe Islands) with a broad measuring programme ranging from automatic water level or precipitation stations that measure only one parameter to stations with a full measuring programme, including automatic cloud height detectors and weather type detectors. To collect precipitation data, DMI also operates a network of about 450 manual precipitation stations, which are used mainly for mapping the precipitation climatology. The measurements are collected on a daily basis via telephone and are thus available shortly after measurements have been made.

Besides being of use for national programmes, the observations concern Denmark's international contribution in the form of observation components from Danish territory to the worldwide meteorological observation network WWW (World Weather Watch), UNFCC and other international programmes for mapping weather and climate within the GCOS (Global Climate Observing System) coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The meteorological observations are stored in DMI's database, and observations from many Danish stations are available in electronic form right back to 1872, water level measurements back to 1890, and measurements of the surface temperature of the sea back to 1931. Each day about 75,000 observations from the Realm are added to the database, and the total number of observations in the database is around 300,000,000.

1.8 EDUCATION, TRAINING AND PUBLIC AWARENESS

In Denmark there is an ongoing public debate in the media and elsewhere about climate change, anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and the political reaction in the form of policies and measures. Denmark has a long tradition for involving the public and, in the environment field, this tradition was followed up by an international agreement - the Aarhus Convention from 1998. A considerable amount of information on climate change and Danish policies is provided on the websites of the Ministry of Environment (www.mim.dk), the Danish Environmental Protection Agency (www.mst.dk), the Ministry of Finance (www.fm.dk), the Ministry of Transport and Energy (www.trm.dk) and the Danish Energy Authority (www.ens.dk).

The websites of the Ministry of the Environment and the Danish EPA are regularly updated with the latest relevant information within the climate area, either directly in the form of press releases, documents, reports, etc. or through links to the actual players.

NERI has prepared a range of climate reports, which, together with other climate information, e.g. climate data, are published on NERI's website www.dmu.dk. DMI has a climate website at www.dmi.dk, providing current and historical climate data, together with a basic description of the climate system and climate processes, and themes on new results from the international scientific literature.

DMI participates in a number of international projects, with support primarily from the EU Commission's framework research programmes, which involve exchange of knowledge and post-graduate training of Danish research scientists. In addition, addition, the Institute contributes to IPCC's work, and the results from that, which are communicated to the public.

A number of initiatives are being carried out to promote environmentally sound behaviour in companies and households, particularly for climate reasons, and with respect to energy use. Labelling schemes, printed matter, information lines, media spots and similar are used to increase public knowledge of possibilities for action and knowledge of less environmentally harmful technologies, and every year a number of public campaigns are carried out.

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Version 1.0 December 2005, © Danish Environmental Protection Agency