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Green Technology Foresight about environmentally friendly products and materials 1 Introduction
1.1 The focus of the projectThe objective of this project is to identify future environmental potentials and risks and study the possible environmentally based competitive advantages related to the three generic technologies[1]: nanotechnology, biotechnology and information and communications technology (ICT). The project is carried out as a green technology foresight on the selected generic technologies, which often are seen as future societal growth promoters in Denmark as in most other industrialized countries. Furthermore are green visions often highlighted in relation to the three areas. In the foresight process, the environmental and health potentials and risks of nano-, bio- and information and communications technologies are identified and assessed based on their present and possible future lifecycles from ‘cradle’ to ‘grave’, including production and use. The three technology areas have been selected by the Danish Environmental Protection Agency, reflecting the central role these technologies are given in both research and technology policy, but also reflecting the environmental potentials and risks, which often are highlighted. The project focuses on aspects of environment and health in general and on consequences related to chemical aspects in particular. On this background the aim has been to make recommendations for integrated environmental and innovation policies in order to promote the environmental perspectives and to reduce future negative impacts on environment and health. The foresight focuses on Danish developments, but additionally draws on international developments with regard to environmental aspects and the dynamics of research, innovation and application. 1.2 The three generic technologiesAs generic – meaning general purpose – technologies the societal impacts of the three selected technologies have the possibility to be profound. There are, however, quite large difference between the three technologies, when it comes to their degree of maturity and the amount of experience with their previous and present applications – differences of such importance, that they have to be accounted for and demands different approaches in the analysis. The differences may also serve as an inspiration for the analysis of the possible future innovation paths and environmental potentials by learning from the more mature technologies and their implementation. The link between technological development and environment and health impacts are complex – especially in the case of such broad generic technologies as the ones studied. The impact on environment and health, including the chemical aspects, are in some cases directly linked to the technologies, but will in most cases be of an indirect nature linked through the combination with other technologies in the different areas of application and the driving forces shaping these applications. In relation to ICT there are already quite some experiences with the impact of this technology as it already has been applied within many parts of society. Knowledge and practical experiences are available about the environmental aspects of ICT as shaped in interaction between the more general dynamics within ICT, the dynamics within the application areas of ICT and the dynamics of ICT application in consumption. While ICT is regarded as a technology that substitutes consumption of physical products with virtual products and thus is expected to reduce environmental impacts, the related growth in the use of ICT equipment and infrastructure may outperform the realized improvements. Since the 1970’ies biotechnology has been predicted an industrial future within a number of areas, including chemical and pharmaceutical industry, food and beverage industry, energy production and agriculture, and as having both specific potentials in combating pollution as well as being capable of resource savings. Pharmaceutical applications have increased and constitute the major part of biotechnology development so far, which has been labelled the first phase of biotechnology applications. The use in modifying plants has been termed the second phase of (new) biotechnology, and these developments still face a number of uncertainties. Industrial or white biotechnology has been termed the third phase and has been envisioned to have the possibility of developing in the coming years, and to have the potentials of reducing the environmental impacts of a number of industrial processes. Nanotechnology is the least mature of the three generic technologies and areas of study. Up till now only a few products based on nanotechnology and nanoscience have been introduced on the market. Nanotechnology has even not always been seen as a coherent scientific and technology area in itself, but more as a heading for a series of new interactions between chemistry, physics and biology. The expectations to the societal impact of this area of research and technology are largely due to the many possible fields of application, including the possibilities for producing stronger materials with new properties and reducing the physical dimensions of products and components. 1.3 The objectives of the projectThe objectives of the Green Technology Foresight project have been:
