Orientering fra Miljøstyrelsen, 2/2004 – Waste Statistics 2002

Waste Statistics 2002

8 Projection of waste generation

8.1 Model suitability for describing historical developments

Section 8.2 presents a baseline projection of waste generation up to 2020. The so-called Risø model has been used for the projection.

The projection is based on the Budget Statement projection 2001, the latest projection from March 2001 from the Danish Energy Agency and a calibration of the model for ISAG data for 2000.

Before making the projection, the suitability of the model for describing historical developments in waste generation was evaluated. This was done by calibrating the model for Waste Statistics 2000, and having it calculate developments in waste arisings from 1994 – 2000.

Actual waste arisings for the period 1995 - 2000 have increased by about 14 per cent. ^[29] However, model calculations show waste arisings as unchanged. A significant part of this deviation is due to the fact that the model calculates a larger decrease in the generation of residues from coal-fired power plants than was actually the case.

As to generation stated endogenously ^[30] in the model, economic developments may explain around half of the increase in total generation from 1995 to 2000. Around 250,000 tonnes of the deviation of 977,000 tonnes in 1995 may be explained by a larger collection of garden waste which is described exogenously in the model ^[31].

In addition, the increase in recyclable fractions is considerably larger than the decrease in the generation of "various non-combustible". A significant part of this increase is due to increased recycling of construction and demolition waste. If this is adjusted, there is a deviation in 1995 of around 400,000 tonnes between the model and actual generation registered. This deviation is due to significantly higher generation in 2000, particularly in the fractions ferrous metals, wood, soil and stone and sludge.

8.2 Baseline projection of waste generation 1994 – 2020

The baseline projection of waste generation estimates an increase in total waste generation from 2000 to 2020 of 27 per cent, corresponding to an increase from 13 million tonnes in 2000 to 16.5 million tonnes in 2020, cf. Figure 1 ^[32].

The baseline projection describes expected developments in waste generation on the basis of estimated economic activity. It is assumed that no new political waste politicy initiatives are launched.

An increase in production and consumption of 43 per cent and 53 per cent respectively is, however, expected. Thus, the model projects waste generation to increase less than economic activity. Significant reasons for this are the decreasing use of coal at power plants and expected low growth in building and construction activities.

Click here to see Figure 27.

As Figure 27 shows, the baseline projection estimates a steeper increase in amounts of "combustible" waste and "non-combustible" waste than in recyclable fractions such as paper and cardboard, glass, and plastic.

Amounts of ferrous metals and automobile tyres are expected to show a relatively high increase due to the expected increase in industrial production and the expected increase in private consumption of transport.

The modest increase in amounts of slag is due to an expectation of an almost constant use of coal in the period.

Amounts of beet soil are expected to decrease due to new technologies causing less soil to stick to the beets during harvesting. However, depending on weather conditions during harvesting there are normally large variations over the years.

Amounts of sludge from municipal wastewater treatment plants are expected to increase due to new treatment technologies causing water contents in the sludge to increase with unchanged amounts of dry matter. This is expected to lead to an increase of 500,000 tonnes in the next five years without a corresponding increase in dry matter amounts.

This means that the rate of waste for recycling will decrease from around 64.8 per cent in 2000 to around 62.5 per cent in 2020. Correspondingly, the rate led to incineration will pass from around 24 per cent in 2000 to around 26.4 per cent in 2020. The rate led to landfill will remain relatively constant at around 11 per cent, cf. Figure 28.

Click here to see Figure 28.

Footnotes

[29] Part of the increase is attributable to extension of the statistical basis.

[30] I.e. calculated within the assumptions of the model.

[31] I.e. fixed beyond the model.

[32] Note that e.g. amounts of paper and cardboard are not an expression of total potential of this fraction, but merely state amounts of paper and cardboard separated for recycling. The fraction "combustible" thus may also contain paper and cardboard and other recyclable fractions.