Denmark's Fourth National Communication on Climate Change – 8. Research and systematic observation

Denmark's Fourth National Communication on Climate Change

8. Research and systematic observation

8.1 Climate research and observations in general
8.2 Research
8.3 Systematic climate observations

8.1 CLIMATE RESEARCH AND OBSERVATIONS IN GENERAL

Research and observations within climate in the broad sense of the word are going on at a number of institutes and organisations and cover a wide range of disciplines, from natural science to evaluation of policies and measures and societal aspects.

The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) carries out observations of climate parameters (atmosphere and ocean) under the World Meteorological Organisation's (WMO) programmes and sub-programmes: World Weather Watch Programme (WWW), Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW), Global Observing System (GOS), Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) and Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS). DMI also participates in the Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC). Denmark is also active via DMI in the GEO initiative.

Climate monitoring and research has been a key task for DMI for more than 125 years. The National Environmental Research Institute (NERI) is in charge of monitoring the effect of climate change on nature and environment.

Danish research competence concerning the physical expressions of past climate changes is particularly at the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), the University of Copenhagen (KU) and Aarhus University. GEUS also has competencies in glaciological studies of the Greenland ice sheet and the ice sheet's interaction with climate change and in the effect of climate change on the water cycle in nature. The Geophysical Department and the Geological Institute at KU and the Geological Institute at Aarhus University have very great expertise in palaeoclimate data, and the climate group at KU is known worldwide for its ice core drilling and analyses. NERI contributes important research competence in relation to the effect of climate change on ecosystems.

DMI/Danish Climate Centre covers the physical world, i.e. measurement, theory and modelling of the climate system. However other institutions than the ones mentioned above, e.g. Forest & Landscape Denmark (SL), and the Danish Institute of Agricultural Sciences (DJF), Risø National Laboratory and the Danish National Space Center work with different aspects of climate research. The Danish Climate Centre has published an overview report describing the bulk of current Danish research on climate changes¹.

It is partly on the basis of research competencies in the above areas that Denmark also participates actively in IPCC's work. Denmark has contributed to IPCC work through

e.g. contributions to all three main reports, and several researchers are currently contributing to the preparation of the 4^th assessment report (AR4) to be published in 2007. One researcher is lead author of a chap-ter on future regional climate. Furthermore, Denmark has contributed to the preparation of the two recent status reports on the ozone layer under the WMO and UNEP.

Finally, DMI has contributed to the preparation of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment report (ACIA) under the Arctic Council and the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC).

The Copenhagen Global Change Initiative (COGCI) is a formal collaboration including research network and PhD programme involving three Danish institutions (GEUS, DMI and NERI) and the University of Copenhagen. The COGCI comprises all relevant scientific and cross-cutting disciplines in global, regional and local effects of environment and climate problems.

Danish research contributes to a wide range of international projects under the World Climate Research Programme, such as the Climate and Cryosphere (CliC), Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR), the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX), Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) and the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE).

8.2 RESEARCH

8.2.1 Research policy and funding

Climate-related research in Denmark has grown naturally within an already existing framework of institutional activities. Denmark has not previously had a general national research programme for climate change and global change. However, as follow-up on Climate 2012, a committee was appointed to look at the possibilities for improving coordination of Danish research work on climate. This committee completed its work in December 2002. The work consisted primarily of mapping Danish climate research² and making recommendations on this basis.

Mapping was largely based on a questionnaire survey in which all known research centres with climate or climate-related research were contacted. Besides the narrowly focused scientific climate research, the survey has provided information on a broad section of climate-related research in Denmark.

The mapping exercise showed that there is great diversity of relatively extensive climate-relevant research. The research is primarily concentrated on basic knowledge, consequences of climate change and mitigation of anthropogenic climate change, whereas there has been very little research in adaptation to climate change.

The research is funded by the institutions' basic grants, programme grants, and the EU Commission framework programmes for research and technological development, and by the Danish research councils.

Danish climate research increased steadily in the period 1998 to 2001, from 172 man-years in 1998 to 189 man-years in 2001. The budget increased correspondingly from DKK 94 mill. in 1998 to DKK 114 mill. in 2001. The subsequent period has primarily seen a reduction in funding for Danish climate research.

Besides the resources shown in Table 8.1, a number of players are working with activities related to climate research, including activities under the Danish Energy Research Programme, the Nordic Energy Research Programme, Public Service Obligation funds and Risø National Laboratory's Wind Energy Department, see section 8.2.6. In 2001 these spent DKK 379 mill. on activities indirectly or partially related to activities concerning mitigation of anthropogenic climate changes.

