Denmark's Climate Policy Objectives and Achievements

Denmark's Climate Policy Objectives and Achievements

1. Progress in 2005

Since the report of the Brundtland Commission ”Our Common Future” from 1987, Denmark's climate policy has developed as an interaction between all sectors, international climate policy, and results from related scientific research.

Thus, since the end of the 1980s and during the 1990s a considerable number of measures to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases have been implemented.

The developments in Denmark's emissions and removals of greenhouse gases from the base year to 2003 (the most recent inventory year), as they are to be inventoried under the Kyoto Protocol, are shown in Table 1.1.

The relatively great variations in previous total emissions and removals of greenhouse gases are especially due to variations in Denmark's exchange of electricity with neighbouring countries. Furthermore, emissions of CO₂ from energy consumption vary considerably from year to year, depending on winter temperatures.

In order to facilitate the assessment of developments in CO₂ emissions associated with Denmark's own energy consumption in normal winters, the figures are shown in Table 1.2 with corrections made for exchange of electricity and variations in temperature.

TABLE 1.1: DENMARK'S EMISSIONS AND REMOVALS OF GREENHOUSE GASES INVENTORIED ACCORDING TO REGULATIONS UNDER THE KYOTO PROTOCOL

	Base year¹	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003
Million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents	69.6	80.0	73.8	76.2	79.7	76.8	90.0	80.2	76.0	72.9	68.2	69.6	68.9	73.9
Index (base year=100)	100	115	106	109	114	110	129	115	109	105	98	100	99	106

1 In accordance with the Kyoto Protocol, the base year is composed of emissions of CO₂, methane and nitrous oxide in 1990 and emissions of so-called industrial greenhouse gases in 1995. In accordance with Denmark's legal commitment under the EU burden sharing of the total EU reduction commitment of 8% under the Kyoto Protocol, the base year is shown here without correction for imports of electricity in 1990. The base year – and thereby Denmark's exact reduction commitment – will be set finally in 2006.

TABLE 1.2: DENMARK'S GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND REMOVALS CORRECTED FOR EXCHANGE OF ELECTRICITY AND TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS

	Base year¹	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003
Million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents	77.5	80.0	77.9	77.0	76.6	76.2	75.4	74.7	72.8	71.9	70.3	69.6	68.4	67.9
Index (base year=100)	100	102	101	99	99	98	97	96	94	93	91	90	88	88

1 The base year is composed of emissions of CO₂, methane and nitrous oxide in 1990 and emissions of so-called industrial greenhouse gases in 1995. Since Denmark's legal commitments under the EU burden sharing of the total EU reduction commitment of 8% under the Kyoto Protocol is to be seen in relation to a base year without corrections, the figures in the table can only be used to illustrate the effects of measures taken to limit CO₂ emissions associated with Denmark's own energy consumption.

Denmark's efforts and progress with national measures, e.g. relating to national energy consumption, preferably by choosing other fuels (especially natural gas instead of coal and oil), expansion in decentralised cogeneration of heating and power and renewable energy, and energy saving are reflected in Table 1.2, since there is a 12% drop in total emissions of greenhouse gases from 1990 to 2003.

These results are not less remarkable, if compared to economic development in Denmark, where the GDP has grown, on average, 2% annually during the same period. Furthermore, it has been possible to keep the corrected gross energy consumption fairly constant. In the Annex to this report, a number of indicators illustrate progress concerning emissions, emissions seen in relation to economic development, emissions per capita, share of renewable energy, decentralised cogeneration of heating and power as part of electricity and district heating production, gross energy consumption, CO₂ intensity in energy consumption, etc.

How the various measures have contributed to progress has also been investigated more closely with the Effort Analysis published in April 2005. As described in section 4.1 together with the basis for the analysis, this analysis demonstrates that the effect of the Danish efforts in 1990-2001 corresponds to approx. 21 million tonnes of CO₂ annually in 2008-2012. Only about 16 million tonnes of CO₂ annually in 2008-2012 correspond to the effect on emissions of greenhouse gases in Denmark in the former projection from February 2003. The remaining 5 million tonnes would not have been realized as a reduction in Danish emissions, since considerable exports of electricity were expected in 2008-2012, according to the projection from February 2003. In spite of a reduction due to exports of electricity, the effect of the Danish efforts in 1990-2001 is still substantial. This previous effort will also lead to reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases in 2008-2012.

