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Denmark's Fourth National Communication on Climate Change 6. Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptation measures
6.1 CLIMATE IN THE FUTUREIn relation to future global climate change, Denmark is a robust country. This is primarily because of a long tradition of legislation which prevents building in river valleys, along the coast and in forests. Agricultural land is well-drained and many farmers are able to irrigate in dry periods. Moreover, the Danish population is aware of, and uses systematic warning systems of extreme weather events and the consequences thereof. Natural and man-made forcings of the climate of the future, e.g. volcanic eruptions, varied solar activity, increased greenhouse effect and emissions of aerosols are best assessed using climate models. Simple projections on the basis of the current climate and observed trends only provide a limited impression of possible future climate changes. Climate models, which are based on the laws of physics and facts, are mathematical descriptions of the components of the climate system: atmosphere, ocean, ice and snow, land surfaces and the biosphere. Calculations are carried out on large computers and increasingly demand cooperation between modelling centres in order to reduce or quantify uncertainties. The most important source of uncertainty regarding the future climate is related to the lack of knowledge on future greenhouse gas emissions. In addition there is uncertainty regarding the sensitivity of the climate system to these greenhouse gases. Finally, uncertainty is linked to the interrelationship between changes in the global climate and the regional effects that may arise. These effects can be divided into direct consequences of climate change and indirect effects resulting from climate change in countries outside the Danish Realm. 6.2 CLIMATE TRENDS IN DENMARK6.2.1 The latest developmentsSince the Ice Age, Denmark has had a temperate coastal climate. This climate, with wet winters and cool summers is now changing. The latest statistics1 from DMI (Danish Meteorological Institute) show that the mean temperature is approaching 8.5°C, an increase of almost 1.5°C since the end of the 19th century. This increase is more than double the increase in the global mean temperature for the same period. Now, the average winter temperature is most often warmer than 2°C and the average summer temperature is about 16°C. The annual precipitation measured in Denmark is now about 750 mm. This has increased by about 15% - or 100 mm – since records began in 1874. Precipitation is greatest in west and Southern Jutland, with almost 1000 mm, and least precipitation is measured on the eastern islands, where about 600 mm is recorded each year. It is typical that wet areas experience the greatest percentage increase. Therefore, precipitation has increased most in west Jutland, by about 20% in the past 85 years. In the same period drainage into water courses has increased correspondingly2. As a result, run-off of nutrients from agricultural soil continues to be very large in wet years, despite national initiatives in the Action Plans for the Aquatic Environment I-III. The link between precipitation, drainage and run-off must be taken into account when the EU Water Framework Directive is to be implemented. The Danish climate has become more maritime in the 20th century. On average, the cloud cover has increased by about 5 percentage points since observations began in 1874. With the clouds, more precipitation has come, there are fewer days with snow cover, and temperatures are higher. The direct consequences such as decreased need for ice-breaking, shorter sledging season, earlier pollen season, longer growing season and longer swimming season, can already be felt by the Danish population. The sea level around Denmark has risen over the past 115 years. The maximum observed rise is in southwestern Denmark, where the water level is rising by about 1 mm per year. In northern and eastern Denmark uplift of the land after the Ice Age is roughly in line with the rise in sea level. 6.2.2 Projected climate changes in DenmarkThe natural causes of future climate change are difficult to assess in advance. The basis for assessing the increased greenhouse effect is also uncertain for several reasons. An important source of uncertainty about the future climate arises from the lack of knowledge about future global emissions of greenhouse gases and other substances that affect the climate. Moreover, there is uncertainty regarding the sensitivity of the climate system to these greenhouse gases. DMI/Denmark's Climate Centre (in cooperation with the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research and the Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie in Hamburg) has carried out global and regional calculations for several internationally recognised scenarios for future emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols3. Analyses with global and regional climate models show the following general trend for the climate in Denmark in the period 2071-2100 in relation to 1961-1990:
