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Denmark's Greenhouse Gas Projections until 2012, an update including a preliminary projection until 2017 1 IntroductionThis report presents the results of a project financed by the Danish Environmental Protection Agency. The purpose of the project is to make "with measures"- projections of the emissions from Danish sources of the greenhouse gases CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs and SF6. The ‘with measures’ projection encompasses currently implemented and adopted policies and measures. The time period covered is from 1972, the first year detailed Danish energy statistics were produced, until the first commitment period (2008-2012) under the Kyoto Protocol to the Climate Convention. A preliminary projection is also made for the second commitment period (2013-2017), but here no projections are available for the agricultural sector and the emissions from this sector have therefore been kept equal to the emissions in the first commitment period. Estimations of HFCs, PFCs and SF6-emissions and projections have are base upon a new report [20]. These estimations cover only the period from 1993 until 2020. Only emissions caused by human activities are included in the calculations. However, it can sometimes be difficult to draw the borderline between emissions from nature and anthropogenic emissions. Due to small differences between the methodology used in this project and the methodology (CORINAIR) used by the National Environmental Research Institute for the purpose of annual reporting the estimated emissions presented for the period 1990-2000 may deviate a little from the official emission estimates reported to the EU and the Climate Convention (UNFCCC). Therefore the GHG emission estimates presented in this report for the period until 2000 should only be seen as an illustration of the order of magnitude. This is also the case for the parts of the trend analysis in Chapter 2, which are based on the historic data coming from this project. The description of the emissions in the report is structured according to the IPCC sectors: Energy (chapter 3) The NMVOC emission from solvent use is included as a source of CO2 emission. A separate chapter is dedicated to each of these sectors. However, the report starts with a summary (chapter 2) of the emissions with a section for each of the pollutants treated. At the end of each of these sections the main differences between the present calculation and the values in Denmark’s Second National Communication on Climate Change [1] are described shortly. For each of the pollutants the development of the emissions in the period 1972-2012 and the various emission targets in Danish sector plans or international conventions are shown on a figure. Below the figures the emissions for the main emitting sectors are shown in a table. The years shown in these tables are not the same for all pollutants. When a column is marked with "2010" it means that the values in the columns are averaged over the first commitment period 2008-2012. "2015" means similarly the average for the second commitment period 2013-2017. It is not possible in this report to present all the data from the emission calculations. The data is contained in an EXCEL notebook model. The Appendix 1 contains a table with time-series for 1975-2017 for the greenhouse gases CO2, CH4 and N2O for all emitting sectors (see table 28 to table 30). In Appendix 2 the results of the projections 2000-2017 are shown in the IPCC/CRF Sectoral Tables format in CO2 equivalents for each greenhouse gas and in total (only source and sink categories with greenhouse gas emissions or removals are shown). If the reader needs additional information, please ask the author. The model is structured as a set of worksheets for the primary energy consuming sectors and the model contains similar sets for each of the pollutants. Additional sheets have been included for the relevant pollutants, where emissions originate from non-combustion processes. Each of these spreadsheets contains time-series for the emissions from each of the primary fuels consumed in the sector.
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