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Denmark's Fourth National Communication on Climate Change

5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures

• 5.1 Introduction and overall effect of policies and measures
• 5.2 Energy including all activities with fuel combution within transport, military, business, agriculture, forestry, fisheries and the domestic sector
  • 5.2.1 Methods
  • 5.2.2 Assumptions and key parameters
  • 5.2.3 Results
  • 5.2.4 Sensitivity analyses and scenario calculations
• 5.3 Transport
  • 5.3.1 Methods
  • 5.3.2 Assumptions and key parameters
  • 5.3.3 Results
  • 5.3.4 Sensitivity analyses and scenario calculations
• 5.4 Industry
  • 5.4.1 Methods
  • 5.4.2 Assumptions and key parameters
  • 5.4.3 Results
  • 5.4.4 Sensitivity analyses and scenario calculations
• 5.5 Agriculture
  • 5.5.1 Methods
  • 5.5.2 Assumptions and key parameters
  • 5.5.3 Results
  • 5.5.4 Sensitivity analyses and scenario calculations
• 5.6 Forestry
  • 5.6.1 Methods
  • 5.6.2 Assumptions and key parameters
  • 5.6.3 Results
  • 5.6.4 Sensitivity analyses and scenario calculations
• 5.7 Waste
  • 5.7.1 Methods
  • 5.7.2 Assumptions and key parameters
  • 5.7.3 Results
  • 5.7.4 Sensitivity analyses and scenario calculations
• 5.8 Total emissions of greenhouse gases in the projection with measures
  • 5.8.1 Carbondioxide,CO₂
  • 5.8.2 Methane (CH₄)
  • 5.8.3 Nitrous oxide, N₂O
  • 5.8.4 Industrial gases HFCs, PFCs and SF₆
  • 5.8.5 Denmark's total greenhouse gas emissions and removals
• 5.9 Projections without measures
• 5.10 Projections with additional measures
• 5.11 Greenland and the Faroe Islands
  • 5.11.1 Greenland
  • 5.11.2 The Faroe Islands

5.1 INTRODUCTION AND OVERALL EFFECT OF POLICIES AND MEASURES

According to the EU's burden sharing agreement, Denmark has committed itself to a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 21% in the period 2008-2012 in relation to the base year 1990/95 under the Kyoto Protocol.

In connection with this agreement, Denmark had reservations with respect to effects of large imports of electricity from Norway and Sweden in the base year 1990, which reduced Denmark's emissions that year by 6.3 mill. tonnes of CO₂ compared to the domestic production of electricity to cover consumption. The Danish position was, and is, that the Danish EU reduction commitment should not be based on low emissions in a single year like in 1990, where low emissions were due to exceptionally large imports of electricity. In March 2002, Denmark had to accept a Council decision subjecting Denmark to the legal commitment to reduce emissions by 21% compared to the base year, without correcting for imports of electricity.

Denmark was, however, assured in a political declaration from the EU Council of Ministers and the European Commission that the assumptions relating to base year emissions will be taken into account in connection with fixing the assigned amount of emissions in 2006, measured in tonnes of CO₂ equivalents. The government, therefore, aims at a reduction burden for Denmark in 2008-2012 which is equal to 21% of the 1990 level corrected for imports of electricity. The difference corresponds to 5 mill. tonnes of CO₂ equivalents annually in 2008-2012.

The shortfall in respect of fulfilling Denmark's obligations with the existing policies and measures has been calculated both for a situation in which account is taken of the electricity import in 1990 and for a situation in which account is not taken of this.

The projections are based on a number of sector-specific projections of the domestic emissions for this period. These emissions depend on the extent of economic activity in all sectors of society, energy prices, technological development, and legislation regulating individual activities in relation to the environment, energy efficiency, etc. Among the most important preconditions are the Ministry of Finances' estimate of economic development and the IEA's expectations regarding future energy prices. The projections are also based on measures already adopted described in Chapter 4 and annex B. Corresponding to the most recent inventory of greenhouse gas emissions, the legal reduction commitment of 21% entails that Denmark has to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions from an amount corresponding to 69.6 mill. tonnes of CO₂ equivalents in the base year 1990/95 to 55 mill. tonnes of CO₂ equivalents in 2008-2012.

The most recent projections from May 2005 include the period 2004-2030 and are shown in Annex E. Projections for 2013-2030 are, however, somewhat more uncertain than the projections up to 2013, due to several factors, including the fact that uncertainties concerning measures and their expected effects increase with projection length. The projection is a “with measures” projection, which includes measures that have been or are expected to be implemented. Therefore the projection must not be confused with the most likely development, since effects of new political initiatives, which will most likely be implemented as part of the continued follow-up to the Climate Strategy, have not been taken into account.

Since the Climate Strategy of 2003 and the associated baseline projection without additional measures, a new baseline projection with measures has been prepared and the previous emission inventories have been up-dated as a result of new knowledge, including new figures for the base year. Therefore the climate deficit has changed in comparison to the estimate in the Climate Strategy. The deficit is what Denmark lacks to fulfil the target for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto Protocol and EU burden sharing.

In the new “with measures” baseline projection from May 2005 Denmark's expected annual net greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto Protocol for the period 2008-2012 correspond to 72.3 mill. tonnes of CO₂ equivalents, as shown in Table 5.1. The emissions in the new baseline projection are 7.8 mill. tonnes of CO₂ equivalents lower than in the previous baseline projection without additional measures, on which the Climate Strategy was based. The new baseline projection for the entire period 2004-2030 is shown in Figure 5.1, altogether and aggregated into the economic sectors described in Chapter 4.

FIGURE 5.1 DENMARK’S EXPECTED NET GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS UNDER THE KYOTO PROTOCOL FOR 2004-2030 IN THE NEW BASELINE PROJECTION, WHICH IS A PROJECTION “WITH MEASURES”, I.E. A PROJECTION THAT ONLY INCLUDES EXPECTED EFFECTS OF EXISTING AND ADOPTED MEASURES. BOTH ACCUMULATED AND NON-ACCUMULATED TRENDS ARE SHOWN.

Source: 1990-2003: The National Inventory Report (NIR), the National Environmental Research Institute (NERI), April 2005.
2004-2030: Projection of greenhouse gas emissions, Memorandum to the Danish EPA, NERI, May 2005.

The decrease of 7.8 mill. tonnes of CO₂ equivalents in the projection for the period 2008-2012 is primarily due to the reduction in exports of electricity, e.g. as a result of price effects of new electricity production capacity in Finland and Sweden and of the introduction of the EU allowance regulation. The reduction in exports of electricity corresponds to almost 5.5 mill. tonnes of CO₂ (from 9.9 to 4.4 mill. tonnes of CO₂). To this can be added a reduction corresponding to approx. 2 mill. tonnes of CO₂ equivalents in the energy sector due to the continued shift towards more natural gas and renewable energy, which is in reality even bigger, since the figure also includes expectations adjusted upward to emissions corresponding to approx. 1.3 mill. tonnes of CO₂ equivalents from extraction in the North Sea.

