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Reduction of Environmental Pressure from Car Transport - Extended Summary
Chapter 4: Potentials and Scenarios for a Factor 4/10 Reduction
Assumption: growth in consumption
Quantifying the Factor 4/10 reduction target
Evaluation of potentials
Technological potentials
Modified transport organisation
Changes in spatial structures
New lifestyles
Combined potential
Results: Consumption of materials
Results: Emission of CO2
Summing-up
Scenarios for factor 4/10
Scenario at the sector level
Impact on many areas
Scenario at the household and personal level
Contents of the Chapter
Chapter 4 takes a look into the future. First there is a statement of the anticipated future development in transport and environmental impact – in a "business as usual" process.
Then, the targets for reduction by factors of 4 and 10 are quantified in relation to the current situation.
Evaluation of potentials
Next, a number of potentials are addressed concerning how to achieve a factor 4/10
reduction of the total materials consumption, energy consumption and
Scenarios
Finally, the various possibilities in the description of scenarios for year 2030 and year 2050 are combined. The scenarios represent examples of conceivable combinations of the potentials, if the factor 4/10 reduction is to be achieved by year 2030 and year 2050. They are not to be taken as realistic forecasts for the development.
Assumption: growth in consumption
The anticipated growth
The historical and actual developments seem to indicate continued growth in the consumption of materials and energy. For an evaluation of the prospects of reducing the total environmental impact and consumption of resources, this trend must be incorporated.
The starting point is the reference projection (1996) of the Ministry of Traffic, where passenger car traffic as well as the number of motorcars have been projected to year 2030. This projection has been continued to year 2050, assuming a moderate growth in traffic and, furthermore, complemented with a number of assumptions regarding the associated road construction, consumption of materials for road maintenance, spare parts, etc., to year 2030 and year 2050, respectively. The result of this projection is shown in Table 2.
Table 2. Projection of the consumption of materials ands energy
and the emission of
The projection is used, on the one hand, as a "shopping list" in relation to factors that must be allowed for when evaluating the potential and, on the other, as a "Business as Usual" situation in relation to which the various part potentials can be assessed.
In contrast, the reduction by factors of 4 and 10 is viewed in relation to today's situation (1995).
Quantifying the Factor 4/10 reduction target
Targets for Factor 4/10 reduction
The targets are simply the result of dividing today's values for materials and energy
consumption and emission of
Table 3. Assumed targets through a factor 4/10 reduction
| "Today" (as per inventory) |
Factor 4 year 2030 |
Factor 10 year 2050 |
|
| Materials | 3.5 – 3.9 mio. tonnes | ca. 900,000 tonnes | 350,000 tonnes |
| Energy | 105 – 117 PJ | ca. 26,000 TJ | 10,500 TJ |
| 7.4 – 8.9 mio. tonnes | 1,900,000 tonnes | 740,000 tonnes |
Targets for the yearly consumption of materials and energy and
emission of
Evaluation of potentials
Four types of potential
A number of different potentials are conceivable to achieve a factor 4/10
reduction of the total consumption of materials and energy and emission of
The potentials addressed in this study are:
 | technological improvements; |
| modified transport organisation; |
| changes in spatial structures; |
| changes in lifestyles (including the use of IT). |
The potentials are first discussed separately and then combined into an overall maximum potential. The starting point for the review of the potentials is the philosophy behind the eco-efficiency concept: to reduce the environmental impact as far as possible without limiting the service provided by the relevant product.
Starting point: the transport quality of motorcars
In this case the basic parameter is the demand for transport with the quality supplied by today's passenger cars. That is why the technological possibilities are considered first. The other possibilities/potentials can be seen as more or less important deviations from the transport quality of the motorcar. By using modified technology in the vehicles the service provided can, basically, be completely unchanged – whilst at the same time the environmental impact is reduced. The other approaches represent a number of possibilities for establishing a solution to the transport needs and reducing the environmental impact, but where at the same time certain alterations of the form of transport and/or lifestyle are assumed.
Technological potentials
Technological potentials
The incorporated technological potentials include more efficient use of the fuel in motorcars, more efficient energy chains, more effective production of motorcars and roads, etc.
Energy consumption of motorcars
Reductions in the energy consumption of motorcars while they are running can be achieved, notably, by reducing the weight of the cars, but also by reducing the aerodynamic drag, the frontal area, and the rolling drag. It is also possible to substitute more efficient fuel types and fuel chains for the conventional fuels petrol and diesel oil. Electric cars are a particularly interesting alternative because they hold great potential for effective use of energy in electric motors, and because the energy supply to electric cars can be based on sustainable energy sources such as wind power and solar cells.
