A Model for the Generation of Waste

Preface

Concern about development in the amount of waste, resources used and environmental problems associated with the various means of waste management is growing. Detailed and comprehensive waste statistics have been developed and targets for future amounts and management of different categories of waste have been decided. Until now, however, no detailed model for the future development of waste has been available. This report presents a simple scenario model linking the development in the amount of waste to economic activities. Waste from individual sources and fractions of the ISAG statistics is linked to categories of private consumption and production by branches of the macroeconomic model ADAM, which is used for official forecasts of the Danish economy. The model converts forecasts of economic development to scenarios for the generation of waste assuming that waste generation per economic activity is unchanged relative to 1996. By generating alternative scenarios the model can be used to analyse how economic changes affect the generation of waste. In waste planning the scenarios may be used as baseline scenarios. In order to make proper forecasts, however, the model calculations have to be supplemented with evaluations of changes in waste generation per economic activity, e.g. changes due to legislation and technological changes, etc., which is beyond the scope of the present model.

The waste generation model was developed by researchers at the Systems Analysis Department of Risø National Laboratory with the support of the Council for Recycling and Cleaner Technology.

The project was overseen by an advisory group comprised of: