A Scenario Model for the Generation of Waste

1. Introduction

The generation of solid waste by society necessitates the availability of management facilities to deal with the transport, treatment and final discharge of waste residues. Moreover, the various means of waste management require different facilities and cause different environmental problems. A prerequisite for waste planning, including changes in the capacity of waste management facilities and the evaluation of future environmental problems, is the availability of good projections of waste generation.

The present report documents a first very simple scenario model for predicting waste generation from primary sources, i.e. from households and enterprises, excluding waste management facilities. The model links the generation of various categories of waste to different economic activities assuming a proportional change in the waste generated and the relevant waste-generating economic activities. As the available data on waste are limited, coupling of the amount of waste to economic activities in the model is subject to some uncertainty, and represents our best estimates of how they are coupled. Bearing its limitations in mind, the model may be used for scenario analyses, whereby changes in the generation of different categories of waste can be determined from changes in the level and composition of economic activities. This may serve as a starting point for proper forecasts, although these should include an evaluation of the proportionality assumption as well as the various effects of waste policies.

The basis for modelling is the Information System for Waste and Recycling (ISAG) and the macroeconomic model ADAM, which is used for official forecasts of the Danish economy. ISAG comprises data from waste management facilities on the amount of waste collected, with the data being grouped according to source, type (how the waste is collected), fraction (the contents of the waste) and management. For each fraction and primary source, the amount of waste generated is linked to one or several economic activity variables in ADAM. Thus given official Danish economic forecasts, the model may be used to generate baseline scenarios for the individual waste fractions and primary sources. From these scenarios and waste management targets it is possible to calculate required management capacities, waste generation from secondary sources and environmental pressures. These aspects are beyond the scope of the present model, however.

A short introduction to the methodology used is provided in Chapter 2, followed in Chapter 3 by a description and analysis of the ISAG data categories and their development including disaggregation of the amount of household waste. Chapter 4 couples the amount of waste to economic activities, while Chapter 5 provides a baseline scenario and some sensitivity analyses. The conclusions are presented in Chapter 6.