In relation to the Kyoto Protocol, for the period 2008-2012 the EU has committed itself to reducing emissions of greenhouse gases on average to 8% below the level in the so-called base year; 1990 for CO₂, methane, and nitrous oxide and either 1990 or 1995 for industrial greenhouse gases. As part of the internal EU Burden Sharing Agreement, Denmark has committed itself to a 21% reduction.

The Climate Strategy of 2003 stipulated that further cost-effective measures should be implemented with a view to Denmark's compliance with its legal reduction commitment. Since the Kyoto Protocol provides the possibility to arrange climate efforts including international as well as domestic reduction efforts, a significant element of the Government's Climate Strategy is to combine cost-effective domestic measures with the flexible mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol – Emissions Trading and the project mechanisms Joint Implementation and Clean Development Mechanism.

The implementation of the Climate Strategy includes:

Establishment of an interdepartmental climate committee, to ensure follow-up on the Climate Strategy,
Implementation of the EU Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS), which has led to allowance regulation of about half of the Danish greenhouse gas emissions since 1 January 2005 and establishment of a national allowance registry,
Initiation of a policies and measures project, which is to investigate the possibilities of implementing additional cost-effective measures and forwarding a report on this to the Climate Committee in 2006,
Agreement on the Action Plan for the Aquatic Environment III (VMP III), which will also reduce emissions of nitrous oxide from agriculture,
Allocation of funds to JI and CDM projects and making agreements and entering into contracts on specific projects with other countries as well as implementation of such projects.

The interdepartmental climate committee will follow up regularly on whether the new measures implemented are sufficient to secure Denmark's compliance with its commitments under the Kyoto Protocol and the EU Burden Sharing Agreement.

An up-dated projection of Denmark's emissions and removals of greenhouse gases in 2004-2030 was prepared in May 2005. This up-dated baseline projection (`with (existing) measures' projection) is based on, e.g. an up-dated energy projection, which now includes expected effects of the implemented EU allowance directive (only the cost effects of introducing the allowance system – i.e., without the effect of the actual allowance, which for the period 2008-2012 will not be decided until 2006). Concerning agriculture, the expected effects of the VMP III have now been included in the baseline projection.

The result of this projection of emissions is shown in Table 1.3 together with the expected effects of allocations of funds to JI and CDM projects in 2003-2008.

As shown in Table 1.3, the Danish deficit is estimated at 13 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents annually, based on Denmark's legal commitment according to the EU Burden Sharing Agreement. This is based on a situation where no correction has been made for the particularly large imports of electricity in 1990.

Taking into account Denmark's assumption regarding corrections being made for imports of electricity in the base year 1990, cf. the political declarations of the Council and the Commission, the deficit is reduced to approx. 8 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents annually in 2008-2012, as shown in Table 1.3.

In connection with the Government's proposal for a Climate Strategy for Denmark, a projection showing the expected developments without additional measures was presented in February 2003. Here the deficit was set at 20-25 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents annually in 2008-2012. The new projection from May 2005 thus represents a reduction of approx. 12 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents annually in 2008-2012.

TABLE 1.3 THE RESULTS OF DENMARK'S LATEST “WITH EXISTING MEASURES ONLY” PROJECTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND THE DEFICIT COMPARED TO THE EU BURDEN SHARING OF THE EU REDUCTION TARGET UNDER THE KYOTO PROTOCOL.

Source: 1990-2003: The National Inventory Report (NIR), the National Environmental Research Institute (NERI), April 2005. 2004-2030: Projection of greenhouse gas emissions, Memorandum to the Danish EPA, NERI, May 2005.

Million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents	Base year 1990/95¹	2003	“2010”²	“2015”³	2020	2025	2030
CO₂⁴	52.9	59.2	59.0	58.8	55.2	54.2	54.9
Methane (CH₄)	5.7	5.9	5.6	5.3	5.2	5.2	5.2
Nitrous oxide (N₂O)	10.7	8.1	6.9	6.8	6.6	6.5	6.5
Industrial gases, HFCs, PFCs, and SF₆	0.3	0.7	0.8	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.2
Total emissions	69.6	73.9	72.3	71.4	67.2	66.1	66.8
Of which is export of electricity: (- means import)	-6.3	6.9	4.4	2.3	1.4	0.9	2.7
Kyoto target (–21%)			55.0
Reductions in other countries from funds allocated to JI and CDM projects			4.5
Deficit incl. JI and CDM			7.8/12.8⁵

1 Base year for CO₂, methane, and nitrous oxide is 1990. In accordance with the Kyoto Protocol, 1995 is chosen as the base year for industrial gases.

