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Affaldsforbrænding i 2004 og 2008, mængder og kapaciteter 

Summary and conclusions

This report estimates the amount of waste suited for incineration and the waste incineration capacity in the years 2004 and 2008.

The generation of future waste amounts are based on 1999-data from the Danish waste registration system ISAG and the RISØ-model1, taking into account economic expectations from the Danish macroeconometric model ADAM (Annual Danish Aggregate Model).

Information has been gathered from the 31. Danish waste incineration plants about the current and future incineration capacity, number of incineration units, calorific value of waste, annual working time, authorisations and expected changes in capacity or other major changes scheduled before the year 2008.

Information about temporary storage and export of waste due to the lack of incineration capacity has also been gathered.

The future amounts of waste suited for incineration is compared with the expected incineration capacity in the years 2004 and 2008. The uncertainty in these expectations is emphasized.

The main conclusions are:
The annual incineration capacity of the 31 Danish waste incineration plants is recorded to be 2.7 mio. tons in the year 1999, which equals the amount of waste actually incinerated
The major part of the waste incinerated in the year 1999 – namely 1.7 mio. tons - originated from households.
In the year 1999, 64% of the waste suited for incineration was incinerated in plants producing heat as well as electricity and 36 % in plants producing only heat. In the year 1997 the similar figures were 57% and 43%.
In the year 2004 the amount of waste suited for incineration is expected to be 2.8 mio. tons and in the year 2008 it is expected to be 2.9 mio. tons. Included in these amount are the expected effect of the initiatives in the Danish action plan on waste "Waste 21" and the incineration of temporarily stored waste. The future amounts of meat- and bone meal, which should be incinerated due to permanent restrictions on its use are not included in these figures.
The effect of the initiatives in the Danish waste action plan "Waste 21" is expected to be 250,000 tons annually before 2004 and another 175,000 tons annually before 2008.
In the year 1999 the smallest plant had an annual waste incineration capacity of 12,000 tons and the largest had a capacity of 500,000 tons.

In the year 1999 the stock of waste stored temporarily increased by 88,000 tons. At the end of 1999 the amount of waste stored temporarily was approximately 600,000 tons.

1 The RISØ-model is a scenario model for the generation of waste. The model links the generation of various categories of waste to different economic activities.

 

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