Technology development and environmental consequences
Summary and conclusions
Technological development and environmental consequences - seen through technology foresights
The aim of the project is to examine and analyse environmental consequences and potentials of technological development by using the results and outcomes of existing technology foresight studies and similar sources. The project contributes to the strategic outlook on ‘the green market economy’ to be presented by the Danish government in November 2002. The project has been sponsored and carried out in co-operation with the Danish Environmental Agency.
The project has the following objectives:
 | To prepare a conceptual framework for identifying and analysing environmentally important technologies. |
| To identify existing and emerging technological domains which are expected to have a high environmental impact (positive or negative) within a time horizon of 10-15 years. |
| To identify examples of environmental technology domains likely to be of strategic importance to Danish business and society. |
The project consists of the following tasks:
| Conceptual framework and technology foresight: Categorisation of environmentally important technologies. Methodological aspects of using technology foresight to identify and examine environmentally important technologies. Desk research to identify the boundaries and categories of the technological landscape to be analysed. |
| Technology radar: Identification and collection of information from existing technology foresight studies and other relevant ‘technology-environment’ sources. The sources include ‘The Futures Project’, ‘UK Technology Foresight’, ‘The Dutch Technology Radar’, ‘The George Washington University Forecast of Technology & Strategy’, ‘OECD Environmental Outlook’. |
| Detailed study of selected technologies: The selected technologies represent the following domains biotechnology, energy technology, material technology and sensor technology. |
Four technologies are expected to be central for future development over the next decades: information technology, materials technology, biotechnology and energy technology.
Foresight results show that environmental technology is diffuse and often interdisciplinary, and it is difficult to make simple conclusions and clear-cut strategies and priorities. It is also an area that requires long time horizons to develop. Sustained government research support is crucial in areas where industry may under-invest.