On the basis of the mapping exercise, the committee recommended a general, combined evaluation to determine which areas within climate research should receive larger grants from the government research councils or from other public support schemes. In addition, the committee presented the following proposals for special action areas to strengthen the entire Danish research in the area.

Climate research focused on the North Atlantic region
Adaptation and vulnerability in relation to nature and environment
Emissions in the agricultural sector with a view to reducing greenhouse gas emissions
Analysis of extreme events in relation to the greenhouse effect
Development of climate models focused on feedback processes
Long-term stabilisation of atmospheric greenhouse concentrations and targets for greenhouse gas emissions
The effect of climate change on renewable energy

Lastly, the committee's research representatives proposed that more attention be paid in future to interdisciplinary cooperation, building up national and international networks, and disseminating the results, and that climate research be given a clearer place in the government's research policy.

The government will consider the possibilities for following the committee's recommendations.

Danish climate-related research is described in detail in the following sections, while a number of ongoing research projects are listed in Annex G.

8.2.2 Climate processes and studies including palaeoclimatic studies

DMI/The Danish Climate Centre and the Centre for Marine Forecasting carry out research into e.g. atmospheric and coupled atmos-pheric oceanic processes, which are important in connection with global climate change. These process studies include e.g. natural atmospheric oceanic interplay on time scales from years to decades, including main processes of importance for deep water formation in the North Atlantic.

Oceanographic projects include:

West-Nordic Ocean Climate is a joint Nordic project studying changes in the circulation of the North Atlantic and its significance on climate developments in the area. Work includes observations as well as data analysis and modelling. DMI is contributing to the project in collaboration with the Greenland Nature Institute. Focus is on the waters around Greenland with special emphasis on explaining the variation in fish stocks from changes in climatic and hydrographical conditions. More specifically, the emphasis is on transport of cod larvae from Icelandic spawning grounds to the waters around Greenland, as well as the developments in west-Greenland prawn populations.
Meridional Overturning Exchange with the Nordic Seas (MOEN). Due to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and an increased hydrological cycle, a gradual decline in the intensity of the Atlantic Ocean's meridional circulation system is to be expected over the 21^st century. Sub-elements of the system include the climatically important North Atlantic current, deepwater formation processes in the Nordic seas and the Labrador Sea, and the flow of heavy deep-water from the formation areas. MOEN will evaluate the effect of anthropogenic climate change on the ocean's meridional circulation through continuous observation and modelling of the exchange between the North Atlantic and the Nordic seas. DMI's task is to study variability and later development through ensemble simulation of the exchange across the Greenland-Scotland ridge from 1948–2002. The ensemble experiments are designed with at view to evaluating the dependence of the initial state of the development modelled, as well as quantifying the effect of the observed increased inflow to the Arctic Ocean, which is considered a trend which is linked to global warming.

Through assimilation of atmospheric reanalyses in atmospheric models, several studies are being carried out of atmospheric processes, partly in order to develop improved atmospheric models, and partly to detect changes in the external climate impacts. In addition, trends and variations in the latest tropospheric temperature observations from satellites (primarily MSU data) and radio soundings are being analysed and compared.

At DMI, work is going on to improve models for describing the thinning of the stratospheric ozone layer. This area is important, not only in relation to the Vienna Convention concerning protection of the stratosphere's ozone layer, but also in a climate context, because there is interaction with the greenhouse effect. DMI is also working on studies of the processes in the tropical tropopause that control water vapour entering the stratosphere, and on models for air traffic impact on the climate.

DMI has thus participated in all major European-American Arctic ozone research campaigns in the 1990s, such as EASOE, SESAME,THESEO, and THESEO2000/SOLVE, as well as in the tropical HIBISCUS campaign. DMI's stratospheric research is based on analyses of a broad range of available observations compared with analyses of the meteorological conditions in the stratosphere. Research includes analyses of the dispersal of ozone-depleted air from the Polar regions to intermediate latitudes, and experimental and theoretical model work concerning the formation of polar-stratospheric clouds. The aim is better understanding and modelling of the processes that lead to chemical depletion of the ozone layer.

In terms of the climate, this research is relevant because increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the depletion of the stratosphere's ozone layer are expected to lead to lower temperatures in the Polar stratosphere and to the formation of a more stable and more long-lasting Polar vortex. These conditions could lead to more widespread formation of polar-stratospheric clouds and stronger chemical ozone depletion lasting further into the spring months followed by the development of actual holes in the ozone layer over the Arctic, similar to what happens each Polar spring over the Antarctic. Arctic ozone depletion in the winter and spring months influences the cumulative dose of UV radiation in Denmark in the subsequent six months, and this impacts human health and plant production, and causes damage to buildings, roads etc. Efforts are being made to forecast this UV radiation under climate-change conditions. There is also experimental and model-theoretical work with cirrus clouds in the tropical tropopause and the effects of air traffic on the formation of cirrus clouds. The tropical cirrus clouds are important for additions of water vapour to the stratosphere. Stratospheric water vapour has a great influence on climate, and cirrus clouds have a direct influence on the climate.