In the business sector, the change in the new projection corresponds to the effect of Kemira's termination of nitric acid production in Denmark, since the reduction in the industry's energy consumption, corresponding to approx. 0.5 mill. tonnes of CO₂ equivalents has largely been compensated for by a similar increase in process emissions, where the increase from cement production contributes the most (almost 0.4 mill. tonnes of CO₂ equivalents).

The increase in the domestic sector follows the upward-adjusted projection of energy consumption.

Of the increase of 0.4 mill. tonnes of CO₂ equivalents from waste, almost 0.3 mill. tonnes are due to the new inclusion of methane and nitrous oxide from wastewater. Since this source has also been included in the base year 1990 and it is almost unchanged, up-dating emission inventories and projections to include this source does not alter the deficit. But the deficit is influenced slightly by the up-dated projection of 0.1 mill. tonnes of CO₂ equivalents of methane from landfills due to up-dated waste statistics.

To these expected effects of new measures and changes on the total result due to the new projection of emissions should be added expected effects of funds allocated for projects reducing greenhouse gas emissions in other countries - that is the JI and CDM projects, cf. articles 6 and 12 in the Kyoto Protocol. Since the Climate Strategy for the period 20032008 was agreed, Denmark has allocated DKK 1,130 mill. to such projects, corresponding to 4.5 mill. tonnes of CO₂ equivalents annually in 2008-2012 at an average price of DKK 50 per tonne.

As appears on Table 5.1 the Danish deficit is estimated on this background to be approx. 13 mill. tonnes of CO₂ equivalents annually, based on Denmark's legal commitment under the EU Burden Sharing Agreement. This is based on a situation where no correction has been made for the particularly large imports of electricity in 1990.

If this correction is made as assumed by Denmark, the deficit is reduced to approx. 8 mill. tonnes of CO₂ equivalents annually in 2008-2012, as shown in Table 5.1.

Compared to the deficit of 20-25 mill. tonnes of CO₂ equivalents annually in 2008-2012, calculated on the basis of the projection which was presented together with the government's proposal for a Climate Strategy for Denmark in February 2003 to show the expected development without implementation of additional measures, there is a reduction of approx. 12 mill. tonnes of CO₂ equivalents annually in 2008-2012.

With the choice of method, the deficit expresses the need to purchase allowances from abroad or to implement new measures outside the sectors subject to allowances. So, as a result of the introduction of the CO₂ allowance scheme, the deficit is in principle not directly comparable to the deficit in the government's Climate Strategy, since the cost effects of the allowances are included, whereas ultimately the allocation of allowances decides the climatic effects of the scheme.

Note that the projection, and therefore also the deficit, is based on model predictions, which are subject to uncertainty. This applies, not least, to expected developments in energy prices, prices of CO₂ allowances, and the developments in the Nordic electricity market, which have a direct influence on the size of exports of electricity. This is illustrated in more detail through sensitivity analyses, cf. section 5.2.4. The implementation of the EU allowance scheme has, however, created a basis for greater certainty regarding the fulfilment of Denmark's climate commitments under the Kyoto Protocol and the EU Burden Sharing Agreement.

The “with measures” projection presented in this report is the most recent projection. It was finalised in May 2005 and it is in general based on expected effects of policies and measures implemented or adopted until the end of 2004. Due to the adoption of additional energy-savings initiatives in 2005, up-dated projections in the off-shore sector and new IEA projections of energy prices, an update of the May 2005 “with measures” projection has been initiated. However, results from this update will not be available until the beginning of 2006. Preliminary results suggests that the action plan on additional energy-savings initiatives could lead to a 2 mill. tonnes further reduction in annual CO₂ emissions 2008-2012.

TABLE 5.1 DENMARK'S EXPECTED GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND THE EXPECTED DEFICIT COMPARED TO THE EU BURDEN SHARING OF THE EU REDUCTION TARGET UNDER THE KYOTO PROTOCOL

Source: 1990-2003: The National Inventory Report (NIR), the National Environmental Research Institute (NERI), April 2005.
2004-2030: Projection of greenhouse gas emissions, Memorandum to the Danish EPA, NERI, May 2005.

1 Base year for CO₂, methane, and nitrous oxide is 1990. In accordance with the Kyoto Protocol, 1995 is chosen as the base year for industrial gases.

2 “2010” stands for mean emissions in 2008-2012.

3 “2015” stands for mean emissions in 2013-2017

4 Here net emission of CO₂ inventoried under the Kyoto Protocol, because removal of CO₂ in new forests planted since 1990 is included cf. Protocol article 3.3.

5 The deficit has been calculated both on the basis of the assumption of taking imports of electricity in 1990 into account, cf. the political statement of the Council and the Commission and on the basis of Denmark's legal commitment under the EU Burden Sharing Agreement.

5.2 ENERGY INCLUDING ALL ACTIVITIES WITH FUEL COMBUTION WITHIN TRANSPORT, MILITARY, BUSINESS, AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, FISHERIES AND THE DOMESTIC SECTOR

In this section the projection of the total emissions of CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O from combustion of fuels and from fugetive emissions from fuels is described. The projection includes all fuel-consuming sectors, which in addition to the energy sector, include the transport sector and military, business, agriculture, forestry and fisheries, as well as the domestic sector – both stationary and mobile sources. A more detailed description of the approach used in the energy projection is in Annex E.

5.2.1 Methods

The projection is based on a projection of the development in energy consumption in the period 2004-2030. The emissions of CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O have been calculated by multiplying the energy consumption by emission factors.

The projection of end-user energy consumption by the business and domestic sectors is based on an ADAM/EMMA projection. EMMA is a macro model that describes the final energy consumption broken down into a number of sectors and seven types of energy. It is based on historical experience with the behaviour of businesses and households and is documented in NERI 1995¹.

In EMMA, energy consumption in the business sector is determined by three factors: production, energy prices/taxes and energy efficiencies/ trends. Increased production will increase the demand for energy input, whereas increased energy prices and taxes will pull in the direction of a more limited demand for the fuels. Improved energy efficiency will mean that production can be maintained using less energy, and in EMMA this results in reduced energy consumption.

The projection of production by businesses is based on the ADAM projection in the Finansredegørelse 2004 (Economic Report 2004), covering the period 2004-2010. For the period 2011-2030 unofficial estimates from the same source have been used.

The projection of electricity and heat production is based on the Danish Energy Authority's RAMSES model, using as the basis the demand for electricity and district heat according to the projection of the consumption sectors. In the projection, electricity and heat production is divided between existing and possible new production plants on the basis of technical specifications and prices of fuels and CO₂ allowances. The model also determines electricity prices on the Nordic market and the degree of electricity exchange with the other Nordic countries. In this regard it takes account of the limitations in exchange capacity. Electricity production has been liberalised throughout the Nordic region and therefore it is not closely linked to Danish demand, but rather to the characteristics of the individual power plant and market prices. Industrial and local mini-CHP production is not projected in the RAMSES model so a separate (bottom-up) projection has been made of this production.

