Miljøprojekt, 1118 – Undersøgelse af udenlandske erfaringer med klimatilpasning - Hovedrapport

Undersøgelse af udenlandske erfaringer med klimatilpasning - Hovedrapport

Summary and conclusions

When comparing Denmark with other countries, differences as well as similarities can be identified within both climate and administrative issues. To contribute to the preparation of a Danish strategy for adaptation to climate change, the Danish EPA has therefore prepared this report, which summarises the most important experience with climate issues that has been gained in other countries.

The main conclusions to be drawn from the report’s analysis of international experience with climate adaptation are presented in the following:

Several of the countries with which Denmark is traditionally compared have come very far in efforts to assess which measures can and should be taken to counteract the climate change. However, a number of countries are still only in the preliminary phases of national climate adaptation planning.

In their assessments, all countries use several scenarios, based on internationally recognised assessments made by the IPCC, and they operate with several time phases. Since the scenarios for the various countries do not differ significantly until we reach 2040, it is not very important which scenario are chosen as a basis for the adaptation efforts, since most adaptation measures start having an effect within this time horizon.

Much uncertainty still prevails about the extent and nature of future climate change and its impact on the communities involved. This is important for the approach used by the countries studied in this report in adapting to climate change, in several ways. First, much attention is given to collecting more knowledge through research and investigations. Secondly, risk analyses and risk management tools are widely used. Thirdly, a phase approach is used, which takes several different planning horizons into account.

In spite of these uncertainties it is a general impression that the expected effects of climate change will be of such magnitude that planning adaptation measures should be initiated now.

Although climate changes are by nature of global significance, there are large differences between the climate change expected in individual countries and regions, and between their impacts on society and on the environment. Therefore – even if important experience has been gained in other countries, it cannot replace a national analysis of conditions that are special for Denmark.

Systematic assessments, including socio-economic assessments, of the impacts and adaptation potential should be taken into account in decisions on adaptation measures resulting in large social consequences.

A number of countries have already allocated considerable resources to climate adaptation programmes. Resources allocated at national level to such efforts reflect the different phases of efforts: In countries which are in the early phases of adaptation planning, appropriations will be targeted primarily on research, investigation and information programmes, while in later phases resources will be allocated to planning and specific investments, for instance improved coastal protection.

A large number of the adaptation measures are being taken by regional and local authorities and by private persons, who bear either all or large parts of the costs of the specific initiatives and investments. This is important to note in connection with the assessment of the costs of adaptation to climate change, and underlines the importance of involving a range of stakeholders in the adaptation planning process.

The overall conclusion is that Denmark should draw on relevant specific experience obtained in a number of other countries, without, however, recommending only one model from one country for use in Denmark.

From the review of experience with adaptation programmes made in international organisations, we know that the potential benefits to be gained in Denmark from such experience are fairly limited. Specific measures relating to adaptation to climate change are made primarily at national level, and up till now the most relevant experience from international organisations has been gained in connection with assistance to climate adaptation measures in developing countries.

Experience gained in the countries studied

The UK has probably gained the most extensive experience with specific measures to prepare for climate change, although a national strategy for adaptation does not exist. Much experience obtained in the UK will be relevant to Denmark, as regards specific issues as well as matters of process. Not least the systematic and extensive involvement of stakeholders, and preparation of studies and guidelines within a number of areas should be of inspiration for the Danish approach.

In the Netherlands, special focus is obviously being given primarily to freshwater resources and coastal protection. Measures to protect the coastline and coastal areas are based on a combination of spatial planning and technical tools. Technical expertise as well as the process include safety checks of dikes and infrastructure every five years, and regular adjustment of criteria and limit values, in the light of changed climate conditions and land-use. Thus, there is a tradition for ongoing adjustment.

Germany has not worked out a strategy for adaptation to climate change. Extensive research has been carried out, not least within the programme administered by Deutches Klimaforschungsprogramm (DEKLIM). Apart from research efforts, the most relevant experience has been achieved at regional level. One example is the Schleswig-Holstein action plan for integrated coastal protection, which lays the framework for risk management within the region taking into account the sea level rise projected in the next decades.