The Geophysical Department at the Niels Bohr Institute for Astronomy, Physics and Geophysics at the University of Copenhagen is working mainly on global and general problems, such as the natural variability of the climate at all time scales and the role of basic physical/chemical processes in the climate system. Examples of projects are the international ice core projects, the aim of which is to analyse ice cores through Greenland's ice sheet in order to obtain a climate series that covers as long a period of time as possible and to obtain information about the end of the last ice age 11,500 years ago, and about the last warm period 130,000 years ago.

At Odense University research is going on within the areas of the stability of the climate system, the role of the ocean in the climate system and the chemical and biological development of the atmosphere and the ocean. The newly established Centre for Planet Research at the University of Copenhagen undertakes climate research in a more general sense - for example, it studies ice deposits not only on earth but also in the solar system.

GEUS works with the physical expressions of past climate changes, including ecosystems' response, temperature variations, changes in precipitation and sea level change. Another research topic is past variations in the circulation of the North Atlantic ocean currents and their importance for climate changes. GEUS also works with mass balance studies of the Greenland ice sheet, including its interaction with climate change and its effect on changes in water level.

NERI is carrying out research in how, since the last Ice Age, climate change has affected the biological structure of North Atlantic lakes in Greenland, Iceland and the Faroe Islands. Paleolimnological methods are being used to developprojection models.

8.2.3 Climate modelling and the climate of the future

With substantial support from the European Commission, DMI/Danish Climate Centre is working closely together with research institutions in Europe on analyses of the climatic consequences of increased greenhouse effect, depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer and variations in solar activity. The main emphasis is on Denmark and the European region, as well as the Arctic, but global research is also being carried out.

The work includes both developing models and using the models for scenario calculations of the climate of the future. The models include:

Relatively simple empirical models for describing local climate change and variations (downscaling) and for use in seasonal forecasting.
A regional dynamic atmosphere-climate model for calculating regional/local climate change and variations. The main focus is on Denmark, Europe, and Greenland.
Finely meshed global dynamic atmospheric climate models for calculating global/regional climate change and variations.
Global dynamic coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea-ice models, which are used for calculating climate change (primarily as a consequence of increased greenhouse effect) and internal variability in the climate on a 5-100 year time scale.

Both global³ and regional⁴ scenario calculations were carried out for Denmark, the Faroe Islands and Greenland based on IPCC's so-called SRES emissions scenarios - more specifically, scenarios A2 and B2. The results of the global simulations have been used in the IPCC's Third Assessment Report and new scenarios are being calculated for the Fourth Assessment Report from the IPCC. With regard to regional simulations, the most important focus area for Denmark is changes in (extreme) precipitation, soil moisture and storm activity. For Greenland, of special interest are changes in the simulated snow accumulation on the ice sheet and changes in permafrost conditions.

In the European climate project PRUDENCE⁵ (see also http://prudence.dmi.dk), which was coordinated by DMI, more than ten regional climate models are used to quantify uncertainties linked to projections of the climate of the future. The project shows among other things that the DMI system of regional climate models is representative of the majority of the contributing models, and conclusions based on simulations with this model can be considered as being well within the range of the model results.

The scenarios (also from PRUDENCE) are made available to all groups of researchers who are studying the effects of climate change, and to decision makers taking part in the preparation of a Danish strategy for adaptation to climate change.

The research on ozone as a greenhouse gas includes the influence of ozone on circulation in the stratosphere, together with radiation forcing and climate effects caused by changes in the ozone concentration. As opposed to the increase of CO₂ , changes of ozone concentrations vary greatly in both time and space. Although the climate effects of changing ozone levels are expected to be fairly modest at the surface of the earth, they will be significant in the stratosphere and the upper troposphere. As a result of the large spatial variations of ozone changes, and of the effect of ozone on long and short-wave radiation, several feedbacks are involved in the climatic response. One of these are related to increased hydrological activity, and is most dominant for ozone changes in the upper stratosphere.

In the research in this area, use is made of a global climate model and more simple radiation convection models. Throughout the 1990s DMI coordinated the projects ROCS (Role of Ozone in the Climate System) and SCORE (Studies of Climate-Ozone Relationships), financed by the EU, and took part in the project Ozone as a Climate Gas financed by the Nordic Council of Ministers.