Within the various industrial sectors concerned with passenger car transport: iron & metal processing, refineries, etc., it is also considered that substantial reductions in the consumption of energy are possible. Also, it is possible to re-use a greater share of motorcars and spare parts – so that the total amount of materials accounted for by the economy is reduced.
Modified transport organisation
Organisational potentials
Changes in the distribution of transport on the different means of transportation – so that part of the passenger car traffic is replaced by, e.g., car sharing, collective transport, or bicycles – are initiatives that can reduce the consumption of energy and materials.
Collective transport
Collective transport can render the conveyance of passengers more efficient in that many persons are transported by the same means of transportation. However, being able to compete with the family car's transport quality requires high frequency and therefore a lot of mileage, which – all other things being equal – tends to reduce the occupancy coefficient and to increase the consumption of energy.
It is assumed that the greatest potential for offering, at the same time, high transport quality and a reduction of the environmental impact from passenger car traffic by shifting to collective means of transportation can be found in the introduction of a flexible collective systems in urban areas. The system will exploit the substantial flows of persons at the times and in the areas where they exist and, in addition, will offer flexible (perhaps call-controlled) transport when and where low utilisation must be accepted.
Car sharing arrangements
Car sharing arrangements imply that several persons share a number of cars via an association where motorcars can be borrowed as needed.
Experience with car sharing schemes in other countries shows that they entail a reduction of the total number of motorcars as well as the total number of miles driven. Car sharing schemes imply that the service provided is to some extent different from what is common today, namely where each household has its own car. On the other hand, car sharing schemes in other countries were established voluntarily, and it is reasonable to assume that such part of the car traffic as the participants "must do without" is that part of the car driving which is least essential and least appreciated. In the assessment of potentials it has been assumed that shared cars can be attractive for drivers who use the car predominantly in their spare time and who have low transport needs.
Car pooling
Car pooling, where several persons ride together in one car instead of using several cars, also holds a potential for reducing the traffic. At the moment car pooling is in most cases arranged on the basis of a common transport destination by virtue of a major workplace, etc., but attempts have also been made to arrange car pooling based on a residential area, from which the pooled motorcars run to the centre of a major city. Car pooling differs from conventional transport in proprietary cars by requiring a higher degree of coordination and punctuality of the participants. In the assessment of potentials it has been assumed that car pooling is primarily a possibility for the residence-to-workplace trip, and that it is largely attractive for drivers who are now using their car because it is a practical mode of transportation between home and work.
Bicycle
Shifting the mileage requirements from a car to a bicycle can also contribute towards a reduction of the materials & energy intensity. However, bicycle transport is effected by means of the person's own motive power and at a lower average speed than the motorcar. The range and, therefore, the prospects of shifting the daily car trips are thus reduced – especially by time and physical condition, but also by practical considerations such as shopping en route and individual preferences. There are, however, also places and destinations where, all things considered, the bicycle is likely to provide better (or just as good) accessability than/as the car. This is probably true, first and foremost, of trips from urban residential areas to the town centres, where accessability with a car may be impaired by reason of congestion, difficulties in finding parking space, as well as the walking distance from the parking spot to the final destination. The starting point for the assessment of potentials is an investigation by the National Highway Agency, where a so-called "extended potential" has been defined. It is based on an evaluation of the additional time consumed when bicycling – as well as the persons' own statements as to what could make them use a bicycle instead of a car.
Changes in spatial structures
Physical and spatial structures
Changes in the spatial structures could generally contribute towards reducing the transport as well as the ownership of cars by making the trips shorter and by providing increased access to carry out one's errands by bicycle or by collective means of transportation. On the one hand, the spreading of the cities' suburbs was made possible by car transport but, on the other hand, it generates a new demand for additional car transport – by increasing the length of the trips and impairing the terms and conditions for the collective traffic and for cycling and walking. Norwegian surveys as well as surveys of transport to and from workplaces in Denmark seem to show that, above all, the access to collective means of transportation, the distance to the centre, and the density of a residential area have great impact on the volume of motorcar traffic.
The potential for a reduction of the environmental impact from passenger car traffic by changing the spatial structures was assessed on the basis of two types of information. Firstly, an estimate of how the spatial structure affects the transport carried out by the inhabitants of a given residential area. Secondly, an assessment as to how great a proportion of the aggregate housing, etc., that can theoretically be designed as the least transport-generating form of housing, etc., by year 2030 and year 2050.
New lifestyles
Changed lifestyles and IT
Changes in lifestyles implying that car transport is replaced by other forms of communication – or that more goods are sent to the consumers rather than being picked up by the consumers – also harbour a potential for reduction of the environmental impact from car traffic.
