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Denmark's Greenhouse Gas Projections until 2012, an update including a preliminary projection until 2017

2 Summary of emissions

The following sections give a summary of the emissions of each of the gases covered. Detailed time-series for the gases CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O can be found in table 28 to table 30 in Appendix 1. In these tables the time-series are disaggregated in the emitting sectors and a total is shown. For CO₂ from fossil fuel combustion both totals without and with corrections for electricity import/export and inter-annual temperature variations are shown. The aggregate anthropogenic carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂-eq.) emission of the greenhouse gases CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆) are calculated by multiplying the emissions of each of the greenhouse gases with the 100 years global warming potentials (GWP) shown in Table 1 [2]. These GWPs are recommended by IPCC in the Second Assessment Report and shall be used under the Kyoto Protocol. The GWP of 310 for N₂O means e.g. that the global warming caused by 1 tonne of N₂O is the same as the global warming caused by 310 tonnes of CO₂.

Table 1.
Global warming potentials

In the Kyoto Protocol to the Climate Convention, the parties to the Convention in Kyoto in 1997 agreed, as a first step, to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions of the industrialized countries in 2008 to 2012 by at least 5 per cent in comparison to the 1990 level. According to the agreement, the EU is to contribute a total reduction of 8 per cent. Since then, the EU Member States have agreed to an internal burden sharing that commits Denmark to a reduction of 21 per cent.

With the latest updated GHG emission inventory from the National Environmental Research Institute (NERI), Denmark’s commitment to reducing emissions of greenhouse gases by 21 per cent in the first commitment period means that emissions are to be reduced from 69.7 Mt CO₂-eq. in the base year to an average of 55.0 Mt CO₂-eq. in the first commitment period 2008 and 2012. The result of the updated projections for emissions of greenhouse gases until 2012 carried out in this project shows that Denmark is expected to emit an average of 80.1 Mt CO₂-eq. in the first commitment period.

The results are summarized in Table 2, which shows that the emission of CH₄ decreases from 5.8 Mt CO₂-eq. in 1990 to 5.0 Mt CO₂-eq. in "2010". The emissions of N₂O also decrease, from 10.8 Mt CO₂-eq. in 1990 to 8.7 Mt CO₂-eq. in "2010". For the industry gasses HFCs, PFCs and SF₆ there is an increase from 0.3 Mt CO₂-eq. in the base year to 0.7 Mt CO₂-eq. in "2010".

Table 2.
Denmark's expected GHG emissions in 2008-2012 and the deficit when comparing with the Kyoto target for the first commitment period in the Kyoto Protocol.

The base year estimation in this project is 0.5 Mt CO₂-eq. lower than the estimate shown in Table 2 coming from the use of the CORINAIR methodology as mentioned in Chapter 1. Similarly is our estimate for the year 2000 a bit higher (0.2 Mt CO₂-eq.) than the CORINAIR value shown in Table 2.

As show in Table 2 the total emissions depend strongly on the CO₂ emissions from the fuel used for electricity export. Of the total emission of 80.1 Mt CO₂-eq. in the first commitment period 9.9 Mt CO₂-eq. originates from electricity export. The calculation in the model of the emissions from electricity export is based on the amount of fuel used on the power plants producing for export. The updated energy projection described in [4] expects an electricity export gradually increasing to about 12 TWh in 2010 corresponding to an emission of 9.9 Mt CO₂-eq.

According to Table 2 the Danish deficit is now 25 Mt CO₂-eq.when the projection is compared to the Danish Kyoto target in the first commitment period. This deficit has increased compared to the former projection [58] where the deficit was 1.8 Mt CO₂-eq. when the base year emission was corrected for net-electricity exports (i.e. electricity import in 1990) and measures to exclude the effect of the electricity export 2008-12 were included. A recalculation of the base year emissions by NERI in April 2002 gave a 0.4 Mt CO₂ -eq. raise to the deficit. The increase in the deficit of 22.8 Mt CO₂-eq. shown in this report is composed of 5.0 Mt CO₂-eq. from not correcting the emissions in the base year 1990 and 9.9 Mt CO₂-eq. from not including measures to exclude the effect of the electricity export 2008-12. The main reason for the remaining increase of 7.9 Mt CO₂-eq. is changes in the energy projection. The main changes in the energy baseline compared to the one used in the 2001 projection is the following:

Primary energy consumption in industry, manufacturing and construction in 2012 is projected to be 114 PJ compared to 95 PJ in the former projection. This has caused the deficit to increase about 1.1 Mt CO2. Increased use of diesel in agriculture in the new projection will cause an increase of 0.5 Mt CO2, whereas an expected decrease in the fuel consumption in domestic and service sector will reduce emissions with 0.2 Mt CO2. That total increase in the deficit from these contributions is then 1.4 Mt CO2.