Research at the Geophysical Department at the University of Copenhagen includes experimental/field-related, theoretical, and modelling aspects and helps to indicate methods that can be used for evaluating the climate of the future.

8.2.4 Effects of climate change

The effects of climate change on nature and ecosystems are covered by research at DMI, GEUS, NERI, Forest & Landscape Denmark (SL), the Danish Institute of Agricultural Sciences, the Risø National Laboratory, and the Danish Coastal Authority.

Forest & Landscape Denmark carries out research on the direct effect of changed CO₂ concentration on Danish forests through its cooperation with the Royal Veterinary and Agricultural University, under the auspices of which it was established in 2004.

NERI is working on the effects of climate change, especially in Greenland, and it is carrying out a standardised biological/ecological monitoring programme covering a broad spectrum of processes, fauna, and flora. In connection with this project the institute is carrying out research projects aimed at increasing knowledge of basic Arctic ecosystems.

NERI is carrying out research in the effect of climate change on biodiversity and function of the soil environment, in laboratory as well as field conditions. Work includes genetic variations in soil-living fauna, and the fauna's physiological adaptation to extreme climate conditions. NERI has research competence concerning tolerance limits for air pollution for particularly sensitive terrestrial ecosystems. In particular, the interaction between climate change, chemical substances and other factors is investigated.

NERI has built up competence focused on the function and dynamics of the Arctic marine ecosystem and it is investigating an Arctic fjord system and, within this, relationships between production and nutrient conversion.

Within freshwater, NERI has research competence concerning the effect of climate change on nutrient degradation and biological interaction in watercourses and lakes. Studies are being carried out for instance in Arctic, temperate and subtropical lakes, where biological interaction is being studied along climate gradients. Experimental studies are being made at an advanced test plant at Silkeborg. Models are being developed as tools of projection of nutrient transport as well as effects on freshwater ecosystems.

GEUS has competence concerning long-term variations in ecosystems in Denmark and Greenland and on the Faroe Islands caused by the climate. The institute is investigating how the ecosystems react to climate change in lakes and marine environments in Denmark and Greenland and in forests in Scandinavia. It also registers changes in sea level and their effect on the water cycle, including the formation of groundwater.

The Danish Institute of Agricultural Sciences works with the interaction of climate and agriculture, including effects of climate and atmospheric CO₂ on processes in the soil-plant system. Other aspects being studied include factors affecting greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, e.g. energy consumption in the agricultural sector, biomass for energy purposes, production and management of manure, biogas, and NH3 volatilisation, and greenhouse gases in relation to feeding strategies, manure handling, and soil tillage.

The Risø National Laboratory's work includes a number of sub-projects on the effects of climate change in developing countries, where the centre's activities include both analyses of vulnerability to climate change and adaptation strategies. The activities cover the energy, industrial, forestry, agricultural, transport, and waste sectors.

DMI is working with modelling of both regional and global changes of permafrost. Analyses of climate model calculations have been made, based provisionally on coarse-meshed global simulations. However, more refined techniques are being prepared, for use at both regional and local levels.

There is not at the present time special competence concerning the effects on human living conditions and health, which are particularly relevant in areas of the world where dramatic climate effects are expected/seen.

The Geographical Institute at the University of Copenhagen is doing research on soil-forming processes in relation to climate and vegetation that are of significance for, amongst other things, the exchange of greenhouse gases between soil and the atmosphere.

The Danish Coastal Authority is working with projects focusing on the effect of climate change on coastal erosion, and on alternatives to strengthening dikes in order to adapt to climate change.

8.2.5 Economic research, including evaluation of climate change and possibilities for mitigation

It is important to take account of the economic consequences of the different ways to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.

NERI's Centre for Analysis of Environment, Economy and Society has general competence in setting up and evaluating mechanisms for reducing emissions and special competence within the agricultural, energy and transport sectors. In addition, it possesses general knowledge of the different aspects of the Kyoto Protocol, including research competence concerning Clean Development Mechanism and Joint Implementation. Latest activities include preparation of guidelines for economic assessment of adaptation to climate change.

The Risø National Laboratory is involved in various research activities, primarily relating to policies and measures for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and relating to emission scenarios for greenhouse gases. The activities include development and implementation of international methodological standards for cost and sustainability analyses of reduction policies, discussion and testing of baseline approaches and various project and sector studies for the energy, transport, and agricultural sectors. The research activities have also included support for the Climate Secretariat and capacity and training programmes in developing countries. In addition, Risø has research activities concerning the Kyoto Protocol's flexible mechanisms, Emission Trading (ET), Joint Implementation (JI) and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).

