Arbejdsrapport fra Miljøstyrelsen 35/2006 – En Model til Fremskrivning af Isag Data

En Model til Fremskrivning af Isag Data

Summary and conclusions

FRIDA (projection of ISAG data) is a model which projects the expected development in waste arisings by coupling historical trends in waste arisings with the Danish Ministry of Finance's projection of economic growth and the Danish Energy Authority's projection of energy generation. By coupling these different sets of data and modelling the development, the analysis takes into account expected changes in production technology and changes in consumption and production. The projection is analysed by the waste fractions recorded in the ISAG waste database. The model has been developed from the Scenario Model described in "A Scenario Model for the Generation of Waste”, Environmental Project no. 434, Danish EPA 1998.

Theoretically, FRIDA is a hybrid of a scenario model and an econometric model. For the large waste streams, the relationship between economic development and trends in waste is determined using an econometric analysis of the period 1994 to 2003. This means that for these waste streams an analysis is made to determine the relationship between economic activitiy in society and trends in waste arisings. For the other waste streams, the development is described in a scenario model in which constant waste coefficients are assumed; that is, the amount of waste per economic activity is assumed to be constant. Relative to the previous Scenario Model, which only included waste from primary sources, FRIDA also includes a simple determination of waste arisings from secondary sources, or residue fractions from treatment plants.

Trends in waste arisings until now

The analysis of the development from 1994 to 2003 shows that the amount of domestic waste from households has remained more or less constant, whereas private consumption has increased rather significantly, indicating a decoupling. By contrast, the amount of "various combustible waste" from industry has demonstrated a greater percentage increase than production. In particular, "various combustible waste" from "institutions, trade and offices" has increased considerably.

Another overall conclusion is that the amount of "various non-combustible waste" has been falling while the amount of waste collected for recycling has been generally increasing.

The analysis of historical trends in individual waste fractions is used to project arisings up till 2020.

Projection of waste arisings up till 2020

The projection shows that total waste arisings will increase by about 14 % from 2004 to 2020. If waste from both primary and secondary sources are included, this corresponds to an increase from about 14.4 million tonnes in 2004 to about 16.6 million tonnes in 2020. This means a decoupling of waste trends from economic development, since in the same period production is expected to increase about by 29 % and private consumption by about 37 %. A significant explanation for this decoupling is that the coal consumption at power plants is expected to fall, because coal is being replaced by other fuels. Slag and ashes etc. from power plants are therefore expected to halve.

Figure 5.3 Changes in total waste arisings from primary and secondary sources.

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Individual fractions and sources show very large differences in growth percentages. Increases are expected in the amount of the waste fraction "various combustible" and waste collected for recycling.

The amount of "various non-combustible" is expected to fall, e.g. due to increased waste separation at source, and a greater percentage share will therefore be recycled. This development very much reflects a continuation of trends observed for the period 1994 to 2003.

The projection of waste amounts from "institutions, trade and offices" shows that waste from this source is increasing considerably more than the other sources. The reason for this is greater economic activity but also a relative increase in waste arisings in addition to what can be ascribed to the increased activity.

The rate of waste going to recycling is not expected to change significantly. Where about 65 % of the waste was recycled in 2004, that figure is expected to be 65.5 % in 2020. Where 28 % was incinerated in 2004, the expected rate in 2020 is about 28.3. The percentage being landfilled is expected to fall from 8 % in 2004 to 6.2 % in 2020.

Figure 5.2. Trends in primary waste sent to processing, incineration and landfilling.

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The FRIDA projection and a projection using the old Scenario Model show considerable differences in results. The FRIDA projection shows a lower total increase in waste arisings and the breakdown by individual waste fractions in the two models also differs considerably.