The projection of other sectors (primarily extraction of oil and gas as well as oil refineries) is based on data on expansion plans and ad-hoc assumptions.

The projection of road transport, rail transport, domestic ferries and freighters, together with domestic air transport is documented in the report The transport sector's energy consumption and emissions, Danish Road Directorate, 2002². As this projection is some years old, it is based on older economic assumptions than the EMMA projections described above.

5.2.2 Assumptions and key parameters

In general, the projection is based on the policies applicable at the end of 2004 and unchanged behaviour patterns. The projection is based on energy consumption in 2003. The basic assumption is that energy consumption in the future will equal the 2003 level, unless there is a drop in economic activity, and/or prices, technical improvements, initiatives, climate, etc. change. Therefore, only initiatives where the effect will change in relation to 2003 (including new initiatives) are included spe-cifically in calculating the projection. Therefore, the projection should be regarded as a ”with measures” projection.

The IEA price assumptions for fossil fuels (World Energy Outlook, 2004³) and a euro-dollar rate of 0.8 have been applied. However, the IEA assumptions have been moderated so that the rather low price levels for 2006-2010 are not reached before 2009. With regard to large producers of heat and electricity, however, it is assumed that liberalisation of the gas market will reduce the price of gas slightly compared with the IEA assumptions. Prices of biomass are assumed to remain constant in real terms. District-heating prices are based on production costs, while the price of electricity, as mentioned above, results from calculations and is based on marginal production costs.

TABLE 5.2 GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS¹

Source: Danish Energy Authority

Other assumptions behind the energy projection are economic growth of about 1.8% p.a. – greatest up to 2010, moderate prices of fossil fuels based on the IEA assumptions, prices of CO₂ allowances of about USD 8 per tonne 2005-7, about USD 16 per tonne 2008-2012 and about USD 24 per tonne thereafter, as well as technical energy efficiencies of about 0.7% p.a. at end users.

FIGURE 5.2 GROSS ENERGY CONSUMPTION 1990-2030, 1990-2003 ARE OBSERVED

Source: Danish Energy Authority

Efforts have been made to coordinate assumptions for the electricity market with the other Nordic countries. Planned investment in production and transmission capacity as well as closing plants is largely agreed with Norway, Sweden and Finland. The differences between the models and the date of completion of the projections means, however, that the resulting electricity prices and figures for electricity exchange are not the same.

Tables 5.2 and 5.3 illustrate a number of key assumptions for the projection.

5.2.3 Results

Figure 5.2 and Table 5.4 show the development of total energy consumption (excl. fuels for non-energy purposes) with these assumptions, broken down by sector.

TABLE 5.3 CHANGES IN ENERGY PRICES IN DKK EXCL. TAXES, DEFLATED

Source: Danish Energy Authority

In years with ample precipitation Denmark is a net importer of electricity produced at Norwegian and Swedish hydropower stations, while in years with scanty precipitation, it is a net exporter of electricity to Norway and Sweden. This has resulted in large fluctuations in the observed Danish gross energy consumption in the period 1990-2003.

Energy consumption is expected to grow within most business sectors and transport in the next 25 years, but to fall slightly in the domestic sector and the commerce and service sector. The energy sector's consumption has been calculated excluding fuels for production of electricity for export because this consumption figures separately, but the calculation includes flaring. Domestic electricity consumption is expected to grow, which is also reflected in the gross energy consumption in the energy sector up to 2015. Thereafter, the sector's energy consumption will fall slightly because a number of primary coal-fired stations are expected to be replaced by new, more efficient gas-fired CHP plants.

Exports of electricity are estimated at less that in the Third National Communication, partly because the EU allowance scheme (EU ETS) has been established since then, and partly because a large Finnish nuclear power station is expected to come on line in 2010. The allowance scheme impairs the competitiveness of Danish fossil-fuel-based plants compared with hydro and nuclear plants in neighbouring countries.

TABLE 5.4 GROSS ENERGY CONSUMPTION 1990-2030, 1990-2003 ARE OBSERVED

Source: Danish Energy Authority

The reason for exports of electricity up to 2010 is the current Danish excess capacity combined with increasing electricity prices on the Nordic market. In the longer term electricity exports will be due to the relative advantages of locating new plants in Denmark because of the large basis for sales of heating. Revenues from sales of district heating improve the profitability of CPH plants.

Figure 5.3 shows the development of total energy consumption, broken down by fuels, which determine the size of CO₂ emissions because the fuels have very different emission factors.

FIGURE 5.3 GROSS ENERGY CONSUMPTION 1990-2003 ARE OBSERVED

Source: Danish Energy Authority

The increase in the quantity of renewable energy up to the year 2005 is due primarily to expansion of wind turbines and increased use of biomass. After 2015 many new offshore wind farms are expected to be erected, and this, together with use of waste, wood and straw, will increase renewable-energy-based production. An increase in consumption of oil is primarily due to the growth in transport. With the new power stations, natural gas consumption will increase from 2015 at the expense of coal consumption. This change means a reduction in CO₂ emissions because natural gas has far lower emission factors than coal.

The fuel composition of electricity production in 2030 will be more based on natural gas and renewable energy and less on coal than is the case today. It is expected that 43% of electricity production will be based on natural gas, 27% on wind, 15% on coal, 9% on waste, 4% on biomass, and 2% on oil. Thus up to 39% of Danish electricity production will be based on renewable energy in 2030.

The resulting total emissions of CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O from energyconsuming activities in the “with measures” projection is illustrated in Table 5.5. Annex E contains detailed Tables showing the results of the projections.

TABLE 5.5 TOTAL EMISSIONS OF CO₂, CH₄ AND N₂O IN CO₂ EQUIVALENTS FROM ENERGY-CONSUMING ACTIVITIES IN THE PROJECTION (WITH MEASURES), 1990-2003 ARE OBSERVED

Source: 1990-2003: The National Inventory Report (NIR), the National Environmental Research Institute (NERI), April 2005.
2004-2030: Projection of greenhouse gas emissions, Memorandum to the Danish EPA, NERI, May 2005.

1 ”2010” means average annual emissions from 2008-2012

2 ”2015” means average annual emissions from 2013-2017

5.2.4 Sensitivity analyses and scenario calculations

The projection and underlying assumptions are naturally very uncertain. Therefore, sensitivity analyses have been completed with alternative assumptions for fuel prices and prices of CO₂ allowances cf. Table 5.6.

High prices for oil, gas, coal and CO₂ allowances are expected to reduce gross energy consumption in 2030 by about 50 PJ or 5% compared with the projection above, while low prices increase consumption by about 30 PJ or 3%, cf. Figure 5.4.

As can be seen, the changes in total energy consumption are expected to be moderate, but they conceal large fluctuations in the composition of fuels in the supply sector. With the high prices of natural gas, oil and CO₂ allowances, expansion will be exclusively with renewable energy

– wind and biomass, while with low prices of CO₂ allowances, higher prices of natural gas and moderately higher coal prices, new coal-fired plants will be built.