Research at Aarhus University is concentrated on the judicial and politological aspects of climate policy and legislation at UN, EU and national levels. Cooperating with researchers from the Aarhus School of Business, the University of Southern Denmark, the Royal Veterinary and Agricultural University, and NERI, and following up cooperation established with the Centre for Social Science Research on the Environment at Aarhus University (today at NERI), general competence is assured in cross-disciplinary research into law, politology and economics. Research focuses on interaction between traditional instruments - flexible mechanisms (JI and CDM agreements), the specific significance of the decision process, and the effects of economic instruments (taxes and quotas and credits). Moreover, researchers have thorough knowledge of environment and energy policy and legislation. Such competence forms the basis for cooperation on a new Masters degree in Environment and Energy Law, cf. Chapter 9.

The University of Southern Denmark in Odense carries out research on climatic, ecological and anthropogenic impacts on marine environments, particularly the North Sea and the Baltic Sea in the period 1500-2000.

At the University of Copenhagen the main focus of climate research is the scientific aspects, but research is also being conducted in the climate field in an economic context, at the Economic Institute, for example.

At Roskilde University Centre, research is going on concerning scenario building within climate-stabilising policies, together with lifecycle analyses as a tool in economic evaluation of climate-stabilization strategies.

8.2.6 Research and development of technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to climate change

At the Technical University of Denmark (DTU), the energy/environment group and the group for urban ecology are basing their research on sustainable energy development and sustainable urban change, with energy savings and renewable energy as central parameters.

Research and development activities in the field of energy are not motivated solely by climate issues, but are relevant to climate issues, since they contribute to determining the overall framework for the CO₂ intensity of energy production and consumption in the future.

The Energy Research Programme (EFP), which is administered by the Danish Energy Authority, has for a number of years been supporting a broad range of research, development and demonstration projects in the energy field. The overall objective of EFP is to support the government's energy policy objective of providing cost-effective, environmentally friendly and safe energy supply, and to contribute to promoting the competitiveness of Danish enterprises in the field of energy. The activities range from social science research on the interaction between the energy sector and the rest of society to research in such advanced energy technologies as super conductors and fuel cells. Following reduced appropriations in 2002, the programme budget was increased in 2004, bringing overall activities under the programme up to approx. DKK 65 mill. On average, 50 percent of the activities under the Energy Research Programme are financed by EFP, one quarter by enterprises, and one quarter by other sources, i.e. research institutions, universities etc.

Activities relating to strategic energy research were also increased in 2003 with a special appropriation amounting to approx. DKK 50 mill. in each of the years 2003-05 for renewable energy research. The activities are administered by the Strategic Research Council under the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation, and are aimed at strengthening the knowledge base within renewable energy, for instance by supporting cross-disciplinary projects that involve technical, environmental, health, social, economic and political aspects. In the years 2005-08 the Ministry's energy research efforts will be strengthened by a total amount of approx. DKK 280 mill. The programme areas of these funds have not yet been fixed.

Further, energy research and development are supported by PSO funds (Public Service Obligation). The power system-responsible company Energinet.dk (established in January 2005) is continuing the support scheme for research and development in environmentally friendly power production technology, administering in 2005 support funds amounting to DKK 130 mill. Under this scheme support is given to activities relating to fuel cells and renewable energy, for instance solar cells, biomass, hydropower and wave energy. The association of power distribution companies, Elfor, administers a scheme of support to research and development within energy-efficient use of electricity. In 2005 more than DKK 25 mill. are available under the scheme, which aims at the development of energy-efficient products and processes in buildings, industry etc.

NERI is working with the main drivers behind greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector, the agricultural sector, and the transport sector. Forest & Landscape Denmark has competence in forestry, afforestation, etc. Together, these two institutions cover the aspects of land use in the open countryside for agricultural purposes, forestry and nature. Both institutions are looking at challenges related to use of biomass from agriculture and forestry as an energy source.

NERI makes general inventories of atmospheric emissions from all sectors and activities, including the greenhouse gases. The institution has special research competence in inventories from the agricultural sector, the transport sector, the industrial sector, and the energy sector. Forest & Landscape Denmark seeks generally to quantify how forestry and changes in land-use in relation to forests affect the forest ecosystems' carbon sinks and thus the potential binding of CO₂ in biomass and soil.

NERI has models for projecting greenhouse gas emissions, based for instance on projections of activities in relevant sectors.

NERI also has research competence in modelling of the dispersal of greenhouse gases locally and regionally, with special focus on Denmark, Europe, and Greenland. The Department for Atmospheric Environment is developing a CO₂ model (DEHM) for dispersal, transport, and surface movements. The model can be used to determine the size of sources and drains for CO₂ in Europe over specific areas and for estimating whether these areas comply with the Kyoto Protocol.

