Indicator Report
12. Transport
Objectives
To achieve sustainable development in the field of transport, the Government intends to decouple growth in the impacts of transport on the environment and health from economic growth. Concern for health, safety and the environment must be integrated into transport policy. The Government's longterm benchmarks call for the transport sector to make its fair contribution to reducing national emissions of greenhouse gases and to ensuring that air pollution from traffic constitutes no health hazard to the population. Traffic noise must be reduced to a level which ensures that nobody is exposed to significant negative health impacts. Transport must be safe for everybody. The negative impact of the transport system on the natural habitats of animals and plants must be curbed.
The transport system must ensure that the population has access to work, shops, public services and leisure-time activities, and all citizens must be ensured efficient mobility through public and private transport solutions. Denmark must offer trade and industry excellent transport links to the surrounding world, and traffic congestion should only occur during peak periods. High traffic flow should be ensured for public and private transport, including cycle and pedestrian traffic.
Developments - a summary
Mobility is a main priority for the citizens of the Danish welfare society. This is evident from the close links between developments in gross national product and transport consumption. However, a faint but persistent relative decoupling of the increase in traffic from economic growth can be discerned.
During the period 1990 to 2000, the total passenger traffic performance has risen by almost 17 per cent, whereas freight transport (including airfreight) rose by 6 per cent during the period 1990 to 1999. As regards passenger transport, the most noticeable shift has occurred between bicycle and car traffic. By contrast, there has been an increase in total passenger transport by train in Denmark. As regards freight transport, there has been relatively strong growth in van transport. This makes for a higher strain on the environment per kilometre, as vans typically transport very few goods in relation to their capacity.
There is a clear tendency for the length of transport from home to work/places of education, from home to leisure activities, and from home to shopping facilities, etc. to become longer. This trend is more pronounced for shopping and leisure pursuits than for work. The figures for 2000 show pronounced increases for all purposes, but as this increase applies to one year only, it should be regarded with some caution.
In Danish towns and cities, traffic is the main source of air pollution. Despite mounting traffic, emissions of the pollutants SO2, NOX, NMVOC, and CO have fallen since the early 1990s. This decrease is expected to continue and intensify in the years to come. The transport sector accounts for a growing share of Denmark's total emissions of greenhouse gases (CO2), which increased by 18 per cent during the decade 1990 to 2001. Transport emissions of CO2 have largely followed the rate of economic growth.
When considering all forms of transport as a whole, no improvements in average energy efficiency have been observed during the period 1991 to 2001. This is to say that overall, new transport technology has not provided any decisive contribution towards meeting the strategy objectives concerning reductions in CO2 emissions. Within the individual forms of transport, however, improvements in energy efficiency have been observed.
For the period 1990 to 1999, we see that capacity utilisation for lorry trips with solo wagons (lorries without attachment) has fallen for all weight categories. This development may partly be caused by an increase in loading capacity, and partly by a change in the type of freight transported.
Despite the fact that the weight of new cars continues to rise slightly, the average energy efficiency for new cars (total for petrol and diesel-powered cars alike) has gone up by 9 per cent from the second half of 1997 to the first half 2000. For new diesel cars, the increase during the period was 24 per cent, from 14.1 to 17.5 km/l. The development as regards average energy efficiency for new petrol cars was not nearly as positive: during the same period, the increase was only approximately 6 per cent, from 12.9 to 13.7 km/l. In order to reach the objective agreed by the European Commission and the European, Korean, and Japanese car industries regarding a maximum emission level of 140 g CO2/km before 2008/2009, there is a need for a 6 per cent improvement for diesel cars and a 24 per cent improvement for petrol-powered cars.
The number of fatalities in traffic accidents is down by 19 per cent, and the number of serious and mild injuries fell by 12 per cent during the period from 1990 to 1999. This in spite of the fact that traffic performance increased by approximately 25 per cent during the same period. The decrease is particularly pronounced for the number of fatalities among cyclists and people driving mopeds, where the total number of deaths has been almost halved. Similarly, there has been a marked decrease (31 per cent) in the number of fatalities among pedestrians.
Perspectives for development of indicators
There may be a need for further development of the set of indicators within some of the central areas where objectives have been established, but where reliable data capable of describing developments within the area is not yet available. This applies e.g. to better methods for calculating the number of homes which are severely inconvenienced by traffic noise, as defined in relation to the EU noise directive and the future strategy for road noise. Another area concerns the opportunities for developing an indicator which elucidates the transport sector's impact on biodiversity and habitats (in the form of barrier effects). A third potential area would be elucidation of the relative distribution between means of transport and the length of trips. There may also be a need to develop an indicator for the national share of passenger traffic performance carried out by means of international connections, including airlines.