The effects on CO₂ emissions from the reorganisation of fuels in the supply sector: a reduction of 23% in the case of high prices, and an increase of 7% for low prices in 2030, cf. Figure 5.4. The effects are considerably less in 2010. Here, CO₂ emissions are 4.5 mill. tonnes under basis with higher prices, but only 0.3 mill. tonnes over with low prices.

TABLE 5.6 ASSUMPTIONS OF FUEL PRICES AND PRICES OF CO₂ ALLOWANCES IN 2030

Source: Danish Energy Authority

1 IEA assumptions from WEO 2004

FIGURE 5.4 TOTAL GROSS ENERGY CONSUMPTION, IN PJ.

Source: Danish Energy Authority

5.3 TRANSPORT

As mentioned in section 5.2, the latest projection of road transport, rail transport, domestic ferries and freighters, together with domestic air transport is documented in the report The transport sector's energy consumption and emissions, Danish Road Directorate, 2002. Projected energy consumption is based on a projection of traffic intensity, which is described in more detail in this section.

FIGURE 5.5 ENERGY-RELATED CO₂ EMISSIONS, IN '000 TONNES CO₂ EQUIVALENTS.

Source: Danish Energy Authority

5.3.1 Methods

The completed projection is based on the estimate of the total emissions from the national traffic intensity carried out in Denmark, i.e. traffic intensity with Danish vehicles in Denmark. Projections have been made for both developments in traffic and changes in specific energy and emissions factors.

In principle, all-else-being-equal projections of developments in traffic, energy consumption and emissions have been made. Thus, the projection has been made to include only emission standards and measures already adopted, or implementation of these, so that it is a “with measures” projection.

The changes in the explanatory economic variables for the period up to 2010 are based on the Ministry of Finance economic outlook from January 2002. From 2010, economic development is based on the most recent long-term economic projections from the Ministry of Finance in Finansredegørelse 2001 (Economic report 2001). It should be noted that the even changes in the projections reflect the evened-out changes in the economic projections. In other words a projection of this type does not capture the exact level for the individual year, but rather it shows the expected trends over future years.

Passenger cars

The projection of passenger-car traffic is composed of two elements. A projection of the number of passenger cars, as well as assumptions regarding developments in the average number of kilometres driven each year. Traffic intensity for motorcycles is assumed to follow that for passenger cars.

The projection of the number of cars is based on a sub-model for new registrations and a sub-model for survival of each year of new registrations.

The historical development in number of kilometres driven per year is calculated by dividing total traffic intensity for a given year with the number of cars for the same year. This is then repeated for the expected future developments cf. the assumptions described in the next section.

Buses

The lack of sufficient insight into the determining factors for developments in bus transport makes it difficult to establish models for the projection of bus traffic.

Vans and lorries (2-6 tonnes)

The method here is to allow developments to follow economic growth, either directly proportionally or using an elasticity that deviates from 1.

Lorries (over 6 tonnes)

This projection is based on analyses of the relationship between the economic cycle and national transport of goods by road in the period from 1980 to 2001.

The development in transport of goods by road is based on a study by Statistics Denmark of tachographs, which, on the basis of a sample of lorries transporting goods nationally, provides a detailed picture of the developments in goods transport and its composition.

In contrast to previous analyses, the developments in goods transport related to overall economic growth in society (e.g. expressed as the change in GDP), is now based on analyses of the relationship between goods transport and production in goods-producing sectors, divided into five main sectors.

Emissions

For this projection of energy consumption and emissions from the road sector, a revised projection has been made of average specific emission factors of CO, VOC, NO_x and particles for vehicles from the road sector. The specific emission factors have been calculated by NERI and are based on traffic projections from the Road Directorate and emissions data from the most recent edition of the COPERT model.

5.3.2 Assumptions and key parameters

Passenger cars

With regard to new registrations, a total of about 150,000 per year is expected for the whole period 2001-2010. The composition of the cars on the road in 2001 has been retained in the projection, under the assumption that the age of cars will not change significantly compared with today, where the median lifetime is just less than 17 years. The projection assumes that the current levelling-off of the number of km driven per year will continue in the period 2001 to 2010. Therefore, an increase of 2% up to 2010 has been used.

Buses

Due to a lack of alternative methods, it has been assumed that the present level of bus traffic will continue throughout the period 2001 - 2010.

Vans and lorries (2-6 tonnes)

Goods transport intensity has been projected in parallel with developments in GDP from 2001 to 2005. In the subsequent period from 2005, an elasticity to GDP has been assumed of 0.75. The load factor has been assumed to remain at the 2001 level throughout the projection period.

Lorries (over 6 tonnes)

In order to project traffic intensity for lorries of more than 6 tonnes, it has been assumed that the relationship between kilometres driven with and without a load remains the same as in 2000. In 2000, the number of kilometres driven without load was 19% of the kilometres driven with load.

Moreover, as previously, it has been assumed that capacity exploitation of vehicles with load increases from 50% to 55%, corresponding to a 10% improvement. It has been assumed that the improvement in capacity occurs over a 20-year period, i.e. up to 2020.

Energy efficiency

In this projection, primarily the total energy consumption by the transport sector has been adjusted compared with the energy statements by the Energy Authority for the years 1988 and 2001. Thus, there is numeric consistency in the statement of developments in energy consumption in the period 1988 to 2002.

The projection also includes the expected effect of the agreement between the EU and the auto industry on the energy efficiency of cars. According to the agreement, the average CO₂ emissions from newly registered passenger cars in 2008 should be no more than 140 g per km. Steady introduction of passenger cars with emissions of this level are expected, with full implementation in 2008. In this period, it is expected that the proportion of newly registered cars with 140 g CO₂ emissions per km will increase on a straight-line basis from 0% in 2000 to 100% in 2008.

5.3.3 Results

Table 5.7 shows the main results of the overall projection of emissions of CO₂ and others from road traffic for the period 1988 to 2010.

The result of the total projection of emissions of greenhouse gases by the transport sector up to 2030 is described in Table 5.8. As with the historical emissions inventories, the national totals for projected emissions of greenhouse gases do not include emissions from international air transport and international marine transport.

5.3.4 Sensitivity analyses and scenario calculations

The projection cannot be better than the material on which it is based. It is no surprise that there is great uncertainty linked to the economic data, in particular in the more distant future. Similarly, on a number of occasions it has been demonstrated that tachograph data is also uncertain.

For the above reasons it is important to stress that the projection should only be used a descriptive tool for developments from one period to another. The uncertainty of the values for the individual years may be great, and interpreting the level for the specific year may be incorrect.

However, independent analyses and scenario calculations have not been prepared for the transport projection. In the sensitivity analyses prepared in connection with the energy projections, energy consumption and emissions by the transport sector are also influenced, however, when the price of fuel changes.

5.4 INDUSTRY

In addition to the emissions of greenhouse gases connected to energy consumption by industry discussed in section 5.2, greenhouse gases are also emitted from a number of industrial processes. These include emissions from the production of cement, chalk, tiles, glass etc., as well as emissions of the fluorine-containing industrial gases HFCs, PFCs and SF₆ (F gases) from the production and use of products containing these substances, such as refrigerants, foaming agents, and as insulation gases.