A combined positive effect on the runoff from landareas has been calculated. There would be an increase of the order of 10% in the period December to April when the conincided effect of increased winter precipitation and greater evaporation is taken into account. A bigger runoff in the entire Baltic region could make the surface layers in the inner Danish waters less saline. In combination with changed wind conditions and increased run-off of nutrients, this could present a risk of negative consequences for marine ecosystems and commercial fish stocks in the form oxygen depletion. Note that the uncertainty mentioned above is significant in assessing future climate change, especially in projecting precipitation and extreme weather phenomena such as storms and floods. The DMI models and most other models show climate sensitivity at about 3°C for a doubling in the CO2 content in the atmosphere, but new model studies, published in 2005 in the journal Nature5, show that climate sensitivity could be considerably greater than hitherto assumed. 6.2.3 Impacts and Denmark's possibilities for adaptationEarlier evaluations The impacts of possible climate changes in Denmark have been evaluated several times since 1988, and most recently in the Danish EPA report of 2004: Adapting to the climate of the future6. The general conclusion is that the direct impacts in moderate climate scenarios would be modest and could be countered by suitable ongoing adaptation. Overall, estimates indicate that it will be an advantage to plan long-term and keep to appropriate safety margins. At first, this means identifying the areas of society which require short-term decisions, whilst continuously improving the basis for decisions which can wait. The Report points out that changes in the extreme climate could be the cause of the greatest future surprises for the Danish people. Local decision-makers are encouraged to incorporate climate change in all current decisions on planning and ongoing maintenance. In October 2005 the Danish government initiated preparations to meet the primary impacts of climate change. The purpose is on the basis of three possible future climate scenarios to establish a catalogue of consequences and measures. Systematic evaluations have not been made of secondary impacts for Denmark, for example in the form of changing tourist patterns, environmental refugees, agricultural prices/subsidies, or changed possibilities for wind turbine exports. For a small, export-oriented and open economy such as Denmark, such secondary impacts could easily be more important than the primary impacts. Water resources The size of the water resource is influenced by both access to groundwater and consumption of water. With the prospect of warmer summers, with greater risks of heavy downpours and longer periods without precipitation or even of drought, Denmark can expect an increased demand for water for several purposes:
Net precipitation is expected to increase as a result of the increasing difference between winter and summer precipitation. A change in precipitation patterns with fewer rain events, but of greater intensity will, however, affect surface drainage and thus formation of groundwater. Just as important as the quantity of groundwater is its quality. Along low-lying coasts, the intrusion of salt water may affect the quality of groundwater. With a rising sea level, salt penetration would present a greater risk, which may lead to limitations on water-extraction possibilities in more places than is the case today. Two studies in 2003 and 2004 have indicated the need for extraordinary action in the water area. In its report, the Academy of Technical Sciences7 pointed in particular to the need to plan renovation of drainage systems so that they will also be able to function in a future wetter climate. Furthermore, in 2003 the Danish Board of Technology8 held workshops aimed at the public on the local possibilities for adapting to a global sea-level rise of half a meter. One of the more surprising results was that it was not important to promote construction of fixed installations to secure against flooding of agricultural land. There was some agreement on an approach based on appropriate adaptation through slow, natural development of the coastline. Agriculture For Danish agriculture, the overall effects are estimated to be advantageous. Changes in cultivation practice can be implemented at short notice, and production is expected to grow with rising temperature and CO2 concentrations. EU regulation is currently causing a development leading to less dairy production and increasing production of pig meat. The projected climate changes could reinforce this trend because market constraints in the dairy sector would limit production. In this context, the forthcoming EU CAP will play a greater role than climate change. Despite the extreme summer heat in Germany, France and Spain in 2003, where the harvest in several places fell by up to 30%, there was no overall drop in farmers' incomes because higher prices meant better profits in the countries which were not affected. In the longer term – in a climate under change – Denmark is favourably placed in the EU internal market. However, higher temperatures and humidity could increase the risk of pests and plant diseases, resulting in an increased demand for pesticides. At the same time, increased production would require more nutrients for plants, which, together with more precipitation and higher soil temperatures in winter, as well as irrigation in summer, would increase the risk of nutrient leaching and run-off. Implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive will help ensure both cost-effective agriculture and long-term protection of water resources in a future changed climate. Forestry Climate change, for instance changes in temperature, precipitation, and wind affects flora and fauna. The long lifecycle of forest trees (typically 80-100 years) and a limited ability to adapt within one tree generation may cause a number of problems. Denmark is placed centrally in a vegetation belt of temperate deciduous forest, and, with moderate future climate change, a majority of existing tree species that thrive well today are expected to persist in Denmark. Norway spruce, however, may be the exception. Norway spruce occures naturally in regions with cold winters, and the species has already shown signs of poorer health in periods with warmer winters and much precipitation. Summers characterised by drought may have a potentially larger effect on Norway spruce, because its roots do not reach as far into the ground as other species. Norway spruce makes up approx. 