Changed assumptions for electricity and heat production have increased the deficit with 2.0 Mt CO2. This increase in the sum of an increase of 1.6 Mt CO2 on large power plants, 0.3 Mt CO2 on decentral power plants, and 0.1 Mt CO2 on district heating plants. The reduction in the expected number of wind turbines is one of the explanations for this increase.

The expected electricity export in 2012 has now been reduced to 12 TWh from the 17 TWh in the former projection [58]. The emissions caused by the production of electricity for export has therefore decreased from 12.9 Mt CO2 to 9.9 Mt CO2 in the first commitment period. This decrease of 3.0 Mt CO2 is part of the increased deficit. With the same fuel consumption for electricity production and reduced exports the old deficit would have been these 3.0 Mt CO2 larger.

The primary energy consumption for road transport in 2012 is projected to be 180 PJ compared to 165 PJ in the former projection [58]. This causes an increase in the deficit of 0.8 Mt CO2-eq. This includes an increase of 0.3 Mt CO2 from extra diesel bought in Denmark by foreign drivers and 0.1 Mt CO2-eq. from the increase in nitrous oxide emissions related to fuel consumption in cars with catalytic converters.

The CO2 emission from the use of natural gas on the platforms in the North Sea has increased about 0.7 Mt CO2 compared to the former projection. The reason for this increase is primarily new extraction methods, which increase the amount of resources that it is possible to extract from the fields.

In the calculation of the emissions in Figure 1 and Table 2, the emissions from flaring, emissions of CO₂ from plastics in waste incinerated and the reduction of emissions due to the growth of new forest planted after 1990 are included. The sequestration in forest existing before 1990 is not included. The emissions from international air transport and international bunkers are not included. The emissions from road transport are based on gasoline and diesel sold in Denmark, and therefore not corrected for border trade.

Figure 1.
2000-2017: Total emissions of CO₂ equivalents from Denmark if no new measures are introduced.

2.1 Emissions of CO₂

The main source of CO₂ emissions from Denmark is the combustion of fossil fuels. The only other source contributing is the mineral sector and CO₂ from the decomposition of NMVOCs emitted from the use of solvents. It is shown in section 4.1 that the total emission from the mineral sector increases from 1 Mt CO₂ in 1990 to 1.5 Mt CO₂ in 2010. The emission increased already to 1.5 Mt CO₂ in 2000 and is expected to be constant until 2010, since the cement producing capacity, emitting 1 Mt CO₂ in 1990 and 1.4 Mt CO₂ in 2000, is running at maximum capacity. The emission from the production of yellow bricks and lime is only about 0.1 Mt CO₂.

The CO₂ emission from the solvent sector declines from 0.124 Mt CO₂ in 1990 to 0.069 Mt CO₂ in 2010. This is based on the assumption that 85% of the weight of the NMVOCs emitted from solvents results in an emission factor of 3.12 kg CO₂ /kg NMVOC. The emission projection for NMVOC from 2001 until 2012 now uses the updated projection in [64], whereas the historical values are the same as in the former projection [58], since these numbers are still used in the Danish CORINAIR reporting.

In the Danish energy plan "Energi21", the goal is to reduce the emissions of CO₂ corrected for net electricity export and temperature with 20% of the 1988 level in 2005. This total is calculated in a different way than done for the Kyoto Protocol above. The national CO₂-target includes emissions from international air transport but excludes emissions from cement, lime and yellow bricks production and from flaring and plastics in waste incinerated as well as removals by sinks. The emissions from road transport are based on gasoline and diesel consumed in Denmark, and therefore corrected for border trade (according to Table 3, cars from other countries bought fuel equivalent to an emission of 0.2 Mt CO₂ in 1988). The category other in Table 3 covers fuel use for transport in the military and the use of gasoline for off-roaders at power plants, railways and in the household sector. Done in this way, the total emission in 1988 was 61.1 Mt CO₂. The emission target for 2005 is therefore 48.8 Mt CO₂ (shown on Figure 2 as the upper horizontal line).

As shown on Table 3, the total emission in 2005 will be 52.3 Mt CO₂ calculated using the energy projection in the latest energy projection from the Danish Energy Agency [4]. This is 3.5 Mt CO₂ or 7.2% above the Energy21 target. Figure 2 shows that the total emission in 2002 is closer to the Energy21 target; this year the emissions is expected to be 51.3 Mt CO₂ or 5.1% above the target.

The sector with the largest increase in CO₂ emission is road transport, increasing from 8.8 Mt CO₂ in 1988 to 13.0 in "2010". International air transport, which as mentioned above is also included in the total in Figure 2, increases from 2.4 Mt CO₂ in 2000 to 3.2 Mt CO₂ in "2010". The emission from central power plants in Table 3 is the actual uncorrected emission. According to the next line in the table, the corrected CO₂ emission in "2010" will be 9.9 Mt CO₂ lower.