Thus, information technology provides a number of possibilities both for replacement of transport and for coordination of transport, so that it is carried out more efficiently in terms of energy and the environment. Information technology is currently in rapid growth in respect of technical possibilities, dissemination, and use. It is reasonable to assume that these new possibilities will be playing an increasing role both in year 2030 and in year 2050.
The possibilities most discussed today are "remote" working as well as services and shopping. The potential for using these forms of communication and ordering as a substitute for car transport has been assessed here on the basis of a reduction of transport between home and work by an order of magnitude corresponding to the dissemination potential of "remote" work, and a reduction of the shopping trips by an order of magnitude corresponding to the estimates of the market share of the "remote" work.
Combined potential
Combined potential
For each of the four types of potential a quantative estimate has been made of how far
each of them can contribute to a reduction of the consumption of energy and materials and
the emission of
The combined potential should be seen as a relatively optimistic assessment of the possibilities. The combined potential is assessed in the light of assessments of development potentials as they appear today – and which are likely to be achievable without drastic encroachment on transport behaviour. It cannot be ruled out that the future will be characterised by totally different possibilities and needs.
Obviously, the combined potential does not in itself constitute a solution to the problems. Considerable development and regulation work will be associated with the achievement of these potentials and, not least, with ensuring that the possibilities are utilised to reduce the consumption of energy and materials by transport rather than enabling more transport and increased ownership of motorcars. The "boomerang" or rebound effect which occurs if the consumption of energy and materials is rationalised and the services made cheaper because of that, is not included in the potentials. The prospects of realisation are discussed in Chapter 5.
Results: Consumption of materials
Results for the consumption of materials
Fig. 2 shows the results for the consumption of materials. The figure incorporates the "Business as Usual" projection and the technological potential in itself as well as the combined potential – consisting of the technological potential, changes in spatial structures, changes in distribution on different means of transportation, as well as lifestyle/IT. The result has been indexed with 1995 equal to 100.
Fig. 2. Materials consumed by passenger car transport in a life-cycle perspective. The blank columns under 1995 are the potential for year 2050 (technical and combined, respectively), provided that motorcar traffic and the aggregate number of motorcars remain at the present level.
For the consumption of materials the outlined potential suffices for a reduction by a factor of 1.8 in year 2030 and a factor of 2.6 in year 2050. In other words, it is still a far cry from factors 4 and 10.
The reduction is caused, primarily, by the increased efficiency of the technology and an electricity supply based on sustainable energy for the electric cars.
For the consumption of materials the combined potential is smaller than for the
consumption of energy and the emission of
The composition of the combined potential is shown in Table 4.
Table 4. Reductions of materials consumed by passenger car transport
Results: Emission of CO2
Results for
Fig. 3 below shows the effect of the combined potential on the emission of
Fig. 3. The emission of
The potential for reduction of the emission of
The reason is, primarily, that the change in the electricity supply to electric cars in
year 2030 has a greater impact on the emission of
In other words, it is a combination of changes in the transport system and changes in
the energy sector which, between them, hold out prospects of considerable reductions.
However, for the emission of
Table 5 shows the composition of the combined potential for the emission of
Table 5. Reductions of emission of
Summing-up
Table 6 contains a summing-up of the factor reductions achieved by the various components of the potential.
Table 6. Total factor reductions
The combined potential illustrates that it is possible to achieve substantial reductions of the environmental impact from passenger car traffic as compared with today.
The contribution from the technological potential is greatest.
The greatest potential, not surprisingly, comes from the implementation of the technological potential, although especially when an extensive readjustment of the energy system towards sustainable energy is assumed at the same time. The reason is that a large part of the potential in the transport sector is believed to come from conversion to electric propulsion.
Still a long way to go
However, the outlined possibilities are still far from the targets for a factor 4/10 reduction. Even if all the potentials are combined it would be impossible to reach the targets – if at the same time traffic continues to increase at the rate expected today. In other words, the potentials discussed are not in themselves sufficient to reach reductions by a factor of 4 and 10.
A need for changes in transport behaviour and lifestyle
This means that – in the light of the possibilities beginning to emerge today – a factor 4/10 reduction seems to call for a considerable restructuring of the transport behaviour and, therefore, the demands made today regarding access to transportation. This seems to indicate that a factor 4/10 reduction will require more radical changes in transport behaviour, values, and lifestyle.
The following is an outline of an overall scenario for the changes that a full factor 4/10 reduction of the environmental impact from passenger car traffic is likely to require.