28% of the area covered by vegetation, and – often being grown in monoculture – there is also a large risk of forest fires, even if today this is not a major problem. Beside its effects on the growth of trees, regeneration dynamics, and stability, a changed climate may also pave the way for introduction of new pests or for propagation of existing known pests, which, possibly in combination with weakened vegetation, may cause problems relating to forest health and stability. Changes in forest management practices could be one way to adapt. A higher atmospheric content of CO2 and longer growth seasons will increase forest increment, and will also improve water household of trees in connection with photosynthesis. In contrast, warmer and drier summers may cause problems relating to water household, and be significant in relation to forest health, which again may reduce forest increment. Already today, the National Forest Programme, the Forest Act, and associated support schemes, are assisting in the development of more robust forests, making them more flexible and tolerant towards changing climate variables, for instance precipitation. Adaptation takes the form of continuous efforts to shift to near-nature forestry and focus on genetic diversity in the choice of tree species and plant material. Cooperating with the Royal Veterinary and Agricultural University9, the Danish Forest and Nature Agency has also been in charge of the development of new concepts for near-nature forestry. The statutory windfall pool provides for economic support for replanting robust tree species. The list of species and provinence is updated on a continuous basis, thus enabling the best possible adaptation to the climate of the future. In accordance with national goals, forest areas must be increased and forest landscapes must cover 20-25% of Denmark in the course of one tree generation (80-100 years.). Natural ecosystems Many species of fauna and flora have their natural limit of extent close to Denmark, and a certain northward shift of species could therefore be expected. However, not all foreign species would be equally welcome. Pests such as the Colorado beetle have long had their northern limit just south of Denmark. The progress of the Iberian slug in recent years may be connected with a generally milder winter climate. Overall, there are a number of animal and plant species which should still be monitored because they appear to be very sensitive to climate change. Overall, it is estimated that limited changes in the climate may lead to greater biodiversity. Both freshwater and marine ecosystems are sensitive to climate change. At the moment it is not possible to estimate the total impacts. A large inter-disciplinary research project called CONWOY10 is being funded by the Danish research councils. The aim is to clarify the consequences of future climate change on the aquatic environment. For example, long-term experiments have been initiated using artificial heating of controlled marine and lake ecosystems. The results of these experiments will be presented at a scientific conference in 2006. A new project, CLIMAITE11, is looking into the ability of terrestrial ecosystems to adapt to the warmer and drier climate of the future. The project will be completed in 2007/2008. Coastal zone management The Danish coastline partly comprises active coastal cliffs where the sea erodes material, and partly beach-ridge complexes, where the material is deposited in the lee of prevailing winds. About 80% of the population live in urban areas connected to the coast. A total of about 1800 km of coastline is protected by dykes or other fixed installations. In recent years beach nourishment has increasingly been used to protect exposed stretches of coastline. As mentioned above, at the workshops organised by the Danish Board of Technology, there seems to be some agreement with the idea of keeping a natural coastline – if necessary at the expense of agricultural areas. A special problem is linked to low-lying areas that are exposed to both increases in the sea level and are under pressure from increasing drainage from the land. In particular, many of the coastal towns near estuaries of larger rivers or at the bottom of fjords could have complex problems. Merely building higher dykes, for instance, is not a long-term solution as the problem of backwater flooding will just become greater as a result of river water being unable to flow freely into the sea. A long-term solution requires the involvement of river valleys further inland. There is a need for space for rivers to allow flood plains to flood regularly to take some of the pressure off at river mouths. One of the tools to change land use in river valleys could be through the EU agricultural subsidy schemes, to make river valleys far more multi-functional. Energy supply Up to now, Denmark has been able to adapt energy systems to the existing temperate coastal climate which traditionally has no need for, e.g. air conditioning (although many new cars are now fitted with an air-conditioning system). Overall, the climate changes will imply less heating needs, and this will lead to significantly less energy consumption. The current conversion from fossil fuels, including gas and oil from the North Sea, to various renewable energy sources, is increasing Denmark's dependency on weather and climate-sensitive energy sources. The scenarios show that there will be more wind for wind turbines. Furthermore, increased precipitation will