5.4.1 Methods

For process emissions, there is often proportionality between production and emissions, if there are no significant changes in the technology used in production or any measures to limit emissions. However, it is often not possible to obtain information from enterprises on the expected future production, partly for commercial reasons and partly because market and production conditions are unpredictable.

TABLE 5.7 MAIN RESULTS OF PERFORMANCE AND EMISSIONS OF CO₂ FROM ROAD TRANSPORT FOR THE PERIOD 1988 TO 2010

Source: Transport sector energy consumption and emissions, Road Directorate, 2002.

TABLE 5.8 TOTAL PROJECTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY THE TRANSPORT SECTOR 2005-2030 AND THE EMISSION INVENTORIES FOR 1990 AND 2000

Source: 1990-2003: The National Inventory Report (NIR), the National Environmental Research Institute (NERI), April 2005. 2004-2030: Projection of greenhouse gas emissions, Memorandum to the Danish EPA, NERI, May 2005.

F gases, however, are exceptional because they are contained in the product itself, e.g. as a refrigerant or insulator gas, and they are slowly released into the atmosphere over a number of years. In this regard, emission rates etc. in the IPCC guidelines for emissions inventories have also been used in the projections.

5.4.2 Assumptions and key parameters

The projection of the emissions is based on implemented and adopted policies and measures, described in Chapter 4, including a statutory order on phasing out certain industrial gases. This statutory order will result in a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of, on average, 0.4

0.7 mill. tonnes CO₂ equivalents per year in the period 2008-2012. It is covered by a ban on the use of HFC as a coolant in the retail trade and stationary A/C systems from 1 January 2007, except for refilling of existing systems, and as a foaming agent in PUR foam from 1 January 2006.

With regard to process emissions, unchanged market and production conditions have been assumed consistently. The only deviations are, that from 2004 production of nitric acid ceased in Denmark; that in the period 2002-2007 an increase of 5% in the production of clinker for cement production is assumed; and that emissions of process CO₂ from steel production from 2005 are assumed to be at the 2001 level as from early 2005 production will resume after a period of zero production from 2002-2004.

5.4.3 Results

Results of projections of F gases and process emissions appear in Tables 5.9 and 5.10.

5.4.4 Sensitivity analyses and scenario calculations

There are no sensitivity analyses and scenario calculations emissions of greenhouse gases from the business sector. On the basis of the effects described above, for example, it can be ascertained that the resumption of production of nitric acid in Denmark – with the same technology as prior to the cessation in 2004, which in practice will probably not be the case – will increase annual emissions in 2008-2012 by about 1 mill. tonnes CO₂ equivalents. In other contexts it has also been assessed that any relaxation of Danish regulation regarding F gases to align with EU regulation will increase Danish emissions of F gases by 0.4 – 0.7 mill. tonnes CO₂ equivalents per year in 2008-2012.

5.5 AGRICULTURE

In 2003, agriculture accounted for approximately 19% of Denmark's total emissions of greenhouse gases. The gases emitted by agriculture are mainly methane and nitrous oxide. The methane and nitrous oxide emissions are not taxed and are only regulated indirectly via the regulation of the effect on the aquatic environment of nitrogen losses from agriculture, e.g. in the Action Plans for the Aquatic Environment II and III, general structural developments, and the common CAP reform. Amongst other things, the effect of Action Plan for the Aquatic Environment III, adopted in 2004 on its own will lead to an extra reduction of 0.21 mill. tonnes CO₂ equivalents, which are now included in the new projection with measures. Further possibilities for reduction of the methane and nitrous oxide emissions in the agricultural sector are being examined in connection with the Policies and Measures Project, where both the technical possibilities for reduction and the costs will be illustrated.

TABLE 5.9 EMISSIONS OF INDUSTRIAL GREENHOUSE GASES (HFCS, PFCS AND SF₆), 1990-2003 ARE OBSERVED.

Source: 1990-2003: The National Inventory Report (NIR), the National Environmental Research Institute (NERI), April 2005. 2004-2030: Projection of greenhouse gas emissions, Memorandum to the Danish EPA, NERI, May 2005 and Environmental Project No. 987, Danish EPA, March 2005⁴

TABLE 5.10 PROJECTION OF PROCESS EMISSIONS FROM CEMENT, CHALK AND TILE PRODUCTION AS WELL AS CHEMICAL PRODUCTION AND METAL PRODUCTION, 1990 AND 2000 ARE OBSERVED

Source: 1990-2003: The National Inventory Report (NIR), the National Environmental Research Institute (NERI), April 2005. 2004-2030: Projection of greenhouse gas emissions, Memorandum to the Danish EPA, NERI, May 2005.

5.5.1 Methods

With regard to methods, overall the projections apply the same approach, emissions factors and types of key parameter and assumptions as the inventories of the historical emissions of methane and nitrous oxide from agriculture so that the time series are as consistent as possible for the period 1990-2030.

5.5.2 Assumptions and key parameters

The basis for the projection is the final calculated and reported emissions for 2003. In addition, the projection with measures (the baseline scenario) takes account of the expected establishment of certain emissions-reducing technologies, but only technologies aiming at reductions of ammonia evaporation and increased biogas treatment of slurry.

5.5.3 Results

As will be seen from Table 5.11, emissions of methane and nitrous oxide from agriculture are expected to be reduced by 12% from 9.90 mill. tonnes CO₂ equivalents in 2003 to 8.69 mill. tonnes CO₂ equivalents in 2025 (and 2030). This projection with existing measures (baseline scenario) takes account of the EU agricultural reform, Action Plan for the Aquatic Environment III, and establishment of ammonia-reducing initiatives in stalls as well as increased biogas production. Emissions of methane are expected to be reduced by a drop in cattle stocks. The reduction in nitrous oxide emissions is primarily due to a drop in emissions from N run-off, commercial fertiliser, and from manure spread on fields. This is due to better exploitation of feed and better exploitation of the nitrogen content in manure, as well as a drop in the cropland area.

TABLE 5.11 EXPECTED EMISSIONS OF METHANE AND NITROUS OXIDE FROM THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR 2004-2030, 1990-2003 ARE OBSERVED

Source: 1990-2003: The National Inventory Report (NIR), the National Environmental Research Institute (NERI), April 2005 2004-2030: Projection of greenhouse gas emissions, Memorandum to the Danish EPA, NERI, May 2005.

Click here to see Table 5.11

5.5.4 Sensitivity analyses and scenario calculations

Prior to the preparation of the above new projection for agriculture, NERI published a report in 2004, which through the following five scenarios illustrated the consequences of agricultural emissions of methane and nitrous oxide:

1.   Baseline scenario - based on agricultural conditions in 2002

2.   Implementation of the EU CAP ndash; Common Agricultural Policy

3.   Implementation of CAP + constant pig production at the 2003 level

4a. Implementation of CAP + 25% reduction in N run-off

4b. As 4a + specific initiatives for extra afforestation.

