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Vurdering af genanvendelsesmålsætninger i affaldsdirektivet

Summary and conclusions

Background and purpose

The revised Waste Directive to be implemented during 2010 sets new targets for the recycling of waste. The directive states that by 2020, at least 50% of the materials glass, metal, paper and plastics from households must be recycled. This implies that separate collection of these materials must be introduced by 2015. The basic idea behind this initiative is that it should form part of the overall efforts to achieve a recycling society in Europe with high resource efficiency.

It has not been possible on the basis of the previous knowledge foundation to conclude whether Denmark could live up to the goal of 50% recycling by 2020. With this project, therefore, the Danish Environmental Protection Agency wishes to contribute to a preliminary clarification of whether this is possible. The project sets out methods of calculation for the supply volumes, including the derived volumes of waste, for the materials glass, metal, paper and plastics. The calculations have been carried out for the years 2012 and 2020.

The study

The project utilises accessible data from Statistics Denmark, in combination with packaging data and data extractions from the Environmental Protection Agency's ISAG database. Data for product material composition and lifetimes are required in order to extrapolate the supply and waste volumes calculated for the relevant materials. Information has therefore been collected from several sources to complete the data. The project encompasses more than 300 product categories, for which the material composition and lifetimes have been determined. The supply volumes have also been determined for the period 2001-2007.

The project examines only that part of the supply (product consumption) in households for which the products contain at least one of the relevant materials (glass, metal, paper/cardboard and plastics). In the project, these materials are termed focus materials.

The study also encompasses the packaging which accompanies products or goods consumed by the households. The packaging is included for all products, regardless of whether or not the product that the packaging accompanies contains focus materials.

A simple model has been utilised to extrapolate waste quantities for 2012 and 2020. The model is designed to make it possible for interested parties to easily implement similar calculations on the existing data foundation – and with the same result.

Main conclusions

In principle, the study has two objectives: to demonstrate a method of calculation, and to establish whether Denmark can achieve the objective of 50% recycling by 2020.

The study shows that the method applied is workable for the calculation of future waste quantities. The method is simple, and it is easy to modify the assumptions and input data, as the number of product categories can be adjusted, and it is possible to extend the time series of historical supply data. It is therefore possible to perform alternative calculations, or update the model with more recent data. If the Waste Directive (European Commission) lays down final criteria for how product consumption by households should be defined, it may be necessary to adjust the completed calculations.

The study shows that it is possible to meet the recycling target in 2020, assuming that the relative composition of the materials glass, metal, paper and plastics does not change significantly before 2020. Alternative realistic development scenarios for two large product categories, however, show that the material composition may change in such a way as to make it necessary to establish more efficient collection schemes targeting, for example, plastics, for which the current collection efficiency is not very high.

The calculations also show that the definition of relevant product categories may have an influence on the achievement of the goal, and that the calculation of the volume of materials collected for recycling can also be crucial. Should toilet paper, for example, be included as part of the supply volume, or should it be omitted, because it does not usually end up as household waste, but in the wastewater? Should the extraction of metal from slag be included in the amounts collected for recycling?

Project results

Waste and composition

The project establishes an extrapolation profile (5-0-3%), which is applied to the historical time series covering supplies in households in the period 2001-2007.

The selected profile retropolates the supply by 5% from 2000 to 1975. The supply is extrapolated here by 0% for the period 2008-2010, and by 3% for the period from 2011 up to and including 2020. The result is shown in Table 0-1. The anticipated increase in the volume of waste for focus materials is 320,841 tonnes during the period, corresponding to an average annual growth rate of 1.1%.

The composition of the focus materials is expected to change over the period 2005 to 2020. The largest relative rise will probably occur within plastics. The trend is towards increasing amounts of plastic materials, and as the collection efficiency for plastics is significantly less than for the other focus materials, it will be necessary in future to focus on developing more efficient collection schemes for plastics if the collection efficiency is to be maintained.

Growth in all product categories has been extrapolated with the same percentage increase. The study has evaluated the effect of an alternative growth scenario for two large product categories. Trends in packaging volume and consumption trends for newspapers, magazines, advertising, etc., have been examined. These product categories are expected to show patterns of development which deviate from the overall trends.

Figure 0-1. Growth in waste volumes, 2020 (with and without changes in accordance with the extrapolation profile).

In the case of packaging, professionals in the field believe that the composition will change, since there will be a phasing out of glass, in particular, but also to some extent of metal. Consumption of newspapers, advertising and the like (measured by volume) is predicted to fall due to declining advertising. Calculations of these trends have been undertaken, and the changes in composition are illustrated in Figur 0-1.

The figure shows the trends in the volume of waste generated in 2005 and 2020, respectively, in accordance with the extrapolation profile used, and the volume of waste in 2020 assuming that the composition of the packaging is changed and the supply of newspapers and magazines falls in relation to 2005.

Recycling goals

The results of the study indicate that Denmark will apparently be able to meet the target of 50% recycling. This assessment is based on a collation of information on the collection of recyclable materials for recycling in 2005, 2012 and 2020, and the estimated waste volumes for the same years.

From Table 0-2 it can be deduced that the overall collection efficiency of focus materials from households in 2005 is estimated to be 51.8% (44.6 + 3.3 + 3.9). The underlying assumptions are that metal extraction from slag is included, and that the proportion of cars scrapped is 91%.

In the same way, the collection efficiency is calculated to be 50.1% for 2012 and 50.8% for 2020.

If the material composition changes in the period 2005-2020, producing, for example, a greater relative share of plastics, this will increase the demands on future collection systems, as the collection of plastics has traditionally been difficult.

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Version 1.0 September 2010, © Miljøstyrelsen.