affect neighbouring Nordic countries, meaning more supply of hydro-electricity. However, the supply of electricity will probably be more unstable due to natural variations in climate. Finally, it is possible to convert energy production to biofuels. These are also climate-sensitive to some degree, especially if the storm climate changes and larger areas of Norway spruce plantations are blown down and must be burnt. If the need for air conditioning in housing, agricultural buildings and other commercial buildings increases in line with increases in temperature, it will be necessary to consider the consequences for humans and animals without access to air conditioning. Recent studies from London12 indicate that increased use of air conditioning could move the heat problem into the streets. To a certain extent, the same can be said of air conditioning in cars. Thus, it is important to think more long-term in this area. Health Over the next 100 years, the projected changes in climate could lead to direct health impacts in the form of a higher risk of heat stroke, especially amongst the old and sick. The extreme summer heat in Europe in 2003, for example, led to increased mortality in several European countries. It has been estimated that as many as 30,000 additional deaths can be ascribed to the extreme summer heat. It is already possible to ascertain that the health impacts of greater amounts of pollen and the earlier pollen season can possibly explain the increase in the incidence of allergies. Finally, there is a risk that vector-borne diseases could become more widespread, for example, from more malarial mosquitoes, or more Borrelia or TBE-bearing ticks. A greater risk of new infection paths and sources could also arise because of an increasing number of refugees – possibly from climate and environmental disasters in other countries. This would increase the risk not only of “southern” diseases, but also of diseases that are presently under control in Denmark - e.g. tuberculosis. 6.3 CLIMATE CHANGES IN GREENLANDGreenland has an Arctic climate. About 80% of the land is covered by the up to 3 km-thick ice sheet, while the ice-free land areas are limited to a coastal strip 50-300 km wide. Furthest south, and closest to the edge of the ice, the climate is sub-Arctic with a mean temperature of more than 10°C in July. The climate in south-west Greenland, where most of the 55,000 population live is low-Arctic. It is characterised by relatively mild winters with a lot of snow and periods of thaw and wet summers with average temperatures of less than 10°C in the warmest month. North and north-east Greenland are in the high-Arctic zone. The climate has continental characteristics with very cold winters – down to minus 50 degrees (Celsius) in north Greenland. The temperature is rarely above freezing from September to May. Winter precipitation is limited as parts of north Greenland has a desert climate with less than 25 mm precipitation per year, corresponding to about 1% of the precipitation at the southern tip of Greenland. The continental climate in high-Arctic Greenland is ascribed to the Polar Ice from the Arctic Ocean, which hitherto have made up the often up to several-hundred-kilometre-wide belt of pack-ice, which floats southwards along the east coast of Greenland. In recent years, the extent of the Polar Ice has been reduced for long periods, and this has led to unusual events such as wave erosion along the coasts which previously had not seen open sea to the same extent. The climate in high-Arctic Greenland is greatly influenced by the amount and spread of the Polar Ice. Analyses using global and regional climate models13 show the following general trends in the climate in Greenland for the period 2071-2100 compared with 1961-1990 for a middle-high scenario:
Almost the entire population of Greenland live in towns and settlements in the low-Arctic part of the country, where the main industry is fisheries. Only in the northernmost part of the high-Arctic region on the west and east coasts are there small communities that live to some extent from hunting mammals and birds. A description is given in the following two sections of what could or would happen on land and in the marine environment as a consequence of the expected climate changes. The description is based exclusively on general evaluations14 with the present knowledge concerning factors determining the welfare of the relevant species and ecosystems15. 6.3.1 Effects and possibility for adaptation on landHumans Seen from the point of view of the local community, the changes mentioned would be of limited practical importance and perhaps even an advantage in the form of more plant growth, more reindeer and musk oxen and perhaps better possibilities for farming in south Greenland. The increased thawing of the permafrost could bring problems in areas where houses, roads, airports and other structures have foundations in the permafrost, but since the vast majority of structures in Greenland stand on solid rock, the problem would only be a local one. Increased melting of the ice cap would provide more water - for hydropower for example - but this resource is not generally a constraint today. However, extensive melting may cause problems for the supply of water. The costs of heating in the winter would be reduced and there would generally be fewer problems from hard frost. The importance of the snow cover As a consequence of earlier snow melting in low-Arctic Greenland, higher summer temperatures and more summer precipitation, a longer growing season can be expected and thus a more extensive and vigorous plant cover. Immigration of species from the south can be envisaged, but would be impeded by barriers in the form of open seawater and competition from