The results of these five scenarios appear in Table 5.12. As can be seen, there is only a small difference between the new baseline projection and the second scenario with the CAP reform in 2008-12. The scenario where pig production is kept at the 2003 level gives slightly lower emissions. A further 25% reduction of nitrogen run-off would lead to a further reduction of about

0.5 mill. tonnes CO₂ equivalents per year in both 2008-12 and 2013-17. Increased conversion of agricultural area to forest would give a further reduction of 0.4 mill. tonnes CO₂ equivalents per year in 2013-17, whereas extra CO₂ removals in 2008-12 only amount to one-quarter of this.

5.6 FORESTRY

Removals of CO₂ in Danish forests distinguish between removals in the permanent forest existing as at 1 January 1990, and removals in new forest established since 1990. As only the latter can immediately be used in relation to Denmark's reduction commitment under the Kyoto Protocol and EU burden sharing cf. Article 3.3 of the Protocol, this section concentrates on this part of CO₂ removals.

5.6.1 Methods

The methods applied for the projections of afforestation have overall used the same approach, removals factors and types of key parameters and assumptions as the inventories of historical removals in connection with afforestation for 1990-2003. Thus the time series is as consistent as possible for the period 19902030.

5.6.2 Assumptions and key parameters

The projections for CO₂ sequestration in forests are based on an assumption that for a period of six to eight years there will be fewer resources for planting new forests than previously, while implementation of international obligations in the nature area are carried out (Natura 2000).

TABLE 5.12 EXPECTED EMISSIONS OF METHANE AND NITROUS OXIDE FROM AGRICULTURE 2003 – 2017

Source: Projections of greenhouse gas emissions, Memorandum to the Danish EPA, NERI, May 2005 and Projection of Greenhouse Gas Emission from the Agricultural Sector until 2017, NERI, 2004

Amongst the other assumptions in the calculation of removals in forest planted since 1990 using the so-called afforestation model are:

1990-1999:

Inventory of Forests 2000 (Skovtælling 2000) has been used to calculate the extent of private afforestation without subsidies. All NORWEGIAN PINE areas have been deducted as it has been assumed that these are operated for Christmas trees and will continue in the future. The model uses NORWAY SPRUCE as a conifer, and therefore growth is greatly over-estimated. Christmas trees will always have a low level of biomass. The average species selected for private afforestation are 55% deciduous and 45% conifer according to the evaluation report from the Forest and Nature Agency. Inventory of Forests 2000 shows the privately owned forests have a distribution of 38% deciduous and 62% conifer. This report uses the Inventory of Forests 2000 distribution, while the evaluation report is only used for areas receiving subsidies in order to determine tree species. The growth in area of private forests without subsidies is assumed constant throughout the period. The Figure is calculated on the basis of knowledge on public afforestation and subsidised afforestation. The original figures from the evaluation are calculated with 1,100 ha covered by two-thirds conifer. This has been adjusted in the calculations.

2000 and 2001

Inventory of Forests 2000 has been used to calculate the size of private afforestation without subsidies. Figures from enterprise financial statements have been used for the others. It has been assumed that 150 ha new public forest is planted each year.

2002 and 2003:

The Action Plan for the Aquatic Environment II assumes afforestation of 20,000 ha over 6 years, corresponding to 3,333 ha per year. As in the period 1998-2001 a total of 10,346 ha was planted, this is unrealistic. Therefore the old figures have been used, corrected for low planting without subsidies.

2004-2030:

The approximate average annual af-forestation for 1990-2003 of 1,900 ha per year has been projected as constant in the period 2004-2014. From 2015 it has been assumed that part of the private afforestation with subsidies – corresponding to about 900 ha per year – will stop, so afforestation in the period 2015-2030 is about 1,071 ha per year.

5.6.3 Results

Table 5.13 shows the expected rate of afforestation in selected years up to 2030. The rate of private afforestation will depend on the economic conditions in the agricultural sector, and, as the marginal agricultural localities are planted over time, a saturation point may be reached where the existing subsidies no longer provide an incentive for further afforestation.

TABLE 5.13 PROJECTED AREA OF AFFORESTATION AND CO₂ BINDING 2005 – 2030

Source: Forest and Landscape Denmark, March 2005.

5.6.4 Sensitivity analyses and scenario calculations

Full sensitivity analyses have not been carried out, but if incentives are increased and if the rate of afforestation is doubled from about 2000 ha per year in 2005 to about 4000 ha per year (as in 1999), sequestration after 10-20 years will also double. However, at the moment it will hardly be realistic to increase removals significantly through afforestation as early as 2008-12.

5.7 WASTE

Greenhouse gas emissions under this sector include methane (CH₄) from landfills and methane and nitrous oxide (N₂O) from wastewater treatment.

5.7.1 Methods

Landfills

CH₄ emissions from landfills are calculated using an emissions model in which activity data are annual data for the amount of waste landfilled and in which the emissions factors, i.e. the amount of CH₄ emitted per quantity of waste deposited, are obtained from the assumptions in the model for the decay of waste and the release of CH₄.

The model has been developed and applied in the annual historical emissions inventories for the Climate Convention. As a result the model has been developed in accordance with the guidelines in the IPCC Guidelines (1996) and the IPCC Good Practice Guidance (2001). On the recommendation of these reports, the model follows the Tier 2 method, which is a decomposition method. The model is described in the reports connected to the Climate Convention, most recently NIR2005. Briefly, the model assumes that carbon in landfilled waste decays and is converted to CH₄. This process is assumed by the model to continue so that 10 years after landfilling one-half of the carbon has been converted to CH₄. The model and the results have been evaluated through the Climate Convention in connection with the annual emissions inventories. The result of this evaluation has been that the model should continue to be used, unchanged, in the estimation inventories.

For the projection of emissions, the same CH₄ emissions model has been used as that used in the calculation of the historical emissions. The decay model for emissions of CH₄ implies that fluctuations over the time series for the landfilled waste amount are much less.

Recovery of CH₄ by landfill gas plants has been deducted from the calculated CH₄ emissions cf. Table 5.14. Energy statistics have been used for the historical data. For the projection of this deduction for gas recovered, the Energy Authority's general projection only includes a projection of landfill gas, and in this connection this is not considered useful. In an assignment for the Danish EPA (Danish EPA, 2005) LFG-consult (H. C. Willumsen) reviewed Danish landfills and prepared scenarios for recovery of CH₄ for the years 2005-2009. The result of the projection is shown in Table 5.14. For this projection a scenario (Danish EPA, 2005) without optimisation of the landfill gas plants has been used. The period 2010-2030 in the projection is calculated using exponential extrapolation.

Wastewater

Calculations of emissions of methane from wastewater handling are based on theoretical maximum emissions, called gross emissions of methane. These gross emissions are based on emissions from the entire methane potential in the amount of organic degradable material in the input wastewater at the treatment plants. The methane potential used as biogas or which is incinerated is deducted from this theoretical maximum. The resulting net methane emissions are an estimate of the actual emissions of methane during wastewater treatment at treatment plants. Key parameters are industrial contributions to wastewater input to treatment plants and the fraction of wastewater sludge treated aerobically.