Poland has not prepared a strategy or policy proper for adaptation to climate change. In 2003, Poland did, however, set up a climate policy with recommendations for adaptation within four areas: agriculture, forestry, coastline and aquatic resources. Within these areas a number of measures were identified, which may also be relevant to Denmark. However, experience with implementation of specific measures is limited. Generally, Poland finds it important to integrate the issue of adaptation to climate change in education at all levels.

In Sweden experience with adaptation to climate change has so far been rather limited. However, a decision has been taken recently to initiate a major investigation of climate adaptation, to be completed in 2007. It would be relevant for Denmark to follow the organisation and the results of the process very closely. Work done so far in Sweden to adapt to climate change has also covered relevant studies within transport, forestry and, not least, the Baltic Sea. Moreover, Sweden has also carried out a major information campaign.

Norway (like a number of other countries) is at almost the same stage of the adaptation process as Denmark. The initial steps in the preparation of a strategy are about to be taken, and the preparatory analyses may provide useful inspiration for the organisation of the Danish process. Focus is, for instance, on a phased approach, on risk assessment, and on integrated adaptation within local planning.

Canada differs very much, geographically and administratively, from Denmark in a number of areas. This means that the relevance of experience gained in Canada differs from one area to another. For 10 years, Canada has been working with an action plan and strategies on climate issues. As regards adaptation, efforts are based on a rolling planning process focusing on risk management.

Finland is among the few countries having adopted a strategy proper for adaptation to climate change. The Finnish strategy was adopted in 2005. Both as regards the process of developing the strategy, and as regards experience in a number of difference areas, experience gained in Finland are relevant to Denmark. The process was based on inter-ministerial co-operation, and involved experts, researchers and other important stakeholders. The Finnish strategy distinguishes between initiatives and measures within individual sectors and cross-disciplinary issues, such as risk assessments, environmental assessments, warning systems, research and sharing of information.

Experience gained in international organisations

As regards the wish to gather inspiration for the preparation of a Danish strategy for adaptation to climate change, the report concludes that the experience from international organisations will only be of limited use for Denmark. Specific measures relating to adaptation to climate change are made primarily at national level, and up till now the most relevant experience from international organisations has been gained in connection with assistance to climate adaptation measures in developing countries.

The UN Climate Convention (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol are important, because they set the framework for multilateral co-operation on adaptation to climate change. This is important, not least in relation to the developing countries, both with regard to international climate negotiations, and with regard to assistance to developing countries. Denmark has a number of duties to report efforts within climate adaptation. However, activities at UNFCCC level have only limited direct relevance for Denmark’s planning of adaptation strategies.

The role of the intergovernmental panel of experts on climate change IPCC is primarily to carry out independent reviews of international information. IPCC also address methodologies, guidelines and specific analyses of vulnerability and adaptation. Even though these analyses and guidelines often address overall issues, discussions within the framework of IPCC on methodology are highly relevant.

The European Union – just like individual Member States – used to focus on inventories and reducing emissions, and, thus, mitigating the extent of future climate change. Lately, however, attention to adaptation to climate change has increased, and this is demonstrated for instance in Council conclusions: in the European Commission’s latest Communication on the EU Climate Strategy; in discussions on the future climate efforts after 2012; in activities within the EU framework research programmes; and in analyses from the European Environment Agency (EEA).

The World Bank, UNDP and UNEP are all working with issues relating to adaptation to climate change, with focus, however, on assistance to adaptation measures in developing countries.

Also WHO’s involvement in adaptation issues is targeted primarily on developing countries. However, the organisation also carries out European projects.

Historically, OECD efforts within adaptation to climate change have focused on developing countries. Lately, however, also adaptation efforts in member countries are being addressed, with focus on methodological problems in analyses of costs and benefits of adaptation measures.