GEUS is researching impacts on the poles environment, and the driving forces for natural climate variations in long-term perspectives.

In cooperation with seven other countries, GEUS is the project manager for the EU-funded GESTCO project, in which the possibilities for finding geological storage possibilities near the European power stations and large industrial CO₂ point sources are being studied. A technical-economic model is also being developed in this project for planning and price calculations of different combinations of sources of CO₂ emissions, transport, and types of geological storage. Several geological formations in Denmark are known to be suitable for deposition. Publication of the results will be followed up by public hearings.

GEUS is also participating in the international research project SACS, in which CO₂ deposition from the Norwegian Sleipner gas field is being further developed. GEUS is studying the geological properties of the storage, including the extent of the sand formation, the tightness of the clay seal and the chemical effects of storing CO₂ in the form of carbonic acid where the acidity is very low.

Risø National Laboratory is carrying out research projects on the driving forces, emissions and possibilities for reduction, particularly in the developing countries.

Research at the Danish Institute of Agricultural Sciences focuses on the agricultural sector's possibilities for adapting to climate change by changing the cultivation system, including changes in fertilisation and the use of pesticides and adapting soil tillage methods. The aim is to develop adaptation options that also reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the sector.

8.3 SYSTEMATIC CLIMATE OBSERVATIONS

8.3.1 Atmospheric climate observations, including measurements of the composition of the atmosphere

DMI carries out continuous monitoring of key weather and climate parameters. In the climate monitoring programme, classic methods of measurement are used and new, satellite-based observation methods are being developed.

DMI operates around 200 automatic measuring stations in the Realm (Denmark, Greenland and the Faroe Islands) with a broad measuring programme ranging from automatic sea level or precipitation stations that measure only one parameter, to stations with a full measuring programme, including automatic cloud height detectors and weather type detectors. Since 2001, a separate network for climate observations has not been operated because of technological convergence between the climate and weather networks and a desire to rationalise the operational network. The net of stations is shown in the GCOS report, Annex H, Figures H-1 to H-5.

The past manual measuring network has now been almost fully replaced by automatic measuring stations. The aim was to eliminate sources of human errors, to realise a potential for rationalisation, and to significantly improve observation frequencies. Observations were previously taken every three hours, but, today, observations are required at 10-minute intervals from the new stations, which cannot be done manually. The purpose is to achieve greater coherency between the different types of stations so that the number of station types and spare parts can be reduced as much as possible without loss of quality.

To collect precipitation data DMI also operates a network of about 450 manual precipitation stations, which are mainly used to map the precipitation climatology. Measurements are collected daily via the telephone and are thus available very quickly after the measurements were taken.

Besides being of use for national programmes, the observations concern Denmark's international contribution in the form of observation components from Danish territory to the worldwide meteorological observation network WWW - World Weather Watch. Other international programmes for mapping weather and climate include the GCOS (Global Climate Observing System), coordinated by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).

TABLE 8.1 AVERAGE DATA ACCESSIBILITY IN 2004

Source: Danish Meteorological Institute

Type	2004
Automatic weather stations, incl. Greenland and the Faroe Islands	98.6%
Satellite reception	98.6%
Weather radar	98.7%
Radio sounding, Denmark/Faroe Islands	95.9%
Radio sounding, Greenland	97.6%
Storm surge stations	98.9%

The Danish observation network is characterised by high average data availability, as appears in Table 8.1.

The meteorological observations are stored in DMI's database, and observations from many Danish stations are available in electronic form from 1872, water level measurements from 1890, and measurements of the surface temperature of the sea from 1931. The number of daily observations throughout the Realm is around 75,000, and the total number of observations in the database is approximately 300,000,000.

TABLE 8.2 THE NETWORK OF SURFACE OBSERVATION STATIONS

Source: Danish Meteorological Institute

Type	DMI			Cooperation partners
Type	Den- mark	Green- land	Faroe Islands	Den- mark	Green- land	Faroe Islands
Weather stations	50	25	4	21	20	0
Automatic precipitation intensity stations	0	0	0	79	0	0
Manual precipitation stations	452	1	8	0	1	18
Sun recording stations	19	0	0	6	0	0
Automatic sea level stations	15	0	1	65	0	0

The meteorological observation systems that are of most interest in a climate context are:

The surface observation system
The radio sounding network
The weather radar network
The ice observation service

Each of these systems is described in the following, together with DMI's stratospheric observations and oceanographic observations.

Surface observation network

For historical and practical reasons, the surface observation network consists of many different types of stations. Apart from the 450 manual precipitation stations and five air-bases and airports where there are statutory requirements for manual observations, the network is 100% automated. Table 8.2 provides an overview of the network. DMI is receiving a growing number of observations from cooperation partners in all parts of the Realm, so these are included in Table 8.2.