Scenarios for factor 4/10
Scenarios
If the consumption of energy and materials as well as the emission of
The scenario for transport in a situation where the consumption of energy and materials
as well as the emission of
Scenario at the sector level
Sector level
The scenario at sector level can be arranged as a number of "demands" as to the appearance and composition of the passenger car sector. It should be noted that in this context a "demand" is not to be taken as the only avenue to a factor 4/10 reduction. Rather, it is one conceivable way to the goal – illustrating the radical changes faced by passenger car traffic if a full factor 4/10 reduction is to be achieved.
The "demands" which are in excess of the technology potential are as follows:
| Passenger car traffic to be reduced overall by 50% to year 2030 and 70% to year 2050
compared to 1995. In return, the supply of collective means of transportation and cycling
will be increased; |
| electric cars - obtaining their energy from sustainable energy sources like windmills or
solar cells - to account for no less than 80% of the motorcar traffic by year 2050; |
| road construction to be reduced by a factor of 4, reaching a low of 25 kilometres per
year; and |
| the number of passenger cars to be reduced by 30% to year 2030 (where it will be as low as 1,250,000 cars) and by 50% to year 2050, where it will be down to 900,000 cars. The alternative might be a more widespread use of car sharing arrangements. |
If the same number of passenger-kilometres are to be achieved in the factor 4/10 situation, it will require very intensive utilisation of collective means of transportation and a substantial increase in the occupancy rate for family cars. However, in theory the great geographical range available to a person today can be preserved, although the organisation of the transport will necessarily be very different from today.
It is likely that adaptation to a factor 4/10 situation in passenger car transport will to some extent occur as development of new behavioural patterns and forms of organisation. This will mean that travel destinations for passenger car traffic will to a great extent have to be replaced by new destinations that can be reached on foot or by bicycle.
However, people's access to a motorcar need not be very much lower than it is today. The access of a major part of the population to use a car occasionally may be based, in the factor 4/10 situation, on sharing arrangements, borrowing/renting, etc.
Impact on many areas
The factor 4/10 reduction will have an impact on a large number of structures and values in society. The manner in which mobility in the labour market is preserved will be different. Local training and education of staff at the enterprises, including recruitment of local manpower for training, will be common. Workmen, etc., will be less specialised and/or have several different specialisations from various jobs.
There will be other forms of education in traffic behaviour and new "user interfaces" than those we know today. The factor 4/10 situation will also entail a number of shifts in values – including as regards the concept of transport and how it is to be carried out.
Windmills and solar cells will be a common sight all over the country. In year 2050 there will be few places along the Danish coast where you cannot see a windmill farm. In order to keep the consumption of energy and materials as low as possible the roofs of existing buildings will be fitted with solar cells, and all new buildings will be designed with solar cells as part of their roof structure.
The demand of the factor 4/10 reduction for high efficiency in the use of materials and the consumption of energy will also imply that there will be a major re-use and recycling industry, perhaps with return systems so that materials and components can be used with the least possible amount of wasted energy and materials.
Scenario at the household and personal level
Household level
At the household and personal level the factor 4/10 reduction of the environmental impact from passenger car transport will entail substantial changes in both the choice and the location of travel destinations, as well as in the use of transport.
In the factor 4/10 society each individual is likely to have an interest in limiting the amount of motoring and the use of motorised transport as much as possible. This may be the case, for example, because it is made expensive – or because there is a lot of attention focused on the use of resources and global environmental capacity.
In the factor 4/10 society there will be a number of instruments to render transport efficient and coordinated.
The demands of the factor 4/10 reduction for efficient utilisation of the means of transportation will imply, for example, that the fare paid for collective traffic will depend on the time of the day you wish to go.
In the factor 4/10 society a person will be less dependent on motorised transport in his everyday life. Routine functions such as shopping, laundry, etc., will always be within walking or bicycling distance from the home. The regard for reduction of the transport needs will generally put its mark on the urban structure.
Generally speaking, people will focus considerably on the local area or town they live in. This means that they will use local shops more than today, and that outings will tend to go to local excursion sites in the immediate vicinity of the town. However, most families will have access to a motorcar which they can use occasionally for longer excursions and visits.
Information technology will be more widespread and will offer totally new forms of entertainment, which may supersede some of the entertainment that used to take place away from home.
Other environmental problems in the cities are reduced
The environmental problems from traffic as we know them today will be sharply reduced.
There will be less noise from traffic in the cities, and being in the steets will be less
stressful. When, at the same time, there are fewer parked cars, the access to stay
outdoors around one's home will be strengthened and improved. Actual air pollution will
not normally be a nuisance but could still be felt in certain urban streets.
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