Indicator 12.1:
Average length of trip analysed by activity
Source: The Traffic Survey
This indicator elucidates developments in efficient mobility through public and private transport solutions. The figure illustrates distances from home to workplace/place of education, from home to leisure activities, and from home to shopping facilities, etc.
Based on these figures, we see a clear general trend for increasing transport distances. This trend is more pronounced for shopping and leisure pursuits than for work. The figures for 2000 show pronounced increases for all purposes, but as this increase applies to one year only, it should be regarded with some caution.
The target is that the transport system to ensure that the public has access to work, shops, public services, and leisure activities. Developments suggest, however, that the distances travelled for such access have grown longer.
Indicator 12.2:
Traffic performance/GDP
Source: Statistics Denmark
This indicator elucidates developments in traffic performance. The figure describes the indexed development in traffic performance on roads and railways, measured in million kilometres, as well as developments in GDP, at constant prices (1995 prices). Traffic performance is a measure of the amount of kilometres travelled by vehicles.
Mobility is a main priority for the citizens of the Danish welfare society. Among other things, this is evident from the close links between developments in gross national product and transport consumption. Thus, there is a correlation between economic growth and developments in traffic performance.
To achieve sustainable development in the field of transport, the Government intends to decouple growth in the impacts of transport on the environment and health from economic growth. This objective is also central for the EU's work on transport and the environment. A relative decoupling of the increase in traffic from economic growth can be discerned. This is due to lower rates of growth within traffic performance for goods and passenger transport than within the overall economy.
Indicator 12.3:
Passenger transport performance and freight transport performance analysed by means of
transport
Source: Transport 2000; Statistics Denmark
This indicator elucidates the correlation between economic growth and greater negative impacts on health and the environment from transport. The distribution of passenger transport activities and freight transport activities (traffic performance) analysed by means of transport serves as an indicator for the relative environmental impact. Approximately 35 per cent of all CO2 emissions from the transport sector come from freight transport.
During the period 1990 to 2000, total passenger transport performance increased by almost 17 per cent. After 1996, there has been a relatively large increase in passenger transport by train. This increase is partly attributable to the opening of the bridge across the Great Belt. During the period 1990 to 1999, freight transport increased by 6 per cent. If ships and aircraft are left out of the calculations, the increase was 16 per cent. For ships and ferries, the period 1990 to 1999 is characterised by large fluctuations, with a strong decrease from 1997. The main explanation behind this decrease would be the opening of the bridge across the Great Belt. As ferries tend to consume more energy per unit transported than trains and passenger cars, the Great Belt bridge compensates amply for the increase in road transport caused by it. This is to say that a net reduction in CO2 emissions from freight transport can be observed.
There has been an increase in the total passenger transport by train in Denmark. As regards freight transport, there has been a relatively strong growth in van transport. This makes for a higher strain on the environment per kilometre, as vans typically transport very few goods in relation to their capacity.
Indicator 12.4:
Transport emissions (CO2, CO, PM10, NOX, NMVOC and SO2)
Source: The National Environmental Research Institute, Denmark
This indicator elucidates the environmental impact of transport, analysed by emission type. Pollutants from traffic are mainly nitrogen oxides (NOX), volatile organic compounds (NMVOC), sulphur dioxide (SO2), and particles and carbon moNOXide (CO). In Danish towns and cities, traffic is the main source of air pollution. CO2 emissions are primarily linked to the climate issue.
The transport sector accounts for approximately 27 per cent of Denmark's total emissions of greenhouse gases (CO2). During the period 1990 to 2000, emissions from the transport sector increased by 15 per cent. In 1999, road transport accounted for 93 per cent of the total CO2 emissions from the transport sector. Despite mounting traffic, emissions of NOX, NMVOC, and CO have fallen. This is due partly to the 1990 requirement stipulating that new petrol-powered cars must have catalytic converters and partly to the introduction of cleaner fuels. During the period 1988 to 1998, the number of cars fitted with catalytic converters grew from zero to more than half of the total stock of cars. In general terms, it can be observed that air pollution from traffic has fallen since the early 1990s.
This reduction is primarily the result of the ever stricter norms established by the EU. As demonstrated by the figures for the various forms of transport, development towards lower emissions is slowest for those forms of transport (cargo vessels and aircraft) which are mainly regulated through international organisations.
Indicator 12.5:
Number of fatalities analysed by means of transport
Source: Transport 2000; Statistics Denmark
This indicator concerns the objective of safe transport for everyone. The figure shows the number of fatalities occasioned by the various means of transport, thereby serving as an indicator for their relative safety.