Besides the observations from the Danish land areas, DMI has an observation agreement with about 50 Danish, Greenlandic and Faroese ships, which carry out systematic observations in the North Sea, the Baltic, the North Atlantic and the waters around Denmark. In addition, Denmark is a partner in the EGOS/SURFMAR cooperation on collection of weather observations from ships and drifting weather buoys in the North Atlantic, since DMI has strategically well placed satellite reception facilities in Kangerlussuaq (Greenland) and in Copenhagen. Danish observations are also included, and are coordinated with EUCOS (European Coordinated Observation System), which is organised by EUMETNET (European Meteorological Network).

The radio sounding network

In radio sounding, a small, fully automatic weather station is sent up by balloon. The balloon can reach a height of about 35 kilometres, and all the way up it sends observations of temperature, pressure, humidity, and wind velocity via radio to a receiving station. Radio soundings provide measurement of the atmosphere's vertical profile for use in analyses of the condition of the atmosphere. They also enable measurement of ozone and radioactivity.

The DMI operates radio sounding stations in Copenhagen, in Thorshavn on the Faroe Islands and in Danmarkshavn, Illoqqortoormiit, Tasiilaq, Narsarsuaq, and Aasiaat in Greenland. Soundings are also received from two so-called ASAP (Automated Shipboard Aerological Programme) containers, which are portable radio sounding stations designed for use on ships. DMI has had an agreement for many years with a Greenland shipping company on ship-borne radio soundings in the North Sea and the North Atlantic. The radio sounding stations and the ASAP units take two daily soundings, although the ASAP units do not take a sounding if they are near a land radio sounding station, such as the one in Thorshavn. The total number of soundings per year is in the order of 5,800.

Weather radar network

With radars in Sindal and on Stevns, Rømø and Bornholm, Denmark's network of weather radars provides almost 100% coverage, which enables comparison with ground-truth data from a network of land-based precipitation stations.

The weather radar network has a high spatial resolution and is therefore able to provide precipitation-climatological information at a very high degree of detail nationally, regionally, and locally. By calibrating radar data against surface-based point-precipitation measurements, the latest research results show that good absolute accuracy can be achieved. The present radar network has a data frequency of six data sets per hour and the spatial resolution is 2x2 km².

Satellite data

Denmark contributes to space-based observations through membership of the European Space Agency ESA and the European meteorological satellite organisation EUMETSAT, and DMI has facilities for receiving satellite data in Denmark and Greenland.

In cooperation with EUMETSAT, DMI is managing the development of a so-called satellite application facility (SAF) for use of GPS data for weather and climate monitoring and is also participating in the development of SAFs for oceanography and sea-ice, together with ozone and UV radiation.

8.3.2 Ice observation service

DMI is responsible for systematic monitoring of the ice conditions in the waters around Greenland. Observations of the ice conditions have been collected for about 125 years, and there is a very large quantity of data in graphic form such as monthly surveys, ice maps, etc. Since 1959 the waters south of Kap Farvel, in particular, have been intensively monitored with a view to making shipping in the area safer. Ice maps are prepared several times a week with detailed information on relevant ice conditions. All new ice maps are in vector-graphic form. Since 2000 weekly maps have been prepared showing the ice conditions all the way round Greenland. The maps are based on satellite data and are essentially an automatically produced product that is primarily intended as a basis for analyses of climatic conditions for Greenland and the surrounding waters. DMI is carrying out research in mapping the extent of sea-ice through the past centuries.

8.3.3 Stratospheric observations

DMI is engaged in studies of the physical processes resulting in changes of the ozone layer, and stratospheric monitoring of relevance to the climate of the future. The DMI research and systematic observations are underpinned by the recommendations of the Montreal Protocol and form part of the research to which Denmark is committed by its ratification of the Vienna Convention of 22 March 1985 for the Protection of the Ozone Layer.

Measurements of the ozone layer and UV radiation are made at Copenhagen and Kangerlussuaq (Søndre Strømfjord), using Brewer ozone spectrometers. At Pituffik (Thule) measurements are made of the ozone layer, UV radiation, global radiation, aerosols and stratospheric NO2, using a Dobson spectrometer, SAOZ spectrometer, UV spectroradiometer, pyranometer and aerosol radiometer. In order to monitor the ozone depletion in the lower stratosphere in the winter and spring months, and with a view to establishing ozone profile climatology, DMI has since 1989 launched ozone probes from a number of stations in Greenland. Since January 1993 ozone probes have been launched each week from Ittoqqortoormiit (Scoresbysund) on the east coast of Greenland.