already established species. There is a risk of most of the high-Arctic zone disappearing together with the special fauna and flora that are adapted to precisely this zone. In north-east Greenland, large areas are completely without vegetation. There are few species of Arctic flora and fauna, and those present have adapted to the extreme climate conditions. Many plants and mammals depend on a stable snow cover to protect them against the cold. Other species are dependent on the snow disappearing early - or being blown away altogether in winter. The distribution, duration, and thickness of the snow cover are therefore just as important factors as the temperature for the general conditions of life for many plants and animals in Greenland. In high-Arctic Greenland, more ample precipitation would presumably mean more extensive plant cover, and large parts of this zone would possibly change character to become more like low-Arctic areas. Mammals Greenland's fauna as a whole would presumably also benefit from a milder climate and consequently more fertile and widespread plant growth, although there are important exceptions. Many of the species in high-Arctic Greenland are dependent on the dry continental climate. This applies, for example, to the musk ox, where thicker snow cover and more frequent periods of thaw in winter (with the formation of ice crusts in the snow) could make it difficult for the animals to forage. Examples of this are already known with the present climatic conditions, and reindeer died out for the same reason in the whole of high-Arctic Greenland during a snowy period more than 100 years ago. The artificially established population of musk oxen in south-west Greenland is hardlien likely to suffer similar problems. On the contrary, both reindeer and musk oxen might thrive even better in the continental low-Arctic region. 6.3.2 Effects and possibility for adaptation at seaHumans For Greenland society, a warmer climate would probably mean increased fishing opportunities in the form of more cod, Norway haddock and other species, but fewer prawns. The possibilities for hunting ring seals and polar bears would probably be reduced, while the occurrence of several other game animals would depend more on the pressure of hunting itself. Communication conditions would be much better because the period of open water would be longer, making it easier for boats to call at many towns and settlements. The produc-tion of calved ice could, however, increase by increased melting of ice, thus affecting navigation conditions. There would be far less Polar Ice. The possibility of using solid sea ice to get from place to place could be reduced as a result of thinner and later ice cover. Melting of glaciers could have a negative effect on tourism, but the improved communication - including a longer summer season - could have a positive effect. Marine mammals In north-east Greenland the expected climate change would reduce the thickness of the ice in the fjords, and extend the ice-free period. As a result, more light would penetrate down in the water column, and this would stimulate biological production. Increased fresh water supply as a consequence of increased precipitation and melting of the ice cap in the inner parts of the fjords would increase the water exchange in the fjords and bring more nutritious water in from the open sea, thus contributing still further to increased primary production. Rising winter temperatures would mean that the ice will not reach the same thickness as today and could therefore break up more easily in spring. Overall, the walrus would benefit most from future climate change in high-Arctic Greenland. The polar bear, on the other hand, is facing an uncertain future in east Greenland. If the ice disappears it will reduce the bears' hunting grounds and they would probably follow the ice northwards. Seals, which are attached to the ice, would presumably become concentrated in smaller areas with ice and would therefore be more easily accessible to the bears, but in the longer term, the number of bears would decrease. In addition, the polar bear is not good at hunting seals in water. The ice conditions on the west coast of Greenland would probably not change as much as on the east coast, and the polar bears on the west coast would therefore be less affected by the climatic changes than those on the east coast. Whales associated with sea-ice, such as the narwhale, the white whale, and the Greenland whale, would have reduced living areas in the winter months, while new areas would become available to them in the summer months. In winter, the whales would experience increased competition for food from other marine mammals. Other species of whale that use the Arctic and north-boreal waters in summer would be able to use more northern areas. Fisheries resources For many of Greenland's fish species, the cold seas off Greenland limit their dispersal, for example, cod, Norway haddock, striped catfish, halibut and herring, which have their northern limit there. Therefore, relatively small variations in the temperature of the sea could result in considerable fluctuations in the dispersal of many fish species. The trend in cod fishing largely follows the average sea temperature. In the last 30 years, cod and a number of other boreal fish species have largely disappeared as a consequence of a generally colder climate in south and west Greenland. Today, more cold-adapted populations of prawn, crab, and halibut constitute the main commercial fishing resources in Greenland. A change in sea currents and a rise in temperature as a consequence of the climate changes would probably improve the conditions for cod and some other commercially exploited fish species in these areas. Increased cod