Calculations of emissions of nitrous oxide are divided into a contribution from wastewater-treatment processes at treatment plants, called direct emissions, and a contribution from output wastewater, called indirect N₂O emissions.

Any methane emissions from wastewater handling in specific industries are not included in the calculations.

5.7.2 Assumptions and key parameters

Landfills

Amounts of waste are collated by the Danish EPA in the information system for waste and recycling (ISAG). The ISAG was first used in 1993. The ISAG is based on statutory registration and reporting from Danish waste-treatment plants for all waste entering or leaving the plants. Information concerning waste in the previous year must be reported to the Danish EPA each year, no later than 31 January. The reports for 2003 are the 11th in the series. The results are published as annual waste statistics, most recently for 2003 in Waste Statistics 2003 Environmental Review no. 14, 2004. These annual statistics include landfilled waste.

The projection with measures is based on the government Waste Strategy 2005-2008, in which de-coupling of growth in waste amounts from growth in the economy is a fundamental element. The Waste Strategy includes targets for landfilling waste for 2008. In terms of sectors, the Strategy distribution (%) of landfilled waste for 2001 and the targets for 2008 in relation to the total waste amount is in Table 5.15.

Wastewater

The calculations of direct emissions and projections are based on population figures as well as a calculation procedure for emissions factors adjusted for the N contribution from industry in input wastewater.

In general the industrial contribution is assumed to be constant from 1999 and after. The emissions contribution from industry has been set at 41.9% (average contribution for 1999-2002) for both the projections. Nitrous oxide production takes place under anaerobic and aerobic conditions (nitrification and denitrification), but formation is primarily under aerobic conditions. Nitrous oxide emissions are expected to remain at a constant level due to fully optimised cleaning rate of wastewater before discharge.

TABLE 5.14 METHANE EMISSIONS FROM LANDFILLS FOR THE PERIOD 1990 TO 2030, 1990-2003 ARE OBSERVED.

Source: 1990-2003: The National Inventory Report (NIR), the National Environmental Research Institute (NERI), April 2005. 2004-2030: Projection of greenhouse gas emissions, Memorandum to the Danish EPA, NERI, May 2005.

5.7.3 Results

Landfills

The overall projection of methane (CH₄) from landfills is described in Table 5.16.

Wastewater

The projection of total methane and nitrous gas emissions from wastewater handling in CO₂ equivalents is in Table 5.17.

5.7.4 Sensitivity analyses and scenario calculations

Full sensitivity analyses have not been completed, but the potential and financial aspects in possibly developing collection of methane from landfills for energy purposes will be examined in connection with The Policies and Measures Project mentioned in section 4.1.3.

5.8 TOTAL EMISSIONS OF GREENHOUSE GASES IN THE PROJECTION WITH MEASURES

5.8.1 Carbon dioxide, CO₂

Table 5.18 shows the expected development in CO₂ emissions. A more detailed projection is in annex E. The biggest source of CO₂ emissions in Denmark is combustion of fossil fuels, including electricity and heat production and transport.

The transport sector has had the biggest increase in CO₂ emissions since 1990, and the emissions are expected to continue rising for the whole of the projection period. CO₂ emissions from the transport sector were 10,441 Gg of CO₂ in 1990 and had risen to 12,785 Gg of CO₂ in 2003, whereas the projection for 2008-2012 is 13,890 Gg of CO₂ annually. Emissions from energy production, including conversion and distribution have varied in 1990-2003 due to great variations in exports/imports of energy. Emissions from the production of electricity were 26,173 Gg of CO₂ in 1990 and 31,402 Gg of CO₂ in 2003, whereas the projection for 2008-2012 is 29,021 Gg of CO₂ annually, of which 4,400 Gg of CO₂ are due to electricity exports.

The total CO₂ emissions with out land-use change and forestry (LUCF) was 52,887 Gg in 1990 and 59,329 Gg in 2003, while for the period 2008-2012 it has been calculated that the average annual CO₂ emissions will be 59,233 Gg CO₂.

TABLE 5.14 METHANE EMISSIONS FROM LANDFILLS FOR THE PERIOD 1990 TO 2030, 1990-2003 ARE OBSERVED.

Source: Projections of greenhouse gas emissions, Memorandum to the Danish EPA, NERI, May 2005 and the government's Waste Strategy 2005-2008

5.8.2 Methane (CH₄)

Most of the methane emissions come from farm animals' digestive systems (enteric fermentation). The projections are shown in Table 5.19. The reduction in emissions from agriculture from 1990 to 2001 and the continued reductions in the projection period are primarily due to reductions in cattle stocks. The next largest source of methane is landfills, from which emissions were also reduced from 1990 to 2001. Methane emissions from the energy sector have, however, increased considerably during the same period, due to an increase in the use of gas-driven motors. This has altogether led to an increase in total methane emissions from 5,684 Gg of CO₂ equivalents in 1990 to 5,873 Gg of CO₂ equivalents in 2003, whereas the projection for 2008-2012 is lower, i.e. 5,573 Gg of CO₂ equivalents annually.

5.8.3 Nitrous oxide, N₂O

Agriculture is by far the main source of emissions of nitrous oxide because this forms in soil through bacterial conversion of nitrogen in fertiliser and manure. The projections are shown in Table 5.20. The main reason for the reduction in total nitrous oxide emissions from 10,713 Gg CO₂ equivalents in 1990 to 8,060 Gg CO₂ equivalents in 2003 is a combination of the Action Plans for the Aquatic Environment I and II and the Action Plan for Sustainable Agriculture. The projection for 2008-12 is 6,942 Gg CO₂ equivalents annually. This substantial reduction is not least due to the fact that Denmark ceased to produce nitrous acid in 2004, as shown under industrial processes in Table 5.20. Contributions from the transport and energy sectors are expected to increase, whereas contributions from agriculture are expected to be somewhat less than in 2001.

TABLE 5.16. EMISSIONS OF CH₄ FROM LANDFILLS IN CO₂ EQUIVALENTS (1000 TONNES =GG) OBSERVED: 1993-2003. PROJECTED: 2004-2020

Source: Projections of greenhouse gas emissions, Memorandum to the Danish EPA, NERI, May 2005.

TABLE 5.17 SUM OF EMISSIONS OF CH₄ AND N₂O FROM WASTEWATER IN CO₂ EQUIVALENTS (1000 TONNES =GG)

Source: Projections of greenhouse gas emissions, Memorandum to the Danish EPA, NERI, May 2005

5.8.4 Industrial gases HFCs, PFCs and SF₆

In accordance with the possibilities offered in the Kyoto Protocol, Denmark has chosen 1995 as the base year for emissions of the industrial gases HFCs, PFCs and SF₆. Total emissions of these gases corresponded to 326 Gg CO₂ equivalents in 1995 and annual emissions have more than doubled since the year 2000. The rate of increase has decreased since 2003, when emissions corresponded to 746 Gg CO₂ equivalents.