On the background of the inertia in the existing knowledge, technological and industrial systems, the potentials for raising an environmental development agenda in these systems will be discussed. Drawing on these discussions, strategies and policy measures that may contribute to coherency in the environmental and innovation policy efforts will be pointed at. 1.4 Initiation and fundingThe project has been financed by the Danish Environmental Protection Agency and has run 2004 - 2005. The Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management (IPL) at the Technical University of Denmark (DTU) and the System Analysis Department at Risoe National Laboratory, together with the Institute of Product Development (IPU) have been responsible for the project. The steering group of the project has consisted of Niels Henrik Mortensen, the Danish Environmental Protection Agency (chairman), Michael Søgaard Jørgensen, DTU and Maj Munch Andersen, Risoe. The analysis on nanotechnology has been conducted by Maj Munch Andersen, Risoe with contributions from Birgitte Rasmussen, Risoe and Stig Irving Olsen, IPU and Marianne Strange, Risoe as consultant. The analysis on biotechnology has been conducted by Annegrethe Hansen IPL DTU and Henrik Wenzel, IPU. The analysis on ICT has been conducted by Michael Søgaard Jørgensen, Thomas Thoning Pedersen and Ulrik Jørgensen, IPL DTU, Morten Falch, CICT DTU and Ole Willum, IPU. The project secretary has been Christine Molin, IPU. Important target groups of the project are:
The project has been carried out concurrently with a number of other activities, focusing on the development of environmentally friendly materials and products. A combined environmental and innovation strategy and a focus on green products and materials were amongst other recommendations of the Green Technology Foresight project coordinated by the Danish Ministry for Science, Technology and Innovation 2002-2003. Also the nanotechnology foresight, carried out within the Danish Ministry for Science, Technology and Innovation in 2004, pointed to the importance of involving dialogues about the environmental aspects as part of the innovation activities. Finally the concurrent EU’s Environmental Technologies Action Plan (ETAP) (see for example (Commission of the European Communities 2003) includes visions with regard to integration of innovation and environmental considerations. 1.5 Project activitiesThe main activities and outputs of the project have been as shown in the Table 1.1. Table 1.1: Activities and outputs from the project.
The research within each of the three technology areas has been composed of the following elements:
The concrete design of the analysis within each the three technology areas is described in the beginning of each of the technology chapters (chapter 3: ICT; chapter 4: biotechnology; chapter 5: nanotechnology). 1.6 Overall project resultsThe project has developed the following type of results:
An important element in the policy measures and the policy recommendations is the interaction and integration of policy measures focusing on environmental aspects, research, innovation and areas of application in relation to the three technology areas; including
Interviews and three workshops on plastics, on intelligent products and processes, and on policy, respectively, and an international conference on eco-innovation (where a draft of this report was presented[2]) have contributed to dialogue and knowledge building on competences and on policy. Participants in these have included companies, public researchers, governmental authorities, consultancies, and environmental and consumer organizations. These activities have further demonstrated the value, if not necessity, of continuing such dialogue processes, because they can contribute to knowledge building and exchange on technological and environmental dynamics, and on societal and policy drivers for innovation with an environmental perspective. 1.7 Introduction to the structure of the reportChapter 2 presents the theoretical and methodological framework for the green technology foresight by presenting the analytical approach to the analysis of innovation paths, environmental aspects and policy recommendations for combined environmental and innovation efforts. In chapter 3 the present and possible future innovation paths within ICT development and application and the related environmental potentials and risks are analysed. Focus is on the environmental knowledge base, design and control of processes and products, intelligent products and applications, and transport, logistics and mobility. In chapter 4 biotechnology applications with the potential of increasing fermentation efficiency, reducing resource use, reducing chemical use and contributing to pollution remediation have been analysed. These applications have been related to general biotechnology development, and the drivers for exploiting the environmental benefits discussed. Nanotechnology is analysed in chapter 5. A general mapping of the public and private innovation activities has been made, pointing to possible application with environmental perspectives, as well as pointing to potential health and safety issues which have to be addressed. The domination of early stage development and R&D activities has lead to a focus on the role of environmental perspectives in the search and R&D agenda setting. Chapter 6 summaries the analysis of the three technology areas and develops recommendations for policy initiatives addressing interaction and integration of policy measures focusing on environmental aspects, research, innovation and areas of application in relation to the three technology areas in Denmark and internationally. Recommendations for the organization of decision-making with a broad involvement of stakeholders (governance) is developed as an integrated part hereof. Footnotes[1] The term general purpose technologies is often used, as well [2] Eco-innovation: Potentials and challenges of tomorrow's technologies Perspectives for business, Europe and the environment High Level Conference, Copenhagen, 19-20 April 2005 (see http://www.frontlinien.dk/eco/index.htm
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