stocks, however, would have a negative effect of prawn stocks due to predation. Our knowledge about the way the ecosystems function is constantly improving, but in the case of such large changes in such a short space of time, we still know too little to make precise predictions. One of the biggest uncertainties in connection with the marine environment in south Greenland is the extent to which the sea currents and thus sea temperatures follow changes in air temperature. The balance between the part of the seawater in southwest Greenland that comes from the cold east Greenland current and the part that comes from the warm North Atlantic drift (a branch of the Gulf Stream, which bends westward, south around Iceland), and the cold water masses in Baffin Bay and Davis Strait totally determines the ecological conditions off south-west Greenland, where most of Greenland's population live. 6.4 CLIMATE CHANGES ON THE FAROE ISLANDSThe Faeroe Islands have an extreme maritime climate, where the differences between summer and winter are relatively small. Analyses with global climate models show the following general trend for the climate on the Faroe Islands in the period 2071-2100 in relation to the period 1961-1990:16
6.4.1 Impacts and adaptation in terrestrial and marine ecosystemsOnly minor changes in terrestrial ecosystems are expected following the expected climate changes. The isolation of the Faroe Islands in the Atlantic Ocean may have the consequence that climate-induced changes in plant and animal life will be unbalanced. Thus, the rate of possible species loss from terrestrial ecosystems may not be counterbalanced by a similar immigration rate, resulting in reduced species diversity. The greatest changes are expected at sea. Warmer deep water could result in a redistribution of pelagic and benthic communities, which could lead to unexpected consequences for fisheries. Fish species that settle in shallow waters in the early spring such as flatfish, lumpfish, and species with pelagic drifting eggs and larvae would be at greatest risk. The incidence of cod seems to be very dependent on marine currents. That there have been more storms than normal in recent years, could have contributed to the disappearance of the cod by blowing the fry towards waters too cold for their survival. A reduction in water arriving from the south would worsen the present lack of the fry's favourite food. The impact on marine mammals and birds is primarily expected to concern spatial shifts in areas of food production and primary production. 6.5 ASSESSMENT OF THE SIGNIFICANCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR THE WHOLE ARCTICIn autumn 2004, the Arctic Council17 published its assessment of the significance of climate change for the Arctic in the report Impacts of a warming Arctic (ACIA). The report is based on contributions from more than 300 climate and climate-effect researchers and it shows that climate changes in the Arctic will be more severe than in any other place on the globe, and that this will have extensive consequences both regionally and globally. The Danish Realm has contributed to the report through a number of specific studies, projects and texts. The integrated climate and climate-effect measurement programme that has operated for almost 10 years at the high-Arctic measuring station Zackenberg in north-east Greenland has made significant contributions to describing and understanding climate effects in the Arctic, and it is one of the few programmes helping establish long-term data series in the area. It is expected that the Realm will continue this and other climate-relevant Arctic initiatives in future years, amongst other things as follow-up to the Arctic Council declaration on ACIA (24 November 2004) and the recommendations of the ACIA Report. Notes 1 Cappelen, 2000; Cappelen, 2004; Cappelen 2005 2 Ministry of the Environment, 2004: Nature & Environment 2003 Theme: Water in Denmark. (Available at www.mst.dk) 3 Christensen, 2000; Stendel et al., 2000; Stendel et al., 2001; Christensen and Christensen, 2001, 2003, 2004; May,1999; May, 2001; Andersen et al., 2001; Christensen at al., 2002; Christensen 2005 4 Kaas et al. 2001: Christensen 2005 5 Stainforth et al., 2005 6 Danish EPA, 2004: Adapting to the climate of the future (available at www.mst.dk) 7 Academy of Technical Sciences published a report in 2003 in Danish: Effekter af Klimaændringer – tilpasning i Danmark. (available in Danish at www.atv.dk) 8 In February 2004 the Danish Board of Technology held two scenario workshops to involve the public in two local areas in discussions on the risks from global rise in sea levels. The results are available in a report in Danish at www.tekno.dk. 9 Jørgen Bo Larsen/KVL, 2005: Contribution to the EPA and DMI ”Nyt Klimaforum” on 15 April and Handlingsplan for naturnær skovdrift, Ministry of the Environment, Forest and Nature Agency, May 2005 10 The CONWOY project is funded by Natural Science Research Council (further information on the project is available on http://www.conwoy.ku.dk/) 11 The CLIMAITE project is financed by private funds (further information on the project is available on http://www.climaite.dk) 12 UKCIP, 2002: London's warming. The impacts of Climate Change on London. (available at www.ukcip.org.uk) 13 May, 1999; Stendel et al., 2000 14 Assessments by Hans Meltofte and Søren Rysgaard, NERI and Søren Anker Pedersen, Greenland Nature Institute, March 2003 15 Vibe, 1967; Heide-Jørgensen and Johnsen ,1998; Petersen et al., 2001; Meltofte, 2002; Rysgaard et al., 2003 16 May, 1999; Stendel et al., 2000 17 In addition to the Danish Realm, the Arctic Council comprises Canada, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Russia and the US
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