Observatories operated by DMI in Greenland are primary (Pituffik and Kangerlussuaq) and secondary (Ittoqqortoormiit) Arctic stations in the Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC). This is a worldwide network of measuring stations equipped with standardised instrumentation of verified high quality for monitoring the condition of the stratosphere and the processes that lead to chemical depletion of the ozone layer. DMI works with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder (FTIR instrument in Pituffik), the University of Rome (Lidar in Pituffik), the National Radiological Protection Board, UK (UV radiometer in Pituffik) and SRI-International, USA (Lidar in Kangerlussuaq). NDSC is supported by the International Ozone Commission (IOC), UNEP and WMO, and DMI takes part in the NDSC steering committee (http://www.ndsc.ncep.noaa.gov/).

DMI’s measurements are reported to databases under the Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC) and World Ozone and UV-radiation Data Centre under the WMO programme Global Atmosphere Watch and they are used to verify satellite data as well as to compare with results from climate models.

8.3.4 Reanalyses and climate databases

The DMI/Danish Climate Centre cooperates with the Pan European meteorological forecasting centre in the UK, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, on building up and using so-called global reanalyses, which are a fundamental set of data for understanding climatic variations and changes based on all measurements globally over a 40-year period. In addition, databases of the climate trend in the past 125 years or so are created and maintained, cf. 8.3.1.

FIGURE 8.1 ANNUAL MEAN THICKNESS OF THE OZONE LAYER OVER DENMARK 1979-2004 IN DU (DOBSON UNITS). MEASUREMENTS UP TO AND INCLUDING 1992 FROM THE NASA TOMS INSTRUMENT, WHILE MEASUREMENTS AFTER 1992 ARE BY DMI'S BREWERINSTRUMENT IN COPENHAGEN.

Source: Danish Meteorological Institute

8.3.5 Oceanographic climate observations

DMI/Centre for Marine Forecasting, cooperating with the Danish Coastal Authority, the Royal Danish Administration for Navigation and Hydrography and local authorities, monitors the sea level at a number of Danish localities.

Jointly with the Greenland Nature Institute, DMI carries out annual oceanographic observations in standard sections off the west coast of Greenland, aiming at monitoring climate change in the Greenland marine environment and using the data in assessments of the future fishery ressources. In recent years this programme has been extended to include stations in fiords near Sisimiut, in order to be able to understand the causes of the fairly recent crab fishery.

DMI is also processing oceanographic data from the annual trawl cruises made by the Greenland Nature Institute. Monitoring stations are shown in Figure 8.2.

FIGURE 8.2 STANDARD HYDROGRAPHIC SECTIONS OFF THE WEST COAST OF GREENLAND. SOUTHERN STATIONS – INCLUDING SISIMIUT – ARE OPERATED BY DMI, WHILE NORTHERN STATIONS ARE OPERATED BY THE GREENLAND NATURE INSTITUTE.

Source: Danish Meteorological Institute

8.3.6 Terrestrial observations related to climate changes

Monitoring of snow cover, sea-ice and surface radiation is reported in sections 8.3.1 and 8.3.2. Denmark does not carry out further terrestrial observations that can be related to climate change, but Denmark's climate related research (cf. 8.2) includes monitoring and studying the effect of terrestrial conditions.

8.3.7 Development assistance for establishment and maintenance of observation and monitoring systems

From 1997 to 2004 DMI participated in a development project together with the meteorological institute of Ghana (Meteorological Services Department - MSD). The purpose of the project included re-establishing a network of meteorological stations in the country, thereby ensuring collection of data. At the same time, it was to improve communication and use of the collected data. The project was completed in 2004. At the end of the project, MSD had an efficient network of around 300 observation stations registering the usual meteorological parameters.

DMI also coordinated the project `Use of climatic seasonal forecasts to improve cultivation strategies for crops in West Africa'. The purpose of this project was to examine the possibilities for adapting cultivation practice for a selected agricultural crop (peanuts) in Ghana, using the best available seasonal forecasts for the climate. The project was funded by the Council for Developing Country Research (RUF).

In 2004 DMI and AGRHYMET in Niger prepared a proposal for a project on the use of satellite data and preparation of seasonal forecasts. However, contrary to expectations, the necessary project funds will probably not be available.

Notes

1 Climate Change Research – Danish Contributions, Jørgensen et al., 2001

2 Mapping of Danish climate research and proposals for strengthening action areas. Prepared for the Working Group for a Danish Climate Research Programme, ECON Center for Economic Analysis, December 2002

3 The climate of the 21st century: Transient simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, Stendel et al. 2000

4 Christensen and Christensen, 2003; Kiilsholm et al., 2004.

5 Christensen et al. 2000; 2005