The decrease in the rate of increase is primarily due to taxes and regulations introduced concerning the use of new installations/products. For the period 2008-12 total emissions of industrial gases corresponding to 768 Gg CO₂ equivalents annually are projected, after which a major reduction in emissions of HFCs, the major contributors, is expected and will result in a considerable reduction in emissions of industrial gases following the first period of commitment.

5.8.5 Denmark's total greenhouse gas emissions and removals

Table 5.22 shows the base year and projections of Denmark's total greenhouse gas emissions and removals.

5.9 PROJECTIONS WITHOUT MEASURES

According to the guidelines for national reporting, projections in National Communications could also include any results from projections “without measures”, i.e. projections without the expected effects of measures implemented after a certain point in time.

The Effort Analysis from 2005 includes such a projection of Denmark's greenhouse gas emissions in 2008-2012 excluding measures which were implemented from 1990 to 2001. The results of the Measures Analysis are described in Annex B2.

Note that the analysis has been prepared on the basis of the previous projection which include the effect of measures described in Denmark's Third National Communication as the analysis was started in 2003.

As stated in Annex B2 in the Efforts Analysis, it has been estimated that average Danish emissions of greenhouse gases in 2008-2012 would have been 95.6 mill. tonnes CO₂ equivalents– i.e. about 15.6 mill. tonnes CO₂ equivalents greater that the previous projection with measures, if the measures initiated in the period 1990-2001 had not been initiated.

5.10 PROJECTIONS WITH ADDITIONAL MEASURES

In accordance with the reporting guidelines for National Communications, it is also possible to include information on greenhouse gas projections where the expected effects of additional policies and measures that are planned but still not implemented are included.

TABLE 5.18 PROJECTIONS OF DENMARK'S CO₂ EMISSIONS IN 2004 -2030 AND EMISSIONS OBSERVED IN 1990, 1995, 2000, AND 2003

Source: 1990-2003: The National Inventory Report (NIR), NERI, April 2005.
2004-2030: Projections of greenhouse gas emissions, Memorandum to the Danish EPA, NERI, May 2005

Click here to see Table 5.18

TABLE 5.19 PROJECTIONS OF DENMARK’S METHANE EMISSIONS 2004 – 30, EMISSIONS IN 1990, 1995, 2000 AND 2003 ARE OBSERVED

Source: 1990-2003: The National Inventory Report (NIR), NERI), April 2005.
2004-2030: Projection of greenhouse gas emissions, Memorandum to the Danish EPA, NERI, May 2005

Click here to see Table 5.19

TABLE 5.20 PROJECTIONS OF DENMARK’S NITROUS OXIDE EMISSIONS IN 2004-30, EMISSIONS IN 1990, 1995, 2000, AND 2003 ARE OBSERVED

Source: 1990-2003: The National Inventory Report (NIR), NERI, April 2005.
2004-2030: Projection of greenhouse gas emissions, Memorandum to the Danish EPA, NERI, May 2005.

Click here to see Table 5.20

TABLE 5.21 PROJECTIONS OF DENMARK’S INDUSTRIAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS IN 2004-30, EMISSIONS IN 1995, 2000, AND 2003 ARE OBSERVED

Source: 1990-2003: The National Inventory Report (NIR), NERI, April 2005
2004-2030: Projection of greenhouse gas emissions, Memorandum to the Danish EPA, NERI, May 2005

Click here to see Table 5.21

The Government Climate Strategy from 2003 contains a number of expected effects of supplemental policies and measures that are planned but still not implemented.

The Strategy does not, however, include a projection with additional measures included in such a way that effects of specific additional measures are included in a traditional manner.

Such a projection would also be incomplete. This is partly because the requirements of the Climate Strategy state that cost effectiveness is to be regularly reassessed as the costs of the possible further measures may change over time. Furthermore, from 1 January 2005, about half of Danish emissions of greenhouse gases are subject to allowance regulation in order to ensure that a predetermined goal is achieved without previously setting how the enterprises subject to allowance regulation are to meet these goals. With the allowance regulation, it is left to the individual businesses to decide whether market conditions make the buying of extra allowances or the implementation of emission-reducing measures - e.g. saving energy - most favourable.

With the coming into force of the Kyoto Protocol, demands have shifted from traditional projections of greenhouse gas emissions to more appropriate target-fulfilment projections, which is expressed by e.g. the inclusion of expected effects of funds already allocated to JI and CDM projects in Table 5.1.

If additional, specific cost-effective measures that should be included in future planning of reduction efforts are found in connection with The Policies and Measures Project (section 4.1.3), then up-dated projections can be made where expected effects of these additional measures are included.

5.11 GREENLAND AND THE FAROE ISLANDS

5.11.1 Greenland

With respect to the expectations concerning future greenhouse gas emissions in Greenland, the projections cover only electricity and district heat production. Since the Third National Communication, only small updates have been made to the projections for 2005 because of updated historical emissions figures for 2000-2003. The results are in Table 5.23.

The projections for CO₂ emissions from electricity and district heat production are based on a projected increase in energy consumption of 1% up to 2006, after which they will stagnate. The projections are also based on the fact that a hydropower station is under construction and expected to go into operation in 2008.

TABLE 5.22 PROJECTIONS OFF DENMARK'S TOTAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS ANDD REMOVALS IN 2004-2030, EMISSIONS IN 1990, 1995, 2000, AND 2003 ARE OBSERVED

Source: 1990-2003: National Inventory Report (NIR), NERI, April 2005.
2004-2030: Projection of greenhouse gas emissions, Memorandum to the Danish EPA, NERI, May 2005.

Click here to see Table 5.22

TABLE 5.23 GREENLANDD'S ACTUAL EMISSIONS OFF CO₂ FROM BURNING FOSSIL FUELS AS WELL AS EXPECTEDD EMISSIONS OFF PRODDUCTION OFF ELECTRICITY ANDD DISTRICT HEATING

Source: Nukissiorfiit.

5.11.2 The Faroe Islands

There are not at the present time any estimates of future greenhouse gas emissions on the Faroe Islands. In connection with preparation of the proposed energy policy action plan mentioned in Chapter 4, it is expected that in June 2006 there will be energy projections and associated greenhouse gas projections.

Notes

1 Environmental satellite models for ADAM, NERI Technical Report no. 148, DMU 1995

2 The transport sector's energy consumption and emissions, Road Directorat, 2002 (http://www.trm.dk/graphics/Synkron-Library/trafikministeriet/Publikationer/pdf/emissioner.pdf) (in Danish)

3 In november 2005 WEO2005 was published by the International Energy Agency. Updated Danish energy projections and GHG projections based on WEO2005 and other new information will by finalised in 2006.

4 Ozonlagsnedbrydende stoffer og drivhusgasserne HFC'er, PFC'er og SF₆, Miljøprojekt 987, Miljøstyrelsen, March 2005 (in Danish) (http://www.mst.dk/udgiv/publikationer/2005/87-7614-5468/html)

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