Reduktion af biltransportens miljøbelastning med faktor 4 og faktor 10

English summary

This report consists of a case-study within the factor 4/10 concept. Factor 4/10 is short for a policy goal of reducing the resource consumption and the environmental impact from various socio-economic activities, by factors of 4 and 10 respectively.

The factor 4/10 concept has been launched by among others the Wuppertal Institute in Germany, and it has been suggested as a possible framework for sustainability studies in the developed countries at the United Nations UNGASS (Rio +5) summit in 1997.

In this case-study the activity in question is car transport in Denmark. The environmental issues in this study are mainly limited to overall material consumption, energy use and CO₂-emissions related to car transport, as seen in a life-cycle perspective. The study thus investigates various options to reduce these impacts by factors of 4 and 10 by the years 2030 and 2050 respectively.

The study has an explorative character, as the concepts are new and no scientific methods were readily available to assess the potentials or consequences of such major, long terms reductions in environmental impact from transport.

Chapter 2 is devoted to discuss and specify how to interpret the concepts of eco-efficiency and factor 4/10, when relating to a specific sector such as transport. The main problems are,

• that the transport sector produces a number of different services to society; the problem is to specify which ones are to be considered. In this study the scope is mainly limited to passenger car transport and relevant substitutes, as measured in passenger km
   
• the transport sector does not work in isolation; it is dependent as well on technical inputs as on various demands from the rest of society. In this study such interactions are not discussed in detail, because the targets are related directly to the environmental impact from car transport

For this study the following interpretations and delimitations are chosen: Factor 4/10 is interpreted as absolute reductions in material consumption, energy use and CO₂-emissions related to passenger kilometers with a service comparable to passenger cars, as seen in a life-cycle perspective, by factors 4 and 10, in the years 2030 and 2050 respectively.

Chapter 3 establishes the quantitative data for comparison of today's transport with the long term targets. Transport and passenger kilometers of transport and modal spilt are described and transport related material consumption, energy use and emissions, are calculated as related to production, use and disposal of cars, roads and fuels.

Chapter 4 analyse a number of theoretical potentials for reducing material consumption, energy use and emissions of CO₂ from car transport The potentials include:

• improved technology (e.g. more energy-efficient cars, electric cars with more renewable energy supply, increased recycling of scraped cars, etc.)
   
• change or transport organisation (e.g. transfer to other modes such as public transport and car sharing)
   
• change in urban structures (in order to reduce travel needs and improve access to public transit terminals)
   
• change in lifestyle/form related to the role of transport in everyday life (related to e.g. increased use of tele-commuting, tele-shopping etc.)

The study shows that none of the potentials analysed will suffice to reduce the overall material consumption, energy use and CO₂ emissions from car transport by factors of 4 and 10 in 2030 and 2050, especially when including the expected business-as-usual growth in travel demand.

Not even the combination of all 4 types of potential will do the trick. This is the case even if e.g. 50% of cars in 2050 are assumed to be efficient electric vehicles, supplied mostly by "alternative" low impact energy sources such as wind and sun.

The table below shows some of the results, presented as "factor-reductions" compared with today (1995).

Factor-reductions calculated as the ration between today's use of materials energy and CO₂ and the levels assumed to be possible from the assessment of potentials. The greatest reduction is achieved for CO₂ with reductions of factor 3.1 and 5.7 respectively, when combining all potentials.

So, in order to achieve the targets, considerable changes would have to be made in the role and function of car traffic in everyday life. This would include a reduction in the number of cars available and in the kilometers driven pr year pr person.

Such changes are not likely to occur without significant changes in individual and social values as well as regulatory regimes.

In chapter 5 a number of options to stimulate changes towards factor 4/10 reduction are discussed, as well as a number of important barriers to change. Changes will in any case have to involve a large number of actors and groups, as transport is important for so many aspects of society. This makes it very difficult to orchestrate changes in the necessary scale.

The authorities do in principle have a number of powerful policy options available which may help to accomplish changes, including fiscal, technical and organisational measures. However, a process of social change towards factor 4/10 reduction in transport cannot be achieved only through "top-down" application of policy measures. This is because the targets are controversial and seemingly at odds with several other private and social goals (mobility, freedom, economic growth etc.)

Therefore, measures to encourage processes of "bottom-up"-changes will also have to be adopted, including processes involving development of new forms of technology, life organisation and travel patterns, social experiments, learning and innovation, and subsequent changes of values.

Also changes outside the transport sector would be necessary to achieve the factor 4/10 targets (e.g. tax reforms and other economic policy changes)

A number of policy options are discussed in terms of expected positive, negative and auxiliary impacts, but it is not at this point possible to design a package which will achieve the targets at lowest costs to society.

As a first step three different types of policy measures may be considered, as they may help initiate changes without seriously compromising other social goals. Such measures could include:

1. Measures that put a brake on unsustainable trends, such as

• reduction and redirection of infrastructure investments
• rules and/or covenants regarding environmental performance of cars and car production/recycling
• a ban on transport-inefficient development projects

2. Measures that fertilise the ground for changes, such as

• increased information on environmental pressures, conditions, and impacts related to human activity
• experiments and with new kinds of transport technology and organisation plus work/life organisation
• research into possible long term strategies and their costs/benefits

3. Measures that pave the way for longer term changes

• continued expansion of low impact energy carriers
• tax reforms, to further incorporate environmental targets, values and impacts
• inclusion of environmental targets and concerns in other policy areas (economic policies, investments, labour market, R&D, etc.)

In chapter 6 some conclusions are drawn.

Absolute reductions of materiel consumption, energy use and CO₂-emissions from transport at current car service level by Factors of 4/10 in 2030/2050, are very demanding targets. A number of potentials are identified, but even if these potentials are utilized fully, they will not suffice to achieve the targets fully, at least not in Denmark.

Achieving the targets is however not entirely unthinkable. It may be possible if major changes takes place,

• in values and preferences related to the environment
• in the service and mobility levels expected by the transport system
• in the way production, consumption and daily life is organised.

Using factor 4/10 targets for explorative analysis, as in this case, can provide valuable information about options and limitations of different partial solutions.

However, especially the material consumption target should be evaluated further, as the data are insufficient, and the idea of aggregating all material components into one measure could be questioned.

More detailed analysis will be required to assess fully the environmental, economic and social implications of achieving the factor 4/10 reductions.