During the period from 1990 to 1999, the number of traffic fatalities fell by 19 per cent. The number of serious and mild injuries fell by 12 per cent during the same period. This in spite of the fact that traffic performance increased by approximately 25 per cent at the same time. From 1990 to 1999, the number of casualties among cyclists and people driving mopeds was almost halved, with reductions of 46 per cent and 45 per cent, respectively. Similarly, there has been a marked decrease (31 per cent) in the number of casualties among pedestrians. There has been small decrease (5 per cent) in the number of drivers killed, from 284 in 1990 to 271 in 1999.
Developments are headed in the right direction as far as the objective on safe transport for everyone is concerned.
Indicator 12.6:
Average energy efficiency for passenger transport and freight transport
Source: The Danish Energy Authority's Odyssey Project
The development in average energy efficiency is an indicator of the negative environmental impact of transport. Transport performance includes kilometres covered by land, sea or air by the different types of transport. Better energy efficiency equals relatively smaller CO2 emissions per kilometre.
In an analysis carried out by the Council for Sustainable Energy in 1998, it is estimated that energy efficiency for new passenger cars increased by 1.2 per cent on average per year during the period 1980 to 1990, whereas the increase during the period 1990 to 1997 has been close to zero. After the period of stagnation in the mid-1990s, however, energy efficiency has increased markedly from 1997 onwards. Lorries over six tonnes have shown a slight improvement in energy consumption per tonne kilometre of approximately one per cent annually during the last century. Smaller lorries, weighing between 2 and 6 tonnes, account for almost the entire growth in traffic performance for freight transport by road. This development contributes to increased CO2 emissions from freight transport by road as smaller lorries have energy consumption per tonne kilometre which is more than eight times greater than that of larger lorries. However, it should be noted that this category of vehicle has also shown a decrease in additional consumption per tonne kilometre of about 20 per cent in this period. For goods trains, energy consumption has fallen when comparing 1999 consumption with 1980 levels. The reduction in energy consumption per tonne kilometre during the period 1991-1999 was approximately 33 per cent.
When considering all forms of transport as a whole, no noticeable improvements in average energy efficiency have been observed. This is to say that overall, new transport technology has not provided any decisive contribution towards meeting the Strategy objectives concerning reductions in CO2 emissions. Within the individual forms of transport, however, improvements in energy efficiency have been observed.
Indicator 12.7:
Average capacity utilisation and average load for lorries over 6 tonnes
Source: Statistics Denmark
This indicator elucidates the objective concerning more environmentally friendly transport options. Capacity utilisation describes the relationship between the total transport activities and the transport activities (traffic performance) which would have been carried out if all lorries had been fully loaded on all trips. Despite the uncertainties involved in the calculations, capacity utilisation constitutes one among several important indicators for the development towards a decoupling of resource consumption within freight transport from the value created by the sector.
For the period 1990 to 1999, we see that capacity utilisation for lorry trips (without trailers) has fallen for all weight categories. This development may partly be caused by an increase in loading capacity, and partly by a change in the type of freight transported.
The development regarding capacity utilisation within freight transport with heavy vehicles does not contribute to meeting the Strategy objectives concerning access and the environment. The indicator does, however, point out great potential for improvements in efficiency.
Indicator 12.8:
Energy efficiency of new passenger cars
Source: The Danish Ministry of Transport
Energy efficiency is an indicator for resource consumption as well as for CO2 emissions, as improvements in energy efficiency entail emissions of fewer grams of CO2 per kilometre.
Despite the fact that the weight of passenger cars continues to rise slightly, the average energy efficiency for new cars (petrol and diesel-powered cars alike) has gone up by 9 per cent from the second half of 1997 to the first half 2000. For new diesel cars, the increase during the period was 24 per cent, from 14.1 km/l in the second half of 1997 to 17.5 km/l in the first half of 2000. Developments in average energy efficiency have not been nearly as positive for newly registered petrol-powered cars as for diesel-powered cars. During the second half of 1997, the average petrol consumption for new petrol-powered cars was 12.9 km/l. In the first half of 2000, the corresponding figure was 13.7 km/l, which equals an increase of slightly more than 6 per cent.
The European Commission and the European, Korean, and Japanese car industries have entered into an agreement regarding improvements of the average energy efficiency of new passenger cars, corresponding to an average emission level of 140 g CO2/km before 2008/2009. In order to reach this objective with the present relative number of petrol-powered and dieselpowered cars, there is a need for a 6 per cent improvement for diesel cars and a 24 per cent improvement for petrol-powered cars before 2008/2009 in relation to current Danish levels. It should, however, be noted that the car industry has only committed itself in relation to the sales-weighted average, which means that the actual need for reductions will be somewhere between 6 and 24 per cent.