2 ”2010” stands for mean emissions in 2008-2012

3 ”2015” stands for mean emissions in 2013-2017

4 Here net emission of CO₂ inventoried under the Kyoto Protocol, because removal of CO₂ in forests planted since 1990 is included cf. protocol article 3.3.

5 The deficit has been inventoried both on the basis of the assumption of taking imports of electricity in 1990 into account, cf. the political statement of the Council and the Commission and on the basis of Denmark's legal commitment under the EU Burden Sharing Agreement.

TABLE 1.4: GREENLAND'S CO₂ EMISSIONS 1990-2003

Source: 1990-2003: The National Inventory Report (NIR), the National Environmental Research Institute (NERI), April 2005.

	Base year¹	1991	1992	1993²	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003
Mill. tonnes of CO₂ -equivalents	0.6	0.6	0.6	-	0.5	0.5	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.7	0.6	0.6	0.6
Index (base year =100)	100	98	95	-	79	84	90	92	88	94	106	99	92	102

1 In accordance with the Kyoto Protocol, the base year for Greenland's CO₂-emissions is 1990.

2 There are no data available for 1993.

With the choice of method, the deficit expresses the need to purchase allowances from abroad or to implement new measures outside the sectors subject to allowances. So, as a result of the introduction of the CO₂ allowance scheme, the deficit is in principle not directly comparable to the deficit in the Government's Climate Strategy, since the cost effects of the allowances are included, whereas ultimately the allocation of allowances decides the climatic effects of the scheme. Note that projection, and therefore also the deficit, is based on model predictions, which are subject to uncertainty. This applies, not least, to expected developments in energy prices, prices of CO₂ allowances, and the developments in the Nordic electricity market, which have a direct influence on the size of exports of electricity. The implementation of the EU allowance scheme has, however, created a basis for greater certainty regarding the fulfilment of Denmark's climate commitments under the Kyoto Protocol and the EU Burden Sharing Agreement.

As shown in Table 1.3, there will still be a deficit compared to Denmark's target under the Kyoto Protocol, in spite of the implementation of the additional measures mentioned above.

With the EU allowance scheme, the primary instrument for fulfilling Denmark's climate commitments is secured. Other cost-effective measures will also be considered. In this context, the Policies and Measures Project's identification of additional cost-effective measures is expected to contribute to removing the deficit entirely.

Furthermore, sector-policy measures that can be of climatic relevance in the short or long term will be implemented. This includes the long-term energy strategy – Energy Strategy 2025 and the Action Plan for Strengthened Energy-Saving Efforts².

Greenland is a part of the Realm³. In 2002, Greenland agreed to that no territorial reservation should be taken in connection with the Kingdom of Denmark's ratification of the Kyoto Protocol⁴.

As it is shown in Table 1.4, Greenland's CO₂ emissions are less than 1% of Denmark's total greenhouse gas emissions, and in 2003 they were almost at the same level as in 1990.

Since the 1970s the Home Rule has been interested in using hydropower for energy supply. After several systematic studies and the adoption of energy policy guidelines, the first hydropower plant could be taken into use in 1993. It supplies Nuuk with electricity and has since it was commissioned resulted in an annual reduction of CO₂ emissions of around 55,000 tonnes, or about 10% of the total CO₂ emissions in Greenland. In 2005 another hydropower plant in Tasiilaq commenced operation, with an expected CO₂ reduction of 3,446 tonnes CO₂ per year. A small hydropower plant in South Greenland is now under construction to supply Qaqortoq and Narsaq. When it starts operation in early 2008, it is expected to contribute with displacement of oil corresponding to 4,800 m³ or 12,700 tonnes CO₂ annually.

Progress has also been made within the waste sector, with the establishment of waste incineration plants at the six largest towns - covering about 70% of the population - and use of some of the surplus heat from the incineration process for district heating. Waste incineration to some extent replaces fuel oil for heating and reduces methane emissions that would otherwise occur if the waste were deposited at landfill sites.

Greenland is facing new and great challenges, partly because of the country's increasing energy consumption and the increasing oil prices, and partly because global climate change is especially affecting the Arctic and threatens Greenland's way of life and hunting culture. Greenland has a global obligation to live up to the Climate Convention and the Kyoto Protocol.

Greenland will work to promote use of renewable and environmentally friendly energy (water, wind power, solar energy, hydrogen) which in the long term will reduce CO₂ emissions and make Greenland less dependent on fossil fuels.