In 1998 the CO₂ emission factor regarding waste incineration was revised to take into account CO₂ emissions from plastic in the waste. Assuming 6.4% of plastic in the waste (see section 3.2) the emission from the combustion of waste was rising from 0.29 Mt CO₂ in 1990 to 0.60 Mt CO₂ in 2000, and is expected to be 0.72 Mt CO₂ in 2010 (see Table 3).

Figure 2.
Corrected CO₂ emissions compared to Danish Energy21 Plan

Table 3.
Emission of CO₂ by sectors

2.2 Emissions of CH₄

The main part of the CH₄ emissions originates from the animals in the agricultural sector (see chapter 5). The decrease in the CH₄ emissions from enteric fermentation in the period 1980 to 2000 continuing until 2012 as shown on Figure 3 is caused by the decrease in the number of cattle. For the same reason the CH₄ emissions from manure management also decreases n this period, but are offset by the increased emissions from the increased number of pigs. As mentioned in section 5.1.2 the emission factors for manure management for Denmark has been changed since Denmark’s Second National Communication from using emission factors for temperate to cool areas. This change has reduced the CH₄ emission from manure management considerably, by more than a factor of three.

The second largest CH₄ emitter is the landfills (see section 7.1). The emissions from landfills had a maximum in 1992. Since then the emission has declined, due to the stop for landfilling of combustible waste in 1996, the decrease due to the ageing of the landfills and the increasing number of landfill gas collection plants.

Figure 3.
Emissions of CH₄ from Denmark

The CH₄ emission from energy combustion has increased since the introduction of decentralised power plants using gas engines, where some of the natural gas is not combusted (see section 3.2). The CH₄ emission in Table 4 from residential & service is from the use of wood and straw in small individual combustion units.

The calculation of the CH₄ emission has changed since the Second Danish Communication [1]. The total CH₄ emission in 1990 was then calculated to be 424 kt CH₄ (the value is now 270.9 kt CH₄ for 1990). The main reason is the change for animal manure, where the emission has dropped with a factor of three, as described in section 5.1.2. New figures for the amount of waste landfilled have also decreased the emission in 1990 from 71 kt CH₄ to 64.0 kt CH₄. The emissions of CH₄ are not corrected for electricity import/export. Table 4 shows the CH₄ emissions both from the energy sectors and the non-energy sector.

Table 4.
Emissions of CH₄ by sectors

2.3 Emissions of N₂O

As shown on Figure 4 the major part of the N₂O emissions originate from agricultural soils (se section 5.2). The main reason for the decrease on the figure from 1990 to 2003 is the combined action of the Danish Action Plan for Sustainable Agriculture and "Vandmiljøplan II". The projection has been updated to take into account the impacts of the midterm evaluation of vandmiljøplan II and the Danish action plan to reduce the evaporation of ammonia from agriculture.

Figure 4.
Emissions of N₂O from Denmark

Table 5 shows the increase of the N₂O emission from road transport from 0.4 kt N₂O in 1990 to 2.0 kt N₂O in 2010 due to the introduction of 3-way catalytic converters on the gasoline cars. Table 8 shows that the emission factor for N₂O increases with a factor of five from 1991 to 2010.

Table 5.
Emissions of N₂O by sectors

The procedure for the calculation of the N₂O emission has changed since the Denmark’s Second Communication [1]. However the totals have changed very little. In [1] the emission in 1990 was 34 kt N₂O and the emission in 2000 and 2010 was 28 kt N₂O. The emissions of N₂O are not corrected for electricity import/export.

2.4 Emissions of HFCs, PFCs and SF₆

Section 4.1.3 contains a projection of the emissions of three groups of greenhouse gases, perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) through to the year 2020.

The emission levels have decreased compared to former reports [58] for several reasons:

1. Because the actual emissions have been corrected for the greenhouse gases contained in the exported and imported appliances.
2. A tax has been introduced on these three groups of gases amounting to 1/10^th of their GWP in Table 1 up to a maximum of 400 kr/kg.
3. New Danish legislation containing dates for outphasing import, production and use of these industrial greenhouse gasses.
4. New rules for decommissioning, where the GHG in refrigerators, foam etc. are destroyed instead of emitted to the atmosphere. This is a mayor reason for the decrease in the present projection compared to the last one in [58]. The difference with the old calculation is especially large in the second commitment period, 2013-17 (marked as "2015").
5. Further there have been changes in the leak-rates for commercial and mobile refrigerants.

Table 6.
Emissions of HFCs, PFCs and SF₆

As shown in Table 6 the total emissions in 1995 of these gases have changed to 0.35 Mt CO₂ eq. since Denmark’s Second National Communication [1], where the emission in 1995 was 0.42 Mt CO₂ equivalents. No emission projection was made for HFCs, PFCs and SF₆ in [1]. The calculations are now done according to the 1996 IPCC Revised Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. The emissions are corrected for the greenhouse gas contained in the exported (and imported) appliances.

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